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I agree with Shadsy – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 9 in General
I agree with Shadsy – politicalbetting.com

Wouldn't it be much better if we just started counting general election votes at 9am the next morning?

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Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Could work, but only if they made the Friday a bank holiday.

    However, that’s not the worst idea either. Make the Thursday and the Friday of a General Election a bank holiday weekend, and then the markets won’t panic every five minutes according to Twitter reports and the disengaged will be pleased it’s happening.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Floater said:
    That’s really bad. What sort of utter imbecile would think that was clever?

    I hope the Irish courts give that bastard five years as a sharp lesson.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    Floater said:
    It looked deliberate to me - not the action of a moron
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168
    Nah.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Charles said:

    Floater said:
    It looked deliberate to me - not the action of a moron
    Anyone who would do that deliberately would have a room temperature IQ.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,921
    This is probably sensible, but as a one-time activist (in 2016) there was something rather exhilarating about getting up early, doing GOTV until near the close of polls, then attending the count. That said it took me a couple of days to recover, but just going to bed at 10pm would have felt rather tame in comparison.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Somerset now have Hampshire by the Organ.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    felix said:

    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.

    The Exit Poll would have to be embargoed, wouldn't it?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,245
    FPT
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. Betfair should put up a Starmer exit date market. It'd be quite active.

    Further to Labour, @CarlottaVance posted on PT this piece by Curtice -

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/newe.12228

    He describes the 2 competing visions for where the party goes post Brexit.

    "The Dominant Narrative": Leave/Remain will fade as a political identity. Left/Right and Class will reassert itself. So get back to the knitting. Win back the WWC. Left. Big State. Patriotism.

    "The Alternative Narrative": Leave/Remain is here to stay. So make the choice as the Cons have done. Be the party of Remainers and proud of it. Centrist. Liberal. Internationalist.

    I find this interesting because it shows how big the challenge is. For example, I personally, as a Labour member and voter, can't easily decide which of the above I prefer. I like and dislike bits of both. And maybe Starmer feels the same because it's not totally clear to me right now where he's at.

    Fwiw, forgetting everything apart from winning elections, and if SKS were to fall on his sword and the party were to replace him with me, I think I would go full fat with the Alternative Narrative. Bye bye working class, hello social liberals (any class welcome).

    But I'm not sure.

    David Herdson, on twitter the other day, asked "Why should Labour even be 'about' the 'working class' (whatever that means)? Why not define itself by values and ideology instead?"

    Which seems like a similar theme.

    I was quite taken aback by it to be honest. Labour, to me, by definition should always be about whats best for the working class/low paid workers, that is the reason why I have never been able to comprehend their love for FOM, which as Maurice Glasman put it (I think), is "The biggest capitalist con trick invented by man"

    ...from about 20 mins in, very interesting analysis of the effects of global capitalism on the working class from a left wing perspective, which I pretty much 100% agree with

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa5vsa1FLKY
    Tricky one, isn't it. However I manage to be Left and also a Globalist. Here's how. Free movement and globalization increases global GDP and reduces inequality between countries. Both good. But if unfettered it increases inequality within countries and this is bad. Therefore in mitigation the UK government should legislate domestically in favour of labour and against capital. Which I support. That's how I square the circle.

    And colours to the mast, I see 'free movement' as a great great thing. That people can move painlessly across national borders to live and work as they wish - for me that's a wonderful aspiration to always be progressing towards, Europe and elsewhere. Of course there are problems with it - eg unbalanced flows, wage distortions, housing, culture clashes, etc - but like I say that's where governments come in. Stop pandering and scapegoating. Address those issues.

    What's the point otherwise? Just hunker down and park the bus? No. Not for me. Let's elevate. The beautiful game.
    Apart from it is easy to say legislate and regulate. Not so easy however to come up with anything that addresses the issues of unlimited immigration causing for example a race to the bottom on wages.

    Let me guess you are going to say higher minimum wage - all you do then he attract even more of a flow from countries with low minimum wage to those with higher as we saw in eastern european migration

    Ah you will say then we set a global minimum wage - well apart from the obvious absurdity of getting the whole world to agree then all you do is change the flow from countries with high costs of living to those with low.

    The other problem of course with high minimum wages is the more jobs you drag into the minimum wage net the less value people see in doing those jobs. If I could get the same being a barista as I get for my current job for example I would quit in an instant.

    As I said easy to wave your hand airily and say legislate/ regulate not so easy to actually come up with anything to solve the issues
    TBF - to me - I'm not dismissing the difficulties. Free movement in a world of such appalling wealth inequality is utopian. But it's a great aspiration and should be embraced when and where possible, ie if people can be convinced that the social & economic benefits outweigh the costs. The hope would be that as time passes we see more "FM" areas being created in various regions around the world. If this doesn't happen it would be a bit depressing. Even more so if we go in the other direction. Which we seem to be atm.
    The difficulties though are far from being merely economic. They are cultural. How would you feel for example after throwing our borders open if we had a massive influx of sub saharan black christians and muslims, say for the sake of argument 15 million or so.....enough to shift the voting balance. Then with their voting power they start voting for a repeal of gay marriage. They are after all not known for their liberal views on homosexuality.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited May 9
    Oops - Craig Overton injured.

    Bad news for Somerset and quite possibly England.

    Edit - not helping Hants though!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    felix said:

    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.

    Assume you mean 10pm exit poll - or do we really have to wait 12 hours to the morning for that too? (It will inevitably leak in that time anyway).
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    I think it’s a very courageous strategy.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895
    edited May 9
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.

    The Exit Poll would have to be embargoed, wouldn't it?
    Yes, good luck with that though, it'd leak in 10 minutes. I agree with Felix - when you've spent all day or indeed all month or all year on it, the last thing you want to do is go to bed! You want RESULTS!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,355
    edited May 9
    Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.

    Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.

    Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    ydoethur said:

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    I think it’s a very courageous strategy.
    Green surge
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.

    The Exit Poll would have to be embargoed, wouldn't it?
    And it would disrupt trading the next day
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,675
    I think LDs have just gone positive in councillor changes.

    After St Albans, they were up to -3 and they’re 4 up in Oxfordshire as it stands.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    Who started it - some reports say he sacked her - others say she and the left wing of the party have manufactured the fight?
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.

    The Exit Poll would have to be embargoed, wouldn't it?
    Oops - I meant 10pm!
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    What is a 'bold strategy Cotton'?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    It's an overnight stint one time in about every 1,500. Hardly a big issue.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,425
    edited May 9

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.

    The Exit Poll would have to be embargoed, wouldn't it?
    Yes, good luck with that though, it'd leak in 10 minutes. I agree with Felix - when you've spent all day or indeed all month or all year on it, the last thing you want to do is go to bed! You want RESULTS!
    I saw the 2017 exit poll at 930. It was dynamite. There is no way it could be kept quiet overnight.

    One way to do it would be to have the polls close at noon on the Friday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    felix said:

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    What is a 'bold strategy Cotton'?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HVejEB5uVk&ab_channel=DropsTheMike
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 964
    ydoethur said:

    Could work, but only if they made the Friday a bank holiday.

    However, that’s not the worst idea either. Make the Thursday and the Friday of a General Election a bank holiday weekend, and then the markets won’t panic every five minutes according to Twitter reports and the disengaged will be pleased it’s happening.

    I though that but the US dont seem to struggle......it took how many weeks for Trump to lose?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999

    felix said:

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    What is a 'bold strategy Cotton'?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HVejEB5uVk&ab_channel=DropsTheMike
    If you can dodge spanners then you can dodge a dodgeball.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,092
    Afternoon all :)

    A number of constituencies have always preferred to count "in the daylight". In 1997, I had worked in the St Ives ending up telling at Zennor at 9.30pm.

    I had been on first shift since 7am and was shattered. I missed all the overnight fun but went down to St John's Hall in Penzance for the count for the constituency (which includes the Scillies). It was a glorious day both politically and meteorologically but it wouldn't have been the same at 3am the night before.

    I have two comments - first, there would need to be adequate and proper security arrangements in place to ensure ballot boxes are unopened - this happens now with European election results as we know.

    Second, and I don't know if this would compromise the above - would it be possible to do some initial work on establishing turnout numbers for example (from the marked registers) or separate (if necessary) ballots for the GE from any local election contests occurring at the same time? Very often, (though not last time), a GE will coincide with a round of local elections and that can slow the process considerably.

    Counting national ballots on Friday and local ballots on Saturday seems eminently sensible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited May 9

    ydoethur said:

    Could work, but only if they made the Friday a bank holiday.

    However, that’s not the worst idea either. Make the Thursday and the Friday of a General Election a bank holiday weekend, and then the markets won’t panic every five minutes according to Twitter reports and the disengaged will be pleased it’s happening.

    I though that but the US dont seem to struggle......it took how many weeks for Trump to lose?
    None, but six months later he doesn’t seem to have come to terms with it.

    Edit - and I do seem to remember a fair amount of market volatility over Trump’s actions, although I will admit I wasn’t paying attention.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,214
    ... and have 650 mps not knowing whether they had won or lost.. I don't think do....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    felix said:

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    What is a 'bold strategy Cotton'?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HVejEB5uVk&ab_channel=DropsTheMike
    If you can dodge spanners then you can dodge a dodgeball.
    Gotta love Dodgeball. Gloriously silly as it is.....
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    That Starmer gets sidelined!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited May 9

    felix said:

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    What is a 'bold strategy Cotton'?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HVejEB5uVk&ab_channel=DropsTheMike
    If you can dodge spanners then you can dodge a dodgeball.
    Gotta love Dodgeball. Gloriously silly as it is.....
    Brian Rose = Patches O'Houllihan.

    'Necessary? Is it necessary for me to drink my own urine? No, but I do it anyway because it's sterile and I like the taste.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited May 9
    Rose Bowl commentators try a pun:

    ‘Organ is no Hammond.’

    (By which presumably they mean Miles Hammond, the Gloucestershire T20 opener.)

    I think it’s fair to say though that Hampshire have throughout this match batted if not like a Hammond, at least like a bunch of Wallies.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,425

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Where does it end? It will be just another battle in the never ending psychodrama that is internal Labour politics. Starmer would be better off trying to cultivate those on the left and right that are prepared to bury the hatchet and find a way to win.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    ydoethur said:

    Rose Bowl commentators try a pun:

    ‘Organ is no Hammond.’

    (By which presumably they mean Miles Hammond, the Gloucestershire T20 opener.)

    I think it’s fair to say though that Hampshire have throughout this match batted if not like a Hammond, at least like a bunch of Wallies.

    Yep, great start to the season now traditionally falling apart. Totally blaming you... Have you thought of starting a business? People pay for you to tip their rivals?
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Ridiculous that Spain still not jabbing at the w/e.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited May 9

    ydoethur said:

    Rose Bowl commentators try a pun:

    ‘Organ is no Hammond.’

    (By which presumably they mean Miles Hammond, the Gloucestershire T20 opener.)

    I think it’s fair to say though that Hampshire have throughout this match batted if not like a Hammond, at least like a bunch of Wallies.

    Yep, great start to the season now traditionally falling apart. Totally blaming you... Have you thought of starting a business? People pay for you to tip their rivals?
    Which uni department are you competing with for funding, and how much is it worth?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,092
    As someone might have sung in the 1960s.

    "Those were the elections that were, they're over, let 'em go"

    Not much chance on here.

    My first thought is trying to cast huge national generalisations on what were, especially in England, local contests, is going to be problematic at best.

    I commented on Scotland last night - in Wales. too, Labour have defied some of the expectations (hopes) on here and have survived to carry on governing (I think Charles Hawtrey wasn't in that one).

    As for England - the more you look at it, the more it defies generalisation and characterisation. There are many Englands, not only politically but culturally and socially. Boris Johnson speaks for some, perhaps many, of them but not all.

    The results show a patchwork of different political Englands - why did the Conservatives do so well in Kent and East Sussex but so poorly in Surrey? Why did the LDs do so badly in Cornwall?

    I presume the unsurprising answer is they were local elections and thus the opportunity for less than half the electorate to hold "the council" to account. Where the council was deemed to be performing well, the incumbent prospered, where they weren't, they didn't.

    That's one layer over which others can be placed because the results are multi-dimensional (as they often are).
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    That lots of young Labour voters and activists like the lefties, and wont vote or campaign for Starmer if he fights them.

    They may attract more Centrists from the LDs and Tories, but if Labour lose the Red Wall, the working class and the socialists, are they even Labour anymore?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,942
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rose Bowl commentators try a pun:

    ‘Organ is no Hammond.’

    (By which presumably they mean Miles Hammond, the Gloucestershire T20 opener.)

    I think it’s fair to say though that Hampshire have throughout this match batted if not like a Hammond, at least like a bunch of Wallies.

    Yep, great start to the season now traditionally falling apart. Totally blaming you... Have you thought of starting a business? People pay for you to tip their rivals?
    Which uni department are you competing with for funding, and how much is it worth?
    This is potentially an EXTREMELY lucrative opportunity for you :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rose Bowl commentators try a pun:

    ‘Organ is no Hammond.’

    (By which presumably they mean Miles Hammond, the Gloucestershire T20 opener.)

    I think it’s fair to say though that Hampshire have throughout this match batted if not like a Hammond, at least like a bunch of Wallies.

    Yep, great start to the season now traditionally falling apart. Totally blaming you... Have you thought of starting a business? People pay for you to tip their rivals?
    Which uni department are you competing with for funding, and how much is it worth?
    This is potentially an EXTREMELY lucrative opportunity for you :)
    Although cricket commentary is probably still the way to go.

    Even Nass can’t put the hex on them like I do.

    Imagine how much IPL franchises will pay me to praise their next opponents...
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Counter proposal. The betting companies take 0.01% of our stakes on political betting to create a cash prize for first result declared.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    For a moment I thought that the title of this thread was 'I agree with Sandy'.

    My pride was shortlived.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,675
    Tories currently down by six in Oxfordshire. Indies down one on last time. LDs up four, Greens up two, Lab up one.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.

    Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.

    Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.

    The thing is, 99 times out of 100, without all that frantic ground game activity the result would be exactly the same.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,355
    edited May 9

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.

    Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.

    Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.

    The thing is, 99 times out of 100, without all that frantic ground game activity the result would be exactly the same.
    Of course. I always said that election campaigning was remarkable for having such a huge ratio of effort to outcome. It did make a difference - I have enough anecdotes to prove that - but each person helping probably only shifted the result by a handful of votes. Trouble is, under our voting system, a handful of votes can be all the difference.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    felix said:

    Ridiculous that Spain still not jabbing at the w/e.
    Depends. As long as production and supply are the bottleneck, if you can do the jabs in five days you won't go any faster by spreading them over seven.

    And although Euro production has accelerated, that's still the rate limiting step.

    Having said that, France is trying a new wheeze- I think starting this week. Although the main booking is still age-restricted (55+ plus, or younger people with risk factors) they're introducing a kind of lastminute.com facility where anyone can book slots that are still available the night before.

    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1390239205511606274?s=19
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    Bottas is a twat, Toto Wolff should sack him at the end of the race.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rose Bowl commentators try a pun:

    ‘Organ is no Hammond.’

    (By which presumably they mean Miles Hammond, the Gloucestershire T20 opener.)

    I think it’s fair to say though that Hampshire have throughout this match batted if not like a Hammond, at least like a bunch of Wallies.

    Yep, great start to the season now traditionally falling apart. Totally blaming you... Have you thought of starting a business? People pay for you to tip their rivals?
    Which uni department are you competing with for funding, and how much is it worth?
    Chemistry mainly, but I’ve kinda got a foot in their camp too, so might be counterproductive...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    "Ohhhh Je-rem-y Cooooorbyn"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310

    Bottas is a twat, Toto Wolff should sack him at the end of the race.

    Yup, completey unnecessary to fight Lewis, could have taken both of them out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    Almost 180k first doses registered in today's numbers I think! Very good first doses and hopefully the start of a first dose surge over the next 6-8 weeks to get the programme done.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,306

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    The Greens are making gains in the sort of places the LibDems would have done prior to 2010.

    The one remaining area of LibDem strength is among posh remainers.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,092
    My own "manor" (as we don't say) was enlightening as it always is.

    If there are many Englands, there are many Londons. Sadiq won though a ringing endorsement it was not. As long as you appreciate how little actual power the Mayor has, expecting bold and radical accomplishments is always going to leave you disappointed.

    The Mayor is a high-profile low-responsibility post which suits a certain type of politician (the extrovert populist) but if you think you're going to change people's lives, you're in the wrong job.

    Oddly enough, even though it hasn't happened yet, I think it's easier for a Mayor to be elected (you're different to the incumbent) than to be re-elected (everyone knows who you are and what you haven't done).

    Bailey could call on the core Conservative vote in London (around 30% at higher turnout elections) and with turnout down four points, it got him to a respectable number (though not much different from Goldsmith in 2016).

    With more "opportunity" to protest and less desire to go out and vote, Khan's vote peeled away at the margins so he ended up with just 40%. It's worth noting the Greens won the second preferences overall but Khan was always going to get more "seconds" than Bailey and in the end he won comfortably.

    The Greens did okay - the LD performance was disastrous and there are questions for both parties going forward.

    Perhaps the most revealing aspect was the strong Conservative performance in hitherto weak areas. As I noted with the East Ham Central by-election, the Conservative vote was well up. In that contest, the Labour vote fell from 2,775 to 2,297 but the Conservative vote jumped from 470 to 1,288 as the turnout rose to the mid-40s.

    Looking ahead to next year, we have the London locals. The lack of change across the GLA suggests no particular political earthquake. Barnet looks safe for the Conservatives based on the East Barnet by-election and Richmond looks secure for the LDs. I'd be less confident about Kingston for the LDs but we'll see.

    Of course, national political events may provide a different climate than the one we are currently experiencing but Labour are defending 1,100 seats and the Conservatives only 500 so the "expectation management" may be an interesting game.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,092

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    Yes, LDs take control of St Albans (which will please Daisy) and I suppose LDs 565, Greens 138 is a mere detail. Probably not worth mentioning Independents +35 to 248 either.

    Plenty of Conservative seats to capture in 2024 and 2025 on these numbers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited May 9

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    The Greens are making gains in the sort of places the LibDems would have done prior to 2010.

    The one remaining area of LibDem strength is among posh remainers.
    Hence LD gains in the posher parts of Oxfordshire in the county council elections this afternoon
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    Awful idea - you get the exit pool boom at 10am and you then wait however long to see if it's right! No way.

    The Exit Poll would have to be embargoed, wouldn't it?
    Yes, good luck with that though, it'd leak in 10 minutes. I agree with Felix - when you've spent all day or indeed all month or all year on it, the last thing you want to do is go to bed! You want RESULTS!
    Though weekend polling so we could have 2 days to vote, and close the poll at 1800, results the same evening would be nice.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868

    felix said:

    It seems that Starmer has decided to have a very loud and public argument with the left, Kinnock-style.

    It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it pays off for him

    What is a 'bold strategy Cotton'?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HVejEB5uVk&ab_channel=DropsTheMike
    If you can dodge spanners then you can dodge a dodgeball.
    Actually, it's:

    "If you can dodge a WRENCH, you can dodge a ball!"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Jolyon Palmer: ‘He’s driven the wheels off that car.’

    Ummmmm...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868
    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    edited May 9
    Pagan2 said:

    The difficulties though are far from being merely economic. They are cultural. How would you feel for example after throwing our borders open if we had a massive influx of sub saharan black christians and muslims, say for the sake of argument 15 million or so.....enough to shift the voting balance. Then with their voting power they start voting for a repeal of gay marriage. They are after all not known for their liberal views on homosexuality.

    I did refer to the economic "and social" benefits/costs. And I'd be none too keen on 15m sub saharan christians and muslims coming over here and turning the clock back on LGBT rights. But (as per various posts on PT) I'm not arguing for the free movement of people between all countries, or for any of this to happen next week. I described the notion as utopian because it is. So is ending global poverty. So is peace on earth. Doesn't mean they aren't meaningful aspirations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
  • Old_HandOld_Hand Posts: 34
    The Law presently requires Parliamentary counts to start within four hours of the close of the poll. I was told that sitting MPs want the shortest possible period between dissolution and re-election to minimise the period for which they do not draw their parliamentary salary. As an Agent for both the County and PCC elections, I am today recovering from three days of intense activity and scarcely have the energy to complete this post!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    ydoethur said:

    Could work, but only if they made the Friday a bank holiday.

    However, that’s not the worst idea either. Make the Thursday and the Friday of a General Election a bank holiday weekend, and then the markets won’t panic every five minutes according to Twitter reports and the disengaged will be pleased it’s happening.

    But is NOT semi-informed hysterical speculation part of the warp and woof of capitalism - the Hidden Hand as it were?

    How dare you tamper with the handiwork of the Almighty Market! AND blaspheme against the memory of Adam Smith!

    And you call your self whatever you call yourself!!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,442
    ydoethur said:

    Jolyon Palmer: ‘He’s driven the wheels off that car.’

    Ummmmm...

    Really great race that - Hamilton (and Mercedes strategy) superb
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,092
    Old_Hand said:

    The Law presently requires Parliamentary counts to start within four hours of the close of the poll. I was told that sitting MPs want the shortest possible period between dissolution and re-election to minimise the period for which they do not draw their parliamentary salary. As an Agent for both the County and PCC elections, I am today recovering from three days of intense activity and scarcely have the energy to complete this post!

    It doesn't though require the count to be completed by any particular time and I'm pretty sure the ballot boxes from the Isles of Scilly aren't flown over to the mainland until the morning.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Oh, so you are just going to ignore pro indy Labour and LibDem voters then?

    Such great analysis. Insightful.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    ydoethur said:

    Could work, but only if they made the Friday a bank holiday.

    However, that’s not the worst idea either. Make the Thursday and the Friday of a General Election a bank holiday weekend, and then the markets won’t panic every five minutes according to Twitter reports and the disengaged will be pleased it’s happening.

    But is NOT semi-informed hysterical speculation part of the warp and woof of capitalism - the Hidden Hand as it were?

    How dare you tamper with the handiwork of the Almighty Market! AND blaspheme against the memory of Adam Smith!

    And you call your self whatever you call yourself!!
    I don’t think I can Trump that outburst :smile:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    Lewis showing why he's the GOAT.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    MaxPB said:

    Lewis showing why he's the GOAT.

    Butt he would have been no match for Jim Clarke.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    The world has changed somewhat since 2014?

    And I have to ask what are you running scared of? I personally want the referendum done so the Scots are told the truth and can face reality
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,035
    HYUFD said:

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    The Greens are making gains in the sort of places the LibDems would have done prior to 2010.

    The one remaining area of LibDem strength is among posh remainers.
    Hence LD gains in the posher parts of Oxfordshire in the county council elections this afternoon
    Like Liverpool and Hull.?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Nope. Yes, it's a long day and everyone's tired but they're also pumped on adrenaline and desperate to know.

    Waiting is the worst.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,486
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Oh, so you are just going to ignore pro indy Labour and LibDem voters then?

    Such great analysis. Insightful.
    He's ignoring the ACTUAL VOTES CAST and making it up.

    Because he's a petulant pillock.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    A meaningless shibboleth,'generation'.

    You might as well invoke the monster under the bed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Notice the laugh as Sturgeon mutters “fiscal transfer” to herself before launching into an answer so vacuous that it immediately collapses.

    First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”

    And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Also agree with Shadsy on counting ballots starting the morning after the election ESPECIALLY when the polls close late in the evening AND counting is done by hand.

    AND below are some thoughts I posted yesterday after most PBers had taken to the beds - some after doing excellent impersonations of mid-20th century Labour MP and cabinet minister GEORGE BROWN when he was particularly "tired and emotional" (see below after my screed)

    Re: election management & observation, Cookie said something to the effect that, when he observed an election, things appeared to him quite well organized.

    Indeed, that is generally the impression that most people come to - often to their surprise - when the actually observe an actual election being counted.

    Have seen & heard it MANY times, at many elections in many places.

    Folks come down to election central (wherever it is) with all kinds of concerns, opinions, criticisms. Then after they've been there a while, had the process(es) explained, asked questions and observed the work AND the workers, they come away rather impressed. AND with some appreciation of the requirements, complexities and challenges involved in conducting a free and fair election.

    That's been my personal experience over 30 years plus, from Seattle to Dublin & back.

    And, in case you can't tell, I have a TREMENDOUS respect for election workers. Who are some of the hardest working, most conscientious and dedicated people I've ever met. Ditto patriot. Also frank and forthright, in an line of work where "gotcha!" is always a possibility.

    And were a politically-motivated mob can materialize, of whatever persuasion is behind in a very or even somewhat close election. Especially when the world is calling, crying, DEMANDING results half an hour ago, regardless of how many ballots or how many issues (like the COVID for instance) may crop up during the election and/or the count.

    For example, if you're the Secretary of State of Georgia! One year, the opposition party is calling you a fraudster; the next, your OWN party's calling you a fraud AND a traitor.

    And some people think it's all as easy as falling off a log.

    BBC Rewind: Robin Day v George Brown
    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-29932208
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,355

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Oh, so you are just going to ignore pro indy Labour and LibDem voters then?

    Such great analysis. Insightful.
    He's ignoring the ACTUAL VOTES CAST and making it up.

    Because he's a petulant pillock.
    Because he always works backwards from the answer he first thought of.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,092
    To change the mood a little (I've not been posing in the pub garden).

    My weekly look at how Newham is doing in the Covid vaccination programme.

    Among all those over 50, 62,490 have received a first dose and of those 22,637 have had a second dose. Total estimated population over 50 in Newham is 88,187 so that means 70.9% have had a first vaccination and 25.6% have had both leaving more than 25,000 people over 50 with no protection at all.

    Among those aged over 70, 14,241 have received a first vaccination and of those 11,521 have received a second vaccination. Total estimated population over 70 in Newham is 17,785 so that means 81% have received a first vaccination and 64.8% have received both vaccinations. That also means there are 3,500 people over 70 in Newham who have no virus protection.

    These figures don't concern me inasmuch as both Mrs Stodge and I will be having our second vaccinations before long but it reminds me just how many people the vaccination rollout programme hasn't reached in my part of the world.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    A meaningless shibboleth,'generation'.
    The SNP government's words, nobody else's....

    But then in fairness "Scotland's Future was packed chock full of meaningless shibboleths

  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,103
    On topic - I agree. While there is some fun to the evening running into the night and then the morning, realistically, very few people care enough to sacrifice a night's sleep for the whole palaver. It would be just as much fun the next day and we wouldn't all feel groggy.

    Off topic, will this be the first day this year on which no new cover deaths are announced? I predict it will. Although at the levels we're at it's all noise anyway, with notifications and denotifications cancelling each other out starting to outweigh actual real data.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    If you are so confident of winning, why not call Nicola's bluff?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    A meaningless shibboleth,'generation'.
    The SNP government's words, nobody else's....

    But then in fairness "Scotland's Future was packed chock full of meaningless shibboleths

    Not the government. Obiter dicta in interviews.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    FPT - however you cut it Scottish public opinion on a new independence referendum seems almost exactly 50:50 to me.

    Which means how each side proceeds from now is a matter of tactics.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    stodge said:

    To change the mood a little (I've not been posing in the pub garden).

    My weekly look at how Newham is doing in the Covid vaccination programme.

    Among all those over 50, 62,490 have received a first dose and of those 22,637 have had a second dose. Total estimated population over 50 in Newham is 88,187 so that means 70.9% have had a first vaccination and 25.6% have had both leaving more than 25,000 people over 50 with no protection at all.

    Among those aged over 70, 14,241 have received a first vaccination and of those 11,521 have received a second vaccination. Total estimated population over 70 in Newham is 17,785 so that means 81% have received a first vaccination and 64.8% have received both vaccinations. That also means there are 3,500 people over 70 in Newham who have no virus protection.

    These figures don't concern me inasmuch as both Mrs Stodge and I will be having our second vaccinations before long but it reminds me just how many people the vaccination rollout programme hasn't reached in my part of the world.

    Please stop posting these lies. These people - assuming they exist - are choosing not to get vaccinated.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868
    Election Nights wouldn't be Election Nights if they start at 9am!
This discussion has been closed.