In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com
The chart shows the latest Smarkets betting on Starmer’s exit date. As can be seen this was a 53% chance only yesterday and it has now moved to a 67% one.
Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057
Pattern is rather continuing in the regional list figures we have so far - Alba on 1.3% in Hamilton, 0.8% in Orkney, 2.2% in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, 1.5% in Clydebank & Milngavie - still just some wee snapshots but not looking good for Alex Salmond's party. https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1390680324607201281
Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057
If Bailey wins it will be due to Labour voters not voting far more than Tory voters actually voting.
Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
Shapps said there will be a review every 3 weeks of the traffic lights.
And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:
Turkey Maldives Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Neil Findlay @NeilFindlay_MSP Scottish Labour must:- - accept right to self determination - engage positively on the constitution - have a credible Devo max position - make it clear that a 3rd option must be on any future ballot - be at the table in any discussion about timing, question, conduct of any ref
Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better. But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened. So. Maybe this is value. Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately. No one obvious springs to mind.
I think Starmer will last the year, replaced 22 or 23.
It may simply be the case of next to no real political experience, certainly in terms of campaigning, before he quickly moved up to the top job. Never been a councillor or prominent activist, required no real campaign to get elected in Camden, and during his brief time in parliament was given roles that drew mostly on his experience as a lawyer.
Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
Not a fan of allowing non-essential foreign trips, tbh. It’s asking for trouble.
Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.
Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
How many people will just fly to Faro and then drive to Spain? It really isn't far. Or to Gibraltar....even closer
And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:
Turkey Maldives Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better. But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened. So. Maybe this is value. Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately. No one obvious springs to mind.
It does indeed look as if Binface is marginally ahead of both Piers Corbyn and Peter Gammons, but Nobel laureate and anti-political correctness philosopher Lawrence Fox seems to be on about double both of them, so far.
There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.
Some small signs that people fear they might be retreating in important areas too though. Khan is drifting. (I think there's almost no chance that he doesn't win, but after having backed some 1.02s this morning I chickened out and layed some 1.03s - still massively onside anyway thanks to the generosity of Brian Rose)
Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better. But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened. So. Maybe this is value. Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately. No one obvious springs to mind.
It's not so much left v right. It is fish & chips v tofu.
And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:
Turkey Maldives Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
Government in talks to move the Champions League final to England after Turkey placed on red list
The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'
The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.
Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.
With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.
Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.
Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.
Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.
Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.
Indonesia is a disaster waiting to happen - despite government attempts many will be going home for the Idul Fitri holiday, taking COVID from the cities to the countryside...
Assuming he doesn't resign, what's the process for replacing Starmer again? If I remember right, someone has to trigger a VoNC, which is determined by a simple majority of MPs. He is then automatically on the ballot for the subsequent leadership election, assuming consistent rules with 2016 (and assuming he wants to be , which he quite possibly wouldn't).
I think he still probably wins the NC vote, and comfortably, even if one is called.
FPT: Old King Cole: Blue tits need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed their young (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them annually.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315
Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better. But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened. So. Maybe this is value. Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately. No one obvious springs to mind.
It's not so much left v right. It is fish & chips v tofu.
Even Lord Guacamole gets it.
Nonetheless. A leader who could dine on both without suffering indigestion is necessary.
Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.
Indonesia is a disaster waiting to happen - despite government attempts many will be going home for the Idul Fitri holiday, taking COVID from the cities to the countryside...
With increasing cases in Mongolia, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, it is hard to see China remaining unscathed. All are effectively unvaccinated, and the situation in the Seychelles, Uruguay and Chile suggests Sinovac is a dud compared to the other vaccines.
There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.
True. You can almost predict where they're going to do well from demographics. Reading, Folkestone, Colchester, Hexham, etc.
The intelligent play for any Labour leader, whether it's Starmer or not, is surely to figure out why they're popular in these areas and to go after them first, as they seem to be "in their column" already.
If they want to make any progress in 2024, that seems to be the most likely place to do it, they can maybe make up to 20 gains on a very good night with that. Then Starmer or whoever can leave for the next leader to re-build the coalition still further.
No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315
It does indeed look as if Binface is marginally ahead of both Piers Corbyn and Peter Gammons, but Nobel laureate and anti-political correctness philosopher Lawrence Fox seems to be on about double both of them, so far.
The SeanT collective’s block vote has put him just ahead?
Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.
Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
I can't imagine he'd find 20%. The obvious aspirer is Lammy. He's put himself forward for every job in the last ten years. He's also now quite far from his childish former self. I don't think he's brave enough to spark the crisis though.
No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315
Does it include the US? (Also, are the rules different for fully vaccinated people?)
Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.
Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
I can't imagine he'd find 20%. The obvious aspirer is Lammy. He's put himself forward for every job in the last ten years. He's also now quite far from his childish former self. I don't think he's brave enough to spark the crisis though.
I think it's Corbyn - I think he'll re-emerge.
Corbyn does have a “king over the water who sensible people in the party despair about making a comeback but holds a grim sway over a lot of the base” feel to him. A bit like Trump.
Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
Yes what the hell Plaid were on earlier I have no idea.
Can only suspect inexperienced count watchers who got excited at a sample from the Plaidest of Plaid wards.
Poor from the Tories overall though across Wales. And even better the populist parties may well have tripped over each other on the list if there vote shares in the constituency are indicative and their supporters haven't focussed their votes.
There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.
True. You can almost predict where they're going to do well from demographics. Reading, Folkestone, Colchester, Hexham, etc.
The intelligent play for any Labour leader, whether it's Starmer or not, is surely to figure out why they're popular in these areas and to go after them first, as they seem to be "in their column" already.
If they want to make any progress in 2024, that seems to be the most likely place to do it, they can maybe make up to 20 gains on a very good night with that. Then Starmer or whoever can leave for the next leader to re-build the coalition still further.
It is the young vote.
It would take a new leader, from a new generation to do it, but a "New Deal for the Young" is the sort of policy that worked in embryo in 2017.
The plan would be to shift the tipping point for age domination upwards, and get out the younger vote. Do it in a positive way, so as to keep as many oldies onside as possible, as many of us think the under forties are getting a raw deal at the moment.
Going after retired CDE voters in Hartlepool clearly isn't working.
And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:
Turkey Maldives Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
Government in talks to move the Champions League final to England after Turkey placed on red list
The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'
The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.
Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.
With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.
Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.
Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.
Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.
Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
How many seats are you currently predicting the SNP will win?
Ah! That is one more target seat, beside East Lothian, they've had.
Quesiton is how much those two gains are outweighed on the list for South of Scotland. The SNP had 3 out of 7 list seats at the last election, so would? lose 1, maybe 2.. But good for morale.
Comments
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541
Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage'
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057
If Labour were ruthless he'd be gone by then, he's useless. But they're not ruthless so who knows.
The Tory donor at the centre of the Downing Street refurbishment row was a trustee of a royal charity when it bought furniture for his home and paid £1 million to his property company, The Times can reveal https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/property-firm-owned-by-tory-donor-in-no11-flat-row-was-paid-1m-by-royal-charity-while-he-was-a-trustee-br6lhq5fh
Bloody work.
Labour 46.1 (+10.7)
Plaid 28.4 (-1.1)
Con 17.3 (+8.4)
Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
Edit - OK, Blair I will give you, but that was in government and different rules apply.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/31/starmer-not-up-to-it/
Turkey
Maldives
Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Same happened in Delyn.
Poor for Con in North Wales.
Neil Findlay
@NeilFindlay_MSP
Scottish Labour must:-
- accept right to self determination
- engage positively on the constitution
- have a credible Devo max position
- make it clear that a 3rd option must be on any future ballot
- be at the table in any discussion about timing, question, conduct of any ref
Lab 37.4 (+0.3)
Con 31.4 (+0.8)
Plaid 21.4 (+8.5)
Labour hold
But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
So. Maybe this is value.
Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
No one obvious springs to mind.
SE Asia not looking good,
https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.
Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)
No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.
Lab GAIN from Con
Even Lord Guacamole gets it.
Con hold
Con 39 (-0.2)
Lab 34.6 (+9.3)
The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'
The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.
Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.
With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.
Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.
Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.
Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/05/07/government-talks-move-champions-league-final-england-turkey/
I think he still probably wins the NC vote, and comfortably, even if one is called.
Labour 40.7% (-4.3)
Ind 19.3
Plaid 16.1 (-3.4)
Con 15.9 (+7.9)
@BallotBoxScot
·
2m
Stirling (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:
SNP ~ 19882 (48.6%, +0.9)
Conservative ~ 12987 (31.8%, +3.7)
Labour ~ 6556 (16%, -4.1)
Lib Dem ~ 1466 (3.6%, -0.6)
#SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315
Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)
No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.
Grn GAIN from Lab
If they want to make any progress in 2024, that seems to be the most likely place to do it, they can maybe make up to 20 gains on a very good night with that. Then Starmer or whoever can leave for the next leader to re-build the coalition still further.
Lab 43.2 (+7.7)
Con 31.1 (+9.2)
LD -7.3 UKIP -10.6
Ideal destination for former leaders...
That's the THIRD seat they have won today which they lost at 2019 GE.
Poor for Con - maybe due to lower turnout than at a GE.
I think it's Corbyn - I think he'll re-emerge.
It remains to be seen whether it lasts for them.
There has to be a local story there surely?
Nick Eardley
@nickeardleybbc
·
16m
SNP hold Rutherglen - the main Labour target
Nick Eardley
@nickeardleybbc
·
17m
SNP think they've won Ayr - but treat with a bit caution because still some recounting going on
SNP ~ 21064 (45.5%, +2)
Conservative ~ 9580 (20.7%, -2.1)
Labour ~ 8510 (18.4%, -2.7)
Lib Dem ~ 6675 (14.4%, +2)
Family Party ~ 415 (0.9%, 0.9)
Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
Can only suspect inexperienced count watchers who got excited at a sample from the Plaidest of Plaid wards.
Poor from the Tories overall though across Wales. And even better the populist parties may well have tripped over each other on the list if there vote shares in the constituency are indicative and their supporters haven't focussed their votes.
It would take a new leader, from a new generation to do it, but a "New Deal for the Young" is the sort of policy that worked in embryo in 2017.
The plan would be to shift the tipping point for age domination upwards, and get out the younger vote. Do it in a positive way, so as to keep as many oldies onside as possible, as many of us think the under forties are getting a raw deal at the moment.
Going after retired CDE voters in Hartlepool clearly isn't working.
Quesiton is how much those two gains are outweighed on the list for South of Scotland. The SNP had 3 out of 7 list seats at the last election, so would? lose 1, maybe 2.. But good for morale.