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Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politic

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 10 in General
imageWhy the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politicalbetting.com

We have not got a date yet but the Chesham and Amersham by-election looks set to be the next big political betting event and the Smarkets chart above shows the latest trend in the betting which has the Tories with a 91.7% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,903
    test
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,594
    edited May 10
    Probably more Green and Labour advances there too, in inverse proportion to Batley and Spen's.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,508
    Interesting.

    The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.

    Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.

    The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,933
    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482

    Interesting.

    The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.

    Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.

    The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?

    It will for the foreseeable but perhaps not in the long term.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,760
    edited May 10
    I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.

    I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,508

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 8,548

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    That annual "two hour documentary on wet weather tyre choices in tax havens."
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,245
    FPT

    I don't see why for the nations in the union why they don't just take it completely out of party hands. Each holyrood election just add to the end of the ballot a yes no question . I want a referendum in this parliament. Then scottish parties can concentrate on doing their day job and a referendum is only held when the people of scotland agree they want one
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be great
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,933
    Mr. Eagles, nothing says racy like a circuit that's slow and makes passing almost impossible.

    Mr. Gate, Ladbrokes should have a market on how many wheels he has on his car at the end.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,168
    OGH ignores that Labour has a dynamic new head of campaigns ready to sweep Chesham, Amersham and the whole of the Metropolitan Line.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,335
    tlg86 said:

    The constituency, however, is in a part of the country which voted Remain where generally the Tories struggled on Thursday.

    I think that's pushing it a bit.

    Especially when the Tories are defending a 16,223 vote majority.

    The latest approval ratings from Opinium have leavers giving Johnson a net plus of 26% but a net minus of 40% amongst remainers.

    That's surely primarily because most Remainers are Labour, SNP, Greens or Lib Dems etc.

    Does any pollster give an approval rating breakdown for the segment of the electorate that are Tory Remainers?

    To use Woke terminology surely the intersectionality of those who are both Tory and Remainers are surely the relevant to this constituency.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692

    OGH ignores that Labour has a dynamic new head of campaigns ready to sweep Chesham, Amersham and the whole of the Metropolitan Line.

    Not to forget Diane Abbott's helpful suggestion that the party support a return to free movement of people..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    tlg86 said:

    The constituency, however, is in a part of the country which voted Remain where generally the Tories struggled on Thursday.

    I think that's pushing it a bit.

    Especially when the Tories are defending a 16,223 vote majority.

    The latest approval ratings from Opinium have leavers giving Johnson a net plus of 26% but a net minus of 40% amongst remainers.

    That's surely primarily because most Remainers are Labour, SNP, Greens or Lib Dems etc.

    Does any pollster give an approval rating breakdown for the segment of the electorate that are Tory Remainers?

    To use Woke terminology surely the intersectionality of those who are both Tory and Remainers are surely the relevant to this constituency.
    I am willing to accept that tory voters in this constituency are uneasy, but not because of Brexit.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,035
    Things to mull on. Lib Dem moral in nearby areas like Oxfordshire, St Albans, Watford and Three Rivers is very high. Though Rennard was pushed out long ago, Mark Pack is Party President and is a seasoned campaigner. They've already tapped people for money. This will be a lot closer than you might think.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco

    They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.

    Oh god, I miss travel
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,933
    Some voters in Batley may be pleased Brabin was tough on blasphemy, and tough on the causes of blasphemy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,931

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be great
    Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 653
    Pagan2 said:

    FPT

    I don't see why for the nations in the union why they don't just take it completely out of party hands. Each holyrood election just add to the end of the ballot a yes no question . I want a referendum in this parliament. Then scottish parties can concentrate on doing their day job and a referendum is only held when the people of scotland agree they want one

    Acquiescence bias, and certainly in polling people almost always say they want referenda on things whether they care about the things or not. Someone might tick "yes" without thinking it's all that important.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828
    Leon said:

    just baked sourdough toast.

    If it's toasted, it shouldn't be just baked. Day old at least.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be great
    Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.
    While that's true, without him Mick Schumacher probably wouldn't be in F1 right now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828
    First LibDem email arguing only they can win Chesham & Amersham byelection off the Tories. No bar chart but you know it can't be far behind #natureishealing
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1391743940915777537
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,454

    Interesting.

    The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.

    Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.

    The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?

    I suspect the good tories of Henley are aghast at being linked to Hartlepool, and vice versa...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,136
    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    just baked sourdough toast.

    If it's toasted, it shouldn't be just baked. Day old at least.
    Perhaps, but the late Joel Robuchon was in the kitchen. Not known for schoolboy errors
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    2nd place should be a decent contest.

  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

    The last 4 opinion polls in Spain since the Madrid elections show the government party PSOE of Sanchez falling behind the PP for the first time. I doubt all the new proposed taxes helped either!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    edited May 10
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?

    But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,356

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be great
    Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.
    While that's true, without him Mick Schumacher probably wouldn't be in F1 right now.
    If you think he's propping up Haas, they he saved Giovanazzi's careeer, not Mick's. Mick is a pay driver of a wholely different type and will find willing teams to sell his name for a while yet.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Interesting.

    The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.

    Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.

    The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?

    I suspect the good tories of Henley are aghast at being linked to Hartlepool, and vice versa...
    The good tories of Henley are aghast at having to finance Hartlepool, Scotland, Wales, furlough, track and trace, build back greener and every other Johnson wheeze out there.

    All with one hand tied behind their backs because of intrusive government and restrictions.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482
    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    Mazepin in Monaco is gonna be great
    Honestly, the guy is a liability. He completely ruined Norris' qualifying and race. Eventually he's going to cause a gigantic pile up and carnage in a race. Monaco might be it.
    While that's true, without him Mick Schumacher probably wouldn't be in F1 right now.
    If you think he's propping up Haas, they he saved Giovanazzi's careeer, not Mick's. Mick is a pay driver of a wholely different type and will find willing teams to sell his name for a while yet.
    Fair point
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    And then the Ryanair stewardess whips out her credit card machine and bills you 20 EUR and asks if you want to buy any perfumes as well
    Actually, I like that moment as well. Not as much as the champagne in seat 1A, but I still like it. A lot.

    The plane hits cruising altitude. Seat belt signs go off. You hear the happy tinkle of the drinks trolley. It finallly reaches you in seat 54C, just behind the Stag Party from Sunderland

    You ask for two gins and two tonics. Or maybe 3. Enough to last the flight. You suck the swizzle stick, contentedly. You’re going somewhere new and warm and sunny. Life is good
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,356
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    just baked sourdough toast.

    If it's toasted, it shouldn't be just baked. Day old at least.
    Perhaps, but the late Joel Robuchon was in the kitchen. Not known for schoolboy errors
    I don't think he did breakfast service...
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 380
    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,136
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    It's an aeroplane.

    I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    edited May 10
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?

    But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.
    You’re quite right. It’s been so long I’ve forgotten essential details like THEY SERVE THE BUBBLY BEFORE CLOSING THE DOORS

    My favourite is Eva Air Royal Laurel class london-Bangkok. 12 hour flight? Very luxurious. And you do it in winter so you leave freezing london at 9pm, and you arrive in sultry, delicious, tropical-evening Bangkok at about 4pm. By the time you reach the hotel the sun is dipping in the gear haze and the skyscrapers glitter and it’s time for g&t


    Edit: I was going to correct ‘gear haze’ to what I meant - ‘heat haze’. But as an autocorrect‘gear haze’ is superb. I spent months viewing Bangkok, as a young man, through a ‘gear haze’
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    just baked sourdough toast.

    If it's toasted, it shouldn't be just baked. Day old at least.
    Perhaps, but the late Joel Robuchon was in the kitchen. Not known for schoolboy errors
    I don't think he did breakfast service...
    Point of order. The manager told me he was in the kitchen that morning, because they had a massive function that evening, and he was overseeing prep

    The great Robuchon may have personally potted my eggs. Who knows. Allow an ageing man his dreams
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692
    Leon said:

    2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco

    They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.

    Oh god, I miss travel

    Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,245
    Monkeys said:

    Pagan2 said:

    FPT

    I don't see why for the nations in the union why they don't just take it completely out of party hands. Each holyrood election just add to the end of the ballot a yes no question . I want a referendum in this parliament. Then scottish parties can concentrate on doing their day job and a referendum is only held when the people of scotland agree they want one

    Acquiescence bias, and certainly in polling people almost always say they want referenda on things whether they care about the things or not. Someone might tick "yes" without thinking it's all that important.
    Considering the scots must be fully aware of what a referendum means having been through one fairly recently on the subject I would expect them to only tick yes if they thought it was a good idea. Ticking yes in an actual ballot where if enough do triggers the referendum is hugely different to saying yes in a poll
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?

    But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.
    You’re quite right. It’s been so long I’ve forgotten essential details like THEY SERVE THE BUBBLY BEFORE CLOSING THE DOORS

    My favourite is Eva Air Royal Laurel class london-Bangkok. 12 hour flight? Very luxurious. And you do it in winter so you leave freezing london at 9pm, and you arrive in sultry, delicious, tropical-evening Bangkok at about 4pm. By the time you reach the hotel the sun is dipping in the gear haze and the skyscrapers glitter and it’s time for g&t
    12-hr flights are fantastic. Enough time for booze, food, film, booze, booze, sleep, food whatever the time zone.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692
    Quincel said:

    I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.

    I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.

    My gut is that the LibDems manage to get tactical voting working in their favour, but not quite to the required level:

    Cons 50%
    LD 42%
    Other 8%

    A decent swing (like Witney), but a Conservative hold.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,216
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    just baked sourdough toast.

    If it's toasted, it shouldn't be just baked. Day old at least.
    Perhaps, but the late Joel Robuchon was in the kitchen. Not known for schoolboy errors
    I don't think he did breakfast service...
    And certainly not as the late Joel Robuchon.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 167
    https://mobile.twitter.com/davidshor/status/1391740725587546115

    Excellent thread on why Labour must win back atleast some of the red wall voters.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    Huh? The booze arrives well before they close the doors. Who do you fly with?

    But yes I too can't wait to get travelling again. Even the Eurostar has attained eminently desirable and coveted travel status in my mind.
    You’re quite right. It’s been so long I’ve forgotten essential details like THEY SERVE THE BUBBLY BEFORE CLOSING THE DOORS

    My favourite is Eva Air Royal Laurel class london-Bangkok. 12 hour flight? Very luxurious. And you do it in winter so you leave freezing london at 9pm, and you arrive in sultry, delicious, tropical-evening Bangkok at about 4pm. By the time you reach the hotel the sun is dipping in the gear haze and the skyscrapers glitter and it’s time for g&t
    12-hr flights are fantastic. Enough time for booze, food, film, booze, booze, sleep, food whatever the time zone.
    Yes, they’re perfect. First/biz on a 4-7 hour flight is frustratingly pointless and short. You can’t get properly hammered twice AND have a nice kip
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,909
    edited May 10
    I agree with OGH here, I think Chesham and Amersham has a real chance of going LD, it was in Chiltern district which was 55% Remain at the Referendum, well above average and the local elections saw the Tories and LDs neck and neck on Thursday in the Amersham TC votes and the Tories win but without an outright popular vote majority in the unitary authority elections in the area.

    There is a prospect Batley and Spen could go Tory but Chesham and Amersham goes LD in the forthcoming by elections, which would emphasise the realignments Brexit has brought and the trends we saw in the local elections. Even if the Tories and Labour hold onto the seats their majorities will likely be down
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,216
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco

    They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.

    Oh god, I miss travel

    Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.
    I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.
    Much cheaper.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.

    I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.

    My gut is that the LibDems manage to get tactical voting working in their favour, but not quite to the required level:

    Cons 50%
    LD 42%
    Other 8%

    A decent swing (like Witney), but a Conservative hold.
    Sets it up nicely for the next GE though
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,933
    BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."

    Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,995

    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.

    Save the Green Belt.

    (The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco

    They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.

    Oh god, I miss travel

    Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.
    I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.
    Much cheaper.
    One thing that became obvious from that wonderful series with Steve Coogan and Rob Bryden when they went to visit all the restaurants was that when they showed the kitchen scenes invariably the chef was in the middle of spooning oodles of butter over whatever it was they were cooking.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,471
    Weekend data absences - but UK (narrowly) in lead on "fully vaccinated}:

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482
    I feel the Lib Dems could do with a New Labour style rebrand.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    It's an aeroplane.

    I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
    ‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than that

    “Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,335

    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.

    Save the Green Belt.

    (The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
    Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.

    I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 854
    Quincel said:

    I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.

    I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.

    Is HS2 still an important issue?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,355

    BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."

    Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?

    I think it means do it but make it a quickie.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,508

    Interesting.

    The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.

    Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.

    The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?

    I suspect the good tories of Henley are aghast at being linked to Hartlepool, and vice versa...
    It is something they are going to have to get used to.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482

    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.

    Save the Green Belt.

    (The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
    Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.

    I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔
    On "brown field", or in Hartlepool. Anywhere other than in their back yards. C'mon we know the answer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,933
    Mr. kinabalu, I think a quickie is something else...

    Wait, I have it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV_BPDi8Ems
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,810
    kinabalu said:

    BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."

    Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?

    I think it means do it but make it a quickie.
    Or just stop at a hug (or am I misinterpreting?) :)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,285

    Weekend data absences - but UK (narrowly) in lead on "fully vaccinated}:

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


    France now on a nontrivial 25m. Great to see the big European economies catching up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco

    They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.

    Oh god, I miss travel

    Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.
    I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.
    Much cheaper.
    Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,508
    edited May 10

    Mr. kinabalu, I think a quickie is something else...

    Wait, I have it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV_BPDi8Ems

    I love quickies, pre Covid I used to have a couple a week.

    I believe 'quickie' is how you pronounce this Johnny Foreigner word.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiche
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828
    Voters don't care about all this flim-flam. Which of us has not taken a holiday to Mustique at the expense of someone we're unable to identify?
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1391696698251034629

    I wonder if the person who didn't pay for the holiday is the same one who didn't pay for the flat?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,095
    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    On a map, Wales does look quite big.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,650

    Weekend data absences - but UK (narrowly) in lead on "fully vaccinated}:

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


    France now on a nontrivial 25m. Great to see the big European economies catching up.
    The big question there is will the vaccination rates taper off as in the US, when they run out of people actually wanting the vaccine...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    edited May 10
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    It's an aeroplane.

    I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
    ‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than that

    “Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl
    You fly commercial?
    It’s my one concession to the principles of socialism
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828
    rcs1000 said:

    Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.

    Even better tip

    Don't adulterate the eggs with anything. Just cook them until they are perfectly done.

    Eat.

    Enjoy.

    On day old sourdough toast...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 329
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    I was looking up the local election results in Chesham and Amersham yesterday, I can't really see how you'd easily find a swing since the seat used to be part of a District Council and is now part of a County Council. But the 2021 vote shares in the locals were basically 50% Tory 25% Lib Dem 25% Everyone Else. That makes me worry for the Lib Dems, though it is true they are clearly in 2nd place so should be able to squeeze the Lab/Green vote for the by-election.

    I do see OGH's point though about 90% being an extremely certain market.

    My gut is that the LibDems manage to get tactical voting working in their favour, but not quite to the required level:

    Cons 50%
    LD 42%
    Other 8%

    A decent swing (like Witney), but a Conservative hold.
    That would be my instinct too. It's a fairly old demographic I think, so despite the remain focus I assume there will be lots of people happy at having been jabbed in the last couple of months and generally well disposed to the government as a result.

    However, things that could play to LD favour:

    - The LD brand at the moment is a bit nondescript, but I think we've managed to lose the single issue mania image we picked up before the 2019 election. We should be scoring highly on "those nice Lib Dems with their educated accents and concerns about local issues in our area".
    - An opportunity to let the Tories know we're not 100% comfortable with this new somewhat vulgar national patriotic schtick and would rather they stuck to keeping taxes down and preserving the green belt. Quite possibly manifested in low turnout rather than active voting against.
    - Labour being so obviously in a bad way after Hartlepool that tactical voting becomes a bit easier
    - Daisy Cooper being in her seat not so far away round the M25, helping the party look relevant.
    - The as-yet unquantified lockdown effect of working age Londoners retreating to the home counties bringing their metropolitan voting habits with them (though that may help Labour and Greens more).

    There's a gap in the market for a pro-business, "Southern", liberal / libertarian party that could never win a national election but could carve out a niche in the stockbroker belt and other more rural parts of the Southern blue wall by focusing on being awfully nice and sensible.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,355
    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,245
    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.

    Even better tip

    Don't adulterate the eggs with anything. Just cook them until they are perfectly done.

    Eat.

    Enjoy.

    On day old sourdough toast...
    Soy sauce is remarkably good with any form of egg. Tabasco is weirdly great on poached eggs

    I’m here all week
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 18,650
    Floater said:
    There are some interesting stories about Jean Bastien-Thiry and Petit Clamart - mainly that he wasn't OAS and the the plot came from another direction. From inside the French military....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,136
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    It's an aeroplane.

    I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
    ‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than that

    “Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl
    If people are fool enough to pay that then that's their business. But personally, a glass a drink wouldn't make any difference one way or the other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,216
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    2nd anecdote. The best scrambled eggs in the world are served for breakfast at the Metropole, Monaco

    They come in a little copper pot and you spoon them, luxuriously, onto your just baked sourdough toast.

    Oh god, I miss travel

    Raymond Blanc does them that way at the Manoir. They are absolutely superb.
    I do them with a good deal of butter and grated fresh turmeric.
    Much cheaper.
    Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.
    Sounds interesting, though a bit of a hassle, and I take less than two minutes to scramble the eggs anyway.
    And as @Topping points out, too much butter is the foundation of gastronomy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 329
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Top tip: separate the yolks and the whites. Cook the whites for two or three minutes before adding the yolks. Results in extremely creamy eggs without needing quite so much butter.

    Even better tip

    Don't adulterate the eggs with anything. Just cook them until they are perfectly done.

    Eat.

    Enjoy.

    On day old sourdough toast...
    Soy sauce is remarkably good with any form of egg. Tabasco is weirdly great on poached eggs

    I’m here all week
    I discovered soy sauce on eggs a few months ago and I would 100% support .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    The Americans have discovered Holyrood, the building. An amusing thread

    ‘The Scottish Parliament is, truly, one of the ugliest buildings ever built.’

    https://twitter.com/lvcivs_mcmxci/status/1391096874543685632?s=21

    They’re not wrong. It’s shockingly bad. An obscene insult to one of the most serenely beautiful cities in the world. How did it happen? How did it cost so much???

    The amazing thing is that, despite costing £400m, it manages to look cheap. Like a po-mo Premier Inn on the outskirts of Basingstoke

    The worst public building erected in the UK - ever??
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,471
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    Even better when you've said yes and they ask "the Krug or the Dom?"

    (Happened once, ever, SQ First Class with Lord & Lady Lawson only other pax).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,995

    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.

    Save the Green Belt.

    (The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
    Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.

    I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔
    On "brown field", or in Hartlepool. Anywhere other than in their back yards. C'mon we know the answer.
    Besides, it's a different question.

    Whether the whole policy platform hangs together is pretty much irrelevant. Most party manifestoes don't; at best they're held together with sticky tape and wishful thinking.

    The question was- what message might resonate enough in C+A to get a by-election bandwagon going. And nicely-dressed NIMBYism will do the job well. Especially with a planning bill in the works, which can be linked back to Cummings and algorithms if needed.

    How do you hold Chesham and Cleethorpes, eh? Not by telling you're old core vote how wrong they are about everything...

    [In the past, I've had a teeny role in holding back Lib Dems on the South Coast. Trust me, I have a fair idea how this works.]
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,136

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    It's an aeroplane.

    I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
    ‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than that

    “Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl
    If people are fool enough to pay that then that's their business. But personally, a glass a drink wouldn't make any difference one way or the other.
    That said, I accept I'm a bit odd when it comes to travel, preferring to spend days on a rail sleeper for what would probably be the price of a business air fare.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,498
    Leon said:

    The Americans have discovered Holyrood, the building. An amusing thread

    ‘The Scottish Parliament is, truly, one of the ugliest buildings ever built.’

    https://twitter.com/lvcivs_mcmxci/status/1391096874543685632?s=21

    They’re not wrong. It’s shockingly bad. An obscene insult to one of the most serenely beautiful cities in the world. How did it happen? How did it cost so much???

    The amazing thing is that, despite costing £400m, it manages to look cheap. Like a po-mo Premier Inn on the outskirts of Basingstoke

    The worst public building erected in the UK - ever??

    You just wait until the indy Scotland outdoes that with its Freedom Centre.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,471
    In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20


  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,508
    David Miliband

    We listen to @theJeremyVine @JeremyVineOn5 to kick off the day (7am here). Jeremy Corbyn telling us how to win today put me right off my corn flakes. He delivered the best result since 1935 - FOR THE TORIES. More of that would be madness. We won’t be heard til we break with it.

    https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1391752199286439939
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,124
    Scott_xP said:

    Voters don't care about all this flim-flam. Which of us has not taken a holiday to Mustique at the expense of someone we're unable to identify?
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1391696698251034629

    I wonder if the person who didn't pay for the holiday is the same one who didn't pay for the flat?

    To be realistic, most people who could vote Tory won't care much who in some alien toff world paid for something as long as they didn't. Life has too many other priorities.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,498

    BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."

    Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?

    Don't take a hug to a gun fight......
This discussion has been closed.