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Why the Tories have LESS than a 90% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election – politic

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  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Andy_JS said:

    Chesham & Amersham is the third-least deprived constituency in the country according to this table. CHB's backyard of NE Hampshire is number two, with Wokingham at number one.

    http://automaticknowledge.org/images/uk-deprivation-constituency-2021-v1-border.png

    Should be fertile ground for leftie lovvies who can afford large tax rises.

    See Cambridge turning red ..
    I imagine the Tories will send Sunak for a couple of visits to Chesham & Amersham while Boris heads up to Batley.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,214

    Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham.

    Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. Which he doesn’t.

    2019 Results:

    Con, 55.4
    LDm, 26.3
    Lab, 12.9
    Grn, 5.5

    To win, the Liberals need to pick up, say, 20% of the Tory vote and 50% of the Lab/Green vote.

    V difficult.

    Labour has to fight Chesham seriously. Obviously it has no chance of winning or even finishing second but there is a serious risk of it finishing fourth, behind the Greens. Given that Batley is far from a banker to hold, to be beaten by the Greens in C&A would just add to the narrative of a party going nowhere (or backwards).

    By the way, there is another parliamentary by-election next week, in a seat Labour needs to win if it's serious about recovering in Scotland (they came within 200 votes in 2017).
    Surely they treat Chesham & Amersham like they did Newbury and Christchurch by elections in 1993 where they polled 2% in each.
    If they were double-digits ahead in the opinion polls and winning other elections happily - and were the Greens not taking core Labour votes in a worryingly large number of places - yes. But Labour doesn't have that luxury at the moment.

    In Newbury (and Christchurch, Winchester etc), Labour could say "our voters made a tactical decision" with the implicit follow-on "which will be replicated in reverse to Labour's advantage in many other places; that won't necessarily apply in C&A because it's not clear Labour can command such a pre-eminent position on the left-of-centre - and if it can't, then that brings into question how tactical these Lab-to-Grn/LD votes are.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

    Hmm.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570
    HYUFD said:

    all university students to return to in person teaching.

    Term has all but finished
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,309

    The start of Priti Patel’s leadership campaign?

    @pritipatel
    On this day in 1940, Winston Churchill became Prime Minister for the first time. A truly great Briton – and a former Home Secretary too.”


    https://twitter.com/pritipatel/status/1391783773788950530

    Not that I buy it, but I happened to glance at a copy of the Sunday Express yesterday. There was some gushing coverage of her. Presumably she's already grooming the editorial staff.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787

    Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

    Hmm.

    What did he say? I want all this crap GONE
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,892

    A single dose of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine lowers a person’s risk of death from Covid-19 by 80 per cent - a figure that rises to 97 per cent for two shots of the Pfizer jab, new analysis shows.


    The latest data, from Public Health England, further highlights the effectiveness of the UK’s two main vaccines in protecting against coronavirus. According to estimates, the jabs have already saved at least 10,000 lives since the beginning of the rollout.

    Separate analysis from PHE also confirms that one dose of the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine is highly effective in reducing the risk of hospitalisation, especially in those aged 70 and over.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-pfizer-b1845062.html

    And, as usual for journalists, no link to the actual study or data.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,544

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First LibDem email arguing only they can win Chesham & Amersham byelection off the Tories. No bar chart but you know it can't be far behind #natureishealing
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1391743940915777537

    Nothing controversial about making such a claim on this occasion.
    I don't think you win "off" anyone . I think the word is "from".
    You do if the ball bounces off them into the goal, etc. I suppose the psephological equivalent wouild be to win off a Tory/UKIP or Tory/Labour split. Not so easy now.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
    Doesn't help the Labour Party of course
    It does as the LDs are more likely to back Starmer's Labour Party over Boris' Tories if 2024 produces a hung parliament
    That's what people said in 2009.

    If LD seats are in Cameroon areas, then even in a Hung Parliament it might end up depending upon the results like it did in 2010. Especially now Brexit won't be an issue anymore.

    Davey was comfortable in the Coalition.
    LD voters and LD members want to return to the single market or as closely aligned to it as possible, there is no prospect of that under Boris who LDs hate in a way they did not hate Cameron, the LDs will back Labour now Corbyn has gone whoever has most seats.

    The Tories have to win another majority or enough seats to stay in government with the DUP in 2024 to remain in office
    Davey is not LD members.

    If the Tories end up significantly north of 300 MPs but shy of a majority, then its entirely possible a Rishi or other led Tory Party could get at the very least Confidence from Davey's LDs. They might claim Boris's scalp as part of the agreement, a price the Tories would pay to maintain control of Downing Street.
    Davey would face an immediate vote of confidence if he did that and likely lose the leadership to say Layla Moran.

    In any case the price of LD support would be single market membership or as close as possible to it which no Tory leader could agree for a generation as it would mean immediately loss of the Red Wall seats again and mass defections of Leave voters back to Reform UK and UKIP
    I seriously doubt the LDs would arbitrarily ask for single market membership unless things were looking economically glum. It would result in too much upheaval AGAIN.
    The LDs whole core message at the moment is based on being anti Boris' 'hard Brexit' which is why they voted against his Brexit deal, of course they would refuse to support the Tories if there was anything less than single market alignment and it is absurd to suggest otherwise. They would lose almost all their voters to Labour and the Greens if they did not
    Do we know what the LD's "core" national message is right now?

    I voted Lib Dems on Thursday and there was no mention of "Brexit" on any literature.
    It was a local election, based on the local LD message of no new housing anywhere at any time
    Yes. So I disagree with you. I don't think the LDs would arbitrarily ask for single market alignment unless the economy was looking rocky. If the economy is booming, even the most ardent remainers are going to be talking about other things. You're discussing the last war.
    LD voters nationally and LD members are ideologically anti Brexit and ideologically anti Boris' Brexit in particular, if they were not they would be voting Tory.

    It does not matter what the economy looks like in 2024, they will not support the Tories unless they move to a softer Brexit deal with the EU at minimum
    Rubbish. Brexit is over. It's done. They may not support the Tories because they are anti Boris but that doesn't mean they want to reopen the can of worms.

    If Brexit is by and large going well by 2024, there will be no demand for single market or whatever, the focus will be on other issues.
    Why are they anti Boris? As they are anti his Brexit Deal mainly.

    That is the defining issue which differentiates the LDs from the Tories at the moment, opposition to a hard Brexit, they are not going to back down on that and it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

    To stay in power in a hung parliament the Tories would have to win over the DUP again and try and remove the border in the Irish Sea, the LDs will not touch them with a bargepole while they remain a party of hard Brexit under Boris
    Well I think you're wrong.

    It's not just Brexit, it's everything surrounding Brexit and the political realignment that has occured. I think that once the immigration system has bedded in and trade has stabilised with the EU, no party will be proposing to rip it up and start again. It will be mere tinkering around the edges, and perhaps a change to the NI protocol, but that's it. Maybe we'll join Erasmus and have closer integration in some areas, but no wholesale change.

    Of course if the economy is in the doldrums, then all bets are off.
    So on that basis you think the LDs will effectively merge themselves into the Tories too then
    Are you that lacking in imagination that "Brexit" is the only differentiator you can fathom between the Conservative Party and the Lib Dems?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,135

    HYUFD said:

    all university students to return to in person teaching.

    Term has all but finished
    Yes. My eldest has finished a 3 year degree. Slightly less than 5 of the 9 scheduled terms...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    What an infinitely depressing poll for the Left.

    lol
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Leon said:

    Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

    Hmm.

    What did he say? I want all this crap GONE
    He said "we will be laying out what the world will look like once we get to June 21st.."

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    all university students to return to in person teaching.

    Term has all but finished
    Yes. My eldest has finished a 3 year degree. Slightly less than 5 of the 9 scheduled terms...
    I have exams starting Wednesday and finish next week...
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    all university students to return to in person teaching.

    Term has all but finished
    Yes. My eldest has finished a 3 year degree. Slightly less than 5 of the 9 scheduled terms...
    I have exams starting Wednesday and finish next week...
    Best of luck Mr Gallowgate
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.
  • FossFoss Posts: 437
    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She's already gone.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570
    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She has already gone
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,792
    edited May 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
    Doesn't help the Labour Party of course
    It does as the LDs are more likely to back Starmer's Labour Party over Boris' Tories if 2024 produces a hung parliament
    That's what people said in 2009.

    If LD seats are in Cameroon areas, then even in a Hung Parliament it might end up depending upon the results like it did in 2010. Especially now Brexit won't be an issue anymore.

    Davey was comfortable in the Coalition.
    LD voters and LD members want to return to the single market or as closely aligned to it as possible, there is no prospect of that under Boris who LDs hate in a way they did not hate Cameron, the LDs will back Labour now Corbyn has gone whoever has most seats.

    The Tories have to win another majority or enough seats to stay in government with the DUP in 2024 to remain in office
    Davey is not LD members.

    If the Tories end up significantly north of 300 MPs but shy of a majority, then its entirely possible a Rishi or other led Tory Party could get at the very least Confidence from Davey's LDs. They might claim Boris's scalp as part of the agreement, a price the Tories would pay to maintain control of Downing Street.
    Davey would face an immediate vote of confidence if he did that and likely lose the leadership to say Layla Moran.

    In any case the price of LD support would be single market membership or as close as possible to it which no Tory leader could agree for a generation as it would mean immediately loss of the Red Wall seats again and mass defections of Leave voters back to Reform UK and UKIP
    I seriously doubt the LDs would arbitrarily ask for single market membership unless things were looking economically glum. It would result in too much upheaval AGAIN.
    The LDs whole core message at the moment is based on being anti Boris' 'hard Brexit' which is why they voted against his Brexit deal, of course they would refuse to support the Tories if there was anything less than single market alignment and it is absurd to suggest otherwise. They would lose almost all their voters to Labour and the Greens if they did not
    Do we know what the LD's "core" national message is right now?

    I voted Lib Dems on Thursday and there was no mention of "Brexit" on any literature.
    It was a local election, based on the local LD message of no new housing anywhere at any time
    Yes. So I disagree with you. I don't think the LDs would arbitrarily ask for single market alignment unless the economy was looking rocky. If the economy is booming, even the most ardent remainers are going to be talking about other things. You're discussing the last war.
    LD voters nationally and LD members are ideologically anti Brexit and ideologically anti Boris' Brexit in particular, if they were not they would be voting Tory.

    It does not matter what the economy looks like in 2024, they will not support the Tories unless they move to a softer Brexit deal with the EU at minimum
    Rubbish. Brexit is over. It's done. They may not support the Tories because they are anti Boris but that doesn't mean they want to reopen the can of worms.

    If Brexit is by and large going well by 2024, there will be no demand for single market or whatever, the focus will be on other issues.
    Why are they anti Boris? As they are anti his Brexit Deal mainly.

    That is the defining issue which differentiates the LDs from the Tories at the moment, opposition to a hard Brexit, they are not going to back down on that and it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

    To stay in power in a hung parliament the Tories would have to win over the DUP again and try and remove the border in the Irish Sea, the LDs will not touch them with a bargepole while they remain a party of hard Brexit under Boris
    Well I think you're wrong.

    It's not just Brexit, it's everything surrounding Brexit and the political realignment that has occured. I think that once the immigration system has bedded in and trade has stabilised with the EU, no party will be proposing to rip it up and start again. It will be mere tinkering around the edges, and perhaps a change to the NI protocol, but that's it. Maybe we'll join Erasmus and have closer integration in some areas, but no wholesale change.

    Of course if the economy is in the doldrums, then all bets are off.
    So on that basis you think the LDs will effectively merge themselves into the Tories too then
    Are you that lacking in imagination that "Brexit" is the only differentiator you can fathom between the Conservative Party and the Lib Dems?
    At the moment as far as I can see it effectively is nationally, bar the LDs opposed compulsory vaccine passports which the government did not introduce anyway
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,294

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    Keith Stormer
  • The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,128

    Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham.

    Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. Which he doesn’t.

    2019 Results:

    Con, 55.4
    LDm, 26.3
    Lab, 12.9
    Grn, 5.5

    To win, the Liberals need to pick up, say, 20% of the Tory vote and 50% of the Lab/Green vote.

    V difficult.

    Labour has to fight Chesham seriously. Obviously it has no chance of winning or even finishing second but there is a serious risk of it finishing fourth, behind the Greens. Given that Batley is far from a banker to hold, to be beaten by the Greens in C&A would just add to the narrative of a party going nowhere (or backwards).

    By the way, there is another parliamentary by-election next week, in a seat Labour needs to win if it's serious about recovering in Scotland (they came within 200 votes in 2017).
    Surely they treat Chesham & Amersham like they did Newbury and Christchurch by elections in 1993 where they polled 2% in each.
    If they were double-digits ahead in the opinion polls and winning other elections happily - and were the Greens not taking core Labour votes in a worryingly large number of places - yes. But Labour doesn't have that luxury at the moment.

    In Newbury (and Christchurch, Winchester etc), Labour could say "our voters made a tactical decision" with the implicit follow-on "which will be replicated in reverse to Labour's advantage in many other places; that won't necessarily apply in C&A because it's not clear Labour can command such a pre-eminent position on the left-of-centre - and if it can't, then that brings into question how tactical these Lab-to-Grn/LD votes are.
    Labour does not have the luxury of ignoring the Lib Dems. A Labour government without them is beyond unlikely.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,585
    Leon said:

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    What an infinitely depressing poll for the Left.

    lol
    No change in the underlying stasis, consistent with all recent polls: Tory 42, Lab 36

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,135

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    all university students to return to in person teaching.

    Term has all but finished
    Yes. My eldest has finished a 3 year degree. Slightly less than 5 of the 9 scheduled terms...
    I have exams starting Wednesday and finish next week...
    Best of luck with them!
    Eldest didn't even get that. First year exams only.
    My youngest has the most GCSE's in the family despite never sitting an exam.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,097

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just got my vaccine marching orders from my GP.

    Booked in for this Sunday. Thrilled!

    Well done! Eagerly awaiting my appointment. Hoping that I'll be able to book my second within a few weeks too.
    Not to play one-up on you, Max, but I've had my 2nd jab now and am therefore pretty much immune. And what a boost it gives you. I feel so strong, so powerful. Gonna go out there soon and give all the people a big fat kiss. I'll kiss the men, I'll kiss the beautiful women, I'll kiss EVERYONE on the Finchley Road!
    Careful, there's some very dodgy people on Finchley Road.
    Avoid 788-790 Finchley Road ...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570

    The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

    That's ridiculous
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She has already gone

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She has already gone
    I am surprised at that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    all university students to return to in person teaching.

    Term has all but finished
    Yes. My eldest has finished a 3 year degree. Slightly less than 5 of the 9 scheduled terms...
    I have exams starting Wednesday and finish next week...
    Best of luck Mr Gallowgate
    Thank you very much! I feel pretty prepared though so it should be fine
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787

    Leon said:

    Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

    Hmm.

    What did he say? I want all this crap GONE
    He said "we will be laying out what the world will look like once we get to June 21st.."

    Hmm indeed
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

    Hmm.

    What did he say? I want all this crap GONE
    He said "we will be laying out what the world will look like once we get to June 21st.."

    Hmm indeed
    Everything is awful forever
  • FossFoss Posts: 437
    edited May 2021
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She has already gone

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She has already gone
    I am surprised at that.
    It's a mayoral + PCC role and the PCC element precludes double jobbing (apparently).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,128
    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,381
    edited May 2021
    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    1) She's already gone

    2) Not a good precedent, because the law prohibits her from being concurrently an MP and West Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,574

    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?

    Hope so
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,135
    edited May 2021

    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?

    Didnt the SNP win 50% + in the constituency, as recently as Thursday?
    Edit. Oops it doesn't seem to be contiguous.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

    Hmm.

    What did he say? I want all this crap GONE
    He said "we will be laying out what the world will look like once we get to June 21st.."

    Hmm indeed
    Not he said they would be laying them out in a couple of weeks and whether "certification would actually be needed."
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    What an infinitely depressing poll for the Left.

    lol
    No change in the underlying stasis, consistent with all recent polls: Tory 42, Lab 36

    Labour overstated is most likely. They are in a shocking mess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,313

    The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

    That's ridiculous
    No the government have got this right.

    UEFA wanted loads of sponsors, hangers on, and media to be allowed to come over without having to quarantine.
    I presume they also want some special tax permissions as well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Boris rowing back on Step 4 being the end of restrictions.

    Hmm.

    What did he say? I want all this crap GONE
    He said "we will be laying out what the world will look like once we get to June 21st.."

    Hmm indeed
    Everything is awful forever
    If they see a risk from ANY circulating Covid then I don't see how we ever exit from ALL restrictions
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    all university students to return to in person teaching.

    Term has all but finished
    Yes. My eldest has finished a 3 year degree. Slightly less than 5 of the 9 scheduled terms...
    I have exams starting Wednesday and finish next week...
    Best of luck Mr Gallowgate
    Thank you very much! I feel pretty prepared though so it should be fine
    Good luck .
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,214
    edited May 2021
    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She legally couldn't stay as an MP, even if she hadn't already quit.

    The W Yorks mayor has PCC powers. You cannot serve both as a PCC and an MP. Johnson, as London mayor (as Jarvis in S Yorks) didn't have those powers. London is a bit of an oddity in that respect as the mayor shares his powers with the Home Sec but it seems that's sufficient to allow double-hatting.

    EDIT - I see TSE has already said this. Must type faster.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,294
    I'd love to know if the Bolton outbreak is spreading amongst the vaxxed or the unvaxxed.
    If it's the unvaxxed and they've been eligible, it's their own stupid fault.
  • justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    1) She's already gone

    2) Not a good precedent, because the law prohibits here from being concurrently an MP and West Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/three-hundreds-of-chiltern--10
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She legally couldn't stay as an MP, even if she hadn't already quit.

    The W Yorks mayor has PCC powers. You cannot serve both as a PCC and an MP. Johnson, as London mayor (as Jarvis in S Yorks) didn't have those powers. London is a bit of an oddity in that respect as the mayor shares his powers with the Home Sec but it seems that's sufficient to allow double-hatting.

    EDIT - I see TSE has already said this. Must type faster.

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She legally couldn't stay as an MP, even if she hadn't already quit.

    The W Yorks mayor has PCC powers. You cannot serve both as a PCC and an MP. Johnson, as London mayor (as Jarvis in S Yorks) didn't have those powers. London is a bit of an oddity in that respect as the mayor shares his powers with the Home Sec but it seems that's sufficient to allow double-hatting.

    EDIT - I see TSE has already said this. Must type faster.
    Thanks for that!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,544

    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?

    There are a Unionist, a UKIP, and a Reform Uk candidate. Lots of choice for Tory types, not so much for indy types.

    And - all other things equal - you'd need about 2/3 of Tory + LD to vote Labour.

    Actually bump that up a little as no Green this time, so that is some TV for the SNP (not a lot).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,320

    The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

    That's fine as long as Portugal doesn't also get red listed.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Blimey - Boris says moving to "common sense" on Covid.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,313
    edited May 2021
    MaxPB said:

    The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

    That's fine as long as Portugal doesn't also get red listed.
    I am surprised nobody has pointed out how stupid it is that Spain is on the red list, but Portugal and Gibraltar aren't, so it is trivial to go on holiday to Spain if you choose to do so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,313

    Blimey - Boris says moving to "common sense" on Covid.

    TOOOOOOO CONFUSING.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,654
    "About 2,000 serving French military personnel have signed a letter to President Macron warning that France is on the brink of collapse and civil war because the state has “surrendered” to radical Muslims.

    The online letter follows an incendiary threat of a possible military takeover two weeks ago from 20 retired generals and hundreds of former officers that was backed by Marine Le Pen, the far right leader. The armed forces are taking disciplinary action against 20 serving personnel who signed the first letter." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/civil-war-is-brewing-warn-serving-soldiers-in-open-letter-to-macron-n90nb05tj
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,313
    edited May 2021
    Oh FFS, Tom Newton Dunn asking a twattish question....these journalists just get worse.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    No new guidance on "working from home" until the end of the month.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 195
    I usually defend the press, but these questions are so poor... who will you hug first, ffs... will anyone push him on the late red flagging of India given the jump in variant numbers...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787
    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,135
    PM still "pretty certain" people will go back to work as before.
    Not sure everyone is in agreement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,425
    edited May 2021

    The option of moving the Champions League final to Portugal instead of Wembley Stadium is looking increasingly likely after talks between Uefa and the British government failed to overcome some major issues.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/champions-league-final-could-be-played-in-portugal-instead-of-wembley-8nbfw9sv9

    That's ridiculous
    No the government have got this right.

    UEFA wanted loads of sponsors, hangers on, and media to be allowed to come over without having to quarantine.
    I presume they also want some special tax permissions as well.
    All UEFA's revenue goes through Switzerland, where they (and FIFA) have bespoke agreements with the Swiss tax authorities.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,654

    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?

    Why should Labour win it when the SNP have a 13% majority?
  • pingping Posts: 1,652
    edited May 2021
    “We regret ‘creating problems’, say Colonial petroleum pipeline hackers“

    https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.ft.com/content/0afb53f0-f382-442a-9a32-02824ce8bb70

    Drone the bastards.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 937

    Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham.

    Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. Which he doesn’t.

    2019 Results:

    Con, 55.4
    LDm, 26.3
    Lab, 12.9
    Grn, 5.5

    To win, the Liberals need to pick up, say, 20% of the Tory vote and 50% of the Lab/Green vote.

    V difficult.

    Labour has to fight Chesham seriously. Obviously it has no chance of winning or even finishing second but there is a serious risk of it finishing fourth, behind the Greens. Given that Batley is far from a banker to hold, to be beaten by the Greens in C&A would just add to the narrative of a party going nowhere (or backwards).

    By the way, there is another parliamentary by-election next week, in a seat Labour needs to win if it's serious about recovering in Scotland (they came within 200 votes in 2017).
    Surely they treat Chesham & Amersham like they did Newbury and Christchurch by elections in 1993 where they polled 2% in each.
    If they were double-digits ahead in the opinion polls and winning other elections happily - and were the Greens not taking core Labour votes in a worryingly large number of places - yes. But Labour doesn't have that luxury at the moment.

    In Newbury (and Christchurch, Winchester etc), Labour could say "our voters made a tactical decision" with the implicit follow-on "which will be replicated in reverse to Labour's advantage in many other places; that won't necessarily apply in C&A because it's not clear Labour can command such a pre-eminent position on the left-of-centre - and if it can't, then that brings into question how tactical these Lab-to-Grn/LD votes are.
    Does that make sense?
  • dixiedean said:

    PM still "pretty certain" people will go back to work as before.
    Not sure everyone is in agreement.

    I'm going back to the office for 2 days a week from the 5th of July.

    Then 3 days a week from the 20th of September.

    Then working from home 13th of December through to mid February 2022.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Blimey - Boris says moving to "common sense" on Covid.

    Very much the comments of a PM that wants to move on from COVID
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,128
    edited May 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?

    Why should Labour win it when the SNP have a 13% majority?
    Unionist tactical voting.
    New leadership from Anas.

    I’m not, by the way, saying they *will*, but that they *should* if we are see any proof that Labour are viable north of the border.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,792
    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Though 'Ravindra Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge and one of the study’s authors, told a press conference on Monday the variant discovered in India has mutations that "enable immune escape" and that "we should be assuming it’s as transmissible" as the one first identified in the UK. To be sure, the vaccines "will still protect against severe disease,” he added.'

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,654
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd love to know if the Bolton outbreak is spreading amongst the vaxxed or the unvaxxed.
    If it's the unvaxxed and they've been eligible, it's their own stupid fault.

    99% chance it's the unvaxxed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,590

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    But, the wallpaper?
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Andy_JS said:

    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?

    Why should Labour win it when the SNP have a 13% majority?
    Unionist tactical voting.
    New leadership from Anas.

    I’m not, by the way, saying they *will*, but that they *should* if we are see any proof that Labour are viable north of the border.
    Sarwar was the biggest impediment to tactical voting.

  • Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    What utter bollocks as usual from Zero Hedge, from the WHO scientist they quote.

    I have been misquoted. I said B1.617 is more transmissible, based on which it is a VOC. There is no data on its impact on diagnostics, therapeutics or vaccine effectiveness yet.
    @WHO updating variant data continously

    https://twitter.com/doctorsoumya/status/1391783186926084098
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,658
    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Not what Whitty said.....
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,393
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She legally couldn't stay as an MP, even if she hadn't already quit.

    The W Yorks mayor has PCC powers. You cannot serve both as a PCC and an MP. Johnson, as London mayor (as Jarvis in S Yorks) didn't have those powers. London is a bit of an oddity in that respect as the mayor shares his powers with the Home Sec but it seems that's sufficient to allow double-hatting.

    EDIT - I see TSE has already said this. Must type faster.

    justin124 said:

    Johnson's combined his position as London Mayor and MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip for more than a year - May 2015 - May 2016 . That gives Brabin a good precedent were she inclined to delay her departure.

    She legally couldn't stay as an MP, even if she hadn't already quit.

    The W Yorks mayor has PCC powers. You cannot serve both as a PCC and an MP. Johnson, as London mayor (as Jarvis in S Yorks) didn't have those powers. London is a bit of an oddity in that respect as the mayor shares his powers with the Home Sec but it seems that's sufficient to allow double-hatting.

    EDIT - I see TSE has already said this. Must type faster.
    Thanks for that!
    The situation is quite opaque. The role of the PCC is 'subsumed' in that of the mayor but she can choose a deputy who will provide assistance. What I think this means is that the Mayor is the legal officer but the deputy effectively is in operational charge by giving a policy framework to the Chief Constable. Each of the candidates made public their choice of deputy before the election. I need to check but I think Brabin nominated the existing PCC.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    ...
    RobD said:

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    But, the wallpaper?
    Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,654
    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

    Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

    Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

    Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

    Much truth in this. Assume for a moment that voters are sorts of spectrums, which can be described in a number of ways: from richest to poorest, from PhD to no qualifications; Remain and Rejoin to Ardent Hard Brexit and so on.

    To win general elections you need 40%+ of the spectrum to vote for you. More people cluster round the middle of the spectrum than anywhere else - that's a general law of maths and reality - we are mostly middling sorts.

    The best way of getting 40%+ to vote for you it to be around the middle, and you can shift your centre a fair way either side of the middle depending on circumstances.

    That's what Tories do. The hostility to them comes from some but not all of the ends of the spectrums: least and highest educated, most urban, richest and poorest, most remainy, the loony left the fascist right. None of it comes from the centre.

    IMHO they have shifted focus to move their spectrum so as to gain a lot of WWC and to lose Putney and Cambridge, but still occupy a central piece of the spectrum - from Henley to Hartlepool. All their opponents occupy smaller and detached chunks.

    One of the best examples is the West Midlands. For instance, Sutton Coldfield and Cannock Chase have totally different demographics but they're now both very safe Tory seats. Solihull and Newcastle-under-Lyme are another such pairing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,128

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Not what Whitty said.....
    I hope he’s right.

    I believe the govt was doing door-by-door testing at the postcode next to mine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    What utter bollocks as usual from Zero Hedge, from the WHO scientist they quote.

    I have been misquoted. I said B1.617 is more transmissible, based on which it is a VOC. There is no data on its impact on diagnostics, therapeutics or vaccine effectiveness yet.
    @WHO updating variant data continously

    https://twitter.com/doctorsoumya/status/1391783186926084098
    Let's hope so! "No data yet".

    If the vax can beat this last Indian variant then we can - surely - kiss goodbye to Covid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,590
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    What utter bollocks as usual from Zero Hedge, from the WHO scientist they quote.

    I have been misquoted. I said B1.617 is more transmissible, based on which it is a VOC. There is no data on its impact on diagnostics, therapeutics or vaccine effectiveness yet.
    @WHO updating variant data continously

    https://twitter.com/doctorsoumya/status/1391783186926084098
    Let's hope so! "No data yet".

    If the vax can beat this last Indian variant then we can - surely - kiss goodbye to Covid.
    You've just jinxed it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Not what Whitty said.....
    It does appear to be bollocks.

    To be fair to Zerohedge (yes yes, I know) it was blue-tick Indian media that first ran with this story
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,069

    Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham.

    Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. Which he doesn’t.

    2019 Results:

    Con, 55.4
    LDm, 26.3
    Lab, 12.9
    Grn, 5.5

    To win, the Liberals need to pick up, say, 20% of the Tory vote and 50% of the Lab/Green vote.

    V difficult.

    Labour has to fight Chesham seriously. Obviously it has no chance of winning or even finishing second but there is a serious risk of it finishing fourth, behind the Greens. Given that Batley is far from a banker to hold, to be beaten by the Greens in C&A would just add to the narrative of a party going nowhere (or backwards).

    By the way, there is another parliamentary by-election next week, in a seat Labour needs to win if it's serious about recovering in Scotland (they came within 200 votes in 2017).
    Surely they treat Chesham & Amersham like they did Newbury and Christchurch by elections in 1993 where they polled 2% in each.
    If they were double-digits ahead in the opinion polls and winning other elections happily - and were the Greens not taking core Labour votes in a worryingly large number of places - yes. But Labour doesn't have that luxury at the moment.

    In Newbury (and Christchurch, Winchester etc), Labour could say "our voters made a tactical decision" with the implicit follow-on "which will be replicated in reverse to Labour's advantage in many other places; that won't necessarily apply in C&A because it's not clear Labour can command such a pre-eminent position on the left-of-centre - and if it can't, then that brings into question how tactical these Lab-to-Grn/LD votes are.
    Labour does not have the luxury of ignoring the Lib Dems. A Labour government without them is beyond unlikely.
    Who is Labour's candidate in Airdrie and Shotts? A Momentum type, a Paul Williams type, or someone who might be electorally attractive?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,658
    Well, yes:


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,135
    CL final will NOT be in Istanbul.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    .

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic, I think there's a difference in the voting behaviour of those who voted Remain for economic reasons as opposed to values reasons.

    On the Tory side, particularly in the Shires, they tend more to the former and therefore, as the four horsemen of the apocalypse fail to materialise, it will tend to decrease in salience over time.

    I think this is far less so for Labour who have (perhaps unintentionally) ending up radicalising their voting coalition over Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still want to turn it up to eleven.

    Yes, there's a tendency to assume everyone who voted Remain is as furious as Gina Miller.
    Many, if not most remainers, voted Remain as they saw it as the low-risk or most mainstream option, rather than because of any great cultural identity with the EU.
    That said, when we say the Leave/Remain divide is not just about Brexit, that's true of the shires as well as the red wall. There are a lot (and some of them are here) of broadly Cameroony Tories whose ambivalence to the current lot is not just (or even primarily) about Brexit. If the Lib Dems can stop banging on about transsexuals and siding with the French when we are in disputes with them, they should be well-placed to hoover up votes where Cameroonies were most common.
    Seats which voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 but now have LD MPs eg Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, St Albans etc tend to be amongst the wealthiest, most educated and poshest in the country.

    They voted Remain largely for economic reasons and are fiscally conservative but socially liberal (ie the opposite of Northern and Midlands Redwall seats). As the Tories increasingly move to RedWall values they have left a gap in other similar Cameroon Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham, Guildford, Henley, Esher and Walton as last week's results showed and they are where the LDs will be focusing on
    Doesn't help the Labour Party of course
    It does as the LDs are more likely to back Starmer's Labour Party over Boris' Tories if 2024 produces a hung parliament
    That's what people said in 2009.

    If LD seats are in Cameroon areas, then even in a Hung Parliament it might end up depending upon the results like it did in 2010. Especially now Brexit won't be an issue anymore.

    Davey was comfortable in the Coalition.
    LD voters and LD members want to return to the single market or as closely aligned to it as possible, there is no prospect of that under Boris who LDs hate in a way they did not hate Cameron, the LDs will back Labour now Corbyn has gone whoever has most seats.

    The Tories have to win another majority or enough seats to stay in government with the DUP in 2024 to remain in office
    Davey is not LD members.

    If the Tories end up significantly north of 300 MPs but shy of a majority, then its entirely possible a Rishi or other led Tory Party could get at the very least Confidence from Davey's LDs. They might claim Boris's scalp as part of the agreement, a price the Tories would pay to maintain control of Downing Street.
    Davey would face an immediate vote of confidence if he did that and likely lose the leadership to say Layla Moran.

    In any case the price of LD support would be single market membership or as close as possible to it which no Tory leader could agree for a generation as it would mean immediately loss of the Red Wall seats again and mass defections of Leave voters back to Reform UK and UKIP
    I seriously doubt the LDs would arbitrarily ask for single market membership unless things were looking economically glum. It would result in too much upheaval AGAIN.
    The LDs whole core message at the moment is based on being anti Boris' 'hard Brexit' which is why they voted against his Brexit deal, of course they would refuse to support the Tories if there was anything less than single market alignment and it is absurd to suggest otherwise. They would lose almost all their voters to Labour and the Greens if they did not
    Do we know what the LD's "core" national message is right now?

    I voted Lib Dems on Thursday and there was no mention of "Brexit" on any literature.
    It was a local election, based on the local LD message of no new housing anywhere at any time
    Yes. So I disagree with you. I don't think the LDs would arbitrarily ask for single market alignment unless the economy was looking rocky. If the economy is booming, even the most ardent remainers are going to be talking about other things. You're discussing the last war.
    LD voters nationally and LD members are ideologically anti Brexit and ideologically anti Boris' Brexit in particular, if they were not they would be voting Tory.

    It does not matter what the economy looks like in 2024, they will not support the Tories unless they move to a softer Brexit deal with the EU at minimum
    Rubbish. Brexit is over. It's done. They may not support the Tories because they are anti Boris but that doesn't mean they want to reopen the can of worms.

    If Brexit is by and large going well by 2024, there will be no demand for single market or whatever, the focus will be on other issues.
    Why are they anti Boris? As they are anti his Brexit Deal mainly.

    That is the defining issue which differentiates the LDs from the Tories at the moment, opposition to a hard Brexit, they are not going to back down on that and it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

    To stay in power in a hung parliament the Tories would have to win over the DUP again and try and remove the border in the Irish Sea, the LDs will not touch them with a bargepole while they remain a party of hard Brexit under Boris
    Well I think you're wrong.

    It's not just Brexit, it's everything surrounding Brexit and the political realignment that has occured. I think that once the immigration system has bedded in and trade has stabilised with the EU, no party will be proposing to rip it up and start again. It will be mere tinkering around the edges, and perhaps a change to the NI protocol, but that's it. Maybe we'll join Erasmus and have closer integration in some areas, but no wholesale change.

    Of course if the economy is in the doldrums, then all bets are off.
    You're 100% correct. That's why there was such fire and fury over Brexit, because it was a dramatic transformation and unlikely to be one that would be refought once it was done.

    If Brexit is a failure then the LDs and Labour will campaign to change things - and the Tories will be out on their ears and not get a say.

    If Brexit is going well, then this is not something anyone will have the inclination to refight.

    People will go into 2024 fighting new battles different to 2019. They may be tangential to Brexit issues, but they won't be refighting 2019 all over again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Not what Whitty said.....
    It does appear to be bollocks.

    To be fair to Zerohedge (yes yes, I know) it was blue-tick Indian media that first ran with this story
    Even I don't believe anything on Zerohedge mate. That's where you are right now.
    Then you are foolish. Sometimes Zerohedge spouts gibberish, and sometimes it gets remarkable scoops, hours before anyone else. It is an odd site, but always worth checking
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,468
    isam said:

    In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

    Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

    Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

    Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

    You don't scan for me.

    With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incredibly anti-Labour.

    There is no way, no way on earth, the Tories can be considered better on this issue than Labour. Just look at their respective records and manifestos since year dot. Even the Blair government who you castigate for free movement. Ok, they allowed that, but they also (against Tory opposition) brought in the minimum wage. You really think the positive impact of this on the low paid didn't dwarf that of free movement? C'mon.

    It makes no sense, the way Starmer and Labour can do nothing right for you and Johnson's mob no wrong. There's something else going on. It's bugging me. So tell me please.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,320
    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Hmm, I have read the opposite elsewhere that it doesn't show major immune escape and a care home which had an outbreak of this variant saw no deaths and no major symptoms with 15 infections among the vaccinated.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,654
    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Everything I've seen and read before has been saying the opposite.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,069
    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

    Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

    Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

    Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

    Much truth in this. Assume for a moment that voters are sorts of spectrums, which can be described in a number of ways: from richest to poorest, from PhD to no qualifications; Remain and Rejoin to Ardent Hard Brexit and so on.

    To win general elections you need 40%+ of the spectrum to vote for you. More people cluster round the middle of the spectrum than anywhere else - that's a general law of maths and reality - we are mostly middling sorts.

    The best way of getting 40%+ to vote for you it to be around the middle, and you can shift your centre a fair way either side of the middle depending on circumstances.

    That's what Tories do. The hostility to them comes from some but not all of the ends of the spectrums: least and highest educated, most urban, richest and poorest, most remainy, the loony left the fascist right. None of it comes from the centre.

    IMHO they have shifted focus to move their spectrum so as to gain a lot of WWC and to lose Putney and Cambridge, but still occupy a central piece of the spectrum - from Henley to Hartlepool. All their opponents occupy smaller and detached chunks.

    One of the best examples is the West Midlands. For instance, Sutton Coldfield and Cannock Chase have totally different demographics but they're now both very safe Tory seats. Solihull and Newcastle-under-Lyme are another such pairing.
    I'd like to believe that most people cluster around the centre of the Leave/Remain spectrum - yes, but... and no, but... - but that's not the perception I have, which is that everyone has firmly picked their side. Is this just a case of the loudest voices being the least representative?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,654

    Andy_JS said:

    In theory, Labour should win Airdrie and Shotts.
    There’s a decent Conservative vote to tactically pillage.

    Will they?

    Why should Labour win it when the SNP have a 13% majority?
    Unionist tactical voting.
    New leadership from Anas.

    I’m not, by the way, saying they *will*, but that they *should* if we are see any proof that Labour are viable north of the border.
    I don't see many Tories voting Labour at this by-election. They may have done last week.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    RobD said:

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    But, the wallpaper?
    Redfield and Wilton sound more like an interior design outfit than pollsters.....

    Look forward to a thread-header on this polling.

    /IronyMode
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,294
    Once everyone is vaxxed up, you probably want to let something like the Indian or Kent variant rip; if you lock down till a vax resistant strain is the dominant type, well that puts you back about 10 spaces.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,570
    RobD said:

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    But, the wallpaper?
    This is juvenile. Just because the public, on the whole don't care, that doesn't mean it isn't important objectively, even if it isn't important electorally. There are standards to maintain.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Hmm, I have read the opposite elsewhere that it doesn't show major immune escape and a care home which had an outbreak of this variant saw no deaths and no major symptoms with 15 infections among the vaccinated.
    TSE is right, the WHO doc was misquoted. They don't have enough data yet to decide
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,425
    edited May 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Hmm, I have read the opposite elsewhere that it doesn't show major immune escape and a care home which had an outbreak of this variant saw no deaths and no major symptoms with 15 infections among the vaccinated.
    Re the care home: all the Indian variant cases in the double vaccinated were asymptomatic. Given these were old people, with weakened immune systems, that's highly encouraging.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,789
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Hmm, I have read the opposite elsewhere that it doesn't show major immune escape and a care home which had an outbreak of this variant saw no deaths and no major symptoms with 15 infections among the vaccinated.
    Yes, all the virologists/immunologists I've seen commenting have been increasingly bullish about all of the vaccines.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,425
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

    Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

    Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

    Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

    Much truth in this. Assume for a moment that voters are sorts of spectrums, which can be described in a number of ways: from richest to poorest, from PhD to no qualifications; Remain and Rejoin to Ardent Hard Brexit and so on.

    To win general elections you need 40%+ of the spectrum to vote for you. More people cluster round the middle of the spectrum than anywhere else - that's a general law of maths and reality - we are mostly middling sorts.

    The best way of getting 40%+ to vote for you it to be around the middle, and you can shift your centre a fair way either side of the middle depending on circumstances.

    That's what Tories do. The hostility to them comes from some but not all of the ends of the spectrums: least and highest educated, most urban, richest and poorest, most remainy, the loony left the fascist right. None of it comes from the centre.

    IMHO they have shifted focus to move their spectrum so as to gain a lot of WWC and to lose Putney and Cambridge, but still occupy a central piece of the spectrum - from Henley to Hartlepool. All their opponents occupy smaller and detached chunks.

    One of the best examples is the West Midlands. For instance, Sutton Coldfield and Cannock Chase have totally different demographics but they're now both very safe Tory seats. Solihull and Newcastle-under-Lyme are another such pairing.
    I'd like to believe that most people cluster around the centre of the Leave/Remain spectrum - yes, but... and no, but... - but that's not the perception I have, which is that everyone has firmly picked their side. Is this just a case of the loudest voices being the least representative?
    Yes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,135
    edited May 2021
    Cookie said:

    Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham.

    Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. Which he doesn’t.

    2019 Results:

    Con, 55.4
    LDm, 26.3
    Lab, 12.9
    Grn, 5.5

    To win, the Liberals need to pick up, say, 20% of the Tory vote and 50% of the Lab/Green vote.

    V difficult.

    Labour has to fight Chesham seriously. Obviously it has no chance of winning or even finishing second but there is a serious risk of it finishing fourth, behind the Greens. Given that Batley is far from a banker to hold, to be beaten by the Greens in C&A would just add to the narrative of a party going nowhere (or backwards).

    By the way, there is another parliamentary by-election next week, in a seat Labour needs to win if it's serious about recovering in Scotland (they came within 200 votes in 2017).
    Surely they treat Chesham & Amersham like they did Newbury and Christchurch by elections in 1993 where they polled 2% in each.
    If they were double-digits ahead in the opinion polls and winning other elections happily - and were the Greens not taking core Labour votes in a worryingly large number of places - yes. But Labour doesn't have that luxury at the moment.

    In Newbury (and Christchurch, Winchester etc), Labour could say "our voters made a tactical decision" with the implicit follow-on "which will be replicated in reverse to Labour's advantage in many other places; that won't necessarily apply in C&A because it's not clear Labour can command such a pre-eminent position on the left-of-centre - and if it can't, then that brings into question how tactical these Lab-to-Grn/LD votes are.
    Labour does not have the luxury of ignoring the Lib Dems. A Labour government without them is beyond unlikely.
    Who is Labour's candidate in Airdrie and Shotts? A Momentum type, a Paul Williams type, or someone who might be electorally attractive?
    Kenneth Stevenson. FE engineering teacher. Grew up in Shotts. Left school to do an apprenticeship. Local councillor.
    No idea about his political positions.
    But it is a start at least.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,294
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    The Indian strain is "vaccine resistant"

    Are we being cued up for an eternal quasi-lockdown?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indian-covid-strain-declared-global-concern-data-show-its-vaccine-resistant

    Hmm, I have read the opposite elsewhere that it doesn't show major immune escape and a care home which had an outbreak of this variant saw no deaths and no major symptoms with 15 infections among the vaccinated.
    Re the care home: all the Indian variant cases in the double vaccinated were asymptomatic. Given these were old people, with weakened immune systems, that's highly encouraging.
    I think there's a metric tonne of higher transmission rate/vaccine resistance confusion going on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,787
    Eternal Quasi-Lockdown....

    @PoliticsForAlI
    NEW: Patrick Vallance has warned that Winter is coming, and face masks may be necessary on public transport then


    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1391791121848836100?s=20
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,821

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton

    Boris Johnson Approval Rating (10 May):

    Approve: 48% (+6)
    Disapprove: 31% (-5)
    Net: +17% (+11)

    Changes +/- 3 May

    Highest Net Approval Rating for Johnson since 22 March 2021.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,468
    edited May 2021
    isam said:

    ...

    RobD said:

    So much for the wallpaper :wink:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 May):

    Conservative 45% (+5)
    Labour 34% (-4)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Reform UK 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 May


    But, the wallpaper?
    Boris should photoshop an pic of him plastering the walls of No10 with those opinion poll graphs!
    See? You just revel in Tory success and Labour failure. This is (obvs) not due to your concern for the low paid. So what gives? Tell me.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,517
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    isam said:

    In the Times Radio interview (Does anyone else follow them on twitter? Interesting stuff on there) John Curtice says Labour under Starmer have become too Conservative, and worried about upsetting voters, whilst Boris's Tories are radicals who are prepared to piss off their usual voters to get things done.

    Seems fair to me, but the biggest change in politics in my lifetime, one that I am no closer to understanding now that at any other time, is that the Labour Party, in allowing Freedom of Movement to the A8, put the low paid jobs of those the party was set up to look out for out to tender to millions of people who had a huge incentive to undercut them.

    Labour basically deregulated the Labour market in a way no right wing, free marketeer could have dreamed of getting away with, opening up gold mines for exploitative capitalists to the detriment of the working class, and their refusal to admit they made a mistake, or that it was any kind of big deal - let alone apologise - has led to Old Etonian, Bullingdon Boy Boris ripping through the northern heartlands like a bushfire.

    Curtice is right that pretending it never happened is not an option for Labour. How on earth they put the bloke in charge who was trying to stop the Leave vote being respected beggars belief

    Much truth in this. Assume for a moment that voters are sorts of spectrums, which can be described in a number of ways: from richest to poorest, from PhD to no qualifications; Remain and Rejoin to Ardent Hard Brexit and so on.

    To win general elections you need 40%+ of the spectrum to vote for you. More people cluster round the middle of the spectrum than anywhere else - that's a general law of maths and reality - we are mostly middling sorts.

    The best way of getting 40%+ to vote for you it to be around the middle, and you can shift your centre a fair way either side of the middle depending on circumstances.

    That's what Tories do. The hostility to them comes from some but not all of the ends of the spectrums: least and highest educated, most urban, richest and poorest, most remainy, the loony left the fascist right. None of it comes from the centre.

    IMHO they have shifted focus to move their spectrum so as to gain a lot of WWC and to lose Putney and Cambridge, but still occupy a central piece of the spectrum - from Henley to Hartlepool. All their opponents occupy smaller and detached chunks.

    One of the best examples is the West Midlands. For instance, Sutton Coldfield and Cannock Chase have totally different demographics but they're now both very safe Tory seats. Solihull and Newcastle-under-Lyme are another such pairing.
    I'd like to believe that most people cluster around the centre of the Leave/Remain spectrum - yes, but... and no, but... - but that's not the perception I have, which is that everyone has firmly picked their side. Is this just a case of the loudest voices being the least representative?
    30% hard leavers 20% moderate leavers 40% moderate remainers 10% hard remainers. Anyway its done.
This discussion has been closed.