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Friends, countrymen, lend me your Keirs, this is going to be a long night but who does this higher t

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 6 in General
Friends, countrymen, lend me your Keirs, this is going to be a long night but who does this higher than expected turnout favour? – politicalbetting.com

Blimey @joncraig saying on @SkyNews Hartlepool result could be as late as 7am

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944

    Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
    Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
    LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)

    No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some.
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Another case of the Labour vote holding fairly well but Con + UKIP uniting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    That's the end of my punning for tonight.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,424
    edited May 6
    The Blukip party is winning.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,105
    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Kitty Brewster is one of the Blyth wards gone then but Croft and Isabella stay Labour
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944

    Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
    Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
    LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)

    No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some.
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    Yes, I think that's the major story of the evening (so far): UKIP/BXP vote going pretty much completely to the Conservatives.

    Which is going to result in a terrrrrrrible night for both Labour and the LDs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944

    Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
    Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
    LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)

    No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some.
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    Con eating not just UKIP votes but Lab and LD votes too? Lab are down and a quarter of LD votes have gone blue too.

    Wowsers, the tectonic plates have really shifted.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    https://twitter.com/agcolehamilton/status/1390413189700063239?s=21

    Alex Cole-Hamilton 🔶
    @agcolehamilton

    2h
    Key take away from the last hour:
    In our best areas turnout is at 2014 independence referendum levels. In the SNP’s best areas turnout is absolutely cratering.
    #SP21

    Standard pumping tweet I expect. Would be nice if true - I can certainly see why Nat enthusiasm may be low.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Sunderland- Hendon

    Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377
    Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110
    Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75
    Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849
    Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029

    LD gain.
    LD polled 6% in 2019
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,424
    Sarwar did well I thought in the campaign. Deserves a good result.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006

    Sunderland- Hendon

    Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377
    Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110
    Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75
    Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849
    Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029

    LD gain.
    LD polled 6% in 2019

    Which goes to show that there's a fair degree of random variation in council results.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Northumberland

    ISABELLA
    Anna Watson (LAB) - 482
    Alice May Levy (CON) - 340
    LAB HOLD

    2017
    Gordon Webb Lab 515 63.9%
    John Moore UKIP 130 16.1%
    Stephen Mallam C 120 14.9%
    Sandra Stanger LD 41 5.1%

    Croft
    Kath Nisbet (LAB) - 556
    Martin Tulip (CON) - 293
    Mark Peart (REF) - 49
    Paul Edward Taylor (IND) - 28
    LAB HOLD

    2017
    Kath Nisbet Lab 514 59.6%
    Scott Lee C 164 19.0%
    Robert Erskine UKIP 122 14.1%
    Peter Stanger LD 63 7.3%
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Which is going to result in a terrrrrrrible night for both Labour and the LDs.

    LD gain Hendon (Sunderland).

    LDem: 42.2% (+34.8)
    Lab: 34.8% (-30.2)
    Con: 15.5% (-4.8)
    Grn: 4.5% (-2.9)
    UKIP: 3.1% (+3.1)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    edited May 6

    Sunderland- Hendon

    Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377
    Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110
    Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75
    Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849
    Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029

    LD gain.
    LD polled 6% in 2019

    For context, Hendon is in the Sunderland Central constituency. Not an amazing result for Con there
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Hendon ward Sunderland. LD was sixth last time this ward was fought.
    Bloody Brexiters...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944

    Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
    Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
    LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)

    No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some.
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    Yes, I think that's the major story of the evening (so far): UKIP/BXP vote going pretty much completely to the Conservatives.

    Which is going to result in a terrrrrrrible night for both Labour and the LDs.
    I think that the LDs won't have an awful night - in the shires there are certainly rumbles of discontent, enough to make progress in some places I suspect. Not sure I can be so positive about Labour though. My v long odds W.Yorks Mayor bet is looking like a ridiculously good value loser!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    RESULT
    South Jesmond (Newcastle)
    Tom Appleby (LD) - 252
    Tim Downson (GRN) - 344
    Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36
    Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062
    Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72
    Olly Scargill (CON) - 393
    LAB HOLD
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is going to result in a terrrrrrrible night for both Labour and the LDs.

    LD gain Hendon (Sunderland).

    LDem: 42.2% (+34.8)
    Lab: 34.8% (-30.2)
    Con: 15.5% (-4.8)
    Grn: 4.5% (-2.9)
    UKIP: 3.1% (+3.1)
    I suspect the LDs will actually do OK vote share-wise today. I think they'll manage mid-to high teens, and up two or three points on last time.

    But because the Conservatives will have consolidated the UKIP/Conservative vote, they'll be up more, and you'll see the Conservatives make some pretty big gains.

    The more interesting question for the LDs will to see if they manage to fight off the Greens in urban and Southern England.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    South Tyneside - Cleadon Park

    Lab 752
    Con 462
    Green 243
    Ind 242
    Ind 114

    2019 was Lab 44% Green 30% Con 26%
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Live video blog from BritainElects:

    https://www.twitch.tv/britainelects
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    RESULT
    South Jesmond (Newcastle)
    Tom Appleby (LD) - 252
    Tim Downson (GRN) - 344
    Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36
    Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062
    Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72
    Olly Scargill (CON) - 393
    LAB HOLD

    The Tory was a Scargill?
    Love it!!!
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    Sunderland- Hendon

    Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377
    Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110
    Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75
    Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849
    Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029

    LD gain.
    LD polled 6% in 2019

    For context, Hendon is in the Sunderland Central constituency. Not an amazing result for Con there
    To be seen in the context of this trend and Ed Davey visiting during the campaign. Strong ‘winning here’ vibes.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/lib-dem-fightback-comes-brexitland
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair.
    ... and now back to 1.03.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Southwick (Sunderland) council result:

    Lab: 50.8% (-10.0)
    Con: 31.7% (+16.7)
    UKIP: 7.2% (-10.9)
    LDem: 5.8% (+2.4)
    Grn: 4.4% (+1.8)

    Lab HOLD
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Labour hold S Tyneside Fellgate.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Fellgate & Hedworth in South Tyneside

    Audrey Elizabeth Fay Labour Party 1264 Yes
    John Bede Cullen Independent 643
    Holly May Wright Conservative Party 290
    Kelly Louise Hill Green Party 69
    Paul D'Ambrosie Independent 61

    Labour lost to an Independent in 2019
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    Consistently massive swings going on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006

    Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair.
    ... and now back to 1.03.

    Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    Excellent info service from PB. No need to go anywhere else
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Seattle Times ($) COVID-19 death toll is more than double the official count, UW analysis suggests

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    “This analysis just shows how challenging it has been during the pandemic to accurately track the deaths,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said Thursday in a media briefing. “By focusing on COVID’s total death rate, we bring to light just how much greater the impact of COVID has been already and may be in the future.” . . .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353

    Consistently massive swings going on.

    15-25%

    Imagine that in a GE
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214

    RESULT
    South Jesmond (Newcastle)
    Tom Appleby (LD) - 252
    Tim Downson (GRN) - 344
    Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36
    Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062
    Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72
    Olly Scargill (CON) - 393
    LAB HOLD

    With percentages...

    Lab: 49.2% (+12.2)
    Con: 18.2% (+2.6)
    Grn: 15.9% (-10.7)
    LDem: 11.7% (-7.9)
    Reg: 3.3% (+3.3)
    Oth: 1.7% (+0.4)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    rcs1000 said:

    Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair.
    ... and now back to 1.03.

    Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
    The Tories have been massive value since the election was called. At whatever price.
    Every NE poster has been trying to tell everyone else.
    Naebody teks us on like.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Sunderland
    Southwick

    Kelly CHEQUER (Labour Party) 1,208
    Liam Christopher RITCHIE (Conservative Party) 754
    Stephen Thomas HARRISON (UKIP) 171
    Norman Martin DENT (Liberal Democrat) 138
    Morgan Joseph SEED (Green Party) 105

    2019 was Lab 39% UKIP 22% Ind 14 Con 13
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    rcs1000 said:

    Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair.
    ... and now back to 1.03.

    Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
    I have been one of those who said “the Farage vote won’t all go Con when BXP winds up”. I’m starting to think I was wrong.

    Take 2019, give 70% BXP to the Tories, and apply new boundaries. Ouch, Labour. Ouch.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    ‘Well-placed source in #Hartlepool predicts over 50% Tory vote share’

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449419594645514?s=21
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    RESULT
    South Jesmond (Newcastle)
    Tom Appleby (LD) - 252
    Tim Downson (GRN) - 344
    Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36
    Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062
    Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72
    Olly Scargill (CON) - 393
    LAB HOLD

    With percentages...

    Lab: 49.2% (+12.2)
    Con: 18.2% (+2.6)
    Grn: 15.9% (-10.7)
    LDem: 11.7% (-7.9)
    Reg: 3.3% (+3.3)
    Oth: 1.7% (+0.4)
    Posh. Remain.
    Big swing. Greens shock. Loads had them doing well. Tiny subsample, early days...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Leon said:

    ‘Well-placed source in #Hartlepool predicts over 50% Tory vote share’

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449419594645514?s=21

    Even better for the Tories than the poll putting them 17% ahead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595

    Consistently massive swings going on.

    The question that will slowly unfold is will these swings be seen to any degree in Scotland and Wales
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Harton (South Tyneside) council result:

    Lab: 33.9% (-14.0)
    Con: 30.1% (+13.9)
    Ind: 25.8% (+13.6)
    Grn: 10.2% (+10.2)

    No UKIP (-22.7) as prev.

    Lab HOLD

    oof close. Bet the Ind was a Kipper type
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    Leon said:

    ‘Well-placed source in #Hartlepool predicts over 50% Tory vote share’

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449419594645514?s=21

    Terrrrrible knight for Labour if that happens.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Leon said:

    Excellent info service from PB. No need to go anywhere else

    The "recent posts" section of the VoteUK forum may also be useful tonight.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390444498040274944

    Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
    Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
    LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)

    No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some.
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

    I like Kitty.....
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    A Tory candidate in Durham reckons labour sent some of its volunteers for Hartlepool to try to GOTV In Durham. Giving up the seat.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ‘Well-placed source in #Hartlepool predicts over 50% Tory vote share’

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449419594645514?s=21

    Even better for the Tories than the poll putting them 17% ahead.
    Well that poll had them at 50%
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449104472379393

    The numbers are off the charts” in South Blyth apparently - looking good for another gain in Northumberland
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Leon said:

    Consistently massive swings going on.

    15-25%

    Imagine that in a GE
    Part of them already took place in 2019 GE as the benchmark for some of these NE councils is 2016 (Northumberland is 2017 though).
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair.
    ... and now back to 1.03.

    Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
    The Tories have been massive value since the election was called. At whatever price.
    Every NE poster has been trying to tell everyone else.
    Naebody teks us on like.
    If I told you that Henley, Witney, and Windsor were going Green/Labour by massive margins you'd probably give us the same look we gave you when NE'ers said that Hartlepool is going to go Tory by 15%+.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Lol

    Cramlington North (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 76.8% (-14.6)
    Lab: 23.2% (+15.9)

    Con HOLD
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Seghill with Seaton Delaval (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 54.5% (+12.8)
    Lab: 45.5% (-3.1)

    No UKIP (-8.1) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353

    rcs1000 said:

    Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair.
    ... and now back to 1.03.

    Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
    I have been one of those who said “the Farage vote won’t all go Con when BXP winds up”. I’m starting to think I was wrong.

    Take 2019, give 70% BXP to the Tories, and apply new boundaries. Ouch, Labour. Ouch.
    It’s the Boris factor. He looks like he believes in Brexit, for the very good reason that he delivered it. He’s the father of the child. He’s probably used to the role

    For that reason the Leave voters trust him the way they would never trust a Theresa May type

    I’ve been struck by the number of photos, in this campaign, of Boris in a pub, with voters looking at him with big smiles. You can’t fake these shots. If you could, we’d see similar images of sir Kir Royale being adored. We don’t.

    Boris his still got the ability to charm. It’s quite important
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Another Lib Dem gain in Sunderland - Sandhill
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    edited May 6
    Another Lab -> Con seat in Northumberland.

    Con gain from NoC more than nailed on.

    First time Con has had a majority on Northumberland.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,503
    Your periodic reminder that the Democrats lost the South yet, somehow, America has a Democratic president today.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Plessey (Northumberland) council result:

    LDem: 37.6% (-7.4)
    Con: 32.2% (+19.4)
    Lab: 26.0% (-2.3)
    Oth: 4.3% (+2.5)

    LDem HOLD
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Leon said:

    ‘Well-placed source in #Hartlepool predicts over 50% Tory vote share’

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449419594645514?s=21

    Every NE poster has been saying 50%+ Tories for weeks.
    Hadddaway and catch on man.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595

    Seghill with Seaton Delaval (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 54.5% (+12.8)
    Lab: 45.5% (-3.1)

    No UKIP (-8.1) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    You do have to wonder what is going through Starmer's thoughts at this moment
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    Lab gain from LD (narrowly), Ouseburn ward in Newcastle.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    Seghill with Seaton Delaval (Northumberland) council result:

    Con: 54.5% (+12.8)
    Lab: 45.5% (-3.1)

    No UKIP (-8.1) as prev.

    Con GAIN from Lab

    You do have to wonder what is going through Starmer's thoughts at this moment
    He will be hoping they do far better in the south and the West Country. Mayor
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630

    Harton (South Tyneside) council result:

    Lab: 33.9% (-14.0)
    Con: 30.1% (+13.9)
    Ind: 25.8% (+13.6)
    Grn: 10.2% (+10.2)

    No UKIP (-22.7) as prev.

    Lab HOLD

    oof close. Bet the Ind was a Kipper type

    2019 was Lab 46 UKIP 33 Con 21
    Ind was a former coucillor for that ward for the Progressives. Must have lost in 2010
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,006

    As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?

    Yes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    So many of these seats aren't just seeing Con gobble up UKIP, but taking off Lab too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    ‘Well-placed source in #Hartlepool predicts over 50% Tory vote share’

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449419594645514?s=21

    Every NE poster has been saying 50%+ Tories for weeks.
    Hadddaway and catch on man.
    But... it’s Hartlepool

    You understand why it feels incredible

    This is an historic realignment. I think it’s good for the country. Entrenched political fiefdoms are bad. No democratic politician should feel smugly safe, forever

    Labour have to go away and rethink what they want to be. From the ground up. As Jonathan said earlier
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630

    Another Lib Dem gain in Sunderland - Sandhill

    This was was expected. They won both seats in that ward in 2019
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    Labour doing well in Central Newcastle, very badly in Central Sunderland.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    rcs1000 said:

    As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?

    Yes.
    Sky still showing Council changes as 0.

    I'm guessing they won't update that until there's enough declarations that its mathematically guaranteed to be Con overall control, rather than just as it stands?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Silksworth (Sunderland) council result:

    Lab: 42.6% (-8.3)
    Con: 40.8% (+24.2)
    Grn: 6.8% (+1.6)
    LDem: 5.2% (+2.2)
    UKIP: 4.7% (-18.8)

    Lab HOLD
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Sunderland - Barnes

    Richard DUNN (Conservative Party) 1,610
    Rebecca Sarah ATKINSON (Labour Party) 1,367
    Tim ELLIS (Liberal Democrat) 201
    Alyson KORDBARLAG (Green Party) 158


    Con gain.
    Won also in 2019 (36 to 30%)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?

    Sadly. They've been really poor. Borderline corrupt. Council tax raised from an already eye watering level. Appearances in Rotten Boroughs. Glum.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    dixiedean said:

    As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?

    Sadly. They've been really poor. Borderline corrupt. Council tax raised from an already eye watering level. Appearances in Rotten Boroughs. Glum.
    Don't worry — Brexit will fix all that
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318

    Silksworth (Sunderland) council result:

    Lab: 42.6% (-8.3)
    Con: 40.8% (+24.2)
    Grn: 6.8% (+1.6)
    LDem: 5.2% (+2.2)
    UKIP: 4.7% (-18.8)

    Lab HOLD

    2/3rds of Sunderland are up for election right? Could be close for Labour keeping control.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 167
    Labour are gonna lose overall control of Sunderland?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022

    rcs1000 said:

    As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?

    Yes.
    Sky still showing Council changes as 0.

    I'm guessing they won't update that until there's enough declarations that its mathematically guaranteed to be Con overall control, rather than just as it stands?
    Yes, they'll wait until it's official.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    edited May 6
    Last time in Northumberland, control of the council came down to the drawing of lots between the LDs and Tories. The LDs won, denying the Tories control.

    https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/860418039073918977
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Got to feel for SKS with Arsenal getting knocked out too. Going to be a tough night. Only crumb of comfort for Labour is I would hazard a guess that the Northeast is the region where we’ll see the biggest Lab to Con swings.

    Hartlepool is a write off, I was confident from day 1 of a Con win sub 2k margin. I got the first part correct but it increasingly looks like the second part wrong.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630

    Silksworth (Sunderland) council result:

    Lab: 42.6% (-8.3)
    Con: 40.8% (+24.2)
    Grn: 6.8% (+1.6)
    LDem: 5.2% (+2.2)
    UKIP: 4.7% (-18.8)

    Lab HOLD

    Compared to 2019

    Lab +5.1
    Con +21.3
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,012
    Cleadon and East Boldon (South Tyneside)

    Jane Carter (LAB) - 1,300

    Daniel Fisher (Reform) - 63

    Ian Forster (CON) - 1,673

    David Herbert (GRN) - 450

    CON GAIN
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Ouseburn (Newcastle upon Tyne) council result:

    Lab: 44.1% (+7.0)
    LDem: 41.6% (-7.5)
    Grn: 10.0% (+0.6)
    Con: 4.3% (+1.1)

    Lab GAIN from LDem
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,159

    Your periodic reminder that the Democrats lost the South yet, somehow, America has a Democratic president today.

    Not a "Southern Democrat" though. That's no bad thing, of course, but it's relevant that realignment changes parties in quite fundamental ways too. They don't just move on to new hunting grounds but stay basically the same.

    Maybe a Labour of subsidies for higher education, European integration, and international development is a good thing. But it isn't what the Labour Party has historically been about, and that's consequential.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214

    Cleadon and East Boldon (South Tyneside)

    Jane Carter (LAB) - 1,300

    Daniel Fisher (Reform) - 63

    Ian Forster (CON) - 1,673

    David Herbert (GRN) - 450

    CON GAIN

    Green are doing to Lab what UKIP did to Con
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    I think it's safe to say the noises coming out of Labour are no longer an example of expectation management. Party insiders are genuinely expecting a proper kicking

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1390424257906282501
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Chameleon said:

    Lab gain from LD (narrowly), Ouseburn ward in Newcastle.

    Result:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390453425704419330
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    edited May 6
    Sunderland as it stands:

    LAB: 3 (-4)
    LDM: 2 (+2)
    CON: 2 (+2)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    rcs1000 said:

    As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?

    Yes.
    Sky still showing Council changes as 0.

    I'm guessing they won't update that until there's enough declarations that its mathematically guaranteed to be Con overall control, rather than just as it stands?
    Tbf. All the results thus far come from the Blyth Valley constituency. Which was a Tory gain at GE 2019. The vast majority of wards are Labour defences. We have no data from the other 3 constituencies which make up Northumberland.
    Tory gain.
    Unless Ponteland, Hexham and Berwick go trot...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895
    Chameleon said:

    Labour doing well in Central Newcastle, very badly in Central Sunderland.

    Newcastle generally feels a lot less bad. Big city effect?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,012
    Ryhope (Sunderland)

    Usman Ali (CON) - 1,411
    Ellen Ball (LAB and CO-OP) - 1,230
    Marek Filipkowski (UKIP) - 233

    CON GAIN
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Brom said:

    Got to feel for SKS with Arsenal getting knocked out too. Going to be a tough night. Only crumb of comfort for Labour is I would hazard a guess that the Northeast is the region where we’ll see the biggest Lab to Con swings.

    Hartlepool is a write off, I was confident from day 1 of a Con win sub 2k margin. I got the first part correct but it increasingly looks like the second part wrong.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1390452941497176071

    Tory sources now predicting a majority in Hartlepool "of several thousand".
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,503

    Your periodic reminder that the Democrats lost the South yet, somehow, America has a Democratic president today.

    Not a "Southern Democrat" though. That's no bad thing, of course, but it's relevant that realignment changes parties in quite fundamental ways too. They don't just move on to new hunting grounds but stay basically the same.

    Maybe a Labour of subsidies for higher education, European integration, and international development is a good thing. But it isn't what the Labour Party has historically been about, and that's consequential.
    Exactly that. Labour needs to change, just as the Democrats did. I fear it will take them a long time to realise that.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318

    Chameleon said:

    Labour doing well in Central Newcastle, very badly in Central Sunderland.

    Newcastle generally feels a lot less bad. Big city effect?
    Definitely. To me if feels like 20ish years ago Newcastle and Sunderland were pretty equal, whereas now I'd pop Newcastle in the Bristol, Manchester bucket of cool trendy cities for younger people with loads going on, whereas Sunderland has continued to decline.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 167

    Chameleon said:

    Labour doing well in Central Newcastle, very badly in Central Sunderland.

    Newcastle generally feels a lot less bad. Big city effect?
    Big city, big Uni
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Boldon Colliery (South Tyneside) council result:

    Lab: 49.5% (-15.5)
    Ind: 22.4% (+22.4)
    Con: 20.8% (+0.1)
    Grn: 7.2% (-6.0)

    Lab HOLD
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630

    Ryhope (Sunderland)

    Usman Ali (CON) - 1,411
    Ellen Ball (LAB and CO-OP) - 1,230
    Marek Filipkowski (UKIP) - 233

    CON GAIN

    Was UKIP in 2019
This discussion has been closed.