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I agree with Shadsy – politicalbetting.com

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  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    Notice the laugh as Sturgeon mutters “fiscal transfer” to herself before launching into an answer so vacuous that it immediately collapses.

    First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”

    And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20

    It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster

    Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Oh, so you are just going to ignore pro indy Labour and LibDem voters then?

    Such great analysis. Insightful.
    He's ignoring the ACTUAL VOTES CAST and making it up.

    Because he's a petulant pillock.
    Because he always works backwards from the answer he first thought of.
    He posts some interesting stuff from opinion polls. He is entitled to his strong views about a 2nd referendum. He is entertaining when he says "we Tories" as he contradicts the leader of the Scottish Tories on what "we Tories" think about Scotland.

    Then he does this. He doesn't want a referendum. Cannot accept the result of Thursday's election. So just makes it up. The result apparently isn't the result. An opinion poll is a more reliable indicator than the Scottish General Election we have just had - not that he even credits the actual results of that.

    So I'm afraid I don't have anything left but mockery.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Whoa - we're all active participants in democracy!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,383
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    Why haven't you mentioned that before? If you had, I'm sure everybody on here would have been persuaded.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    "ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? IS THIS NOT WHY YOU ARE HERE?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Why not both?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .

    There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.



  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    nico679 said:

    The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .

    There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.



    If they win another referendum? I must have missed the first one. ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Does look like the UK govt has benefitted somewhat from the declaration timetable this weekend - results in local and other elections declaring late Saturday/Sunday look worse for Cons than those declaring on Friday/early Saturday.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1391409161234173958?s=20
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    nico679 said:

    The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .

    There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.



    I think that’s optimistic ultimately. We’ve seen how rigid the EU are with rules, and they’d have the integrity of the single market to protect between the border of Scotland and England.

    Lots of SNP supporters seem to be hoping - being blimey optimistic - that the EU will want a newly succeeded state, with little financial track record, back within the club. It is a huge risk - and the EU doesn’t do risk well
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .

    There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.



    If they win another referendum? I must have missed the first one. ;)
    Don’t be silly you know what I mean ! By the way Happy Europe Day !
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The number of people who've had both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine in the United Kingdom as of yesterday is

    *17,669,379*

    (up 438,837 on the day before, 7-day average 334,252)
    That is 26.5% of the total population


    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1391409353719177222?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Congratulations Jack Leach.

    With that request for LBW when all three stumps were showing, you moved past Rudy Giuliani into first place for the greatest number of ridiculous and unconvincing appeals ever.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The Conservative leader of Worthing Borough Council - who had his party’s majority slashed to one- has called on the government to “look now at the South East” after a net loss of seats in the region. https://twitter.com/shelleylphelps/status/1391399087682080769/photo/1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Notice the laugh as Sturgeon mutters “fiscal transfer” to herself before launching into an answer so vacuous that it immediately collapses.

    First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”

    And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20

    It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster

    Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
    Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".

    Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,872

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Then why are you Tory Boys so scared of another referendum?
    2014 was once in a generation
    The world has changed somewhat since 2014?

    And I have to ask what are you running scared of? I personally want the referendum done so the Scots are told the truth and can face reality
    HYUFD frit? Fiddlesticks!

    Have you NOT heard about his inspirational & aspirational (also asperational) leadership in the death struggle against the sinister forces of disunion. On both land AND sea?

    With the result that the invading flotilla of foppish, feckless Froggy fisherfolk were forced to flee in fear & folly from Her Majesty's foaming shores!

    AND to the north, the traitorous, treasonous Jocks were pushed back from the brink of succeeding to sever the unbreakable umbilical cord of Union!!

    To paraphrase, until this moment, I think I never really gauged your cruelty or your recklessness. Let us not assassinate this lad further, PBers. You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency???
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    QTWTAIN.
    Clutching at straws.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    The Greens are making gains in the sort of places the LibDems would have done prior to 2010.

    The one remaining area of LibDem strength is among posh remainers.
    Hence LD gains in the posher parts of Oxfordshire in the county council elections this afternoon
    Like Liverpool and Hull.?
    And Sunderland
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    QTWTAIN.
    Clutching at straws.
    So what? It may not be the 'real story' but it's certainly an interesting development, although predicted by many.

    I don't think it will have any significant impact mind.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    An emphatic no from former Labour activist and BBC journalist Lewis Goodall.

    Doesn’t mean it won’t come but it’s not there at the moment.

    Oxfordshire is no surprise and, from what I’ve read, is largely local,issues not national. Same as Durham. Team Starmer are not to blame here.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    Lol, the desperation...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited May 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    No, because it hasn’t collapsed although a few cracks have appeared that the leadership would do well to heed.

    They won’t, because they’re drunk with success in the North, and of course they’re very stupid, but they should.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Foxy said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    The Greens are making gains in the sort of places the LibDems would have done prior to 2010.

    The one remaining area of LibDem strength is among posh remainers.
    Hence LD gains in the posher parts of Oxfordshire in the county council elections this afternoon
    Like Liverpool and Hull.?
    And Sunderland
    Lib Dem team gained in Sunderland due to good old fashioned local campaigning.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    No, because it hasn’t collapsed although a few cracks have appeared that the leadership would do well to heed.

    They won’t, because they’re drunk with success in the North, and of course they’re very stupid, but they should.
    Well this will be the challenge for the Tories going forward — keeping together their election winning coalition. Labour managed it for 13 years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
    I'd sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision for 80k a year to be honest
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    "ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? IS THIS NOT WHY YOU ARE HERE?"
    On Sunday afternoon.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    edited May 2021


    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    Not yet, that's for sure. And maybe never, in sufficient numbers. And there's the enduring FPTP problem of split opposition to the Conservatives. But a coalition of Teeside and Thames needs a lot of charisma to hold together.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    edited May 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    The old Blue Wall has had rather more of a normal mid-term set of results. Still very, very good considering they were coming off exceptionally good results from Theresa May's 2017 effort, where the Conservatives gained 563 seats. There really was only one way to go from there. Yet the LibDems haven't advanced at all, with Greens and Independents carrying off the prizes. Labour has continued its woeful efforts - considering it was down 382 councillors in 2017 as well.

    But net since 2016/2017, a mid term Government has still added over 200 more seats. So no, it isn't exactly a Boris-led disaster, is it now? Much as you might wish it to be.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Fenman said:

    HYUFD said:

    LibDems showing +1 seats.

    Greens +81.

    The Greens are making gains in the sort of places the LibDems would have done prior to 2010.

    The one remaining area of LibDem strength is among posh remainers.
    Hence LD gains in the posher parts of Oxfordshire in the county council elections this afternoon
    Like Liverpool and Hull.?
    And Sunderland
    Lib Dem team gained in Sunderland due to good old fashioned local campaigning.
    That's as maybe. Not prosperous Remania nevertheless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
    Some schools still require you to stay while they decide who to offer the job to, albeit not many of them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    The old Blue Wall has had rather more of a normal mid-term set of results. Still very, very good considering they were coming off exceptionally good results from Theresa May's 2017 effort, where the Conservatives gained 563 seats. There really was only one way to go from there. Yet the LibDems haven't advanced at all, with Greens and Independents carrying off the prizes. Labour has continued its woeful efforts - considering it was down 382 councillors in 2017 as well.

    But net since 2016/2017, a mid term Government has still added over 200 more seats. So no, it isn't exactly a Boris-led disaster, is it now? Much as you might wish it to be.
    I don't think Scott is calling it a Boris-led disaster. He's merely pointing out a subtext that may be important in the coming years. You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
    It is custom at medical interviews to ask the candidates to wait, and to call in the successful candidate after the panel is decided, and they get the job offer there and then, subject to references and occupational health clearance.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited May 2021
    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    The replies to that Tweet tell you just how f***** Labour are. Totally deluded.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    The old Blue Wall has had rather more of a normal mid-term set of results. Still very, very good considering they were coming off exceptionally good results from Theresa May's 2017 effort, where the Conservatives gained 563 seats. There really was only one way to go from there. Yet the LibDems haven't advanced at all, with Greens and Independents carrying off the prizes. Labour has continued its woeful efforts - considering it was down 382 councillors in 2017 as well.

    But net since 2016/2017, a mid term Government has still added over 200 more seats. So no, it isn't exactly a Boris-led disaster, is it now? Much as you might wish it to be.
    I don't think Scott is calling it a Boris-led disaster. He's merely pointing out a subtext that may be important in the coming years. You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.
    Oh, I know exactly what argument he was making!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    @Morris_Dancer

    Thanks for the tip this morning MD. Nice pick up.

    The power of PB.com strikes again.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    Another German poll with the Greens as largest party.

    Germany, Kantar poll:

    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 26% (-1)
    CDU/CSU-EPP: 23% (-1)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (+1)
    FDP-RE: 12% (+1)
    AfD-ID: 10%
    LINKE-LEFT: 7%

    +/- vs. 22-28 April 2021

    Fieldwork: 29 April - 5 May 2021
    Sample size: 1,910

    https://t.co/bbexiPyox9 pic.twitter.com/YJJfvarISb

    — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 9, 2021
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
    Do you want the job or not?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Milestone on the covid deaths - drop below 10/day on average. (Only 2 reported today).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Asked this yesterday, not sure anyone knows the answer -

    How many PBers on here are elected officials somewhere? Esp. whom were elected at Thursday's election?

    Yours truly is an elected official of the great State of WA, having been elected by my grateful, admiring neighbors (or was it the other way around) to the exalted post of Precinct Committee Officer (PCO) of the Democratic Party.

    Put THAT in yer pipe and smoke it, JohnO!

    As a matter of fact, the voters were spared the necessity of actually having to vote for me (or the indignity of seeing my name on their personal ballot) because, under WA state law, candidates for PCO of either major party who are unopposed are automatically elected.

    OK, besides my own good (?) self, we've got JohnO, HYUFD and IanB2 on the list to be PB Privy Councillors.

    Along I think with Nick P xMP in line with standard, ancient practices for HM's PC. Any other former elected out there?

    Believe Rochdale qualifies on that score. Indeed, he posted yesterday that he's been requested by a political opponent to depart his (former) jurisdiction and NOT return. Twas England's loss and Scotland's gain! Or was it visa versa?

    Regardless of crime of creed, congratulation to ALL our PB electeds!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
    Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803

    nico679 said:

    The EU have a difficult balancing act if and when another Scottish Indy ref campaign begins . They can’t be see to be promoting the break up of the UK , on the other hand they don’t want to be seen to be putting obstacles in the way of Scotland re-joining .

    There’s a lot of enthusiasm amongst MEPs for welcoming Scotland . I’ve no doubt that if the SNP win another referendum Scotland will be fast tracked.



    I think that’s optimistic ultimately. We’ve seen how rigid the EU are with rules, and they’d have the integrity of the single market to protect between the border of Scotland and England.

    Lots of SNP supporters seem to be hoping - being blimey optimistic - that the EU will want a newly succeeded state, with little financial track record, back within the club. It is a huge risk - and the EU doesn’t do risk well
    They took on far dodgier states in Eastern Europe. Financial risk is a secondary consideration to expanding the empire. And they'll see it as a Brexit victory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited May 2021

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
    Do you want the job or not?
    Increasingly, people of talent are saying not.

    Or, at least, so I assume given how many muppets there are in Parliament.

    Edit - actually, that’s unfair, I’d take Kermit ahead of Rees Mogg or Burgon.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Foss said:

    Another German poll with the Greens as largest party.

    Germany, Kantar poll:

    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 26% (-1)
    CDU/CSU-EPP: 23% (-1)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (+1)
    FDP-RE: 12% (+1)
    AfD-ID: 10%
    LINKE-LEFT: 7%

    +/- vs. 22-28 April 2021

    Fieldwork: 29 April - 5 May 2021
    Sample size: 1,910

    https://t.co/bbexiPyox9 pic.twitter.com/YJJfvarISb

    — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 9, 2021
    The combined AfD and Linke vote of 17% would be down 5 points on 2017, which obviously helps in terms of coalition building.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm sure Nicola's thrilled:


    The Nationalists only got 49% combined on the constituency vote which Alba ignored there.

    Once you take account of the fact that the Greens got 34,990 votes on the constituency vote and most Scottish Green constituency voters oppose independence now as the below links shows, then even on total vote figures there was no pro independence majority

    https://archive.ph/eg2lt
    Oh, so you are just going to ignore pro indy Labour and LibDem voters then?

    Such great analysis. Insightful.
    He's ignoring the ACTUAL VOTES CAST and making it up.

    Because he's a petulant pillock.
    I have just logged on and amazed to read the continuation of a disagreement about a few thousand votes

    Most everyone agrees it is 50/50

    Time to move on
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,872

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
    I'd sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision for 80k a year to be honest
    Me too and my first proper job they expected us to stay overnight in the area while they decided which of the 12 of us would be selected for the second interview the following day.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also on topic. Absolutely not. The 10pm start of vote counting is one of the best features of our general election. It can be really thrilling, such as 2015 and 2019 in recent history. 2010 was good as well becuase it was finally and end to Labour.

    So elections should be organised for the benefit of spectators rather than active participants?
    Well yes, because democracy needs to take into account PR too. The more interested people are in the spectacle, the more likely they are to take part.
    Elections are basically job interviews....job interviews are arranged as the employer want them not as the candidate wants them. The electorate is the employer here
    Most job interviews, you’re allowed to go home and wait for the email, phone call or letter in the post. I am not aware of any companies that require interviewees to sleep in the lobby while the employer sorts out its decision?
    Do you want the job or not?
    Also the quicker everywhere counts, the quicker everyone can sleep. If Tyneside and Wearside can count within a few hours, there's no reason why everywhere else, other than the distant Scottish islands, can count in double that time, even accounting for increased travelling time.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    edited May 2021
    Great numbers today: 1770/2/101.

    Only 2 deaths (14 last Sunday).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Stocky, np.

    First green tip of the season, alarmingly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
    Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament the Labour Party.
    Fixed that for you.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.

    That's never, ever happened on PB before...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Labour’s Tracy Brabin on course to win which means *another by-election* in Batley and Spen (Labour majority: 3,525). https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1391408871932141574
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    tlg86 said:

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
    Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament the Labour Party.
    Fixed that for you.
    I know you're trying to be funny, but whether you like it or not, an elected position within the Labour Party is a senior position within the UK Parliamentary system.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    The Conservatives would have a reduced majority at Westminster if voting patterns in the local elections were replicated nationally, Sky News analysis suggests https://trib.al/mROHFkV
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Notice the laugh as Sturgeon mutters “fiscal transfer” to herself before launching into an answer so vacuous that it immediately collapses.

    First: “the fiscal transfer doesn’t exist”

    And then: “even if it does exist, why should we want it”


    https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1391400406480302082?s=20

    It is definitely one of the SNPs weaker arguments. Though they do seem to being doing a Malc and denying any deficit would exist between tax intake and spending per head. Just blame Westminster

    Probably why in the end better for them to give it a go by themselves
    Niall Fergusson, who hasn't lived in Scotland for years on one podcast remarked that perhaps the best solution was for the Scots to try independence, observing that before the Union Scotland was basically "the Afghanistan of Europe".

    Perhaps Nicola would like full fiscal autonomy to demonstrate what a superior job she could do?
    Because England in the 1600s was all peace and tranquility. Fuck me that's so historically illiterate I'd expect it to come from Neil Oliver.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tories in trouble in rural Oxfordshire, Surrey, Sussex, Cambridgeshire, Kent. Isn't the real story of this election the collapse of the old Blue Wall?
    https://twitter.com/StephenMossGdn/status/1391383763050016770

    An emphatic no from former Labour activist and BBC journalist Lewis Goodall.

    Doesn’t mean it won’t come but it’s not there at the moment.

    Oxfordshire is no surprise and, from what I’ve read, is largely local,issues not national. Same as Durham. Team Starmer are not to blame here.
    I'm not aware of any local issues here in Oxfordshire outside of the Tories being generally unpopular relative to normal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Scott_xP said:

    The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    The Conservatives would have a reduced majority at Westminster if voting patterns in the local elections were replicated nationally, Sky News analysis suggests https://trib.al/mROHFkV
    Down only 16 seats. That's not bad.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Scott_xP said:

    You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.

    That's never, ever happened on PB before...
    Admit you weren't trying to piss on Boris' chips. I dare you....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Foxy said:

    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.

    I think that the collapse of the Home Counties blue ring is some way off, but these results could be a straw in the wind. Taking voters for granted because they cannot go anywhere else is what got Labour into this mess.
    At some point the bill is going to come in for Johnson's English Nationalist Spendthrift Party and the Home Counties wont want to pay.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Foxy said:

    I think that the collapse of the Home Counties blue ring is some way off, but these results could be a straw in the wind. Taking voters for granted because they cannot go anywhere else is what got Labour into this mess.

    The fanbois rapid rebuttal team reaction is revealing
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited May 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour’s Tracy Brabin on course to win which means *another by-election* in Batley and Spen (Labour majority: 3,525). https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1391408871932141574

    Yep - and a Byelection that Labour currently can't win - I wonder if they could run it the same day as Chesham and Amersham
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
    Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament.
    .perhaps that is part of Labours problem. She is hopeless.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Scott_xP said:

    You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.

    That's never, ever happened on PB before...
    Admit you weren't trying to piss on Boris' chips. I dare you....
    So what if he was trying to piss on Boris's chips? That's what people opposed to the Government are supposed to do.

    If you're so secure in your position, it should simply wash over you.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
    Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament.
    .perhaps that is part of Labours problem. She is hopeless.
    I haven't seen enough of her to really form an opinion but she must be good at SOMETHING to get where she is, even if it's just playing the Labour Party internal game.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    The Conservatives would have a reduced majority at Westminster if voting patterns in the local elections were replicated nationally, Sky News analysis suggests https://trib.al/mROHFkV
    Down only 16 seats. That's not bad.
    But they aren't and won't be so whats the point in the comparison? The reality is that Labour took a pasting. End of.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited May 2021

    tlg86 said:

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    She's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...
    I know , I can't fathom what is so special about her. To me she is completely vacuous.
    Well she's an example of British meritocracy — from teenage pregnancy on a council estate to a fairly senior position within Parliament the Labour Party.
    Fixed that for you.
    I know you're trying to be funny, but whether you like it or not, an elected position within the Labour Party is a senior position within the UK Parliamentary system.
    I think if she was LotO - which, I think, gets a salary from the tax-payer - then I'd agree with you.

    I appreciate that it's splitting hairs to a certain extent, but there's a bit of me that thinks Labour's biggest problem is its MPs. The Tories aren't anything special, but they look brilliant compared with the likes of Rayner.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    35s
    Labour reshuffle still expected to go ahead today. Not imminently, however.

    Sources say Starmer has to decide Rayner’s role before anything else.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I'm a bit bemused how a fight with the lefties of Burgon and co could be perceived as anything but a net positive for Starmer, the quicker they're all sidelined the quicker the public will see Labour has changed.

    What am I missing

    Rayner, Nandy and Burnham are not ‘left.’ The entirety of the PLP last night were reported to be gobsmacked by Starmer’s decision to sack Rayner. The PLP are nowhere near ‘the left’, which is why there so much tension between the PLP and Corbyn when he was leader.

    Starmer in the long term didn’t even benefit from going up against the Corbynite left last year. He will definitely not win a battle when most his own party, even most liberal/centre left journalists, combined with the right wing press are not backing him.
    I have no idea why Rayner is even mentioned. What is so special about her ?
    Didn't Rayner once offer to share her train compartment with Sunil?

    Though being a shy lad - and wanting to focus on counting the number of sleepers from Bootle to Bognor (or was it Bolsover?) he politely told her to keep her carriage to herself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.

    Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.

    Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.

    Public service is tough.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour’s Tracy Brabin on course to win which means *another by-election* in Batley and Spen (Labour majority: 3,525). https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1391408871932141574

    Yep - and a Byelection that Labour currently can't win - I wonder if they could run it the same day as Chesham and Amersham
    Can't Tracy Brabin duel mandate until an opportune moment? If Labour are truly serious about power, they will make changes and use the by-election as a springboard with a properly-vetted and appropriate candidate with a proper platform.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Organ completes a Dentury, for a grand total off five runs.

    Pulling out all the stops here to stave off the inevitable defeat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour’s Tracy Brabin on course to win which means *another by-election* in Batley and Spen (Labour majority: 3,525). https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1391408871932141574

    Yep - and a Byelection that Labour currently can't win - I wonder if they could run it the same day as Chesham and Amersham
    Hasn't Jarvis become a mayor and kept his seat?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Scott_xP said:

    You're attacking an argument you are pretending he's made, rather than one he's actually made.

    That's never, ever happened on PB before...
    Admit you weren't trying to piss on Boris' chips. I dare you....
    Is THAT another great British culinary specialty? Piss & chips!

    Why is yours truly NOT surprised?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Does look like the UK govt has benefitted somewhat from the declaration timetable this weekend - results in local and other elections declaring late Saturday/Sunday look worse for Cons than those declaring on Friday/early Saturday.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1391409161234173958?s=20

    Maybe, but you can only choreograph a shit sandwich for Labour so much.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Stephen Bush
    @stephenkb
    ·
    9m
    Buckle up, the by-election circus is coming to Yorkshire!
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour’s Tracy Brabin on course to win which means *another by-election* in Batley and Spen (Labour majority: 3,525). https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1391408871932141574

    Yep - and a Byelection that Labour currently can't win - I wonder if they could run it the same day as Chesham and Amersham
    Hasn't Jarvis become a mayor and kept his seat?
    Yes
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    35s
    Labour reshuffle still expected to go ahead today. Not imminently, however.

    Sources say Starmer has to decide Rayner’s role before anything else.

    This is even worse.

    Makes him look weak.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    That's not a bad result really
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Hasn't Jarvis become a mayor and kept his seat?

    She will also be PCC, which is the problem.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, the people who would really benefit are the candidates and activists.

    Polling day for me in London meant getting up at 5 am for an early morning delivery run which I’d start from 5.30, finish by 7.00 so I could leap in the car and make sure all the first tellers were in position (or alternatively do the first hour at one of them myself), then back to the committee room to set things up, make sure everything was under control and that people knew what they were doing. Time to snatch something for breakfast, then it was pretty much non stop rushing around, a mix of door knocking, delivery, organising and crisis management, through to close of poll at 10pm. The only bits of rest were spells of telling, when as the candidate you had to be smiling and chatting to those people who wanted to talk or ask questions on the way out.

    Then a quick shower and change of clothes and it was off to the count. Usually the declarations wouldn’t come through until 3.00 or 4.00 am; by the time I got back from the count it was after a solid 24 hours of activity and exhaustion beckoned, although it was hard to get to sleep without checking the internet to see how friends and colleagues in other patches had done, and to catch the general news. It was incredibly tough.

    Public service is tough.
    Thought you said public service is trough!

    Are you by any chance a member of the House of Lords?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    35s
    Labour reshuffle still expected to go ahead today. Not imminently, however.

    Sources say Starmer has to decide Rayner’s role before anything else.

    This is even worse.

    Makes him look weak.
    He needs to control the 'sources' leaking...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    FPT - however you cut it Scottish public opinion on a new independence referendum seems almost exactly 50:50 to me.

    Which means how each side proceeds from now is a matter of tactics.

    This is exactly right. In addition there is too much attachment to Scottish numbers anyway. There is another critical consideration, now that Ref1 has occurred.

    The matter of referenda is for Westminster as well as Scotland (Scotland Act) for the simple reason that the Scottish view is not the only one.

    Scotland leaving UK with Scottish consent = rUK (eg England) leaving Scotland without consent and without being asked. So England (for example) has a legitimate interest. I wouldn't consent to leaving Scotland (which is clearly visible from my town), and I want Westminster to balance the relevant interests, including ours, before deciding whether there should be a Ref2.

    Secondly there is a UK wide interest in how often we should be subjected to referendums. To my mind, not very often.

    I think there should be a settled long term will shown by well over 50% of the Scottish people before the matter is thought about at all.

    The break up of a 300 year union of nations is very different from leaving the over inflated trade association of the EU, and that has proved divisive enough.

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.

    Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.

    Largely because it is going to get worse.

    Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.

    As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.

    Well may you ask, mate.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Does look like the UK govt has benefitted somewhat from the declaration timetable this weekend - results in local and other elections declaring late Saturday/Sunday look worse for Cons than those declaring on Friday/early Saturday.

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1391409161234173958?s=20

    Maybe, but you can only choreograph a shit sandwich for Labour so much.
    Is that another Brit delicacy, perhaps a variation of toad-in-the-hole?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724

    Thursday was a dreadful day for Labour but the bizarre decision to drag the count out over three days means it’s impossible to get a clear picture on Friday morning. The Tory slump in the Home Counties is/would have been an interesting subplot, but it’s been lost really.

    I think we should go back to counting all polls on the night.

    Don't worry, the conservatives' home counties/shires slump is going to get plenty of coverage going forward.

    Largely because it is going to get worse.

    Why? because a horrible double whammy of taxation and inflation are heading straight for the tory heartlands.

    As I said earlier, in 18 months the tories are going to be looking around Essex, Kent, Surrey, Hampshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Sussex, Dorset and all the rest and wondering where all their f8cking voters have gone.

    Well may you ask, mate.
    No one can say for sure obviously. But the Biden/Johnson post-covid boom fuelled by QE could explode into a nasty inflationary period and then...
This discussion has been closed.