Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.
Gadzooks.
To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
Just on the number from last time 5k majority and on on decreased turnout less. The worry for labour must be what is seen elsewhere - Tories not just picking up bxt party but exceeding it
I forecast Con 13k vs 11.5k for Lab. I think my Lab number will only be slightly out, but Cons will be around 16-17k.
Politico.com - MAGA world pans [US Rep Elise] Stefanik Donald Trump’s populist base has serious issues with the New York congresswoman who’s poised to replace Rep. Liz Cheney.
. . . Within minutes of Trump’s endorsement of the New York congresswoman for GOP conference chair on Wednesday, top MAGA voices erupted in anger — a rare break with the former president. The invective aimed at Stefanik, who was perceived to be insufficiently conservative and a relative newcomer to the Trump cause, continued to zoom through the MAGA-sphere on Thursday. . . .
Do you think Trump is expecting inducements for his patronage?
Doubt it. Not because he wouldn't IF he needed the money. But right now he's raking it in from the MAGA maniacs, and of course raking his personal cut off the top (expenses, you know).
I suppose the party is just further beholden to the man.
Not knowing anything about Republican machinations I was assuming one of the acolytes was in with a chance, Pompeo in particular. but could a Trump be on the ticket 2024?
Pompeo is NOT a hot prospect, though he'd like to be. De Santis is currently leading the rabid Republican pack.
Trumpsky do a Grover Cleveland? Or try to?
My guess is that The Donald would rather be Kingmaker than Kingfish = POTUS.
Been there, done that.
Ah I was thinking more of the progeny. If all the nomination takes is a plurality then....
Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.
Gadzooks.
To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
Just on the number from last time 5k majority and on on decreased turnout less. The worry for labour must be what is seen elsewhere - Tories not just picking up bxt party but exceeding it
I forecast Con 13k vs 11.5k for Lab. I think my Lab number will only be slightly out, but Cons will be around 16-17k.
Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.
Gadzooks.
To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
Isn't that a bit of a shock? It wasn't a guarantee that all of the UKIP votes would go Blue.
Yes: I assumed than 60% of UKIP/BXP would go to Con, 20% would go Lab, and 20% would stay home. So it's a big move towards Con.
I recall when received opinion said ‘these voters may go BXP or UKIP, they will never go Tory’. Oops
The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and vaccines.
I don't think we should be surprised that the voters have said "thank you".
But I also don't think we should forget that voters are forgetful folk. What they care about in May 2024 may be different to May 2021.
I recall a certain Theresa May who called a general election off the back of some far-reaching local election results in 2017. Seemed to work out well for her, that...
Politico.com - MAGA world pans [US Rep Elise] Stefanik Donald Trump’s populist base has serious issues with the New York congresswoman who’s poised to replace Rep. Liz Cheney.
. . . Within minutes of Trump’s endorsement of the New York congresswoman for GOP conference chair on Wednesday, top MAGA voices erupted in anger — a rare break with the former president. The invective aimed at Stefanik, who was perceived to be insufficiently conservative and a relative newcomer to the Trump cause, continued to zoom through the MAGA-sphere on Thursday. . . .
Do you think Trump is expecting inducements for his patronage?
Doubt it. Not because he wouldn't IF he needed the money. But right now he's raking it in from the MAGA maniacs, and of course raking his personal cut off the top (expenses, you know).
Say what you like about Donald Trump, at least he paid for his own gold wallpaper.
Did he? I thought it has been alleged that he was rather keen on using his charity as a personal piggy bank.
Yes, but at least it was his own charity.
Trumpsky IS his own charity. The only one that he contributes to, ever, forever.
You can almost predict how a result will go by asking whether it's an area where a lot of people with Woke opinions might live. Colchester is a university town so there will be at least some areas in that category. Nuneaton, not so much.
Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.
Gadzooks.
To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
Isn't that a bit of a shock? It wasn't a guarantee that all of the UKIP votes would go Blue.
Yes: I assumed than 60% of UKIP/BXP would go to Con, 20% would go Lab, and 20% would stay home. So it's a big move towards Con.
I recall when received opinion said ‘these voters may go BXP or UKIP, they will never go Tory’. Oops
The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and vaccines.
I don't think we should be surprised that the voters have said "thank you".
But I also don't think we should forget that voters are forgetful folk. What they care about in May 2024 may be different to May 2021.
I recall a certain Theresa May who called a general election off the back of some far-reaching local election results in 2017. Seemed to work out well for her, that...
Didn't she win a by-election from the opposition too...
Politico.com - MAGA world pans [US Rep Elise] Stefanik Donald Trump’s populist base has serious issues with the New York congresswoman who’s poised to replace Rep. Liz Cheney.
. . . Within minutes of Trump’s endorsement of the New York congresswoman for GOP conference chair on Wednesday, top MAGA voices erupted in anger — a rare break with the former president. The invective aimed at Stefanik, who was perceived to be insufficiently conservative and a relative newcomer to the Trump cause, continued to zoom through the MAGA-sphere on Thursday. . . .
Do you think Trump is expecting inducements for his patronage?
Doubt it. Not because he wouldn't IF he needed the money. But right now he's raking it in from the MAGA maniacs, and of course raking his personal cut off the top (expenses, you know).
I suppose the party is just further beholden to the man.
Not knowing anything about Republican machinations I was assuming one of the acolytes was in with a chance, Pompeo in particular. but could a Trump be on the ticket 2024?
Pompeo is NOT a hot prospect, though he'd like to be. De Santis is currently leading the rabid Republican pack.
Trumpsky do a Grover Cleveland? Or try to?
My guess is that The Donald would rather be Kingmaker than Kingfish = POTUS.
Been there, done that.
Ah I was thinking more of the progeny. If all the nomination takes is a plurality then....
Yours truly is more electable than any of Trumpsky's spawn. With possible exception of Barron, just too early to tell.
Could be the John Quincy Adams of the 21st Century!
The problem is not the leader of Labour, as I've said before, its that Labour is a fundamentally broken institution, with an appeal that is too narrow.
I'm not sure the appeal is too much of a problem but the demography is now v-unfavourable.
Is this the Cummings effect: pushing the conservatives to grasp the disenfranchised lower-middle incomes?
Part Cummings; part Boris. Broken record mode ON. Boris won in 2019 by running on Labour's 2017 platform.
So why vote Labour in 2021? More nurses? More infrastructure spending? More investment up north? You can get all those from Boris.
I suppose the Labour party will have to grin and bear it for the foreseeable.
For me this is what happens when you loose your party's base through triangulation. Its just that the home counties are yet to feel the political alienation of the northern small towners.
Theresa May spoke about the JAMs who had lost out under Cameron. Just About Managing. Maybe those small-C conservative JAMs are the Tory equivalent of Labour's lost voters left behind.
And a good proportion will be having to fund the cladding work on their mis-sold high rises.
Good proportion?!? Well below 1% will be affected
'Between 760,000 and 1.36 million people who are financially affected by the cladding crisis, either as owner-occupiers or landlords.'
The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors
Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors
Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors
Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors
Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
Tories can still win places that were 60% Remain, if Labour + LibDem + Green stand and get 30% and 20% and 10% each. Tories with a handy win on 40%.
Coupon elections where only one of them stands in Remain seats?
The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors
Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
Tories can still win places that were 60% Remain, if Labour + LibDem + Green stand and get 30% and 20% and 10% each. Tories with a handy win on 40%.
Coupon elections where only one of them stands in Remain seats?
Man, you Brits are REALLY up past your bedtime tonight.
It’s a genuinely fascinating election (Even tho it’s local).
Unlike 2001
What we’re seeing here could shape Uk politics for 20 years. And we’ve yet to do Wales and Scotland
Only fun I had observing 2001 GE up close (not really, but was in UK) was
> meeting Malcolm Rifkind by pure happenstance, was driving in outskirts of Edinburgh when I spotted him campaign, parked and chatted with him for a few minutes; he was rather bewildered that I knew who he was - "Are you are voter? "Not here, Sir Malcolm. Not here!"
> listening to Charles Kennedy on the radio, such as sooooooothing voice and a nice way of explaining what he & the Lib Dems were all about (that year anyway).
> looking at pictures of ffion Hague, a truly beautiful woman, and she seemed very nice about it; say what you want about her hubby, but fact that he snared her for his mate gave me at least one thing I could admire (and envy!) him for.
The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors
Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
Tories can still win places that were 60% Remain, if Labour + LibDem + Green stand and get 30% and 20% and 10% each. Tories with a handy win on 40%.
Coupon elections where only one of them stands in Remain seats?
Pragmatically is there another way? Although the coalition is more than likely reliant on the SNP no?
48% voted Remain but only around 30% support Labour. That's their problem.
Yes, indeed, the Remain vote is helplessly splitting, the Leave vote has just one home. A kind of genius. Boris really should get over himself and make Dom Cummings a Duke
Wretched for the LibDems though in a seat they once held at Westminster. One to watch.
I think that's fairly typical isn't it?
LibDems have a popular MP who builds a great local organisation: when the MP goes, then so does the local organisation.
Absolutely true, and I say that as someone who grew up in the constituency that was held for many years by Libdem Russell Johnson, and after a brief flirtation with Labour during the early Blair years was then won and held by Danny Alexander. It is now an SNP safe seat at both Westminster and Holyrood. I now live in the constituency that was once held by Sir Robert Smith with the neighbouring constituency of Gordon being held by Malcolm Bruce. These two former Libdem strongholds are now a straight Scottish Conservative vs SNP political battle ground.
Comments
I don't think we should be surprised that the voters have said "thank you".
But I also don't think we should forget that voters are forgetful folk. What they care about in May 2024 may be different to May 2021.
Con: 50.3% (+33.9)
Lab: 41.4% (-12.3)
Grn: 5.5% (+2.4)
LDem: 2.8% (-0.9)
Con GAIN from Lab
LibDems have a popular MP who builds a great local organisation: when the MP goes, then so does the local organisation.
@JoshHalliday
Labour source thinks they’ve lost Hartlepool by 5,000 to 6,000 votes. They were defending a 3,595 majority."
https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1390479578104217601
Con vote well up in all four Colchester wards.
‘Worse for Labour, there wasn’t a huge UKIP vote in the Redditch seats. This is just pure realignment stuff.’
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1390481841589735430?s=21
NE was the amuse bouche. Midlands is the banquet.....
Con: 50.3% (+33.9)
Lab: 41.4% (-12.3)
Grn: 5.5% (+2.4)
LDem: 2.8% (-0.9)
Con GAIN
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Central (Redditch) council result:
Con: 45.3% (+14.8)
Lab: 42.4% (-1.3)
Grn: 7.0% (+3.7)
LDem: 5.2% (+0.8)
No UKIP (-15.3) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab"
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390482801640812545
Could be the John Quincy Adams of the 21st Century!
Boris reaps the rewards
https://fullfact.org/economy/11-million-cladding-crisis/
Con: 52.8% (+21.9)
Lab: 34.7% (-4.5)
Grn: 7.1% (+4.2)
LDem: 5.4% (+1.0)
No UKIP (-19.9) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab
@BritainElects
Matchborough (Redditch) council result:
Con: 52.8% (+21.9)
Lab: 34.7% (-4.5)
Grn: 7.1% (+4.2)
LDem: 5.4% (+1.0)
No UKIP (-19.9) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab"
The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors
Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
Have gained all four seats declared.
Unlike 2001
What we’re seeing here could shape Uk politics for 20 years. And we’ve yet to do Wales and Scotland
And some just regular coke.
Con: 54.1% (+35.7)
Lab: 36.7% (-9.2)
LDem: 4.6% (-0.6)
Grn: 4.5% (+1.6)
No UKIP (-25.1) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab"
Coupon elections where only one of them stands in Remain seats?
Con: 59.9% (+25.6)
Lab: 32.5% (-9.1)
LDem: 7.6% (+2.9)
No UKIP (-15.7) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab"
> meeting Malcolm Rifkind by pure happenstance, was driving in outskirts of Edinburgh when I spotted him campaign, parked and chatted with him for a few minutes; he was rather bewildered that I knew who he was - "Are you are voter? "Not here, Sir Malcolm. Not here!"
> listening to Charles Kennedy on the radio, such as sooooooothing voice and a nice way of explaining what he & the Lib Dems were all about (that year anyway).
> looking at pictures of ffion Hague, a truly beautiful woman, and she seemed very nice about it; say what you want about her hubby, but fact that he snared her for his mate gave me at least one thing I could admire (and envy!) him for.
New Dash Cam Angle Of Failed Heist Shows Prinsloo's Epic Driving Skills
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCuZuclmY_Y
@BritainElects
St Chad's (Sunderland) council result:
Con: 59.9% (+25.6)
Lab: 32.5% (-9.1)
LDem: 7.6% (+2.9)
No UKIP (-15.7) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab"
Though I'm sure you can NOT tell!
New Riders of the Purple Sage - Panama Red
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgB-3aANe0
Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)
No UKIP (-23.3)
Con GAIN from Lab
More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.
@BritainElects
Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:
Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)
No UKIP (-23.3)
Con GAIN from Lab
More: http://newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008."
Best result so far?
Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)
Lab GAIN from LDem
More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward
First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am
Remainia to the rescue.
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
Pallion (Sunderland) council result:
LDem: 59.4% (+55.2)
Lab: 19.8% (-29.3)
Con: 16.9% (+4.7)
Grn: 3.8% (+0.5)
No UKIP (-28.0) as prev.
LDem GAIN from Lab
Serious squeaky bum time for Labour.
Labour candidate found in bed with dead girl AND live boy? And a goat?
The Byrds- Eight Miles High
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J74ttSR8lEg&list=RDMM&index=2
Loretta Lynn - Coal Miner's Daughter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM84OekHtAQ&list=RDMM&index=14
By-election - 42%
Locals - 47%
Seems strange that locals would be higher.
Con: 45.4% (+34.4)
Lab: 39.3% (-4.8)
IndyGrp: 15.3% (+15.3)
No UKIP (-42.1) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab
Woof.
https://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/north_essex_news/19284970.live-updates-colchester-council-elections-2021/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-concede-hartlepool-election-lost-24057437
Los Lobos - La Bamba
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6T85X1ClmI&list=RDMM&index=4
THIS is the song you play, when you want the girls to jump up and dance!
And the boys too!!