Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.
I'm not sure that's true. I seem to recall analysis being offered earlier today suggesting the the Tory C2DE vote share had increased again in England (by 12% IIRC) but the ABC1 vote was holding rather than dropping off. If the figures are anything like that then they'll be delighted.
I think we can expect more localised anti-Conservative eruptions in the Home Counties, in places where the London refugee metropolitan vote is going up, but in Parliamentary terms these areas are mostly held with large majorities and come the next election we may find that they're nearly all held, even if some of those majorities are significantly reduced, whilst the remains of the Red Wall are pounded to rubble.
That's the situation that now confronts Labour - that they end up with a lot of creditable but useless second places in the South and get pummelled again in the Midlands and North. The Tories can well afford to ship one or two seats here and there in London, Hertfordshire and Surrey if they're picking up another three dozen elsewhere.
So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?
Two list seats in the south as they have won 2 extra constituency seats in the he south region.
Their pick in Ed central is a pure gain as they have no lothian lost MPs.
So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
The contrast with the SNP should be obvious. Their entire raison d'etre is in the name: they are a Scottish nationalist party. They exist for an independent Scotland.
No outright SNP majority will mean no mandate (legal or moral) for another independence referendum. Westminster unionists can legitimately refuse another referendum if the SNP haven't won an outright majority.
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
I thought the Scottish Green Party was quite separate from the England & Wales Green Party, like the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland vis-a-vis the Liberal Democrats.
@Channel4News · 1h NEW: Exclusive polling for @Channel4News by @JLPartnersPolls shows the top reason given for not voting Labour in elections in England yesterday was Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.
Enough excuses: the Labour leadership is to blame, it needs to stop pointing the finger elsewhere, accept responsibility and act accordingly.
It is very disappointing.
Should Starmer stay or go? If Labour go back to a Corbyn acolyte they lose the gains in the South without getting back the Red Wall. They become the LDs, completely irrelevant.
Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
People seem to be voting for Nanny, whoever it happens to be in their area.
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?
I think they are likely to lose two seats on the list, cancelling out two of the constituency gains? But the third gain was in a region where they had no list seats to lose. I think.
If Leicester don't win tonight then I think that either Tottenham or West Ham have it in their power to get into the Champions League (because Leicester and Chelsea still have to play each other)? It's complicated and West Ham's goal difference is a lot worse than those teams.
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
Yes, they're doing worse than AFU. Neither of them will get any seats. The Greens seem to be holding up well on the list in some regions, but not all.
I told Mike and a few other people that if it was a the choice of Galloway winning a seat or the SNP/Nats winning a majority I'd always back the latter.
All that stuff about 25 votes difference in Dumbarton turned out to be a big load of mince, though, clearly.
Do some people enjoy putting false rumours about on election results day/night just for the hell of it? Yesterday we had the fake news about a high turnout in Hartlepool.
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
The contrast with the SNP should be obvious. Their entire raison d'etre is in the name: they are a Scottish nationalist party. They exist for an independent Scotland.
No outright SNP majority will mean no mandate (legal or moral) for another independence referendum. Westminster unionists can legitimately refuse another referendum if the SNP haven't won an outright majority.
Absolutely. Running on a platform of independence means you can't count their MSPs voting for independence as supporting independence.
Its so clear. As it what happens when England tells the Scots what they really voted for...
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.
The Greens are a UK national party
Green Party of England & Wales Scottish Greens Green Party of NI
So Labour is well behind and really should be doing a lot better than it is - but there are indications of where it can progress from. And that's London, the South East and Wales.
Is Keir Starmer smart enough to do that, or will he please make way for somebody who can.
Wales is being cut down to just 29 seats under boundary reform, and clearly when people next vote for Westminster they'll be taking part in an entirely different contest to electing the Senedd. Most of the Tories left in London are in rich or Leave-leaning areas, most of the Conservative majorities in the South East are enormous, and some of the more marginal ones are Lib Dem facing.
Labour is now reliant on the Government making a gargantuan hash of it between now and 2024, *and* the masses of working class Labour defectors suddenly deciding that they trust their old party after all. It's not inconceivable but it's a very tall order.
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
Leader ratings don't lie.
In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.
The Scottish Greens were created in 1990 when the former Green Party split into separate, independent parties, for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England and Wales. The party is affiliated to the Global Greens and the European Green Party.
And, besides, the Greens do not primarily exist for Scottish independence. They exist primarily for Green issues.
It's a sleight of hand to pretend that a vote for them is a cast iron vote for independence. I know that when I voted Green yesterday (and we elected a Green councillor) I'd have been bloody pissed off to be told that it was a nationalist vote. (I voted 2 x Conservative to say thank you to Boris ref. vaccines and 1 x Green)
You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.
If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
What worries me with Starmer is that he's clearly a thoughtful leader without being a performing natural - the kind of person who should have surrounded himself with a whole array of the most fizzing and provocative advisers he could find by now, possibly from multiple wings of the party and anywhere outside, and taken the best of what he sees.
There seems to be something inexperienced in the way he's not drawing on all this potential talent. Instead he has Mandelson and one other person apparently telling him to focus exclusively on the red wall. Clearly that's not working at all so far, as Labour is in fact still largely picking up only Southern votes dating from its more ambivalent stance on Brexit, and losing them all in most of the northern heartlands that he's been doing so much to court. He's an intelligent man, so I'm sure he 's able to find some people help him better fuse the needs of these two cultures together.
On these numbers the Nats will be very cautious about IndyRef2... Not likely to win it and since the die hard nutters who went to Alba have evaporated Sturgeon isnt about to be bounced into it.
From my own perspective, it could have been a whole load worse for the Lib Dems and there are several results that are quite cheering. Very tight on the List in the Scottish Parliament, but solid, even spectacular results for the held constituency seats and some progress in targets.
Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.
It seems that (Wales apart) the Lib Dems have been able to avoid the worst and have consolidated and even made progress in several key areas. It is a bit curates egg I admit, but TBH I think we will take that under the circumstances and look to push back next year.
Outside of Cornwall - where they got hosed - the LibDems have performed reasonably well, especially compared to the Thrasher forecast of 150 losses.
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
Leader ratings don't lie.
In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
I think the SNP pushing the both votes for the SNP worked well, plus if the wider Nats movement wanted to maximise the list MSPs they already have the vegan branch of the SNP for that.
That's at least 2 seats where the SNP candidate got enough vote share to win the 2016 election but Unionist tactical voting has saved it for the forces of darkness and evil tgisntime out.
You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.
If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.
The Greens have a commitment to independence clearly in their manifesto. It isn't hidden and it's well known. Any vote for them is clearly a vote for independence.
On these numbers the Nats will be very cautious about IndyRef2... Not likely to win it and since the die hard nutters who went to Alba have evaporated Sturgeon isnt about to be bounced into it.
From my own perspective, it could have been a whole load worse for the Lib Dems and there are several results that are quite cheering. Very tight on the List in the Scottish Parliament, but solid, even spectacular results for the held constituency seats and some progress in targets.
Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.
It seems that (Wales apart) the Lib Dems have been able to avoid the worst and have consolidated and even made progress in several key areas. It is a bit curates egg I admit, but TBH I think we will take that under the circumstances and look to push back next year.
Outside of Cornwall - where they got hosed - the LibDems have performed reasonably well, especially compared to the Thrasher forecast of 150 losses.
Yep. Our in house gnu said they’d lose seats to Labour.
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.
The Scottish Greens were created in 1990 when the former Green Party split into separate, independent parties, for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England and Wales. The party is affiliated to the Global Greens and the European Green Party.
And, besides, the Greens do not primarily exist for Scottish independence. They exist primarily for Green issues.
It's a sleight of hand to pretend that a vote for them is a cast iron vote for independence. I know that when I voted Green yesterday (and we elected a Green councillor) I'd have been bloody pissed off to be told that it was a nationalist vote.
You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.
If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
So did you vote fir the England green Party or the Scottish Green Party? As I suspect you voted for the former and the latter has an independence referendum as a major part of their manifesto
SNP supermajority now looking unlikely but you have to admire the Scottish electoral system. Turnout 64% overall (+7.5%) and 68%, 71% and 76% (!!) in the 3 key marginals where tactical voting by unionist parties denied the SNP. This is what you get when EVERY VOTE MATTERS
So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?
Some of those gains may be unwound when the list seats are allocated.
That's at least 2 seats where the SNP candidate got enough vote share to win the 2016 election but Unionist tactical voting has saved it for the forces of darkness and evil tgisntime out.
So, we are going to have to subsidise the whining, whinging Scots for a while longer.
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
Leader ratings don't lie.
In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
Because he has disgraced himself utterly and totally since 2017, never mind the sexual assault allegations his Russian Today programme marked him out as an utter fuckstick.
The idea that he would go anywhere was ridiculous. Never mind the ludicrous announcemt a mere month and a half before the election. How the shitting hell was he going to organise a party in that time. It was utterly incompetent.
Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
Nob beats a Nobody every time
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.
He suffers from a charisma bypass
How do you bypass a void?
Bloody hell, it's Jack W! Not seen you in years Jack! By my calculations you are now 119 - though of course I hadn't written you off. It'll be kinkell, Woody662 and Stuart Penketh next.
I enjoyed a brief return to the sunlit uplands of PB last year for the POTUS and most successful it was too. The "Old Originals" of PB never die we just saunter over the landscape like political shooting stars ..
You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.
If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.
With all due respect it's for Westminster to decide.
No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
"Party membership increased dramatically following the Scottish independence referendum,[13] during which it supported Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom.[14]"
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
Leader ratings don't lie.
In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
Personally I don’t think it was a particularly good look going after Sturgeon. I am far from Nicolas biggest fan, and I don’t think the Scottish government covered itself in much glory in terms of the whole Salmond affair, but it did look a bit like he was gleefully gunning for an old colleague (who also happens to be female, which could give off a whiff of misogyny) and trying to stab her in the front, when she was leading the country through a pandemic.
I think it came across as very sour grapes and vicious. As well I suspect people saw the Alba Party less as a supermajority-winning pro-Indy “fix” and more as a way of controlling the agenda and antagonising Nicola and the SNP. If I wanted Scottish independence I don’t think I would want Alex Salmond around scheming and plotting against Sturgeon (who remains for all her faults one of the SNPs biggest trump cards).
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next week
Bless. The SNP having picked up 3 seats vs the 2 pickups they need are already on track for a majority. And the Greens are going to pick up list seats. Which means a majority for independence. You don't want it. I don't want it. But unlike you I can count to a bigger number than just my fingers and toes.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
No they aren't. Your analysis falls down at the first hurdle.
The Scottish Greens were created in 1990 when the former Green Party split into separate, independent parties, for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England and Wales. The party is affiliated to the Global Greens and the European Green Party.
And, besides, the Greens do not primarily exist for Scottish independence. They exist primarily for Green issues.
It's a sleight of hand to pretend that a vote for them is a cast iron vote for independence. I know that when I voted Green yesterday (and we elected a Green councillor) I'd have been bloody pissed off to be told that it was a nationalist vote. (I voted 2 x Conservative to say thank you to Boris ref. vaccines and 1 x Green)
You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.
If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
So are you are admitting you are wrong then? The Greens are not a national UK party?
Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
Nob beats a Nobody every time
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.
He suffers from a charisma bypass
How do you bypass a void?
Bloody hell, it's Jack W! Not seen you in years Jack! By my calculations you are now 119 - though of course I hadn't written you off. It'll be kinkell, Woody662 and Stuart Penketh next.
I enjoyed a brief return to the sunlit uplands of PB last year for the POTUS and most successful it was too. The "Old Originals" of PB never die we just saunter over the landscape like political shooting stars ..
I’d heard you’d started a high brow painting and decorating firm serving select Westminster clients.
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
Leader ratings don't lie.
Back in 1996, incumbent Washington State Governor Mike Lowry, a Democrat and progressive idol, was unable to run for re-election because of a sexual harassment scandal. Just before he announced he was not running, his public approval rating was down to 19% statewide.
Fast forward to 2000, when environmentalist enamored with their hero (though the woman he harassed was one of them) decided in their wisdom (?) to run Lowry for state Commissioner of Public Lands, an elected office.
The result - the election of a Republican to the office. The only time the GOP has elected a Lands Commissioner in last 30 years.
Looking at the North Britain results am I right in thinking Alba is going to end up with zero seats?
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
It's almost as if Scots don't believe the old lecherous.
I have to admit when one pollster had his ratings lower than Boris Johnson in Scotland I asked had they checked the numbers and it wasn't a typo/methodology/formula screw up.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
Leader ratings don't lie.
In theory that shouldn't have sunk him, though. 15% of people reported a positive opinion of him, which in a PR system should have given him a decent chance of seats. Not really sure why it all fell apart.
Because he has disgraced himself utterly and totally since 2017, never mind the sexual assault allegations his Russian Today programme marked him out as an utter fuckstick.
The idea that he would go anywhere was ridiculous. Never mind the ludicrous announcemt a mere month and a half before the election. How the shitting hell was he going to organise a party in that time. It was utterly incompetent.
He also went full Corbyn over the Salisbury poisonings.
You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.
If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
With all due respect, that isn't for you to decide.
With all due respect it's for Westminster to decide.
No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
Thats absolutely how you make the issue go away. "We voted for Independence". "Naah mate we've decided to set aside the MSPs for the Greens so you can't have it".
At which point independence dies and is never mentioned again. Obviously.
Tanks are just the thing for a land-based power like, say, Germany or France but of limited use on an island with no empire left. I suppose if Scotland goes independent then declares war... but suppose Scotland is the country that inherits the tanks!
I imagine we need a couple of hundred to credibly deter action across the central European plain?
Of course, it requires Germany, Poland and France to do the same etc. or Russia might decide to dance in the Baltics.
NATO needs to deter the Russian invaders. Britain as an island needs to be more concerned about air and sea defences.
I thought we were just engaging in the French-German project?
So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?
Some of those gains may be unwound when the list seats are allocated.
Worth noting, though, that the SNP doesn't have many list seats to lose.
In the following regions they had none:
West Scotland, NE Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, Lothian, Glasgow, and Central Scotland
They had one list seat in Highlands & Islands, and three in South Scotland.
Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
Nob beats a Nobody every time
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.
He suffers from a charisma bypass
How do you bypass a void?
Bloody hell, it's Jack W! Not seen you in years Jack! By my calculations you are now 119 - though of course I hadn't written you off. It'll be kinkell, Woody662 and Stuart Penketh next.
I enjoyed a brief return to the sunlit uplands of PB last year for the POTUS and most successful it was too. The "Old Originals" of PB never die we just saunter over the landscape like political shooting stars ..
Tanks are just the thing for a land-based power like, say, Germany or France but of limited use on an island with no empire left. I suppose if Scotland goes independent then declares war... but suppose Scotland is the country that inherits the tanks!
I imagine we need a couple of hundred to credibly deter action across the central European plain?
Of course, it requires Germany, Poland and France to do the same etc. or Russia might decide to dance in the Baltics.
NATO needs to deter the Russian invaders. Britain as an island needs to be more concerned about air and sea defences.
I thought we were just engaging in the French-German project?
WHAT if that Irish girls football had been a Q-bomb?
In Surrey, with one division to declare, the Conservatives are on 46 (-15), the LDs on 14 (+5) and Others on 20 (+15) so significant reduction in the Conservative majority from 40 last time.
Yes, NOC looks a certainty. Whether the motley mix of the three independent groups, greens, LibDem, and Labour can create an administration remains to be seen.
Philip Sim @BBCPhilipSim · 6m Angus Robertson has taken Edinburgh Central for the SNP with an 11.3% majority. Now that definitely is a big win for the SNP - no list seats in the area, so it's a net gain no matter what happens in the region
Philip Sim @BBCPhilipSim Replying to @BBCPhilipSim SNP still edging steadily closer to that majority. Still winning the seats they need to win, without losing any constituencies of their own. If (*if*) Dumbarton and Aberdeenshire West go the same way, then they can pretty much take the ball home tonight
Tory vote held up reasonably well given Ruth Davidson's departure. Big drop in the Green vote, going to the SNP.
Check your calculator- SGP are only 700 votes down on 2016. SCON will still be happy with the effect of their tactical voting in Ed Western and Southern.
England: minor party councillors, results declared so far
Mebyon Kernow: 5 Reform UK: 2 Liberal: 1 Ukip: 0
I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.
A friend of mine retained his council seat in ******* Cornwall with a 75% majority. And there were several other major party candidates
He is a phenomenal campaigner. He might end up as a Cornish MP
Cornish Indy Ref NOW.
He's with a smaller party - I shan't name them - but he's wasted there. He'd be a brilliant MP, and I think he'd win his constituency. The Tories or LDs should recruit him
Comments
They are even trailing Galloway's mob.
#ScotchExpert
I think we can expect more localised anti-Conservative eruptions in the Home Counties, in places where the London refugee metropolitan vote is going up, but in Parliamentary terms these areas are mostly held with large majorities and come the next election we may find that they're nearly all held, even if some of those majorities are significantly reduced, whilst the remains of the Red Wall are pounded to rubble.
That's the situation that now confronts Labour - that they end up with a lot of creditable but useless second places in the South and get pummelled again in the Midlands and North. The Tories can well afford to ship one or two seats here and there in London, Hertfordshire and Surrey if they're picking up another three dozen elsewhere.
Their pick in Ed central is a pure gain as they have no lothian lost MPs.
When there is a majority of seats elected for independence will you be arguing that vote shares say there isn't? Piss funny mate, keep it up.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
The contrast with the SNP should be obvious. Their entire raison d'etre is in the name: they are a Scottish nationalist party. They exist for an independent Scotland.
No outright SNP majority will mean no mandate (legal or moral) for another independence referendum. Westminster unionists can legitimately refuse another referendum if the SNP haven't won an outright majority.
Should Starmer stay or go? If Labour go back to a Corbyn acolyte they lose the gains in the South without getting back the Red Wall. They become the LDs, completely irrelevant.
They said they were way ahead of me, and it had been quadruple checked.
When other pollsters started showing a similar thing I knew Alba were in for a painful night.
Leader ratings don't lie.
And she wasn't.
What a massive cock tease that was.
Its so clear. As it what happens when England tells the Scots what they really voted for...
Scottish Greens
Green Party of NI
Labour is now reliant on the Government making a gargantuan hash of it between now and 2024, *and* the masses of working class Labour defectors suddenly deciding that they trust their old party after all. It's not inconceivable but it's a very tall order.
Cardiff West
Vale of Glamorgan
Pontypridd
And, besides, the Greens do not primarily exist for Scottish independence. They exist primarily for Green issues.
It's a sleight of hand to pretend that a vote for them is a cast iron vote for independence. I know that when I voted Green yesterday (and we elected a Green councillor) I'd have been bloody pissed off to be told that it was a nationalist vote. (I voted 2 x Conservative to say thank you to Boris ref. vaccines and 1 x Green)
You want independence? You vote for the Scottish National Party.
If they haven't won an outright majority it's over.
There seems to be something inexperienced in the way he's not drawing on all this potential talent. Instead he has Mandelson and one other person apparently telling him to focus exclusively on the red wall. Clearly that's not working at all so far, as Labour is in fact still largely picking up only Southern votes dating from its more ambivalent stance on Brexit, and losing them all in most of the northern heartlands that he's been doing so much to court. He's an intelligent man, so I'm sure he 's able to find some people help him better fuse the needs of these two cultures together.
The Greens have a commitment to independence clearly in their manifesto. It isn't hidden and it's well known. Any vote for them is clearly a vote for independence.
This is what you get when EVERY VOTE MATTERS
https://twitter.com/DanKennett/status/1390755219139612684
Scotland
Wales
North England
South England
All completely different political dynamics. Fascinating and perhaps worrisome.
No SNP majority? They will ignore their calls for a vote.
The idea that he would go anywhere was ridiculous. Never mind the ludicrous announcemt a mere month and a half before the election. How the shitting hell was he going to organise a party in that time. It was utterly incompetent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Greens
I think it came across as very sour grapes and vicious. As well I suspect people saw the Alba Party less as a supermajority-winning pro-Indy “fix” and more as a way of controlling the agenda and antagonising Nicola and the SNP. If I wanted Scottish independence I don’t think I would want Alex Salmond around scheming and plotting against Sturgeon (who remains for all her faults one of the SNPs biggest trump cards).
But if there's not even an outright SNP majority then I think indyref2 is dead in the water.
It doesn't help that polling suggests Scots don't want it anyway.
Lab 41.8%
PC 22.4%
Con 20.5%
Ind 6.1%
Left to declare
Cardiff W
Vale of Glamorgan
Mebyon Kernow: 5
Reform UK: 2
Liberal: 1
Ukip: 0
I believe that RefUK and Ukip both asked to be buried at sea.
Fast forward to 2000, when environmentalist enamored with their hero (though the woman he harassed was one of them) decided in their wisdom (?) to run Lowry for state Commissioner of Public Lands, an elected office.
The result - the election of a Republican to the office. The only time the GOP has elected a Lands Commissioner in last 30 years.
And NI.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/07/salisbury-poisonings-salmond-accused-of-spinning-russian-propaganda
At which point independence dies and is never mentioned again. Obviously.
OGH will be appalled.
The SNP must therefore argue that there is a moral, democratic argument for another referendum.
That’s why the share is important.
It shows that the SNP’s argument does not (quite) stack up.
In the following regions they had none:
West Scotland, NE Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, Lothian, Glasgow, and Central Scotland
They had one list seat in Highlands & Islands, and three in South Scotland.
Sad times.
Gawd bless you, Sir
He is a phenomenal campaigner. He might end up as a Cornish MP
He's with a smaller party - I shan't name them - but he's wasted there. He'd be a brilliant MP, and I think he'd win his constituency. The Tories or LDs should recruit him