Friends, countrymen, lend me your Keirs, this is going to be a long night but who does this higher than expected turnout favour? – politicalbetting.com
Blimey @joncraig saying on @SkyNews Hartlepool result could be as late as 7am
2h Key take away from the last hour: In our best areas turnout is at 2014 independence referendum levels. In the SNP’s best areas turnout is absolutely cratering. #SP21
Standard pumping tweet I expect. Would be nice if true - I can certainly see why Nat enthusiasm may be low.
Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377 Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110 Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75 Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849 Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029
Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377 Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110 Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75 Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849 Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029
LD gain. LD polled 6% in 2019
Which goes to show that there's a fair degree of random variation in council results.
Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377 Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110 Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75 Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849 Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029
LD gain. LD polled 6% in 2019
For context, Hendon is in the Sunderland Central constituency. Not an amazing result for Con there
Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some. Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
Yes, I think that's the major story of the evening (so far): UKIP/BXP vote going pretty much completely to the Conservatives.
Which is going to result in a terrrrrrrible night for both Labour and the LDs.
I think that the LDs won't have an awful night - in the shires there are certainly rumbles of discontent, enough to make progress in some places I suspect. Not sure I can be so positive about Labour though. My v long odds W.Yorks Mayor bet is looking like a ridiculously good value loser!
RESULT South Jesmond (Newcastle) Tom Appleby (LD) - 252 Tim Downson (GRN) - 344 Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36 Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062 Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72 Olly Scargill (CON) - 393 LAB HOLD
I suspect the LDs will actually do OK vote share-wise today. I think they'll manage mid-to high teens, and up two or three points on last time.
But because the Conservatives will have consolidated the UKIP/Conservative vote, they'll be up more, and you'll see the Conservatives make some pretty big gains.
The more interesting question for the LDs will to see if they manage to fight off the Greens in urban and Southern England.
RESULT South Jesmond (Newcastle) Tom Appleby (LD) - 252 Tim Downson (GRN) - 344 Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36 Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062 Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72 Olly Scargill (CON) - 393 LAB HOLD
Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377 Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110 Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75 Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849 Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029
LD gain. LD polled 6% in 2019
For context, Hendon is in the Sunderland Central constituency. Not an amazing result for Con there
Audrey Elizabeth Fay Labour Party 1264 Yes John Bede Cullen Independent 643 Holly May Wright Conservative Party 290 Kelly Louise Hill Green Party 69 Paul D'Ambrosie Independent 61
Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair. ... and now back to 1.03.
Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
Seattle Times ($) COVID-19 death toll is more than double the official count, UW analysis suggests
A new analysis from scientists at the University of Washington suggests 6.9 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19, more than double the official death toll.
The study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates the total number of U.S. deaths at more than 905,000 — about 60 percent higher than the 561,594 deaths currently reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In India, where the disease has overwhelmed the health care system, the UW group estimates more than 650,000 people have been killed by the virus, nearly three times the official count. In Russia, the true number is likely five times higher than reported.
“This analysis just shows how challenging it has been during the pandemic to accurately track the deaths,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said Thursday in a media briefing. “By focusing on COVID’s total death rate, we bring to light just how much greater the impact of COVID has been already and may be in the future.” . . .
RESULT South Jesmond (Newcastle) Tom Appleby (LD) - 252 Tim Downson (GRN) - 344 Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36 Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062 Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72 Olly Scargill (CON) - 393 LAB HOLD
Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair. ... and now back to 1.03.
Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
The Tories have been massive value since the election was called. At whatever price. Every NE poster has been trying to tell everyone else. Naebody teks us on like.
Kelly CHEQUER (Labour Party) 1,208 Liam Christopher RITCHIE (Conservative Party) 754 Stephen Thomas HARRISON (UKIP) 171 Norman Martin DENT (Liberal Democrat) 138 Morgan Joseph SEED (Green Party) 105
Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair. ... and now back to 1.03.
Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
I have been one of those who said “the Farage vote won’t all go Con when BXP winds up”. I’m starting to think I was wrong.
Take 2019, give 70% BXP to the Tories, and apply new boundaries. Ouch, Labour. Ouch.
RESULT South Jesmond (Newcastle) Tom Appleby (LD) - 252 Tim Downson (GRN) - 344 Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36 Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062 Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72 Olly Scargill (CON) - 393 LAB HOLD
Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair. ... and now back to 1.03.
Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
The Tories have been massive value since the election was called. At whatever price. Every NE poster has been trying to tell everyone else. Naebody teks us on like.
If I told you that Henley, Witney, and Windsor were going Green/Labour by massive margins you'd probably give us the same look we gave you when NE'ers said that Hartlepool is going to go Tory by 15%+.
Hartlepool Conservatives 1.01 vs 22 Labour. Hardly any money left on Betfair. ... and now back to 1.03.
Conservatives clearly massive value at 1.03 given we're seeing BXP/UKIP voting going wholesale to Con *and* we're hearing from the count that Cons well over 50%.
I have been one of those who said “the Farage vote won’t all go Con when BXP winds up”. I’m starting to think I was wrong.
Take 2019, give 70% BXP to the Tories, and apply new boundaries. Ouch, Labour. Ouch.
It’s the Boris factor. He looks like he believes in Brexit, for the very good reason that he delivered it. He’s the father of the child. He’s probably used to the role
For that reason the Leave voters trust him the way they would never trust a Theresa May type
I’ve been struck by the number of photos, in this campaign, of Boris in a pub, with voters looking at him with big smiles. You can’t fake these shots. If you could, we’d see similar images of sir Kir Royale being adored. We don’t.
Boris his still got the ability to charm. It’s quite important
Every NE poster has been saying 50%+ Tories for weeks. Hadddaway and catch on man.
But... it’s Hartlepool
You understand why it feels incredible
This is an historic realignment. I think it’s good for the country. Entrenched political fiefdoms are bad. No democratic politician should feel smugly safe, forever
Labour have to go away and rethink what they want to be. From the ground up. As Jonathan said earlier
As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?
Yes.
Sky still showing Council changes as 0.
I'm guessing they won't update that until there's enough declarations that its mathematically guaranteed to be Con overall control, rather than just as it stands?
As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?
Yes.
Sky still showing Council changes as 0.
I'm guessing they won't update that until there's enough declarations that its mathematically guaranteed to be Con overall control, rather than just as it stands?
Last time in Northumberland, control of the council came down to the drawing of lots between the LDs and Tories. The LDs won, denying the Tories control.
Got to feel for SKS with Arsenal getting knocked out too. Going to be a tough night. Only crumb of comfort for Labour is I would hazard a guess that the Northeast is the region where we’ll see the biggest Lab to Con swings.
Hartlepool is a write off, I was confident from day 1 of a Con win sub 2k margin. I got the first part correct but it increasingly looks like the second part wrong.
Your periodic reminder that the Democrats lost the South yet, somehow, America has a Democratic president today.
Not a "Southern Democrat" though. That's no bad thing, of course, but it's relevant that realignment changes parties in quite fundamental ways too. They don't just move on to new hunting grounds but stay basically the same.
Maybe a Labour of subsidies for higher education, European integration, and international development is a good thing. But it isn't what the Labour Party has historically been about, and that's consequential.
I think it's safe to say the noises coming out of Labour are no longer an example of expectation management. Party insiders are genuinely expecting a proper kicking
As it stands, Northumberland County Council is a Con GAIN surely?
Yes.
Sky still showing Council changes as 0.
I'm guessing they won't update that until there's enough declarations that its mathematically guaranteed to be Con overall control, rather than just as it stands?
Tbf. All the results thus far come from the Blyth Valley constituency. Which was a Tory gain at GE 2019. The vast majority of wards are Labour defences. We have no data from the other 3 constituencies which make up Northumberland. Tory gain. Unless Ponteland, Hexham and Berwick go trot...
Got to feel for SKS with Arsenal getting knocked out too. Going to be a tough night. Only crumb of comfort for Labour is I would hazard a guess that the Northeast is the region where we’ll see the biggest Lab to Con swings.
Hartlepool is a write off, I was confident from day 1 of a Con win sub 2k margin. I got the first part correct but it increasingly looks like the second part wrong.
Your periodic reminder that the Democrats lost the South yet, somehow, America has a Democratic president today.
Not a "Southern Democrat" though. That's no bad thing, of course, but it's relevant that realignment changes parties in quite fundamental ways too. They don't just move on to new hunting grounds but stay basically the same.
Maybe a Labour of subsidies for higher education, European integration, and international development is a good thing. But it isn't what the Labour Party has historically been about, and that's consequential.
Exactly that. Labour needs to change, just as the Democrats did. I fear it will take them a long time to realise that.
Labour doing well in Central Newcastle, very badly in Central Sunderland.
Newcastle generally feels a lot less bad. Big city effect?
Definitely. To me if feels like 20ish years ago Newcastle and Sunderland were pretty equal, whereas now I'd pop Newcastle in the Bristol, Manchester bucket of cool trendy cities for younger people with loads going on, whereas Sunderland has continued to decline.
Comments
Kitty Brewster (Northumberland) council result:
Con: 51.1% (+21.2)
Lab: 43.3% (-1.8)
LDem: 5.6% (-1.7)
No UKIP (-17.7) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab
Con eating the UKIP vote whole and then some.
Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
Which is going to result in a terrrrrrrible night for both Labour and the LDs.
Wowsers, the tectonic plates have really shifted.
Alex Cole-Hamilton 🔶
@agcolehamilton
2h
Key take away from the last hour:
In our best areas turnout is at 2014 independence referendum levels. In the SNP’s best areas turnout is absolutely cratering.
#SP21
Standard pumping tweet I expect. Would be nice if true - I can certainly see why Nat enthusiasm may be low.
Simon John AYRE (Conservative Party) 377
Helmut IZAKS (Green Party) 110
Martin MOORE (UKIP) 75
Dale Michael MORDEY (Labour and Co-operative Party) 849
Ciaran Joseph MORRISSEY (Liberal Democrat) 1029
LD gain.
LD polled 6% in 2019
ISABELLA
Anna Watson (LAB) - 482
Alice May Levy (CON) - 340
LAB HOLD
2017
Gordon Webb Lab 515 63.9%
John Moore UKIP 130 16.1%
Stephen Mallam C 120 14.9%
Sandra Stanger LD 41 5.1%
Croft
Kath Nisbet (LAB) - 556
Martin Tulip (CON) - 293
Mark Peart (REF) - 49
Paul Edward Taylor (IND) - 28
LAB HOLD
2017
Kath Nisbet Lab 514 59.6%
Scott Lee C 164 19.0%
Robert Erskine UKIP 122 14.1%
Peter Stanger LD 63 7.3%
LDem: 42.2% (+34.8)
Lab: 34.8% (-30.2)
Con: 15.5% (-4.8)
Grn: 4.5% (-2.9)
UKIP: 3.1% (+3.1)
Bloody Brexiters...
Newcastle starting to announce results.
South Jesmond (Newcastle)
Tom Appleby (LD) - 252
Tim Downson (GRN) - 344
Martin Evison (Reform UK) - 36
Charlie Gray (LAB) - 1062
Brian Moore (North East Party) - 72
Olly Scargill (CON) - 393
LAB HOLD
But because the Conservatives will have consolidated the UKIP/Conservative vote, they'll be up more, and you'll see the Conservatives make some pretty big gains.
The more interesting question for the LDs will to see if they manage to fight off the Greens in urban and Southern England.
Lab 752
Con 462
Green 243
Ind 242
Ind 114
2019 was Lab 44% Green 30% Con 26%
https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1390431460650323968
https://www.twitch.tv/britainelects
Love it!!!
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/05/lib-dem-fightback-comes-brexitland
... and now back to 1.03.
Lab: 50.8% (-10.0)
Con: 31.7% (+16.7)
UKIP: 7.2% (-10.9)
LDem: 5.8% (+2.4)
Grn: 4.4% (+1.8)
Lab HOLD
Audrey Elizabeth Fay Labour Party 1264 Yes
John Bede Cullen Independent 643
Holly May Wright Conservative Party 290
Kelly Louise Hill Green Party 69
Paul D'Ambrosie Independent 61
Labour lost to an Independent in 2019
A new analysis from scientists at the University of Washington suggests 6.9 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19, more than double the official death toll.
The study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates the total number of U.S. deaths at more than 905,000 — about 60 percent higher than the 561,594 deaths currently reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In India, where the disease has overwhelmed the health care system, the UW group estimates more than 650,000 people have been killed by the virus, nearly three times the official count. In Russia, the true number is likely five times higher than reported.
“This analysis just shows how challenging it has been during the pandemic to accurately track the deaths,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said Thursday in a media briefing. “By focusing on COVID’s total death rate, we bring to light just how much greater the impact of COVID has been already and may be in the future.” . . .
Imagine that in a GE
Lab: 49.2% (+12.2)
Con: 18.2% (+2.6)
Grn: 15.9% (-10.7)
LDem: 11.7% (-7.9)
Reg: 3.3% (+3.3)
Oth: 1.7% (+0.4)
Every NE poster has been trying to tell everyone else.
Naebody teks us on like.
Southwick
Kelly CHEQUER (Labour Party) 1,208
Liam Christopher RITCHIE (Conservative Party) 754
Stephen Thomas HARRISON (UKIP) 171
Norman Martin DENT (Liberal Democrat) 138
Morgan Joseph SEED (Green Party) 105
2019 was Lab 39% UKIP 22% Ind 14 Con 13
Take 2019, give 70% BXP to the Tories, and apply new boundaries. Ouch, Labour. Ouch.
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1390449419594645514?s=21
Big swing. Greens shock. Loads had them doing well. Tiny subsample, early days...
Lab: 33.9% (-14.0)
Con: 30.1% (+13.9)
Ind: 25.8% (+13.6)
Grn: 10.2% (+10.2)
No UKIP (-22.7) as prev.
Lab HOLD
oof close. Bet the Ind was a Kipper type
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
The numbers are off the charts” in South Blyth apparently - looking good for another gain in Northumberland
Cramlington North (Northumberland) council result:
Con: 76.8% (-14.6)
Lab: 23.2% (+15.9)
Con HOLD
Con: 54.5% (+12.8)
Lab: 45.5% (-3.1)
No UKIP (-8.1) as prev.
Con GAIN from Lab
For that reason the Leave voters trust him the way they would never trust a Theresa May type
I’ve been struck by the number of photos, in this campaign, of Boris in a pub, with voters looking at him with big smiles. You can’t fake these shots. If you could, we’d see similar images of sir Kir Royale being adored. We don’t.
Boris his still got the ability to charm. It’s quite important
Con gain from NoC more than nailed on.
First time Con has had a majority on Northumberland.
LDem: 37.6% (-7.4)
Con: 32.2% (+19.4)
Lab: 26.0% (-2.3)
Oth: 4.3% (+2.5)
LDem HOLD
Hadddaway and catch on man.
Ind was a former coucillor for that ward for the Progressives. Must have lost in 2010
You understand why it feels incredible
This is an historic realignment. I think it’s good for the country. Entrenched political fiefdoms are bad. No democratic politician should feel smugly safe, forever
Labour have to go away and rethink what they want to be. From the ground up. As Jonathan said earlier
I'm guessing they won't update that until there's enough declarations that its mathematically guaranteed to be Con overall control, rather than just as it stands?
Lab: 42.6% (-8.3)
Con: 40.8% (+24.2)
Grn: 6.8% (+1.6)
LDem: 5.2% (+2.2)
UKIP: 4.7% (-18.8)
Lab HOLD
Richard DUNN (Conservative Party) 1,610
Rebecca Sarah ATKINSON (Labour Party) 1,367
Tim ELLIS (Liberal Democrat) 201
Alyson KORDBARLAG (Green Party) 158
Con gain.
Won also in 2019 (36 to 30%)
https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/860418039073918977
Hartlepool is a write off, I was confident from day 1 of a Con win sub 2k margin. I got the first part correct but it increasingly looks like the second part wrong.
Lab +5.1
Con +21.3
Jane Carter (LAB) - 1,300
Daniel Fisher (Reform) - 63
Ian Forster (CON) - 1,673
David Herbert (GRN) - 450
CON GAIN
Lab: 44.1% (+7.0)
LDem: 41.6% (-7.5)
Grn: 10.0% (+0.6)
Con: 4.3% (+1.1)
Lab GAIN from LDem
Maybe a Labour of subsidies for higher education, European integration, and international development is a good thing. But it isn't what the Labour Party has historically been about, and that's consequential.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1390424257906282501
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390453425704419330
LAB: 3 (-4)
LDM: 2 (+2)
CON: 2 (+2)
Tory gain.
Unless Ponteland, Hexham and Berwick go trot...
Usman Ali (CON) - 1,411
Ellen Ball (LAB and CO-OP) - 1,230
Marek Filipkowski (UKIP) - 233
CON GAIN
Tory sources now predicting a majority in Hartlepool "of several thousand".
Lab: 49.5% (-15.5)
Ind: 22.4% (+22.4)
Con: 20.8% (+0.1)
Grn: 7.2% (-6.0)
Lab HOLD