"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
No it's not.
Last September, I was asking on this board: why won't the UK follow the paths of European countries that have seen cases soars?
The question should now be: why won't the UK follow the same path as other countries who have very high levels of vaccinations?
All the evidence is that, particularly for the double jabbed, there is nothing to fear from Delta. And that as we keep putting jabs in arms, the number of places where Covid can hide will keep falling.
Of course, the situation is completely different. Vaccinations change everything - I'm not completely shitting it as I was last year. I'm basically entirely optimistic that things are going to be okay as long as people are mildly sensible - no drastic action need be taken.
Im just finding it amazing that exactly the same "nothing to see here" arguments are being made with zero subtlety that were made last year. The same lack of understanding of what exponential means, the same failure to graps what worst case means.
Like we've now go to the state where people are claiming that no one is getting covid despite cases rising
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
This is basically the exit wave isn't it, the one we always knew would happen at some stage. Good that it's happening after we already have a high rate of vaccination, and happening in the early summer too.
One possibly beneficial side effect of having a wave like this now is that we see real world evidence of the vaccine effect, which should help policymakers to gauge how much of the suppression of the virus has been down to vaccines and how much to the earlier lockdown. Another possible long term benefit, for 2021 at least, is that a significant portion of the younger population may go into winter with protective antibodies against the delta variant which in turn should avoid them becoming a breeding ground to infect any elderly with waning old-school antibodies.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
You appear to be on the other end of the spectrum to Philip Thompson (you know, the chap with the LNC in Keyboard Warriorship), who believes we have "herd immunity".
The reality is we don't have herd immunity. We are not doomed either. This is my opinion as a one time scientist based upon what I can divine from the evidence that is out there. My speculation is that the Delta variant will be manageable and deaths from Covid will continue to trend downward. I could be wrong and Boris Johnson might be piling up the bodies, but who knows.
Scaring people with alarmist crap doesn't help anyone.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
The numbers in hospital and hospitalisation are, at the moment, fine. But the lines on the graphs are pointing the wrong way.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
No it's not.
Last September, I was asking on this board: why won't the UK follow the paths of European countries that have seen cases soars?
The question should now be: why won't the UK follow the same path as other countries who have very high levels of vaccinations?
All the evidence is that, particularly for the double jabbed, there is nothing to fear from Delta. And that as we keep putting jabs in arms, the number of places where Covid can hide will keep falling.
Of course, the situation is completely different. Vaccinations change everything - I'm not completely shitting it as I was last year. I'm basically entirely optimistic that things are going to be okay as long as people are mildly sensible - no drastic action need be taken.
Im just finding it amazing that exactly the same "nothing to see here" arguments are being made with zero subtlety that were made last year. The same lack of understanding of what exponential means, the same failure to graps what worst case means.
Like we've now go to the state where people are claiming that no one is getting covid despite cases rising
Nobody is claiming that no one is getting covid that I can see.
Cases can rise from a minimal base even when there's herd immunity in general, otherwise we'd end up with eradication much, much more easily. Eradication of a virus is not as easy as that.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
Talking of Bristol's Oliver:
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Highest point estimate yet (and the case figure to drop in for tomorrow is already 5,984). You don't really want to look where the straight line ends up by early July.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
You appear to be on the other end of the spectrum to Philip Thompson (you know, the chap with the LNC in Keyboard Warriorship), who believes we have "herd immunity".
The reality is we don't have herd immunity. We are not doomed either. This is my opinion as a one time scientist based upon what I can divine from the evidence that is out there. My speculation is that the Delta variant will be manageable and deaths from Covid will continue to trend downward. I could be wrong and Boris Johnson might be piling up the bodies, but who knows.
Scaring people with alarmist crap doesn't help anyone.
Unfortunately, that is wrong. Scaring people with alarmist crap servers the purposes of quite a few people
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
Doug thinks this is funny.
Maybe he's in a position to.
Many aren't. They are utterly desperate.
I don't think it's funny in the slightest. I personally am very concerned about how this is playing out. How do you manage to be wrong about absolutely everything you post on here?
There can't be any progress until someone shifts their red lines. Unless and until there is a technology solution actually I'm not sure there is much else to say.
Boris's tactics are obvious (leave inadequately and then allow events to force a change), both by how he is behaving and the fact that to leave at all there was no alternative deal at the time.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
You appear to be on the other end of the spectrum to Philip Thompson (you know, the chap with the LNC in Keyboard Warriorship), who believes we have "herd immunity".
The reality is we don't have herd immunity. We are not doomed either. This is my opinion as a one time scientist based upon what I can divine from the evidence that is out there. My speculation is that the Delta variant will be manageable and deaths from Covid will continue to trend downward. I could be wrong and Boris Johnson might be piling up the bodies, but who knows.
Scaring people with alarmist crap doesn't help anyone.
I don' think we are doomed, Nigel, at all. Vaccinations will sort it out. I am not a Zero Covid, Cosplay Sage, fanatic, but, equally, it is impossible to look at the trend lines at the moment without some concern. I don't want another lockdown, that's all.
If the government has already decided to delay the 21st June date, they ought to announce it as soon as possible in order to help businesses to make plans for the future, and not waste time planning to open on that date.
Edit: I see Doug has already posted the same thing.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
Not at all because once again
IN SEPTEMBER VERY FEW PEOPLE WERE VACCINATED
This talk of a third wave can only mean that the vaccinations, which were supposed to be our silver bullet, are not trusted.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
I was being serious. You yourself have pointed this out as being a problem today.
Okay, fine, it's all great, the increases currenly showing in hospitalisations will stop and we'll all be fine. Happy?
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
South Ayrshire has 81% first doses and 61% second doses.
When did that happen , it has been running at about 16 recently , hardly anyone in hospital and for all 3 Ayrshire regions together 8 in ICU max. PS: I see all parts Ayrshire have at least doubled over last week , now approx 40 cases
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
I think James Ward is using RO of Delta as 5 in his calculations.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
Talking of Bristol's Oliver:
Oliver Johnson @BristOliver Highest point estimate yet (and the case figure to drop in for tomorrow is already 5,984). You don't really want to look where the straight line ends up by early July.
And by early August, we'd be on 275,000 cases a day, and by early September 1.7m cases a day, if you increase the numbers by 60% week on week, but we know very well that that is not going to happen.
So bl**dy Neil Ferguson has gone back into doom/scare the Govt mode producing models which have huge variances based on effectiveness of vaccines against Indian variant. With the mandatory worst case scenarios assuming “not very effective”, despite all the real world evidence that they are very effective.
So bl**dy Neil Ferguson has gone back into doom/scare the Govt mode producing models which have huge variances based on effectiveness of vaccines against Indian variant. With the mandatory worst case scenarios assuming “not very effective”, despite all the real world evidence that they are very effective.
Frankly, P*SS OFF!
Ferguson and real world evidence don't ever appear in the same room frankly.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
You appear to be on the other end of the spectrum to Philip Thompson (you know, the chap with the LNC in Keyboard Warriorship), who believes we have "herd immunity".
The reality is we don't have herd immunity. We are not doomed either. This is my opinion as a one time scientist based upon what I can divine from the evidence that is out there. My speculation is that the Delta variant will be manageable and deaths from Covid will continue to trend downward. I could be wrong and Boris Johnson might be piling up the bodies, but who knows.
Scaring people with alarmist crap doesn't help anyone.
Unfortunately, that is wrong. Scaring people with alarmist crap servers the purposes of quite a few people
Normally I would agree, but then I realise this is said by the chap that referred to vaccines as "experimental"!! Take the beam out of thine own eye, anti-vax nutter!
Do we have numbers for how much the opening in May was expected to increase the tally of Covid cases? Assuming it was going up by x but has actually gone up by y, then the Indian/Delta variant increase is actually only y-x.....
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
Not at all because once again
IN SEPTEMBER VERY FEW PEOPLE WERE VACCINATED
This talk of a third wave can only mean that the vaccinations, which were supposed to be our silver bullet, are not trusted.
No it doesn't. It means that vaccinations do not work at all on people who have not yet received them, for a start. It also means that they are not binary "100%/0%" in those who have received them, but that factor does seem to be less than it was feared to be. Nevertheless, some will still end up in hospital (and in this category, it will be tilted strongly towards the most vulnerable, as those who previously had a c. 20% hospitalisations risk will now have a c. 1% hospitalisation risk. Should 5 million or so of the latter get exposed, we can expect 50,000 of them to be hospitalised.
Which is considerably better than the 1 million or so of them that might otherwise have been hospitalised, but still not something we want to happen all at once.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
You appear to be on the other end of the spectrum to Philip Thompson (you know, the chap with the LNC in Keyboard Warriorship), who believes we have "herd immunity".
The reality is we don't have herd immunity. We are not doomed either. This is my opinion as a one time scientist based upon what I can divine from the evidence that is out there. My speculation is that the Delta variant will be manageable and deaths from Covid will continue to trend downward. I could be wrong and Boris Johnson might be piling up the bodies, but who knows.
Scaring people with alarmist crap doesn't help anyone.
I don' think we are doomed, Nigel, at all. Vaccinations will sort it out. I am not a Zero Covid, Cosplay Sage, fanatic, but, equally, it is impossible to look at the trend lines at the moment without some concern. I don't want another lockdown, that's all.
Fair point, and well said, but as I say, alarmism is not helpful. It is understandable that people are worried and want to speculate, but perhaps let us be careful with being alarmist, or at the other end of the spectrum pretending or believing we are completely out of the woods..
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
Doug thinks this is funny.
Maybe he's in a position to.
Many aren't. They are utterly desperate.
Nobody thinks this is funny. Another lockdown will fuck with 20 million brains, and destroy many lives
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
You appear to be on the other end of the spectrum to Philip Thompson (you know, the chap with the LNC in Keyboard Warriorship), who believes we have "herd immunity".
The reality is we don't have herd immunity. We are not doomed either. This is my opinion as a one time scientist based upon what I can divine from the evidence that is out there. My speculation is that the Delta variant will be manageable and deaths from Covid will continue to trend downward. I could be wrong and Boris Johnson might be piling up the bodies, but who knows.
Scaring people with alarmist crap doesn't help anyone.
I don' think we are doomed, Nigel, at all. Vaccinations will sort it out. I am not a Zero Covid, Cosplay Sage, fanatic, but, equally, it is impossible to look at the trend lines at the moment without some concern. I don't want another lockdown, that's all.
Its certainly possible to look at the trend lines without some concern. That's what I'm doing and many others too.
There was always going to be an exit wave, but at 80% suppression due to antibodies already, higher in those who are vulnerable, this goose is already cooked.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still another few months of working from home bliss eh?
You are pondlife. I hate working from home and have stopped doing it as it was impacting my mental health. I'm posting this from the office before I head back to my semi-detached in about an hour with a very small yard if you're happy.
I HATE LOCKDOWNS AND I WANT THIS ONE LIFTED! This winter left me on the edge of suicidal thoughts. I want nothing but to head back to a full office and a few pints with my colleagues after work.
I want everyone to have a safe summer, weddings and all, but we are not going to as things stand because of this Government's incompetence. I am devastated that the 21 June unlocking cannot happen. I am not, like you, into prolonging the nations misery by (a) refusing to be vaccinated and (b) refusing to do anything else.
As for your "white working class" comment that is beneath contempt.
Politico.com - ‘Watch out for the cicadas’: Biden takes a hit to the neck as he departs for foreign trip The insects also temporarily grounded the charter plane meant to carry the press corps for the president’s European tour.
As President Joe Biden on Wednesday prepared to depart for his first foreign trip since assuming office — a week-long tour of western Europe during which he will engage both American allies and adversaries — the commander in chief came into contact with an emergent domestic rival on the tarmac of Joint Base Andrews.
Chatting with a uniformed military officer before boarding Air Force One, en route to a Royal Air Force station in England, the president could be seen swatting a sizable insect from his neck. Biden’s gesture interrupted his conversation with the service member as both men diverted their gazes to the ground, where the bug had apparently landed.
The president proceeded to flash a wave to reporters before strolling over to the assembled press pool with a warning: “Watch out for the cicadas.”
The episode marked the second time in less than 24 hours that the loud, red-eyed pest had intruded upon White House operations in the run-up to Biden’s European travel. On Tuesday night, the charter plane meant to carry the press corps for the president’s trip was grounded for more than five hours at Virginia’s Dulles International Airport due to mechanical problems caused by the cicadas.
Reporters finally landed late Wednesday morning, POLITICO reported, after circling in their plane and temporarily unable to touch down because British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was slated to arrive in his own aircraft at roughly the same time.
The intrusions from the insects come as potentially trillions of Brood X cicadas are surfacing from underground after 17 years, inundating as many as 15 states and currently staking their claim in the greater Washington, D.C., area. On Wednesday, however, their population decreased by exactly one, according to the president.
“I just got one,” Biden told reporters before venturing across the Atlantic. “It got me.” . . . .
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
All this talk of experimenting and needing to get as many doses etc. etc.
Isn't the reality that because COVID is so rare and so unlikely to kill people at the moment, there's no scientific basis for taking risks. Unlike back in January...
Of course, that also means we really ought to end lockdown.
If the calculation is based on Covid being so rare at the moment, then taking an action that would result in it not being anywhere near as rare makes a very big difference to the calculation.
80% of adults have antibodies already.
The virus is only ever going to remain rare. We have herd immunity. There will be some people who get infected, but the idea of an overwhelming widespread pandemic is non-existant now. It can't happen already.
Oh that is a relief. I have been listening to scientists and not been getting much reassurance. I knew I should have waited for the learned opinion of Philip Thompson Kw.D
If you've been listening to "Independent SAGE" scientists then I think we've identified your problem.
That 80% of adults have antibodies came from the ONS and scientists, not me.
There simply isn't the pool of uninfected people without antibodies that there was last December. 80% having antibodies is something we would have loved this time last year.
Has any scientist of repute suggested we are near "herd immunity" yet? That is a genuine question. I am pretty sure SAGE has not used this phrase yet, or if they have, I haven't heard them (excuse the pun).
The big big prob with your posts Philip is that you express lightly held opinion as though it is fact. That is one of the many reasons why I would guess you had minimal scientific training. It is also the reason why I take the piss. As I have suggested before, perhaps you could comment in the form of question, or if you are going to make an opinion, why not preface with "I am wondering if..." or "in my opinion..".
It is my opinion that you don't really know what you are talking about on this subject.
Philip has declared herd immunity repeatedly. In the time he has been doing so, both prevalence and case numbers have more than doubled already (and gone up by a factor of about 8 in the North West). Which is, of course, impossible. Especially as we still have some restrictions, so an R of under 1 with no restrictions should lead to a big reduction in cases and prevalence week-on-week with our remaining restrictions. This does not seem to be happening.
Cases have risen in limited towns where the vaccine has been refused by large amounts.
It hasn't surged nationwide. Hospitalisations are meaninglessly negligible in the rest of the country.
If towns like Newham or Bolton or Burnley refuse the vaccine they're never going to achieve herd immunity even if the nation as a whole has on average. So they'll get it the hard way, but that's not a reason to keep the rest of the nation locked down.
PS and I'm from the Northwest, but the Northwest varies dramatically. My town is not struggling precisely because vaccine takeup is high here.
South Ayrshire has 81% first doses and 61% second doses.
In terms of hospitalisations, how has that translated?
My wife's consultant called her yesterday and he said they had very few in hospital, he is one of main respiratory consultants in the major hospital. PS: whole of Scotland has 16 total in ICU
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
Despite what @contrarian says I really really hope that doesn't happen but I am not sure they are going to be left with any choice.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
I suspect it will be binned to some extent. It has to be. Full lifting of restrictions would appear reckless, so we will have only limited Freedom returned, but the government will try their best to deliver it to a large extent perhaps. It will be FINO.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
The restrictions are to prevent over-running of the health system. Hospital numbers, as opposed to cases, are little more than flat.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
No bats or pangolins were sold at Wuhan wet markets immediately before the coronavirus pandemic started, according to an Oxford-led study.
The research documents a menagerie of nearly 50,000 animals from 38 species, including badgers and boars, peacocks and pit vipers, traded at animal markets in the Chinese city from 2017 to November 2019.
But the team found 'no evidence' that a single bat or pangolin was kept at the market, leading them to conclude that these species - frequently blamed for Covid-19 - 'were not the likely spillover host at the source of the coronavirus'.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
The vaccines have kicked in. Otherwise we would be seeing rapid growth in hospitalisation numbers.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
Can we get Tim Martin, Rocco Forte and Andrew Lloyd-Webber camping in Downing St?
Edit: And @Cyclefree, if her daughter can give her the day off
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
I come back from sorting all sorts of family issues ..... stuffing a duvet cover for a start ...... and find some really silly misunderstandings of, in particular, Mr DS's post. At no point has he said he wants those weddings cancelled; all he has said is that it would be best if we..... and the brides and, dare I say it, the bride's mothers.... were told to postpone as soon as possible. Been there. I know what my wife, as bride's mother, and my daughter, as bride, would have wanted. As much clarity as possible. As soon as possible.
I think one thing is abundantly clear - amber list restrictions are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. We could probably green list all of europe now as their prevalence is lower (Or will be shortly) (Though demand a -ve test) whilst keeping India, much of Africa and south America on the red list.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
I didn't realise that only white working class girls get upset about dreams being shattered? Working class males not bothered? Middle and upper classes take it all on the chin. OK!
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
I come back from sorting all sorts of family issues ..... stuffing a duvet cover for a start ...... and find some really silly misunderstandings of, in particular, Mr DS's post. At no point has he said he wants those weddings cancelled; all he has said is that it would be best if we..... and the brides and, dare I say it, the bride's mothers.... were told to postpone as soon as possible. Been there. I know what my wife, as bride's mother, and my daughter, as bride, would have wanted. As much clarity as possible. As soon as possible.
Thanks OKC. I shouldn't have been but I was actually quite upset by the willful misunderstanding by @contrarian there. I hate lockdown and the idea that I am cheering it on is so upsetting I cannot tell you.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
I nominate @MaxPB be the last person he speaks to.
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Make them available in every pharmacy for whoever wants them. The impact on transmission of the virus is enough on its own to justify it.
Frankly they should never have made the decision to suspend in the first place, if there was any question about availability of alternative supply. Daft. Totally foreseeable.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
The vaccines have kicked in. Otherwise we would be seeing rapid growth in hospitalisation numbers.
No. Just a bit more time, perhaps a few weeks. Look at the cases. Exactly the same as last year September. So perhaps a couple of months. And then of course when we get to later summer we will expect a natural reoccurrence of cases because, well, winter. So best not to open up just in case.
And all we've got between that and now is Steve fucking Baker god help us.
What's the betting next time we have a covid press conference, 10 questions on summer holidays and how many people can I have at a BBQ if it rains part way through and how many people allowed in a single tent....and 0 questions on the fact 5 million vaccines are sitting in a warehouse going unused.
Weekly update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.
After a pause last week the rise in admissions has accelerated. The moving average is up 45% from its low point. The current rate of growth implies a doubling time of 3 weeks.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
I come back from sorting all sorts of family issues ..... stuffing a duvet cover for a start ...... and find some really silly misunderstandings of, in particular, Mr DS's post. At no point has he said he wants those weddings cancelled; all he has said is that it would be best if we..... and the brides and, dare I say it, the bride's mothers.... were told to postpone as soon as possible. Been there. I know what my wife, as bride's mother, and my daughter, as bride, would have wanted. As much clarity as possible. As soon as possible.
Thanks OKC. I shouldn't have been but I was actually quite upset by the willful misunderstanding by @contrarian there. I hate lockdown and the idea that I am cheering it on is so upsetting I cannot tell you.
I don't think you should get too upset by the rantings of an anti-vax nutter
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
I come back from sorting all sorts of family issues ..... stuffing a duvet cover for a start ...... and find some really silly misunderstandings of, in particular, Mr DS's post. At no point has he said he wants those weddings cancelled; all he has said is that it would be best if we..... and the brides and, dare I say it, the bride's mothers.... were told to postpone as soon as possible. Been there. I know what my wife, as bride's mother, and my daughter, as bride, would have wanted. As much clarity as possible. As soon as possible.
Thanks OKC. I shouldn't have been but I was actually quite upset by the willful misunderstanding by @contrarian there. I hate lockdown and the idea that I am cheering it on is so upsetting I cannot tell you.
You're welcome Mr S. Mr C reminds of something my headmaster once said about me after one episode "they were half-wits, but you (there were several of involved) are quarter-wits. @contrarian fits the 25% description IMHO!
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
Can we get Tim Martin, Rocco Forte and Andrew Lloyd-Webber camping in Downing St?
Edit: And @Cyclefree, if her daughter can give her the day off
Or maybe we could borrow Anders Tegnell for a couple of days. Lock Johnson in a room with him.
Big PSA from Mr Zoe, symptoms of Indian variant are much more cold like, soar throat, runny nose, far less of the death rattle cough or the loss of taste / smell.
Base R rate of 6...anybody not vaccinated, its coming for you.
Countries which are largely unvaccinated are in deep trouble.
As, I fear, are we at the moment.
Can you put a number on why you think that? (Expressed in terms of malign outcomes – hospitalisations and/or deaths rather than positive tests).
I am not being rude: simply put, I wonder why you are so fearful, yet the CEO of NHS Providers is in the media daily saying: "Look, these new cases aren't much of a problem, they are in the young and they are largely mild."
We see arguments on here all the time that that cases amongst the young don't matter that much but a sizeable number WILL lead to hospitalisation, even if fewer of those admitted die. We don't know what that hospitalisation rate is going to be with this variant. At the current rate we will, by the end of the month, have 50,000 cases a day, early January levels. In mid January we were admitting roughly 4,000 people per day into hospital. If the hospitalisation risk in the population overall has dropped by 75% by reason of vaccination we are still looking at 1,000 people per day in hospital by mid-July and, in truth, its likely to be more than that.
How many of these folk will be off work also? We are told there is a hospitality boom and Labour shortage. 50k a day with Covid won't help. Even if it doesn't matter.
21 June isn't happening and it would be best if the Government told us now - if only for the nations brides...
That’s an ugly post from you. I guess 12,500 cancelled weddings per week of delay seem trivial and frivolous to you.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Doug's having a little chortle in his spacious garden at all those working class white girls who are about to see their dreams shattered.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
I come back from sorting all sorts of family issues ..... stuffing a duvet cover for a start ...... and find some really silly misunderstandings of, in particular, Mr DS's post. At no point has he said he wants those weddings cancelled; all he has said is that it would be best if we..... and the brides and, dare I say it, the bride's mothers.... were told to postpone as soon as possible. Been there. I know what my wife, as bride's mother, and my daughter, as bride, would have wanted. As much clarity as possible. As soon as possible.
Thanks OKC. I shouldn't have been but I was actually quite upset by the willful misunderstanding by @contrarian there. I hate lockdown and the idea that I am cheering it on is so upsetting I cannot tell you.
I don't think you should get too upset by the rantings of an anti-vax nutter
Good point well made. I'm notoriously thin skinned anyway. I'm not sure why I spend so much time on here as a result!
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
Perhaps show some judgment in interpreting what is on the dashboard? Until herd immunity is achieved, the point of vaccination is not that cases will drop to zero, or even not rise, but that such cases will not result in unbearable levels of hospitalizations, morbidity or death.
Admittedly, those last 3 metrics lag the new case metric, but until we see any significant uptick in hospitalizations, and particularly severe cases, then we can be pretty happy with how the vaccination programme has achieved its primary goal.
Personally, I am looking at the same data and you and seeing reasons for considerable optimism, not pessimism.
I've just been for a business lunch in a sun drenched Fitzrovia with my sex toy flint agent. Lemon sole with brown shrimps and crisp seaweed. Really nice Pouilly Fume. The restaurant was buzzing and happy, apart from a few masks it all felt very normal. My agent told me some delicious gossip about a senior Cabinet Minister (my god, the booze). We talked of new projects, new life, new streams of income
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Which is the real world?
In the real world the covid pandemic is over and its time to lift lockdown, lose masks, lose restrictions and just have guidance for anyone that wants to follow it.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
Not at all because once again
IN SEPTEMBER VERY FEW PEOPLE WERE VACCINATED
This talk of a third wave can only mean that the vaccinations, which were supposed to be our silver bullet, are not trusted.
I don't think thats true. We are seeing a third wave of cases develop now, before our eyes. We are seeing much much smaller third waves of hospitalization and deaths (if at all for the latter). This is what the vaccines were supposed to do - break the link to serious illness, and they are. We are seeing most new cases in the unvaccinated population (under 25 because they've not had the chance and some in refusers). Its no surprise that this is happening. Its only a concern if it develops into a lot of hospital cases. Bolton and Bedford suggest that won't be the case.
Do you think we might all be getting a bit carried away?
The government has not indicated a delay to 21 June and though new cases are rising, hospitalisations at 125 per day (roughly) are only slightly up on what they were five or six weeks ago and miles lower than eight + weeks ago. And death numbers are tiny.
I suspect that when the road map exit was drawn up most of us, if we had a crystal ball, would have taken the current figures and would have fully expected 21 June to be adhered to.
A further consideration, of course, is that in the event of a delay political pressure would appear immediately to extend financial aid packages again.
We shouldn't assume that if the June 21 easing is put back, the public will turn against the govt. In general, they've been *more* pro-lockdown than the govt has and appearing to act responsibly rather than recklessly has generally gone down well.
It was notable in the Portugal SNAFU when R4 tried to vox pop passengers they were a lot more phlegmatic "It was a risk, but we decided to take it, it hasn't worked out" than Travel Trade commentators "end of days"....
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Are you tempted to get the vaccine?
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
Can we get Tim Martin, Rocco Forte and Andrew Lloyd-Webber camping in Downing St?
Edit: And @Cyclefree, if her daughter can give her the day off
Or maybe we could borrow Anders Tegnell for a couple of days. Lock Johnson in a room with him.
Locking Johnson in a room reads like a VERY GOOD IDEA.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
The choice that Doug and others are presenting you of the 'safety' of lockdown, versus the 'risk' of freedom, is of course an utterly and completely false one.
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
Re your last sentence the only insane thing is to refuse a vaccination
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
Hopson!
Is poor Chris going to become yet another casualty of the PB misspellers??
Weekly update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.
After a pause last week the rise in admissions has accelerated. The moving average is up 45% from its low point. The current rate of growth implies a doubling time of 3 weeks.
Admissions is misleading if people are spending less time in hospital. Hence how the number of people in hospital dropped today despite admissions running well ahead of the 14 day average.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Well said - and the virus is rapidly running out of people to infect. We're already at 80% of adults with antibodies and millions more vaccinated per week. The virus is going to burn out and hit a herd immunity wall very rapidly.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
Hopson!
Is poor Chris going to become yet another casualty of the PB misspellers??
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
Will we all need boosters against recent and future variants ?
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
Can we get Tim Martin, Rocco Forte and Andrew Lloyd-Webber camping in Downing St?
Edit: And @Cyclefree, if her daughter can give her the day off
Or maybe we could borrow Anders Tegnell for a couple of days. Lock Johnson in a room with him.
Locking Johnson in a room reads like a VERY GOOD IDEA.
Perhaps they could lock him in a room every other month and see whether government is affected either positively or negatively. He could use the time to write witty polemics or another dreadful political history biography, or even a trashy novel involving archaeology. Everyone is a winner.
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Boris has a very difficult job coming up in the next few days working out the messaging before Monday. The public expected that the vaccines and the early 2021 lockdown would get us out of this.
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
He should save time by not expending the effort on messaging and just do what the last person he spoke to says.
Can we get Tim Martin, Rocco Forte and Andrew Lloyd-Webber camping in Downing St?
Edit: And @Cyclefree, if her daughter can give her the day off
Or maybe we could borrow Anders Tegnell for a couple of days. Lock Johnson in a room with him.
We did get him with Johnson last September. It didn't work out well.
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R0 of 4 would require 75% to hit herd immunity wouldn't it?
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R6 is frankly terrifying. it suggests the Indian variant will rip through every unvaccinated or partly vaccinated country, in the end. America, Europe, Asia, Africa
Well, talking about antibodies and efficacy, here's a crude calculation that upset people before.
So, we have 80.3% of the adults with antibodies. That leaves 15 million or so below 18. Assume that 15% of them have had the bug (for the sake of the number. That gives you 65% of the total population with antibodies.
Down the left side we have possible R numbers for COVID, without any protection. The second row from the top is the efficacy of those antiibodies in preventing spread.
Assuming that we can just multiply the numbers together is probably crude, but an interesting guesstimate.
If I am reading your table correctly, and the Delta variant has an R0 of about 4, and our population is 65% protected, then the variant should be spreading about as fast as the original SARS-CoV-2 virus (Wuhan strain) before any vaccination or naturally acquired immunity (but, of course, in a much less vulnerable population). Is that right?
Wasn't original COVID 3.5 or so?
Mrs ZOE says Indian variant is 6.
Original COVID was 2.6
Mr ZOE says 4 in his video i.e. Indian variant is 50% more.
R0 of 4 would require 75% to hit herd immunity wouldn't it?
And we're at 80% of adults 🤔
Sorry wasn't clear, R0 = 4 for original COVID, R0 = 6 for Indian variant.
"Malmesbury's charts have barely any red on them, this is over" "Sure there's some localised cases in the North but Covid isnover" we are just short a "Yeah Kent is high but you should expect that level of variability"
Pretty much.
There is no scientific basis for your speculation. Your baseless pessimistic posts are beginning to get me a little triggered.
I'm essentially posting stuff from people on Twitter (Oliver Johnson and James Ward mostly) who are no friends of Indie Sage. What am I supposed to do - say "yeah, everythings okay" when we are at a case increase of 66% week on week sitting right on the Govt's dashboard?.
But, the figures are demonstrating, as Chris Hopley has pointed out, that mass vaccination is now providing a very solid firewall against serious illness.
Will we all need boosters against recent and future variants ?
We have our flu vaccine every year and think nothing of it, maybe the same will be true for covid
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Even that is manageable if it blows through the local population quite quickly because it hits a near impenetrable wall. Look at Bolton, and that was hardly a stellar model of a vaccinated population. And they were hit weeks ago as well. Vaccination protection elsewhere was better then, let alone now.
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Growing is fine, so long as the number of people in hospital grows at only a modest rate.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Well said - and the virus is rapidly running out of people to infect. We're already at 80% of adults with antibodies and millions more vaccinated per week. The virus is going to burn out and hit a herd immunity wall very rapidly.
I thought according to you we already have "herd immunity"? I thought that was an article of your faith?
Looking at the rapid rise in cases... I'm wondering if govt might have to reintroduce some restrictions for a period. We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
For what purpose? To stop case numbers rising? We could stop case numbers rising by reducing testing with the same effect. What matters is hospitals and, as Chris Hobson pointed out, the profile and nature of people attending hospitals.
To reduce hospitalizations. I think they will grow over the next few weeks. If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
They will grow. But, the evidence so far suggests that the rate of growth will be slow, and well within the capacity of the NHS to cope
Comments
Im just finding it amazing that exactly the same "nothing to see here" arguments are being made with zero subtlety that were made last year. The same lack of understanding of what exponential means, the same failure to graps what worst case means.
Like we've now go to the state where people are claiming that no one is getting covid despite cases rising
One possibly beneficial side effect of having a wave like this now is that we see real world evidence of the vaccine effect, which should help policymakers to gauge how much of the suppression of the virus has been down to vaccines and how much to the earlier lockdown. Another possible long term benefit, for 2021 at least, is that a significant portion of the younger population may go into winter with protective antibodies against the delta variant which in turn should avoid them becoming a breeding ground to infect any elderly with waning old-school antibodies.
The reality is we don't have herd immunity. We are not doomed either. This is my opinion as a one time scientist based upon what I can divine from the evidence that is out there. My speculation is that the Delta variant will be manageable and deaths from Covid will continue to trend downward. I could be wrong and Boris Johnson might be piling up the bodies, but who knows.
Scaring people with alarmist crap doesn't help anyone.
Maybe he's in a position to.
Many aren't. They are utterly desperate.
Cases can rise from a minimal base even when there's herd immunity in general, otherwise we'd end up with eradication much, much more easily. Eradication of a virus is not as easy as that.
Oliver Johnson
@BristOliver
Highest point estimate yet (and the case figure to drop in for tomorrow is already 5,984). You don't really want to look where the straight line ends up by early July.
Boris's tactics are obvious (leave inadequately and then allow events to force a change), both by how he is behaving and the fact that to leave at all there was no alternative deal at the time.
I'm assuming they will be mainly youngsters.
Edit: I see Doug has already posted the same thing.
I dare say they won’t to the families and friends involved.
Stupid post.
Get as much AZ as we can, in any arm, of any age
We are in a final race, but it is quite critical
Okay, fine, it's all great, the increases currenly showing in hospitalisations will stop and we'll all be fine. Happy?
NEW Westminster Voting Intention
Conservatives have a 12pt lead over Labour
Con 44% (+2)
Lab 32% (=)
LDM 8% (-1)
Green 5% (=)
SNP 4% (=)
Other 7% (=)
4-6 June
(Changes from 28-30 May)
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1402648992710803460?s=20
PS: I see all parts Ayrshire have at least doubled over last week , now approx 40 cases
If I was a Tory I would be more concerned about if 21st gets binned.
Still, another few months of working from home bliss eh?
Frankly, P*SS OFF!
It means that vaccinations do not work at all on people who have not yet received them, for a start.
It also means that they are not binary "100%/0%" in those who have received them, but that factor does seem to be less than it was feared to be. Nevertheless, some will still end up in hospital (and in this category, it will be tilted strongly towards the most vulnerable, as those who previously had a c. 20% hospitalisations risk will now have a c. 1% hospitalisation risk. Should 5 million or so of the latter get exposed, we can expect 50,000 of them to be hospitalised.
Which is considerably better than the 1 million or so of them that might otherwise have been hospitalised, but still not something we want to happen all at once.
Oh dear
There was always going to be an exit wave, but at 80% suppression due to antibodies already, higher in those who are vulnerable, this goose is already cooked.
I'm posting this from the office before I head back to my semi-detached in about an hour with a very small yard if you're happy.
I HATE LOCKDOWNS AND I WANT THIS ONE LIFTED! This winter left me on the edge of suicidal thoughts. I want nothing but to head back to a full office and a few pints with my colleagues after work.
I want everyone to have a safe summer, weddings and all, but we are not going to as things stand because of this Government's incompetence. I am devastated that the 21 June unlocking cannot happen. I am not, like you, into prolonging the nations misery by (a) refusing to be vaccinated and (b) refusing to do anything else.
As for your "white working class" comment that is beneath contempt.
The insects also temporarily grounded the charter plane meant to carry the press corps for the president’s European tour.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/09/cicadas-biden-eu-trip-492446
As President Joe Biden on Wednesday prepared to depart for his first foreign trip since assuming office — a week-long tour of western Europe during which he will engage both American allies and adversaries — the commander in chief came into contact with an emergent domestic rival on the tarmac of Joint Base Andrews.
Chatting with a uniformed military officer before boarding Air Force One, en route to a Royal Air Force station in England, the president could be seen swatting a sizable insect from his neck. Biden’s gesture interrupted his conversation with the service member as both men diverted their gazes to the ground, where the bug had apparently landed.
The president proceeded to flash a wave to reporters before strolling over to the assembled press pool with a warning: “Watch out for the cicadas.”
The episode marked the second time in less than 24 hours that the loud, red-eyed pest had intruded upon White House operations in the run-up to Biden’s European travel. On Tuesday night, the charter plane meant to carry the press corps for the president’s trip was grounded for more than five hours at Virginia’s Dulles International Airport due to mechanical problems caused by the cicadas.
Reporters finally landed late Wednesday morning, POLITICO reported, after circling in their plane and temporarily unable to touch down because British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was slated to arrive in his own aircraft at roughly the same time.
The intrusions from the insects come as potentially trillions of Brood X cicadas are surfacing from underground after 17 years, inundating as many as 15 states and currently staking their claim in the greater Washington, D.C., area. On Wednesday, however, their population decreased by exactly one, according to the president.
“I just got one,” Biden told reporters before venturing across the Atlantic. “It got me.” . . . .
We just need to buy a bit more time until the vaccinations have kicked in.
PS: whole of Scotland has 16 total in ICU
And indeed the vaccines have helped enormously, we would be heading for Dec/Jan rerun without them.
But 21 June isn't happening now, certainly for 4 weeks maybe longer.
If so 85/1 for Golden Boot looks a bit large I think.
THE Scottish Government has announced plans to extend emergency coronavirus laws by six months.
Deputy First Minister John Swinney said it is "clear" some provisions will be required after the current expiry date of September 30.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19360792.swinney-confirms-plans-extend-emergency-coronavirus-laws-scotland/?ref=twtrec
The research documents a menagerie of nearly 50,000 animals from 38 species, including badgers and boars, peacocks and pit vipers, traded at animal markets in the Chinese city from 2017 to November 2019.
But the team found 'no evidence' that a single bat or pangolin was kept at the market, leading them to conclude that these species - frequently blamed for Covid-19 - 'were not the likely spillover host at the source of the coronavirus'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9668695/No-bats-pangolins-sold-Wuhan-wet-markets-pandemic-started-Oxford-study-says.html
Edit: And @Cyclefree, if her daughter can give her the day off
At no point has he said he wants those weddings cancelled; all he has said is that it would be best if we..... and the brides and, dare I say it, the bride's mothers.... were told to postpone as soon as possible.
Been there. I know what my wife, as bride's mother, and my daughter, as bride, would have wanted. As much clarity as possible. As soon as possible.
We could probably green list all of europe now as their prevalence is lower (Or will be shortly) (Though demand a -ve test) whilst keeping India, much of Africa and south America on the red list.
If they don't - then I guess we are fine.
Make them available in every pharmacy for whoever wants them. The impact on transmission of the virus is enough on its own to justify it.
And then I come back to PB and we are headed for a fourth lockdown.
Which is the real world?
And all we've got between that and now is Steve fucking Baker god help us.
Now there is no doubt. Inject everyone with any vaccine we have
After a pause last week the rise in admissions has accelerated. The moving average is up 45% from its low point. The current rate of growth implies a doubling time of 3 weeks.
Regional picture follows. 1/3 https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1402652224128532488/photo/1
Economically, staying in any form of lockdown whatever beyond 21 June is desperately reckless and risky gamble.
Its ahuge gamble with the lives and businesses of countless thousands in hospitality and other service industries in the short term.
In the long term its an utterly reckless and desperate gamble with the wider economy, as all lockdowns were and are.
I haven't begun to talk about the devastating effect on the morale and the mental health of very many of postponement. Or the potential threat to civil order as the contract between this government and its citizens starts to break down, as it manifestly IS starting to break down.
Carrying on lockdown after 21 June is an act of the insane, and only an insane and totally unhinged government would consider it.
@contrarian fits the 25% description IMHO!
Admittedly, those last 3 metrics lag the new case metric, but until we see any significant uptick in hospitalizations, and particularly severe cases, then we can be pretty happy with how the vaccination programme has achieved its primary goal.
Personally, I am looking at the same data and you and seeing reasons for considerable optimism, not pessimism.
The government has not indicated a delay to 21 June and though new cases are rising, hospitalisations at 125 per day (roughly) are only slightly up on what they were five or six weeks ago and miles lower than eight + weeks ago. And death numbers are tiny.
I suspect that when the road map exit was drawn up most of us, if we had a crystal ball, would have taken the current figures and would have fully expected 21 June to be adhered to.
A further consideration, of course, is that in the event of a delay political pressure would appear immediately to extend financial aid packages again.
We shouldn't assume that if the June 21 easing is put back, the public will turn against the govt. In general, they've been *more* pro-lockdown than the govt has and appearing to act responsibly rather than recklessly has generally gone down well.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1402653784308867076?s=20
It was notable in the Portugal SNAFU when R4 tried to vox pop passengers they were a lot more phlegmatic "It was a risk, but we decided to take it, it hasn't worked out" than Travel Trade commentators "end of days"....
Genuine question. In your position, I would be quite scared right now.
10% week over week is an irrelevancy: it means it takes three months to quadruple the number of people in hospital and by that point everyone is double jabbed anyway.
Even 20% is quite manageable.
But you don't want to be at 30 or 40% a week.
Is poor Chris going to become yet another casualty of the PB misspellers??
It didn't work out well.
And we're at 80% of adults 🤔
https://www.theonion.com/the-onion-s-guide-to-critical-race-theory-1847056450?rev=1623189967923&utm_campaign=TheOnion&utm_content=1623238292&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitter