In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com
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BBC Wales' Felicity Evans seems very angry after Leanne's defeat in Rhonda. She is spitting bullets.1
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What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.0 -
You keep saying that but it isn't a slam dunk. It will be one for the courts.Black_Rook said:
The constitution is a devolved matter. Johnson will ignore the Scottish Parliament. We all know this.Carnyx said:
Parliamentary vote is what counts. Exactly as with Brexit at Westminster - Topries were a minoriuty and needed the Labour rebels and DUP.Cocky_cockney said:
Yep but I don't think that's sufficient. This was an SNP bid to win a mandate for indyref2. If they haven't won an outright majority then the union holds.Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
Scotland is stuck in its current rut until people either get bored of banging on about independence for decades on end and give up, or an enfeebled left-wing opposition at Westminster finally manages to scrape together enough votes in England and Wales to put the SNP into bat as the balancing power in the Commons. I'm imagining that the latter will occur, but Lord alone knows how many years you'll be waiting for it.0 -
Cardiff Central: Lab hold
Lab +7.5
LD -19.10 -
Let him blather on how he wants. We all know the hypocrisy.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.0 -
No, Wales is not like that at all. Wales is not like Scotland. There is probably a stronger cultural element, certainly a stronger language which, by the way, limits Plaid support, and there are transport problems within Wales and between Wales and England. And since the pro-independence Scots do not believe they are financially dependent on England, that country does not fit your analysis either.Black_Rook said:
That kind of vote in Wales is a bit like the muddy middle (pro-SNP, No to independence) vote in Scotland. Desperate to be rid of the English but like our money too much.ydoethur said:
Because it isn’t, whatever it feels like.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why Plaid are doing badly. It does feel as though the independence mood is growing. There are now several alternative options with Gwlad and Neil McEvoy's Propel as pro-independence.AndreaParma_82 said:Rhondda
Elizabeth Buffy Williams (Labour) 54.7 (+18.8)
Leanne Wood (Plaid) 31.3 (-19.3)
Labour gain
The majority of pro-independence people in Wales see it as a vague aspiration, that might be quite nice in the future. When several rather crucial issues have been sorted out.
If they were both net contributors to the Treasury they'd be out the exit door like a shot. There's little interest left in Britain but plenty of interest in not paying more tax.
As an aside, I suspect Salmond calling his party Alba was a mistake as it has unwanted cultural implications. The SNP is what it says on the tin. Alba falsely advertises the Highlands and Islands and the language. It does not say Scotland.
Oh, and Brexit was another independence vote not decided on raw economics.1 -
He suffers from a charisma bypassbigjohnowls said:
Nob beats a Nobody every timeMexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.0 -
What makes you say Mark Drakeford is a nob?Mexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
I assume you didnt vote for him.0 -
So far, at least, pro-Indy vote share is down against 16. If that holds, that puts several holes in the idea that the settled “will of the people” is for Indy.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.4 -
The fact is that the SNP went big on a mandate for indyref2, which was always going to be a legal stretch.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
Without the absolute unequivocal backing of the Scottish people Boris Johnson is perfectly within his rights to ignore them.0 -
What does it matter? Nicola won't call a referendum if she isn't likely to win it and if she does, then there's nothing to fear.Gardenwalker said:
So far, at least, pro-Indy vote share is down against 16. If that holds, that puts several holes in the idea that the settled “will of the people” is for Indy.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
It's crazy.0 -
This is why Tony Blair was perfect for Labour. A Scot, with a northern seat, who sounded like a southerner.Cocky_cockney said:
No I think you're wrong there Robert.rcs1000 said:
Except that risks them losing their metropolitan vote to the LibDems or the Greens, quite possibly letting the Conservatives in in those seats.Cocky_cockney said:
David Miliband might have been the answer 15 years ago. He isn't now.FrankBooth said:
Doesn't Miliband's role with the International Rescue Mission mean he can be deployed at a moment's notice?rcs1000 said:
At least Burnham is in the UK.MaxPB said:
He's not in parliament. May as well bet on David Miliband.Gardenwalker said:I wonder how Andy Burnham has done in Manchester?
A good performance - against national trend - might give him a strong base to launch a Kier ouster.
They need a northerner who is unashamed to be patriotic and who doesn't kow tow to the woke metropolitans.
.
Whereas the southern metropolitan luvvies will put up with a northerner Labour leader, as they have for the past century, the opposite is not true.
It's part of the patronising woke metropolitan agenda that they will tolerate a good old northerner in charge of the party so long as he or she is basically coming out with the right kind of policies. They'll put up with a bit of patriotism and they know they've lost the EU so, for them, it's no longer an issue.2 -
"the southern metropolitan luvvies will put up with a northerner Labour leader, as they have for the past century, the opposite is not true."Cocky_cockney said:
No I think you're wrong there Robert.rcs1000 said:
Except that risks them losing their metropolitan vote to the LibDems or the Greens, quite possibly letting the Conservatives in in those seats.Cocky_cockney said:
David Miliband might have been the answer 15 years ago. He isn't now.FrankBooth said:
Doesn't Miliband's role with the International Rescue Mission mean he can be deployed at a moment's notice?rcs1000 said:
At least Burnham is in the UK.MaxPB said:
He's not in parliament. May as well bet on David Miliband.Gardenwalker said:I wonder how Andy Burnham has done in Manchester?
A good performance - against national trend - might give him a strong base to launch a Kier ouster.
They need a northerner who is unashamed to be patriotic and who doesn't kow tow to the woke metropolitans.
.
Whereas the southern metropolitan luvvies will put up with a northerner Labour leader, as they have for the past century, the opposite is not true.
It's part of the patronising woke metropolitan agenda that they will tolerate a good old northerner in charge of the party so long as he or she is basically coming out with the right kind of policies. They'll put up with a bit of patriotism and they know they've lost the EU so, for them, it's no longer an issue.
Sorta like how the Democrats retained much of their traditional, but shifting base with Southern White voters in 1976 AND in 1992, by nominating a Southerner, Jimmy Carter and then Bill Clinton. Who clearly won votes south of the Mason-Dixon line that Yankees like Walter Mondale and Mike Dukakis could not.
Of course this did NOT work for Al Gore in 2000 who would have been President IF he'd won either Tennessee (his home state) or West Virginia (economically northern but culturally southern).0 -
Wales, in large parts, is quasi-English, in a way that is not true of Scotland.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, Wales is not like that at all. Wales is not like Scotland. There is probably a stronger cultural element, certainly a stronger language which, by the way, limits Plaid support, and there are transport problems within Wales and between Wales and England. And since the pro-independence Scots do not believe they are financially dependent on England, that country does not fit your analysis either.Black_Rook said:
That kind of vote in Wales is a bit like the muddy middle (pro-SNP, No to independence) vote in Scotland. Desperate to be rid of the English but like our money too much.ydoethur said:
Because it isn’t, whatever it feels like.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why Plaid are doing badly. It does feel as though the independence mood is growing. There are now several alternative options with Gwlad and Neil McEvoy's Propel as pro-independence.AndreaParma_82 said:Rhondda
Elizabeth Buffy Williams (Labour) 54.7 (+18.8)
Leanne Wood (Plaid) 31.3 (-19.3)
Labour gain
The majority of pro-independence people in Wales see it as a vague aspiration, that might be quite nice in the future. When several rather crucial issues have been sorted out.
If they were both net contributors to the Treasury they'd be out the exit door like a shot. There's little interest left in Britain but plenty of interest in not paying more tax.
As an aside, I suspect Salmond calling his party Alba was a mistake as it has unwanted cultural implications. The SNP is what it says on tin. Alba falsely advertises the Highlands and Islands and the language. It does not say Scotland.
Oh, and Brexit was another independence vote not decided on raw economics.1 -
Technically Boris Johnson has no say in the matter. The Scottish Parliament passes a bill and then the government can refer it to the courts for them to decide if it's ultra vires.Cocky_cockney said:
The fact is that the SNP went big on a mandate for indyref2, which was always going to be a legal stretch.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
Without the absolute unequivocal backing of the Scottish people Boris Johnson is perfectly within his rights to ignore them.
Of course Boris Johnson could ignore the result of a second ref but the actual referendum itself is not in his hands.0 -
Has Neil Hamilton conceded defeat yet?0
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So when then parties pledged to independence win a clear majority that unequivocal backing will be there. I don't want it to happen, have been campaigning for the LibDems but it IS happening.Cocky_cockney said:
The fact is that the SNP went big on a mandate for indyref2, which was always going to be a legal stretch.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
Without the absolute unequivocal backing of the Scottish people Boris Johnson is perfectly within his rights to ignore them.0 -
Does he ever?Gardenwalker said:Has Neil Hamilton conceded defeat yet?
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How do you bypass a void?squareroot2 said:
He suffers from a charisma bypassbigjohnowls said:
Nob beats a Nobody every timeMexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.0 -
In this case the courts don't matter. The courts interpret law, they don't make it. They can't force the Commons to grant a Section 30 order, and without it a valid referendum can't be held.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying that but it isn't a slam dunk. It will be one for the courts.Black_Rook said:
The constitution is a devolved matter. Johnson will ignore the Scottish Parliament. We all know this.Carnyx said:
Parliamentary vote is what counts. Exactly as with Brexit at Westminster - Topries were a minoriuty and needed the Labour rebels and DUP.Cocky_cockney said:
Yep but I don't think that's sufficient. This was an SNP bid to win a mandate for indyref2. If they haven't won an outright majority then the union holds.Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
Scotland is stuck in its current rut until people either get bored of banging on about independence for decades on end and give up, or an enfeebled left-wing opposition at Westminster finally manages to scrape together enough votes in England and Wales to put the SNP into bat as the balancing power in the Commons. I'm imagining that the latter will occur, but Lord alone knows how many years you'll be waiting for it.
There's been some speculation about a vote without Westminster approval, and whether that might possibly survive a court challenge if it were deemed an explicitly political act rather than the formal vote mandated by law, but in that case the Unionist parties can just tell their voters to ignore it and, once again, the UK Government can happily disregard the result.
The Scottish Parliament is a subsidiary, not a sovereign, body and cannot aggregate unto itself powers not granted to it by the UK Parliament. It can't attempt to hold an unsanctioned referendum and then demand separation against the will of the UK Parliament, any more than it can float a rival currency or set up its own army. There are only two ways around this: find the ways and means to persuade the UK Parliament to agree to a referendum on terms acceptable to it, or a revolution.0 -
Bexley & Bromley:
Con 52.64%
Lab 25.46%
Green 11.61%
LD 7.15%
REFUK 3.15%
Changes:
Con +6.5%
Lab +1.4%
Green +4.9%
LD +0.8%
Swing, Lab to Con: 4.0%
UKIP were on 16.1%1 -
Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.0
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More or less. He said he's only 72 so could come back in the future.Gardenwalker said:Has Neil Hamilton conceded defeat yet?
0 -
https://twitter.com/seanwhelanRTE/status/1390748140924542976?s=19
Baillie's held it then no SNP majority.0 -
BBC projected share:
Con 36%
Lab 29%
LD 17%
Oth 18%1 -
I voted for Jane Hutt.valleyboy said:
What makes you say Mark Drakeford is a nob?Mexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
I assume you didnt vote for him.0 -
But that isn't true as far as I understand itBlack_Rook said:
In this case the courts don't matter. The courts interpret law, they don't make it. They can't force the Commons to grant a Section 30 order, and without it a valid referendum can't be held.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying that but it isn't a slam dunk. It will be one for the courts.Black_Rook said:
The constitution is a devolved matter. Johnson will ignore the Scottish Parliament. We all know this.Carnyx said:
Parliamentary vote is what counts. Exactly as with Brexit at Westminster - Topries were a minoriuty and needed the Labour rebels and DUP.Cocky_cockney said:
Yep but I don't think that's sufficient. This was an SNP bid to win a mandate for indyref2. If they haven't won an outright majority then the union holds.Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
Scotland is stuck in its current rut until people either get bored of banging on about independence for decades on end and give up, or an enfeebled left-wing opposition at Westminster finally manages to scrape together enough votes in England and Wales to put the SNP into bat as the balancing power in the Commons. I'm imagining that the latter will occur, but Lord alone knows how many years you'll be waiting for it.
There's been some speculation about a vote without Westminster approval, and whether that might possibly survive a court challenge if it were deemed an explicitly political act rather than the formal vote mandated by law, but in that case the Unionist parties can just tell their voters to ignore it and, once again, the UK Government can happily disregard the result.
The Scottish Parliament is a subsidiary, not a sovereign, body and cannot aggregate unto itself powers not granted to it by the UK Parliament. It can't attempt to hold an unsanctioned referendum and then demand separation against the will of the UK Parliament, any more than it can float a rival currency or set up its own army. There are only two ways around this: find the ways and means to persuade the UK Parliament to agree to a referendum on terms acceptable to it, or a revolution.
The Scottish Parliament could pass a bill for a 2nd ref. They don't need a Section 30 order to do that.
HMG, if it thinks the Scottish Parliament has done something they don't have the power to do, can refer the bill to the courts to determine. They can't "veto" it as such under the current regime unless they legislate.
Of course the referendum, if allowed, would be advisory anyway, as is the case with almost every single British referendum in history. It would in itself have no legal effect.0 -
We got within under a thousand.NickPalmer said:
A former LibDem who switche dto us after the implosion was telling me lurid tales about it, including wife-swapping?! He and his wife joined when they moved to the area but found the atmsphere utterly unwelcoming with the clique only interested in each other, so they switched to us. In fairness, though, Paul Follows has revived them - he got a 35% swing today. They are still a narrow base - only half a dozen really active people, as far as I can tell - but they've built big personal votes. I don't think the Tories will ever lose the Parliamentary seat, though, unless the boundaries change.kjh said:
I have a lot of history with SW Surrey. When we won Guildford it was a joint campaign with SW Surrey. In fact SW Surrey was the main target of the two so I spent a lot of time there. In addition when the LDs imploded there I had to preside over the expulsion of two of the councilors from the party. I just wanted to bang their heads together. It was the start of the end of this being a top LD target.
Just to note the Guildford Resident are a mix of politics including Tories. They only hate the Guildford Conservatives not Conservatives in general.0 -
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?RochdalePioneers said:Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too1 -
So within the MoE of the magic 6 point lead.Andy_JS said:BBC projected share:
Con 36%
Lab 29%
LD 17%
Oth 18%0 -
I doubt London and some of Labour's new Southern areas will put with the overtly pro-Brexit and somewhat more monocultural mood music that northern constituencies want, though. This is the centre of massive cultural problem Labour have. The Tories have in possibly created a doomsday machine to permanently divide the left with Brexit, and have just fused the newer culture wars with it as another layer of help in the bargain.Cocky_cockney said:
No I think you're wrong there Robert.rcs1000 said:
Except that risks them losing their metropolitan vote to the LibDems or the Greens, quite possibly letting the Conservatives in in those seats.Cocky_cockney said:
David Miliband might have been the answer 15 years ago. He isn't now.FrankBooth said:
Doesn't Miliband's role with the International Rescue Mission mean he can be deployed at a moment's notice?rcs1000 said:
At least Burnham is in the UK.MaxPB said:
He's not in parliament. May as well bet on David Miliband.Gardenwalker said:I wonder how Andy Burnham has done in Manchester?
A good performance - against national trend - might give him a strong base to launch a Kier ouster.
They need a northerner who is unashamed to be patriotic and who doesn't kow tow to the woke metropolitans.
.
Whereas the southern metropolitan luvvies will put up with a northerner Labour leader, as they have for the past century, the opposite is not true.
It's part of the patronising woke metropolitan agenda that they will tolerate a good old northerner in charge of the party so long as he or she is basically coming out with the right kind of policies. They'll put up with a bit of patriotism and they know they've lost the EU so, for them, it's no longer an issue.1 -
0
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Ealing & Hillingdon being declared...0
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We need to talk about Mark Drakeford succeeding Starmer as labour leader before the GE.
Actually that might be my piece for the weekend.0 -
Tories are VERY partial in the (rare) propensity for proportionality.RochdalePioneers said:
What does vote share matter? Seats are what count and they're heading towards 80 seats between them.HYUFD said:
SNP + Green + Alba combined list voteshare is 48%, Conservative, Labour and LD combined voteshare on the list is 49%Carnyx said:
Greens also have it in their manifesto.Cocky_cockney said:
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then I think that might be curtains for indyref2.Andy_JS said:IMPORTANT NEWS
John Curtis: Tories holding Eastwood means the chances of an SNP majority have significant declined.
They like it when it (occasionally) suits them. And don't when it (usually) does not.
Not much different from any other party, really.2 -
Pleased but surprised with that. I always feel the area will succumb to metropolitan liberal nonsense with new arrivals from Dulwich and Peckham. Thankfully that looks a long way off.Andy_JS said:Bexley & Bromley:
Con 52.64%
Lab 25.46%
Green 11.61%
LD 7.15%
REFUK 3.15%
Changes:
Con +6.5%
Lab +1.4%
Green +4.9%
LD +0.8%
Swing, Lab to Con: 4.0%
UKIP were on 16.1%1 -
Yes Labour reckon they've held Dumbarton0
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I do not see the comparison with Hague; Howard maybe. Hague had some good jokes but a misguided political campaign against the Euro which was already ruled out by Labour, a ludicrous PR campaign (baseball caps and roller-coasters where Starmer has flags and knees) and a Potemkin-like party.moonshine said:
This didn’t work for William Hague, who had substantially more wit and spontaneity than Starmer does. There’s just no way his target voter base is going to be turned on even slightly, by the oh so clever barrister tricks and niggles that he comes up with. Starmer’s leadership is actually beyond repair, if indeed it ever stood a chance after the shambles of his time as Brexit Shadow Sec.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Starmer's platform must be Parliament. He needs to use his forensic legal skills to nail the aura of sleaze and corruption around Number 10, and Boris's tenuous relationship with the truth. He has six questions each week to do so.numbertwelve said:
Labour are really going to struggle to get Boris out over wallpapergate or anything else that came out pre-election now. The Tories will be hanging onto Boris for dear life given these results.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Starmer needs to do two things with the sleaze allegations swirling round Number 10. First, he needs to nail Boris to the wall so that he must resign. More importantly though, he needs to get the message across to voters that the issue is corruption not wallpaper. The evidence of the yesterday's election results is that he has failed on the politics, even if he can eventually topple the Prime Minister.Scott_xP said:Tomorrow's chip paper...
The Tory donor at the centre of the Downing Street refurbishment row was a trustee of a royal charity when it bought furniture for his home and paid £1 million to his property company, The Times can reveal https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/property-firm-owned-by-tory-donor-in-no11-flat-row-was-paid-1m-by-royal-charity-while-he-was-a-trustee-br6lhq5fh
The Times story is interesting but is paywalled. What can be seen looks like a loose, easy-come culture, even if there is nothing legally wrong.
There was also a suggestion a couple of days ago that Boris's brother Jo had landed a job with Dyson which if nothing else might explain how they knew each other's mobile numbers.
They could still wound him if the drip-drip continues (which could help them in the next elections/2024), but as for anything else, the office of PM is self regulating (save for the boys in blue turning up at Number 10 and taking an incumbent away!) and the pressure to resign goes hand in hand with political pressure, and labours political credibility has taken yet another blow. I don’t think they’ve got the strength to force a PM out of office now, particularly one who has just had a decent night at the polls.
Labour should start again or they’re going to waste another 18-24 months, by which time BJ will be limbering up for a snap election.
Starmer's initial target on lies, sleaze and corruption is not the electorate but the media, Conservative MPs and Boris himself. The public will follow.0 -
The English Labour Party should be keeping a very close eye on Senedd results.
The Corbyn candidate, the Momentum-backed hard leftie Mark Drakeford may be on course to getting the first ever majority government in Wales. Llafur is SMASHING expectations today.0 -
Looks like the Tories clawed one back south of Newport; this could go to the wire.0
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Another instance of Labour breaking the rules.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9554205/Labour-accused-breaking-election-rules-activist-filmed-handing-leaflets.html0 -
That would be the worst performance for the opposition party at this stage of a parliament on record.Andy_JS said:BBC projected share:
Con 36%
Lab 29%
LD 17%
Oth 18%1 -
Welsh Wizard Mark II? (Jim Callaghan not counting, obviously.)TheScreamingEagles said:We need to talk about Mark Drakeford succeeding Starmer as labour leader before the GE.
Actually that might be my piece for the weekend.0 -
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Labour majority in Ealing & Hillingdon has gone down from about 16,000 to about 9,000 I think.1
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Yes, Mark Drakeford has had a 'good' pandemic. Shows that there is hope for England with the right leader.CorrectHorseBattery said:I guess Labour are very popular.
In Wales0 -
London and the South are where Labour will go forward IMHO.Andy_JS said:Labour majority in Ealing & Hillingdon has gone down from about 16,000 to about 9,000 I think.
0 -
Newcastle beating Leicester City. What is this?0
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Cardiff South declaring now....I guess next could be West or will they do North first?0
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Indeed and a patriot. Under him 'Cool Britannia' was invented. It was perfect.Cookie said:
This is why Tony Blair was perfect for Labour. A Scot, with a northern seat, who sounded like a southerner.Cocky_cockney said:
No I think you're wrong there Robert.rcs1000 said:
Except that risks them losing their metropolitan vote to the LibDems or the Greens, quite possibly letting the Conservatives in in those seats.Cocky_cockney said:
David Miliband might have been the answer 15 years ago. He isn't now.FrankBooth said:
Doesn't Miliband's role with the International Rescue Mission mean he can be deployed at a moment's notice?rcs1000 said:
At least Burnham is in the UK.MaxPB said:
He's not in parliament. May as well bet on David Miliband.Gardenwalker said:I wonder how Andy Burnham has done in Manchester?
A good performance - against national trend - might give him a strong base to launch a Kier ouster.
They need a northerner who is unashamed to be patriotic and who doesn't kow tow to the woke metropolitans.
.
Whereas the southern metropolitan luvvies will put up with a northerner Labour leader, as they have for the past century, the opposite is not true.
It's part of the patronising woke metropolitan agenda that they will tolerate a good old northerner in charge of the party so long as he or she is basically coming out with the right kind of policies. They'll put up with a bit of patriotism and they know they've lost the EU so, for them, it's no longer an issue.
1 -
Seems like the Labour vote is also down in Leave voting areas of London like Havering and Hillingdon and Bexley but up in Remain heavy inner London, so even London matches the UK trend, Tories doing well in Leave areas, less well in Remain areasAndy_JS said:Labour majority in Ealing & Hillingdon has gone down from about 16,000 to about 9,000 I think.
1 -
Sturgeon will delay ('recovery from covid first') until the numbers are there in the polls. If it takes more than 12-18 months then Johnson will say that they will have to win a majority in 2026 to get indyref 2.algarkirk said:Is the prospect then of a clear 'number of seats' victory in Scotland for independence supporters, but with the actual vote numbers split about 50/50 between unionists and independents, while the polling on independence looks similarly about 50/50? A bit of a nightmare for the person, none other than Nippy, who has to make the first move is it not?
Boris has the luxury of being able to sit tight and wait. It seems to me he is safe until all three of these particular lemons are in a row.0 -
That kind of election result wouldn't have looked out of place in 2010 or 2015.CorrectHorseBattery said:
So within the MoE of the magic 6 point lead.Andy_JS said:BBC projected share:
Con 36%
Lab 29%
LD 17%
Oth 18%0 -
@Channel4News
· 1h
NEW: Exclusive polling for @Channel4News by @JLPartnersPolls shows the top reason given for not voting Labour in elections in England yesterday was Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.
Enough excuses: the Labour leadership is to blame, it needs to stop pointing the finger elsewhere, accept responsibility and act accordingly.1 -
So Labour is well behind and really should be doing a lot better than it is - but there are indications of where it can progress from. And that's London, the South East and Wales.
Is Keir Starmer smart enough to do that, or will he please make way for somebody who can.0 -
I'm always struck by how quickly Wales looks Welsh when you cross the border. It's the landscape - which changes suddenly; it's the architectural vernacular; it's any trace of signage, which is either Welsh language or contains Welsh place names, both of which look starkly non-English in a way that Scottish place names don't - or at least not to the same extent; it's how bloody GREEN everything is. It shouldn't feel so different to cross an arbitrary line on the map, but it does.Gardenwalker said:
Wales, in large parts, is quasi-English, in a way that is not true of Scotland.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, Wales is not like that at all. Wales is not like Scotland. There is probably a stronger cultural element, certainly a stronger language which, by the way, limits Plaid support, and there are transport problems within Wales and between Wales and England. And since the pro-independence Scots do not believe they are financially dependent on England, that country does not fit your analysis either.Black_Rook said:
That kind of vote in Wales is a bit like the muddy middle (pro-SNP, No to independence) vote in Scotland. Desperate to be rid of the English but like our money too much.ydoethur said:
Because it isn’t, whatever it feels like.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why Plaid are doing badly. It does feel as though the independence mood is growing. There are now several alternative options with Gwlad and Neil McEvoy's Propel as pro-independence.AndreaParma_82 said:Rhondda
Elizabeth Buffy Williams (Labour) 54.7 (+18.8)
Leanne Wood (Plaid) 31.3 (-19.3)
Labour gain
The majority of pro-independence people in Wales see it as a vague aspiration, that might be quite nice in the future. When several rather crucial issues have been sorted out.
If they were both net contributors to the Treasury they'd be out the exit door like a shot. There's little interest left in Britain but plenty of interest in not paying more tax.
As an aside, I suspect Salmond calling his party Alba was a mistake as it has unwanted cultural implications. The SNP is what it says on tin. Alba falsely advertises the Highlands and Islands and the language. It does not say Scotland.
Oh, and Brexit was another independence vote not decided on raw economics.
I'm also always struck my how barely you have to get over the Welsh border before hearing Welsh spoken conversationally. It's not just an oddity of the far north west, it's there as soon as you get into Flintshire. Not all the time, but common enough that it's unremarkable. Again, just by crossing an arbitrary line on a map.
It should be stressed that most of my experience of Wales is North Wales; South Wales may be different.0 -
What's the turnout in London mayor race compared to last time?0
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As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.HYUFD said:
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?RochdalePioneers said:Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.0 -
Hey Jack!JACK_W said:
How do you bypass a void?squareroot2 said:
He suffers from a charisma bypassbigjohnowls said:
Nob beats a Nobody every timeMexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.
Re: your query, shouldn't you direct it to Casino Royale? She's our PB transport engineering expert.1 -
Just ignore him manRochdalePioneers said:
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.HYUFD said:
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?RochdalePioneers said:Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.0 -
On these numbers the Nats will be very cautious about IndyRef2... Not likely to win it and since the die hard nutters who went to Alba have evaporated Sturgeon isnt about to be bounced into it.
From my own perspective, it could have been a whole load worse for the Lib Dems and there are several results that are quite cheering. Very tight on the List in the Scottish Parliament, but solid, even spectacular results for the held constituency seats and some progress in targets.
Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.
It seems that (Wales apart) the Lib Dems have been able to avoid the worst and have consolidated and even made progress in several key areas. It is a bit curates egg I admit, but TBH I think we will take that under the circumstances and look to push back next year.2 -
I'm aware that the large body of strongly pro-independence opinion in Scotland either (a) doesn't care about the money or (b) thinks the GERS figures are made up by Westminster. I wasn't talking about that lot, I was talking about the middle-class, middle-income, dislike the English but think independence will cost them lots of cash mob. The voters that the SNP is going to need to persuade to get separation over the finishing line. I was merely suggesting that your "aspirational" pro-independence voter in Wales is probably rather similar.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, Wales is not like that at all. Wales is not like Scotland. There is probably a stronger cultural element, certainly a stronger language which, by the way, limits Plaid support, and there are transport problems within Wales and between Wales and England. And since the pro-independence Scots do not believe they are financially dependent on England, that country does not fit your analysis either.Black_Rook said:
That kind of vote in Wales is a bit like the muddy middle (pro-SNP, No to independence) vote in Scotland. Desperate to be rid of the English but like our money too much.ydoethur said:
Because it isn’t, whatever it feels like.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why Plaid are doing badly. It does feel as though the independence mood is growing. There are now several alternative options with Gwlad and Neil McEvoy's Propel as pro-independence.AndreaParma_82 said:Rhondda
Elizabeth Buffy Williams (Labour) 54.7 (+18.8)
Leanne Wood (Plaid) 31.3 (-19.3)
Labour gain
The majority of pro-independence people in Wales see it as a vague aspiration, that might be quite nice in the future. When several rather crucial issues have been sorted out.
If they were both net contributors to the Treasury they'd be out the exit door like a shot. There's little interest left in Britain but plenty of interest in not paying more tax.
Besides, we keep being fed the whole "cultural rather than political" argument about Welsh distinctiveness, but fact is the only reason the explicitly pro-independence mob in Wales haven't grown really strong yet is because (a) Plaid are a niche interest party that struggles beyond the language belt (partly because of that, partly I suspect because they're too left-wing) and (b) Welsh Labour has taken on the challenge of sticking it to London at every conceivable opportunity, and has started adopting and offering pro-independence candidates to the electorate.
So, we shall see where Wales is in ten or twenty years' time. Probably as far down the constitutional bog pan as Scotland is now.0 -
Cardiff North already declared and I missed it
Julie Morgan 47.6% (+2.8)
Con 31.4 (-3.6)0 -
Maybe there are some SLab tactical Unionists after all.....Carnyx said:Ballot Box Scotland
@BallotBoxScot
·
35s
Eastwood (West) Constituency Vote:
Conservative ~ 17911 (41.9%, +6.3)
SNP ~ 15695 (36.8%, +5.5)
Labour ~ 6759 (15.8%, -14.7)
Independent ~ 1352 (3.2%, +3.2)
Lib Dem ~ 911 (2.1%, -0.4)
UKIP ~ 75 (0.2%, +0.2)2 -
Have you noticed that the Conservatives are making gains in many areas compared to 2017 ?HYUFD said:
Seems like the Labour vote is also down in Leave voting areas of London like Havering and Hillingdon and Bexley but up in Remain heavy inner London, so even London matches the UK trend, Tories doing well in Leave areas, less well in Remain areasAndy_JS said:Labour majority in Ealing & Hillingdon has gone down from about 16,000 to about 9,000 I think.
As I've been telling you, differential swing applies.1 -
Someone call the ambulance for BJO - he has been shocked repeatedly over the last few hours.squareroot2 said:
He suffers from a charisma bypassbigjohnowls said:
Nob beats a Nobody every timeMexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.0 -
Ealing & Hillingdon, mayoral votes:
Bailey: 79,863 + 23,118 = 102,981
Khan: 74,854 + 31,343 = 106,1970 -
If Londoners hadn't been so complacent Khan would have easily won in the first roundAndy_JS said:Ealing & Hillingdon, mayoral votes:
Bailey: 79,863 + 23,118 = 102,981
Khan: 74,854 + 31,343 = 106,1970 -
Isn't Flintshire natural habitat for the likes of Leon?Cookie said:
I'm always struck by how quickly Wales looks Welsh when you cross the border. It's the landscape - which changes suddenly; it's the architectural vernacular; it's any trace of signage, which is either Welsh language or contains Welsh place names, both of which look starkly non-English in a way that Scottish place names don't - or at least not to the same extent; it's how bloody GREEN everything is. It shouldn't feel so different to cross an arbitrary line on the map, but it does.Gardenwalker said:
Wales, in large parts, is quasi-English, in a way that is not true of Scotland.DecrepiterJohnL said:
No, Wales is not like that at all. Wales is not like Scotland. There is probably a stronger cultural element, certainly a stronger language which, by the way, limits Plaid support, and there are transport problems within Wales and between Wales and England. And since the pro-independence Scots do not believe they are financially dependent on England, that country does not fit your analysis either.Black_Rook said:
That kind of vote in Wales is a bit like the muddy middle (pro-SNP, No to independence) vote in Scotland. Desperate to be rid of the English but like our money too much.ydoethur said:
Because it isn’t, whatever it feels like.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why Plaid are doing badly. It does feel as though the independence mood is growing. There are now several alternative options with Gwlad and Neil McEvoy's Propel as pro-independence.AndreaParma_82 said:Rhondda
Elizabeth Buffy Williams (Labour) 54.7 (+18.8)
Leanne Wood (Plaid) 31.3 (-19.3)
Labour gain
The majority of pro-independence people in Wales see it as a vague aspiration, that might be quite nice in the future. When several rather crucial issues have been sorted out.
If they were both net contributors to the Treasury they'd be out the exit door like a shot. There's little interest left in Britain but plenty of interest in not paying more tax.
As an aside, I suspect Salmond calling his party Alba was a mistake as it has unwanted cultural implications. The SNP is what it says on tin. Alba falsely advertises the Highlands and Islands and the language. It does not say Scotland.
Oh, and Brexit was another independence vote not decided on raw economics.
I'm also always struck my how barely you have to get over the Welsh border before hearing Welsh spoken conversationally. It's not just an oddity of the far north west, it's there as soon as you get into Flintshire. Not all the time, but common enough that it's unremarkable. Again, just by crossing an arbitrary line on a map.
It should be stressed that most of my experience of Wales is North Wales; South Wales may be different.
Reckon he'd be quite well-placed for practicing his craft.
And could repair to Gladstone Library at Hawarden to research Welsh psephology & Druidic dildo-knapping.1 -
Brecon & Radnor: Con gain from LD.0
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If the SNP fail to get a majority that alone would mean Sturgeon has failed to match the majority for the SNP Salmond got in 2011 before indyref1, if the SNP and Green combined voteshare is also under 50% that is just the icing on the cake for Boris when he justifies refusing indyref2 as he will now do next weekRochdalePioneers said:
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.HYUFD said:
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?RochdalePioneers said:Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.0 -
Cobyn criticises Starmer's leadership of Labour Party
The former Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has criticised the direction of the party under Sir Keir Starmer for “offering nothing” but “insipid support for the government”.
Asked on Channel 4 News if Sir Keir should resign, Mr Corbyn said “it’s up to him what he decides to do”.
Mr Corbyn, who’s currently an independent MP having had the Labour whip removed, said “people want to know what the Labour Party now stands for” and the party has to “offer people a vision for social justice”.
He said the results were “very very bad in parts of the country” but in Wales “seem quite good", adding the leader of Welsh Labour “has never apologised for being a socialist”.
He insisted that the policies of his 2019 manifesto were right and popular, adding “I think the party has to recognise what its roots are, what principles are, and meet (people’s) needs.”0 -
No I'm sorry but this isn't acceptable.RochdalePioneers said:
As you are pathologically dumb I will remind you that it doesn't matter if the SNP get a majority as the Green Party have also run on a manifesto of independence.HYUFD said:
When did Corbyn Labour get anything like the combined 52% for Unionist parties on the constituency vote and 49% on the list?RochdalePioneers said:Unionists arguing that vote share matters and seats won don't matter sound like Corbynistas trying to justify why losing an election is winning one.
The SNP may also fail to get a majority too
There are more than one party running who want independence. I absolutely expect a swing between SNP and Green on the list where (to use the NE as an example) 45% voted SNP for zero seats. Why do both votes SNP up here when its the Greens who can win seats for independence on the list not the SNP.
The Greens are a UK national party who campaign on multiple issues. Scottish independence is a very small part of their agenda. You cannot extrapolate a minor note in their manifesto as proof of a cast-iron support for independence.
The contrast with the SNP should be obvious. Their entire raison d'etre is in the name: they are a Scottish nationalist party. They exist for an independent Scotland.
No outright SNP majority will mean no mandate (legal or moral) for another independence referendum. Westminster unionists can legitimately refuse another referendum if the SNP haven't won an outright majority.0 -
Lab gain Cowes North from Con0
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Does seem to be the case in the Great Wen.another_richard said:
Have you noticed that the Conservatives are making gains in many areas compared to 2017 ?HYUFD said:
Seems like the Labour vote is also down in Leave voting areas of London like Havering and Hillingdon and Bexley but up in Remain heavy inner London, so even London matches the UK trend, Tories doing well in Leave areas, less well in Remain areasAndy_JS said:Labour majority in Ealing & Hillingdon has gone down from about 16,000 to about 9,000 I think.
As I've been telling you, differential swing applies.0 -
Is it? Is he inside or outside the fence? It looks like outside.FrancisUrquhart said:Another instance of Labour breaking the rules.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9554205/Labour-accused-breaking-election-rules-activist-filmed-handing-leaflets.html0 -
As he's the only part of Labour able to take credit for the achievements of the national government in Westminster.bigjohnowls said:The English Labour Party should be keeping a very close eye on Senedd results.
The Corbyn candidate, the Momentum-backed hard leftie Mark Drakeford may be on course to getting the first ever majority government in Wales. Llafur is SMASHING expectations today.0 -
Labour hold Dumbarton0
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Good results for Labour in both Pembrokeshire seats!valleyboy said:
What makes you say Mark Drakeford is a nob?Mexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
I assume you didnt vote for him.0 -
Lab HOLD Dunbarton2
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Labour hasn't got much room to win seats in London and Wales, plus the SE is going to be much tougher in a GE as the shires will be voting.CorrectHorseBattery said:So Labour is well behind and really should be doing a lot better than it is - but there are indications of where it can progress from. And that's London, the South East and Wales.
Is Keir Starmer smart enough to do that, or will he please make way for somebody who can.1 -
So far nippie has picked up 3 seats. They were 2 seats short of a majority last time. 3 is a bigger number than 2. Which seats are we expecting them to lose?1
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With your love of 1980s pop music I'm sure you could get a pun from this (if you haven't already done so):TheScreamingEagles said:We need to talk about Mark Drakeford succeeding Starmer as labour leader before the GE.
Actually that might be my piece for the weekend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye7FKc1JQe40 -
Dumbarton: Lab hold by 1,4830
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It says something for Starmer Labour that his biggest swings in England so far are in Surrey, West London and Sevenoaks and his biggest swing in Scotland was in the poshest part of Edinburgh, while Labour have lost the likes of working class Hartlepool and been trounced in Harlow, Nuneaton, the West Midlands etc.Cicero said:On these numbers the Nats will be very cautious about IndyRef2... Not likely to win it and since the die hard nutters who went to Alba have evaporated Sturgeon isnt about to be bounced into it.
From my own perspective, it could have been a whole load worse for the Lib Dems and there are several results that are quite cheering. Very tight on the List in the Scottish Parliament, but solid, even spectacular results for the held constituency seats and some progress in targets.
Some very odd results in other parts of the country, the Tories got minced in Sevenoaks for example, which seems um... interesting. I wonder what the corollation between education level and propensity to vote Conservative is now? I would guess it has fallen quite a bit and that could become a problem for the Tories if it continues.
It seems that (Wales apart) the Lib Dems have been able to avoid the worst and have consolidated and even made progress in several key areas. It is a bit curates egg I admit, but TBH I think we will take that under the circumstances and look to push back next year.
This is truly the poshest Labour vote ever (outside Wales), even more so than Blair got and the most working class Tory vote ever1 -
Have BBC and Sky completely forgotten about the London results being announced at the moment?0
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Labour hold Dumbarton. SNP’s path to an overall majority now looks tricky.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/13907519884013772830 -
Dumbarton really annoys me.Gallowgate said:Labour hold Dumbarton
Dumbarton is in Dunbartonshire.
It is like Lancaster being in Lamchester.0 -
Well, that's probably the SNP majority away.1
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Dunbarton won by Baillei pretty easily0
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I have hacked CHB's AccountCorrectHorseBattery said:So Labour is well behind and really should be doing a lot better than it is - but there are indications of where it can progress from. And that's London, the South East and Wales.
Is Keir Starmer smart enough to do that, or will he please make way for somebody who can.0 -
They have just scored a second.Gallowgate said:Newcastle beating Leicester City. What is this?
If Leicester don't win tonight then it really is game on for the CL spots. Remember, Leicester still have to play Chelsea and Tottenham.0 -
Baillie wins by 1500, what the fuck was that all about?2
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Bloody hell, it's Jack W! Not seen you in years Jack! By my calculations you are now 119 - though of course I hadn't written you off.JACK_W said:
How do you bypass a void?squareroot2 said:
He suffers from a charisma bypassbigjohnowls said:
Nob beats a Nobody every timeMexicanpete said:Drakeford is a nob, his party have done very well electorally in the pandemic. Johnson is a nob, he has done very well electorally in the pandemic. Is there a correlation?
SKS is a nobody and a shockingly poor one at that.
It'll be kinkell, Woody662 and Stuart Penketh next.1 -
We don't know the final result yet of course, but the Scottish results have the distinct feeling of the worst of all worlds i.e. exactly the set of results you'd want if you wanted to make zero progress in actually resolving things one way or the other, and therefore can expect the usual suspects to be talking about exactly the same things for the next several years with no real prospect of anything new coming out of it.2
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Right, is anyone following the London count, who can update us?0
This discussion has been closed.