Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.
So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
Whoa - we're all active participants in democracy!
Indeed. And anyway candidates dont need to show up. They often dont at parliamentaries for the start.
It is a bit of an imposition. But it's not as much as one as suggested.
I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.
What am I missing
Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.
Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament the Labour Party.
Fixed that for you.
I know you're trying to be funny, but whether you like it or not, an elected position within the Labour Party is a senior position within the UK Parliamentary system.
I think if she was LotO - which, I think, gets a salary from the tax-payer - then I'd agree with you.
I appreciate that it's splitting hairs to a certain extent, but there's a bit of me that thinks Labour's biggest problem is its MPs. The Tories aren't anything special, but they look brilliant compared with the likes of Rayner.
I haven't seen enough of Rayner to comment, but like I've said before, she must be good at something to get to where she is. However of course what is 'brilliant' to the Labour Party does not necessarily have universal appeal...
Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.
Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.
Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.
Public service is tough.
Thought you said public service is trough!
Are you by any chance a member of the House of Lords?
Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.
I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.
Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.
Largely because it is going to get worse.
Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.
As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.
Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.
Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.
Public service is tough.
Besides which many of us have jobs that require us to put in hours necessary, I know for example that to hit a deadline I have had to work 30 or more hours straight so sympathy is scant from my side. Think my record was went to work as normal tuesday left friday and only caught about 4 hours sleep under my desk in that time
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
The old Blue Wall has had rather more of a normal mid-term set of results. Still very, very good considering they were coming off exceptionally good results from Theresa May's 2017 effort, where the Conservatives gained 563 seats. There really was only one way to go from there. Yet the LibDems haven't advanced at all, with Greens and Independents carrying off the prizes. Labour has continued its woeful efforts - considering it was down 382 councillors in 2017 as well.
But net since 2016/2017, a mid term Government has still added over 200 more seats. So no, it isn't exactly a Boris-led disaster, is it now? Much as you might wish it to be.
I don't think Scott is calling it a Boris-led disaster. He's merely pointing out a subtext that may be important in the coming years. You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.
I think that the collapse of the Home Counties blue ring is some way off, but these results could be a straw in the wind. Taking voters for granted because they cannot go anywhere else is what got Labour into this mess.
The fanbois rapid rebuttal team reaction is revealing
It's called measured assessment. You should try it some time....
Does look like the UK govt has benefitted somewhat from the declaration timetable this weekend - results in local and other elections declaring late Saturday/Sunday look worse for Cons than those declaring on Friday/early Saturday.
I think that the collapse of the Home Counties blue ring is some way off, but these results could be a straw in the wind. Taking voters for granted because they cannot go anywhere else is what got Labour into this mess.
The fanbois rapid rebuttal team reaction is revealing
Just as well because your posts were completely unexpected! Really groundbreaking. I think Starmer may want a chat....
..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...
Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...
Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.
What I don't understand is why Starmer didn't have a plan for this very eventuality ready to go? Maybe I have too high expectations.
In that awful TV interview he seemed utterly wrecked so I reckon he didn't think it was gonna be this bad. In itself that is pretty damming for him and those around him.
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
Labour didn't do well in any of the places it needs to do in order to win an election. London, Wales, Bristol, Manchester are all places Labour would win even if they went below 200 seats.
Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.
I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.
Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.
Largely because it is going to get worse.
Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.
As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.
Well may you ask, mate.
The betting on the Chesham by election does not quite match this view. With traditional by election exaggerated swing this might be be a reverse Hartlepool, but for second place LD, not Labour. But the betting says not.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.
Bet he doesn't.
Smarkets (but not BF) has a market on Starmer leaving date and a market on whether he will be challenged.
Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.
I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.
Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.
Largely because it is going to get worse.
Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.
As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.
Well may you ask, mate.
Ooo you are awful, truly you are, but I very occasionally like you.
There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.
They should hold B&S but these days who knows. Much may depend on the candidate choice this time.
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
Starmer appears to be far too earnest. If Boris Johnson had lost everything he would have made it sound like a resounding victory.
Those results that were OK for Labour have had Priti Patel spitting feathers. So she is going to change the electoral system to FPTP so that next time they won't be OK for Labour.
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
The "E"CW started in Scotland because they tried to impose C of E practices and put the King as head of the Kirk in Scotland. Not tactful. Not friendly.
The worst-case scenario for the Tories in those areas would be a loss of about 10 seats. But boundary changes will probably grant them an extra 10 seats in the same areas anyway.
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
Let's be honest, it was crap
It wasn’t all bad . This was not a wholesale rejection of Labour . Equally if the vaccine rollout had gone bad and the Tories were punished by voters commentators would have been making the wrong conclusions. Until covid is out of the way we won’t know the true state of the parties .
Welsh Police and Crime Commissioners finished counting
South Wales: Alun Michael (Labour) re-elected (yes, he is still around) Gwent: Jeff Cuthbert (Labour) re-elected Dyfed-Powys: Dafydd Llewelyn (Plaid) re-elected. North Wales: Andy Dunbobbin (Labour) gain from Plaid. Plaid incumbent didn't stand again. Conservative ahead in first preferences but Plaid's transfers pushed Labour in front.
The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .
There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.
I think that’s optimistic ultimately. We’ve seen how rigid the EU are with rules, and they’d have the integrity of the single market to protect between the border of Scotland and England.
Lots of SNP supporters seem to be hoping - being blimey optimistic - that the EU will want a newly succeeded state, with little financial track record, back within the club. It is a huge risk - and the EU doesn’t do risk well
They took on far dodgier states in Eastern Europe. Financial risk is a secondary consideration to expanding the empire. And they'll see it as a Brexit victory.
..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...
Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.
Labour should call the Batley and Spen election a week after Cummings gives his evidence and hope there’s enough dirt to harm Bozo . Although currently it looks like Bozo could blow up a school bus and his fans would still give him a pass!
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
Let's be honest, it was crap
It wasn’t all bad . This was not a wholesale rejection of Labour . Equally if the vaccine rollout had gone bad and the Tories were punished by voters commentators would have been making the wrong conclusions. Until covid is out of the way we won’t know the true state of the parties .
It wasn't a wholesale rejection of Labour, you're right.
But it was a wholesale rejection of Labour by enough people to make winning a GE impossible and that ultimately is the goal.
Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.
I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.
Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.
Largely because it is going to get worse.
Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.
As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.
Well may you ask, mate.
The betting on the Chesham by election does not quite match this view. With traditional by election exaggerated swing this might be be a reverse Hartlepool, but for second place LD, not Labour. But the betting says not.
My guess is that Chesham will be a repeat of Whitney: LibDems up a lot, but still quite some way behind Con.
..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...
Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
For this reassuring message to be true for Labour there needs to be a sort of revised list of 50-75 non Labour held seats that they can win in 23/24 on the basis of doing well in parts of Surrey, Worthing, Tories doing less well in Tunbridge Wells and a few other south east places. There would need to be a reverse new red wall in the non ultra-urban southern half of England. I can't find the seats. Can anyone?
I agree they have managed the post match analysis badly, but the bigger question is the seatology of destroying the Tory majority when the Tories are also advancing.
The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.
Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority
The Indy movement is a broader church than the narrower SNP/Green party could attract in the constituency vote. I expect repercussions in the next couple of years as this becomes evident to those who blindly followed the SNP1&2 mantra.
The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .
There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.
I think that’s optimistic ultimately. We’ve seen how rigid the EU are with rules, and they’d have the integrity of the single market to protect between the border of Scotland and England.
Lots of SNP supporters seem to be hoping - being blimey optimistic - that the EU will want a newly succeeded state, with little financial track record, back within the club. It is a huge risk - and the EU doesn’t do risk well
They took on far dodgier states in Eastern Europe. Financial risk is a secondary consideration to expanding the empire. And they'll see it as a Brexit victory.
I think the second point is the key one.
Especially since on the first point there was a gap of 15 years.
There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.
They should hold B&S but these days who knows. Much may depend on the candidate choice this time.
Ministers are pressing ahead with changes to electoral law that could make it easier for Conservatives to win future mayoral elections, as Labour claimed 10 of the 13 posts being contested across England.
The UK home secretary, Priti Patel, has already unveiled plans to switch all future English mayoral elections from the existing supplementary vote system – in which the public ranks their two favourite candidates – to the first past the post system used in elections to the House of Commons.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
A good point. But it was the margin in Hartlepool, I think. The loss was expected. By 7k was a genuine shocker. I didn't see that coming and I've been on the bearish end of things.
Ministers are pressing ahead with changes to electoral law that could make it easier for Conservatives to win future mayoral elections, as Labour claimed 10 of the 13 posts being contested across England.
The UK home secretary, Priti Patel, has already unveiled plans to switch all future English mayoral elections from the existing supplementary vote system – in which the public ranks their two favourite candidates – to the first past the post system used in elections to the House of Commons.
For example I would have voted Labour 1st choice rather than 2nd choice for Northumbria PCC if it was a straight FPTP fight between Lab and Con, rather than the nice independent who I picked as my 1st choice.
This would be the second B and S by election in a few years. Last time no fewer than 9 candidates, to their eternal shame, stood against Labour following the murder of Jo Cox.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
The coalition that won in 2019 was made up of 75% of the then-LEAVE vote (48%) and 20% of the then-REMAIN vote (52%) - roughly.
The latter, while not supportive of leaving the EU in 2016, either considered the requirement to settle the issue the paramount consideration or were so terrified of Jeremy Corbyn they were always to vote for any party capable of stopping him.
The question for the opposition is how you break apart that coalition. Time will help - as the distance between our membership of the EU and the present increases, so the salience of 2016 should diminish. The second part will depend on whether the latter group is fiscally conservative (in which case there's an opening) or would be willing to support a "centrist" Labour party or whether they are Conservative no matter what (I suspect elements of all three).
Maybe this is mad, but Labour should hire Dominic Cummings...
Would be great craic if nothing else
Dominic Cummings has found a new self-help guru btw: Julia Galef. I'm up to chapter 4 in her book, The Scout Mindset, which seems underwhelming so far. You can watch her 10 minute TEDx talk on the subject at:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MYEtQ5Zdn8
Regardless of whether the counters are tired, the activists are knackered or the bettors are excited, it would save the public purse a large amount if the ballot papers were shuffled around during normal working hours rather than in the middle of the night. It's not as though any of the results are likely to be different.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
Regardless of whether the counters are tired, the activists are knackered or the bettors are excited, it would save the public purse a large amount if the ballot papers were shuffled around during normal working hours rather than in the middle of the night. It's not as though any of the results are likely to be different.
Why? Do they paid some special rate of overtime?
Most people don't get paid overtime, so I'm sure they'd find willing people to cover the night shifts at a normal rate of remuneration.
» show previous quotes Don't worry too much, Scotland is a nation of bottlers. You will once again vote for the apron strings. It's a nation that likes to talk but won't vote to lose all of the UK funded sweeties like free prescriptions and free university tuition.
bollox , you lying dumb horse's arse PS: At least we are not Richard pullers. @MaxPB
Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
A good point. But it was the margin in Hartlepool, I think. The loss was expected. By 7k was a genuine shocker. I didn't see that coming and I've been on the bearish end of things.
And very few of us saw their seat losses would be in the hundreds.....
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Uh oh! You’re turning into a Tory! You’d better go and get your fill of kisses with young lefties sharpish.
The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.
Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.
What am I missing
You are missing that what was rejected in 2019 was Corbyn personally, not "the left" or even Corbynism. You are missing that Corbyn was very popular just two years earlier. You are missing that Boris pinched much of Labour's 2017 platform for 2019.
And of course, you are missing that Starmer might lose.
There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.
They should hold B&S but these days who knows. Much may depend on the candidate choice this time.
Ed Balls.
Because that wouldn't fuel Skyr's paranoia about losing his job, no sirreeee.....
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.
Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
The "E"CW started in Scotland because they tried to impose C of E practices and put the King as head of the Kirk in Scotland. Not tactful. Not friendly.
Wonder what the starting odds in Batley & Span will be. Something like Con 8/11, Lab 11/10?
Labour could be in the middle of a terrible civil war and the public do not reward divided parties
When have Labour not been in the midst of a terrible civil war? Even in the glory days of Blair, Corbyn was taking his bat and ball home, and McDonnell was plotting Blair's downfall.
..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...
Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
Kindly Uncle Tone has been unusually high profile in the last 6-12 months. Now he’s made off like a bandit for 14 years, perhaps he’s itching to slide back into the chair.
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Geoff Boycott?
A great choice if we're pivoting to "so unwoke we're comatose".
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.
Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.
Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
Biden is 103.
Not quite, although as with Ronald Reagan there are times when he looks as if he is!
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 20m Another Green gain from Labour in Bristol.
What happened to that smarmy git Marvin Rees? Was he re-elected?
Yes, last night. He had a 10% lead over Greens after 1 prefs. Second preferences were more or less equal because half of the eliminated votes were non-transferable
Labour should call the Batley and Spen election a week after Cummings gives his evidence and hope there’s enough dirt to harm Bozo . Although currently it looks like Bozo could blow up a school bus and his fans would still give him a pass!
Look, the school bus was going to blow up anyways and we also had no idea pushing the plunger would actually blow up the bus so I think we can give BoJo a pass there.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Comments
It is a bit of an imposition. But it's not as much as one as suggested.
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Not today, though. I have a joint of roast beef in the oven today - silverside.
Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1391417459677224967?s=20
Starmer needs a Willie....
The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .
Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
Cos it looked and sounded like a hissy fit.
By...standing on another rake. He truly is the Sideshow Bob of British politics.
Credit to @contrarian for his nonpartisan take.
Smarkets (but not BF) has a market on Starmer leaving date and a market on whether he will be challenged.
Now, some industries may end up being priced out in these circumstances (like fruit picking), but I somehow don't think trucking will be on of them.
Those results that were OK for Labour have had Priti Patel spitting feathers. So she is going to change the electoral system to FPTP so that next time they won't be OK for Labour.
Would be great craic if nothing else
Linke could even miss the 5% hurdle, which would really shake things up.
South Wales: Alun Michael (Labour) re-elected (yes, he is still around)
Gwent: Jeff Cuthbert (Labour) re-elected
Dyfed-Powys: Dafydd Llewelyn (Plaid) re-elected.
North Wales: Andy Dunbobbin (Labour) gain from Plaid. Plaid incumbent didn't stand again. Conservative ahead in first preferences but Plaid's transfers pushed Labour in front.
West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.
There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20
But it was a wholesale rejection of Labour by enough people to make winning a GE impossible and that ultimately is the goal.
I agree they have managed the post match analysis badly, but the bigger question is the seatology of destroying the Tory majority when the Tories are also advancing.
Maybe the Hams by-election will give some clues.
The UK home secretary, Priti Patel, has already unveiled plans to switch all future English mayoral elections from the existing supplementary vote system – in which the public ranks their two favourite candidates – to the first past the post system used in elections to the House of Commons.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/09/government-to-change-english-voting-system-after-labour-mayoral-victories
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
For example I would have voted Labour 1st choice rather than 2nd choice for Northumbria PCC if it was a straight FPTP fight between Lab and Con, rather than the nice independent who I picked as my 1st choice.
This would be the second B and S by election in a few years. Last time no fewer than 9 candidates, to their eternal shame, stood against Labour following the murder of Jo Cox.
The latter, while not supportive of leaving the EU in 2016, either considered the requirement to settle the issue the paramount consideration or were so terrified of Jeremy Corbyn they were always to vote for any party capable of stopping him.
The question for the opposition is how you break apart that coalition. Time will help - as the distance between our membership of the EU and the present increases, so the salience of 2016 should diminish. The second part will depend on whether the latter group is fiscally conservative (in which case there's an opening) or would be willing to support a "centrist" Labour party or whether they are Conservative no matter what (I suspect elements of all three).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MYEtQ5Zdn8
What a waste of a good cricket ball.
Most people don't get paid overtime, so I'm sure they'd find willing people to cover the night shifts at a normal rate of remuneration.
MaxPB said:
» show previous quotes
Don't worry too much, Scotland is a nation of bottlers. You will once again vote for the apron strings. It's a nation that likes to talk but won't vote to lose all of the UK funded sweeties like free prescriptions and free university tuition.
bollox , you lying dumb horse's arse
PS: At least we are not Richard pullers. @MaxPB
Andrew Adonis
@Andrew_Adonis
·
7h
For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
And of course, you are missing that Starmer might lose.
Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
@lewis_goodall
·
20m
Another Green gain from Labour in Bristol.
He had a 10% lead over Greens after 1 prefs. Second preferences were more or less equal because half of the eliminated votes were non-transferable