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In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

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  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    tlg86 said:

    So this is a stunning endorsement of lockdowns.

    That's the correct hot take on these elections, right?

    I suspect if the politicians decided that the voters liked lockdowns so much that we should do it for another 12 months, the results next May might be somewhat different.
    I know, but I was thinking of people like Alison Pearson and Toby Young who were so sure that Boris Johnson/Sturgeon/Drakeford would pay a heavy price at these elections for the lockdowns they put us through.
    I think people understand, but if I wa van Tam or Whitty I wouldn't be planning on a career in politics.
    Look, nobody trusts Boris, but he amuses us. Sturgeon is a pain however. I think the Scots and her party will fall out with her soon.
    Lib Dem activists will be encouraged by today's results. Much less worse than predicted or expected. I'd watch Amersham & Chesham.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    Nah.

    “There’s an overwhelming majority for independence - we hold x seats”

    “But over half the population voted for unionist parties”
    There may or may not be an overwhelming mandate, but a parliamentary mandate is something else, and its that which our system usually says is key.
    Indeed, it is only specific referenda where voting numbers overall count, and those are rare and precisely demarcated well in advance.

    Everything else (e.g. the decision to have referenda, vide Brexit) is by counting parliamentary seats. To argue for anything else is profoundly subversive of UK democracy as it is formulated.
    To conduct a referendum requires the Westminster Parliament to pass legislation. The Westminster parliament has a majority against a referendum.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,989
    Alistair said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    5m
    Edinburgh Central (Lothian) List Vote:

    SNP ~ 12476 (29.9%, +3.6)
    Con ~ 9766 (23.4%, -5.7)
    Green ~ 7604 (18.2%, +1.2)
    Lab ~ 6866 (16.4%, -0.8)
    LD ~ 3075 (7.4%, +1.4)
    Alba ~ 639 (1.5%, +1.5)
    AFU ~ 279 (0.7%, +0.7)
    Others ~ 1071 (2.6%, -1.9)

    Not what one might expect - especially for SNP and Green.

    Ed Southern

    Labour ~ 11128 (24.5%, +2.6)
    SNP ~ 11053 (24.3%, +1.1)
    Con ~ 9357 (20.6%, -8.6)
    Grn ~ 8605 (18.9%, +2.1)
    LD ~ 3373 (7.4%, +2.3)
    Alba ~ 611 (1.3%, +1.3)
    AFU ~ 250 (0.6%, +0.6)
    Others ~ 1050 (2.3%, -1.4)

    Very interesting what's happening on the list in Edinburgh.
    The SNP move to advance BAME and disabled candidates to the head of the regional lists looks to be backfiring - or was that her plan all along?

    Trouncing her old enemy, modestly advancing the Indy cause in a way that can be easily delayed for years, a bigger contingent of woke green allies to push her non Indy agenda. Have we all been underestimating Nicola’s tactical acumen?
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    So Leicester's remaining fixtures are Man Utd, Chelsea and Tottenham
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Andy_JS said:

    Not looking good for the prospects of an immediate referendum in Scotland with unionist parties on nearly 52% at the moment.

    It's not happening. Apart from the lack of a mandate, Sturgeon knows she won't win.

    Scotland = referendum free zone for the foreseeable future.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Seems to follow a pattern.
    Labour are a bit crap, so
    PC surge in the polls, then
    Tories could win?
    Sod that for an idea!
    Back to Labour.
    Repeat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987

    Boris had gone all EU on the vaccine rollout, and it was equally ballsed up here. Would the voters have acted differently?

    Discuss.

    Boris would be out of office.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,030

    So Leicester's remaining fixtures are Man Utd, Chelsea and Tottenham

    And City in the FA Cup final
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    Nah.

    “There’s an overwhelming majority for independence - we hold x seats”

    “But over half the population voted for unionist parties”
    There may or may not be an overwhelming mandate, but a parliamentary mandate is something else, and its that which our system usually says is key.
    As above, a mandate gives a victorious party a mandate to do that which they have the power to do. The power to conduct a legal independence referendum does no lie with the Scottish Parliament. Any more than Sadiq Khan winning gives him the legal power to carry out his manifesto policies on rent controls etc.
    The legalities are indeed a separate issue, but if people want to argue mandate - a fundamentally pointless excercise - I think the Indy parties have a fair point, as those with parliamentary majorities do things all the time which might well lack actual popular mandate.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Leon said:

    Conclusion


    Boris sails on, but the economy looms

    Starmer in trouble, but there's no one to take over

    Salmond's political career is over, end of

    Sturgeon survives, but with no serious claim for Sindyref2

    The Lib Dems did something but I forget already

    Plaid Cymru, sad



    For all the drama it turns out quite ho-hum. Perhaps the biggest consequence will be a short-medium-term challenge to Sturgeon's position. She now has no route to indy and she apparently can't do it through elections. So what next?




    Correction
    Boris sails on, the economy booms.
    Meanwhile back in the real world, we shall see.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    Boris had gone all EU on the vaccine rollout, and it was equally ballsed up here. Would the voters have acted differently?

    Discuss.

    Boris had gone all EU on the vaccine rollout, and it was equally ballsed up here. Would the voters have acted differently?

    Discuss.

    Yes, undoubtedly. Would he have still won Hartlepool? Quite possibly given the factors in play there. Would he have done as well in the councils? Suspect not.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited May 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Mark Drakeford 48.4 (+12.8)
    Con 17.7 (+0.1)
    Plaid 16.1 (-15.8)
    Neil McEvoy 9.5%

    Phew, that was a close run thing.

    ..
    A few weeks ago I was assured Drakeford wouldn't even win his seat.
    I said he was the real Prince of Wales.

    Another example of leader ratings hinting that the VI figures were wrong.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/03/28/the-prince-of-wales-of-peoples-hearts-in-peoples-hearts-and-votes/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    alex_ said:

    What's the general turnout picture around the country? Anecdotal evidence in London of pretty high turnout - theory being that everybody working at home made voting a lot easier, and an excuse to get out of the house.

    Low here on the island, just 37%, down on last time. The former Tory council had a poor reputation and I can only assume a lot of Tories stayed home.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Is it possible that the mass departure of EU workers post Brexit might be impacting what we think of as the base London vote?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    sarissa said:

    Alistair said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    5m
    Edinburgh Central (Lothian) List Vote:

    SNP ~ 12476 (29.9%, +3.6)
    Con ~ 9766 (23.4%, -5.7)
    Green ~ 7604 (18.2%, +1.2)
    Lab ~ 6866 (16.4%, -0.8)
    LD ~ 3075 (7.4%, +1.4)
    Alba ~ 639 (1.5%, +1.5)
    AFU ~ 279 (0.7%, +0.7)
    Others ~ 1071 (2.6%, -1.9)

    Not what one might expect - especially for SNP and Green.

    Ed Southern

    Labour ~ 11128 (24.5%, +2.6)
    SNP ~ 11053 (24.3%, +1.1)
    Con ~ 9357 (20.6%, -8.6)
    Grn ~ 8605 (18.9%, +2.1)
    LD ~ 3373 (7.4%, +2.3)
    Alba ~ 611 (1.3%, +1.3)
    AFU ~ 250 (0.6%, +0.6)
    Others ~ 1050 (2.3%, -1.4)

    Very interesting what's happening on the list in Edinburgh.
    The SNP move to advance BAME and disabled candidates to the head of the regional lists looks to be backfiring - or was that her plan all along?

    Trouncing her old enemy, modestly advancing the Indy cause in a way that can be easily delayed for years, a bigger contingent of woke green allies to push her non Indy agenda. Have we all been underestimating Nicola’s tactical acumen?
    Wut? SNP have increased their list vote.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Fenman said:

    tlg86 said:

    So this is a stunning endorsement of lockdowns.

    That's the correct hot take on these elections, right?

    I suspect if the politicians decided that the voters liked lockdowns so much that we should do it for another 12 months, the results next May might be somewhat different.
    I know, but I was thinking of people like Alison Pearson and Toby Young who were so sure that Boris Johnson/Sturgeon/Drakeford would pay a heavy price at these elections for the lockdowns they put us through.
    I think people understand, but if I wa van Tam or Whitty I wouldn't be planning on a career in politics.
    Look, nobody trusts Boris, but he amuses us. Sturgeon is a pain however. I think the Scots and her party will fall out with her soon.
    Lib Dem activists will be encouraged by today's results. Much less worse than predicted or expected. I'd watch Amersham & Chesham.
    Scots had great excuse to boot Nicola Sturgeon re: the whole "Get Salmond" fiasco.

    Fact that the did NOT may tell us something about how she's regarded by them. That is, they (or rather decisive number of them) are willing to hold their nose and give her the benefit of the doubt, and there support.

    Not saying this is eternal - look at her predecessor (or don't if you prefer). But no evidence yet that she's on the skids.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Alistair said:

    It seems to me surely as it stands the SNP have achieved a majority? Barring any losses?

    They had 63, with 65 needed for a majority.

    East Lothian is a gain. There are no SNP list MSPs there, so its a 'pure' gain. Takes them to 64, just 1 short.

    Ayr and Edinburgh Central are gains too. They would need to lose two of the three List MSPs to not have a majority. Someone (David?) said earlier he thought they'd lose one if they won two constituencies.

    East Lothian is in South of Scotland and not, as you might expect, Lothian
    So is where is West Lothian now the West Lothian question?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,030
    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    Not looking good for the prospects of an immediate referendum in Scotland with unionist parties on nearly 52% at the moment.

    If that comes to pass, I'll allow Johnson his victorious open topped bus tour of Scotland. That will be more impressive than Hartlepool.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,953
    Charles said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    Nah.

    “There’s an overwhelming majority for independence - we hold x seats”

    “But over half the population voted for unionist parties”
    half the population?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So running the numbers based on 2016 List vote totals in the South an it's actually closer than I expected but the SNP only get 1 seat and I don't see a scenario where they could sneak 2.
  • Drakeford is explained away because of vaccine bounce but Johnson is a super hero and it's completely different, such is logic
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Fenman said:

    tlg86 said:

    So this is a stunning endorsement of lockdowns.

    That's the correct hot take on these elections, right?

    I suspect if the politicians decided that the voters liked lockdowns so much that we should do it for another 12 months, the results next May might be somewhat different.
    I know, but I was thinking of people like Alison Pearson and Toby Young who were so sure that Boris Johnson/Sturgeon/Drakeford would pay a heavy price at these elections for the lockdowns they put us through.
    I think people understand, but if I wa van Tam or Whitty I wouldn't be planning on a career in politics.
    Look, nobody trusts Boris, but he amuses us. Sturgeon is a pain however. I think the Scots and her party will fall out with her soon.
    Lib Dem activists will be encouraged by today's results. Much less worse than predicted or expected. I'd watch Amersham & Chesham.
    Airdrie and Shotts must be in play, too.
    Tactical voting can make it so.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    Andy_JS said:

    Not looking good for the prospects of an immediate referendum in Scotland with unionist parties on nearly 52% at the moment.

    It's not happening. Apart from the lack of a mandate, Sturgeon knows she won't win.

    Scotland = referendum free zone for the foreseeable future.
    Unfortunately that means we get another 5 years of the same old drivel “I want a referendum!” /“no”/ “but I really want one!” / “still no” / “but it’s Scotland’s settled will!” / “once in a generation, remember?” / “if I win the next election it will be a clear mandate for a referendum, remember that!” Rinse, repeat, sigh.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    Andy_JS said:

    It seems to me surely as it stands the SNP have achieved a majority? Barring any losses?

    They had 63, with 65 needed for a majority.

    East Lothian is a gain. There are no SNP list MSPs there, so its a 'pure' gain. Takes them to 64, just 1 short.

    Ayr and Edinburgh Central are gains too. They would need to lose two of the three List MSPs to not have a majority. Someone (David?) said earlier he thought they'd lose one if they won two constituencies.

    John Curtis seems pretty sure they won't win a majority, although I don't understand his working.
    West Aberdeenshire and Galloway & West Dumfries, both Tory seats which are counting tomorrow, seem to be the key seats. On the face of it, both are unlikely to go SNP. Otherwise Nicola needs to pick up List seats which is also unlikely.

    An SNP maj seems unlikely, and the prospects of IndyRef2 are receding over the horizon. Which, strangely, suits both Boris and Nicola fine.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Useful analysis. Obvs SKS had a shocker today, and the pool interview was of Ed Miliband quality. But from R4 Today this morning onwards the official Labour line has been to say 'no excuses, we were rubbish, shattering etc', so SKS looking and sounding a wreck was maybe part of the uncunning plan.

    I do wonder whether actually SKS would be OK, even perhaps good enough to make do, on two conditions:

    1) That he led a half decent party with half a dozen true heavyweights behind him

    2) And he didn't happen to be up against a force of nature, a genius so clever that his enemies have absolutely no idea how good he is and honestly believe their own rhetoric about clowns and so on.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    Nah.

    “There’s an overwhelming majority for independence - we hold x seats”

    “But over half the population voted for unionist parties”
    half the population?
    Half the voters
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,989
    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    15/2 for me, sadly only £10 wager
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Seems to follow a pattern.
    Labour are a bit crap, so
    PC surge in the polls, then
    Tories could win?
    Sod that for an idea!
    Back to Labour.
    Repeat.
    Welsh Labour are canny, their move to keep the "Indycurious" onside marginalises Plaid, preventing a repeat of Scotland.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited May 2021

    alex_ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Is an SNP + Green majority nailed on?
    And did the Greens have a clear commitment to a referendum in their manifesto?

    https://greens.scot/our-future/independence-and-scotland-s-future
    Along with strong commitment to joining the EU - which means no pound.....
    My thought is that the question of the border with England is even more problematic than the currency question.
    "Berwick was Scottish once - and Scottish Berwick shall be again!"
    Berwick changed hands 13 times, and no matter independence, it will not be Scottish but just a very prosperous part of Northumberland if the Scots leave
    Methinks Scots infiltrators are already slipping across the Tweed & chalking "14" up on the walls . . .

    In the 1950s when I was a schoolboy living in Berwick, Wendy Wood used to regularly chalk 'Scotland' across the centre of the Border Bridge

    And by the way Scotland’s border is seven miles up the Tweed so for those seven miles both banks are in England


    1296

    When the town had been taken in this way and its citizens had submitted, Edward spared no one, whatever the age or sex, and for two days streams of blood flowed from the bodies of the slain, for in his tyrannous rage he ordered 7,500 souls of both sexes to be massacred.... So that mills could be turned by the flow of their blood.
    Account of the Massacre of Berwick, from Bower’s Scotichronicon


  • algarkirk said:

    Useful analysis. Obvs SKS had a shocker today, and the pool interview was of Ed Miliband quality. But from R4 Today this morning onwards the official Labour line has been to say 'no excuses, we were rubbish, shattering etc', so SKS looking and sounding a wreck was maybe part of the uncunning plan.

    I do wonder whether actually SKS would be OK, even perhaps good enough to make do, on two conditions:

    1) That he led a half decent party with half a dozen true heavyweights behind him

    2) And he didn't happen to be up against a force of nature, a genius so clever that his enemies have absolutely no idea how good he is and honestly believe their own rhetoric about clowns and so on.

    1) Within his control and he needs a SC that can in some sense outclass him on the media profile. Ed M is better these days, for example. Any other good media performers?

    2) I think Johnson is a clown and a terrible man but I accept I'm a minority in that - and that's not the way to win people over. Labour needs to give people to vote for them, not against Johnson. It's not going to work.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    He's absolutely bloody spectacular.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    He was a rubbish candidate!
  • Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    Andy_JS said:

    Not looking good for the prospects of an immediate referendum in Scotland with unionist parties on nearly 52% at the moment.

    Superb news. Such a relief.

    🤞
  • TresTres Posts: 2,695
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    What's the general turnout picture around the country? Anecdotal evidence in London of pretty high turnout - theory being that everybody working at home made voting a lot easier, and an excuse to get out of the house.

    Low here on the island, just 37%, down on last time. The former Tory council had a poor reputation and I can only assume a lot of Tories stayed home.
    Turnout in Bexley & Bromley was 44%.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    algarkirk said:

    Useful analysis. Obvs SKS had a shocker today, and the pool interview was of Ed Miliband quality. But from R4 Today this morning onwards the official Labour line has been to say 'no excuses, we were rubbish, shattering etc', so SKS looking and sounding a wreck was maybe part of the uncunning plan.

    I do wonder whether actually SKS would be OK, even perhaps good enough to make do, on two conditions:

    1) That he led a half decent party with half a dozen true heavyweights behind him

    2) And he didn't happen to be up against a force of nature, a genius so clever that his enemies have absolutely no idea how good he is and honestly believe their own rhetoric about clowns and so on.

    Point 1 is the big one. The labour talent pool is dire, and the few exceptions (Jarvis, Cooper) would lose their seats if there was an election tomorrow. Perhaps it's a result of how youthful Blair's '97 cohort were, or the constant Con advances? Normally by this point SoSs etc for the defeated Government would have made way for fresher replacements, instead each election the Tories get another batch of fresh new faces while Labour don't.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    Nothing but rampant positivity for Count Binface is allowed on this site.

    We have money on this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    I would say: Rachel Reid, Rosena Allin-Khan, Jess Phillips, Ed Milliband. Angela Rayner should have a proper portfolio too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    Indeed they are.

    Boris Johnson? Unless someone already beat me to it.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Poor people at the Vale of Glamorgan count after 180 hours...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E00Gx5XX0AUUavC?format=jpg&name=large
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Can think of two for sure.
    Not in Parliament though.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited May 2021

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Not an expert but Bridget Philippson would be worth a trial, though she could well be a red wall martyr next time. Angela Eagle is first rate. Hilary Benn. Jess Phillips - star quality but could easily blow up.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,816
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    Nah.

    “There’s an overwhelming majority for independence - we hold x seats”

    “But over half the population voted for unionist parties”
    half the population?
    Half the voters
    Half those who voted today, to be even more precise.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896

    Andy_JS said:

    Not looking good for the prospects of an immediate referendum in Scotland with unionist parties on nearly 52% at the moment.

    It's not happening. Apart from the lack of a mandate, Sturgeon knows she won't win.

    Scotland = referendum free zone for the foreseeable future.
    Possibly. Two issues though - I am glad you are rowing back from the preposterous argument that people voting in a majority of MSPs for independence does not count as a mandate.

    I remain hopeful that the Westminster government creates a viable solution to keep the 4 nations together. If it doesn't then Scotland and NI will go whether you like it or not.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,030

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    I have no doubt at all that Boris received a huge bounce from the vaccination programme
  • https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1390774739577319425

    So how much can we explain away the Labour lead in Wales due to the vaccines and then the same for the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Hillary Benn.

    I also like Stella Creasy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,704

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Lammy has been quite good of late iirc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    So the ideal situation with Alba was that they did enough to undermine the other Sindy parties, not benefit them - have we been so lucky?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Foxy said:

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    I would say: Rachel Reid, Rosena Allin-Khan, Jess Phillips, Ed Milliband. Angela Rayner should have a proper portfolio too.
    Rachel Reeves, i think you mean.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    He's absolutely bloody spectacular.
    Best of the Loonies (Official anyhow) since Mad Cow Girl.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    Indeed they are.

    Boris Johnson? Unless someone already beat me to it.
    And Red Hitler Hitler Hitler Ken...of the loony left.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    Oh bailey outperformed expectations for sure. Just saying he is nevertheless a grade A moron!
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    Andy_JS said:

    Not looking good for the prospects of an immediate referendum in Scotland with unionist parties on nearly 52% at the moment.

    It's not happening. Apart from the lack of a mandate, Sturgeon knows she won't win.

    Scotland = referendum free zone for the foreseeable future.
    Possibly. Two issues though - I am glad you are rowing back from the preposterous argument that people voting in a majority of MSPs for independence does not count as a mandate.

    I remain hopeful that the Westminster government creates a viable solution to keep the 4 nations together. If it doesn't then Scotland and NI will go whether you like it or not.
    Nope.

    NI's not going anywhere. No-one really wants to light the blue touch-paper.

    And all the SNP have to look forward to is the grind of 5 more years with no realistic prospect of IndyRef2.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    Indeed they are.

    Boris Johnson? Unless someone already beat me to it.
    And Red Hitler Hitler Hitler Ken...of the loony left.
    A close second, although I am not sure he ever became Prime Minister, outside of his own mind, at least
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2021

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,989

    He was a rubbish candidate!
    I refuse to believe that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    One thing that has come across from all of my friends and family, regardless of their affiliation is just how much they all think Sadiq is completely crap. I think even a marginally acceptable Tory candidate would have won.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    You're not seriously claiming poverty are you Big_G? I always had you as comfortably well-off.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Drakeford is explained away because of vaccine bounce but Johnson is a super hero and it's completely different, such is logic

    The simple truth is:

    You Can’t Shake the Drake.
  • kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    alex_ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Is an SNP + Green majority nailed on?
    And did the Greens have a clear commitment to a referendum in their manifesto?

    https://greens.scot/our-future/independence-and-scotland-s-future
    Along with strong commitment to joining the EU - which means no pound.....
    My thought is that the question of the border with England is even more problematic than the currency question.
    "Berwick was Scottish once - and Scottish Berwick shall be again!"
    Berwick changed hands 13 times, and no matter independence, it will not be Scottish but just a very prosperous part of Northumberland if the Scots leave
    Methinks Scots infiltrators are already slipping across the Tweed & chalking "14" up on the walls . . .

    In the 1950s when I was a schoolboy living in Berwick, Wendy Wood used to regularly chalk 'Scotland' across the centre of the Border Bridge

    And by the way Scotland’s border is seven miles up the Tweed so for those seven miles both banks are in England
    What an interesting & unique individual! Whatever your views on Scottish independence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy_Wood_(artist)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    One thing that has come across from all of my friends and family, regardless of their affiliation is just how much they all think Sadiq is completely crap. I think even a marginally acceptable Tory candidate would have won.
    Timidity by said marginally acceptables and bad planning and foresight by Tory HQ, then,
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Hillary Benn.

    I also like Stella Creasy.
    The sins of the father? (Not Creasy).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    So Leicester's remaining fixtures are Man Utd, Chelsea and Tottenham

    Fair chance Leicester drop like a stone after tonight’s shellacking.

    But, we’ll see.

    Tottenham’s game away against Leeds tomorrow in the pouring rain is a nasty little fixture.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Andy_JS said:

    Not looking good for the prospects of an immediate referendum in Scotland with unionist parties on nearly 52% at the moment.

    It's not happening. Apart from the lack of a mandate, Sturgeon knows she won't win.

    Scotland = referendum free zone for the foreseeable future.
    Possibly. Two issues though - I am glad you are rowing back from the preposterous argument that people voting in a majority of MSPs for independence does not count as a mandate.

    I remain hopeful that the Westminster government creates a viable solution to keep the 4 nations together. If it doesn't then Scotland and NI will go whether you like it or not.
    Nope.

    NI's not going anywhere. No-one really wants to light the blue touch-paper.

    And all the SNP have to look forward to is the grind of 5 more years with no realistic prospect of IndyRef2.

    In 2026 WLab will be standing for re-election after 27 years of Government, SNP after 19 years of Government, and in Westminster the Tories likely will be locked in until 2029 (19 years). Pretty depressing.

    The issue is that the SNP & Cons are locked in a toxic co-dependency, The stronger the SNP are - the more the Tories can say that Labour would be reliant on them (toxic to English voters), the stronger the Tories are, the more votes the SNP are.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    sarissa said:

    He was a rubbish candidate!
    I refuse to believe that.
    You've bin fooled before?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,704

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hats off to whoever on here tipped Binface to get more than 20,000 votes at a nudge over 4/1. With the more Binface friendly areas left to count he's at a solid 1%/12,100 votes.

    Been a very decent election from a betting perspective if that alone comes in.

    Is Binface the most successful "Loony" candidate ever?

    Obviously definitions are problematic.
    Indeed they are.

    Boris Johnson? Unless someone already beat me to it.
    And Red Hitler Hitler Hitler Ken...of the loony left.
    A close second, although I am not sure he ever became Prime Minister, outside of his own mind, at least
    A man dressed as a monkey became Hartlepool mayor.

    Strange things happen in Hartlepool.
  • kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Genuinely, for PB experts, who in Labour is actually a decent media performer and/or should be higher in the SC? I can't think of any one.

    Hillary Benn.

    I also like Stella Creasy.
    Stella Creasy is outstanding. Unfortunately the troglodytes won’t countenance her.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    One thing that has come across from all of my friends and family, regardless of their affiliation is just how much they all think Sadiq is completely crap. I think even a marginally acceptable Tory candidate would have won.
    Timidity by said marginally acceptables and bad planning and foresight by Tory HQ, then,
    George Osborne probably would have won if he'd run
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987
    edited May 2021

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    I don't think either have....repeated terrible approaches to covid until the vaccine rollout.
  • https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    algarkirk said:

    Useful analysis. Obvs SKS had a shocker today, and the pool interview was of Ed Miliband quality. But from R4 Today this morning onwards the official Labour line has been to say 'no excuses, we were rubbish, shattering etc', so SKS looking and sounding a wreck was maybe part of the uncunning plan.

    I do wonder whether actually SKS would be OK, even perhaps good enough to make do, on two conditions:

    1) That he led a half decent party with half a dozen true heavyweights behind him

    2) And he didn't happen to be up against a force of nature, a genius so clever that his enemies have absolutely no idea how good he is and honestly believe their own rhetoric about clowns and so on.

    Point 1 is the Round The Horne solution, which has the advantage of being the opposite of Boris. Starmer as the calm centre around who the performers orbit. If the talent were there, it would be a genuine contrast with the actual cabinet, many of whom are either mediocre (Williamson) or actively repellent (JRM). I don't know if the talent is there, it's not my party- but if it isn't, that's yet another of the terrible legacies of Jez.

    As for Point 2, today's data haven't really changed the picture. Johnson is PM until he gets bored, or self-destructs. Either of those things could happen at any moment in the next decade.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seriously though, it does seem as though Sadiq was beatable this year if a good candidate had been found.

    If Boris Johnson hadn't kicked out Rory Stewart then Stewart would have had a chance of beating Khan.
    He should run in 2024 as the Tory candidate. Would send Sadiq packing or running back to Westminster.
    Sadiq can't run for a third term.
    Why not ? Livingstone did so in 2008.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    I was pretty critical of Drakeford to begin with, but seems to have been broadly sensible despite the odd mishap here and there. Good for him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,613
    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875
  • kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited May 2021
    I know everyone said he would win easily, so it is a surprise only by scale, but is Ben Houchen really that amazing? Is anyone that amazing? A barnstorming result.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    Seen that Starmer interview / rant. If - and its a big if - he means what he is saying, then in the next few days we are going to see fireworks.

    I said earlier that Labour need to split. If he instigates a purge of the maniacs - Campaign Group, Unite etc - then he creates the split. Or will he remain frit?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    Yeah, he personally went to Boots and put in the order. Oh, I forgot Johnson invented them all too. You've started to believe you own BS.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    I think that the vaccines are the right conclusion - outside of the re-alignments overdue from 2016, a vaccine bounce is a compelling and credible narrative tying results in all 3 GB countries together.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
    Not equally. Who procured the vaccines? The ones who procured the vaccines deserve the credit.
  • https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1390778570310627333

    One for the PB experts to explain, how is this possible, what is Welsh Labour doing that English Labour is not.

    And if it's the vaccines, then it's only fair to conclude that might also be the case for the Tories. I think it is more complicated.

    Drakeford's claiming credit for the vaccines Boris's government procured.

    Starmer can't do that.

    Boris deserves to do that. His government was the one that did the work.
    You're like a stuck record. You can't credibly claim Welsh Labour doesn't deserve a vaccine boost but the Tories do. That's just silly bias.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987

    Seen that Starmer interview / rant. If - and its a big if - he means what he is saying, then in the next few days we are going to see fireworks.

    I said earlier that Labour need to split. If he instigates a purge of the maniacs - Campaign Group, Unite etc - then he creates the split. Or will he remain frit?

    He was rather shouty...quiet man turning up the volume.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Drakeford is explained away because of vaccine bounce but Johnson is a super hero and it's completely different, such is logic

    The simple truth is:

    You Can’t Shake the Drake.
    Must say that, while the phrase is appropriate today, find it a bit disconcerting.

    Due to the close phonetic resemblance between "drake" and "snake"!

    Have similar issue with "Ballot Box Scotland" which when I see it written, makes me think of something else entirely re: male genitalia . . .
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021
    South Wales West region

    2 Con (Tom Giffard,Altaf Hussain AM)
    2 Plaid (Sioned Williams, Luke Fletcher)

    2 Plaid hold
    1 Con hold
    1 Con gain from UKIP
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,987

    kle4 said:

    Always do, probably always will? Notwithstanding the many problems highlighted by the PB Welsh Brigade.
    Drakeford has had a vaccine bounce but for those of us who have suffered from the failed Welsh NHS and education, not to mention poverty, nothing will change but he is a committed Unionist, so it is not all wrong
    If you are claiming it's the vaccine wot won it for Drakey, you have apply that to Johnson. Those are rules (and you'd be right).
    Yes and Johnson was the one who organised and ordered the vaccine.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon distributed. Johnson was the one who procured it.
    And...? So you're saying Drakeford doesn't deserve a boost, or there isn't one?
    I'm saying Johnson deserves the boost.

    Drakeford is getting reflected glory from Johnson's success.
    Drakeford has done an objectively good job. He deserves a boost, as Johnson does. You're letting your bias cloud your view on this one.
    Drakeford has done a good job distributing what Boris procured for him. 😕

    All nations are capped by supply. Boris's government procured the supply. No supply, Drakeford couldn't have done a good job. 😕
    You either think Drakeford has done a good job on the vaccines, or you don't. But then it equally applies to the Tories and the SNP.

    I think they both deserve a boost.
    Not equally. Who procured the vaccines? The ones who procured the vaccines deserve the credit.
    Kate Bingham....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,704

    @PaulBrandITV
    Nicola Sturgeon tells @PeterAdamSmith that she will go ahead with legislation for a second referendum and Boris Johnson will have to go the Supreme Court if he wants to stop her.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390775379686735875

    Er, they haven't even finished counting the votes for the parliament yet.
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