In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com
In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com
The chart shows the latest Smarkets betting on Starmer’s exit date. As can be seen this was a 53% chance only yesterday and it has now moved to a 67% one.
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https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541
Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage'
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057
If Labour were ruthless he'd be gone by then, he's useless. But they're not ruthless so who knows.
The Tory donor at the centre of the Downing Street refurbishment row was a trustee of a royal charity when it bought furniture for his home and paid £1 million to his property company, The Times can reveal https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/property-firm-owned-by-tory-donor-in-no11-flat-row-was-paid-1m-by-royal-charity-while-he-was-a-trustee-br6lhq5fh
Bloody work.
Labour 46.1 (+10.7)
Plaid 28.4 (-1.1)
Con 17.3 (+8.4)
Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
Edit - OK, Blair I will give you, but that was in government and different rules apply.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/31/starmer-not-up-to-it/
Turkey
Maldives
Nepal
The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
Same happened in Delyn.
Poor for Con in North Wales.
Neil Findlay
@NeilFindlay_MSP
Scottish Labour must:-
- accept right to self determination
- engage positively on the constitution
- have a credible Devo max position
- make it clear that a 3rd option must be on any future ballot
- be at the table in any discussion about timing, question, conduct of any ref
Lab 37.4 (+0.3)
Con 31.4 (+0.8)
Plaid 21.4 (+8.5)
Labour hold
But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
So. Maybe this is value.
Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
No one obvious springs to mind.
SE Asia not looking good,
https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.
Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)
No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.
Lab GAIN from Con
Even Lord Guacamole gets it.
Con hold
Con 39 (-0.2)
Lab 34.6 (+9.3)
The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'
The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.
Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.
With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.
Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.
Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.
Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/05/07/government-talks-move-champions-league-final-england-turkey/
I think he still probably wins the NC vote, and comfortably, even if one is called.
Labour 40.7% (-4.3)
Ind 19.3
Plaid 16.1 (-3.4)
Con 15.9 (+7.9)
@BallotBoxScot
·
2m
Stirling (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:
SNP ~ 19882 (48.6%, +0.9)
Conservative ~ 12987 (31.8%, +3.7)
Labour ~ 6556 (16%, -4.1)
Lib Dem ~ 1466 (3.6%, -0.6)
#SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315
Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)
No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.
Grn GAIN from Lab
If they want to make any progress in 2024, that seems to be the most likely place to do it, they can maybe make up to 20 gains on a very good night with that. Then Starmer or whoever can leave for the next leader to re-build the coalition still further.
Lab 43.2 (+7.7)
Con 31.1 (+9.2)
LD -7.3 UKIP -10.6
Ideal destination for former leaders...
That's the THIRD seat they have won today which they lost at 2019 GE.
Poor for Con - maybe due to lower turnout than at a GE.
I think it's Corbyn - I think he'll re-emerge.
It remains to be seen whether it lasts for them.
There has to be a local story there surely?
Nick Eardley
@nickeardleybbc
·
16m
SNP hold Rutherglen - the main Labour target
Nick Eardley
@nickeardleybbc
·
17m
SNP think they've won Ayr - but treat with a bit caution because still some recounting going on
SNP ~ 21064 (45.5%, +2)
Conservative ~ 9580 (20.7%, -2.1)
Labour ~ 8510 (18.4%, -2.7)
Lib Dem ~ 6675 (14.4%, +2)
Family Party ~ 415 (0.9%, 0.9)
Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
Can only suspect inexperienced count watchers who got excited at a sample from the Plaidest of Plaid wards.
Poor from the Tories overall though across Wales. And even better the populist parties may well have tripped over each other on the list if there vote shares in the constituency are indicative and their supporters haven't focussed their votes.
It would take a new leader, from a new generation to do it, but a "New Deal for the Young" is the sort of policy that worked in embryo in 2017.
The plan would be to shift the tipping point for age domination upwards, and get out the younger vote. Do it in a positive way, so as to keep as many oldies onside as possible, as many of us think the under forties are getting a raw deal at the moment.
Going after retired CDE voters in Hartlepool clearly isn't working.
Quesiton is how much those two gains are outweighed on the list for South of Scotland. The SNP had 3 out of 7 list seats at the last election, so would? lose 1, maybe 2.. But good for morale.