Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 20m Another Green gain from Labour in Bristol.
What happened to that smarmy git Marvin Rees? Was he re-elected?
Yes, last night. He had a 10% lead over Greens after 1 prefs. Second preferences were more or less equal because half of the eliminated votes were non-transferable
That’s a shame. Not a good thing. Nor a nice person. Spent more time obsessing about one statue than about his mates’ performance in education (which for the record has been utterly dire).
On second thoughts, maybe we should just chuck this whole attempt at democracy, and appoint Boris king when HM passes away. If only there could be a bit of clarity about who the heir to the throne would be.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
I also think we're at peak Brexit, but not for the reasons you state. More that "Brexit" was the glue holding things together and now that it is over, it will be harder pleasing everyone. I don't think the 'culture war' narrative has the same sway and is easier to counter.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
Will the bookies be paying out on NOM at Holyrood?
There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.
They may also go backwards in Airdrie & Shotts next Thursday, despite it being the seat of former leader John Smith (when it was known as Monklands East).
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
@Razedabode More like lying Westminster arses pretend there is a deficit when in fact it is just to hide fact they have borrowed cash and pretend it has been spent on Scotland. Mugs like you are taken in easily.
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Geoff Boycott?
A great choice if we're pivoting to "so unwoke we're comatose".
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
I wish Richard Burgon would go away and never come back
A fight between Richard Burgon and Keir Starmer would be the like that contest between the Titanic and that iceberg.
On the one hand, a marvel of moving parts, machinery, representing a new age of peace, prosperity and harmony, unshakeably convinced of its own brilliance and invulnerability, steaming confidently ahead to its destination.
On the other hand, the one that will actually win, before later vanishing due to surrounding conditions.
It feels like the Greens are going to win their second Westminster seat in Bristol. They seem to have real momentum there. Previously it looked like it might be Norwich.
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
And you of course.
And I put on all these awesome puns for you!
I feel I must take offence.
And a gate and a small potting shed, but that’s only because I need to rebuild my garden.
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
Regardless of whether the counters are tired, the activists are knackered or the bettors are excited, it would save the public purse a large amount if the ballot papers were shuffled around during normal working hours rather than in the middle of the night. It's not as though any of the results are likely to be different.
Why? Do they paid some special rate of overtime?
Most people don't get paid overtime, so I'm sure they'd find willing people to cover the night shifts at a normal rate of remuneration.
Come to think of it, probably people could be found to do it for free, for the sheer joy of making sure they get the right result.
And in that case, probably it would be best if they did it in the middle of the night.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
Me too. Its terribly important to point out just how crap Labour really are.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Yep, this is Peak Tory, Peak Brexit, Peak Johnson. Just generally Peak "Bad" as regards our domestic politics. That "Boris" Blimp in Pools was Jeremy at Glasto. Spookily similar. I'm quite good on peaks. I felt it then, I feel it now.
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
Liar
Are you saying it wasn’t broke, despite a 92% depreciation in its currency?
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
Liar
Are you saying it wasn’t broke, despite a 92% depreciation in its currency?
We might get to see history repeating itself .....
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Amazing. You can be a former Nazi or Trotskyist in this country and be forgiven, but get caught having expressed support for EU membership (a mainstream policy across the spectrum for decades) and it's political death.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
And you of course.
And I put on all these awesome puns for you!
I feel I must take offence.
And a gate and a small potting shed, but that’s only because I need to rebuild my garden.
The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.
Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority
The Indy movement is a broader church than the narrower SNP/Green party could attract in the constituency vote. I expect repercussions in the next couple of years as this becomes evident to those who blindly followed the SNP1&2 mantra.
Sarissa you are talking to someone as thick as two short planks, he will not understand.
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
Despite sharing a monarch, the Navigation Acts denied access to the colonies for sixty years before the Union
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
And you of course.
And I put on all these awesome puns for you!
I feel I must take offence.
And a gate and a small potting shed, but that’s only because I need to rebuild my garden.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Yep, this is Peak Tory, Peak Brexit, Peak Johnson. Just generally Peak "Bad" as regards our domestic politics. That "Boris" Blimp in Pools was Jeremy at Glasto. Spookily similar. I'm quite good on peaks. I felt it then, I feel it now.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
Alistair , if that is who he comes to the site for you have had a lucky escape, I assume he lives in Barking
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.
Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
Yes, Blair is old but the more significant thought for Boris's bank manager might be that Tony Blair was younger than Boris is now when he retired from Number 10 to spend time making millions of ackers. Likewise David Cameron.
If Boris really is as skint as he makes out (and tbh I'm not sure he can be) then he can't leave it too long before he gets his snout in the trough. (Once the trough reopens after Covid, of course.)
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
Liar
Are you saying it wasn’t broke, despite a 92% depreciation in its currency?
It was not broke, it had money and the 12 cheating turds who signed the country over were broke. English welched on the deal , surprise surprise and paid in paper money that could only be spent in London , ie impossible. 300 years of cheating bastards stealing from us.
Labour should call the Batley and Spen election a week after Cummings gives his evidence and hope there’s enough dirt to harm Bozo . Although currently it looks like Bozo could blow up a school bus and his fans would still give him a pass!
Look, the school bus was going to blow up anyways and we also had no idea pushing the plunger would actually blow up the bus so I think we can give BoJo a pass there.
He's teflon and Starmer is velcro. This has to change. But will it? I don't know.
BTW, do you have a view on an approx % probability that Sindy2 takes place in 22?
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.
Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
Yes, Blair is old but the more significant thought for Boris's bank manager might be that Tony Blair was younger than Boris is now before he retired from Number 10 to spend time making millions of ackers. Likewise David Cameron.
If Boris really is as skint as he makes out (and tbh I'm not sure he can be) then he can't leave it too long before he gets his snout in the trough. (Once the trough reopens after Covid, of course.)
Yes.
How big an advance would one of the major publishing companies pay for his memoirs? £2 million perhaps? There’s no doubt they’d sell well.
But he can’t really sign that contract until he leaves office.
That said, unlike Tony Blair he had a successful career as an author, public speaker, broadcaster before becoming PM so he’s likely to be able to re-establish himself much more quickly than Blair did.
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
While this comment is bizarre, an even stranger thought is that it is perfectly possible that even TB as he now is, with all his Remain and Iraq baggage etc, would be unable to beat Boris is what were Labour heartland seats (including his own!), and may not even be able to win enough Tory Remain seats to form government. Adonis may be both impossiblist and wrong.
Labour should call the Batley and Spen election a week after Cummings gives his evidence and hope there’s enough dirt to harm Bozo . Although currently it looks like Bozo could blow up a school bus and his fans would still give him a pass!
Look, the school bus was going to blow up anyways and we also had no idea pushing the plunger would actually blow up the bus so I think we can give BoJo a pass there.
He's teflon and Starmer is velcro. This has to change. But will it? I don't know.
BTW, do you have a view on an approx % probability that Sindy2 takes place in 22?
It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster
Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".
Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....
You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?
Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
Liar
Are you saying it wasn’t broke, despite a 92% depreciation in its currency?
It was not broke, it had money and the 12 cheating turds who signed the country over were broke. English welched on the deal , surprise surprise and paid in paper money that could only be spent in London , ie impossible. 300 years of cheating bastards stealing from us.
It had money worth 8% of its face value.
That’s not normally the sign of a healthy economy.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Yep, this is Peak Tory, Peak Brexit, Peak Johnson. Just generally Peak "Bad" as regards our domestic politics. That "Boris" Blimp in Pools was Jeremy at Glasto. Spookily similar. I'm quite good on peaks. I felt it then, I feel it now.
I feel much the same. An unpopular government in Wales was re elected on a vaccine bounce. The same vaccine bonus applies to Johnson.
The fly in the ointment is you have people like Richard Burgon on manoeuvres (and goodness knows who else). I have news for Richard Burgon on manoeuvres, should you become leader of the Labour Party, you will never become Prime Minister, because people like me will not vote for you.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Yep, this is Peak Tory, Peak Brexit, Peak Johnson. Just generally Peak "Bad" as regards our domestic politics. That "Boris" Blimp in Pools was Jeremy at Glasto. Spookily similar. I'm quite good on peaks. I felt it then, I feel it now.
Margaret Thatcher peaked in 1983...
I’m sure Boris would accept the loss of a dozen seats in the southern shires and a few in Scotland, if it meant he kept hold of the blue bricks in the red wall. Majority of 50-60 at the next election or so. Somehow how I doubt his detractors would wake up to that result and feel relieved that peak Boris was 2021.
No, if his opponents want him out then they need to build a coherent and attractive policy platform, around a charismatic and telegenic leader. And that doesn’t happen overnight. Ditch Kier/Keir now or it will soon be too late for the next election. But they won’t of course.
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
Patrick English @PME_Politics · 3h In a continuation of one of the biggest stories of the weekend, the Greens are absolutely bulldozing their way through Bristol Council right now. They've won seats from Labour and the Lib Dems.
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
My gut tells me a Blair return would be good for the Greens. It may be wrong.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
The coalition that won in 2019 was made up of 75% of the then-LEAVE vote (48%) and 20% of the then-REMAIN vote (52%) - roughly.
The latter, while not supportive of leaving the EU in 2016, either considered the requirement to settle the issue the paramount consideration or were so terrified of Jeremy Corbyn they were always to vote for any party capable of stopping him.
The question for the opposition is how you break apart that coalition. Time will help - as the distance between our membership of the EU and the present increases, so the salience of 2016 should diminish. The second part will depend on whether the latter group is fiscally conservative (in which case there's an opening) or would be willing to support a "centrist" Labour party or whether they are Conservative no matter what (I suspect elements of all three).
I always think of @TOPPING in situations like this.
He clearly hates Brexit, but he dislikes Labour even more. He thinks Brexit is a major policy mistake but it hasn't changed the fundamentals of the Conservative v Labour paradigm.
Unless and until the Labour party offers a centrist, fiscally responsible and efficient tax & spend option I suspect that will remain the case.
This, however, does not necessarily mean that, as the first minister claims, holding another referendum is now clearly the "will of the people" in Scotland.
Rather, the outcome of the election confirms that Scotland is evenly divided on the constitutional question.
The three main pro-union parties won 50.4 per cent of the constituency vote, but the three main list parties secured 50.1 per cent of the list vote. The pro-independence majority is a consequence of the limitations of Holyrood’s supposedly proportional electoral system (devised over twenty years ago by Labour and the Liberal Democrats) rather than evidence of a clear majority in favour of another referendum.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Yep, this is Peak Tory, Peak Brexit, Peak Johnson. Just generally Peak "Bad" as regards our domestic politics. That "Boris" Blimp in Pools was Jeremy at Glasto. Spookily similar. I'm quite good on peaks. I felt it then, I feel it now.
I feel much the same. An unpopular government in Wales was re elected on a vaccine bounce. The same vaccine bonus applies to Johnson.
The fly in the ointment is you have people like Richard Burgon on manoeuvres (and goodness knows who else). I have news for Richard Burgon on manoeuvres, should you become leader of the Labour Party, you will never become Prime Minister, because people like me will not vote for you.
There is no way Richard Burgon could ever be Labour leader. Not even if every single Tory, LibDem and SNP activist paid up their money to vote for him.
He would be a less articulate, less intelligent and less effective version of Corbyn.
This, however, does not necessarily mean that, as the first minister claims, holding another referendum is now clearly the "will of the people" in Scotland.
Rather, the outcome of the election confirms that Scotland is evenly divided on the constitutional question.
The three main pro-union parties won 50.4 per cent of the constituency vote, but the three main list parties secured 50.1 per cent of the list vote. The pro-independence majority is a consequence of the limitations of Holyrood’s supposedly proportional electoral system (devised over twenty years ago by Labour and the Liberal Democrats) rather than evidence of a clear majority in favour of another referendum.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
I still haven't forgotten you were the last refuge of hope after early results from the US Presidential election.
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Amazing. You can be a former Nazi or Trotskyist in this country and be forgiven, but get caught having expressed support for EU membership (a mainstream policy across the spectrum for decades) and it's political death.
It's not that, it's just about avoiding distractions.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
Will the bookies be paying out on NOM at Holyrood?
Or did they insert some weird loophole in it?
Ladbrokes paid out within an hour of the final tally being announced.
Caroline Lucas @CarolineLucas · 5m Would be very lovely if media were less quiet about it! These have been an amazing set of Green results 😀#GreenSurge
I knew someone would use these elections as an excuse to try and end night time counting.
Yep - not universal anyway, and the chance will be seized if peopel can. No it wouldn't be a disaster, but it wouldn't improve much anyway, and in those situations I say keep things.
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Yep, this is Peak Tory, Peak Brexit, Peak Johnson. Just generally Peak "Bad" as regards our domestic politics. That "Boris" Blimp in Pools was Jeremy at Glasto. Spookily similar. I'm quite good on peaks. I felt it then, I feel it now.
Not convinced - yet - and Boris has stayed on his high wire a long time. Hartlepool was just one more in a long line of moments that may have been the high point for many. Losing Chesham and failing to win Batley (is there still a sympathy with Labour over Jo Cox there?) would be interesting. We should listen out for expectation management.
But Boris's record is that he has never lost a battle that mattered in the climb up the greasy pole despite appearing to be completely careless about it all.
@CarlottaVance I think, candidate dependent, Labour are in the driving seat based on those numbers. Younger Labour voters are always going to turn-out less in council elections.
I could be completely wrong of course but those are my initial thoughts.
Caroline Lucas @CarolineLucas · 5m Would be very lovely if media were less quiet about it! These have been an amazing set of Green results 😀#GreenSurge
That's a fair point put in a rather needy, passive aggressive way.
I appreciate this is deeply sexist and ungallant and generally shitty, and I know on paper Dodds seems really impressive, but when I see her she brings to mind a lonely, eccentric old spinster who owns too many cats.
I agree with this too. Especially as all the extra security checks we have these days make the counts take much longer. Back when they used to be done by 2-3 am, it was manageable, but staying up to 5-6 am counting is just brutal.
I also think that a decent night's sleep will result in much better decisions in the aftermath of elections. Starmer might have given a bit more thought to sacking Rayner if he'd slept properly. I think the Con-LD coalition negotiations would have been far better conducted if all involved were not still deep in sleep deficit from election night.
Andrew Adonis @Andrew_Adonis · 7h For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair
Pass the popcorn, comrade.
Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.
Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
Yes, Blair is old but the more significant thought for Boris's bank manager might be that Tony Blair was younger than Boris is now before he retired from Number 10 to spend time making millions of ackers. Likewise David Cameron.
If Boris really is as skint as he makes out (and tbh I'm not sure he can be) then he can't leave it too long before he gets his snout in the trough. (Once the trough reopens after Covid, of course.)
Yes.
How big an advance would one of the major publishing companies pay for his memoirs? £2 million perhaps? There’s no doubt they’d sell well.
But he can’t really sign that contract until he leaves office.
That said, unlike Tony Blair he had a successful career as an author, public speaker, broadcaster before becoming PM so he’s likely to be able to re-establish himself much more quickly than Blair did.
Blair got £4.5 million. Cameron £800,000. Boris would probably be at the higher end, and can write a damn sight faster than either of his predecessors.
The big money in speeches is in the City, the Far East and America (including American academia, surprisingly to some). Two and a half of those are closed to Boris at the moment owing to Covid.
The other question is whether Boris could pick up a sinecure like George Osborne's reported £650,000 a year for occasionally phoning his mates on behalf of Blackrock or that bank.
It looks like Witney is reverting to the same politics it had before 2005, where the LD and Labour voteshares combined more or less equalled the Tory share - with some Tory Remain erosion/defection it should be possible for the LDs to take that seat next time.
Kind of explains why Cameron took the approach to modernisation that he did.
Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.
You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
After my amazing betting tips over the last 2 days I am deeply hurt
Will the bookies be paying out on NOM at Holyrood?
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
The Guardian was told that on one occasion Jim McMahon, the Oldham MP who ran the Hartlepool byelection campaign, told a meeting with the leader’s office that Rayner had been “dressed inappropriately” on a visit to the town on 21 March.
McMahon’s allies strongly denied he had been disparaging about Rayner, whose constituency borders his own in Greater Manchester, and said he was simply expressing displeasure about pictures that had been selected for a leaflet.
The photographs showed Rayner wearing leopard-print trousers, heavy-duty stomper boots and a hoodie during a visit to Hartlepool on a Sunday, when she had travelled there from her home in Tameside.
Rayner’s team “hit the roof” when they heard about the remark, sources said, but chose not to tell the deputy leader for fear of worsening relations in the middle of a difficult byelection campaign.
I appreciate this is deeply sexist and ungallant and generally shitty, and I know on paper Dodds seems really impressive, but when I see her she brings to mind a lonely, eccentric old spinster who owns too many cats.
@CarlottaVance I think, candidate dependent, Labour are in the driving seat based on those numbers. Younger Labour voters are always going to turn-out less in council elections.
I could be completely wrong of course but those are my initial thoughts.
Quite possibly....but if the government has started hosing money at Hartlepool.....
I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.
There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.
Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
Yep, this is Peak Tory, Peak Brexit, Peak Johnson. Just generally Peak "Bad" as regards our domestic politics. That "Boris" Blimp in Pools was Jeremy at Glasto. Spookily similar. I'm quite good on peaks. I felt it then, I feel it now.
I feel much the same. An unpopular government in Wales was re elected on a vaccine bounce. The same vaccine bonus applies to Johnson.
The fly in the ointment is you have people like Richard Burgon on manoeuvres (and goodness knows who else). I have news for Richard Burgon on manoeuvres, should you become leader of the Labour Party, you will never become Prime Minister, because people like me will not vote for you.
You, and others, really need to chill out about Burgon. He has less chance of leading the Labour Party, ever, than I do, or T. Blair making a come back. It will not happen - promise.
Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.
A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
Geoff Boycott?
A great choice if we're pivoting to "so unwoke we're comatose".
Lives in S Africa
I walked past Boycott in Leeds a couple of years ago. Caught his eye, smiled and nodded to him as I passed and the miserable old git stared right through me and blanked me totally. Definitely a Tory. (I jest, I jest, sorry Tories, only messing. Some of my best friends are Tories. Boycott’s definitely a Tory supporter though, I know that for sure.)
Patrick English @PME_Politics · 3h In a continuation of one of the biggest stories of the weekend, the Greens are absolutely bulldozing their way through Bristol Council right now. They've won seats from Labour and the Lib Dems.
Tory tacticians will be burning midnight oil on how to campaign so as to split the centre left anti Tory vote three ways in just the right proportions. The one advantage of being the Millwall of politics is that for your supporters there is nowhere else to go, because they all hate the Tories and the Cons can take massive electoral advantage of it. (Try the election of 1983 for a textbook case).
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
Can't the PCC-elect tell CCHQ where to get off? Surely he was elected in a personal capacity, even if he did have party backing. It's not a party list position.
I thought having a criminal record disbarred you? Not a question of party politics.
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
Can't the PCC-elect tell CCHQ where to get off? Surely he was elected in a personal capacity, even if he did have party backing. It's not a party list position.
I mean the rules are quite clear. Any conviction for an offence where the maximum sentence is imprisonment disqualifies you from standing.
The Guardian was told that on one occasion Jim McMahon, the Oldham MP who ran the Hartlepool byelection campaign, told a meeting with the leader’s office that Rayner had been “dressed inappropriately” on a visit to the town on 21 March.
McMahon’s allies strongly denied he had been disparaging about Rayner, whose constituency borders his own in Greater Manchester, and said he was simply expressing displeasure about pictures that had been selected for a leaflet.
The photographs showed Rayner wearing leopard-print trousers, heavy-duty stomper boots and a hoodie during a visit to Hartlepool on a Sunday, when she had travelled there from her home in Tameside.
Rayner’s team “hit the roof” when they heard about the remark, sources said, but chose not to tell the deputy leader for fear of worsening relations in the middle of a difficult byelection campaign.
Comments
https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1391383166569664521
Or did they insert some weird loophole in it?
More like lying Westminster arses pretend there is a deficit when in fact it is just to hide fact they have borrowed cash and pretend it has been spent on Scotland. Mugs like you are taken in easily.
“The voters have let us down. I hope they don’t live to regret it.”
Wow, just wow
On the one hand, a marvel of moving parts, machinery, representing a new age of peace, prosperity and harmony, unshakeably convinced of its own brilliance and invulnerability, steaming confidently ahead to its destination.
On the other hand, the one that will actually win, before later vanishing due to surrounding conditions.
I just wish he’d remember that when it’s not Lewis in his mirrors...
Down to the speed of a trotting horse?
I feel I must take offence.
And a gate and a small potting shed, but that’s only because I need to rebuild my garden.
And in that case, probably it would be best if they did it in the middle of the night.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9558727/Keir-Starmer-drafts-New-Labour-pollster-amid-civil-war.html
No way will they win the red wall back
If Boris really is as skint as he makes out (and tbh I'm not sure he can be) then he can't leave it too long before he gets his snout in the trough. (Once the trough reopens after Covid, of course.)
Dodds has to go.
BTW, do you have a view on an approx % probability that Sindy2 takes place in 22?
How big an advance would one of the major publishing companies pay for his memoirs? £2 million perhaps? There’s no doubt they’d sell well.
But he can’t really sign that contract until he leaves office.
That said, unlike Tony Blair he had a successful career as an author, public speaker, broadcaster before becoming PM so he’s likely to be able to re-establish himself much more quickly than Blair did.
A Labour councillor speaks
That’s not normally the sign of a healthy economy.
It's kind of tokenism - there are now very few motorways in Germany that don't have limits.
The fly in the ointment is you have people like Richard Burgon on manoeuvres (and goodness knows who else). I have news for Richard Burgon on manoeuvres, should you become leader of the Labour Party, you will never become Prime Minister, because people like me will not vote for you.
She's getting the promotion she was always going to get, so she just brought the party into disrepute with her stupid briefing for what?
No, if his opponents want him out then they need to build a coherent and attractive policy platform, around a charismatic and telegenic leader. And that doesn’t happen overnight. Ditch Kier/Keir now or it will soon be too late for the next election. But they won’t of course.
The Conservative likely to be Wiltshire’s Police & Crime Commissioner has been told by Tory HQ that he can't take the job if he wins Monday's election count. Jonathon Seed is "disbarred" over an old conviction for drink driving. More soon
https://twitter.com/DanOB1986/status/1391428545797398531
@PME_Politics
·
3h
In a continuation of one of the biggest stories of the weekend, the Greens are absolutely bulldozing their way through Bristol Council right now. They've won seats from Labour and the Lib Dems.
He clearly hates Brexit, but he dislikes Labour even more. He thinks Brexit is a major policy mistake but it hasn't changed the fundamentals of the Conservative v Labour paradigm.
Unless and until the Labour party offers a centrist, fiscally responsible and efficient tax & spend option I suspect that will remain the case.
This, however, does not necessarily mean that, as the first minister claims, holding another referendum is now clearly the "will of the people" in Scotland.
Rather, the outcome of the election confirms that Scotland is evenly divided on the constitutional question.
The three main pro-union parties won 50.4 per cent of the constituency vote, but the three main list parties secured 50.1 per cent of the list vote. The pro-independence majority is a consequence of the limitations of Holyrood’s supposedly proportional electoral system (devised over twenty years ago by Labour and the Liberal Democrats) rather than evidence of a clear majority in favour of another referendum.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/scottish-independence-referendum-boris-johnson-b1844552.html
He would be a less articulate, less intelligent and less effective version of Corbyn.
You singlehandedly saved the world from Trump!
https://twitter.com/DanOB1986/status/1391428545797398531
Always read the small print.
@CarolineLucas
·
5m
Would be very lovely if media were less quiet about it! These have been an amazing set of Green results 😀#GreenSurge
But Boris's record is that he has never lost a battle that mattered in the climb up the greasy pole despite appearing to be completely careless about it all.
The Labour and Green voteshare jump in Witney North and East is huge, which of course was David Cameron's seat.
I could be completely wrong of course but those are my initial thoughts.
A Green comment, in fact.
I know that’s awful, but that’s what I think.
I also think that a decent night's sleep will result in much better decisions in the aftermath of elections. Starmer might have given a bit more thought to sacking Rayner if he'd slept properly. I think the Con-LD coalition negotiations would have been far better conducted if all involved were not still deep in sleep deficit from election night.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1391385312325246979
The big money in speeches is in the City, the Far East and America (including American academia, surprisingly to some). Two and a half of those are closed to Boris at the moment owing to Covid.
The other question is whether Boris could pick up a sinecure like George Osborne's reported £650,000 a year for occasionally phoning his mates on behalf of Blackrock or that bank.
Kind of explains why Cameron took the approach to modernisation that he did.
The by-election will be fun.
McMahon’s allies strongly denied he had been disparaging about Rayner, whose constituency borders his own in Greater Manchester, and said he was simply expressing displeasure about pictures that had been selected for a leaflet.
The photographs showed Rayner wearing leopard-print trousers, heavy-duty stomper boots and a hoodie during a visit to Hartlepool on a Sunday, when she had travelled there from her home in Tameside.
Rayner’s team “hit the roof” when they heard about the remark, sources said, but chose not to tell the deputy leader for fear of worsening relations in the middle of a difficult byelection campaign.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/09/how-labour-fault-lines-led-to-a-seismic-event-with-angela-rayners-sacking
Did they realise it 2 days after polls closed?
https://twitter.com/DanOB1986/status/1391428545797398531?s=20
https://twitter.com/Towler/status/1391386761411059724?s=20
Edit: Jonathon Seed: Conservative PCC candidate barred after offence emerges
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-57048309
That's Codnor for you.