In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

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System
System Posts: 12,578
edited May 2021 in General
imageIn the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

The chart shows the latest Smarkets betting on Starmer’s exit date. As can be seen this was a 53% chance only yesterday and it has now moved to a 67% one.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    edited May 2021
    Second...
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541

    Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    I think Starmer will last the year, replaced 22 or 23.
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    Pattern is rather continuing in the regional list figures we have so far - Alba on 1.3% in Hamilton, 0.8% in Orkney, 2.2% in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, 1.5% in Clydebank & Milngavie - still just some wee snapshots but not looking good for Alex Salmond's party. https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1390680324607201281
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    2023 is the end of the year after next, not next year surely?

    If Labour were ruthless he'd be gone by then, he's useless. But they're not ruthless so who knows.
  • HarryFreeman
    HarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

  • eek
    eek Posts: 30,707
    Scott_xP said:

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541

    Labour says it's seeing 'significant impact from turnout and voter complacency' in London. Source: 'There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty at this stage'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390695466602541057

    If Bailey wins it will be due to Labour voters not voting far more than Tory voters actually voting.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?
  • HarryFreeman
    HarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Black_Rook said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    Shapps said there will be a review every 3 weeks of the traffic lights.
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    Tomorrow's chip paper...

    The Tory donor at the centre of the Downing Street refurbishment row was a trustee of a royal charity when it bought furniture for his home and paid £1 million to his property company, The Times can reveal https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/property-firm-owned-by-tory-donor-in-no11-flat-row-was-paid-1m-by-royal-charity-while-he-was-a-trustee-br6lhq5fh
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Have I missed much today?

    Bloody work.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    HarryFreeman said:

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    I think they may well do so this time. Everyone can see that Starmer is a dud.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Caerphilly

    Labour 46.1 (+10.7)
    Plaid 28.4 (-1.1)
    Con 17.3 (+8.4)
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HarryFreeman said:

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Unless they've just won a third General Election victory.

    Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,260
    edited May 2021
    HarryFreeman said:

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Well, they do, but they haven’t done it since Lansbury in 1935.

    Edit - OK, Blair I will give you, but that was in government and different rules apply.
  • HarryFreeman
    HarryFreeman Posts: 210
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Have I missed much today?

    Bloody work.

    Binface in a dismal 9th place.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    On topic, called it earlier on this year, said Starmer wasn't up to it.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/01/31/starmer-not-up-to-it/
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?
  • eek
    eek Posts: 30,707
    Philip_Thompson said:

    2023 is the end of the year after next, not next year surely?

    If Labour were ruthless he'd be gone by then, he's useless. But they're not ruthless so who knows.

    You need a decent potential replacement though - and I just don't see one.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    SLab effect, keep changing the leader when the issues are around a coherent message which resonates with voters.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited May 2021
    Lab win Wrexham after Con win at 2019 GE.

    Same happened in Delyn.

    Poor for Con in North Wales.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2021
    Airbridge 2.0, Airbridge harder (and more complicated)... just no no no....this is a terrible idea.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    Hmm, SLAB elements unhappy

    Neil Findlay
    @NeilFindlay_MSP
    Scottish Labour must:-
    - accept right to self determination
    - engage positively on the constitution
    - have a credible Devo max position
    - make it clear that a 3rd option must be on any future ballot
    - be at the table in any discussion about timing, question, conduct of any ref
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Wrexham

    Lab 37.4 (+0.3)
    Con 31.4 (+0.8)
    Plaid 21.4 (+8.5)

    Labour hold
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,316
    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    HarryFreeman said:

    Shapps said there will be a review every 3 weeks of the traffic lights.

    https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1390613234793713672
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    Foxy said:

    I think Starmer will last the year, replaced 22 or 23.

    It may simply be the case of next to no real political experience, certainly in terms of campaigning, before he quickly moved up to the top job. Never been a councillor or prominent activist, required no real campaign to get elected in Camden, and during his brief time in parliament was given roles that drew mostly on his experience as a lawyer.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Have I missed much today?

    Bloody work.

    Shaun Bailey looking like he might win London. So not much.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Scott_xP said:

    HarryFreeman said:

    Shapps said there will be a review every 3 weeks of the traffic lights.

    https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1390613234793713672
    Oh look another totally unfunny cartoon from the evening standard.
  • ping
    ping Posts: 3,805
    Black_Rook said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    Not a fan of allowing non-essential foreign trips, tbh. It’s asking for trouble.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    Black_Rook said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.

    SE Asia not looking good,

    https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2021
    Black_Rook said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    How many people will just fly to Faro and then drive to Spain? It really isn't far. Or to Gibraltar....even closer
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    People still backing Brian Rose to win despite him being odds on to get under 1%!
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,316
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HarryFreeman said:

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Unless they've just won a third General Election victory.

    Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
    Well. It would be Wilson. Who like Blair stood down.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Scottish Sun reporting that SNP think they've won Ayr
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    FPT:
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?

    Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Folkestone East (Kent) council result:

    Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
    Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
    Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
    LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)

    No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    SandyRentool said:

    Folkestone East (Kent) council result:

    Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
    Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
    Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
    LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)

    No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con

    Fascinating
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    dixiedean said:

    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.

    Ms Rayner 😍
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con hold Preseli despite Lab +9%
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    edited May 2021
    It does indeed look as if Binface is marginally ahead of both Piers Corbyn and Peter Gammons, but Nobel laureate and anti-political correctness philosopher Lawrence Fox seems to be on about double both of them, so far.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2021
    I just heard Starmer on the radio and felt sorry for him because he just sounded so wooden.
  • Omnium
    Omnium Posts: 11,763
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    Some small signs that people fear they might be retreating in important areas too though. Khan is drifting. (I think there's almost no chance that he doesn't win, but after having backed some 1.02s this morning I chickened out and layed some 1.03s - still massively onside anyway thanks to the generosity of Brian Rose)
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    dixiedean said:

    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.

    It's not so much left v right. It is fish & chips v tofu.

    Even Lord Guacamole gets it.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    MikeL said:

    People still backing Brian Rose to win despite him being odds on to get under 1%!

    Is there a link to the count? I am interested in Binface vs the other minnows.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Con hold

    Con 39 (-0.2)
    Lab 34.6 (+9.3)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited May 2021
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?

    Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
    Government in talks to move the Champions League final to England after Turkey placed on red list

    The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'

    The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.

    Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.

    With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.

    Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.

    Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.

    Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/05/07/government-talks-move-champions-league-final-england-turkey/
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Foxy said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.

    SE Asia not looking good,

    https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
    Indonesia is a disaster waiting to happen - despite government attempts many will be going home for the Idul Fitri holiday, taking COVID from the cities to the countryside...
  • Endillion
    Endillion Posts: 4,976
    edited May 2021
    Assuming he doesn't resign, what's the process for replacing Starmer again? If I remember right, someone has to trigger a VoNC, which is determined by a simple majority of MPs. He is then automatically on the ballot for the subsequent leadership election, assuming consistent rules with 2016 (and assuming he wants to be , which he quite possibly wouldn't).

    I think he still probably wins the NC vote, and comfortably, even if one is called.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    True. You can almost predict where they're going to do well from demographics. Reading, Folkestone, Colchester, Hexham, etc.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    FPT: Old King Cole: Blue tits need a ridiculous number of moth larvae to feed their young (mostly Winter and November Moth). (From memory, blue tits consume 30 billion of them annually.) I hope they are having better luck finding them than I am. Saw my first of the year today.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Islwyn

    Labour 40.7% (-4.3)
    Ind 19.3
    Plaid 16.1 (-3.4)
    Con 15.9 (+7.9)
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,260
    dixiedean said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HarryFreeman said:

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Unless they've just won a third General Election victory.

    Other than Blair who is the last Labour leader replaced mid-term? John Smith doesn't count since it wasn't Labour's choice to replace him.
    Well. It would be Wilson. Who like Blair stood down.
    Going by that logic it would be either Smith or Beckett.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Gallowgate said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Folkestone East (Kent) council result:

    Lab: 38.2% (+12.5)
    Con: 32.7% (-3.0)
    Oth: 18.7% (+17.3)
    LDem: 10.4% (-6.3)

    No UKIP (-20.4) as prev.

    Lab GAIN from Con

    Fascinating
    It really is
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    2m
    Stirling (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 19882 (48.6%, +0.9)
    Conservative ~ 12987 (31.8%, +3.7)
    Labour ~ 6556 (16%, -4.1)
    Lib Dem ~ 1466 (3.6%, -0.6)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    edited May 2021
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    Yes. Labour must be extremely thorough about finding out exactly why and how, alongside the post-mortem in the north and elsewhere.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Con hold Aberconwy
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Islwyn

    Labour 40.7% (-4.3)
    Ind 19.3
    Plaid 16.1 (-3.4)
    Con 15.9 (+7.9)

    I checked, the Independent candidate already finished second in 2007 (that time with 28%).
  • Scott_xP
    Scott_xP Posts: 39,295
    No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,316
    SandyRentool said:

    dixiedean said:

    Wasn't having any of this before now. The results in the NE were as I was expecting. Perhaps even slightly better.
    But I did expect Labour to move forward in some other regions to compensate. This doesn't appear to have happened.
    So. Maybe this is value.
    Labour needs someone who both Right and Left of the Party can at least tolerate as a leader. Desperately.
    No one obvious springs to mind.

    It's not so much left v right. It is fish & chips v tofu.

    Even Lord Guacamole gets it.
    Nonetheless. A leader who could dine on both without suffering indigestion is necessary.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Bebington (Wirral) council result:

    Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
    Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
    Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
    LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)

    No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.

    Grn GAIN from Lab
  • Taz
    Taz Posts: 19,666
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    In the 2019 GE they gained Putney.
  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,169
    CarlottaVance said:

    Foxy said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Party time for the Portuguese tourism industry. They make the Green list, Spain and Greece don't. The only question now is how many millions of fat Brits they can handle...?

    I booked for Madeira for December when it was on the Red List, within 2 months onto the green. Everything is subject to change.

    SE Asia not looking good,

    https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1389951071406247940?s=19
    Indonesia is a disaster waiting to happen - despite government attempts many will be going home for the Idul Fitri holiday, taking COVID from the cities to the countryside...
    With increasing cases in Mongolia, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, it is hard to see China remaining unscathed. All are effectively unvaccinated, and the situation in the Seychelles, Uruguay and Chile suggests Sinovac is a dud compared to the other vaccines.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Andy_JS said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390702236108476418

    There are small signs Labour is advancing in a few small areas.

    True. You can almost predict where they're going to do well from demographics. Reading, Folkestone, Colchester, Hexham, etc.
    The intelligent play for any Labour leader, whether it's Starmer or not, is surely to figure out why they're popular in these areas and to go after them first, as they seem to be "in their column" already.

    If they want to make any progress in 2024, that seems to be the most likely place to do it, they can maybe make up to 20 gains on a very good night with that. Then Starmer or whoever can leave for the next leader to re-build the coalition still further.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Floater said:

    Bebington (Wirral) council result:

    Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
    Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
    Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
    LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)

    No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.

    Grn GAIN from Lab

    Lab + Green near on 90% of the vote lol
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Scott_xP said:

    No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315

    Better that the list be restrictive than not.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Clwyd South

    Lab 43.2 (+7.7)
    Con 31.1 (+9.2)

    LD -7.3 UKIP -10.6
  • El_Capitano
    El_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    SandyRentool said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
    He'll probably wire them up to the mains.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    CarlottaVance said:

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    I don't know. Some of those, you'd be taking more than two weeks anyway on the boat - so you aren't saving much time ...
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    WhisperingOracle said:

    It does indeed look as if Binface is marginally ahead of both Piers Corbyn and Peter Gammons, but Nobel laureate and anti-political correctness philosopher Lawrence Fox seems to be on about double both of them, so far.

    The SeanT collective’s block vote has put him just ahead?
  • Stuartinromford
    Stuartinromford Posts: 19,145
    CarlottaVance said:

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    St Helena you say?

    Ideal destination for former leaders...
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Lab win Clwyd South.

    That's the THIRD seat they have won today which they lost at 2019 GE.

    Poor for Con - maybe due to lower turnout than at a GE.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    60% for Labour in Swansea East.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    edited May 2021
    CarlottaVance said:

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    Either I'm imagining it, or there are strong hints of a political dimension to that list.
  • Omnium
    Omnium Posts: 11,763
    SandyRentool said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
    I can't imagine he'd find 20%. The obvious aspirer is Lammy. He's put himself forward for every job in the last ten years. He's also now quite far from his childish former self. I don't think he's brave enough to spark the crisis though.

    I think it's Corbyn - I think he'll re-emerge.
  • DecrepiterJohnL
    DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,764
    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    People still backing Brian Rose to win despite him being odds on to get under 1%!

    Is there a link to the count? I am interested in Binface vs the other minnows.
    https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/live-results/live-mayoral-results
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    To me it seems that in Wales, Labour has got a vaccine boost, much like the Tories.

    It remains to be seen whether it lasts for them.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Scott_xP said:

    No wonder Grant Shapps didn't read out the full list of 12 countries on the quarantine-free travel 'green list' - it includes Australia and New Zealand, which aren't letting anyone in
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1390701826211725315

    Does it include the US? (Also, are the rules different for fully vaccinated people?)
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    To me it seems that in Wales, Labour has got a vaccine boost, much like the Tories.

    It remains to be seen whether it lasts for them.

    It's because you can't shake the drake
  • SeaShantyIrish2
    SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    HarryFreeman said:

    Labour don't bin leaders mid term.

    Correct. It waits for the Grim Reaper (or the ravages of time) to do it for (or to) them.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,316
    Floater said:

    Bebington (Wirral) council result:

    Grn: 59.8% (+55.6)
    Lab: 29.0% (-27.4)
    Con: 10.0% (-11.4)
    LDem: 1.2% (-4.1)

    No UKIP (-11.6) as prev.

    Grn GAIN from Lab

    That may be the most surprising so far.
    There has to be a local story there surely?
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654

    Nick Eardley
    @nickeardleybbc
    ·
    16m
    SNP hold Rutherglen - the main Labour target





    Nick Eardley
    @nickeardleybbc
    ·
    17m
    SNP think they've won Ayr - but treat with a bit caution because still some recounting going on
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    SNP gain Ayr
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Any more news on the Khan vs Bailey situation in London?
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    Strathkelvin & Bearsden (West) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 21064 (45.5%, +2)
    Conservative ~ 9580 (20.7%, -2.1)
    Labour ~ 8510 (18.4%, -2.7)
    Lib Dem ~ 6675 (14.4%, +2)
    Family Party ~ 415 (0.9%, 0.9)

  • SeaShantyIrish2
    SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    WhisperingOracle said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Many of which you can't get physically get to, and others won't let you in:


    Either I'm imagining it, or there are strong hints of a political dimension to that list.
    Hear the South Sandwich Island are lovely this time of year. IF you are a penguin.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    "Con Ayr" - all-new action blockbuster starring Nicola Cage as "Cameron Go!"
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,727
    edited May 2021
    Omnium said:

    SandyRentool said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Starmer has a year. If it's still dire this time next year he needs to go.

    Richard Burgon installing phone lines...
    I can't imagine he'd find 20%. The obvious aspirer is Lammy. He's put himself forward for every job in the last ten years. He's also now quite far from his childish former self. I don't think he's brave enough to spark the crisis though.

    I think it's Corbyn - I think he'll re-emerge.
    Corbyn does have a “king over the water who sensible people in the party despair about making a comeback but holds a grim sway over a lot of the base” feel to him. A bit like Trump.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Gallowgate said:

    SNP gain Ayr

    Conservative since 2000.

    Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
  • 3ChordTrick
    3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Con hold Aberconwy

    Yes what the hell Plaid were on earlier I have no idea.

    Can only suspect inexperienced count watchers who got excited at a sample from the Plaidest of Plaid wards.

    Poor from the Tories overall though across Wales. And even better the populist parties may well have tripped over each other on the list if there vote shares in the constituency are indicative and their supporters haven't focussed their votes.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    Andy_JS said:

    Any more news on the Khan vs Bailey situation in London?

    Tomorrow
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    And he says three new countries will be added to the red list:

    Turkey
    Maldives
    Nepal

    The Maldives, that is where so many people went to get from a red country to escape hotel quarantine in the UK...have they taken the covid with them there?

    Good job there isn't an important sporting event happening there any time soon...
    Government in talks to move the Champions League final to England after Turkey placed on red list

    The Telegraph can exclusively reveal that the government is in talks with Uefa and would expect any approach they make to be 'accommodated'

    The Government is in talks over bringing the Champions League final to England after placing coronavirus-ravaged Turkey on its “red list” for travel.

    Friday’s announcement by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps threw Istanbul’s staging of the all-English clash between Manchester City and Chelsea into major doubt amid current restrictions that force anyone returning from a red-list country – including elite sportspeople – to quarantine for 10 days at a hotel at a cost of £1,750.

    With a number of England’s best players due to play in the May 29 final, that would plunge Gareth Southgate’s preparations for the European Championship into chaos.

    Telegraph Sport has been told talks are under way between the Government, Football Association and Uefa about moving the match to England, something fan leaders from both clubs, and a host of MPs and public health experts have called for.

    Whitehall sources stressed ministers had made no formal request to that effect and had yet to be offered the game but multiple insiders indicated any such approach would be accommodated.

    Wembley would be the logical venue to stage the match but it is currently hosting the Championship play-off final on the same day and it is unclear whether the English Football League would be prepared to make way.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/05/07/government-talks-move-champions-league-final-england-turkey/
    Should be held in Wembley with 80,000 fans.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    SNP gain Ayr

    Conservative since 2000.

    Still many Constituencies to go but at the moment it looks like 2015 in miniature with the SNP getting Goldilocks swing across the country, even losing vote share where it doesn't matter.
    How many seats are you currently predicting the SNP will win?
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    Gallowgate said:

    SNP gain Ayr

    Ah! That is one more target seat, beside East Lothian, they've had.

    Quesiton is how much those two gains are outweighed on the list for South of Scotland. The SNP had 3 out of 7 list seats at the last election, so would? lose 1, maybe 2.. But good for morale.
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