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Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politic

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,168
    Channel 4 tonight: Jabbed! Inside Britain's Vaccine Triumph

    Documentary about the team responsible for sourcing Covid-19 vaccines for the UK Government, whose efforts were one of the biggest public health gambles in British history. Members of the team share their experiences of the critical six-month period from May to December in 2020, where millions of pounds were spent on vaccines before anyone knew for certain if they actually worked.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,335

    BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."

    Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?

    Don't take a hug to a gun fight......
    What about a hug to a knife fight?

    Hug a hoodie ......
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648
    kinabalu said:

    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.
    It's not only the media that is exaggerating Labour's poor performance, Labour itself is at it as well. It seems to me that the Labour vote stayed at home.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692

    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.

    Save the Green Belt.

    (The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
    Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.

    I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔
    There will be plenty of people in Chesham and Amersham who are being deprived of cheap domestic help, and who will simultaneously want a cleaner and the preservation of the green belt. (Especially as the green belt is a subsidy to the owners of housing in places like C&A.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,355
    edited May 10
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    And then the Ryanair stewardess whips out her credit card machine and bills you 20 EUR and asks if you want to buy any perfumes as well
    Actually, I like that moment as well. Not as much as the champagne in seat 1A, but I still like it. A lot.

    The plane hits cruising altitude. Seat belt signs go off. You hear the happy tinkle of the drinks trolley. It finallly reaches you in seat 54C, just behind the Stag Party from Sunderland

    You ask for two gins and two tonics. Or maybe 3. Enough to last the flight. You suck the swizzle stick, contentedly. You’re going somewhere new and warm and sunny. Life is good
    My favourite bit of flying (apart from landing) used to be about 15 mins after take-off, nearly at altitude, seat belt signs off, taking that first glug of bloody mary (my plane drink) and lighting up a marlboro red as I start the process of gazing moodily and philosophically out of the window. All downhill from there. The next bloody mary isn't as pleasurable, the one after even less so, the cigs start to smell and dry out the mouth, ash is all over my lap, and the gazing loses both its mood and its philosophy, becomes strained and self-conscious rather than authentic. Then the bladder makes its presence felt and you have to decide how to handle that.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,266

    In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20


    Are they meant to be % if so what are the others?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,158

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Maybe David Ross doesn't like Boris.

    £15k for a villa in Mustique (I am assuming one week only) doesn't get you very much.

    I did read somewhere that it is something like

    £12k for rental and £3k for the food and drink/staff.

    This villa in Mustique in December for a week is more than 12k in rent.

    https://www.vrbo.com/en-gb/p690822vb?adultsCount=2&arrival=2021-12-20&departure=2021-12-27&uni_id=1238760
    That's Bequia. Chalk and apples from Mustique.
    Oops, wrong link, meant to post this one.

    https://bit.ly/2R6q9ln
    I think we can say that £12k if it was that doesn't get you the best that Mustique can offer...
    Yup, I'm looking at going to Mustique now.

    I've decided that with no foreign holidays for me in 2020 and 2021 I need to go somewhere new in 2022 (plague permitting off course.)
    Well I don't know how you roll in terms of wanting a villa or not but The Cotton House is very good indeed. Exceptional I would go as far as to say. If you like snorkelling it is imo some of the best in the Caribbean.
    I like walking on beaches.

    I like nice restaurants.

    But generally I am not one of life's great outdoorsman.
    "Holy hell, son, you're about as useful as a cock-flavored lollipop!" - Patches O'Houlihan.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    Worst public buildings in the UK

    1. Holyrood
    2. The British Library
    3. That’s it. Maybe the old Home Office, now the Ministry of Justice


    https://manchesterhistory.net/architecture/1970/102pettyfrance.html
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,391

    Interesting.

    The slight crumbling of the old blue wall is interesting.

    Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments.

    The intriguing thing is can the current Tory coalition of Henley and Hartlepool hold?

    "Albeit it is on par for incumbent governments."

    Pre-COVID. But during pandemic normal service has been suspended.

    So for Tories to be down in their old heartlands suggests that Tory bump because Boris Johnson is Mr Jab is being counterbalanced - AND a bit more - by the downside from his ALSO being Mr Mop the weed-wacker, EU-wrecker and (dare I say it) wallpaperer in chief?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,158

    David Miliband

    We listen to @theJeremyVine @JeremyVineOn5 to kick off the day (7am here). Jeremy Corbyn telling us how to win today put me right off my corn flakes. He delivered the best result since 1935 - FOR THE TORIES. More of that would be madness. We won’t be heard til we break with it.

    https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1391752199286439939

    Didn't David lose to Ed Miliband? :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692

    Weekend data absences - but UK (narrowly) in lead on "fully vaccinated}:

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


    France now on a nontrivial 25m. Great to see the big European economies catching up.
    The big question there is will the vaccination rates taper off as in the US, when they run out of people actually wanting the vaccine...
    It's already tapering off in places like Mississippi. If you look at the percent of population in the deep South who have received at least one dose it is as low as 32% in some States, and that number has barely moved 1% in a week.

    It's rather different in much of the rest of the country: Florida is north of 50%, for example, and still growing strongly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,335
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.
    It's not only the media that is exaggerating Labour's poor performance, Labour itself is at it as well. It seems to me that the Labour vote stayed at home.
    Except turnout wasn't down compared to similar elections, was it?

    In Hartlepool the Tory winner in 2021 got such a high share she got MORE in absolute votes cast despite it being a by election than the winning Labour candidate did at the General Election.

    One amusing fact now of course is that the remaining Local Elections between now and the next election will be compared against when Theresa May was in charge but a much diminished character.

    So could the Tories be due further gains in the 2022 and 2023 locals?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,961

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.
    It's not only the media that is exaggerating Labour's poor performance, Labour itself is at it as well. It seems to me that the Labour vote stayed at home.
    Except turnout wasn't down compared to similar elections, was it?

    In Hartlepool the Tory winner in 2021 got such a high share she got MORE in absolute votes cast despite it being a by election than the winning Labour candidate did at the General Election.

    One amusing fact now of course is that the remaining Local Elections between now and the next election will be compared against when Theresa May was in charge but a much diminished character.

    So could the Tories be due further gains in the 2022 and 2023 locals?
    Yes!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,569
    rcs1000 said:

    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.

    Save the Green Belt.

    (The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
    Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.

    I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔
    There will be plenty of people in Chesham and Amersham who are being deprived of cheap domestic help, and who will simultaneously want a cleaner and the preservation of the green belt. (Especially as the green belt is a subsidy to the owners of housing in places like C&A.)
    Indeed - and for the good people of Amersham that's what Wycombe and Watford are for isn't it? Places for the help to live... ;)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,208
    rcs1000 said:

    Hmm. 90%+ is certainly high but while this was a Remain seat in 2016, it was only so by 55-45.

    No doubt the Lib Dems will throw the kitchen sink at the seat so that they can wilfully mislead themselves in the belief that one decent by-election means that their party isn't in near-terminal decline and does have something to say to the country.

    But what exactly is the LD message?

    - That the government is crap and useless? But the vaccine roll-out / re-opening of society - especially cf Europe.
    - That Boris is a bit dodgy? Tell us something we didn't know in 2019.
    - Rejoin the EU? Give us a break. Please.
    - It's a two-horse race? So it was in 2019.

    There is no positive message *at all* about what the Lib Dems stand for and not being the others isn't enough, especially when there are other others who do have something to say.

    That said, at this stage Mike's probably right in his bet, no so much because of what we know but because of the chances of Events upscuttling the government's apple cart before the election is held.

    Save the Green Belt.

    (The Green Belt may not be in danger. But since when has that had anything to do with by-election campaigns?)
    Yet they were also in favour of Free Movement.

    I wonder where they want people who moved there to live? 🤔
    There will be plenty of people in Chesham and Amersham who are being deprived of cheap domestic help, and who will simultaneously want a cleaner and the preservation of the green belt. (Especially as the green belt is a subsidy to the owners of housing in places like C&A.)
    It's not just the ultra-wealthy of Buckinghamshire who think like this. One of my pet irritations is people on facebook who post furiously pro-immigration memes and also in the next post angrily denounce proposed housing estates. They are insulated from any sense of dissonance by their furious certainty that they are morally correct on both issues.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,245
    Leon said:

    Worst public buildings in the UK

    1. Holyrood
    2. The British Library
    3. That’s it. Maybe the old Home Office, now the Ministry of Justice


    https://manchesterhistory.net/architecture/1970/102pettyfrance.html

    Add slough bus station to the list

    https://www.tatasteeleurope.com/ts/construction/case-studies/slough-bus-station

    cunningly designed so with any wind at all the rain comes in nicely under the tails so you get soaked waiting for a bus
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,468

    kinabalu said:

    BBC live headline is "Hug, but be cautious."

    Does that mean those who want to hug should frisk one another first?

    I think it means do it but make it a quickie.
    Or just stop at a hug (or am I misinterpreting?) :)
    i think it means we have reached (hopefully ) Peak State Nannying. FFS what a message for a government to send out
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.
    It's not only the media that is exaggerating Labour's poor performance, Labour itself is at it as well. It seems to me that the Labour vote stayed at home.
    Except turnout wasn't down compared to similar elections, was it?

    In Hartlepool the Tory winner in 2021 got such a high share she got MORE in absolute votes cast despite it being a by election than the winning Labour candidate did at the General Election.

    One amusing fact now of course is that the remaining Local Elections between now and the next election will be compared against when Theresa May was in charge but a much diminished character.

    So could the Tories be due further gains in the 2022 and 2023 locals?
    2023 - yes, one would think so. The Conservative Party had a pretty horrible 2019 electorally, getting just 29% in National Equivalent Vote share, which was the kind of number that Major was getting towards the end end. (Don't forget the Conservatives lost 1,330 Councillors that year. A gain of 500 wouldn't take them even half way back to 2015 levels.)

    2022 is a harder call. The Conservatives managed 35% NEV share and basically held flat. That being said there are a *lot* of Labour seats up that year in the cities, so it's possible.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    edited May 10
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,569
    BigRich said:

    In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20


    Are they meant to be % if so what are the others?

    Neither Working class MP's nor political careerists presumably. (ie a middle class GP that then becomes an MP etc)

    What would be interesting if if there are any MP's that currently fall into both 'Working class' and 'political careerist'. What did Angela Rayner do prior to being an MP?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,407
    The region of Brussels has decided to slow down the pace of vaccinations to build up stocks because they are worried about future deliveries.

    https://www.lalibre.be/regions/bruxelles/pourquoi-bruxelles-decide-t-elle-de-ralentir-le-rythme-de-la-campagne-de-vaccination-609932add8ad5816b4129d94
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,950

    Leon said:

    The Americans have discovered Holyrood, the building. An amusing thread

    ‘The Scottish Parliament is, truly, one of the ugliest buildings ever built.’

    https://twitter.com/lvcivs_mcmxci/status/1391096874543685632?s=21

    They’re not wrong. It’s shockingly bad. An obscene insult to one of the most serenely beautiful cities in the world. How did it happen? How did it cost so much???

    The amazing thing is that, despite costing £400m, it manages to look cheap. Like a po-mo Premier Inn on the outskirts of Basingstoke

    The worst public building erected in the UK - ever??

    You just wait until the indy Scotland outdoes that with its Freedom Centre.
    The one good argument against an English Parliament is that its building would end up being just as bad.

    Architects seem to have lost any semblance of taste over the last century.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,471
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:
    F1: only a rumour but Turkey may be off:
    https://twitter.com/FormulaNerds/status/1391734359544188931

    In tragic news, Monaco is still going ahead.

    You should go to the Monaco Grand Prix, the experience is wonderful.
    Anecdote. I once stayed at the Fairmont hotel in Monte. It’s far from the best hotel in the country - merely 4 star - but it DOES have the best views of the Grand Prix circuit.

    As a well known sextoy knapper I was given a hotel tour by the manager and he showed me the suite that George Lucas hires for every Grand Prix. Right over a notorious bend

    I asked the manager how much the suite costs, for that weekend, and he said ‘$15,000 a night. Plus breakfast’

    He wasn’t joking, either. They added breakfast to Lucas’ bill
    Well at least they didn't phrase it as "free Breakfast" like those "free" drinks in First Class.
    Indeed. But still. That moment when they finally close the airplane doors and you sink back into the buttery leather of your seat, in row 1, and a lovely soft young female voice says ‘champagne, Sir?’

    *quietly sobbing in NW1*
    It's an aeroplane.

    I've only flown business once and first-class never (the business was an upgrade) but free champagne is just tacky.
    ‘Tacky’??? First class London-Asia is about £3000 minimum, and often waaaaay more than that

    “Free” (and decent, and endless) champagne is a bare minimum. For the prices they charge - or charged - they should really throw in a naked Circassian slave girl
    In Graham Green's "Travels with my Aunt", Aunt Augusta worked out that you could drink the difference in price between (what was then) "First" and "Economy" between London and Paris if you put your mind to it.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,376

    Swipe Left to continue
    @AngelaRayner
    Well done to
    @MarkDrakeford
    and
    @WelshLabour
    for an amazing result in Wales.

    Mark set out policies that will make a difference to people's lives - like a pay rise for care workers - and campaigning with him it was clear how popular he is. Congratulations for a great campaign!

    As reported on Friday, LabourList understands that Rayner wanted Labour’s message in the May 2021 election campaign to be a real living wage for care workers but this idea was not adopted.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,950
    Floater said:
    Would be ironic if Macron, who tried to undermine democracy in Britain by sabotaging Brexit, ended up presiding over the end of it in France.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Worst public buildings in the UK

    1. Holyrood
    2. The British Library
    3. That’s it. Maybe the old Home Office, now the Ministry of Justice


    https://manchesterhistory.net/architecture/1970/102pettyfrance.html

    Add slough bus station to the list

    https://www.tatasteeleurope.com/ts/construction/case-studies/slough-bus-station

    cunningly designed so with any wind at all the rain comes in nicely under the tails so you get soaked waiting for a bus
    I quite like it. Bold. It’s hard to make Slough worse and they haven’t. I’ll take your word that it’s impractical
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692

    The region of Brussels has decided to slow down the pace of vaccinations to build up stocks because they are worried about future deliveries.

    https://www.lalibre.be/regions/bruxelles/pourquoi-bruxelles-decide-t-elle-de-ralentir-le-rythme-de-la-campagne-de-vaccination-609932add8ad5816b4129d94

    Hey, at least that suggests people still want to be vaccinated!

    (Of course, it's retarded to hold back any vaccine stocks. The single most important thing is to prevent spread, and that is best achieved by getting as many jabs in as many arms as possible.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,931

    Just got my vaccine marching orders from my GP.

    Booked in for this Sunday. Thrilled!

    Well done! Eagerly awaiting my appointment. Hoping that I'll be able to book my second within a few weeks too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,407
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Worst public buildings in the UK

    1. Holyrood
    2. The British Library
    3. That’s it. Maybe the old Home Office, now the Ministry of Justice


    https://manchesterhistory.net/architecture/1970/102pettyfrance.html

    Add slough bus station to the list

    https://www.tatasteeleurope.com/ts/construction/case-studies/slough-bus-station

    cunningly designed so with any wind at all the rain comes in nicely under the tails so you get soaked waiting for a bus
    I quite like it. Bold. It’s hard to make Slough worse and they haven’t. I’ll take your word that it’s impractical
    It looks like a couple of elephant trunks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,911
    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    The Americans have discovered Holyrood, the building. An amusing thread

    ‘The Scottish Parliament is, truly, one of the ugliest buildings ever built.’

    https://twitter.com/lvcivs_mcmxci/status/1391096874543685632?s=21

    They’re not wrong. It’s shockingly bad. An obscene insult to one of the most serenely beautiful cities in the world. How did it happen? How did it cost so much???

    The amazing thing is that, despite costing £400m, it manages to look cheap. Like a po-mo Premier Inn on the outskirts of Basingstoke

    The worst public building erected in the UK - ever??

    You just wait until the indy Scotland outdoes that with its Freedom Centre.
    The one good argument against an English Parliament is that its building would end up being just as bad.

    Architects seem to have lost any semblance of taste over the last century.
    Not necessarily. The Welsh Senedd (by Englishman Richard Rogers) is striking and beautiful. An adornment.


    https://senedd.wales/senedd-now/news/building-for-democracy-senedd-celebrates-tenth-anniversary-with-architects-lord-richard-rogers-and-ivan-harbour/
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,950
    edited May 10
    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    The Americans have discovered Holyrood, the building. An amusing thread

    ‘The Scottish Parliament is, truly, one of the ugliest buildings ever built.’

    https://twitter.com/lvcivs_mcmxci/status/1391096874543685632?s=21

    They’re not wrong. It’s shockingly bad. An obscene insult to one of the most serenely beautiful cities in the world. How did it happen? How did it cost so much???

    The amazing thing is that, despite costing £400m, it manages to look cheap. Like a po-mo Premier Inn on the outskirts of Basingstoke

    The worst public building erected in the UK - ever??

    You just wait until the indy Scotland outdoes that with its Freedom Centre.
    The one good argument against an English Parliament is that its building would end up being just as bad.

    Architects seem to have lost any semblance of taste over the last century.
    Not necessarily. The Welsh Senedd (by Englishman Richard Rogers) is striking and beautiful. An adornment.


    https://senedd.wales/senedd-now/news/building-for-democracy-senedd-celebrates-tenth-anniversary-with-architects-lord-richard-rogers-and-ivan-harbour/
    You just like it because Drakeford works there.

    I agree it's OK, much better than Holyrood, but nothing like, say, the Palace of Westminster or the US Congress. Or even the Berlin Reichstag.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,407
    Floater said:
    I do wonder if the French political system would be able to cope with a Le Pen election victory.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    edited May 10
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
    Anywhere near a ski resort?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Floater said:
    I do wonder if the French political system would be able to cope with a Le Pen election victory.
    France would cope OK. Not sure about its neighbours and allies.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421


    Swipe Left to continue
    @AngelaRayner
    Well done to
    @MarkDrakeford
    and
    @WelshLabour
    for an amazing result in Wales.

    Mark set out policies that will make a difference to people's lives - like a pay rise for care workers - and campaigning with him it was clear how popular he is. Congratulations for a great campaign!

    As reported on Friday, LabourList understands that Rayner wanted Labour’s message in the May 2021 election campaign to be a real living wage for care workers but this idea was not adopted.

    Considering care workers are actually part of county council adult social care that would actually make far more sense than NHS pay rise, since NHS staff are reasonably well paid with good terms and conditions.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    That looks awesome

    I strongly recommend Greenland by the way. It’s not easy to reach (you need to overnight in Iceland), but wow it’s amazing. And not expensive. Go to ilulissat on the west coast (skip the boozy depressing capital)

    A peak travel experience. The smoked wild salmon is the best in the world. They do gin and tonics with 3000 year old glacier ice. Chained huskies howl on the city outskirts all night. They are chained so they don’t eat the small children.

    There’s a special chasm reserved for old people to commit suicide. Icebergs shine like gold in the sunset. The Inuit gaze, wordlessly.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    I've always been of the view I'd rather spend £800 on a ticket rather than £3,800 on a ticket, for what is a 10-hour flight, and then spend the extra £3k I've saved on the time of a lifetime once I'm there.

    It's not something anyone normal chooses to spend money on unless you're swimming with too much cash.
    That being said... I'd rather spend £1,200 and travel a slightly longer route in business, than spend £1,200 for a shorter economy flight. (Especially if the journey is going to be 12+ hours)

    If you're willing to be creative about routing, and to choose airlines you've never heard of (or to invest some time into using miles creatively), you can often fly business class for economy money.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828

    In Graham Green's "Travels with my Aunt", Aunt Augusta worked out that you could drink the difference in price between (what was then) "First" and "Economy" between London and Paris if you put your mind to it.....

    The only plane I have ever been on that ran dry was Glasgow - New York.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,961

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    That's mostly just Sean though.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,208

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692

    Floater said:
    I do wonder if the French political system would be able to cope with a Le Pen election victory.
    France would cope OK. Not sure about its neighbours and allies.
    Le Pen is a lot less radical that Liga Nord.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    I've always been of the view I'd rather spend £800 on a ticket rather than £3,800 on a ticket, for what is a 10-hour flight, and then spend the extra £3k I've saved on the time of a lifetime once I'm there.

    It's not something anyone normal chooses to spend money on unless you're swimming with too much cash.
    I completely agree. There is something vulgar in flying first class for me. Sorry. (I'd take a free upgrade though!)
  • isamisam Posts: 38,047

    Mr. kinabalu, I think a quickie is something else...

    Wait, I have it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV_BPDi8Ems

    I love quickies, pre Covid I used to have a couple a week.

    I believe 'quickie' is how you pronounce this Johnny Foreigner word.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiche
    I had one in early Feb and now there's a bun in the oven
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,527

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Worst public buildings in the UK

    1. Holyrood
    2. The British Library
    3. That’s it. Maybe the old Home Office, now the Ministry of Justice


    https://manchesterhistory.net/architecture/1970/102pettyfrance.html

    Add slough bus station to the list

    https://www.tatasteeleurope.com/ts/construction/case-studies/slough-bus-station

    cunningly designed so with any wind at all the rain comes in nicely under the tails so you get soaked waiting for a bus
    I quite like it. Bold. It’s hard to make Slough worse and they haven’t. I’ll take your word that it’s impractical
    It looks like a couple of elephant trunks.
    I was going to wonder if you meant another part of the elephant, but you are absolutely right - it's the ending and the cross-section that do it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,216

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    My scrambled eggs would be accessible to pretty well everyone.
    And probably best without champagne.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,498

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
    Stayed in an ecolodge in the Panatanal, southern Brazil. You get woken at some ungodly hour by the vulnerable Hyacinth Macaws - a crazy blue giant of a parrot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyacinth_macaw

    It wouldn't be so bad if you hadn't been out most of the night on the back of a truck, looking for eye-shine from things such as ocelot and tapirs - and even weirder critters.....
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,523
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Worst public buildings in the UK

    1. Holyrood
    2. The British Library
    3. That’s it. Maybe the old Home Office, now the Ministry of Justice


    https://manchesterhistory.net/architecture/1970/102pettyfrance.html

    Add slough bus station to the list

    https://www.tatasteeleurope.com/ts/construction/case-studies/slough-bus-station

    cunningly designed so with any wind at all the rain comes in nicely under the tails so you get soaked waiting for a bus
    For the Stalinist vibe - Quarry House, Leeds?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,444
    Stocky said:

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    I've always been of the view I'd rather spend £800 on a ticket rather than £3,800 on a ticket, for what is a 10-hour flight, and then spend the extra £3k I've saved on the time of a lifetime once I'm there.

    It's not something anyone normal chooses to spend money on unless you're swimming with too much cash.
    I completely agree. There is something vulgar in flying first class for me. Sorry. (I'd take a free upgrade though!)
    Business Class I can understand - if you are busy and need to get work done on the flight, or if you don't have a day to recover upon arrival before you launch into meetings. As a large guy, trying to type on a laptop in economy when the person in front has reclined their seat is next to impossible.

    But my opinion is borne not of 10-hour flights, but from flying from US to Pakistan, which is more like 23-hours total with transfer time. Or from my time at the UN when I seemed to live on planes and in airports, racking up 250,000 air miles with BA in one 3-month period.

    I always jump at the Economy Plus option where that is available as a workable compromise.

    That said, I would never buy Business Class on my own dime. Instead, I'd buy the extra day or three at my destination.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,355
    edited May 10
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.
    It's not only the media that is exaggerating Labour's poor performance, Labour itself is at it as well. It seems to me that the Labour vote stayed at home.
    They are. And maybe plenty did. I think this is trough Labour and Starmer. Consequently going a bit contra atm, doing "Starmer Next PM" at close to 8. It's not that I think he will be, I actually don't think he'll ever make it to number ten, but I do see him riding this crisis out, staying as leader, and things getting closer between the parties before too long. Also I'm pretty certain Johnson won't be leaving, so the market really is a 2 horse race, and nearly 8 on one of them is real value. I reckon in a year from now he'll be trading at 4 tops* and I'll be able to lay back or use it as a platform for other bets. There's a risk of this being too clever-by-half and meta, and I do usually like to keep things more simple on the betting front, but there we are. I've done it now and I've told you and the whole of PB.com as well.

    Edit: * what a group, btw, what a group.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,266

    Floater said:
    I do wonder if the French political system would be able to cope with a Le Pen election victory.
    France would cope OK. Not sure about its neighbours and allies.
    The EU would be interesting if Le Pen wins in France while the Greens win in Germany.

    (probably will not happen)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,705
    What odds the Tories get a smaller vote share than in Hartlepool?
    Odds on I reckon.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828
    NEW Independent Monitoring Authority - a body set up to protect EU citizens rights post Brexit - "actively considering" statutory action against the Home Office over settled status concerns.

    Backlog of 320,000 applications according to latest govt data.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/10/eu-citizens-applying-for-settled-status-face-legal-limbo-due-to-backlog
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    I've always been of the view I'd rather spend £800 on a ticket rather than £3,800 on a ticket, for what is a 10-hour flight, and then spend the extra £3k I've saved on the time of a lifetime once I'm there.

    It's not something anyone normal chooses to spend money on unless you're swimming with too much cash.
    It's not an either or for some people.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,095
    rcs1000 said:

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    I've always been of the view I'd rather spend £800 on a ticket rather than £3,800 on a ticket, for what is a 10-hour flight, and then spend the extra £3k I've saved on the time of a lifetime once I'm there.

    It's not something anyone normal chooses to spend money on unless you're swimming with too much cash.
    That being said... I'd rather spend £1,200 and travel a slightly longer route in business, than spend £1,200 for a shorter economy flight. (Especially if the journey is going to be 12+ hours)

    If you're willing to be creative about routing, and to choose airlines you've never heard of (or to invest some time into using miles creatively), you can often fly business class for economy money.
    Plus airmiles for upgrades are an excellent way of making travel much more tolerable.

    I've had some cracking conversations in Club Europe. A few glasses of wine and a meal, with added conversation, tends to make short haul flights go past in the blink of an eye.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    rcs1000 said:

    The region of Brussels has decided to slow down the pace of vaccinations to build up stocks because they are worried about future deliveries.

    https://www.lalibre.be/regions/bruxelles/pourquoi-bruxelles-decide-t-elle-de-ralentir-le-rythme-de-la-campagne-de-vaccination-609932add8ad5816b4129d94

    Hey, at least that suggests people still want to be vaccinated!

    (Of course, it's retarded to hold back any vaccine stocks. The single most important thing is to prevent spread, and that is best achieved by getting as many jabs in as many arms as possible.)
    I wonder whether the 73,000 fans in Texas to see Canelo vs BJS were all vaxxed.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,047
    John Curtice, professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, analyses Labour's performance in the election.

    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1391762450630991877?s=21

    In short, Brexit has changed everything, and Labour shouldn’t sit about hoping things go back to normal whilst Boris takes the bull by the horns and gets on with it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828
    My last couple of trips to the US I bought premium economy tickets, then bought an upgrade for the return flight. Sleep the whole way back on a flat bed and avoid the worst of the jetlag.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    isam said:

    John Curtice, professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, analyses Labour's performance in the election.

    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1391762450630991877?s=21

    In short, Brexit has changed everything, and Labour shouldn’t sit about hoping things go back to normal whilst Boris takes the bull by the horns and gets on with it

    Congrats on your news, Sam.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,444
    Interesting graph from the FT on the new Indian variant. I guess within a week or two, we'll know just how well the vaccines are working against it:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666101651120128/photo/1
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648
    BigRich said:

    isam said:

    Mr. kinabalu, I think a quickie is something else...

    Wait, I have it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV_BPDi8Ems

    I love quickies, pre Covid I used to have a couple a week.

    I believe 'quickie' is how you pronounce this Johnny Foreigner word.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiche
    I had one in early Feb and now there's a bun in the oven
    Congratulations,
    Good to see you back posting BigRich.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828

    Kate Hoey not pulling her punches about the state of the Labour Party.....

    Makes a change from her whining about Brexit
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,266
    rcs1000 said:

    The region of Brussels has decided to slow down the pace of vaccinations to build up stocks because they are worried about future deliveries.

    https://www.lalibre.be/regions/bruxelles/pourquoi-bruxelles-decide-t-elle-de-ralentir-le-rythme-de-la-campagne-de-vaccination-609932add8ad5816b4129d94

    Hey, at least that suggests people still want to be vaccinated!

    (Of course, it's retarded to hold back any vaccine stocks. The single most important thing is to prevent spread, and that is best achieved by getting as many jabs in as many arms as possible.)
    I cant read the original article because my French is not good enough, but it does seem like a strange plan. given that it takes a few weeks in the body for the vaccine to reach its maximum strength, it would seem like - use everything you have got as soon as you have it. irrespective of delivery forecasts, is best.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,355

    In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20


    So this is saying one of the keys to the 97 landslide was getting shot of working class MPs and replacing them with middle class careerists?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,828
    TimT said:

    Interesting graph from the FT on the new Indian variant. I guess within a week or two, we'll know just how well the vaccines are working against it:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666101651120128/photo/1

    My US colleague said there was a story about a US doctor who had 2 doses, then flew to India to see his family. Now he's dead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692
    Scott_xP said:

    My last couple of trips to the US I bought premium economy tickets, then bought an upgrade for the return flight. Sleep the whole way back on a flat bed and avoid the worst of the jetlag.

    In the old days, if you were a Virgin Gold cardholder, then a return in Premium Economy to LA/SF would include almost exactly enough miles to upgrade the return element. You had to do the return upgrade "day of", and it was best to avoid travelling on Friday evening (when Upper Class was full), but it meant you could get the most important bit in a flat bed for "free".

    Unfortunately about five or six years ago, Virgin changed the rules so that when you upgraded a segment, you lost the miles from it. Which meant the trick no longer quite worked (albeit you could transfer Amex points to Virgin, which just about made it work).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,909

    Floater said:
    I do wonder if the French political system would be able to cope with a Le Pen election victory.
    Even if she won En Marche and Les Republicains would likely have more seats in the National Assembly than National Rally
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
    Stayed in an ecolodge in the Panatanal, southern Brazil. You get woken at some ungodly hour by the vulnerable Hyacinth Macaws - a crazy blue giant of a parrot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyacinth_macaw

    It wouldn't be so bad if you hadn't been out most of the night on the back of a truck, looking for eye-shine from things such as ocelot and tapirs - and even weirder critters.....
    That sounds awesome, Right up my street, Which eco lodge in the Pantanal was it? You ever used Naturetrek?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,047
    kinabalu said:

    In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20


    So this is saying one of the keys to the 97 landslide was getting shot of working class MPs and replacing them with middle class careerists?
    97 does seem to be about the right mix!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,444
    Scott_xP said:

    My last couple of trips to the US I bought premium economy tickets, then bought an upgrade for the return flight. Sleep the whole way back on a flat bed and avoid the worst of the jetlag.

    Nice tip. Thanks Scott
  • FossFoss Posts: 422
    edited May 10
    Brabin's taken the Chiltern but I don't think anyone has moved the writ yet.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,266
    Stocky said:

    BigRich said:

    isam said:

    Mr. kinabalu, I think a quickie is something else...

    Wait, I have it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV_BPDi8Ems

    I love quickies, pre Covid I used to have a couple a week.

    I believe 'quickie' is how you pronounce this Johnny Foreigner word.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiche
    I had one in early Feb and now there's a bun in the oven
    Congratulations,
    Good to see you back posting BigRich.
    Thanks,

    I stopped posting as I was getting frustrated over lockdown. didn't plan to be away for this long, but then had a bit of a busy then tragic few months, things have calmed down now, and I cant resist the banter on here at times of elections and analysis.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,692
    TimT said:

    Interesting graph from the FT on the new Indian variant. I guess within a week or two, we'll know just how well the vaccines are working against it:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666101651120128/photo/1

    Worth noting this bit: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666097909714947

    Given low community prevalence we only have to be catching a few tens of cases from people coming back from India to make it look rather more concerning than it is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,909
    edited May 10
    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs ie Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,327
    Scott_xP said:

    Kate Hoey not pulling her punches about the state of the Labour Party.....

    Makes a change from her whining about Brexit
    If only some other people joined her in ending their constant moaning about Brexit.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
    Doesn't help the Labour Party of course
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,648

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
    Stayed in an ecolodge in the Panatanal, southern Brazil. You get woken at some ungodly hour by the vulnerable Hyacinth Macaws - a crazy blue giant of a parrot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyacinth_macaw

    It wouldn't be so bad if you hadn't been out most of the night on the back of a truck, looking for eye-shine from things such as ocelot and tapirs - and even weirder critters.....
    Oh the memories! We did similar on safari in Africa looking for chameleons in the undergrowth (which glow white in the spotlight of the vehicle) and being bewildered by all the nightjars taking wing in front of us as we drove back to camp. No pangolin though, sadly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,428
    Scott_xP said:

    First LibDem email arguing only they can win Chesham & Amersham byelection off the Tories. No bar chart but you know it can't be far behind #natureishealing
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1391743940915777537

    Nothing controversial about making such a claim on this occasion.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,911
    rcs1000 said:

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    I've always been of the view I'd rather spend £800 on a ticket rather than £3,800 on a ticket, for what is a 10-hour flight, and then spend the extra £3k I've saved on the time of a lifetime once I'm there.

    It's not something anyone normal chooses to spend money on unless you're swimming with too much cash.
    That being said... I'd rather spend £1,200 and travel a slightly longer route in business, than spend £1,200 for a shorter economy flight. (Especially if the journey is going to be 12+ hours)

    If you're willing to be creative about routing, and to choose airlines you've never heard of (or to invest some time into using miles creatively), you can often fly business class for economy money.
    It's a simple cost-benefit analysis for me. I might pay, say, £1,200 for a business class ticket next for £800 for economy for a 10-hour flight. £40 per hour extra might be justifiable for comfortable leg room, nice meals, a soft seat and personalised service.

    But, I'd never play quintuple the ticket price for it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 11,386

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
    Stayed in an ecolodge in the Panatanal, southern Brazil. You get woken at some ungodly hour by the vulnerable Hyacinth Macaws - a crazy blue giant of a parrot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyacinth_macaw

    It wouldn't be so bad if you hadn't been out most of the night on the back of a truck, looking for eye-shine from things such as ocelot and tapirs - and even weirder critters.....
    I saw a Hoatzin bird in the Peruvian amazon. About two hours downriver from Iquitos

    https://www.aquaexpeditions.com/blog/amazon/hoatzin-bird-amazon/

    I also saw a tapir in a swimming pool, caught a piranha, marvelled at those HUGE blue morpho butterflies (like fluttering neon), and I got attacked by fire ants so badly I had to strip nearly naked to get them off, making my guide laugh heartily, until he was attacked and had to do the same. OMG the centipedes
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,335
    rcs1000 said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    kingbongo said:

    I have followed the UK elections via the Danish media where Sturgeon is praised for wanting to help her country escape Boris Johnson and it seems the the British media are exagerrating Labour's poor performance - the real story is that having won some mayoral contests and Wales Labour's position is strengthened - that's a right wing Danish paper's take anyway. Not sure how close that is to the analysis of PBs finest!

    Excellent take. Cool detached Scandi thinking at its finest.
    It's not only the media that is exaggerating Labour's poor performance, Labour itself is at it as well. It seems to me that the Labour vote stayed at home.
    Except turnout wasn't down compared to similar elections, was it?

    In Hartlepool the Tory winner in 2021 got such a high share she got MORE in absolute votes cast despite it being a by election than the winning Labour candidate did at the General Election.

    One amusing fact now of course is that the remaining Local Elections between now and the next election will be compared against when Theresa May was in charge but a much diminished character.

    So could the Tories be due further gains in the 2022 and 2023 locals?
    2023 - yes, one would think so. The Conservative Party had a pretty horrible 2019 electorally, getting just 29% in National Equivalent Vote share, which was the kind of number that Major was getting towards the end end. (Don't forget the Conservatives lost 1,330 Councillors that year. A gain of 500 wouldn't take them even half way back to 2015 levels.)

    2022 is a harder call. The Conservatives managed 35% NEV share and basically held flat. That being said there are a *lot* of Labour seats up that year in the cities, so it's possible.
    Yes though I always take NEV with a pinch of salt. What's noteworthy is that 2018 NEV had Corbyn's Labour also with 35%.

    Its hard to imagine right now Keir's Labour being tied with the Tories in NEV by this time next year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 88,909

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
    Doesn't help the Labour Party of course
    It does as the LDs are more likely to back Starmer's Labour Party over Boris' Tories if 2024 produces a hung parliament
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,444
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Interesting graph from the FT on the new Indian variant. I guess within a week or two, we'll know just how well the vaccines are working against it:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666101651120128/photo/1

    Worth noting this bit: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666097909714947

    Given low community prevalence we only have to be catching a few tens of cases from people coming back from India to make it look rather more concerning than it is.
    Thanks. I had already had that thought. What I was thinking was how useful this data will be in proving the effectiveness of vaccines and helping persuade the hesitant (as opposed to anti-vaxxers) to get the current vaccine options asap.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,482
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
    Doesn't help the Labour Party of course
    It does as the LDs are more likely to back Starmer's Labour Party over Boris' Tories if 2024 produces a hung parliament
    Exactly
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,444
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
    Stayed in an ecolodge in the Panatanal, southern Brazil. You get woken at some ungodly hour by the vulnerable Hyacinth Macaws - a crazy blue giant of a parrot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyacinth_macaw

    It wouldn't be so bad if you hadn't been out most of the night on the back of a truck, looking for eye-shine from things such as ocelot and tapirs - and even weirder critters.....
    Oh the memories! We did similar on safari in Africa looking for chameleons in the undergrowth (which glow white in the spotlight of the vehicle) and being bewildered by all the nightjars taking wing in front of us as we drove back to camp. No pangolin though, sadly.
    Oil birds in Trinidad.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,508

    PB at its eclectic best today. Having spent the weekend celebrating the demise of the Labour Party because it has lost touch with its northern, working class roots, many of the same posters are musing about exotic holidays in the Caribbean, the quality of champagne on business class flights, how best to serve scrambled eggs, and other tales of wealth and fortune. From Hartlepool to Harrods in the blink of an eye.

    Hey, some of us are the epitome of social mobility, me being the grandson of immigrants to this country the prime example.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 24,355
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20


    So this is saying one of the keys to the 97 landslide was getting shot of working class MPs and replacing them with middle class careerists?
    97 does seem to be about the right mix!
    "We don't need any more dirty overall types."

    The great Mandy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 62,335
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
    Doesn't help the Labour Party of course
    It does as the LDs are more likely to back Starmer's Labour Party over Boris' Tories if 2024 produces a hung parliament
    That's what people said in 2009.

    If LD seats are in Cameroon areas, then even in a Hung Parliament it might end up depending upon the results like it did in 2010. Especially now Brexit won't be an issue anymore.

    Davey was comfortable in the Coalition.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,212
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    In fairness the rot had set in well before the current travails.....

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1391753700096491521?s=20


    So this is saying one of the keys to the 97 landslide was getting shot of working class MPs and replacing them with middle class careerists?
    97 does seem to be about the right mix!
    "We don't need any more dirty overall types."

    The great Mandy.
    He succeeded though because now it and its supporters are mostly lawyers and accountants.

    You can't kick them out, can you?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,444

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Poor Roger will need to move....I hear hartlepool is good
    Given the topics being discussed here I misread that as Pol Roger.
    Me too. Lol. We’ve got the Luxury Travel Jones BAD
    I guess we could play around with definition of luxury travel. In recent years we have prioritised location and stayed in eco-lodges in prime spots. Eco lodges can be quite splendid. This can be a lot cheaper than luxury places to stay and it puts one closer to nature. Who spends a lot of time in their room anyway? This tactic has worked for us in Sri Lanka, Mexico and on safari in South Africa.
    Yes, eco-lodges are often great. And luxury is often pointless

    This place in Greenland is fucking sensational: an eco lodge next to one of the world’s most active glaciers. Quite cheap,(but you have to get there).

    If you do sleep there you will probably be 50km from the next human (other than those in the lodge). It is decidedly eerie

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g609123-d2663317-Reviews-Glacier_Lodge_Eqi-Ilulissat_Qaasuitsup_Municipality.html?m=19905
    Thanks for that.

    This is the one I have my eye on. Sheldon Chalet in Alaska. Helicopter to reach it. It was features in a Simon Reeve programme:

    https://www.sheldonchalet.com/
    Stayed at a lovely airbnb ecolodge in Utah. Nice little money maker for the owner.
    Stayed in an ecolodge in the Panatanal, southern Brazil. You get woken at some ungodly hour by the vulnerable Hyacinth Macaws - a crazy blue giant of a parrot.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyacinth_macaw

    It wouldn't be so bad if you hadn't been out most of the night on the back of a truck, looking for eye-shine from things such as ocelot and tapirs - and even weirder critters.....
    May have stayed in the same location many years back. Our lack of appreciation of the macaws was the result of way too many caipirinhas the night before.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,692
    Scott_xP said:

    Kate Hoey not pulling her punches about the state of the Labour Party.....

    Makes a change from her whining about Brexit
    !Klaxon! Self-awareness failure! !Klaxon!
This discussion has been closed.