Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politic
Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politicalbetting.com
We have not got a date yet but the Chesham and Amersham by-election looks set to be the next big political betting event and the Smarkets chart above shows the latest trend in the betting which has the Tories with a 91.7% chance.
Comments
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test0
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Probably more Green and Labour advances there too, in inverse proportion to Batley and Spen's.0
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Interesting.
The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.
Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.
The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?3 -
FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.0 -
It will for the foreseeable but perhaps not in the long term.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting.
The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.
Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.
The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?0 -
I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.
I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.0 -
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.0 -
That annual "two hour documentary on wet weather tyre choices in tax havens."Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.4 -
The constituency, however, is in a part of the country which voted Remain where generally the Tories struggled on Thursday.
I think that's pushing it a bit.5 -
FPT
I don't see why for the nations in the union why they don't just take it completely out of party hands. Each holyrood election just add to the end of the ballot a yes no question . I want a referendum in this parliament. Then scottish parties can concentrate on doing their day job and a referendum is only held when the people of scotland agree they want one2 -
Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be greatMorris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.4 -
Mr. Eagles, nothing says racy like a circuit that's slow and makes passing almost impossible.
Mr. Gate, Ladbrokes should have a market on how many wheels he has on his car at the end.0 -
OGH ignores that Labour has a dynamic new head of campaigns ready to sweep Chesham, Amersham and the whole of the Metropolitan Line.2
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Especially when the Tories are defending a 16,223 vote majority.tlg86 said:The constituency, however, is in a part of the country which voted Remain where generally the Tories struggled on Thursday.
I think that's pushing it a bit.
The latest approval ratings from Opinium have leavers giving Johnson a net plus of 26% but a net minus of 40% amongst remainers.
That's surely primarily because most Remainers are Labour, SNP, Greens or Lib Dems etc.
Does any pollster give an approval rating breakdown for the segment of the electorate that are Tory Remainers?
To use Woke terminology surely the intersectionality of those who are both Tory and Remainers are surely the relevant to this constituency.0 -
Not to forget Diane Abbott's helpful suggestion that the party support a return to free movement of people..DecrepiterJohnL said:OGH ignores that Labour has a dynamic new head of campaigns ready to sweep Chesham, Amersham and the whole of the Metropolitan Line.
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Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill1 -
I am willing to accept that tory voters in this constituency are uneasy, but not because of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
Especially when the Tories are defending a 16,223 vote majority.tlg86 said:The constituency, however, is in a part of the country which voted Remain where generally the Tories struggled on Thursday.
I think that's pushing it a bit.
The latest approval ratings from Opinium have leavers giving Johnson a net plus of 26% but a net minus of 40% amongst remainers.
That's surely primarily because most Remainers are Labour, SNP, Greens or Lib Dems etc.
Does any pollster give an approval rating breakdown for the segment of the electorate that are Tory Remainers?
To use Woke terminology surely the intersectionality of those who are both Tory and Remainers are surely the relevant to this constituency.1 -
Things to mull on. Lib Dem moral in nearby areas like Oxfordshire, St Albans, Watford and Three Rivers is very high. Though Rennard was pushed out long ago, Mark Pack is Party President and is a seasoned campaigner. They've already tapped people for money. This will be a lot closer than you might think.1
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Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill1 -
Some voters in Batley may be pleased Brabin was tough on blasphemy, and tough on the causes of blasphemy.0
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2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco
They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.
Oh god, I miss travel2 -
Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.Gallowgate said:
Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be greatMorris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.0 -
Acquiescence bias, and certainly in polling people almost always say they want referenda on things whether they care about the things or not. Someone might tick "yes" without thinking it's all that important.Pagan2 said:FPT
I don't see why for the nations in the union why they don't just take it completely out of party hands. Each holyrood election just add to the end of the ballot a yes no question . I want a referendum in this parliament. Then scottish parties can concentrate on doing their day job and a referendum is only held when the people of scotland agree they want one0 -
While that's true, without him Mick Schumacher probably wouldn't be in F1 right now.MaxPB said:
Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.Gallowgate said:
Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be greatMorris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.0 -
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*1 -
First LibDem email arguing only they can win Chesham & Amersham byelection off the Tories. No bar chart but you know it can't be far behind #natureishealing
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/13917439409157775370 -
I suspect the good tories of Henley are aghast at being linked to Hartlepool, and vice versa...TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting.
The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.
Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.
The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?0 -
Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.
No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.
But what exactly is the LD message?
- That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
- That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
- Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
- It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.
There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.
That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.3 -
And then the Ryanair stewardess whips out her credit card machine and bills you 20 EUR and asks if you want to buy any perfumes as wellLeon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
*quietly sobbing in NE13*7 -
2nd place should be a decent contest.
0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election
The last 4 opinion polls in Spain since the Madrid elections show the government party PSOE of Sanchez falling behind the PP for the first time. I doubt all the new proposed taxes helped either!0 -
Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.0 -
To be fair, the perfumes are probably nicer to drink.Gallowgate said:
And then the Ryanair stewardess whips out her credit card machine and bills you 20 EUR and asks if you want to buy any perfumes as wellLeon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
*quietly sobbing in NE13*7 -
If you think he's propping up Haas, they he saved Giovanazzi's careeer, not Mick's. Mick is a pay driver of a wholely different type and will find willing teams to sell his name for a while yet.Gallowgate said:
While that's true, without him Mick Schumacher probably wouldn't be in F1 right now.MaxPB said:
Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.Gallowgate said:
Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be greatMorris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.1 -
The good tories of Henley are aghast at having to finance Hartlepool, Scotland, Wales, furlough, track and trace, build back greener and every other Johnson wheeze out there.Daveyboy1961 said:
I suspect the good tories of Henley are aghast at being linked to Hartlepool, and vice versa...TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting.
The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.
Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.
The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?
All with one hand tied behind their backs because of intrusive government and restrictions.1 -
Fair pointmaaarsh said:
If you think he's propping up Haas, they he saved Giovanazzi's careeer, not Mick's. Mick is a pay driver of a wholely different type and will find willing teams to sell his name for a while yet.Gallowgate said:
While that's true, without him Mick Schumacher probably wouldn't be in F1 right now.MaxPB said:
Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.Gallowgate said:
Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be greatMorris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.0 -
Actually, I like that moment as well. Not as much as the champagne in seat 1A, but I still like it. A lot.Gallowgate said:
And then the Ryanair stewardess whips out her credit card machine and bills you 20 EUR and asks if you want to buy any perfumes as wellLeon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
The plane hits cruising altitude. Seat belt signs go off. You hear the happy tinkle of the drinks trolley. It finallly reaches you in seat 54C, just behind the Stag Party from Sunderland
You ask for two gins and two tonics. Or maybe 3. Enough to last the flight. You suck the swizzle stick, contentedly. You’re going somewhere new and warm and sunny. Life is good1 -
I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!1
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It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.3 -
You’re quite right. It’s been so long I’ve forgotten essential details like THEY SERVE THE BUBBLY BEFORE CLOSING THE DOORSTOPPING said:
Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.
My favourite is Eva Air Royal Laurel class london-Bangkok. 12 hour flight? Very luxurious. And you do it in winter so you leave freezing london at 9pm, and you arrive in sultry, delicious, tropical-evening Bangkok at about 4pm. By the time you reach the hotel the sun is dipping in the gear haze and the skyscrapers glitter and it’s time for g&t
Edit: I was going to correct ‘gear haze’ to what I meant - ‘heat haze’. But as an autocorrect‘gear haze’ is superb. I spent months viewing Bangkok, as a young man, through a ‘gear haze’0 -
Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.Leon said:2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco
They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.
Oh god, I miss travel0 -
Point of order. The manager told me he was in the kitchen that morning, because they had a massive function that evening, and he was overseeing prepmaaarsh said:
The great Robuchon may have personally potted my eggs. Who knows. Allow an ageing man his dreams0 -
Considering the scots must be fully aware of what a referendum means having been through one fairly recently on the subject I would expect them to only tick yes if they thought it was a good idea. Ticking yes in an actual ballot where if enough do triggers the referendum is hugely different to saying yes in a pollMonkeys said:
Acquiescence bias, and certainly in polling people almost always say they want referenda on things whether they care about the things or not. Someone might tick "yes" without thinking it's all that important.Pagan2 said:FPT
I don't see why for the nations in the union why they don't just take it completely out of party hands. Each holyrood election just add to the end of the ballot a yes no question . I want a referendum in this parliament. Then scottish parties can concentrate on doing their day job and a referendum is only held when the people of scotland agree they want one0 -
12-hr flights are fantastic. Enough time for booze, food, film, booze, booze, sleep, food whatever the time zone.Leon said:
You’re quite right. It’s been so long I’ve forgotten essential details like THEY SERVE THE BUBBLY BEFORE CLOSING THE DOORSTOPPING said:
Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.
My favourite is Eva Air Royal Laurel class london-Bangkok. 12 hour flight? Very luxurious. And you do it in winter so you leave freezing london at 9pm, and you arrive in sultry, delicious, tropical-evening Bangkok at about 4pm. By the time you reach the hotel the sun is dipping in the gear haze and the skyscrapers glitter and it’s time for g&t0 -
My gut is that the LibDems manage to get tactical voting working in their favour, but not quite to the required level:Quincel said:I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.
I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.
Cons 50%
LD 42%
Other 8%
A decent swing (like Witney), but a Conservative hold.4 -
And certainly not as the late Joel Robuchon.maaarsh said:1 -
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidshor/status/1391740725587546115
Excellent thread on why Labour must win back atleast some of the red wall voters.1 -
Yes, they’re perfect. First/biz on a 4-7 hour flight is frustratingly pointless and short. You can’t get properly hammered twice AND have a nice kipTOPPING said:
12-hr flights are fantastic. Enough time for booze, food, film, booze, booze, sleep, food whatever the time zone.Leon said:
You’re quite right. It’s been so long I’ve forgotten essential details like THEY SERVE THE BUBBLY BEFORE CLOSING THE DOORSTOPPING said:
Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.
My favourite is Eva Air Royal Laurel class london-Bangkok. 12 hour flight? Very luxurious. And you do it in winter so you leave freezing london at 9pm, and you arrive in sultry, delicious, tropical-evening Bangkok at about 4pm. By the time you reach the hotel the sun is dipping in the gear haze and the skyscrapers glitter and it’s time for g&t0 -
I agree with OGH here, I think Chesham and Amersham has a real chance of going LD, it was in Chiltern district which was 55% Remain at the Referendum, well above average and the local elections saw the Tories and LDs neck and neck on Thursday in the Amersham TC votes and the Tories win but without an outright popular vote majority in the unitary authority elections in the area.
There is a prospect Batley and Spen could go Tory but Chesham and Amersham goes LD in the forthcoming by elections, which would emphasise the realignments Brexit has brought and the trends we saw in the local elections. Even if the Tories and Labour hold onto the seats their majorities will likely be down1 -
I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.rcs1000 said:
Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.Leon said:2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco
They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.
Oh god, I miss travel
Much cheaper.0 -
Sets it up nicely for the next GE thoughrcs1000 said:
My gut is that the LibDems manage to get tactical voting working in their favour, but not quite to the required level:Quincel said:I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.
I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.
Cons 50%
LD 42%
Other 8%
A decent swing (like Witney), but a Conservative hold.0 -
BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."
Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?3 -
Save the Green Belt.david_herdson said:Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.
No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.
But what exactly is the LD message?
- That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
- That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
- Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
- It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.
There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.
That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.
(The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)0 -
One thing that became obvious from that wonderful series with Steve Coogan and Rob Bryden when they went to visit all the restaurants was that when they showed the kitchen scenes invariably the chef was in the middle of spooning oodles of butter over whatever it was they were cooking.Nigelb said:
I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.rcs1000 said:
Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.Leon said:2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco
They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.
Oh god, I miss travel
Much cheaper.0 -
Weekend data absences - but UK (narrowly) in lead on "fully vaccinated}:
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
0 -
I feel the Lib Dems could do with a New Labour style rebrand.0
-
‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than thatdavid_herdson said:
It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
“Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl0 -
Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.Stuartinromford said:
Save the Green Belt.david_herdson said:Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.
No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.
But what exactly is the LD message?
- That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
- That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
- Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
- It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.
There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.
That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.
(The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔0 -
Is HS2 still an important issue?Quincel said:I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.
I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.0 -
I think it means do it but make it a quickie.Morris_Dancer said:BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."
Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?0 -
It is something they are going to have to get used to.Daveyboy1961 said:
I suspect the good tories of Henley are aghast at being linked to Hartlepool, and vice versa...TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting.
The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.
Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.
The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?0 -
On "brown field", or in Hartlepool. Anywhere other than in their back yards. C'mon we know the answer.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.Stuartinromford said:
Save the Green Belt.david_herdson said:Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.
No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.
But what exactly is the LD message?
- That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
- That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
- Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
- It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.
There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.
That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.
(The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔1 -
President Le Pen incomingFloater said:0 -
Mr. kinabalu, I think a quickie is something else...
Wait, I have it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV_BPDi8Ems0 -
Or just stop at a hug (or am I misinterpreting?)kinabalu said:
I think it means do it but make it a quickie.Morris_Dancer said:BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."
Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?
0 -
France now on a nontrivial 25m. Great to see the big European economies catching up.CarlottaVance said:Weekend data absences - but UK (narrowly) in lead on "fully vaccinated}:
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/1 -
Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.Nigelb said:
I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.rcs1000 said:
Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.Leon said:2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco
They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.
Oh god, I miss travel
Much cheaper.0 -
You fly commercial?Leon said:
‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than thatdavid_herdson said:
It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
“Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl5 -
I love quickies, pre Covid I used to have a couple a week.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kinabalu, I think a quickie is something else...
Wait, I have it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV_BPDi8Ems
I believe 'quickie' is how you pronounce this Johnny Foreigner word.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiche0 -
Voters don't care about all this flim-flam. Which of us has not taken a holiday to Mustique at the expense of someone we're unable to identify?
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1391696698251034629
I wonder if the person who didn't pay for the holiday is the same one who didn't pay for the flat?0 -
Free champagne is a sign you're paying too much for whatever you're paying for.david_herdson said:
It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.6 -
On a map, Wales does look quite big.kingbongo said:I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!
0 -
The big question there is will the vaccination rates taper off as in the US, when they run out of people actually wanting the vaccine...Anabobazina said:
France now on a nontrivial 25m. Great to see the big European economies catching up.CarlottaVance said:Weekend data absences - but UK (narrowly) in lead on "fully vaccinated}:
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/0 -
It’s my one concession to the principles of socialismrcs1000 said:
You fly commercial?Leon said:
‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than thatdavid_herdson said:
It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
“Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl0 -
Even better tiprcs1000 said:Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.
Don't adulterate the eggs with anything. Just cook them until they are perfectly done.
Eat.
Enjoy.
On day old sourdough toast...0 -
That would be my instinct too. It's a fairly old demographic I think, so despite the remain focus I assume there will be lots of people happy at having been jabbed in the last couple of months and generally well disposed to the government as a result.rcs1000 said:
My gut is that the LibDems manage to get tactical voting working in their favour, but not quite to the required level:Quincel said:I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.
I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.
Cons 50%
LD 42%
Other 8%
A decent swing (like Witney), but a Conservative hold.
However, things that could play to LD favour:
- The LD brand at the moment is a bit nondescript, but I think we've managed to lose the single issue mania image we picked up before the 2019 election. We should be scoring highly on "those nice Lib Dems with their educated accents and concerns about local issues in our area".
- An opportunity to let the Tories know we're not 100% comfortable with this new somewhat vulgar national patriotic schtick and would rather they stuck to keeping taxes down and preserving the green belt. Quite possibly manifested in low turnout rather than active voting against.
- Labour being so obviously in a bad way after Hartlepool that tactical voting becomes a bit easier
- Daisy Cooper being in her seat not so far away round the M25, helping the party look relevant.
- The as-yet unquantified lockdown effect of working age Londoners retreating to the home counties bringing their metropolitan voting habits with them (though that may help Labour and Greens more).
There's a gap in the market for a pro-business, "Southern", liberal / libertarian party that could never win a national election but could carve out a niche in the stockbroker belt and other more rural parts of the Southern blue wall by focusing on being awfully nice and sensible.
0 -
Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.kingbongo said:I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!
0 -
Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is goodGallowgate said:
President Le Pen incomingFloater said:2 -
Soy sauce is remarkably good with any form of egg. Tabasco is weirdly great on poached eggsScott_xP said:
Even better tiprcs1000 said:Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.
Don't adulterate the eggs with anything. Just cook them until they are perfectly done.
Eat.
Enjoy.
On day old sourdough toast...
I’m here all week0 -
Pfully Pfeizered! 12 weeks to the day since the first jab.5
-
There are some interesting stories about Jean Bastien-Thiry and Petit Clamart - mainly that he wasn't OAS and the the plot came from another direction. From inside the French military....Floater said:0 -
If people are fool enough to pay that then that's their business. But personally, a glass a drink wouldn't make any difference one way or the other.Leon said:
‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than thatdavid_herdson said:
It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
“Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl1 -
Sounds interesting, though a bit of a hassle, and I take less than two minutes to scramble the eggs anyway.rcs1000 said:
Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.Nigelb said:
I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.rcs1000 said:
Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.Leon said:2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco
They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.
Oh god, I miss travel
Much cheaper.
And as @Topping points out, too much butter is the foundation of gastronomy.0 -
I discovered soy sauce on eggs a few months ago and I would 100% support .Leon said:
Soy sauce is remarkably good with any form of egg. Tabasco is weirdly great on poached eggsScott_xP said:
Even better tiprcs1000 said:Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.
Don't adulterate the eggs with anything. Just cook them until they are perfectly done.
Eat.
Enjoy.
On day old sourdough toast...
I’m here all week0 -
Once, and only once, I have been seated next to a beautiful woman on a flight. It was on Air France from Asia to the UK (via Paris).Leon said:
‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than thatdavid_herdson said:
It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
“Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl
Just before we took off, she pushed down the screen and said "I'm terrified and need to get off this plane". I called an air hostess and they were out of the pills they normally carry for such things (who knew?). So I said there's only one thing for it - we need to drink. And drink we did and hence we cleared Air France out of champagne. Air France - ponder that.
And we chatted throughout and I like to think bonded to a great and profound degree and I then gave her my number, having helped her through what was evidently a traumatic time in her life.
And, dear reader, I never heard from her again.9 -
The Americans have discovered Holyrood, the building. An amusing thread
‘The Scottish Parliament is, truly, one of the ugliest buildings ever built.’
https://twitter.com/lvcivs_mcmxci/status/1391096874543685632?s=21
They’re not wrong. It’s shockingly bad. An obscene insult to one of the most serenely beautiful cities in the world. How did it happen? How did it cost so much???
The amazing thing is that, despite costing £400m, it manages to look cheap. Like a po-mo Premier Inn on the outskirts of Basingstoke
The worst public building erected in the UK - ever??2 -
Even better when you've said yes and they ask "the Krug or the Dom?"Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
(Happened once, ever, SQ First Class with Lord & Lady Lawson only other pax).0 -
Besides, it's a different question.Gallowgate said:
On "brown field", or in Hartlepool. Anywhere other than in their back yards. C'mon we know the answer.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.Stuartinromford said:
Save the Green Belt.david_herdson said:Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.
No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.
But what exactly is the LD message?
- That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
- That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
- Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
- It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.
There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.
That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.
(The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔
Whether the whole policy platform hangs together is pretty much irrelevant. Most party manifestoes don't; at best they're held together with sticky tape and wishful thinking.
The question was- what message might resonate enough in C+A to get a by-election bandwagon going. And nicely-dressed NIMBYism will do the job well. Especially with a planning bill in the works, which can be linked back to Cummings and algorithms if needed.
How do you hold Chesham and Cleethorpes, eh? Not by telling you're old core vote how wrong they are about everything...
[In the past, I've had a teeny role in holding back Lib Dems on the South Coast. Trust me, I have a fair idea how this works.]0 -
That said, I accept I'm a bit odd when it comes to travel, preferring to spend days on a rail sleeper for what would probably be the price of a business air fare.david_herdson said:
If people are fool enough to pay that then that's their business. But personally, a glass a drink wouldn't make any difference one way or the other.Leon said:
‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than thatdavid_herdson said:
It's an aeroplane.Leon said:
Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’TOPPING said:
Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.Leon said:
Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.TheScreamingEagles said:
You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.Morris_Dancer said:FPT:
F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931
In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend
I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’
He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
*quietly sobbing in NW1*
I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
“Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl0 -
Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.Pagan2 said:
Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is goodGallowgate said:
President Le Pen incomingFloater said:1 -
You just wait until the indy Scotland outdoes that with its Freedom Centre.Leon said:The Americans have discovered Holyrood, the building. An amusing thread
‘The Scottish Parliament is, truly, one of the ugliest buildings ever built.’
https://twitter.com/lvcivs_mcmxci/status/1391096874543685632?s=21
They’re not wrong. It’s shockingly bad. An obscene insult to one of the most serenely beautiful cities in the world. How did it happen? How did it cost so much???
The amazing thing is that, despite costing £400m, it manages to look cheap. Like a po-mo Premier Inn on the outskirts of Basingstoke
The worst public building erected in the UK - ever??1 -
In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20
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Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BADTOPPING said:
Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.Pagan2 said:
Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is goodGallowgate said:
President Le Pen incomingFloater said:0 -
David Miliband
We listen to @theJeremyVine @JeremyVineOn5 to kick off the day (7am here). Jeremy Corbyn telling us how to win today put me right off my corn flakes. He delivered the best result since 1935 - FOR THE TORIES. More of that would be madness. We won’t be heard til we break with it.
https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/13917521992864399390 -
To be realistic, most people who could vote Tory won't care much who in some alien toff world paid for something as long as they didn't. Life has too many other priorities.Scott_xP said:Voters don't care about all this flim-flam. Which of us has not taken a holiday to Mustique at the expense of someone we're unable to identify?
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1391696698251034629
I wonder if the person who didn't pay for the holiday is the same one who didn't pay for the flat?
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Don't take a hug to a gun fight......Morris_Dancer said:BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."
Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?1
