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Friends, countrymen, lend me your Keirs, this is going to be a long night but who does this higher t

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.

    Gadzooks.
    To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
    Just on the number from last time 5k majority and on on decreased turnout less. The worry for labour must be what is seen elsewhere - Tories not just picking up bxt party but exceeding it
    I forecast Con 13k vs 11.5k for Lab. I think my Lab number will only be slightly out, but Cons will be around 16-17k.
    Sky 58% voted
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Better for Labour


    Old Heath and The Hythe (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 53.3% (+13.1)
    Con: 26.6% (+11.1)
    Grn: 10.9% (-5.2)
    LDem: 9.1% (-17.6)

    Lab HOLD
    More:

    Wretched for the LibDems though in a seat they once held at Westminster. One to watch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.

    Gadzooks.
    To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
    Isn't that a bit of a shock? It wasn't a guarantee that all of the UKIP votes would go Blue.
    Yes: I assumed than 60% of UKIP/BXP would go to Con, 20% would go Lab, and 20% would stay home. So it's a big move towards Con.
    I recall when received opinion said ‘these voters may go BXP or UKIP, they will never go Tory’. Oops
    The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and vaccines.

    I don't think we should be surprised that the voters have said "thank you".

    But I also don't think we should forget that voters are forgetful folk. What they care about in May 2024 may be different to May 2021.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lodge Park (Redditch) council result:

    Con: 50.3% (+33.9)
    Lab: 41.4% (-12.3)
    Grn: 5.5% (+2.4)
    LDem: 2.8% (-0.9)

    Con GAIN from Lab
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660

    Meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    Politico.com - MAGA world pans [US Rep Elise] Stefanik
    Donald Trump’s populist base has serious issues with the New York congresswoman who’s poised to replace Rep. Liz Cheney.

    . . . Within minutes of Trump’s endorsement of the New York congresswoman for GOP conference chair on Wednesday, top MAGA voices erupted in anger — a rare break with the former president. The invective aimed at Stefanik, who was perceived to be insufficiently conservative and a relative newcomer to the Trump cause, continued to zoom through the MAGA-sphere on Thursday. . . .

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/06/elise-stefanik-maga-trump-485584

    Do you think Trump is expecting inducements for his patronage?
    Doubt it. Not because he wouldn't IF he needed the money. But right now he's raking it in from the MAGA maniacs, and of course raking his personal cut off the top (expenses, you know).
    I suppose the party is just further beholden to the man.

    Not knowing anything about Republican machinations I was assuming one of the acolytes was in with a chance, Pompeo in particular. but could a Trump be on the ticket 2024?
    Pompeo is NOT a hot prospect, though he'd like to be. De Santis is currently leading the rabid Republican pack.

    Trumpsky do a Grover Cleveland? Or try to?

    My guess is that The Donald would rather be Kingmaker than Kingfish = POTUS.

    Been there, done that.
    Ah I was thinking more of the progeny. If all the nomination takes is a plurality then....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161

    Leon said:

    Better for Labour


    Old Heath and The Hythe (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 53.3% (+13.1)
    Con: 26.6% (+11.1)
    Grn: 10.9% (-5.2)
    LDem: 9.1% (-17.6)

    Lab HOLD
    More:

    Wretched for the LibDems though in a seat they once held at Westminster. One to watch.
    I think that's fairly typical isn't it?

    LibDems have a popular MP who builds a great local organisation: when the MP goes, then so does the local organisation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "Josh Halliday
    @JoshHalliday

    Labour source thinks they’ve lost Hartlepool by 5,000 to 6,000 votes. They were defending a 3,595 majority."

    https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1390479578104217601
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.

    Gadzooks.
    To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
    Just on the number from last time 5k majority and on on decreased turnout less. The worry for labour must be what is seen elsewhere - Tories not just picking up bxt party but exceeding it
    I forecast Con 13k vs 11.5k for Lab. I think my Lab number will only be slightly out, but Cons will be around 16-17k.
    Sky 58% voted
    Dayum!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited May 2021
    Two strong holds for Con in Colchester.

    Con vote well up in all four Colchester wards.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.

    Gadzooks.
    To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
    Isn't that a bit of a shock? It wasn't a guarantee that all of the UKIP votes would go Blue.
    Owen Jones made that point. It went wrong for Labour post 2017.

    "@OwenJones84
    This denialism is the problem.

    UKIP's vote was higher in Hartlepool in 2015 than the Brexit Party was in 2019.

    But in 2017, UKIP's collapse boosted Labour and won it over half the vote.

    Why can't Labour pull the same trick with Brexit voters today?"


    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1390423898504708105
    He doesn't quite get that Boris delivering Brexit might attract them
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.

    Gadzooks.
    To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
    Isn't that a bit of a shock? It wasn't a guarantee that all of the UKIP votes would go Blue.
    Yes: I assumed than 60% of UKIP/BXP would go to Con, 20% would go Lab, and 20% would stay home. So it's a big move towards Con.
    I recall when received opinion said ‘these voters may go BXP or UKIP, they will never go Tory’. Oops
    The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and vaccines.

    I don't think we should be surprised that the voters have said "thank you".

    But I also don't think we should forget that voters are forgetful folk. What they care about in May 2024 may be different to May 2021.
    I recall a certain Theresa May who called a general election off the back of some far-reaching local election results in 2017. Seemed to work out well for her, that... ;)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    Politico.com - MAGA world pans [US Rep Elise] Stefanik
    Donald Trump’s populist base has serious issues with the New York congresswoman who’s poised to replace Rep. Liz Cheney.

    . . . Within minutes of Trump’s endorsement of the New York congresswoman for GOP conference chair on Wednesday, top MAGA voices erupted in anger — a rare break with the former president. The invective aimed at Stefanik, who was perceived to be insufficiently conservative and a relative newcomer to the Trump cause, continued to zoom through the MAGA-sphere on Thursday. . . .

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/06/elise-stefanik-maga-trump-485584

    Do you think Trump is expecting inducements for his patronage?
    Doubt it. Not because he wouldn't IF he needed the money. But right now he's raking it in from the MAGA maniacs, and of course raking his personal cut off the top (expenses, you know).
    Say what you like about Donald Trump, at least he paid for his own gold wallpaper.
    Did he? I thought it has been alleged that he was rather keen on using his charity as a personal piggy bank.
    Yes, but at least it was his own charity.
    Trumpsky IS his own charity. The only one that he contributes to, ever, forever.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Better for Labour


    Old Heath and The Hythe (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 53.3% (+13.1)
    Con: 26.6% (+11.1)
    Grn: 10.9% (-5.2)
    LDem: 9.1% (-17.6)

    Lab HOLD

    You can almost predict how a result will go by asking whether it's an area where a lot of people with Woke opinions might live. Colchester is a university town so there will be at least some areas in that category. Nuneaton, not so much.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Labour think they have lost Hartlepool by 5-6k.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Labour chappie in Hartlepool conceding defeat and saying that 'it's quite clear that we're not close' while looking pretty upset.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Sounds like Labour are conceding it. So almost nailed on Tory gain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wow, seen someone semi-credible on twitter claiming that they think that Con wins Hartlepool by 20pts.

    Gadzooks.
    To be fair, we're seeing Cons hoovering up the UKIP/BXP vote everywhere, which would be consistent with a victory of that margin in Hartlepool.
    Isn't that a bit of a shock? It wasn't a guarantee that all of the UKIP votes would go Blue.
    Yes: I assumed than 60% of UKIP/BXP would go to Con, 20% would go Lab, and 20% would stay home. So it's a big move towards Con.
    I recall when received opinion said ‘these voters may go BXP or UKIP, they will never go Tory’. Oops
    The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson delivered Brexit and vaccines.

    I don't think we should be surprised that the voters have said "thank you".

    But I also don't think we should forget that voters are forgetful folk. What they care about in May 2024 may be different to May 2021.
    I recall a certain Theresa May who called a general election off the back of some far-reaching local election results in 2017. Seemed to work out well for her, that... ;)
    Didn't she win a by-election from the opposition too...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    ‘Am told Labour group in Redditch fear they lose every seat they’re defending on the council tonight’

    ‘Worse for Labour, there wasn’t a huge UKIP vote in the Redditch seats. This is just pure realignment stuff.’

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1390481841589735430?s=21
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Redditch: Tories gain Lodge Park from Labour.

    NE was the amuse bouche. Midlands is the banquet.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "Lodge Park (Redditch) council result:

    Con: 50.3% (+33.9)
    Lab: 41.4% (-12.3)
    Grn: 5.5% (+2.4)
    LDem: 2.8% (-0.9)

    Con GAIN



    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Central (Redditch) council result:

    Con: 45.3% (+14.8)
    Lab: 42.4% (-1.3)
    Grn: 7.0% (+3.7)
    LDem: 5.2% (+0.8)

    No UKIP (-15.3) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390482801640812545
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    Politico.com - MAGA world pans [US Rep Elise] Stefanik
    Donald Trump’s populist base has serious issues with the New York congresswoman who’s poised to replace Rep. Liz Cheney.

    . . . Within minutes of Trump’s endorsement of the New York congresswoman for GOP conference chair on Wednesday, top MAGA voices erupted in anger — a rare break with the former president. The invective aimed at Stefanik, who was perceived to be insufficiently conservative and a relative newcomer to the Trump cause, continued to zoom through the MAGA-sphere on Thursday. . . .

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/06/elise-stefanik-maga-trump-485584

    Do you think Trump is expecting inducements for his patronage?
    Doubt it. Not because he wouldn't IF he needed the money. But right now he's raking it in from the MAGA maniacs, and of course raking his personal cut off the top (expenses, you know).
    I suppose the party is just further beholden to the man.

    Not knowing anything about Republican machinations I was assuming one of the acolytes was in with a chance, Pompeo in particular. but could a Trump be on the ticket 2024?
    Pompeo is NOT a hot prospect, though he'd like to be. De Santis is currently leading the rabid Republican pack.

    Trumpsky do a Grover Cleveland? Or try to?

    My guess is that The Donald would rather be Kingmaker than Kingfish = POTUS.

    Been there, done that.
    Ah I was thinking more of the progeny. If all the nomination takes is a plurality then....
    Yours truly is more electable than any of Trumpsky's spawn. With possible exception of Barron, just too early to tell.

    Could be the John Quincy Adams of the 21st Century!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Leon said:

    ‘Am told Labour group in Redditch fear they lose every seat they’re defending on the council tonight’

    ‘Worse for Labour, there wasn’t a huge UKIP vote in the Redditch seats. This is just pure realignment stuff.’

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1390481841589735430?s=21

    Labour found dead in a Red-ditch?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Redditch was 62% leave in 2016

    Boris reaps the rewards
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660

    Nunu3 said:

    The problem is not the leader of Labour, as I've said before, its that Labour is a fundamentally broken institution, with an appeal that is too narrow.

    I'm not sure the appeal is too much of a problem but the demography is now v-unfavourable.

    Is this the Cummings effect: pushing the conservatives to grasp the disenfranchised lower-middle incomes?
    Part Cummings; part Boris. Broken record mode ON. Boris won in 2019 by running on Labour's 2017 platform.

    So why vote Labour in 2021? More nurses? More infrastructure spending? More investment up north? You can get all those from Boris.

    I suppose the Labour party will have to grin and bear it for the foreseeable.

    For me this is what happens when you loose your party's base through triangulation. Its just that the home counties are yet to feel the political alienation of the northern small towners.
    Theresa May spoke about the JAMs who had lost out under Cameron. Just About Managing. Maybe those small-C conservative JAMs are the Tory equivalent of Labour's lost voters left behind.
    And a good proportion will be having to fund the cladding work on their mis-sold high rises.
    Good proportion?!? Well below 1% will be affected
    'Between 760,000 and 1.36 million people who are financially affected by the cladding crisis, either as owner-occupiers or landlords.'

    https://fullfact.org/economy/11-million-cladding-crisis/
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    This labour chappie sounds about 10 minutes away from crossing the floor.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Man, you Brits are REALLY up past your bedtime tonight.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Matchborough (Redditch) council result:

    Con: 52.8% (+21.9)
    Lab: 34.7% (-4.5)
    Grn: 7.1% (+4.2)
    LDem: 5.4% (+1.0)

    No UKIP (-19.9) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Matchborough (Redditch) council result:

    Con: 52.8% (+21.9)
    Lab: 34.7% (-4.5)
    Grn: 7.1% (+4.2)
    LDem: 5.4% (+1.0)

    No UKIP (-19.9) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    The country is dividing between Leave and Remain

    The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors

    Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Leon said:

    The country is dividing between Leave and Remain

    The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors

    Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed

    ...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Con total landslide in Redditch.

    Have gained all four seats declared.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Man, you Brits are REALLY up past your bedtime tonight.

    It’s a genuinely fascinating election (Even tho it’s local).

    Unlike 2001

    What we’re seeing here could shape Uk politics for 20 years. And we’ve yet to do Wales and Scotland
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Man, you Brits are REALLY up past your bedtime tonight.

    Some of us are doing Diet Coke.

    And some just regular coke.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "#StarmerOut" trending
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660

    Leon said:

    The country is dividing between Leave and Remain

    The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors

    Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed

    ...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
    Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    1 more Con gain, 1 more Lab hold in Sunderland. Local journalist says that if repeated in a GE, Con gain Sunderland central.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited May 2021
    Boris is like the famous Kool Aid man...if there is a wall to smash through...


  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Chameleon said:

    1 more Con gain, 1 more Lab hold in Sunderland. Local journalist says that if repeated in a GE, Con gain Sunderland central.

    I've said it before, and i'll say it again: gadzooks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "Greenlands (Redditch) council result:

    Con: 54.1% (+35.7)
    Lab: 36.7% (-9.2)
    LDem: 4.6% (-0.6)
    Grn: 4.5% (+1.6)

    No UKIP (-25.1) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Leon said:

    The country is dividing between Leave and Remain

    The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors

    Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed

    ...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
    Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
    Tories can still win places that were 60% Remain, if Labour + LibDem + Green stand and get 30% and 20% and 10% each. Tories with a handy win on 40%.

    Coupon elections where only one of them stands in Remain seats?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    Leon said:

    The country is dividing between Leave and Remain

    The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors

    Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed

    ...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
    Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
    Tories can still win places that were 60% Remain, if Labour + LibDem + Green stand and get 30% and 20% and 10% each. Tories with a handy win on 40%.

    Coupon elections where only one of them stands in Remain seats?
    No ideas, please.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    "St Chad's (Sunderland) council result:

    Con: 59.9% (+25.6)
    Lab: 32.5% (-9.1)
    LDem: 7.6% (+2.9)

    No UKIP (-15.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited May 2021
    Jim MacMahon Labour MP claiming on Sky, Hartlepool defeat nothing to do with Brexit....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Andy_JS said:

    "Greenlands (Redditch) council result:

    Con: 54.1% (+35.7)
    Lab: 36.7% (-9.2)
    LDem: 4.6% (-0.6)
    Grn: 4.5% (+1.6)

    No UKIP (-25.1) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab"

    22.5% swing Labour --> Con. 17-22% seems to be the ballpark there. Let's see how places like Coventry and Wolverhampton shake out.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Man, you Brits are REALLY up past your bedtime tonight.

    It’s a genuinely fascinating election (Even tho it’s local).

    Unlike 2001

    What we’re seeing here could shape Uk politics for 20 years. And we’ve yet to do Wales and Scotland
    Only fun I had observing 2001 GE up close (not really, but was in UK) was

    > meeting Malcolm Rifkind by pure happenstance, was driving in outskirts of Edinburgh when I spotted him campaign, parked and chatted with him for a few minutes; he was rather bewildered that I knew who he was - "Are you are voter? "Not here, Sir Malcolm. Not here!"

    > listening to Charles Kennedy on the radio, such as sooooooothing voice and a nice way of explaining what he & the Lib Dems were all about (that year anyway).

    > looking at pictures of ffion Hague, a truly beautiful woman, and she seemed very nice about it; say what you want about her hubby, but fact that he snared her for his mate gave me at least one thing I could admire (and envy!) him for.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    Sky News coverage is utter shit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    Totally O/T...new angle of that viral video from SA

    New Dash Cam Angle Of Failed Heist Shows Prinsloo's Epic Driving Skills

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCuZuclmY_Y
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    St Chad's (Sunderland) council result:

    Con: 59.9% (+25.6)
    Lab: 32.5% (-9.1)
    LDem: 7.6% (+2.9)

    No UKIP (-15.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab"
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    edited May 2021

    Leon said:

    The country is dividing between Leave and Remain

    The problem for Labour is that Remain is incredibly concentrated in london, Scotland, a few university towns, Gibraltar, my neighbors

    Whereas there are hundreds of Leave constituencies from the southern English shires to the welsh valleys to Hartlepool, Hereford and Helston. Leave is efficiently distributed

    ...and Remain remains are being fought over by Labour, LibDems, Greens, SNP, PC.... Tories easily come through the middle in Remain areas too.
    Yep, caught between demographics, voter distribution and FPTP. I'm not sure you could even gerrymander it better.
    Tories can still win places that were 60% Remain, if Labour + LibDem + Green stand and get 30% and 20% and 10% each. Tories with a handy win on 40%.

    Coupon elections where only one of them stands in Remain seats?
    Pragmatically is there another way? Although the coalition is more than likely reliant on the SNP no?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Jim MacMahon Labour MP claiming on Sky, Hartlepool defeat nothing to do with Brexit....

    Prat.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021

    Man, you Brits are REALLY up past your bedtime tonight.

    Some of us are doing Diet Coke.

    And some just regular coke.
    Am personally taking full advantage of Washington State's marijuana legalization right now.

    Though I'm sure you can NOT tell!

    New Riders of the Purple Sage - Panama Red
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgB-3aANe0
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    The New Statesman site is very patchy in delivering the results. You get the impression the person inputting their data keeps going off for a cry...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    The New Statesman site is very patchy in delivering the results. You get the impression the person inputting their data keeps going off for a cry...

    I'd have never done that with my spreadsheet. ;)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    RobD said:

    The New Statesman site is very patchy in delivering the results. You get the impression the person inputting their data keeps going off for a cry...

    I'd have never done that with my spreadsheet. ;)
    #SternerStuff
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Leon said:

    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.

    Only up 41.5%? Sad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.

    Only up 41.5%? Sad.
    #BorisOut
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: http://newstatesman.com/politics/elect

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Leon said:

    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.

    27.1% swing Lab --> Con

    Best result so far?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
    Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
    LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
    Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
    More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward

    First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am

    Remainia to the rescue.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.

    Only up 41.5%? Sad.
    I want to see Jeremy Vine showing what a 41.5% Lab > Con swing would look like across the Commons
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Chameleon said:

    New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
    Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
    LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
    Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
    More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward

    First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am

    Remainia to the rescue.

    The nation is bifurcated
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.

    Only up 41.5%? Sad.
    I want to see Jeremy Vine showing what a 41.5% Lab > Con swing would look like across the Commons
    An extension of the government benches may be in order.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    edited May 2021
    So if there are 27% swings to the cons in some places, where are the swings against?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1m
    Pallion (Sunderland) council result:

    LDem: 59.4% (+55.2)
    Lab: 19.8% (-29.3)
    Con: 16.9% (+4.7)
    Grn: 3.8% (+0.5)

    No UKIP (-28.0) as prev.

    LDem GAIN from Lab


    Serious squeaky bum time for Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Chameleon said:


    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1m
    Pallion (Sunderland) council result:

    LDem: 59.4% (+55.2)
    Lab: 19.8% (-29.3)
    Con: 16.9% (+4.7)
    Grn: 3.8% (+0.5)

    No UKIP (-28.0) as prev.

    LDem GAIN from Lab


    Serious squeaky bum time for Labour.

    Hats off to the Lib Dems, that's a huge increase.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
    Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
    LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
    Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
    More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward

    First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am

    Remainia to the rescue.

    The nation is bifurcated
    Is THAT what the kids are calling IT these days?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Chameleon said:


    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1m
    Pallion (Sunderland) council result:

    LDem: 59.4% (+55.2)
    Lab: 19.8% (-29.3)
    Con: 16.9% (+4.7)
    Grn: 3.8% (+0.5)

    No UKIP (-28.0) as prev.

    LDem GAIN from Lab


    Serious squeaky bum time for Labour.

    That is just a LOL result.

    Labour candidate found in bed with dead girl AND live boy? And a goat?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
    Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
    LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
    Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
    More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward

    First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am

    Remainia to the rescue.

    The nation is bifurcated
    48% voted Remain but only around 30% support Labour. That's their problem.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I believe that Labour need 2 more seats to retain Sunderland, one issue - only 4 seats left.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Chameleon said:


    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1m
    Pallion (Sunderland) council result:

    LDem: 59.4% (+55.2)
    Lab: 19.8% (-29.3)
    Con: 16.9% (+4.7)
    Grn: 3.8% (+0.5)

    No UKIP (-28.0) as prev.

    LDem GAIN from Lab


    Serious squeaky bum time for Labour.

    That is just a LOL result.

    Labour candidate found in bed with dead girl AND live boy? And a goat?
    Note that the Cons have quietly (or loudly) ticked up almost everywhere. Suggests a national swing in their favour
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Here's how Tories are feeling right now . . .

    The Byrds- Eight Miles High
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J74ttSR8lEg&list=RDMM&index=2
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558

    So if there are 27% swings to the cons in some places, where are the swings against?

    Islington.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited May 2021
    A West Midlands Tory MP seems very confident Andy Street has won West Midland Mayoral reelection.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Exhall (Nuneaton and Bedworth) council result:

    Con: 59.7% (+41.5)
    Lab: 30.6% (-12.7)
    Grn: 6.5% (-5.4)
    Oth: 3.2% (-0.2)

    No UKIP (-23.3)

    Con GAIN from Lab
    More: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

    Conservatives now have a majority on Nuneaton & Bedworth. First time since 2008.

    Only up 41.5%? Sad.
    I want to see Jeremy Vine showing what a 41.5% Lab > Con swing would look like across the Commons
    An extension of the government benches may be in order.
    Plenty of room for social distancing on the Opposition benches....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited May 2021
    Hartlepool turnout = 42%. Earlier reports on Sky News were wrong.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    Hartlepool -- no money left on Betfair. All the 1.01 has been taken.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Here's how Tories are feeling right now . . .

    The Byrds- Eight Miles High
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J74ttSR8lEg&list=RDMM&index=2

    Nah - Cloud Nine mate.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
    Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
    LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
    Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
    More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward

    First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am

    Remainia to the rescue.

    The nation is bifurcated
    48% voted Remain but only around 30% support Labour. That's their problem.
    Yes, indeed, the Remain vote is helplessly splitting, the Leave vote has just one home. A kind of genius. Boris really should get over himself and make Dom Cummings a Duke
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Andy_JS said:

    Hartlepool turnout = 47%.

    Was it the council or the parliamentary election?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161

    Chameleon said:


    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1m
    Pallion (Sunderland) council result:

    LDem: 59.4% (+55.2)
    Lab: 19.8% (-29.3)
    Con: 16.9% (+4.7)
    Grn: 3.8% (+0.5)

    No UKIP (-28.0) as prev.

    LDem GAIN from Lab


    Serious squeaky bum time for Labour.

    That is just a LOL result.

    Labour candidate found in bed with dead girl AND live boy? And a goat?
    That's the second seat in Sunderland where the LibDems have gone from 5% to first.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    42.5% for the parliamentary election. Much lower than thought.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Given where the most of the reported results so far are coming from, this seems appropriate (at least to me)

    Loretta Lynn - Coal Miner's Daughter
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM84OekHtAQ&list=RDMM&index=14
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    Chameleon said:

    New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
    Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
    LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
    Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
    More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward

    First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am

    Remainia to the rescue.

    Not true, Labour won a seat of the LibDems in Newcastle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    RobD said:

    42.5% for the parliamentary election. Much lower than thought.

    Labour will probably be below 10,000 votes in that case.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063
    RobD said:

    42.5% for the parliamentary election. Much lower than thought.

    Yes Sky had indicated 58% earlier
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Sky saying Hartlepool turnout:

    By-election - 42%
    Locals - 47%

    Seems strange that locals would be higher.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 43.5% (+21.0)
    Con: 25.3% (+3.4)
    LDem: 22.6% (-13.4)
    Grn: 8.6% (-9.0)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
    More: https://newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/2021-english-local-election-results-ward-ward

    First* Labour gain of the night - Friday, 03.08am

    Remainia to the rescue.

    Not true, Labour won a seat of the LibDems in Newcastle.
    Apparently, Fake News
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited May 2021
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Hartlepool turnout = 47%.

    Was it the council or the parliamentary election?
    42%, they reported it wrong. Parliamentary I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    MikeL said:

    Sky saying Hartlepool turnout:

    By-election - 42%
    Locals - 47%

    Seems strange that locals would be higher.

    Perhaps MI5 haven't deposited the extra Tory votes yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    Sky...always wrong for too long...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Chadwell St Mary (Thurrock) council result

    Con: 45.4% (+34.4)
    Lab: 39.3% (-4.8)
    IndyGrp: 15.3% (+15.3)

    No UKIP (-42.1) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    Woof.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MikeL said:

    Sky saying Hartlepool turnout:

    By-election - 42%
    Locals - 47%

    Seems strange that locals would be higher.

    Maybe the two numbers got flipped by accident? Happened already tonight somewhere.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    edited May 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Better for Labour


    Old Heath and The Hythe (Colchester) council result:

    Lab: 53.3% (+13.1)
    Con: 26.6% (+11.1)
    Grn: 10.9% (-5.2)
    LDem: 9.1% (-17.6)

    Lab HOLD
    More:

    Wretched for the LibDems though in a seat they once held at Westminster. One to watch.
    I think that's fairly typical isn't it?

    LibDems have a popular MP who builds a great local organisation: when the MP goes, then so does the local organisation.
    Absolutely true, and I say that as someone who grew up in the constituency that was held for many years by Libdem Russell Johnson, and after a brief flirtation with Labour during the early Blair years was then won and held by Danny Alexander. It is now an SNP safe seat at both Westminster and Holyrood. I now live in the constituency that was once held by Sir Robert Smith with the neighbouring constituency of Gordon being held by Malcolm Bruce. These two former Libdem strongholds are now a straight Scottish Conservative vs SNP political battle ground.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558



    MikeL said:

    Sky saying Hartlepool turnout:

    By-election - 42%
    Locals - 47%

    Seems strange that locals would be higher.

    Maybe the two numbers got flipped by accident? Happened already tonight somewhere.
    If locals means the mayoral election, I wouldn't be surprised. The local mayor is very popular.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2021
    Lab *hold* Sunderland. Majority of a couple, which will be lost next year.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021
    And in case anyone needs to wake up and shake a leg . . .


    Los Lobos - La Bamba
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6T85X1ClmI&list=RDMM&index=4

    THIS is the song you play, when you want the girls to jump up and dance!

    And the boys too!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    On the BBC site, Labour have lost a third of their councillors - was 27 to 18 now (so far).
This discussion has been closed.