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I agree with Shadsy – politicalbetting.com
I agree with Shadsy – politicalbetting.com
Wouldn't it be much better if we just started counting general election votes at 9am the next morning?
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However, that’s not the worst idea either. Make the Thursday and the Friday of a General Election a bank holiday weekend, and then the markets won’t panic every five minutes according to Twitter reports and the disengaged will be pleased it’s happening.
https://twitter.com/doglab/status/1391348538282500098
I hope the Irish courts give that bastard five years as a sharp lesson.
Bad news for Somerset and quite possibly England.
Edit - not helping Hants though!
Not the same after a good nights sleep, and no quicker or more accurate.
It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him
Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.
Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.
After St Albans, they were up to -3 and they’re 4 up in Oxfordshire as it stands.
One way to do it would be to have the polls close at noon on the Friday.
A number of constituencies have always preferred to count "in the daylight". In 1997, I had worked in the St Ives ending up telling at Zennor at 9.30pm.
I had been on first shift since 7am and was shattered. I missed all the overnight fun but went down to St John's Hall in Penzance for the count for the constituency (which includes the Scillies). It was a glorious day both politically and meteorologically but it wouldn't have been the same at 3am the night before.
I have two comments - first, there would need to be adequate and proper security arrangements in place to ensure ballot boxes are unopened - this happens now with European election results as we know.
Second, and I don't know if this would compromise the above - would it be possible to do some initial work on establishing turnout numbers for example (from the marked registers) or separate (if necessary) ballots for the GE from any local election contests occurring at the same time? Very often, (though not last time), a GE will coincide with a round of local elections and that can slow the process considerably.
Counting national ballots on Friday and local ballots on Saturday seems eminently sensible.
Edit - and I do seem to remember a fair amount of market volatility over Trump’s actions, although I will admit I wasn’t paying attention.
What am I missing
'Necessary? Is it necessary for me to drink my own urine? No, but I do it anyway because it's sterile and I like the taste.'
‘Organ is no Hammond.’
(By which presumably they mean Miles Hammond, the Gloucestershire T20 opener.)
I think it’s fair to say though that Hampshire have throughout this match batted if not like a Hammond, at least like a bunch of Wallies.
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
"Those were the elections that were, they're over, let 'em go"
Not much chance on here.
My first thought is trying to cast huge national generalisations on what were, especially in England, local contests, is going to be problematic at best.
I commented on Scotland last night - in Wales. too, Labour have defied some of the expectations (hopes) on here and have survived to carry on governing (I think Charles Hawtrey wasn't in that one).
As for England - the more you look at it, the more it defies generalisation and characterisation. There are many Englands, not only politically but culturally and socially. Boris Johnson speaks for some, perhaps many, of them but not all.
The results show a patchwork of different political Englands - why did the Conservatives do so well in Kent and East Sussex but so poorly in Surrey? Why did the LDs do so badly in Cornwall?
I presume the unsurprising answer is they were local elections and thus the opportunity for less than half the electorate to hold "the council" to account. Where the council was deemed to be performing well, the incumbent prospered, where they weren't, they didn't.
That's one layer over which others can be placed because the results are multi-dimensional (as they often are).
They may attract more Centrists from the LDs and Tories, but if Labour lose the Red Wall, the working class and the socialists, are they even Labour anymore?
Even Nass can’t put the hex on them like I do.
Imagine how much IPL franchises will pay me to praise their next opponents...
My pride was shortlived.
And although Euro production has accelerated, that's still the rate limiting step.
Having said that, France is trying a new wheeze- I think starting this week. Although the main booking is still age-restricted (55+ plus, or younger people with risk factors) they're introducing a kind of lastminute.com facility where anyone can book slots that are still available the night before.
https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1390239205511606274?s=19
Greens +81.
The one remaining area of LibDem strength is among posh remainers.
If there are many Englands, there are many Londons. Sadiq won though a ringing endorsement it was not. As long as you appreciate how little actual power the Mayor has, expecting bold and radical accomplishments is always going to leave you disappointed.
The Mayor is a high-profile low-responsibility post which suits a certain type of politician (the extrovert populist) but if you think you're going to change people's lives, you're in the wrong job.
Oddly enough, even though it hasn't happened yet, I think it's easier for a Mayor to be elected (you're different to the incumbent) than to be re-elected (everyone knows who you are and what you haven't done).
Bailey could call on the core Conservative vote in London (around 30% at higher turnout elections) and with turnout down four points, it got him to a respectable number (though not much different from Goldsmith in 2016).
With more "opportunity" to protest and less desire to go out and vote, Khan's vote peeled away at the margins so he ended up with just 40%. It's worth noting the Greens won the second preferences overall but Khan was always going to get more "seconds" than Bailey and in the end he won comfortably.
The Greens did okay - the LD performance was disastrous and there are questions for both parties going forward.
Perhaps the most revealing aspect was the strong Conservative performance in hitherto weak areas. As I noted with the East Ham Central by-election, the Conservative vote was well up. In that contest, the Labour vote fell from 2,775 to 2,297 but the Conservative vote jumped from 470 to 1,288 as the turnout rose to the mid-40s.
Looking ahead to next year, we have the London locals. The lack of change across the GLA suggests no particular political earthquake. Barnet looks safe for the Conservatives based on the East Barnet by-election and Richmond looks secure for the LDs. I'd be less confident about Kingston for the LDs but we'll see.
Of course, national political events may provide a different climate than the one we are currently experiencing but Labour are defending 1,100 seats and the Conservatives only 500 so the "expectation management" may be an interesting game.
Plenty of Conservative seats to capture in 2024 and 2025 on these numbers.
Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority
https://archive.ph/eg2lt
"If you can dodge a WRENCH, you can dodge a ball!"
Ummmmm...
How dare you tamper with the handiwork of the Almighty Market! AND blaspheme against the memory of Adam Smith!
And you call your self whatever you call yourself!!
Such great analysis. Insightful.
And I have to ask what are you running scared of? I personally want the referendum done so the Scots are told the truth and can face reality
Waiting is the worst.
Because he's a petulant pillock.
You might as well invoke the monster under the bed.
First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”
And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20
AND below are some thoughts I posted yesterday after most PBers had taken to the beds - some after doing excellent impersonations of mid-20th century Labour MP and cabinet minister GEORGE BROWN when he was particularly "tired and emotional" (see below after my screed)
Re: election management & observation, Cookie said something to the effect that, when he observed an election, things appeared to him quite well organized.
Indeed, that is generally the impression that most people come to - often to their surprise - when the actually observe an actual election being counted.
Have seen & heard it MANY times, at many elections in many places.
Folks come down to election central (wherever it is) with all kinds of concerns, opinions, criticisms. Then after they've been there a while, had the process(es) explained, asked questions and observed the work AND the workers, they come away rather impressed. AND with some appreciation of the requirements, complexities and challenges involved in conducting a free and fair election.
That's been my personal experience over 30 years plus, from Seattle to Dublin & back.
And, in case you can't tell, I have a TREMENDOUS respect for election workers. Who are some of the hardest working, most conscientious and dedicated people I've ever met. Ditto patriot. Also frank and forthright, in an line of work where "gotcha!" is always a possibility.
And were a politically-motivated mob can materialize, of whatever persuasion is behind in a very or even somewhat close election. Especially when the world is calling, crying, DEMANDING results half an hour ago, regardless of how many ballots or how many issues (like the COVID for instance) may crop up during the election and/or the count.
For example, if you're the Secretary of State of Georgia! One year, the opposition party is calling you a fraudster; the next, your OWN party's calling you a fraud AND a traitor.
And some people think it's all as easy as falling off a log.
BBC Rewind: Robin Day v George Brown
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-29932208
My weekly look at how Newham is doing in the Covid vaccination programme.
Among all those over 50, 62,490 have received a first dose and of those 22,637 have had a second dose. Total estimated population over 50 in Newham is 88,187 so that means 70.9% have had a first vaccination and 25.6% have had both leaving more than 25,000 people over 50 with no protection at all.
Among those aged over 70, 14,241 have received a first vaccination and of those 11,521 have received a second vaccination. Total estimated population over 70 in Newham is 17,785 so that means 81% have received a first vaccination and 64.8% have received both vaccinations. That also means there are 3,500 people over 70 in Newham who have no virus protection.
These figures don't concern me inasmuch as both Mrs Stodge and I will be having our second vaccinations before long but it reminds me just how many people the vaccination rollout programme hasn't reached in my part of the world.
But then in fairness "Scotland's Future was packed chock full of meaningless shibboleths
Off topic, will this be the first day this year on which no new cover deaths are announced? I predict it will. Although at the levels we're at it's all noise anyway, with notifications and denotifications cancelling each other out starting to outweigh actual real data.
Which means how each side proceeds from now is a matter of tactics.