In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com
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For my 10,000th post, can I enquire as to if anyone in Newport did a write-in for the spoof Welsh Nude and Proud Party?0
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Is Andrew Turner still around? Knew him at Uni.IanB2 said:Another Tory loss in Ryde
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It used to be said that the SNP wouldn't pursue another referendum unless polling was showing a solid majority for independence. So that they could really argue that a) they were highly likely to win and b) it was undeniably the "settled will". After the divisiveness of Brexit they wanted to aim for rather more than "50+1"Gardenwalker said:The SNP and Green will form a pro-Indy government. But independence is not in their gift; it’s a matter for central government.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.1 -
What do the three independent groups divide over?IanB2 said:0 -
According to the Guardian, Teachers Unions were amongst signatories to a letter to the Education Secretary demanding that masks remain compulsory. Three days ago.ydoethur said:Finally, some sanity on schools:
https://www.tes.com/news/school-mask-rule-set-end-despite-teacher-opposition
(No, teachers are not opposed. The article is misleading to that extent. Some unions are, especially those representing cleaning staff. Why, I don’t know, as the children are trawling their masks over desks, touching them and then chairs, dropping them on the floor...)
Is this different from teachers being opposed, and how do they express themselves outside Unions?
Could you clarify? Thanks.
Teaching unions, scientists, public health experts and parents are calling for masks to remain compulsory in classrooms in England to protect children and their families and reduce the risk of a third wave of Covid-19.
In a letter to the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, the signatories claim current rates of vaccination are not yet sufficient to fully mitigate the impact of transmission among children on infection rates in the community. The government hopes to relax the requirement for pupils to wear face coverings in class at the next stage of the roadmap out of lockdown, due on 17 May.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/04/call-for-face-masks-to-remain-compulsory-in-england-schools-covid
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Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.2
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Jezza never changes ..on CH4 News. I was right, we had popular policies....
https://youtu.be/_qJc85PFD_A0 -
Solid Tory hold Shanklin Central0
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It's part of the realignment. I know they've managed to pick up odds and sods up North, but if they're going to stage any kind of meaningful revival then I think they're going to need to stick themselves up as the anti-Tory challengers in richer parts of England (principally the Home Counties and the M4 corridor) wherever Labour is notably weak, and try to benefit from the increased presence of metropolitans who have fled the capital due to Plague, the WFH revolution and ridiculous house prices.Gardenwalker said:Lib Dems eliminated in Wales and thrashed in Cornwall.
Sad times.
The Scottish party still has some residual strength but, like the old post-war Liberals, they're good at grabbing hold of and keeping isolated individual constituencies, but irrelevant elsewhere.0 -
That would bring me back to the party I last voted for about 40 years ago.Cocky_cockney said:Superb and utterly withering analysis by Labour MP Khalid Mahmood. Well worth reading:
More criticism of the Labour party has come in from one of its own MPs - and he doesn't hold back.
Khalid Mahmood - who was until a few weeks ago a shadow defence minister - says: "A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party.
"They mean well, of course, but their politics – obsessed with identity, division and even tech utopianism – have more in common with those of Californian high society than the kind of people who voted in Hartlepool yesterday.
"The loudest voices in the Labour movement over the past year in particular have focused more on pulling down Churchill’s statue than they have on helping people pull themselves up in the world.
"A bit of superficial flag-waving – reinforced by urgent memos from party HQ – isn’t going to fix that.
"We fix that by supporting jobs in these so-called left behind areas – with changes to public procurement, for example, that bring jobs back to the UK and support manufacturing jobs, including those in high tech, advanced manufacturing."
Source: BBC News
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The hypocrisy from the Tories is quite something . If the SNP and Greens have a majority then that’s a mandate for a referendum and they would combined have a greater share of the vote than the Tories at Westminster .0
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There was a theory that the Tories were fully relaxed about not doing well in London because of the message Labour being "the London Party" played with the rest of the country.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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"Consistently above 60%" was the line, IIRC.alex_ said:
It used to be said that the SNP wouldn't pursue another referendum unless polling was showing a solid majority for independence. So that they could really argue that a) they were highly likely to win and b) it was undeniably the "settled will". After the divisiveness of Brexit they wanted to aim for rather more than "50+1"Gardenwalker said:The SNP and Green will form a pro-Indy government. But independence is not in their gift; it’s a matter for central government.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.
Dropped now, for some reason or other....1 -
Ah, Rory Stewart. What might have been...MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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Don’t criticise HYUFD while he’s moving the goalposts.Carnyx said:1 -
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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He is utterly useless.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
It has warmed my cockles to see him (relatively) humbled.0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Is Andrew Turner still around? Knew him at Uni.IanB2 said:Another Tory loss in Ryde
My old boss knew him at uni as well. No, he is retired and under something of a cloud.CarlottaVance said:
Is Andrew Turner still around? Knew him at Uni.IanB2 said:Another Tory loss in Ryde
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OGH Tweets:
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Not unless he got round those London bedrooms as fast as SantaTheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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Yes. I agree. Khan is the worst mayor in the history of the job. Rory would have had a chanceTheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
Boris is the total Victor of the Moment.
He should reach out and extend the bent twig of reconciliation to some of the more palatable Tory refuseniks1 -
Perhaps the SNP can focus sorting out some of their other issues - drug deaths and education being a few. Might set them up well at the next election if seen to be making some progress.alex_ said:
It used to be said that the SNP wouldn't pursue another referendum unless polling was showing a solid majority for independence. So that they could really argue that a) they were highly likely to win and b) it was undeniably the "settled will". After the divisiveness of Brexit they wanted to aim for rather more than "50+1"Gardenwalker said:The SNP and Green will form a pro-Indy government. But independence is not in their gift; it’s a matter for central government.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.
That said - the longer is takes, the further the UK drifts away from the EU regulatory orbit..0 -
No one wants to call a referendum if they’re likely to lose if.nico679 said:The hypocrisy from the Tories is quite something . If the SNP and Greens have a majority then that’s a mandate for a referendum and they would combined have a greater share of the vote than the Tories at Westminster .
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He should run in 2024 as the Tory candidate. Would send Sadiq packing or running back to Westminster.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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It’s unsurprising. It’s politics. But the SNP not winning a majority (if that is what transpires) gives Johnson the fig leaf he needs to say no. Posters have very articulately explained on here the reasons why that position is logically unsound, but it doesn’t matter. The narrative will be - SNP misses out on majority. That gives the UK government what they need for the rest of the Parliament.nico679 said:The hypocrisy from the Tories is quite something . If the SNP and Greens have a majority then that’s a mandate for a referendum and they would combined have a greater share of the vote than the Tories at Westminster .
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Yes, there must be a lot of regret for London Tories not to have put up a better candidate and beaten Sadiq. Bailey is such a numpty and a racist.Gardenwalker said:
He is utterly useless.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
It has warmed my cockles to see him (relatively) humbled.0 -
So can the UK Gov organise a Sindy 2 Referendum without consent from Holyrood?Gallowgate said:
What does it matter? Nicola won't call a referendum if she isn't likely to win it and if she does, then there's nothing to fear.Gardenwalker said:
So far, at least, pro-Indy vote share is down against 16. If that holds, that puts several holes in the idea that the settled “will of the people” is for Indy.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
It's crazy.
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are eliminations done at a regional level, or are they just presuming that Khan & Bailey both make the final 2 London wide?Andy_JS said:Shaun Bailey has gained both Ealing&Hillingdon and Brent&Harrow on first preferences. Khan ahead after second preferences.
I get they clear will, but it seems uncomfortable for the RO to release partial results which contain assumptions about who wins.0 -
All it needs now is the inevitable Kirsty Wark hatchet job.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Salmond conceding on BBC1 Scotland. It might actually be the end of his political career, finally. Talk about a long goodbye.
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Vectis (ex UKIP) gain Wootton from Con0
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Bundle recount in Ventnor
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https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1390758683550916609
"George Galloway (not Lab) even-handedly blames Blair and Corbyn for destroying Labour"
The perfect solution for BJO, Jezziah etc - reinstate gorgeous George. Charismatic, Scottish, authentic. Would absolutely attract votes from middle class English people.0 -
Yep. I'm sorry but this would be a failure for independence and a relative win for unionists throughout the UK.alex_ said:
It used to be said that the SNP wouldn't pursue another referendum unless polling was showing a solid majority for independence. So that they could really argue that a) they were highly likely to win and b) it was undeniably the "settled will". After the divisiveness of Brexit they wanted to aim for rather more than "50+1"Gardenwalker said:The SNP and Green will form a pro-Indy government. But independence is not in their gift; it’s a matter for central government.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.
I don't have an axe to grind on this. I couldn't care a less about the union. In fact I think it's a bit daft but the fact remains that if the Scots wanted independence they would have voted the SNP in with an outright majority. They haven't.
I can't see a future for Indyref2. Westminster have every right with this result to ignore it.0 -
The romantic in me hates to see the Libs finally expelled from Wales after 280 years.Black_Rook said:
It's part of the realignment. I know they've managed to pick up odds and sods up North, but if they're going to stage any kind of meaningful revival then I think they're going to need to stick themselves up as the anti-Tory challengers in richer parts of England (principally the Home Counties and the M4 corridor) wherever Labour is notably weak, and try to benefit from the increased presence of metropolitans who have fled the capital due to Plague, the WFH revolution and ridiculous house prices.Gardenwalker said:Lib Dems eliminated in Wales and thrashed in Cornwall.
Sad times.
The Scottish party still has some residual strength but, like the old post-war Liberals, they're good at grabbing hold of and keeping isolated individual constituencies, but irrelevant elsewhere.
But times move on.
There seems to be three Lib Dem parties now.
1. Anti-Tory in the South East and South West.
2. Defender of various Scottish redoubts.
3. The non-barking party in NI where they are called “the Alliance”.0 -
Sadiq can't run for a third term.MaxPB said:
He should run in 2024 as the Tory candidate. Would send Sadiq packing or running back to Westminster.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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To be fair, that's pretty much what the LDs have done. They made good gains in Surrey, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Kent... basically anywhere near to London.Black_Rook said:
It's part of the realignment. I know they've managed to pick up odds and sods up North, but if they're going to stage any kind of meaningful revival then I think they're going to need to stick themselves up as the anti-Tory challengers in richer parts of England (principally the Home Counties and the M4 corridor) wherever Labour is notably weak, and try to benefit from the increased presence of metropolitans who have fled the capital due to Plague, the WFH revolution and ridiculous house prices.Gardenwalker said:Lib Dems eliminated in Wales and thrashed in Cornwall.
Sad times.
The Scottish party still has some residual strength but, like the old post-war Liberals, they're good at grabbing hold of and keeping isolated individual constituencies, but irrelevant elsewhere.0 -
I don’t think it does the Tories any harm having Sadiq running London. Quite the opposite in fact.MaxPB said:
He should run in 2024 as the Tory candidate. Would send Sadiq packing or running back to Westminster.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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These are early numbers from London - much of East London not yet included so I'd expect Khan's advantage over Bailey to increase tomorrow.
Final score from Surrey - CON 47, Non-Conservative 34. Sting in the tail for the LDs with their Group leader ousted in Caterham Hill by less than 100 votes.0 -
Oxfordshire still to come as well. They're in a prime position to become the opposition in a lot of England.rcs1000 said:
To be fair, that's pretty much what the LDs have done. They made good gains in Surrey, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Kent... basically anywhere near to London.Black_Rook said:
It's part of the realignment. I know they've managed to pick up odds and sods up North, but if they're going to stage any kind of meaningful revival then I think they're going to need to stick themselves up as the anti-Tory challengers in richer parts of England (principally the Home Counties and the M4 corridor) wherever Labour is notably weak, and try to benefit from the increased presence of metropolitans who have fled the capital due to Plague, the WFH revolution and ridiculous house prices.Gardenwalker said:Lib Dems eliminated in Wales and thrashed in Cornwall.
Sad times.
The Scottish party still has some residual strength but, like the old post-war Liberals, they're good at grabbing hold of and keeping isolated individual constituencies, but irrelevant elsewhere.1 -
Yeah, so popular he shipped an 80 seat majority to Johnson.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza never changes ..on CH4 News. I was right, we had popular policies....
https://youtu.be/_qJc85PFD_A0 -
I think it’s mainly personalities, three would be leaders each with their own followers.Foxy said:
What do the three independent groups divide over?IanB2 said:
Looks to me as if Tories are only going to be one short, maybe two, meaning they might do a deal with the ex UKIP person or pick off an independent. The centre and left councillors are split between six groupings and an administration could need all of them.0 -
Glass half full:
It’s possible that things could get worse for Labour:
- Greens surge as climate salience rises and the left splits.
- Tories go on pre-election spending/tax cut blitz.
- Modest Tory recovery in London? (Bailey has gained constituencies from Khan).
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1390761879086239749?s=20
I'd say number 2 is nailed on.....1 -
I didn't know the Mayor had term limits. Why did Ken run again in 2008 then?stodge said:
Sadiq can't run for a third term.MaxPB said:
He should run in 2024 as the Tory candidate. Would send Sadiq packing or running back to Westminster.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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I have been conversing with King Arthur about a possible counter-attack next week.0
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Increased turnout marginally benefitting Unionist side, Tories nobly sacrificing themselves in constituencies to save the precious Union. Labour doing the same half-heartedly and the LibDems jumping up and down shouting ‘remember us!’FrankBooth said:Can anyone discern a pattern in Scotland?
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Why not? There is no legal reason I'm aware of - remember Boris beat Ken Livingstone in 2008.stodge said:
Sadiq can't run for a third term.MaxPB said:
He should run in 2024 as the Tory candidate. Would send Sadiq packing or running back to Westminster.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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Looks like Starmer would put that into triple figures.Mexicanpete said:
Yeah, so popular he shipped an 80 seat majority to Johnson.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza never changes ..on CH4 News. I was right, we had popular policies....
https://youtu.be/_qJc85PFD_A0 -
What is the plan to do with the old carriagesIanB2 said:
For sure. And the town would certainly benefit considerably. The MP is championing the project, and as Tories go I have known far worse, despite the rumours that he only pretends to live on the island.Casino_Royale said:
Probably, but there's still the Tory held Westminster seat.IanB2 said:
Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000Casino_Royale said:
(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere elseIanB2 said:
We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.Casino_Royale said:
Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.IanB2 said:
I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of fundingCasino_Royale said:
Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.IanB2 said:Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.
The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.
I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.
Anyone.
(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay
I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.
£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.
There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.
Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.
The case for Isle of Wight railways run on peak summer loading, the social and congestion case, and their absolute charm.
I'd argue Ventnor has certainly suffered since the 60s without it, and definitely would benefit from it.
The marketing for IoW (and its railways) in general is utter shite. So many people in London and the home counties don't know you can wizz down there for an amazing weekend by the sea with great seafood in, like, less than 2 hours.
We are due to get new ex Metropolitan Line rolling stock, to replace our current 1938 vintage carriages, originally targeted for March, then May, now some time in the summer. But I hear the carriages we have coming have very few spare parts, so another fiasco may be in the offing once they start to wear out.
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Greens also have to be included - it's in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
Yep. I'm sorry but this would be a failure for independence and a relative win for unionists throughout the UK.alex_ said:
It used to be said that the SNP wouldn't pursue another referendum unless polling was showing a solid majority for independence. So that they could really argue that a) they were highly likely to win and b) it was undeniably the "settled will". After the divisiveness of Brexit they wanted to aim for rather more than "50+1"Gardenwalker said:The SNP and Green will form a pro-Indy government. But independence is not in their gift; it’s a matter for central government.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.
I don't have an axe to grind on this. I couldn't care a less about the union. In fact I think it's a bit daft but the fact remains that if the Scots wanted independence they would have voted the SNP in with an outright majority. They haven't.
I can't see a future for Indyref2. Westminster have every right with this result to ignore it.0 -
Excellent news coming out of Scotland.
Unionist DE-FENCE.1 -
Yes, I saw a pretty solid performance was achieved in southern Cambridgeshire. I'm somewhat interested to see what's happened down here in Hertfordshire (the Parliamentary seat in St Albans went yellow in 2019, and up here in the North they've been making some progress and we're also one of the few district in Eastern England that voted Remain,) but the county isn't counting until tomorrow and the district's not bothering until Sunday.rcs1000 said:
To be fair, that's pretty much what the LDs have done. They made good gains in Surrey, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Kent... basically anywhere near to London.Black_Rook said:
It's part of the realignment. I know they've managed to pick up odds and sods up North, but if they're going to stage any kind of meaningful revival then I think they're going to need to stick themselves up as the anti-Tory challengers in richer parts of England (principally the Home Counties and the M4 corridor) wherever Labour is notably weak, and try to benefit from the increased presence of metropolitans who have fled the capital due to Plague, the WFH revolution and ridiculous house prices.Gardenwalker said:Lib Dems eliminated in Wales and thrashed in Cornwall.
Sad times.
The Scottish party still has some residual strength but, like the old post-war Liberals, they're good at grabbing hold of and keeping isolated individual constituencies, but irrelevant elsewhere.0 -
My thought is that the the Scottish have decided that the tendency in Westminster whilst Independence appears to be a live issue is to shower them with cash and growing powers. Which explains why they keep it a live issue, but don't push it too far. What will be interesting is if somebody at Westminster at some point decides to push back.Cocky_cockney said:
Yep. I'm sorry but this would be a failure for independence and a relative win for unionists throughout the UK.alex_ said:
It used to be said that the SNP wouldn't pursue another referendum unless polling was showing a solid majority for independence. So that they could really argue that a) they were highly likely to win and b) it was undeniably the "settled will". After the divisiveness of Brexit they wanted to aim for rather more than "50+1"Gardenwalker said:The SNP and Green will form a pro-Indy government. But independence is not in their gift; it’s a matter for central government.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.
I don't have an axe to grind on this. I couldn't care a less about the union. In fact I think it's a bit daft but the fact remains that if the Scots wanted independence they would have voted the SNP in with an outright majority. They haven't.
I can't see a future for Indyref2. Westminster have every right with this result to ignore it.
And for their part, it suits the SNP for Westminster to be able to have reasons to deny further referendums.1 -
I'm sure the Prime Minister would have been happy to help with some of the bedrooms.IanB2 said:
Not unless he got round those London bedrooms as fast as SantaTheScreamingEagles said:
If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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So the losers get to decide who won and what the (booby) prize is?Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.0 -
Nah this isn't going to cut ice in Westminster.Carnyx said:
Greens also have to be included - it's in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
Yep. I'm sorry but this would be a failure for independence and a relative win for unionists throughout the UK.alex_ said:
It used to be said that the SNP wouldn't pursue another referendum unless polling was showing a solid majority for independence. So that they could really argue that a) they were highly likely to win and b) it was undeniably the "settled will". After the divisiveness of Brexit they wanted to aim for rather more than "50+1"Gardenwalker said:The SNP and Green will form a pro-Indy government. But independence is not in their gift; it’s a matter for central government.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.
I don't have an axe to grind on this. I couldn't care a less about the union. In fact I think it's a bit daft but the fact remains that if the Scots wanted independence they would have voted the SNP in with an outright majority. They haven't.
I can't see a future for Indyref2. Westminster have every right with this result to ignore it.
You want a national Scotland? You should have given your nationalist party an outright majority.
The SNP did very well but not well enough and that's in part because more people in Scotland wish to remain in the union than wish to leave it.
There is now no moral or legal reason for Westminster to pass legislation for a second independence referendum.0 -
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Maybe the news coming out of these elections from all voters (to Starmer, Sadiq, Sturgeon and some Tory councils) is don't take the piss?MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
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The Greens are a separate Party in each of EW, S and NI.Cocky_cockney said:
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.RochdalePioneers said:
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.HYUFD said:
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?RochdalePioneers said:Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
The contrast with the SNP should be obvious. Their entire raison d'etre is in the name: they are a Scottish nationalist party. They exist for an independent Scotland.
No outright SNP majority will mean no mandate (legal or moral) for another independence referendum. Westminster unionists can legitimately refuse another referendum if the SNP haven't won an outright majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_England_and_Wales0 -
I assume that Alba will be disbanded by Sunday.
Alex 'RT' Salmond can then go back to the day job.1 -
We sold them to some gullible newly elected town councillor and they’ll be running between Epping and Ongarbeentheredonethat said:
What is the plan to do with the old carriagesIanB2 said:
For sure. And the town would certainly benefit considerably. The MP is championing the project, and as Tories go I have known far worse, despite the rumours that he only pretends to live on the island.Casino_Royale said:
Probably, but there's still the Tory held Westminster seat.IanB2 said:
Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000Casino_Royale said:
(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere elseIanB2 said:
We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.Casino_Royale said:
Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.IanB2 said:
I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of fundingCasino_Royale said:
Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.IanB2 said:Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.
The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.
I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.
Anyone.
(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay
I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.
£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.
There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.
Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.
The case for Isle of Wight railways run on peak summer loading, the social and congestion case, and their absolute charm.
I'd argue Ventnor has certainly suffered since the 60s without it, and definitely would benefit from it.
The marketing for IoW (and its railways) in general is utter shite. So many people in London and the home counties don't know you can wizz down there for an amazing weekend by the sea with great seafood in, like, less than 2 hours.
We are due to get new ex Metropolitan Line rolling stock, to replace our current 1938 vintage carriages, originally targeted for March, then May, now some time in the summer. But I hear the carriages we have coming have very few spare parts, so another fiasco may be in the offing once they start to wear out.
https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/19199400.photos-swrs-old-island-line-trains-leave-isle-wight/0 -
Ballot Box Scotland
@BallotBoxScot
·
5m
Edinburgh Central (Lothian) List Vote:
SNP ~ 12476 (29.9%, +3.6)
Con ~ 9766 (23.4%, -5.7)
Green ~ 7604 (18.2%, +1.2)
Lab ~ 6866 (16.4%, -0.8)
LD ~ 3075 (7.4%, +1.4)
Alba ~ 639 (1.5%, +1.5)
AFU ~ 279 (0.7%, +0.7)
Others ~ 1071 (2.6%, -1.9)
Not what one might expect - especially for SNP and Green.0 -
Good grief. Newcastle 3-0 over Leicester.
Pulses at West Ham and Tottenham will be rising.0 -
They sacrificed the London mayoralty on the altar of Brexit. They knew it and that’s why they didn’t try. Though this is suggesting they should’ve tried harder.MaxPB said:
Yes, there must be a lot of regret for London Tories not to have put up a better candidate and beaten Sadiq. Bailey is such a numpty and a racist.Gardenwalker said:
He is utterly useless.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
It has warmed my cockles to see him (relatively) humbled.
They’ve seen how things like the free port delivered a result to Houchen that United Russia would dream of. Those ex red wall constituencies are going to get oodles of goodies landing on their doorstep in the coming years.....CarlottaVance said:Glass half full:
It’s possible that things could get worse for Labour:
- Greens surge as climate salience rises and the left splits.
- Tories go on pre-election spending/tax cut blitz.
- Modest Tory recovery in London? (Bailey has gained constituencies from Khan).
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1390761879086239749?s=20
I'd say number 2 is nailed on.....0 -
I was talking about percentages, given by the BBC.sarissa said:
Check your calculator- SGP are only 700 votes down on 2016. SCON will still be happy with the effect of their tactical voting in Ed Western and Southern.Andy_JS said:
Tory vote held up reasonably well given Ruth Davidson's departure. Big drop in the Green vote, going to the SNP.Carnyx said:Philip Sim
@BBCPhilipSim
·
6m
Angus Robertson has taken Edinburgh Central for the SNP with an 11.3% majority. Now that definitely is a big win for the SNP - no list seats in the area, so it's a net gain no matter what happens in the region
Philip Sim
@BBCPhilipSim
Replying to
@BBCPhilipSim
SNP still edging steadily closer to that majority. Still winning the seats they need to win, without losing any constituencies of their own. If (*if*) Dumbarton and Aberdeenshire West go the same way, then they can pretty much take the ball home tonight0 -
Is an SNP + Green majority nailed on?
And did the Greens have a clear commitment to a referendum in their manifesto?0 -
On the other hand, it's not good for Spurs that Leicester will have 4000 of their own fans in for the final game of the season against them.
Still the CL places are now really open.0 -
Up to a point, Lord Copper:
0 -
Except for Nick CleggSean_F said:
No one wants to call a referendum if they’re likely to lose if.nico679 said:The hypocrisy from the Tories is quite something . If the SNP and Greens have a majority then that’s a mandate for a referendum and they would combined have a greater share of the vote than the Tories at Westminster .
3 -
Havering & Redbridge, mayoral election:
Bailey: 82,361 +
Khan: 49,818 +
(awaiting second preferences)
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/results-2021/watch-live-results1 -
The two Alba defectors in the House of Commons will have been a party group for less time than Change UK if that happens, and who remembers them?SandyRentool said:I assume that Alba will be disbanded by Sunday.
Alex 'RT' Salmond can then go back to the day job.2 -
Shocking defending, but weak up front too, just like last seasons end. No way are we winning the FA Cup.Cocky_cockney said:Good grief. Newcastle 3-0 over Leicester.
Pulses at West Ham and Tottenham will be rising.0 -
Not quite they are old D78 District line trains see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Underground_D78_Stock#Withdrawal sorry and yes I know this is incredibly sad but I did a search and immediately thought hang on they aren't the trains I commuted on from Amersham to Aldgate for years (yes I did always have a seat).IanB2 said:
For sure. And the town would certainly benefit considerably. The MP is championing the project, and as Tories go I have known far worse, despite the rumours that he only pretends to live on the island.Casino_Royale said:
Probably, but there's still the Tory held Westminster seat.IanB2 said:
Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000Casino_Royale said:
(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere elseIanB2 said:
We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.Casino_Royale said:
Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.IanB2 said:
I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of fundingCasino_Royale said:
Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.IanB2 said:Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.
The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.
I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.
Anyone.
(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay
I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.
£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.
There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.
Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.
The case for Isle of Wight railways run on peak summer loading, the social and congestion case, and their absolute charm.
I'd argue Ventnor has certainly suffered since the 60s without it, and definitely would benefit from it.
The marketing for IoW (and its railways) in general is utter shite. So many people in London and the home counties don't know you can wizz down there for an amazing weekend by the sea with great seafood in, like, less than 2 hours.
We are due to get new ex Metropolitan Line rolling stock, to replace our current 1938 vintage carriages, originally targeted for March, then May, now some time in the summer. But I hear the carriages we have coming have very few spare parts, so another fiasco may be in the offing once they start to wear out.
Although that does feel very much like a Sunil post1 -
In East Lothian, the Tories didn't get that message.sarissa said:
Increased turnout marginally benefitting Unionist side, Tories nobly sacrificing themselves in constituencies to save the precious Union. Labour doing the same half-heartedly and the LibDems jumping up and down shouting ‘remember us!’FrankBooth said:Can anyone discern a pattern in Scotland?
0 -
Na. The national being the nationalCarlottaVance said:Up to a point, Lord Copper:
0 -
So not having seen the news for 12 hours, what's the single most surprising result?0
-
Final IOW - Tory 18, Ind 13, 2 and 1, Green 2, Labour 1, ex UKIP 1, LibDem 1
Tory lose to NOC0 -
https://greens.scot/our-future/independence-and-scotland-s-futureFrankBooth said:Is an SNP + Green majority nailed on?
And did the Greens have a clear commitment to a referendum in their manifesto?0 -
What's happening in Suffolk? Six green gains and two holds.0
-
I'd forgotten there were some Alba MPs. Oops.0
-
Leanne Wood.kle4 said:So not having seen the news for 12 hours, what's the single most surprising result?
0 -
FrankBooth said:
Is an SNP + Green majority nailed on?
And did the Greens have a clear commitment to a referendum in their manifesto?
AN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM SHOULD BE HELD DURING THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY SESSION
The legislation covering all aspects of the referendum, including the question and the timing, should be decided by a simple majority of the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Greens will campaign and vote for a referendum within the next Parliamentary term and under the terms of the Referendums Act (2020). We believe that the UK Government’s refusal to respect a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament would not be politically sustainable and could be subject to legal challenge.
1 -
Who reads that shite?Razedabode said:
Na. The national being the nationalCarlottaVance said:Up to a point, Lord Copper:
It’s like one of those publications they take the piss out of on HIGNFY.0 -
They seem to be working from a bar chart as created by our Lib Dem supporting GH...Razedabode said:
Na. The national being the nationalCarlottaVance said:Up to a point, Lord Copper:
0 -
Ed SouthernCarnyx said:Ballot Box Scotland
@BallotBoxScot
·
5m
Edinburgh Central (Lothian) List Vote:
SNP ~ 12476 (29.9%, +3.6)
Con ~ 9766 (23.4%, -5.7)
Green ~ 7604 (18.2%, +1.2)
Lab ~ 6866 (16.4%, -0.8)
LD ~ 3075 (7.4%, +1.4)
Alba ~ 639 (1.5%, +1.5)
AFU ~ 279 (0.7%, +0.7)
Others ~ 1071 (2.6%, -1.9)
Not what one might expect - especially for SNP and Green.
Labour ~ 11128 (24.5%, +2.6)
SNP ~ 11053 (24.3%, +1.1)
Con ~ 9357 (20.6%, -8.6)
Grn ~ 8605 (18.9%, +2.1)
LD ~ 3373 (7.4%, +2.3)
Alba ~ 611 (1.3%, +1.3)
AFU ~ 250 (0.6%, +0.6)
Others ~ 1050 (2.3%, -1.4)
Very interesting what's happening on the list in Edinburgh.0 -
BBC projection:
Con 327
Lab 226
LD 24
Others 730 -
So this is a stunning endorsement of lockdowns.
That's the correct hot take on these elections, right?0 -
BBC local government projections for Parliament doing it's usual weird job.0
-
The parliament is similar in make up to the last.Alistair said:FrankBooth said:Is an SNP + Green majority nailed on?
And did the Greens have a clear commitment to a referendum in their manifesto?
AN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM SHOULD BE HELD DURING THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY SESSION
The legislation covering all aspects of the referendum, including the question and the timing, should be decided by a simple majority of the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Greens will campaign and vote for a referendum within the next Parliamentary term and under the terms of the Referendums Act (2020). We believe that the UK Government’s refusal to respect a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament would not be politically sustainable and could be subject to legal challenge.
Indy vote didn’t happen then. So what’s changed? The only thing I can see is pressure on Sturgeon to press on regardless...0 -
Interesting! I didn't vote in the end, mostly due to Covid concerns (unfounded, natch), but I wish I had nowAndy_JS said:Havering & Redbridge, mayoral election:
Bailey: 82,361 +
Khan: 49,818 +
(awaiting second preferences)
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/results-2021/watch-live-results
0 -
1
-
This coronavirus thing. Also this Brexit thing.Razedabode said:
The parliament is similar in make up to the last.Alistair said:FrankBooth said:Is an SNP + Green majority nailed on?
And did the Greens have a clear commitment to a referendum in their manifesto?
AN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM SHOULD BE HELD DURING THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY SESSION
The legislation covering all aspects of the referendum, including the question and the timing, should be decided by a simple majority of the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Greens will campaign and vote for a referendum within the next Parliamentary term and under the terms of the Referendums Act (2020). We believe that the UK Government’s refusal to respect a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament would not be politically sustainable and could be subject to legal challenge.
Indy vote didn’t happen then. So what’s changed? The only thing I can see is pressure on Sturgeon to press on regardless...0 -
Neither AFAIK. The full results for all candidates, 1st and 2nd prefs, go through to the final London-wide result.maaarsh said:
are eliminations done at a regional level, or are they just presuming that Khan & Bailey both make the final 2 London wide?Andy_JS said:Shaun Bailey has gained both Ealing&Hillingdon and Brent&Harrow on first preferences. Khan ahead after second preferences.
I get they clear will, but it seems uncomfortable for the RO to release partial results which contain assumptions about who wins.0 -
That's what Tees Valley voted for - now Boris needs to delivery or like Redcar back in 2015 - those votes will return back to Labour...numbertwelve said:
They sacrificed the London mayoralty on the altar of Brexit. They knew it and that’s why they didn’t try. Though this is suggesting they should’ve tried harder.MaxPB said:
Yes, there must be a lot of regret for London Tories not to have put up a better candidate and beaten Sadiq. Bailey is such a numpty and a racist.Gardenwalker said:
He is utterly useless.MaxPB said:Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.
It has warmed my cockles to see him (relatively) humbled.
They’ve seen how things like the free port delivered a result to Houchen that United Russia would dream of. Those ex red wall constituencies are going to get oodles of goodies landing on their doorstep in the coming years.....CarlottaVance said:Glass half full:
It’s possible that things could get worse for Labour:
- Greens surge as climate salience rises and the left splits.
- Tories go on pre-election spending/tax cut blitz.
- Modest Tory recovery in London? (Bailey has gained constituencies from Khan).
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1390761879086239749?s=20
I'd say number 2 is nailed on.....0 -
LIB DEMS WINNING HEREAndy_JS said:BBC projection:
Con 327
Lab 226
LD 24
Others 731
