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I agree with Shadsy – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,170
    I knew someone would use these elections as an excuse to try and end night time counting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    35s
    Labour reshuffle still expected to go ahead today. Not imminently, however.

    Sources say Starmer has to decide Rayner’s role before anything else.

    This is even worse.

    Makes him look weak.
    I am ordering more popcorn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Whoa - we're all active participants in democracy!
    Indeed. And anyway candidates dont need to show up. They often dont at parliamentaries for the start.

    It is a bit of an imposition. But it's not as much as one as suggested.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    edited May 2021
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
    Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament the Labour Party.
    Fixed that for you.
    I know you're trying to be funny, but whether you like it or not, an elected position within the Labour Party is a senior position within the UK Parliamentary system.
    I think if she was LotO - which, I think, gets a salary from the tax-payer - then I'd agree with you.

    I appreciate that it's splitting hairs to a certain extent, but there's a bit of me that thinks Labour's biggest problem is its MPs. The Tories aren't anything special, but they look brilliant compared with the likes of Rayner.
    I haven't seen enough of Rayner to comment, but like I've said before, she must be good at something to get to where she is. However of course what is 'brilliant' to the Labour Party does not necessarily have universal appeal...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    No, because it hasn’t collapsed although a few cracks have appeared that the leadership would do well to heed.

    They won’t, because they’re drunk with success in the North, and of course they’re very stupid, but they should.
    Those cracks can easily be wallpapered over - the best that blue money can buy! :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.

    Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.

    Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.

    Public service is tough.
    Thought you said public service is trough!

    Are you by any chance a member of the House of Lords?
    First it's tough, then you trough as a reward.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.

    Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.

    Largely because it is going to get worse.

    Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.

    As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.

    Well may you ask, mate.
    Still turning out to vote, apparently.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Alistair said:

    Notice the laugh as Sturgeon mutters “fiscal transfer” to herself before launching into an answer so vacuous that it immediately collapses.

    First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”

    And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20

    It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster

    Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
    Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".

    Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
    Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
    The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....

    You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?

    Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    edited May 2021
    What I don't understand is why Starmer didn't have a plan for this very eventuality ready to go? Maybe I have too high expectations.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.

    Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.

    Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.

    Public service is tough.
    Besides which many of us have jobs that require us to put in hours necessary, I know for example that to hit a deadline I have had to work 30 or more hours straight so sympathy is scant from my side. Think my record was went to work as normal tuesday left friday and only caught about 4 hours sleep under my desk in that time
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.

    There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.

    Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    The old Blue Wall has had rather more of a normal mid-term set of results. Still very, very good considering they were coming off exceptionally good results from Theresa May's 2017 effort, where the Conservatives gained 563 seats. There really was only one way to go from there. Yet the LibDems haven't advanced at all, with Greens and Independents carrying off the prizes. Labour has continued its woeful efforts - considering it was down 382 councillors in 2017 as well.

    But net since 2016/2017, a mid term Government has still added over 200 more seats. So no, it isn't exactly a Boris-led disaster, is it now? Much as you might wish it to be.
    I don't think Scott is calling it a Boris-led disaster. He's merely pointing out a subtext that may be important in the coming years. You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.
    Oh, I know exactly what argument he was making!
    BBBBRRREEEMMMAAAIIINNN!!!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    I think that the collapse of the Home Counties blue ring is some way off, but these results could be a straw in the wind. Taking voters for granted because they cannot go anywhere else is what got Labour into this mess.

    The fanbois rapid rebuttal team reaction is revealing
    It's called measured assessment. You should try it some time....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Does look like the UK govt has benefitted somewhat from the declaration timetable this weekend - results in local and other elections declaring late Saturday/Sunday look worse for Cons than those declaring on Friday/early Saturday.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1391409161234173958?s=20

    Maybe, but you can only choreograph a shit sandwich for Labour so much.
    Is that another Brit delicacy, perhaps a variation of toad-in-the-hole?
    Oh, you've now made me fancy toad-in-the-hole.

    Not today, though. I have a joint of roast beef in the oven today - silverside.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Exodus of EU truckers leaves UK hauliers facing acute driver shortages https://on.ft.com/3bfLuzD
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    I think that the collapse of the Home Counties blue ring is some way off, but these results could be a straw in the wind. Taking voters for granted because they cannot go anywhere else is what got Labour into this mess.

    The fanbois rapid rebuttal team reaction is revealing
    Just as well because your posts were completely unexpected! Really groundbreaking. I think Starmer may want a chat....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2021
    ..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...

    Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1391417459677224967?s=20

    Starmer needs a Willie....
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    It's called measured assessment.

    Really?

    Cos it looked and sounded like a hissy fit.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    ..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...

    Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1391417459677224967?s=20

    It's starting to look like he's losing his grip on the party already to me
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    Let's be honest, it was crap
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    What I don't understand is why Starmer didn't have a plan for this very eventuality ready to go? Maybe I have too high expectations.

    Starmer's plan seems to be to react when a rake whacks him upside the head.

    By...standing on another rake. He truly is the Sideshow Bob of British politics.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    What I don't understand is why Starmer didn't have a plan for this very eventuality ready to go? Maybe I have too high expectations.

    In that awful TV interview he seemed utterly wrecked so I reckon he didn't think it was gonna be this bad. In itself that is pretty damming for him and those around him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,170
    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    Labour didn't do well in any of the places it needs to do in order to win an election. London, Wales, Bristol, Manchester are all places Labour would win even if they went below 200 seats.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.

    Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.

    Largely because it is going to get worse.

    Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.

    As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.

    Well may you ask, mate.
    The betting on the Chesham by election does not quite match this view. With traditional by election exaggerated swing this might be be a reverse Hartlepool, but for second place LD, not Labour. But the betting says not.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited May 2021
    Brom said:

    There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.

    Bet he doesn't.

    Smarkets (but not BF) has a market on Starmer leaving date and a market on whether he will be challenged.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.

    Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.

    Largely because it is going to get worse.

    Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.

    As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.

    Well may you ask, mate.
    Ooo you are awful, truly you are, but I very occasionally like you.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Brom said:

    There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.

    They should hold B&S but these days who knows. Much may depend on the candidate choice this time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    Starmer appears to be far too earnest. If Boris Johnson had lost everything he would have made it sound like a resounding victory.

    Those results that were OK for Labour have had Priti Patel spitting feathers. So she is going to change the electoral system to FPTP so that next time they won't be OK for Labour.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Maybe this is mad, but Labour should hire Dominic Cummings...

    Would be great craic if nothing else
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Alistair said:

    Notice the laugh as Sturgeon mutters “fiscal transfer” to herself before launching into an answer so vacuous that it immediately collapses.

    First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”

    And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20

    It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster

    Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
    Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".

    Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
    Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
    The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....

    You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?

    Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
    The "E"CW started in Scotland because they tried to impose C of E practices and put the King as head of the Kirk in Scotland. Not tactful. Not friendly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    tlg86 said:

    Foss said:

    Another German poll with the Greens as largest party.

    Germany, Kantar poll:

    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 26% (-1)
    CDU/CSU-EPP: 23% (-1)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (+1)
    FDP-RE: 12% (+1)
    AfD-ID: 10%
    LINKE-LEFT: 7%

    +/- vs. 22-28 April 2021

    Fieldwork: 29 April - 5 May 2021
    Sample size: 1,910

    https://t.co/bbexiPyox9 pic.twitter.com/YJJfvarISb

    — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 9, 2021
    The combined AfD and Linke vote of 17% would be down 5 points on 2017, which obviously helps in terms of coalition building.

    Linke could even miss the 5% hurdle, which would really shake things up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,170
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    QTWTAIN.
    The worst-case scenario for the Tories in those areas would be a loss of about 10 seats. But boundary changes will probably grant them an extra 10 seats in the same areas anyway.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Wonder what the starting odds in Batley & Span will be. Something like Con 8/11, Lab 11/10?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Exodus of EU truckers leaves UK hauliers facing acute driver shortages https://on.ft.com/3bfLuzD

    And you know what will happen? It means that wages for truckers will rise, until enough Brits want to be truckers...

    Now, some industries may end up being priced out in these circumstances (like fruit picking), but I somehow don't think trucking will be on of them.
    Don't confuse fanatics with economics.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    Let's be honest, it was crap
    It wasn’t all bad . This was not a wholesale rejection of Labour . Equally if the vaccine rollout had gone bad and the Tories were punished by voters commentators would have been making the wrong conclusions. Until covid is out of the way we won’t know the true state of the parties .
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021
    Welsh Police and Crime Commissioners finished counting

    South Wales: Alun Michael (Labour) re-elected (yes, he is still around)
    Gwent: Jeff Cuthbert (Labour) re-elected
    Dyfed-Powys: Dafydd Llewelyn (Plaid) re-elected.
    North Wales: Andy Dunbobbin (Labour) gain from Plaid. Plaid incumbent didn't stand again. Conservative ahead in first preferences but Plaid's transfers pushed Labour in front.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Cookie said:

    nico679 said:

    The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .

    There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.



    I think that’s optimistic ultimately. We’ve seen how rigid the EU are with rules, and they’d have the integrity of the single market to protect between the border of Scotland and England.

    Lots of SNP supporters seem to be hoping - being blimey optimistic - that the EU will want a newly succeeded state, with little financial track record, back within the club. It is a huge risk - and the EU doesn’t do risk well
    They took on far dodgier states in Eastern Europe. Financial risk is a secondary consideration to expanding the empire. And they'll see it as a Brexit victory.
    I think the second point is the key one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    ..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...

    Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1391417459677224967?s=20

    Starmer needs a Willie....

    Instead of which he has a Mandy. Not sure of the wisdom of it. But let's see.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Labour should call the Batley and Spen election a week after Cummings gives his evidence and hope there’s enough dirt to harm Bozo . Although currently it looks like Bozo could blow up a school bus and his fans would still give him a pass!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    Let's be honest, it was crap
    It wasn’t all bad . This was not a wholesale rejection of Labour . Equally if the vaccine rollout had gone bad and the Tories were punished by voters commentators would have been making the wrong conclusions. Until covid is out of the way we won’t know the true state of the parties .
    It wasn't a wholesale rejection of Labour, you're right.

    But it was a wholesale rejection of Labour by enough people to make winning a GE impossible and that ultimately is the goal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    algarkirk said:

    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.

    Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.

    Largely because it is going to get worse.

    Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.

    As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.

    Well may you ask, mate.
    The betting on the Chesham by election does not quite match this view. With traditional by election exaggerated swing this might be be a reverse Hartlepool, but for second place LD, not Labour. But the betting says not.

    My guess is that Chesham will be a repeat of Whitney: LibDems up a lot, but still quite some way behind Con.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    kinabalu said:

    ..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...

    Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1391417459677224967?s=20

    Starmer needs a Willie....

    Instead of which he has a Mandy. Not sure of the wisdom of it. But let's see.
    Why wasn't Mandy in the room?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    For this reassuring message to be true for Labour there needs to be a sort of revised list of 50-75 non Labour held seats that they can win in 23/24 on the basis of doing well in parts of Surrey, Worthing, Tories doing less well in Tunbridge Wells and a few other south east places. There would need to be a reverse new red wall in the non ultra-urban southern half of England. I can't find the seats. Can anyone?

    I agree they have managed the post match analysis badly, but the bigger question is the seatology of destroying the Tory majority when the Tories are also advancing.

    Maybe the Hams by-election will give some clues.


  • How do PB Tories intend to explain changing the voting system in London as a positive?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,982
    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    The Indy movement is a broader church than the narrower SNP/Green party could attract in the constituency vote. I expect repercussions in the next couple of years as this becomes evident to those who blindly followed the SNP1&2 mantra.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    nico679 said:

    The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .

    There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.



    I think that’s optimistic ultimately. We’ve seen how rigid the EU are with rules, and they’d have the integrity of the single market to protect between the border of Scotland and England.

    Lots of SNP supporters seem to be hoping - being blimey optimistic - that the EU will want a newly succeeded state, with little financial track record, back within the club. It is a huge risk - and the EU doesn’t do risk well
    They took on far dodgier states in Eastern Europe. Financial risk is a secondary consideration to expanding the empire. And they'll see it as a Brexit victory.
    I think the second point is the key one.
    Especially since on the first point there was a gap of 15 years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    felix said:

    Brom said:

    There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.

    They should hold B&S but these days who knows. Much may depend on the candidate choice this time.
    Ed Balls.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ministers are pressing ahead with changes to electoral law that could make it easier for Conservatives to win future mayoral elections, as Labour claimed 10 of the 13 posts being contested across England.

    The UK home secretary, Priti Patel, has already unveiled plans to switch all future English mayoral elections from the existing supplementary vote system – in which the public ranks their two favourite candidates – to the first past the post system used in elections to the House of Commons.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/09/government-to-change-english-voting-system-after-labour-mayoral-victories
  • Probably a boring this to say, but this site is at its worst when otherwise interesting posters are nakedly partisan. For example, nobody is denying that Labour munched a “shit sandwich”. That doesn’t make the Tory Home Counties slump any less interesting.

    Credit to @contrarian for his nonpartisan take.

    You, @contrarian, @Stocky and @HYUFD are the posters I come here to read now, the rest is like a boring football match, which is mainly "Johnson is crap" vs "Starmer is crap"
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.

    A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.

    A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
    Geoff Boycott?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited May 2021
    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    A good point. But it was the margin in Hartlepool, I think. The loss was expected. By 7k was a genuine shocker. I didn't see that coming and I've been on the bearish end of things.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Ministers are pressing ahead with changes to electoral law that could make it easier for Conservatives to win future mayoral elections, as Labour claimed 10 of the 13 posts being contested across England.

    The UK home secretary, Priti Patel, has already unveiled plans to switch all future English mayoral elections from the existing supplementary vote system – in which the public ranks their two favourite candidates – to the first past the post system used in elections to the House of Commons.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/09/government-to-change-english-voting-system-after-labour-mayoral-victories

    I'm not sure it will help.

    For example I would have voted Labour 1st choice rather than 2nd choice for Northumbria PCC if it was a straight FPTP fight between Lab and Con, rather than the nice independent who I picked as my 1st choice.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edited May 2021

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Are the HWDI to stand again?

    This would be the second B and S by election in a few years. Last time no fewer than 9 candidates, to their eternal shame, stood against Labour following the murder of Jo Cox.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    Scott_xP said:

    It's called measured assessment.

    Really?

    Cos it looked and sounded like a hissy fit.
    You've thrown enough to know what a hissy fit REALLY looks like....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    algarkirk said:

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Are the HWDI to stand again?

    All we like sheep have gone astray...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Scott_xP said:

    It's called measured assessment.

    Really?

    Cos it looked and sounded like a hissy fit.
    You've thrown enough to know what a hissy fit REALLY looks like....
    Come on, this is really immature...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Artist said:

    Wonder what the starting odds in Batley & Span will be. Something like Con 8/11, Lab 11/10?

    Labour could be in the middle of a terrible civil war and the public do not reward divided parties
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.

    There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.

    Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.

    The coalition that won in 2019 was made up of 75% of the then-LEAVE vote (48%) and 20% of the then-REMAIN vote (52%) - roughly.

    The latter, while not supportive of leaving the EU in 2016, either considered the requirement to settle the issue the paramount consideration or were so terrified of Jeremy Corbyn they were always to vote for any party capable of stopping him.

    The question for the opposition is how you break apart that coalition. Time will help - as the distance between our membership of the EU and the present increases, so the salience of 2016 should diminish. The second part will depend on whether the latter group is fiscally conservative (in which case there's an opening) or would be willing to support a "centrist" Labour party or whether they are Conservative no matter what (I suspect elements of all three).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    Maybe this is mad, but Labour should hire Dominic Cummings...

    Would be great craic if nothing else

    Dominic Cummings has found a new self-help guru btw: Julia Galef. I'm up to chapter 4 in her book, The Scout Mindset, which seems underwhelming so far. You can watch her 10 minute TEDx talk on the subject at:-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MYEtQ5Zdn8
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Well, that was a tough run chase for Somerset,

    What a waste of a good cricket ball.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Regardless of whether the counters are tired, the activists are knackered or the bettors are excited, it would save the public purse a large amount if the ballot papers were shuffled around during normal working hours rather than in the middle of the night. It's not as though any of the results are likely to be different.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    algarkirk said:

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Are the HWDI to stand again?

    Bigger question is will Count Binface stand? And where will Shadsy pitch his vote this time!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Artist said:

    Wonder what the starting odds in Batley & Span will be. Something like Con 8/11, Lab 11/10?

    Labour could be in the middle of a terrible civil war and the public do not reward divided parties
    Except in December 2019.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.

    There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.

    Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.

    Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Chris said:

    Regardless of whether the counters are tired, the activists are knackered or the bettors are excited, it would save the public purse a large amount if the ballot papers were shuffled around during normal working hours rather than in the middle of the night. It's not as though any of the results are likely to be different.

    Why? Do they paid some special rate of overtime?

    Most people don't get paid overtime, so I'm sure they'd find willing people to cover the night shifts at a normal rate of remuneration.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    FPT
    MaxPB said:

    » show previous quotes
    Don't worry too much, Scotland is a nation of bottlers. You will once again vote for the apron strings. It's a nation that likes to talk but won't vote to lose all of the UK funded sweeties like free prescriptions and free university tuition.

    bollox , you lying dumb horse's arse
    PS: At least we are not Richard pullers. @MaxPB
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    Labour are managing to turn a drama into a crisis .

    The results they had were mixed but they seem intent on telling everyone they’re crap. Wales was good , Scotland okay given where they were before Sarwar took over , Hartlepool wasn’t a surprise given 2019 and the council election results were bad but hardly a catastrophe , some good mayoral results . Labour seem to have ignored how the vaccine rollout would effect these elections and seem intent on self-flaggelating themselves .

    Going around telling everyone that you’re crap when you’ve also had some decent results is utterly self-defeating and the height of idiocy .

    A good point. But it was the margin in Hartlepool, I think. The loss was expected. By 7k was a genuine shocker. I didn't see that coming and I've been on the bearish end of things.
    And very few of us saw their seat losses would be in the hundreds.....
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.

    A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
    Uh oh! You’re turning into a Tory! You’d better go and get your fill of kisses with young lefties sharpish.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    A meaningless shibboleth,'generation'.
    The SNP government's words, nobody else's....

    But then in fairness "Scotland's Future was packed chock full of meaningless shibboleths

    You rolling up the trouser leg then
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    ·
    7h
    For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair


    Pass the popcorn, comrade.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.

    A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
    Geoff Boycott?
    His gran. She could have won that...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848

    How do PB Tories intend to explain changing the voting system in London as a positive?

    The ballot paper was too complicated....look at how many spoilt ballots there were....switching will make the ballot paper simpler....job done
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    You are missing that what was rejected in 2019 was Corbyn personally, not "the left" or even Corbynism. You are missing that Corbyn was very popular just two years earlier. You are missing that Boris pinched much of Labour's 2017 platform for 2019.

    And of course, you are missing that Starmer might lose.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    felix said:

    Brom said:

    There’s every chance Lab lose Batley and Spen and finish a distant 3rd in Chesham & Amersham. If Starmer doesn’t face a leadership challenge before that surely he will afterwards.

    They should hold B&S but these days who knows. Much may depend on the candidate choice this time.
    Ed Balls.
    Because that wouldn't fuel Skyr's paranoia about losing his job, no sirreeee.....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Maybe this is mad, but Labour should hire Dominic Cummings...

    Would be great craic if nothing else

    Why pay him when he seems happy enough to do what he does pro bono?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited May 2021


    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    ·
    7h
    For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair


    Pass the popcorn, comrade.

    Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.

    Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Notice the laugh as Sturgeon mutters “fiscal transfer” to herself before launching into an answer so vacuous that it immediately collapses.

    First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”

    And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20

    It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster

    Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
    Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".

    Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
    Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
    The "English Civil War" started in Scotland.....

    You wonder why Scotland entered the Union then?

    Oh yes, it was broke and wanted access to the English market - something Ms Sturgeon appears willing to reverse....
    The "E"CW started in Scotland because they tried to impose C of E practices and put the King as head of the Kirk in Scotland. Not tactful. Not friendly.
    Yes, it was deeply foolish.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Chameleon said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    An emphatic no from former Labour activist and BBC journalist Lewis Goodall.

    Doesn’t mean it won’t come but it’s not there at the moment.

    Oxfordshire is no surprise and, from what I’ve read, is largely local,issues not national. Same as Durham. Team Starmer are not to blame here.
    I'm not aware of any local issues here in Oxfordshire outside of the Tories being generally unpopular relative to normal.
    Neither am I, I’m only paraphrasing from a pre election review I read.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Artist said:

    Wonder what the starting odds in Batley & Span will be. Something like Con 8/11, Lab 11/10?

    Labour could be in the middle of a terrible civil war and the public do not reward divided parties
    When have Labour not been in the midst of a terrible civil war? Even in the glory days of Blair, Corbyn was taking his bat and ball home, and McDonnell was plotting Blair's downfall.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    20m
    Another Green gain from Labour in Bristol.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    ..... three Labour MPs have been in touch to say they are very concerned Starmer is consulting no one on the reshuffle with strong knowledge of and links to the parliamentary Labour Party. And another source tells me that those “in the room” yesterday with...

    Starmer were Jenny Chapman (political secretary), Chris Ward (political adviser), Ben Nunn (comms director) Claire Ainsley (policy director) and Morgan McSweeney (chief of staff). No MPs at all.


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1391417459677224967?s=20

    Starmer needs a Willie....

    Instead of which he has a Mandy. Not sure of the wisdom of it. But let's see.
    Why wasn't Mandy in the room?
    I don't know. He's famous for "behind the scenes", though, isn't he. Reason being his actual physical presence causes heckles to rise in many.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690


    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    ·
    7h
    For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair


    Pass the popcorn, comrade.

    Kindly Uncle Tone has been unusually high profile in the last 6-12 months. Now he’s made off like a bandit for 14 years, perhaps he’s itching to slide back into the chair.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Judging by what has been declared so far, Greens will be the largest party on Bristol City Council
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    20m
    Another Green gain from Labour in Bristol.

    What happened to that smarmy git Marvin Rees? Was he re-elected?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Judging by what has been declared so far, Greens will be the largest party on Bristol City Council

    They couldn’t possibly be worse than Labour have been.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited May 2021

    LABOUR WIN:

    West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin elected.

    There will be a by-election in her constituency of Batley & Spen


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1391416783853215748?s=20

    Labour need to find a candidate from Yorkshire, from outside politics, without a Twitter feed to pick through for pro-remain Tweets, amongst other things.

    A local business leader like Andy Street would be good.
    Geoff Boycott?
    A great choice if we're pivoting to "so unwoke we're comatose".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    How do PB Tories intend to explain changing the voting system in London as a positive?

    Look how many rejected ballots there were for starters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    ydoethur said:


    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    ·
    7h
    For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair


    Pass the popcorn, comrade.

    Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.

    Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
    Biden is 103.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:


    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    ·
    7h
    For what it’s worth, it is my judgement that the only Labour leader likely to be able to win the next election is Tony Blair


    Pass the popcorn, comrade.

    Weird to think Tony Blair is now 67 years old. Older than Corbyn was when he became leader. Older than Howard during his leadership.

    Edit - oops, got his birthday wrong. 68 three days ago!
    Biden is 103.
    Not quite, although as with Ronald Reagan there are times when he looks as if he is!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    ydoethur said:

    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    20m
    Another Green gain from Labour in Bristol.

    What happened to that smarmy git Marvin Rees? Was he re-elected?
    Yes, last night.
    He had a 10% lead over Greens after 1 prefs. Second preferences were more or less equal because half of the eliminated votes were non-transferable
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    nico679 said:

    Labour should call the Batley and Spen election a week after Cummings gives his evidence and hope there’s enough dirt to harm Bozo . Although currently it looks like Bozo could blow up a school bus and his fans would still give him a pass!

    Look, the school bus was going to blow up anyways and we also had no idea pushing the plunger would actually blow up the bus so I think we can give BoJo a pass there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    kinabalu said:

    I see that 20-25% of Conservative votes for London Mayor gave Lib Dem or Green for second preference (or it might have been the other way round, I forget) suggesting that quite a few Remainers in London voted Bailey.

    There's clearly more to a Conservative vote than just Brexit and I suspect that extends into the home counties too.

    Conservatives seem to be better at holding onto Remain voters than Labour are at holding onto Leave voters.

    Is the nub of it. Bastard bastard Brexit has screwed Labour to the wall.
    We are at peak Brexit. Picture the scene, Alicante Airport and all those Hartlepudlians having to queue with the Russians to clear immigration whilst the Germans sail through.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,170
    Foss said:

    Another German poll with the Greens as largest party.

    Germany, Kantar poll:

    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 26% (-1)
    CDU/CSU-EPP: 23% (-1)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (+1)
    FDP-RE: 12% (+1)
    AfD-ID: 10%
    LINKE-LEFT: 7%

    +/- vs. 22-28 April 2021

    Fieldwork: 29 April - 5 May 2021
    Sample size: 1,910

    https://t.co/bbexiPyox9 pic.twitter.com/YJJfvarISb

    — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 9, 2021
    The German Greens apparently want to scrap the no speed limit situation on motorways.
This discussion has been closed.