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In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    Yeah, he personally went to Boots and put in the order. Oh, I forgot Johnson invented them all too. You've started to believe you own BS.
    No, his government organised the Vaccine Taskforce, put Kate Bingham in place, gave her the money and let her do the job.

    So yes - he put in the order. By doing that. How did you think they were procured? Did you think a stork brought them to us?
  • Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    I think that the vaccines are the right conclusion - outside of the re-alignments overdue from 2016, a vaccine bounce is a compelling and credible narrative tying results in all 3 GB countries together.
    But then such a win implies the 7 point lead is possibly not sustainable, if and when something happens to blow the Tories off course, which I am sure it will (it might well not be sustained and BoJo will continue to be teflon-coated). In which case, how much "change" does Starmer really need to do?

    I am not sure I find this conclusion compelling in of itself
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
    Not equally. Who procured the vaccines? The ones who procured the vaccines deserve the credit.
    Kate Bingham....
    And who put Kate Bingham in place? Who delegated the authority to her, gave her the budget, gave her authorisation?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    You're like a stuck record. You can't credibly claim Welsh Labour doesn't deserve a vaccine boost but the Tories do. That's just silly bias.
    Unless Welsh Labour created their own Vaccine Taskforce, hired their own Kate Bingham, then absolutely I can credibly claim it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Monopolising the media during a pandemic?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,704
    algarkirk said:

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Not an expert but Bridget Philippson would be worth a trial, though she could well be a red wall martyr next time. Angela Eagle is first rate. Hilary Benn. Jess Phillips - star quality but could easily blow up.

    They definitely need to use Jess more.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited May 2021

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
    Not equally. Who procured the vaccines? The ones who procured the vaccines deserve the credit.
    Kate Bingham....
    And who put Kate Bingham in place? Who delegated the authority to her, gave her the budget, gave her authorisation?
    If the story is to be believed Hancock was the big driver of all of this within government and pushed for the important conditions / funding, that the likes of the EU got wrong.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875

    I think she has to be seen to press on regardless as the pressure will mount from within.

    I don’t think it’s wise in the midst of a COVID recovery, mind you.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Rachel Reeves
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875

    PB Scotch Experts will be along to tell us why she isn't doing that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    I’ve been out all night.

    Can someone explain the situation in London? Why hasn’t it been declared yet?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    Yeah, he personally went to Boots and put in the order. Oh, I forgot Johnson invented them all too. You've started to believe you own BS.
    He personally delivered them too. I saw him on TV with a white coat and all.
  • I really rate Reeves, yes.

    Cooper for SC seems to still be on the cards from what I've been told, reshuffle any day
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    So politicians get electoral benefit for nice things that happen outside their control, even if it isn't fair.
    I don't think that's news, and I'm not sure that the Westminster government is in any position to complain.
    (Which to be fair, I don't think they're doing here.)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021
    Oh, Labour got a list seat in North Wales to compensate the Vale of Clwyd loss

    If they hold Vale of Glamorgan and confirm their 2 list seats in Mid Wales, they will have 30 seats at the end
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,558

    Drakeford is explained away because of vaccine bounce but Johnson is a super hero and it's completely different, such is logic

    The simple truth is:

    You Can’t Shake the Drake.
    Black don't crack - but the Drake don't break......
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,030

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    You're not seriously claiming poverty are you Big_G? I always had you as comfortably well-off.
    I am but large parts of Wales suffer poverty both here in North Wales but also in the Valleys and elsewhere
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
    Not equally. Who procured the vaccines? The ones who procured the vaccines deserve the credit.
    Kate Bingham....
    And who put Kate Bingham in place? Who delegated the authority to her, gave her the budget, gave her authorisation?
    If the story is to be believed Hancock was the big driver of all of this within government and pushed for the important conditions / funding.
    Absolutely - and so Hancock's government deserves the credit. Is Hancock a part of Boris's government, or Drakeford's?

    Hancock, Boris, Bingham etc sorted the procurement. Not Drakeford and his Health Secretary I couldn't even name.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Alistair said:

    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875

    PB Scotch Experts will be along to tell us why she isn't doing that.
    It says she will press ahead with legislation - I don’t think anyone denies she has the right to legislate as much as she likes?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    I’ve been out all night.

    Can someone explain the situation in London? Why hasn’t it been declared yet?

    Half of London counts tomorrow
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    Yeah, he personally went to Boots and put in the order. Oh, I forgot Johnson invented them all too. You've started to believe you own BS.
    No, his government organised the Vaccine Taskforce, put Kate Bingham in place, gave her the money and let her do the job.

    So yes - he put in the order. By doing that. How did you think they were procured? Did you think a stork brought them to us?
    Hats off to Kate Bingham and hats off to Johnson for recruiting her and not interfering with the NHS.

    But the point stands Drakeford, Sturgeon and Johnson have had a vaccine bounce. In all three cases gravity could soon apply.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    So - regarding the constituency vote for Scotland- which pollster is looking the closest?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,704

    Seen that Starmer interview / rant. If - and its a big if - he means what he is saying, then in the next few days we are going to see fireworks.

    I said earlier that Labour need to split. If he instigates a purge of the maniacs - Campaign Group, Unite etc - then he creates the split. Or will he remain frit?

    He was rather shouty...quiet man turning up the volume.
    "We’re seen as patronising supply teachers. There’s some truth to the “going for a pint” test, and right now, we’re so worthy, gloomy and dull, even most Labour activists wouldn’t go for a drink with us."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/labour-politics-return-to-grit-wit-and-steel-991247
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,124

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Rachel Reeves
    Lewis.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896

    I’ve been out all night.

    Can someone explain the situation in London? Why hasn’t it been declared yet?

    Because Count Binface has won and the powers that be are trying to work out how to explain it.
  • https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1390781576615809030

    Oh great, is it force people back to the office time again?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    So politicians get electoral benefit for nice things that happen outside their control, even if it isn't fair.
    I don't think that's news, and I'm not sure that the Westminster government is in any position to complain.
    (Which to be fair, I don't think they're doing here.)
    No they're not but @CorrectHorseBattery is saying that it should apply equally to all governments, disregarding the fact that one of the governments created and drove the Vaccine Task Force - it wasn't done equally.
  • Bed time for me, good night
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,124

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
    Not equally. Who procured the vaccines? The ones who procured the vaccines deserve the credit.
    Kate Bingham....
    And who put Kate Bingham in place? Who delegated the authority to her, gave her the budget, gave her authorisation?
    Carrie.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Alistair said:

    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875

    PB Scotch Experts will be along to tell us why she isn't doing that.
    There's no real downside if the end result is that the Supreme Court sides with Johnson. Which it presumably would. It's difficult to locate a legal argument that would produce any other result. "Moral justification" doesn't really cut it. Governing entities cannot implement measures they don't have the legal power to implement. And the requirement for Westminster to agree to a referendum is clear (and with precedent - that the SNP previously accepted).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited May 2021
    kle4 said:

    So the ideal situation with Alba was that they did enough to undermine the other Sindy parties, not benefit them - have we been so lucky?

    The highest vote for Alba that I have seen anywhere is 3.5% (Dundee West), which is way below where they need to be to pick up any seats, but mostly they are down below 2%. You might find one or two places where those votes would have gained the Greens an extra list seat (but you might not), but the SNP pick up so few list seats anyway that it makes no difference if they're wasted by going to Alba rather than wasted going to the SNP.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
    Not equally. Who procured the vaccines? The ones who procured the vaccines deserve the credit.
    Kate Bingham....
    And who put Kate Bingham in place? Who delegated the authority to her, gave her the budget, gave her authorisation?
    Carrie.
    If that's the case then Boris's government deserves the credit. 👍
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    So - regarding the constituency vote for Scotland- which pollster is looking the closest?

    Based on declared Constituency Results (so clearly subject to change) I believe Panelbase for Sunday Times looking pretty good.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    You're like a stuck record. You can't credibly claim Welsh Labour doesn't deserve a vaccine boost but the Tories do. That's just silly bias.
    Don't worry Horse, if Philip doesn't see a correlation, he won't notice the Johnson train wreck when it eventually arrives.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I am trying not to fall asleep before Vale of Glamorgan...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134
    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    H'Angus the Monkey, local football mascot.

    Thrice Mayor of Hartlepool.

    Stood as a PR stunt for the club.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H'Angus
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    One thing that has come across from all of my friends and family, regardless of their affiliation is just how much they all think Sadiq is completely crap. I think even a marginally acceptable Tory candidate would have won.
    He just hasn’t done anything. He delivered the Night Tube after Boris endlessly promised it but ended up in wrangles with the unions. But beyond that (which was very early in his term) he hasn’t done anything. Crossrail is miles behind schedule, for example. I voted for Luisa. Gave Sadiq my second choice to protect us from the incompetent Bailey, but not with any enthusiasm.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,124
    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Monopolising the media during a pandemic?
    Yes, Covid was a great opportunity for all leaders of rich countries. Just needed to avoid doing a Trump.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited May 2021

    Seen that Starmer interview / rant. If - and its a big if - he means what he is saying, then in the next few days we are going to see fireworks.

    I said earlier that Labour need to split. If he instigates a purge of the maniacs - Campaign Group, Unite etc - then he creates the split. Or will he remain frit?

    He was rather shouty...quiet man turning up the volume.
    "We’re seen as patronising supply teachers. There’s some truth to the “going for a pint” test, and right now, we’re so worthy, gloomy and dull, even most Labour activists wouldn’t go for a drink with us."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/labour-politics-return-to-grit-wit-and-steel-991247
    That's the thing...compare and contrast with the likes of John Prescott or Alan Johnson. They are the sort of Labour folk I remember growing up as a kid going to the working mens club
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Alistair said:

    So - regarding the constituency vote for Scotland- which pollster is looking the closest?

    Based on declared Constituency Results (so clearly subject to change) I believe Panelbase for Sunday Times looking pretty good.
    Interesting - thought they were one of the only pollsters to state Alba picking up list seats as well..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    IanB2 said:

    I’ve been out all night.

    Can someone explain the situation in London? Why hasn’t it been declared yet?

    Half of London counts tomorrow
    Sigh. What a joke.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ed West

    SNP ~ 14409 (30.8%, -1.4)
    Lib Dem ~ 11923 (25.5%, +4.6)
    Con ~ 9350 (20%, -5.6)
    Lab ~ 5140 (11%, -0.6)
    Green ~ 4101 (8.8%, +1.8)
    Alba ~ 614 (1.3%, +1.3)
    AFU ~ 240 (0.5%, +0.5)
    Others ~ 1052 (2.2%, -0.6)

    Edinburgh really not grasping the "Vote for the Conservatives on the Peach paper" thing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    You're like a stuck record. You can't credibly claim Welsh Labour doesn't deserve a vaccine boost but the Tories do. That's just silly bias.
    Don't worry Horse, if Philip doesn't see a correlation, he won't notice the Johnson train wreck when it eventually arrives.
    I see the correlation, that's the point!

    There's causation in England. Boris's government created the VTF, hired Kate Bingham, funded it, chose the priorities, procured the vaccine.
    There's correlation in Scotland and Wales. They didn't create the VTF but can claim reflected credit thanks to the success Boris's government achieved.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    I am trying not to fall asleep before Vale of Glamorgan...

    I would be shocked if it's not a Labour hold it was tight last time, but I am less inclined to see it this time. The 3% swing to Cons. in neighbouring Bridgend could be a concern for Jane

    Great work tonight @AndreaParma_82 . Thanks
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    So politicians get electoral benefit for nice things that happen outside their control, even if it isn't fair.
    I don't think that's news, and I'm not sure that the Westminster government is in any position to complain.
    (Which to be fair, I don't think they're doing here.)
    No they're not but @CorrectHorseBattery is saying that it should apply equally to all governments, disregarding the fact that one of the governments created and drove the Vaccine Task Force - it wasn't done equally.
    One of the Oxford scientists who actually invented the AZ vaccine lives in the next village. We know each other very very passingly.

    I can share her opinions on the current government if you like? They’re not pretty.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    So politicians get electoral benefit for nice things that happen outside their control, even if it isn't fair.
    I don't think that's news, and I'm not sure that the Westminster government is in any position to complain.
    (Which to be fair, I don't think they're doing here.)
    No they're not but @CorrectHorseBattery is saying that it should apply equally to all governments, disregarding the fact that one of the governments created and drove the Vaccine Task Force - it wasn't done equally.
    One of the Oxford scientists who actually invented the AZ vaccine lives in the next village. We know each other very very passingly.

    I can share her opinions on the current government if you like? They’re not pretty.
    That's not remotely relevant to the conversation.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    IanB2 said:

    I’ve been out all night.

    Can someone explain the situation in London? Why hasn’t it been declared yet?

    Half of London counts tomorrow
    Piss poor by Khan given the halfwit he’s been up against. I trust this puts an end to the notion of him as a future party leader.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Seen that Starmer interview / rant. If - and its a big if - he means what he is saying, then in the next few days we are going to see fireworks.

    I said earlier that Labour need to split. If he instigates a purge of the maniacs - Campaign Group, Unite etc - then he creates the split. Or will he remain frit?

    He was rather shouty...quiet man turning up the volume.
    "We’re seen as patronising supply teachers. There’s some truth to the “going for a pint” test, and right now, we’re so worthy, gloomy and dull, even most Labour activists wouldn’t go for a drink with us."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/labour-politics-return-to-grit-wit-and-steel-991247
    That's the thing...compare and contrast with the likes of John Prescott or Alan Johnson. They are the sort of Labour folk I remember growing up as a kid going to the working mens club
    Massive fan of Alan Johnson, his reaming out of Lansman, complete with the quivering violence in his voice was spectacular. Amazing life story as well. Labour could do worse than sneak him back in in Brabin's seat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dme8AwpThAc&ab_channel=TheTelegraph

    What do people think of Barry Gardiner? Scottish, eloquent, and a relative safe pair of hands.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    One thing that has come across from all of my friends and family, regardless of their affiliation is just how much they all think Sadiq is completely crap. I think even a marginally acceptable Tory candidate would have won.
    He just hasn’t done anything. He delivered the Night Tube after Boris endlessly promised it but ended up in wrangles with the unions. But beyond that (which was very early in his term) he hasn’t done anything. Crossrail is miles behind schedule, for example. I voted for Luisa. Gave Sadiq my second choice to protect us from the incompetent Bailey, but not with any enthusiasm.
    Sums up Khan whole political career, he was same in government. He is great at sounding like he is doing stuff, without doing anything.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    So politicians get electoral benefit for nice things that happen outside their control, even if it isn't fair.
    I don't think that's news, and I'm not sure that the Westminster government is in any position to complain.
    (Which to be fair, I don't think they're doing here.)
    No they're not but @CorrectHorseBattery is saying that it should apply equally to all governments, disregarding the fact that one of the governments created and drove the Vaccine Task Force - it wasn't done equally.
    One of the Oxford scientists who actually invented the AZ vaccine lives in the next village. We know each other very very passingly.

    I can share her opinions on the current government if you like? They’re not pretty.
    That's not remotely relevant to the conversation.
    Oh, sorry, I thought the subject was (your words) “claiming credit for the vaccines”.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    You're like a stuck record. You can't credibly claim Welsh Labour doesn't deserve a vaccine boost but the Tories do. That's just silly bias.
    Don't worry Horse, if Philip doesn't see a correlation, he won't notice the Johnson train wreck when it eventually arrives.
    I see the correlation, that's the point!

    There's causation in England. Boris's government created the VTF, hired Kate Bingham, funded it, chose the priorities, procured the vaccine.
    There's correlation in Scotland and Wales. They didn't create the VTF but can claim reflected credit thanks to the success Boris's government achieved.
    Blah, blah, blah.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Chameleon said:

    Seen that Starmer interview / rant. If - and its a big if - he means what he is saying, then in the next few days we are going to see fireworks.

    I said earlier that Labour need to split. If he instigates a purge of the maniacs - Campaign Group, Unite etc - then he creates the split. Or will he remain frit?

    He was rather shouty...quiet man turning up the volume.
    "We’re seen as patronising supply teachers. There’s some truth to the “going for a pint” test, and right now, we’re so worthy, gloomy and dull, even most Labour activists wouldn’t go for a drink with us."

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/labour-politics-return-to-grit-wit-and-steel-991247
    That's the thing...compare and contrast with the likes of John Prescott or Alan Johnson. They are the sort of Labour folk I remember growing up as a kid going to the working mens club
    Massive fan of Alan Johnson, his reaming out of Lansman, complete with the quivering violence in his voice was spectacular. Amazing life story as well. Labour could do worse than sneak him back in in Brabin's seat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dme8AwpThAc&ab_channel=TheTelegraph

    What do people think of Barry Gardiner? Scottish, eloquent, and a relative safe pair of hands.
    The single most inept politician I’ve ever encountered?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The best hope for a Labour recovery in Scotland is for the SNP to have another ref and lose it. At that point surely some voters that crossed over would start returning as at that really would be the end of the road for independence for many years to come.


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    NeilVW said:

    Alistair said:

    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875

    PB Scotch Experts will be along to tell us why she isn't doing that.
    It says she will press ahead with legislation - I don’t think anyone denies she has the right to legislate as much as she likes?
    Scotland Act

    29 (1)An Act of the Scottish Parliament is not law so far as any provision of the Act is outside the legislative competence of the Parliament.
    (2)A provision is outside that competence so far as any of the following paragraphs apply—
    (a)it would form part of the law of a country or territory other than Scotland, or confer or remove functions exercisable otherwise than in or as regards Scotland,
    (b)it relates to reserved matters...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2021

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    So politicians get electoral benefit for nice things that happen outside their control, even if it isn't fair.
    I don't think that's news, and I'm not sure that the Westminster government is in any position to complain.
    (Which to be fair, I don't think they're doing here.)
    No they're not but @CorrectHorseBattery is saying that it should apply equally to all governments, disregarding the fact that one of the governments created and drove the Vaccine Task Force - it wasn't done equally.
    One of the Oxford scientists who actually invented the AZ vaccine lives in the next village. We know each other very very passingly.

    I can share her opinions on the current government if you like? They’re not pretty.
    That's not remotely relevant to the conversation.
    Oh, sorry, I thought the subject was (your words) “claiming credit for the vaccines”.
    No those were not my words. My words were "Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured."

    Did you omit the word procured for a reason? Procurement was the issue where the vast majority of governments stumbled. Procurement was the issue where ours succeeded. Procurement was what Kate Bingham did, what Boris got her to do - and what Drakeford did not.

    So unless your friend was involved in procurement then no, it was no the subject. Thanks for trying, try reading the entire sentence next time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited May 2021

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    One thing that has come across from all of my friends and family, regardless of their affiliation is just how much they all think Sadiq is completely crap. I think even a marginally acceptable Tory candidate would have won.
    He just hasn’t done anything. He delivered the Night Tube after Boris endlessly promised it but ended up in wrangles with the unions. But beyond that (which was very early in his term) he hasn’t done anything. Crossrail is miles behind schedule, for example. I voted for Luisa. Gave Sadiq my second choice to protect us from the incompetent Bailey, but not with any enthusiasm.
    Sums up Khan whole political career, he was same in government. He is great at sounding like he is doing stuff, without doing anything.
    Sounds like he has great political skills at least then.

    Better than those who might do stuff but do something awful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    No argument tonight about which wing of Labour is worse? Have they all been given the day off?

    Time for bed, then.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Declaration in Vale of Glamorgan

    There are getting on the stage...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    One thing that has come across from all of my friends and family, regardless of their affiliation is just how much they all think Sadiq is completely crap. I think even a marginally acceptable Tory candidate would have won.
    He just hasn’t done anything. He delivered the Night Tube after Boris endlessly promised it but ended up in wrangles with the unions. But beyond that (which was very early in his term) he hasn’t done anything. Crossrail is miles behind schedule, for example. I voted for Luisa. Gave Sadiq my second choice to protect us from the incompetent Bailey, but not with any enthusiasm.
    Sums up Khan whole political career, he was same in government. He is great at sounding like he is doing stuff, without doing anything.
    Sounds like he has great political skills at least then.

    Better than those who might do stuff but do something awful.
    There's summat to be said for that. Our PPC increased her majority from 6k to 66k.
    Has she done owt great? Not that I can recall.
    Has she said or done owt ludicrous?
    Same. Which is sometimes plenty enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Keep a lid on his personal finances and avoid self destruction and Boris should be able to achieve a decade in power if he wants, with that very healthy majority. That was probably true before today.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    I am trying not to fall asleep before Vale of Glamorgan...

    I would be shocked if it's not a Labour hold it was tight last time, but I am less inclined to see it this time. The 3% swing to Cons. in neighbouring Bridgend could be a concern for Jane

    Great work tonight @AndreaParma_82 . Thanks
    You're welcome. I think part of the above average swing in Bridgend may be due to not having the FS on the ballot anymore but a new candidate.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    On the flipside, polls are showing a decent No lead, the question will be remain/leave (which is another few points for remain), and sturgeon won't call it until she's sure of a win. Brexit is done, and there are no immediately obvious events that will push people towards Leave.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    I am trying not to fall asleep before Vale of Glamorgan...

    I would be shocked if it's not a Labour hold it was tight last time, but I am less inclined to see it this time. The 3% swing to Cons. in neighbouring Bridgend could be a concern for Jane

    Great work tonight @AndreaParma_82 . Thanks
    You're welcome. I think part of the above average swing in Bridgend may be due to not having the FS on the ballot anymore but a new candidate.
    A good point
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Vale of Glamorgan

    Lab 18,xxx
    Con 15,xxx

    If I've heard correctly
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    IshmaelZ said:

    NeilVW said:

    Alistair said:

    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875

    PB Scotch Experts will be along to tell us why she isn't doing that.
    It says she will press ahead with legislation - I don’t think anyone denies she has the right to legislate as much as she likes?
    Scotland Act

    29 (1)An Act of the Scottish Parliament is not law so far as any provision of the Act is outside the legislative competence of the Parliament.
    (2)A provision is outside that competence so far as any of the following paragraphs apply—
    (a)it would form part of the law of a country or territory other than Scotland, or confer or remove functions exercisable otherwise than in or as regards Scotland,
    (b)it relates to reserved matters...
    The Act might not have legal force and might be challenged in the Supreme Court but she can still pass one, is my point.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Vale of Glamorgan

    Lab 18,xxx
    Con 15,xxx

    If I've heard correctly

    Closer than I thought!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    Guessing I shouldn't mention tomorrow's Times front page where it's suggested Boris wants over a decade in power and a war on Woke then?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    Labour have won in Wales and won't need PC. SNP don't have a majority in Scotland.

    That cockblocks Indyrefs.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,881
    Carnyx said:

    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder how Andy Burnham has done in Manchester?

    A good performance - against national trend - might give him a strong base to launch a Kier ouster.

    He's not in parliament. May as well bet on David Miliband.
    At least Burnham is in the UK.
    Doesn't Miliband's role with the International Rescue Mission mean he can be deployed at a moment's notice?
    Well, of course. Thunderbirds and all that.
    Wouldn't Lady Penelope be a more appealing choice IF you wish to select the next Labour Leader from the Thunderbird roster? Would tick off the woman box?

    OR if you do NOT wish to go posh, how's about Parker? Working class bloke, if not exactly in the model of Keir (Hardy that is).

    Thunderbirds - Lady Penelope's Triumph
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnij4E6Vopw
    Wouldn’t the Tories argue she’s only a puppet?
    Don't even look at 'Parker's Day Off' on Youtube. There's even a Swinton in it. Horribly non-PC. Though Parker redeems all.
    By coincidence, the Swinton Hurdle is to be run at Haydock tomorrow. (And doesn't Parker ding the steeple?)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    Labour have won in Wales and won't need PC. SNP don't have a majority in Scotland.

    That cockblocks Indyrefs.
    Have they? Looks like Labour 30 of 60 to me.
    SNP too early to call.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    dixiedean said:

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    Labour have won in Wales and won't need PC. SNP don't have a majority in Scotland.

    That cockblocks Indyrefs.
    Have they? Looks like Labour 30 of 60 to me.
    SNP too early to call.
    Indeed. Not quite enough in Wales.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    VofG

    Lab 43.5% (+4.3)
    Con 35.9% (-0.8)

    Jane Hutt's majorities

    1999: 2.8%
    2003: 9.5%
    2007: 0.2%
    2011: 11.4%
    2016: 2.1%
    2021: 7.6%
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    dixiedean said:

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    Labour have won in Wales and won't need PC. SNP don't have a majority in Scotland.

    That cockblocks Indyrefs.
    Have they? Looks like Labour 30 of 60 to me.
    SNP too early to call.
    Brilliant result for Labour. No denying otherwise. Will be able to govern.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited May 2021

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    There won’t be a ‘massive’ parliamentary majority but I concede there will be one. As for gaming it, it’s difficult to predict really. Just because London says no it doesn’t naturally follow that the majority of the electorate that voted for anti-referendum parties are going to naturally shift to a pro-referendum position. In all likelihood things will stay uncomfortably balanced for the foreseeable future in that damning zone of 52-48 either way, give or take.

    I suspect Scotland is in a bit of a limbo until the time that either a) there is such an irrefutable will for Scottish independence that it simply becomes too difficult to ignore without causing civil strife or b) the SNP give confidence and supply to a Labour government at Westminster. I don’t think the Tories want it to happen on their watch so they will do everything in their power to not be the ones left holding the baby. If that means sticking it out for a few years and saying no, so be it.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2021
    Rachel Reeves is like the female Keir Starmer for me. Someone bland, dull who is like an empty vessel. I’m not too keen on Jess Philips, but at least I have an idea as to what her world view is.

    Labour needs to find someone who is both an engaging media performer and competent. No point in appointing a telegenic leader who turns out to be a piss poor PM because they don’t actually know how to govern.

    We’ve had stories on ‘war on the woke’ for literally years now with the government. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some people from this site started a website/Twitter called ‘woke watch’ or whatever where they monitor the activity of anyone they seem to be ‘woke’ as if they were the online ‘neighbourhood watch.’
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Tories still increasing their majority on Swindon I see. In parliamentary terms it used to be close in Swindon.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Well done to Labour in Wales. That’s a cracking result whatever your political views.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Also, Khan not being Londoner’s favourite person does not necessarily mean Londoners would have opted for another non-Bailey Conservative candidate.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    Rachel Reeves is like the female Keir Starmer for me. Someone bland, dull who is like an empty vessel. I’m not too keen on Jess Philips, but at least I have an idea as to what her world view is.

    Labour needs to find someone who is both an engaging media performer and competent. No point in appointing a telegenic leader who turns out to be a piss poor PM because they don’t actually know how to govern.

    We’ve had stories on ‘war on the woke’ for literally years now with the government. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some people from this site started a website/Twitter called ‘woke watch’ or whatever where monitor the activity of anyone they seem to be ‘woke’ as if they were the online ‘neighbourhood watch.’

    GB News is planning a regular "Woke Watch" segment.
    No. I am neither joking nor making that up.
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    valleyboy said:

    dixiedean said:

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    Labour have won in Wales and won't need PC. SNP don't have a majority in Scotland.

    That cockblocks Indyrefs.
    Have they? Looks like Labour 30 of 60 to me.
    SNP too early to call.
    Brilliant result for Labour. No denying otherwise. Will be able to govern.
    Labour will run a minority off 30 almost certainly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,881
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    I do wonder how much of that anomaly might be due to the design of the mayoral ballot paper, which had four columns, depending how you count them, with instructions to use one or two columns. I might not be the sharpest flag up the pole but it took me a few seconds to work out what was meant, and then to find Sadiq in the bottom right corner.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    dixiedean said:

    Rachel Reeves is like the female Keir Starmer for me. Someone bland, dull who is like an empty vessel. I’m not too keen on Jess Philips, but at least I have an idea as to what her world view is.

    Labour needs to find someone who is both an engaging media performer and competent. No point in appointing a telegenic leader who turns out to be a piss poor PM because they don’t actually know how to govern.

    We’ve had stories on ‘war on the woke’ for literally years now with the government. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some people from this site started a website/Twitter called ‘woke watch’ or whatever where monitor the activity of anyone they seem to be ‘woke’ as if they were the online ‘neighbourhood watch.’

    GB News is planning a regular "Woke Watch" segment.
    No. I am neither joking nor making that up.
    Not really surprised about that tbh. They look like they’ll be a cross between the Daily Mail and Talkradio as a news channel.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    So politicians get electoral benefit for nice things that happen outside their control, even if it isn't fair.
    I don't think that's news, and I'm not sure that the Westminster government is in any position to complain.
    (Which to be fair, I don't think they're doing here.)
    No they're not but @CorrectHorseBattery is saying that it should apply equally to all governments, disregarding the fact that one of the governments created and drove the Vaccine Task Force - it wasn't done equally.
    How many of the devolved Governments had a go at the creation of the VTF or Kate Bingham herself?

    Sturgeon was observed having a go for failing to join the EU initiative, iirc.

    And I wonder how many politicians promoted the "corrupt appointment" and "PR budget created for cronies" narratives about Bingham and the VTF?

    I'd be surprised if a few on the lists of "good with media" Lab pols did not.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Also, Khan not being Londoner’s favourite person does not necessarily mean Londoners would have opted for another non-Bailey Conservative candidate.

    Apathy was so high towards him though, a Stewart-esque figure may have been enough.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Guessing I shouldn't mention tomorrow's Times front page where it's suggested Boris wants over a decade in power and a war on Woke then?

    Do you have a link to that?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,616
    “Boris will end up driving many people clinically insane. Someone they regard as little more than a circus clown gets Brexit over the line with little disturbance, gets Britain out of pandemic before everyone else, and pulverises the Labour party into existential dread”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1390791262589050880?s=21
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134
    edited May 2021

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    There won’t be a ‘massive’ parliamentary majority but I concede there will be one. As for gaming it, it’s difficult to predict really. Just because London says no it doesn’t naturally follow that the majority of the electorate that voted for anti-referendum parties are going to naturally shift to a pro-referendum position. In all likelihood things will stay uncomfortably balanced for the foreseeable future in that damning zone of 52-48 either way, give or take.

    I suspect Scotland is in a bit of a limbo until the time that either a) there is such an irrefutable will for Scottish independence that it simply becomes too difficult to ignore without causing civil strife or b) the SNP give confidence and supply to a Labour government at Westminster. I don’t think the Tories want it to happen on their watch so they will do everything in their power to not be the ones left holding the baby. If that means sticking it out for a few years and saying no, so be it.
    I wonder if now that the Election is out of the way (subject to final result ... ) anyone will begin addressing the manifest Governance problems at Holyrood, and the aspects of devolution everywhere which qualify as a series of dogs' breakfasts?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    Tories still increasing their majority on Swindon I see. In parliamentary terms it used to be close in Swindon.

    Remember when Nuneaton was a bellweather in 2010.

    Now a 30% (13,000) majority in the constituency, 24/34 council seats.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Starmer is a bloody lucky boy this wasn't a stand alone by election with nowt else to talk about for weeks.
    As it is. Wales has come. Then Scotland.
  • IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    I do wonder how much of that anomaly might be due to the design of the mayoral ballot paper, which had four columns, depending how you count them, with instructions to use one or two columns. I might not be the sharpest flag up the pole but it took me a few seconds to work out what was meant, and then to find Sadiq in the bottom right corner.
    Surely just to do with having 20 choices for Mayor, and a second vote that makes it "safe" to express a wacky first preference, as opposed to having only 6 choices for AM, and a stronger incentive for tactical voting?
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    As ever John Denham wrote some interesting stuff earlier about the correlation between identifying as primarily English and the Tory vote.

    If I was Starmer or whoever ends up leading Labour, I'd come out and support an English Parliament and make the case that it redresses the devolution imbalances and prioritises English issues and needs.

    I'm Welsh, and I think it's the right thing to do. Nothing to lose, so might as well be radical. Accompany with it with devo-max for Scotland and Wales and a slimmed down Westminster as Parliament of the Isles too and you might have a platform.

    What do Labour have to lose given the hole they are in?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,881

    Guessing I shouldn't mention tomorrow's Times front page where it's suggested Boris wants over a decade in power and a war on Woke then?

    It would be news if Boris said he intended to retire next year.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    “Boris will end up driving many people clinically insane. Someone they regard as little more than a circus clown gets Brexit over the line with little disturbance, gets Britain out of pandemic before everyone else, and pulverises the Labour party into existential dread”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1390791262589050880?s=21

    If Boris was the main problem for Labour it wouldn’t be so bad. In reality, they are struggling with a lot of issues that many left of centre parties are in the West, with perhaps the exception of the Democrats in America and Labour in New Zealand. I suppose at least they aren’t completely finished like the SDP in Germany or the French Socialist party.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    “Boris will end up driving many people clinically insane. Someone they regard as little more than a circus clown gets Brexit over the line with little disturbance, gets Britain out of pandemic before everyone else, and pulverises the Labour party into existential dread”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1390791262589050880?s=21

    If Boris was the main problem for Labour it wouldn’t be so bad. In reality, they are struggling with a lot of issues that many left of centre parties are in the West, with perhaps the exception of the Democrats in America and Labour in New Zealand. I suppose at least they aren’t completely finished like the SDP in Germany or the French Socialist party.
    But they are in serious trouble. Crudely put, they could try to ape the US Democrats, but for the fact that (a) there aren't enough ethnic minority voters in Britain and (b) the Democrats don't need the backing of a secessionist movement, hostile to the continued existence of the Union and voter repellent to most of the electorate, to win. Problems, problems...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Floater said:

    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?

    Collapse in Cornwall.
This discussion has been closed.