The Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism index jumps to its highest level for six years – politicalbetting.c

First

Liftoff for the vaccine rocket under the economy.

Highest level of optimism since 2015, if any amateur psephologists want to understand how the PM a won an unexpected majority in that year.

How long till Portugal is back on the green list? They’re probably going to suffer from the Govt not wanting to look like idiots...

dixiedean said:

31% think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months?
Who the heck are these people?
Short of a war, new pandemic, asteroid strike or tsunami it can't possibly be worse than the past year.
There are, of course, aliens...

Does people who are worried about when furlough ends?

Ah the heady days of when George Osborne CH was Chancellor.

(FPT)

Pagan2 said:

Sandpit said:

How’s about we go back to what Dr. King taught us, and treat people according to the content of their character rather than the colour of their skin?

Because this country by an large isnt all that racist anymore, yes we are still rooting out pockets of it but the truth is all those racism campaigners were virtually out of a job so they have latched on to a new money spinner with glee. They are just larcenous arseholes that would rather try and spin a fairy tale than get a proper job

I can't believe that this country is not racist. The windrush deportations were, to my mind, evidence of outrageous institutional racism - a whole bureaucracy was set up with the apparent unspoken goal of deporting poor black people.

I really hoped that the Black Lives Matter protests would start focussing on things like this rather than problems with police shootings which really do not apply in this country. These injustices still go on; children basically lose their fathers to destitution in foreign countries after they have completed their prison sentences. They are effectively banished under blair era legislation that gives vast powers to the state which are simply exercised in an inhumane way.

Ask yourself - why should people with afro carribbean heritage suffer this fate whereas ethnic white people do not? How is that fair?

There are people, disproportionately black people, that actually suffer banishment and get their lives ruined. No one supports them because they are drug dealers or have committed terrible crimes, but they still have families, and lives are actually ruined in tangible ways (ie they become destitute in third world countries with no local networks to support them), rather than suffering PTSD from microagressions or misspoken language or whatever.

You will find many people posting on here who are oestensibly on my side of the argument (I am definetely not woke) who claim not to be racist but then celebrate the deportation of dual national criminals. I just think this, as much as wokeness, marks the decline of our civilisation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Liftoff for the vaccine rocket under the economy.

Yeah, I've made a ton of savings because of WFH.

I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.

#Altruistic

The Northampton shoe industry will have to expand to cope.

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

alex_ said:

How long till Portugal is back on the green list? They’re probably going to suffer from the Govt not wanting to look like idiots...

That ship has sailed long ago, if it ever docked.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

And the General Strike.

..and yet this new pollster, reminiscent of carpets has the Tories doing worse....

Anabobazina said:

dixiedean said:

31% think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months?
Who the heck are these people?
Short of a war, new pandemic, asteroid strike or tsunami it can't possibly be worse than the past year.
There are, of course, aliens...

And the weather in Camden Town. Don’t forget that all important variable.

I wonder if there are still any Albanian taxi drivers knocking about or if they have all gone home?

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

And the General Strike.

I didn’t realise until I was looking at historic railway usage that the general strike didn’t last all that long. It had an impact on passenger journeys, but not that much and certainly nothing like COVID.

The General Strike lasted for nine days. The coal lock out which sparked it lasted for several months, until the end of November.

darkage said:

(FPT)

Pagan2 said:

Sandpit said:

How’s about we go back to what Dr. King taught us, and treat people according to the content of their character rather than the colour of their skin?

Because this country by an large isnt all that racist anymore, yes we are still rooting out pockets of it but the truth is all those racism campaigners were virtually out of a job so they have latched on to a new money spinner with glee. They are just larcenous arseholes that would rather try and spin a fairy tale than get a proper job

I can't believe that this country is not racist. The windrush deportations were, to my mind, evidence of outrageous institutional racism - a whole bureaucracy was set up with the apparent unspoken goal of deporting poor black people.

I really hoped that the Black Lives Matter protests would start focussing on things like this rather than problems with police shootings which really do not apply in this country. These injustices still go on; children basically lose their fathers to destitution in foreign countries after they have completed their prison sentences. They are effectively banished under blair era legislation that gives vast powers to the state which are simply exercised in an inhumane way.

Ask yourself - why should people with afro carribbean heritage suffer this fate whereas ethnic white people do not? How is that fair?

There are people, disproportionately black people, that actually suffer banishment and get their lives ruined. No one supports them because they are drug dealers or have committed terrible crimes, but they still have families, and lives are actually ruined in tangible ways (ie they become destitute in third world countries with no local networks to support them), rather than suffering PTSD from microagressions or misspoken language or whatever.

You will find many people posting on here who are oestensibly on my side of the argument (I am definetely not woke) who claim not to be racist but then celebrate the deportation of dual national criminals. I just think this, as much as wokeness, marks the decline of our civilisation.

There's very little racism in the UK compared to almost anywhere else. It's interesting how it was just when most of the real racists died out, about 10 years ago, that the whole Woke thing started.

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

And the General Strike.

I didn’t realise until I was looking at historic railway usage that the general strike didn’t last all that long. It had an impact on passenger journeys, but not that much and certainly nothing like COVID.

The General Strike lasted for nine days. The coal lock out which sparked it lasted for several months, until the end of November.

But presumably the railways managed to get enough coal during that time?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Liftoff for the vaccine rocket under the economy.

Yeah, I've made a ton of savings because of WFH.

I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.

#Altruistic

Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.

Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

In the UK the Twenties didn't roar like they did across the pond, and while the USA was in the Great Depression of the Thirties, from 1932 the British economy did boom.

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

Floater said:

stodge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

In the past month the share of adult population to have received at least one dose of vaccine have gone from 66.6% to 76.8%
That means there's 30% fewer unvaccinated adults now than there were a month ago.

In the past month the share of adult population to have received two doses of vaccine have gone from 31.8% to 53%
That means there's 31% fewer adults without two doses now than there were a month ago.

Considering that vaccinations are being prioritised based upon need there's frankly ever fewer and fewer people left to be infected, even if cases increase.

Some significant local variations, Philip.

In Newham, 120,000 adults (48%) over the age of 30 have yet to receive a first vaccination. That's not an insignificant number and while, to now, the Borough has managed to dodge most of the infection surges, I can't believe our "luck" will last forever.

What is stopping them being vaccinated??

Stupidity.

No, every time they try and get a vaccination, a hypersonic UFO gets in the way....

Is that Jezza's excuse?

Well, if its a choice between

1) They chose not to and are responsible as moral agents
2) It was aliens

Which do you think he would chose?

Jews.

All of them?

stodge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

I do hope not. I don't want to have to learn the Charleston or the Mashed Potato or to deal with "flappers". In any case, the "roaring twenties" didn't end well for many people.

You are doing nothing to dissuade me of my image of you as a misanthropic party-pooper!

Andy_JS said:

darkage said:

(FPT)

Pagan2 said:

Sandpit said:

How’s about we go back to what Dr. King taught us, and treat people according to the content of their character rather than the colour of their skin?

Because this country by an large isnt all that racist anymore, yes we are still rooting out pockets of it but the truth is all those racism campaigners were virtually out of a job so they have latched on to a new money spinner with glee. They are just larcenous arseholes that would rather try and spin a fairy tale than get a proper job

I can't believe that this country is not racist. The windrush deportations were, to my mind, evidence of outrageous institutional racism - a whole bureaucracy was set up with the apparent unspoken goal of deporting poor black people.

I really hoped that the Black Lives Matter protests would start focussing on things like this rather than problems with police shootings which really do not apply in this country. These injustices still go on; children basically lose their fathers to destitution in foreign countries after they have completed their prison sentences. They are effectively banished under blair era legislation that gives vast powers to the state which are simply exercised in an inhumane way.

Ask yourself - why should people with afro carribbean heritage suffer this fate whereas ethnic white people do not? How is that fair?

There are people, disproportionately black people, that actually suffer banishment and get their lives ruined. No one supports them because they are drug dealers or have committed terrible crimes, but they still have families, and lives are actually ruined in tangible ways (ie they become destitute in third world countries with no local networks to support them), rather than suffering PTSD from microagressions or misspoken language or whatever.

You will find many people posting on here who are oestensibly on my side of the argument (I am definetely not woke) who claim not to be racist but then celebrate the deportation of dual national criminals. I just think this, as much as wokeness, marks the decline of our civilisation.

There's very little racism in the UK compared to almost anywhere else. It's interesting how it was just when most of the real racists died out, about 10 years ago, that the whole Woke thing started.

But if that is true what was windrush? Do you really think it was all bureaucratic error?
How can it be right to have double punishment for one category of dual national criminal (ie prison term + banishment rather than just a prison term)?

(I do agree that this is possibly the least racist country in the world, based on my own experience of other countries)

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Liftoff for the vaccine rocket under the economy.

Yeah, I've made a ton of savings because of WFH.

I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.

#Altruistic

Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.

Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.

What will probably happen is that this will start to show up in the statistics in 12-24 months time, and Labour will misread things (again) and attack the Government viscerally for it.

It won't work, because people will put it down to the pandemic and changing working patterns and behaviours.

Politico.com - Biden’s vaccine push fails to gain traction with African Americans
Less than a quarter of Black Americans had received their first Covid-19 shot as of June 3. That's less than other racial and ethnic groups tracked by the CDC.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/07/vaccine-equity-black-americans-biden-491973

The Biden administration knew the key to a successful Covid vaccination campaign would be reaching the most vulnerable populations. But more than five months in, even a blueprint that’s worked with other ethnic and racial groups isn’t doing enough to win over Black Americans.

Less than a quarter of Black Americans had received their first Covid-19 shot as of June 7 based on available federal data, amid a weeks-long stagnation that has defied the government’s ramped-up effort to accelerate vaccinations and reach the nation’s most vulnerable communities.

The slowdown has put Black Americans behind the pace set over the past month by other racial and ethnic groups tracked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. . . .

The White House has intensified the equity push in the past month in particular, as it races to hit President Joe Biden’s July 4 deadline for getting 70 percent of U.S. adults to take at least one dose of a Covid vaccine.

That initiative has shown signs of success. Over the last two weeks, Hispanic Americans accounted for more than a quarter of total vaccinations, CDC data show, a sharp acceleration from just a month ago, when they ranked as the least-vaccinated demographic group. Asian Americans over that period have also accounted for a greater share of shots, compared with their proportion of the overall population.

The administration only has race and ethnicity information for roughly 62 percent of the nation’s total vaccinations, a data gap that’s further complicated the equity effort.

But by available measures, the government’s outreach has yet to gain similar traction among Black communities . . . .

Health experts cite myriad factors: Ingrained skepticism of a federal government that’s historically failed minorities when it comes to public health, difficulties getting the transportation or time off to seek out a vaccine or a lack of community outreach, among others.

At the same time, Black people in several areas have accounted for an increasing proportion of Covid-19 cases and deaths — including in Washington, D.C., where government data indicate they’ve made up nearly 8 in 10 new cases and close to 90 percent of deaths since May 1.

“We all realize that this is the critical moment in the struggle,” said Reed Tuckson, founder of the Black Coalition Against Covid-19, which is coordinating with the administration on its vaccination campaign. “It’s going to take a lot of effort from a lot of different places.”

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dixiedean said:

31% think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months?
Who the heck are these people?
Short of a war, new pandemic, asteroid strike or tsunami it can't possibly be worse than the past year.
There are, of course, aliens...

Does people who are worried about when furlough ends?

An inability then to distinguish "My personal circumstances" from "the economy".
That 31% might reckon they will be worse off personally? That is believable.

Anecdata is sometimes useful.

Indeed pent up spending is happening now, but will it be a flash in the pan? While we wait for Furlough to end, it is hard tell.

As a general rule, I invest on the basis that things are rarely as bad as they seem or ever as good as they seem.

Just dropping in, but of course there's optimism. We're coming out of an artificially induced, economically speaking, depression, and the sun is shining. We're going to get back to a bit below where we were before Brexit and people are going to say hurrah.

Philip_Thompson said:

squareroot2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

Floater said:

stodge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

In the past month the share of adult population to have received at least one dose of vaccine have gone from 66.6% to 76.8%
That means there's 30% fewer unvaccinated adults now than there were a month ago.

In the past month the share of adult population to have received two doses of vaccine have gone from 31.8% to 53%
That means there's 31% fewer adults without two doses now than there were a month ago.

Considering that vaccinations are being prioritised based upon need there's frankly ever fewer and fewer people left to be infected, even if cases increase.

Some significant local variations, Philip.

In Newham, 120,000 adults (48%) over the age of 30 have yet to receive a first vaccination. That's not an insignificant number and while, to now, the Borough has managed to dodge most of the infection surges, I can't believe our "luck" will last forever.

What is stopping them being vaccinated??

Stupidity.

No, every time they try and get a vaccination, a hypersonic UFO gets in the way....

Is that Jezza's excuse?

Well, if its a choice between

1) They chose not to and are responsible as moral agents
2) It was aliens

Which do you think he would chose?

Jews.

All of them?

Eh?

I'm saying that's what Jezza would choose. Without it even being an option, that's what he'd choose.

What about "Jewish Aliens"?

turbotubbs said:

To stray off topic... Cristina Pagel in the guardian is now putting her hopes on the vaccination protection falling incredibly quickly in older people, specifically suggesting that for the most vulnerable it’s now at least three months since their last jab. I think this is terrible science. Reinfection after previous bought of Covid has been negligible, and there is every reason to think that vaccination will give as good, if not better protection. I think her belief is once more based on antibody titres falling, and neglecting that this is not the whole immune system. If this being peer review rather than paid by the guardian, it would be picked up on. It really does look like she, and others, are working from their worst case scenario hopes and trying to find a way it could happen.

The Guardian really will print anything if there’s a possibility of it owning the Tories. It’s standards don’t seem to be terribly high.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Liftoff for the vaccine rocket under the economy.

Yeah, I've made a ton of savings because of WFH.

I feel morally obligated to spend that money to help the economy and the people who have struggled these last fifteen months.

#Altruistic

Freakonomics had a good episode recently about WFH...it could well be another driver of inequality, if you have a profession where you can WFH from basically anywhere, you can easily choose to live somewhere cheaper and save all the money on commuting etc, extending your advantage over others.

Where as if you are a bus driver in London, you can hardly move to more than a quite limited distance from the capital with all the costs that incurs.

Though, if London does become less desirable, that does benefit those that have to live there.

The interesting question is, what happens to London weighting? There have been whispers that the civil service might start cutting wages if people refuse to go to the office.

In a funny kind of way, we could end up with some people spending more time in the office. Pre-COVID there was a tendency for more senior members of staff to come and go as they pleased at my place. If we move to a more formal “you need to spend x number of hours at your desk”, some staff members will actually have to do more time in the office as it’ll have to apply to everyone.

Casino_Royale said:

It sorts of feels like the next 12-18 months will be ok, but not the next 3-5 years.

It might explain why Boris wants a slightly early election.

I actually think the UK economy is going to recover very strongly in the next 6 months and then grow very strongly over the next few years. People want a safe country to park their money and the UK is going to be a very strong choice as it sits outside of the ECJ and as that money filters through to the real economy we'll see a pretty big economic boost and boost in actual incomes.

Edit, well that didn't work

Philip_Thompson said:

alex_ said:

How long till Portugal is back on the green list? They’re probably going to suffer from the Govt not wanting to look like idiots...

The lists are reviewed every 3 weeks.

3 weeks time will take us past 21 June at which point we should have fully reopened domestically so once that's happened the more things can go green the better after that point.

Though I'd expect a big tranche of greens potentially in six weeks time instead. Gets us a few weeks past 21 June and gives the EU nations time to catch up on vaccinations.

How long do we reckon it’ll be till we can travel without negative COVID tests. Surely fully vaccinated will be enough in the near future

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Why? If it is leading to hospital admissions sufficiently large to increase the number of people in hospital (the average stay seems to be falling) I would agree. Otherwise, so what?

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

And the General Strike.

I didn’t realise until I was looking at historic railway usage that the general strike didn’t last all that long. It had an impact on passenger journeys, but not that much and certainly nothing like COVID.

Many decades ago, a chap who'd lived through the general strike told me the government was afraid of a communist revolution, though this was rarely mentioned afterwards.

Andy_JS said:

darkage said:

(FPT)

Pagan2 said:

Sandpit said:

How’s about we go back to what Dr. King taught us, and treat people according to the content of their character rather than the colour of their skin?

Because this country by an large isnt all that racist anymore, yes we are still rooting out pockets of it but the truth is all those racism campaigners were virtually out of a job so they have latched on to a new money spinner with glee. They are just larcenous arseholes that would rather try and spin a fairy tale than get a proper job

I can't believe that this country is not racist. The windrush deportations were, to my mind, evidence of outrageous institutional racism - a whole bureaucracy was set up with the apparent unspoken goal of deporting poor black people.

I really hoped that the Black Lives Matter protests would start focussing on things like this rather than problems with police shootings which really do not apply in this country. These injustices still go on; children basically lose their fathers to destitution in foreign countries after they have completed their prison sentences. They are effectively banished under blair era legislation that gives vast powers to the state which are simply exercised in an inhumane way.

Ask yourself - why should people with afro carribbean heritage suffer this fate whereas ethnic white people do not? How is that fair?

There are people, disproportionately black people, that actually suffer banishment and get their lives ruined. No one supports them because they are drug dealers or have committed terrible crimes, but they still have families, and lives are actually ruined in tangible ways (ie they become destitute in third world countries with no local networks to support them), rather than suffering PTSD from microagressions or misspoken language or whatever.

You will find many people posting on here who are oestensibly on my side of the argument (I am definetely not woke) who claim not to be racist but then celebrate the deportation of dual national criminals. I just think this, as much as wokeness, marks the decline of our civilisation.

There's very little racism in the UK compared to almost anywhere else. It's interesting how it was just when most of the real racists died out, about 10 years ago, that the whole Woke thing started.

If you truly believe this, then you are not looking or listening very hard.

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

The reason I am not concerned is because of the vaccination programme. Cases in the young are mostly* not a problem, and as in Bolton, will rise, peak and fall, with minimal impact on the hospitals and deaths. It’s also not spreading that rapidly out of the metropolitan areas.

*Important to note that this will be an issue for some unfortunate folk, but most will have had the chance of their vaccine very soon.

dixiedean said:

31% think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months?
Who the heck are these people?
Short of a war, new pandemic, asteroid strike or tsunami it can't possibly be worse than the past year.
There are, of course, aliens...

I thought the same thing. We have just had a year when GDP fell by about 9% as a result of Covid restrictions which are on the point of being removed. How the hell does the economy get worse?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

And the General Strike.

I didn’t realise until I was looking at historic railway usage that the general strike didn’t last all that long. It had an impact on passenger journeys, but not that much and certainly nothing like COVID.

Many decades ago, a chap who'd lived through the general strike told me the government was afraid of a communist revolution, though this was rarely mentioned afterwards.

Yes - the reason that Churchill sent the troops in was to prevent an incident. He was worried that the Police would be armed by the local Chief constables, and shooting would start, kicking off something even worse.

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

turbotubbs said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

The reason I am not concerned is because of the vaccination programme. Cases in the young are mostly* not a problem, and as in Bolton, will rise, peak and fall, with minimal impact on the hospitals and deaths. It’s also not spreading that rapidly out of the metropolitan areas.

*Important to note that this will be an issue for some unfortunate folk, but most will have had the chance of their vaccine very soon.

A Consultant couple of my acquaintance is about to be a test of that theory. Both are long double vaxxed with Pfizer, but their vaccinated medical student son (also double vaxxed) just brought it home, and now the other kids all have it too.

Fingers crossed for them

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Roaring Twenties here we come!

Personally I'm looking forward to the whorin' twenties.

I want to avoid the roaring twenties because you know the Wall Street Crash.

And the General Strike.

I didn’t realise until I was looking at historic railway usage that the general strike didn’t last all that long. It had an impact on passenger journeys, but not that much and certainly nothing like COVID.

Many decades ago, a chap who'd lived through the general strike told me the government was afraid of a communist revolution, though this was rarely mentioned afterwards.

Yes - the reason that Churchill sent the troops in was to prevent an incident. He was worried that the Police would be armed by the local Chief constables, and shooting would start, kicking off something even worse.

You’re confusing it with the railway strike of 1911. In 1926, Churchill was packed off to edit the government newspaper, the British Gazette, as he was too bellicose and wanted to shoot most of the strikers.

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

The reason I am not concerned is because of the vaccination programme. Cases in the young are mostly* not a problem, and as in Bolton, will rise, peak and fall, with minimal impact on the hospitals and deaths. It’s also not spreading that rapidly out of the metropolitan areas.

*Important to note that this will be an issue for some unfortunate folk, but most will have had the chance of their vaccine very soon.

A Consultant couple of my acquaintance is about to be a test of that theory. Both are long double vaxxed with Pfizer, but their vaccinated medical student son (also double vaxxed) just brought it home, and now the other kids all have it too.

Fingers crossed for them

Fingers crossed indeed. Any details on how sick, and how the son new he was infected (I.e. asymptomatic?)

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

Very different increase there. Hard to extrapolate but maybe 1000 a day by December, although of course much more complete vaccination by then too.

Taz said:

DougSeal said:

Sandpit said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

Case numbers are pretty much now irrelevant. The important stat is numbers in hospital, which are remaining steady.

Hmmm...not looking that great either TBH in terms of trend...

But how many are double vaccinated. Very very few. Vaccines work. They’re the only route out.

I agree but there’s an interim stage I’m a bit concerned about...

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

It sorts of feels like the next 12-18 months will be ok, but not the next 3-5 years.

It might explain why Boris wants a slightly early election.

I actually think the UK economy is going to recover very strongly in the next 6 months and then grow very strongly over the next few years. People want a safe country to park their money and the UK is going to be a very strong choice as it sits outside of the ECJ and as that money filters through to the real economy we'll see a pretty big economic boost and boost in actual incomes.

It's the return of inflation, challenges with decoupling from China (a deflationary contributor) and increased siege economy mentalities that worry me.

I hope you're right, although the logic of that is that sterling is pushed rather high which would hurt our exports.

China is seeing surging input prices which is going to feed through to export prices soon which means decoupling from China won't make much difference to the overall picture.

Andy_JS said:

Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.

I think the issue with Wolf is she was always a tendentious fool, but that’s become much more obvious recently due to her higher profile.

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

DougSeal said:

I really do think we need to keep more of an eye on this than people on here think...

The reason I am not concerned is because of the vaccination programme. Cases in the young are mostly* not a problem, and as in Bolton, will rise, peak and fall, with minimal impact on the hospitals and deaths. It’s also not spreading that rapidly out of the metropolitan areas.

*Important to note that this will be an issue for some unfortunate folk, but most will have had the chance of their vaccine very soon.

A Consultant couple of my acquaintance is about to be a test of that theory. Both are long double vaxxed with Pfizer, but their vaccinated medical student son (also double vaxxed) just brought it home, and now the other kids all have it too.

Fingers crossed for them

The ‘theory’ has already been tested and is manifest in the empirical evidence. There will be exceptions, of course.

Andy_JS said:

Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.

I always confuse her with Naomi Klein.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

It sorts of feels like the next 12-18 months will be ok, but not the next 3-5 years.

It might explain why Boris wants a slightly early election.

I actually think the UK economy is going to recover very strongly in the next 6 months and then grow very strongly over the next few years. People want a safe country to park their money and the UK is going to be a very strong choice as it sits outside of the ECJ and as that money filters through to the real economy we'll see a pretty big economic boost and boost in actual incomes.

It's the return of inflation, challenges with decoupling from China (a deflationary contributor) and increased siege economy mentalities that worry me.

I hope you're right, although the logic of that is that sterling is pushed rather high which would hurt our exports.

China is seeing surging input prices which is going to feed through to export prices soon which means decoupling from China won't make much difference to the overall picture.

Interesting, thanks. But doesn't that mean no antidote to global inflationary pressures though?

Andy_JS said:

Only a couple of years ago Naomi Wolf was regarded as a massive authority on lots of subjects. That was before she made a major error with one of her books, and then became an anti-vaxxer, leading to her being banned from Twitter.

Twitter is a terrible place.