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In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Really missing Johnny Evans 🙄
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Cicero said:

    Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.

    I'm not sure that's true. I seem to recall analysis being offered earlier today suggesting the the Tory C2DE vote share had increased again in England (by 12% IIRC) but the ABC1 vote was holding rather than dropping off. If the figures are anything like that then they'll be delighted.

    I think we can expect more localised anti-Conservative eruptions in the Home Counties, in places where the London refugee metropolitan vote is going up, but in Parliamentary terms these areas are mostly held with large majorities and come the next election we may find that they're nearly all held, even if some of those majorities are significantly reduced, whilst the remains of the Red Wall are pounded to rubble.

    That's the situation that now confronts Labour - that they end up with a lot of creditable but useless second places in the South and get pummelled again in the Midlands and North. The Tories can well afford to ship one or two seats here and there in London, Hertfordshire and Surrey if they're picking up another three dozen elsewhere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    Big Jacquie Bailey tactical voting from the Tories.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?

    Two list seats in the south as they have won 2 extra constituency seats in the he south region.

    Their pick in Ed central is a pure gain as they have no lothian lost MPs.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?

    List ones, presumably.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    valleyboy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Looks like the Tories clawed one back south of Newport; this could go to the wire.

    Only one to go is Vale of Glamorgan. Knew it was right but heard Labour might hold on. Is this the one you mean.
    No
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited May 2021

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecher.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Right, is anyone following the London count, who can update us?

    Tories win WC, Bexley, and look ahead in Redbridge. Labour win Lambeth, Brent and Ealing
  • Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    Yes, they're doing worse than AFU. Neither of them will get any seats. The Greens seem to be holding up well on the list in some regions, but not all.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
    No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.

    The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.

    The contrast with the SNP should be obvious. Their entire raison d'etre is in the name: they are a Scottish nationalist party. They exist for an independent Scotland.

    No outright SNP majority will mean no mandate (legal or moral) for another independence referendum. Westminster unionists can legitimately refuse another referendum if the SNP haven't won an outright majority.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
    I thought the Scottish Green Party was quite separate from the England & Wales Green Party, like the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland vis-a-vis the Liberal Democrats.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Andy_JS said:

    Dumbarton: Lab hold by 1,483

    Fantastic result for Unionists and a big blow to SNP majority hopes
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190


    @Channel4News
    · 1h
    NEW: Exclusive polling for @Channel4News by @JLPartnersPolls shows the top reason given for not voting Labour in elections in England yesterday was Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.

    Enough excuses: the Labour leadership is to blame, it needs to stop pointing the finger elsewhere, accept responsibility and act accordingly.

    It is very disappointing.

    Should Starmer stay or go? If Labour go back to a Corbyn acolyte they lose the gains in the South without getting back the Red Wall. They become the LDs, completely irrelevant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165

    Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?

    People seem to be voting for Nanny, whoever it happens to be in their area.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Leicester City 0 - 2 Newcastle United :D
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
    No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.

    The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.

    No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Foxy said:

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
    I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.

    They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.

    When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.

    Leader ratings don't lie.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    All that stuff about 25 votes difference in Dumbarton turned out to be a big load of mince, though, clearly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Thank god we are no longer embedding tweets
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    edited May 2021

    So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?

    I think they are likely to lose two seats on the list, cancelling out two of the constituency gains? But the third gain was in a region where they had no list seats to lose. I think.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Big Jacquie Bailey tactical voting from the Tories.

    She had a massive 14% Con vote to draw on. It was why I was utterly perplexed by the idea she was in trouble.

    And she wasn't.

    What a massive cock tease that was.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    If Leicester don't win tonight then I think that either Tottenham or West Ham have it in their power to get into the Champions League (because Leicester and Chelsea still have to play each other)? It's complicated and West Ham's goal difference is a lot worse than those teams.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    Yes, they're doing worse than AFU. Neither of them will get any seats. The Greens seem to be holding up well on the list in some regions, but not all.
    I told Mike and a few other people that if it was a the choice of Galloway winning a seat or the SNP/Nats winning a majority I'd always back the latter.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Former Stroud MP David Drew elected to Gloucestershire County Council
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    I do hope so. Having now met Alex Salmond I will not be amused at him sneaking a seat - what an arrogant twat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    edited May 2021

    All that stuff about 25 votes difference in Dumbarton turned out to be a big load of mince, though, clearly.

    Do some people enjoy putting false rumours about on election results day/night just for the hell of it? Yesterday we had the fake news about a high turnout in Hartlepool.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,268
    Conservatives gain Brecon and Radnor from the LDs in the Senedd
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Phew, Adam Price holds. Felicity Evans happy again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Another IND leader sees off a Tory challenge in Sandown North
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Leicester City 0 - 2 Newcastle United :D

    When I saw Evans was injured, I but a fiver on Toon. Soyoncu and Fofana need Evans experience to play well.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    edited May 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
    No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.

    The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.

    The contrast with the SNP should be obvious. Their entire raison d'etre is in the name: they are a Scottish nationalist party. They exist for an independent Scotland.

    No outright SNP majority will mean no mandate (legal or moral) for another independence referendum. Westminster unionists can legitimately refuse another referendum if the SNP haven't won an outright majority.
    Absolutely. Running on a platform of independence means you can't count their MSPs voting for independence as supporting independence.

    Its so clear. As it what happens when England tells the Scots what they really voted for...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    Andy_JS said:

    Brecon & Radnor: Con gain from LD.

    That reduces the LibDems to zero in Wales at both the Westminster and the Assembly level.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
    No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.

    The Greens are a UK national party
    Green Party of England & Wales
    Scottish Greens
    Green Party of NI
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    So Labour is well behind and really should be doing a lot better than it is - but there are indications of where it can progress from. And that's London, the South East and Wales.

    Is Keir Starmer smart enough to do that, or will he please make way for somebody who can.

    Wales is being cut down to just 29 seats under boundary reform, and clearly when people next vote for Westminster they'll be taking part in an entirely different contest to electing the Senedd. Most of the Tories left in London are in rich or Leave-leaning areas, most of the Conservative majorities in the South East are enormous, and some of the more marginal ones are Lib Dem facing.

    Labour is now reliant on the Government making a gargantuan hash of it between now and 2024, *and* the masses of working class Labour defectors suddenly deciding that they trust their old party after all. It's not inconceivable but it's a very tall order.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161

    Foxy said:

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
    I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.

    They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.

    When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.

    Leader ratings don't lie.
    In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    3 constituencies left to declare in Wales:

    Cardiff West
    Vale of Glamorgan
    Pontypridd
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited May 2021
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
    No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.

    The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.

    No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.

    The Scottish Greens were created in 1990 when the former Green Party split into separate, independent parties, for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England and Wales. The party is affiliated to the Global Greens and the European Green Party.

    And, besides, the Greens do not primarily exist for Scottish independence. They exist primarily for Green issues.

    It's a sleight of hand to pretend that a vote for them is a cast iron vote for independence. I know that when I voted Green yesterday (and we elected a Green councillor) I'd have been bloody pissed off to be told that it was a nationalist vote. (I voted 2 x Conservative to say thank you to Boris ref. vaccines and 1 x Green)

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited May 2021
    What worries me with Starmer is that he's clearly a thoughtful leader without being a performing natural - the kind of person who should have surrounded himself with a whole array of the most fizzing and provocative advisers he could find by now, possibly from multiple wings of the party and anywhere outside, and taken the best of what he sees.

    There seems to be something inexperienced in the way he's not drawing on all this potential talent. Instead he has Mandelson and one other person apparently telling him to focus exclusively on the red wall. Clearly that's not working at all so far, as Labour is in fact still largely picking up only Southern votes dating from its more ambivalent stance on Brexit, and losing them all in most of the northern heartlands that he's been doing so much to court. He's an intelligent man, so I'm sure he 's able to find some people help him better fuse the needs of these two cultures together.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    Cicero said:

    On these numbers the Nats will be very cautious about IndyRef2... Not likely to win it and since the die hard nutters who went to Alba have evaporated Sturgeon isnt about to be bounced into it.

    From my own perspective, it could have been a whole load worse for the Lib Dems and there are several results that are quite cheering. Very tight on the List in the Scottish Parliament, but solid, even spectacular results for the held constituency seats and some progress in targets.

    Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.

    It seems that (Wales apart) the Lib Dems have been able to avoid the worst and have consolidated and even made progress in several key areas. It is a bit curates egg I admit, but TBH I think we will take that under the circumstances and look to push back next year.

    Outside of Cornwall - where they got hosed - the LibDems have performed reasonably well, especially compared to the Thrasher forecast of 150 losses.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    rullko said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
    I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.

    They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.

    When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.

    Leader ratings don't lie.
    In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
    I think the SNP pushing the both votes for the SNP worked well, plus if the wider Nats movement wanted to maximise the list MSPs they already have the vegan branch of the SNP for that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    That's at least 2 seats where the SNP candidate got enough vote share to win the 2016 election but Unionist tactical voting has saved it for the forces of darkness and evil tgisntime out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    rcs1000 said:

    Cicero said:

    On these numbers the Nats will be very cautious about IndyRef2... Not likely to win it and since the die hard nutters who went to Alba have evaporated Sturgeon isnt about to be bounced into it.

    From my own perspective, it could have been a whole load worse for the Lib Dems and there are several results that are quite cheering. Very tight on the List in the Scottish Parliament, but solid, even spectacular results for the held constituency seats and some progress in targets.

    Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.

    It seems that (Wales apart) the Lib Dems have been able to avoid the worst and have consolidated and even made progress in several key areas. It is a bit curates egg I admit, but TBH I think we will take that under the circumstances and look to push back next year.

    Outside of Cornwall - where they got hosed - the LibDems have performed reasonably well, especially compared to the Thrasher forecast of 150 losses.
    Yep. Our in house gnu said they’d lose seats to Labour.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
    No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.

    The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.

    No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.

    The Scottish Greens were created in 1990 when the former Green Party split into separate, independent parties, for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England and Wales. The party is affiliated to the Global Greens and the European Green Party.

    And, besides, the Greens do not primarily exist for Scottish independence. They exist primarily for Green issues.

    It's a sleight of hand to pretend that a vote for them is a cast iron vote for independence. I know that when I voted Green yesterday (and we elected a Green councillor) I'd have been bloody pissed off to be told that it was a nationalist vote.

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
    So did you vote fir the England green Party or the Scottish Green Party? As I suspect you voted for the former and the latter has an independence referendum as a major part of their manifesto
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    SNP supermajority now looking unlikely but you have to admire the Scottish electoral system. Turnout 64% overall (+7.5%) and 68%, 71% and 76% (!!) in the 3 key marginals where tactical voting by unionist parties denied the SNP.
    This is what you get when EVERY VOTE MATTERS


    https://twitter.com/DanKennett/status/1390755219139612684
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    We are a very divided nation.

    Scotland
    Wales
    North England
    South England

    All completely different political dynamics. Fascinating and perhaps worrisome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    LibDem hold in Parkhurst, the prison ward
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.

    With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.

    With all due respect it's for Westminster to decide.

    No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?

    Some of those gains may be unwound when the list seats are allocated.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.

    With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.

    With all due respect it's for Westminster to decide.

    No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
    They'll ignore them with or without an SNP majority, let's be honest.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Alistair said:

    That's at least 2 seats where the SNP candidate got enough vote share to win the 2016 election but Unionist tactical voting has saved it for the forces of darkness and evil tgisntime out.

    So, we are going to have to subsidise the whining, whinging Scots for a while longer.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rullko said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
    I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.

    They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.

    When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.

    Leader ratings don't lie.
    In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
    Because he has disgraced himself utterly and totally since 2017, never mind the sexual assault allegations his Russian Today programme marked him out as an utter fuckstick.

    The idea that he would go anywhere was ridiculous. Never mind the ludicrous announcemt a mere month and a half before the election. How the shitting hell was he going to organise a party in that time. It was utterly incompetent.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Cookie said:

    JACK_W said:

    Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?

    Nob beats a Nobody every time

    SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.


    He suffers from a charisma bypass
    How do you bypass a void?
    Bloody hell, it's Jack W! Not seen you in years Jack! By my calculations you are now 119 - though of course I hadn't written you off.
    It'll be kinkell, Woody662 and Stuart Penketh next.
    I enjoyed a brief return to the sunlit uplands of PB last year for the POTUS and most successful it was too. The "Old Originals" of PB never die we just saunter over the landscape like political shooting stars .. :smile:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.

    With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.

    With all due respect it's for Westminster to decide.

    No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
    "Party membership increased dramatically following the Scottish independence referendum,[13] during which it supported Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom.[14]"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Greens
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    Conservatives gain Brecon and Radnor from the LDs in the Senedd

    LDs are dead in the water in Wales.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tactical SCons.....you're welcome....


  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited May 2021
    rullko said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
    I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.

    They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.

    When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.

    Leader ratings don't lie.
    In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
    Personally I don’t think it was a particularly good look going after Sturgeon. I am far from Nicolas biggest fan, and I don’t think the Scottish government covered itself in much glory in terms of the whole Salmond affair, but it did look a bit like he was gleefully gunning for an old colleague (who also happens to be female, which could give off a whiff of misogyny) and trying to stab her in the front, when she was leading the country through a pandemic.

    I think it came across as very sour grapes and vicious. As well I suspect people saw the Alba Party less as a supermajority-winning pro-Indy “fix” and more as a way of controlling the agenda and antagonising Nicola and the SNP. If I wanted Scottish independence I don’t think I would want Alex Salmond around scheming and plotting against Sturgeon (who remains for all her faults one of the SNPs biggest trump cards).
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.

    With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.

    With all due respect it's for Westminster to decide.

    No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
    They'll ignore them with or without an SNP majority, let's be honest.
    Yes, possibly. But I think with an outright majority the case would have been really strong. Difficult to ignore, morally if not legally.

    But if there's not even an outright SNP majority then I think indyref2 is dead in the water.

    It doesn't help that polling suggests Scots don't want it anyway.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.

    When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?

    The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
    As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.

    There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
    If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
    Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.

    When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
    No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.

    The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.

    No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.

    The Scottish Greens were created in 1990 when the former Green Party split into separate, independent parties, for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England and Wales. The party is affiliated to the Global Greens and the European Green Party.

    And, besides, the Greens do not primarily exist for Scottish independence. They exist primarily for Green issues.

    It's a sleight of hand to pretend that a vote for them is a cast iron vote for independence. I know that when I voted Green yesterday (and we elected a Green councillor) I'd have been bloody pissed off to be told that it was a nationalist vote. (I voted 2 x Conservative to say thank you to Boris ref. vaccines and 1 x Green)

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
    So are you are admitting you are wrong then? The Greens are not a national UK party?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Pontypridd

    Lab 41.8%
    PC 22.4%
    Con 20.5%
    Ind 6.1%

    Left to declare

    Cardiff W
    Vale of Glamorgan
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    JACK_W said:

    Cookie said:

    JACK_W said:

    Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?

    Nob beats a Nobody every time

    SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.


    He suffers from a charisma bypass
    How do you bypass a void?
    Bloody hell, it's Jack W! Not seen you in years Jack! By my calculations you are now 119 - though of course I hadn't written you off.
    It'll be kinkell, Woody662 and Stuart Penketh next.
    I enjoyed a brief return to the sunlit uplands of PB last year for the POTUS and most successful it was too. The "Old Originals" of PB never die we just saunter over the landscape like political shooting stars .. :smile:
    I’d heard you’d started a high brow painting and decorating firm serving select Westminster clients.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    BBC finally talking about London.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.

    Jersey would be a nice spot
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548

    Foxy said:

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
    I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.

    They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.

    When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.

    Leader ratings don't lie.
    Back in 1996, incumbent Washington State Governor Mike Lowry, a Democrat and progressive idol, was unable to run for re-election because of a sexual harassment scandal. Just before he announced he was not running, his public approval rating was down to 19% statewide.

    Fast forward to 2000, when environmentalist enamored with their hero (though the woman he harassed was one of them) decided in their wisdom (?) to run Lowry for state Commissioner of Public Lands, an elected office.

    The result - the election of a Republican to the office. The only time the GOP has elected a Lands Commissioner in last 30 years.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.

    In UK territorial waters, I should hope.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Jonathan said:

    We are a very divided nation.

    Scotland
    Wales
    North England
    South England

    All completely different political dynamics. Fascinating and perhaps worrisome.

    You forgot Middle England.
    And NI.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Alistair said:

    rullko said:

    Foxy said:

    Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?

    They are even trailing Galloway's mob.

    #ScotchExpert

    It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
    I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.

    They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.

    When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.

    Leader ratings don't lie.
    In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
    Because he has disgraced himself utterly and totally since 2017, never mind the sexual assault allegations his Russian Today programme marked him out as an utter fuckstick.

    The idea that he would go anywhere was ridiculous. Never mind the ludicrous announcemt a mere month and a half before the election. How the shitting hell was he going to organise a party in that time. It was utterly incompetent.
    He also went full Corbyn over the Salisbury poisonings.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/07/salisbury-poisonings-salmond-accused-of-spinning-russian-propaganda
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    Jonathan said:

    We are a very divided nation.

    Scotland
    Wales
    North England
    South England

    All completely different political dynamics. Fascinating and perhaps worrisome.

    I live in the central Midlands. How does that fit into your scheme?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited May 2021
    IND gain Ryde NW from the Tories
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.

    If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.

    With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.

    With all due respect it's for Westminster to decide.

    No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
    Thats absolutely how you make the issue go away. "We voted for Independence". "Naah mate we've decided to set aside the MSPs for the Greens so you can't have it".

    At which point independence dies and is never mentioned again. Obviously.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Brecon & Radnor: Con gain from LD.

    That reduces the LibDems to zero in Wales at both the Westminster and the Assembly level.

    OGH will be appalled.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548

    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.

    Are Conservatives gonna play footsie with MK in Kernow? AND is Leon involved in these machinations?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Big IND hold in Ryde Appley
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    @Dura_Ace How lethal is this going to be then? Kiwi and guava halves stuff?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1390715116052701188?s=20

    Tanks are just the thing for a land-based power like, say, Germany or France but of limited use on an island with no empire left. I suppose if Scotland goes independent then declares war... but suppose Scotland is the country that inherits the tanks!
    I imagine we need a couple of hundred to credibly deter action across the central European plain?

    Of course, it requires Germany, Poland and France to do the same etc. or Russia might decide to dance in the Baltics.
    NATO needs to deter the Russian invaders. Britain as an island needs to be more concerned about air and sea defences.
    I thought we were just engaging in the French-German project?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?

    Some of those gains may be unwound when the list seats are allocated.
    Worth noting, though, that the SNP doesn't have many list seats to lose.

    In the following regions they had none:

    West Scotland, NE Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, Lothian, Glasgow, and Central Scotland

    They had one list seat in Highlands & Islands, and three in South Scotland.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Lib Dems eliminated in Wales and thrashed in Cornwall.

    Sad times.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan said:

    We are a very divided nation.

    Scotland
    Wales
    North England
    South England

    All completely different political dynamics. Fascinating and perhaps worrisome.

    I live in the central Midlands. How does that fit into your scheme?
    You mean the Middle Border? Best get your guard towers up and ready!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    Curtice...Ms Sturgeon is now looking to be in a weaker position with her party. This means she might want to push for a referendum sooner.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    edited May 2021
    Shaun Bailey has gained both Ealing&Hillingdon and Brent&Harrow on first preferences. Khan ahead after second preferences.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    JACK_W said:

    Cookie said:

    JACK_W said:

    Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?

    Nob beats a Nobody every time

    SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.


    He suffers from a charisma bypass
    How do you bypass a void?
    Bloody hell, it's Jack W! Not seen you in years Jack! By my calculations you are now 119 - though of course I hadn't written you off.
    It'll be kinkell, Woody662 and Stuart Penketh next.
    I enjoyed a brief return to the sunlit uplands of PB last year for the POTUS and most successful it was too. The "Old Originals" of PB never die we just saunter over the landscape like political shooting stars .. :smile:
    Is this...... the real JackW??


    Gawd bless you, Sir
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Have some people in London decided that the result was such a foregone conclusion that they were free to give Sadiq a kicking?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.

    A friend of mine retained his council seat in ******* Cornwall with a 75% majority. And there were several other major party candidates

    He is a phenomenal campaigner. He might end up as a Cornish MP
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    MattW said:

    @Dura_Ace How lethal is this going to be then? Kiwi and guava halves stuff?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1390715116052701188?s=20

    Tanks are just the thing for a land-based power like, say, Germany or France but of limited use on an island with no empire left. I suppose if Scotland goes independent then declares war... but suppose Scotland is the country that inherits the tanks!
    I imagine we need a couple of hundred to credibly deter action across the central European plain?

    Of course, it requires Germany, Poland and France to do the same etc. or Russia might decide to dance in the Baltics.
    NATO needs to deter the Russian invaders. Britain as an island needs to be more concerned about air and sea defences.
    I thought we were just engaging in the French-German project?
    WHAT if that Irish girls football had been a Q-bomb?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    In Surrey, with one division to declare, the Conservatives are on 46 (-15), the LDs on 14 (+5) and Others on 20 (+15) so significant reduction in the Conservative majority from 40 last time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan said:

    We are a very divided nation.

    Scotland
    Wales
    North England
    South England

    All completely different political dynamics. Fascinating and perhaps worrisome.

    I live in the central Midlands. How does that fit into your scheme?
    Good question. There is probably a street with very strange, polarised politics.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Another Tory loss in Ryde
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    IanB2 said:

    IND gain Ryde NW from the Tories

    Those Wight Tories are having a mare.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Leon said:

    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.

    A friend of mine retained his council seat in ******* Cornwall with a 75% majority. And there were several other major party candidates

    He is a phenomenal campaigner. He might end up as a Cornish MP
    Cornish Indy Ref NOW.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    alex_ said:

    Have some people in London decided that the result was such a foregone conclusion that they were free to give Sadiq a kicking?

    It does look like it. Embarrassing really when you consider what an appalling candidate Shaun Bailey is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    alex_ said:

    Have some people in London decided that the result was such a foregone conclusion that they were free to give Sadiq a kicking?

    I think he will be comfortably home with second prefs, but a warning to Labour in its epicentre.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    IND gain Ryde NW from the Tories

    Those Wight Tories are having a mare.
    Yes, NOC looks a certainty. Whether the motley mix of the three independent groups, greens, LibDem, and Labour can create an administration remains to be seen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    alex_ said:

    Have some people in London decided that the result was such a foregone conclusion that they were free to give Sadiq a kicking?

    Definitely, on first preferences. The question is how many have decided to give him a kicking on second preferences, or absence thereof.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548

    Leon said:

    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.

    A friend of mine retained his council seat in ******* Cornwall with a 75% majority. And there were several other major party candidates

    He is a phenomenal campaigner. He might end up as a Cornish MP
    Cornish Indy Ref NOW.
    Kernexit
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,982
    Andy_JS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Philip Sim
    @BBCPhilipSim
    ·
    6m
    Angus Robertson has taken Edinburgh Central for the SNP with an 11.3% majority. Now that definitely is a big win for the SNP - no list seats in the area, so it's a net gain no matter what happens in the region

    Philip Sim
    @BBCPhilipSim
    Replying to
    @BBCPhilipSim
    SNP still edging steadily closer to that majority. Still winning the seats they need to win, without losing any constituencies of their own. If (*if*) Dumbarton and Aberdeenshire West go the same way, then they can pretty much take the ball home tonight

    Tory vote held up reasonably well given Ruth Davidson's departure. Big drop in the Green vote, going to the SNP.
    Check your calculator- SGP are only 700 votes down on 2016. SCON will still be happy with the effect of their tactical voting in Ed Western and Southern.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677

    Leon said:

    England: minor party councillors, results declared so far

    Mebyon Kernow: 5
    Reform UK: 2
    Liberal: 1
    Ukip: 0

    I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.

    A friend of mine retained his council seat in ******* Cornwall with a 75% majority. And there were several other major party candidates

    He is a phenomenal campaigner. He might end up as a Cornish MP
    Cornish Indy Ref NOW.

    He's with a smaller party - I shan't name them - but he's wasted there. He'd be a brilliant MP, and I think he'd win his constituency. The Tories or LDs should recruit him
This discussion has been closed.