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In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 7 in General
imageIn the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

The chart shows the latest Smarkets betting on Starmer’s exit date. As can be seen this was a 53% chance only yesterday and it has now moved to a 67% one.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,844
    Test
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    edited May 7
    Second...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541

    Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    I think Starmer will last the year, replaced 22 or 23.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    Pattern is rather continuing in the regional list figures we have so far - Alba on 1.3% in Hamilton, 0.8% in Orkney, 2.2% in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, 1.5% in Clydebank & Milngavie - still just some wee snapshots but not looking good for Alex Salmond's party. https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1390680324607201281
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266
    2023 is the end of the year after next, not next year surely?

    If Labour were ruthless he'd be gone by then, he's useless. But they're not ruthless so who knows.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    Scott_xP said:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541

    Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057

    If Bailey wins it will be due to Labour voters not voting far more than Tory voters actually voting.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    Shapps said there will be a review every 3 weeks of the traffic lights.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    Tomorrow's chip paper...

    The Tory donor at the centre of the Downing Street refurbishment row was a trustee of a royal charity when it bought furniture for his home and paid £1 million to his property company, The Times can reveal https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/property-firm-owned-by-tory-donor-in-no11-flat-row-was-paid-1m-by-royal-charity-while-he-was-a-trustee-br6lhq5fh
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    Have I missed much today?

    Bloody work.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    I think they may well do so this time. Everyone can see that Starmer is a dud.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Caerphilly

    Labour 46.1 (+10.7)
    Plaid 28.4 (-1.1)
    Con 17.3 (+8.4)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Unless they've just won a third General Election victory.

    Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    edited May 7

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Well, they do, but they haven’t done it since Lansbury in 1935.

    Edit - OK, Blair I will give you, but that was in government and different rules apply.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Have I missed much today?

    Bloody work.

    Binface in a dismal 9th place.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    On topic, called it earlier on this year, said Starmer wasn't up to it.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/31/starmer-not-up-to-it/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199

    2023 is the end of the year after next, not next year surely?

    If Labour were ruthless he'd be gone by then, he's useless. But they're not ruthless so who knows.

    You need a decent potential replacement though - and I just don't see one.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,390

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    SLab effect, keep changing the leader when the issues are around a coherent message which resonates with voters.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,306
    edited May 7
    Lab win Wrexham after Con win at 2019 GE.

    Same happened in Delyn.

    Poor for Con in North Wales.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 7
    Airbridge 2.0, Airbridge harder (and more complicated)... just no no no....this is a terrible idea.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Hmm, SLAB elements unhappy

    Neil Findlay
    @NeilFindlay_MSP
    Scottish Labour must:-
    - accept right to self determination
    - engage positively on the constitution
    - have a credible Devo max position
    - make it clear that a 3rd option must be on any future ballot
    - be at the table in any discussion about timing, question, conduct of any ref
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Wrexham

    Lab 37.4 (+0.3)
    Con 31.4 (+0.8)
    Plaid 21.4 (+8.5)

    Labour hold
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    Shapps said there will be a review every 3 weeks of the traffic lights.

    https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1390613234793713672
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,357
    Foxy said:

    I think Starmer will last the year, replaced 22 or 23.

    It may simply be the case of next to no real political experience, certainly in terms of campaigning, before he quickly moved up to the top job. Never been a councillor or prominent activist, required no real campaign to get elected in Camden, and during his brief time in parliament was given roles that drew mostly on his experience as a lawyer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744

    Have I missed much today?

    Bloody work.

    Shaun Bailey looking like he might win London. So not much.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Scott_xP said:

    Shapps said there will be a review every 3 weeks of the traffic lights.

    https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1390613234793713672
    Oh look another totally unfunny cartoon from the evening standard.
  • pingping Posts: 1,142

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    Not a fan of allowing non-essential foreign trips, tbh. It’s asking for trouble.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.

    SE Asia not looking good,

    https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 7

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    How many people will just fly to Faro and then drive to Spain? It really isn't far. Or to Gibraltar....even closer
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,306
    People still backing Brian Rose to win despite him being odds on to get under 1%!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Unless they've just won a third General Election victory.

    Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
    Well. It would be Wilson. Who like Blair stood down.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Scottish Sun reporting that SNP think they've won Ayr
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    FPT:

    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?

    Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    Folkestone East (Kent) council result:

    Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
    Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
    Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
    LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)

    No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214

    Folkestone East (Kent) council result:

    Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
    Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
    Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
    LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)

    No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con

    Fascinating
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    dixiedean said:

    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.

    Ms Rayner 😍
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,306
    Con hold Preseli despite Lab +9%
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,441
    edited May 7
    It does indeed look as if Binface is marginally ahead of both Piers Corbyn and Peter Gammons, but Nobel laureate and anti-political correctness philosopher Lawrence Fox seems to be on about double both of them, so far.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    edited May 7
    I just heard Starmer on the radio and felt sorry for him because he just sounded so wooden.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,021

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    Some small signs that people fear they might be retreating in important areas too though. Khan is drifting. (I think there's almost no chance that he doesn't win, but after having backed some 1.02s this morning I chickened out and layed some 1.03s - still massively onside anyway thanks to the generosity of Brian Rose)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    dixiedean said:

    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.

    It's not so much left v right. It is fish & chips v tofu.

    Even Lord Guacamole gets it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    MikeL said:

    People still backing Brian Rose to win despite him being odds on to get under 1%!

    Is there a link to the count? I am interested in Binface vs the other minnows.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Con hold

    Con 39 (-0.2)
    Lab 34.6 (+9.3)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited May 7
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?

    Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
    Government in talks to move the Champions League final to England after Turkey placed on red list

    The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'


    The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.

    Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.

    With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.

    Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.

    Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.

    Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/05/07/government-talks-move-champions-league-final-england-turkey/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Foxy said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.

    SE Asia not looking good,

    https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
    Indonesia is a disaster waiting to happen - despite government attempts many will be going home for the Idul Fitri holiday, taking COVID from the cities to the countryside...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812
    edited May 7
    Assuming he doesn't resign, what's the process for replacing Starmer again? If I remember right, someone has to trigger a VoNC, which is determined by a simple majority of MPs. He is then automatically on the ballot for the subsequent leadership election, assuming consistent rules with 2016 (and assuming he wants to be , which he quite possibly wouldn't).

    I think he still probably wins the NC vote, and comfortably, even if one is called.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    True. You can almost predict where they're going to do well from demographics. Reading, Folkestone, Colchester, Hexham, etc.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    FPT: Old King Cole: Blue tits need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed their young (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them annually.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Islwyn

    Labour 40.7% (-4.3)
    Ind 19.3
    Plaid 16.1 (-3.4)
    Con 15.9 (+7.9)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    dixiedean said:

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Unless they've just won a third General Election victory.

    Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
    Well. It would be Wilson. Who like Blair stood down.
    Going by that logic it would be either Smith or Beckett.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    Folkestone East (Kent) council result:

    Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
    Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
    Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
    LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)

    No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con

    Fascinating
    It really is
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    2m
    Stirling (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 19882 (48.6%, +0.9)
    Conservative ~ 12987 (31.8%, +3.7)
    Labour ~ 6556 (16%, -4.1)
    Lib Dem ~ 1466 (3.6%, -0.6)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,441
    edited May 7

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    Yes. Labour must be extremely thorough about finding out exactly why and how, alongside the post-mortem in the north and elsewhere.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,596
    Con hold Aberconwy
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630

    Islwyn

    Labour 40.7% (-4.3)
    Ind 19.3
    Plaid 16.1 (-3.4)
    Con 15.9 (+7.9)

    I checked, the Independent candidate already finished second in 2007 (that time with 28%).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    dixiedean said:

    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.

    It's not so much left v right. It is fish & chips v tofu.

    Even Lord Guacamole gets it.
    Nonetheless. A leader who could dine on both without suffering indigestion is necessary.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Bebington (Wirral) council result:

    Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
    Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
    Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
    LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)

    No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.

    Grn GAIN from Lab
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    In the 2019 GE they gained Putney.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Foxy said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.

    SE Asia not looking good,

    https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
    Indonesia is a disaster waiting to happen - despite government attempts many will be going home for the Idul Fitri holiday, taking COVID from the cities to the countryside...
    With increasing cases in Mongolia, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, it is hard to see China remaining unscathed. All are effectively unvaccinated, and the situation in the Seychelles, Uruguay and Chile suggests Sinovac is a dud compared to the other vaccines.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    True. You can almost predict where they're going to do well from demographics. Reading, Folkestone, Colchester, Hexham, etc.
    The intelligent play for any Labour leader, whether it's Starmer or not, is surely to figure out why they're popular in these areas and to go after them first, as they seem to be "in their column" already.

    If they want to make any progress in 2024, that seems to be the most likely place to do it, they can maybe make up to 20 gains on a very good night with that. Then Starmer or whoever can leave for the next leader to re-build the coalition still further.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Floater said:

    Bebington (Wirral) council result:

    Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
    Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
    Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
    LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)

    No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.

    Grn GAIN from Lab

    Lab + Green near on 90% of the vote lol
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871
    Scott_xP said:

    No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315

    Better that the list be restrictive than not.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Clwyd South

    Lab 43.2 (+7.7)
    Con 31.1 (+9.2)

    LD -7.3 UKIP -10.6
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,503

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
    He'll probably wire them up to the mains.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    I don't know. Some of those, you'd be taking more than two weeks anyway on the boat - so you aren't saving much time ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,357

    It does indeed look as if Binface is marginally ahead of both Piers Corbyn and Peter Gammons, but Nobel laureate and anti-political correctness philosopher Lawrence Fox seems to be on about double both of them, so far.

    The SeanT collective’s block vote has put him just ahead?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    St Helena you say?

    Ideal destination for former leaders...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,306
    Lab win Clwyd South.

    That's the THIRD seat they have won today which they lost at 2019 GE.

    Poor for Con - maybe due to lower turnout than at a GE.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    60% for Labour in Swansea East.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,441
    edited May 7

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    Either I'm imagining it, or there are strong hints of a political dimension to that list.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,021

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
    I can't imagine he'd find 20%. The obvious aspirer is Lammy. He's put himself forward for every job in the last ten years. He's also now quite far from his childish former self. I don't think he's brave enough to spark the crisis though.

    I think it's Corbyn - I think he'll re-emerge.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    People still backing Brian Rose to win despite him being odds on to get under 1%!

    Is there a link to the count? I am interested in Binface vs the other minnows.
    https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    To me it seems that in Wales, Labour has got a vaccine boost, much like the Tories.

    It remains to be seen whether it lasts for them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    Scott_xP said:

    No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315

    Does it include the US? (Also, are the rules different for fully vaccinated people?)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214

    To me it seems that in Wales, Labour has got a vaccine boost, much like the Tories.

    It remains to be seen whether it lasts for them.

    It's because you can't shake the drake
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Correct. It waits for the Grim Reaper (or the ravages of time) to do it for (or to) them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Floater said:

    Bebington (Wirral) council result:

    Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
    Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
    Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
    LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)

    No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.

    Grn GAIN from Lab

    That may be the most surprising so far.
    There has to be a local story there surely?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    Nick Eardley
    @nickeardleybbc
    ·
    16m
    SNP hold Rutherglen - the main Labour target





    Nick Eardley
    @nickeardleybbc
    ·
    17m
    SNP think they've won Ayr - but treat with a bit caution because still some recounting going on
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    SNP gain Ayr
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Any more news on the Khan vs Bailey situation in London?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Strathkelvin & Bearsden (West) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 21064 (45.5%, +2)
    Conservative ~ 9580 (20.7%, -2.1)
    Labour ~ 8510 (18.4%, -2.7)
    Lib Dem ~ 6675 (14.4%, +2)
    Family Party ~ 415 (0.9%, 0.9)

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    Either I'm imagining it, or there are strong hints of a political dimension to that list.
    Hear the South Sandwich Island are lovely this time of year. IF you are a penguin.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868
    "Con Ayr" - all-new action blockbuster starring Nicola Cage as "Cameron Go!"
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,561
    edited May 7
    Omnium said:

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
    I can't imagine he'd find 20%. The obvious aspirer is Lammy. He's put himself forward for every job in the last ten years. He's also now quite far from his childish former self. I don't think he's brave enough to spark the crisis though.

    I think it's Corbyn - I think he'll re-emerge.
    Corbyn does have a “king over the water who sensible people in the party despair about making a comeback but holds a grim sway over a lot of the base” feel to him. A bit like Trump.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898

    SNP gain Ayr

    Conservative since 2000.

    Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 81

    Con hold Aberconwy

    Yes what the hell Plaid were on earlier I have no idea.

    Can only suspect inexperienced count watchers who got excited at a sample from the Plaidest of Plaid wards.

    Poor from the Tories overall though across Wales. And even better the populist parties may well have tripped over each other on the list if there vote shares in the constituency are indicative and their supporters haven't focussed their votes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,357
    Andy_JS said:

    Any more news on the Khan vs Bailey situation in London?

    Tomorrow
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?

    Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
    Government in talks to move the Champions League final to England after Turkey placed on red list

    The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'


    The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.

    Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.

    With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.

    Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.

    Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.

    Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/05/07/government-talks-move-champions-league-final-england-turkey/
    Should be held in Wembley with 80,000 fans.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Alistair said:

    SNP gain Ayr

    Conservative since 2000.

    Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
    How many seats are you currently predicting the SNP will win?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    SNP gain Ayr

    Ah! That is one more target seat, beside East Lothian, they've had.

    Quesiton is how much those two gains are outweighed on the list for South of Scotland. The SNP had 3 out of 7 list seats at the last election, so would? lose 1, maybe 2.. But good for morale.
This discussion has been closed.