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The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    ping said:
    How very modern. An article about the Red Wall behind a Pay Wall.
    https://www.ft.com/content/e8fb3676-b4df-499c-a289-168dc580891c

    If you wanna knock a brick through the red wall pay wall, copy/paste ^ into google, then click through.

    Alternatively, if you want to help pay Seb’s rent, get an ft sub.

    Personally, I’m a tight bastard.
    Personally, I'm a lazy bastard. And tight!

    If citing a story behind a paywall, I like to include a brief summary of the gist so that others can decide IF they think they need to actually seek it from the horse's mouth (or other end as case may be).
    Summary: Tory Mayor popular, signs are that Tories ahead in Hartlepool and more widely the red wall - though only anedotal, plus a gloomy assessment from a Shadow cabinet minister.
    No mention of a Northern Independence Party surge? And to think, Ladbrokes opened the betting on them at 4/5 to lose their deposit!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    ping said:
    How very modern. An article about the Red Wall behind a Pay Wall.
    https://www.ft.com/content/e8fb3676-b4df-499c-a289-168dc580891c

    If you wanna knock a brick through the red wall pay wall, copy/paste ^ into google, then click through.

    Alternatively, if you want to help pay Seb’s rent, get an ft sub.

    Personally, I’m a tight bastard.
    Personally, I'm a lazy bastard. And tight!

    If citing a story behind a paywall, I like to include a brief summary of the gist so that others can decide IF they think they need to actually seek it from the horse's mouth (or other end as case may be).
    You can usually read FT articles by putting them through Google.
  • pingping Posts: 1,645
    edited May 2021
    I’m laying the tories for small stakes in Hartlepool. May increase my stakes over the next few days.

    Are we expecting another constituency poll?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,609
    Why hello there, Redfield & Wilton:
    C40 L 38
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1389248422100733959?s=19
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,174
    Westminster Voting Intention (3 May):

    Conservative 40% (-4)
    Labour 38% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 April

    Follow @redfieldwilton to see our weekly VI first.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-may-2021/ https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1389248422100733959/photo/1
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,821
    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    3m
    Conservative lead falls from 10pts to just 2pts with @RedfieldWilton
    ahead of this Thursday's elections:
    Quote Tweet
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    · 3m
    Westminster Voting Intention (3 May):

    Conservative 40% (-4)
    Labour 38% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 April

    Follow @redfieldwilton to see our weekly VI first.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti

    Surely both Hartlepool and WM must be very iffy now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,496
    Little doubt Boris wallpaper has cut through

    Now for Thursday
  • YouGov is the outlier now.

    Great job Labour.
  • Hartlepool surely depends on postal votes and when they went in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,802
    ping said:
    Teesside
    Teesside
    Teesside

    Middlesbrough is not Middlesborough
    Teesside is not Teeside

    And I think the Tories will win the seat.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,821

    Hartlepool surely depends on postal votes and when they went in.

    That would probably apply to all the elections on Thursday.
  • pingping Posts: 1,645
    NE sub sample

    31% con
    31% lab
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,227
    Covid numbers are very late today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,569
    "An SNP majority is a guarantee of another independence referendum." https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1389220146632437763
    Scots Tories did not get the memo from HYUFD.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    I still think Con will win Hartlepool.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,821
    ping said:

    NE sub sample

    31% con
    31% lab

    Not very reliable although astonishing given how things were in the NE. Maybe we will see some differential swing. Either way it is annoying that Boris has made such an error over such an issue. I never thought he'd last to the next election.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,755
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
    Historically illiterate shite. You're a fucking accountant. That's all. And sometimes, it really shows
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,821
    edited May 2021

    Covid numbers are very late today.

    I saw just the one death on Sky News. EDIT: I don't mean that literally!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426
    Ooo. A little mini kaboom.

    Is the country waking up?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,755

    "An SNP majority is a guarantee of another independence referendum." https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1389220146632437763
    Scots Tories did not get the memo from HYUFD.

    But the Scots Tories are right. Sturgeon has now said she will call a referendum no matter what the UKG decides in the Commons. A wildcat vote, an illegal vote, an advisory vote, that is what she will do - in her own words
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,330
    kinabalu said:

    Ooo. A little mini kaboom.

    Is the country waking up?
    Do you still think CON will win Hartlepool?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    felix said:

    Covid numbers are very late today.

    I saw just the one death on Sky News. EDIT: I don't mean that literally!
    That's one way to boost the ratings.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    ping said:

    NE sub sample

    31% con
    31% lab

    Who are the rest?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    edited May 2021
    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    NE sub sample

    31% con
    31% lab

    Who are the rest?
    Nippers? :D
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,474
    That's

    C 40 (-4) L 38 (+4)

    Beginning of end for Johnson
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,755
    IshmaelZ said:

    That's

    C 40 (-4) L 38 (+4)

    Beginning of end for Johnson
    Absurdly premature!

    But not good for the Tories

    If this is all dependent on Boris they can still eject him and get Rishi or Liz, maybe.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426
    ping said:

    I’m laying the tories for small stakes in Hartlepool. May increase my stakes over the next few days.

    Are we expecting another constituency poll?

    I'm not changing my call - Cons for Hartlepool - but I've closed my exchange bet and taken the available profit.

    I've gone from "virtually certain" the Cons will win it to a "fairly sure".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,474
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    That's

    C 40 (-4) L 38 (+4)

    Beginning of end for Johnson
    Absurdly premature!

    But not good for the Tories

    If this is all dependent on Boris they can still eject him and get Rishi or Liz, maybe.....
    No, I think it is (but not on the basis of this poll, that's just confirmation). Wheels def coming off now.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (3 May):

    Conservative 40% (-4)
    Labour 38% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 April

    Follow @redfieldwilton to see our weekly VI first.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-may-2021/ https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1389248422100733959/photo/1

    Sir Keir Strarmer's John Lewis wallpaper stunt has done the trick.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (3 May):

    Conservative 40% (-4)
    Labour 38% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 April

    Follow @redfieldwilton to see our weekly VI first.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-may-2021/ https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1389248422100733959/photo/1

    Sir Keir Strarmer's John Lewis wallpaper stunt has done the trick.
    The weird reaction to that here was something to behold, BoJo spent the entirety of GE19 doing the same thing
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,474
    The UK has recorded one Covid death within 28 days of a positive test across all settings in the latest 24-hour period, official figures show.

    This is the first time since August 30 - also a Bank Holiday weekend - that just one death has been reported.

    It comes as a further 1,649 people tested positive for the virus.

    34,588,600 Britons have had at least one dose of the vaccine, with 15,500,949 now fully vaccinated.

    Telegraph
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,015
    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.
  • pingping Posts: 1,645
    “An update from Hartlepool”

    Is that a full poll?

    I’m cancelling my unmatched bets!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    NE sub sample

    31% con
    31% lab

    Who are the rest?
    9 (!) % Green
    3 % Ref
    0 (!) % LD.
    Rest DK/ won't say.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,474

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (3 May):

    Conservative 40% (-4)
    Labour 38% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 April

    Follow @redfieldwilton to see our weekly VI first.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-may-2021/ https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1389248422100733959/photo/1

    Sir Keir Strarmer's John Lewis wallpaper stunt has done the trick.
    The weird reaction to that here was something to behold, BoJo spent the entirety of GE19 doing the same thing
    Yes, but he is good at it is the point.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    IshmaelZ said:

    That's

    C 40 (-4) L 38 (+4)

    Beginning of end for Johnson
    That depends on whether Boris both wants and is capable of sorting out his life.

    Starting with no more self-pitying whining about money.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    PB Tories wrong again?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    I think what we are seeing is a reversion to politics as normal.
    The pandemic, at least in the UK, is no longer all pervasive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
    Historically illiterate shite. You're a fucking accountant. That's all. And sometimes, it really shows
    The word you're looking for is "insightful". And I don't charge a penny.

    But you carry on churning out the hackneyed, parochial, reactionary groupthink, using those above average prose skills of yours.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,755
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
    Historically illiterate shite. You're a fucking accountant. That's all. And sometimes, it really shows
    The word you're looking for is "insightful". And I don't charge a penny.

    But you carry on churning out the hackneyed, parochial, reactionary groupthink using those above average prose skills of yours.
    Sorry, I forgot. A fucking RETIRED accountant. Is all that you are. Forgot that.

    You're welcome
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,195
    Politico.com - Dems get locked out of Texas special election
    Republicans placed first and second in the Texas 6th District primary, which means Democrats will miss the runoff.

    Interesting report on yesterday's special election for US House in Texas 6th congressional district.

    Personally am feeling pretty pissed off at my fellow Democrats.

    Not surprising that Republicans had 11 candidates in this race is not a surprise, given that it's been in GOP hands since Phil Gramm (remember him?) switched parties in the 1980s and also that they've got more than their fair share of nuts & grifters (these days).

    But fact that 10 Democrats ran, including four who each got 10% or more of the combined Democratic vote, suggests what you might call a "problematic" situation on our side.

    Note that
    > votes cast for yesterday's special election = 76% of March 2020 primary and 23% of November 2020 general election; turnout is almost always much lower for special than regular elections, but so low suggests lack of serious GOTV by Democrats.
    > share of total vote cast for Democrats = 37% compared with 46% in 2020 primary and 44% in 2020 general election; result of low turnout esp. by Democrats
    > Jana Lynne Sanchez, establishment Democratic favorite, got 36% of the total Democratic vote cast.
    > Shawn Lassiter, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, took 24% of the total Dem vote, in a district about where a Democratic Socialist is less likely to win election than say Alba in Chesham & Amersham; but if a Bernie Bro (or Gal) was inevitably gonna make the race, what about . . .
    > Fact that Dem endorsed by Tarrant Co Labor Council & other unions took 10% of the Democratic vote, and two (as far as I can tell) nothing Black candidates together another 20% of the Dems? To me this seems proof positive of lack of Democratic focus, organization AND leadership.

    To me, looks like another circular Democratic firing squad.

    As a son of this part of the country (just across the Red River in Oklahoma) said years ago,

    "I do not belong to any organized political party - I am a Democrat."
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,236
    Cyclefree said:

    Re what we were discussing the other day about Grenfell and the construction industry - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/toxic-and-dysfunctional-industry-in-race-to-the-bottom-kmd8n7ct9

    A summary: "“The largest of the many problems in the industry is the broken business model that promotes a race to the bottom in standards. Taken together that is a toxic equation.”

    From an initial reading it sounds very similar to what happened in finance - the obsession with making money to the exclusion of all else has resulted in appalling risk management and a poor culture and nothing will change until the industry realises it has to change. Forcing it to pay up for Grenfell might have kickstarted that change. Instead it has been let off the hook.

    Police
    The construction industry
    Finance
    The Post Office
    The NHS
    The press
    Charities
    Churches

    All of these and others have suffered repeated scandals over the years, in some cases, over decades. All of them have to a greater or lesser extent been in denial of the extent of the problems and what is really needed to effect real change for the better.

    We are far too complacent, far too ready to accept the second and third rate, far too willing to pat ourselves on the back for past glories, far too willing to entrust our governance to fundamentally frivolous and unserious individuals, far too willing to sneer at the incompetences and failings of others instead of addressing the beams in our own eyes. Until we do, nothing much will change for the better.

    The problem I saw regarding the cladding at Grenfell is that the official information looked fine. For me the comparison is VW emissions. The systems for design of buildings is now so complicated that detailed analysis need to be done by engineers. If the information they are using is wrong - design error, product fraud, incompatible designs - then the end result will not be correct. Even those employed to supervise these sort of standards for investors, and I used to work for such a consultant years ago, are reliant on the professional competence of others.

    The best people to speak to are the site foremen. I remember my first time on a building site on work experience and the site foreman got into a row with the surveyor I was with because the drawings whilst attractive, were impossible to build!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,496

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    The recent polls showing a considerable narrowing of the lead all seem to confirm Boris leading substantially on the economy and other indicators and clearly shown in this poll tonight

    They do seem to be contradictory but they do make this week's elections very interesting
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,195
    edited May 2021

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    NE sub sample

    31% con
    31% lab

    Who are the rest?
    Nippers? :D
    Cornish Nationalists!

    Edit - Cicero warned the Roman Republic against Carthage. Pitt the Elder warned Britain against France and Pitt the Younger against the French Revolution. Winston Churchill warned the world against Bolshevism and Nazism.

    It is my historic role, to warn PBers against the dangers of extreme Cornish Nationalism.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,474

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    The recent polls showing a considerable narrowing of the lead all seem to confirm Boris leading substantially on the economy and other indicators and clearly shown in this poll tonight

    They do seem to be contradictory but they do make this week's elections very interesting
    From this poll

    The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -6% in this week’s poll, 4% lower than last week and 8% lower than two weeks ago. Altogether, 35% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), 29% find the Government competent (down 3%), and 28% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (up 2%).

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has remained positive for the thirteenth week in a row and currently stands at +6%. However, this rating is a three-point decrease from last week and a nine-point decrease in the past two weeks. This week’s poll finds 42% approving of his overall job performance (down 2%), against 36% disapproving (up 1%).

    Not great for the blues

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    IshmaelZ said:

    The UK has recorded one Covid death within 28 days of a positive test across all settings in the latest 24-hour period, official figures show.

    This is the first time since August 30 - also a Bank Holiday weekend - that just one death has been reported.

    It comes as a further 1,649 people tested positive for the virus.

    34,588,600 Britons have had at least one dose of the vaccine, with 15,500,949 now fully vaccinated.

    Telegraph

    Still not on the daily summary yet.

    But a fall in both cases and deaths though there might be a bank holiday factor involved.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,609
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    That's

    C 40 (-4) L 38 (+4)

    Beginning of end for Johnson
    Absurdly premature!

    But not good for the Tories

    If this is all dependent on Boris they can still eject him and get Rishi or Liz, maybe.....
    The trouble is that Boris is the kind of guy who would celebrate a successful lung transplant with a huge cigar.

    And that cheerful insouciance is why we love him, but it's also what will destroy him.

    AN Othertory means you lose the positives as well as the negatives.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,755
    There's an actual gale blowing in London now.

    Heating on, and up
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426

    kinabalu said:

    Ooo. A little mini kaboom.

    Is the country waking up?
    Do you still think CON will win Hartlepool?
    I'm not quite as certain as I was - hence I've cashed my bet out - but yes I do. Cons win Hartlepool.

    That can quite happily co-incide with something else being true - this being the beginning of the slide for the Cons and the recovery of Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,236
    IshmaelZ said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    The recent polls showing a considerable narrowing of the lead all seem to confirm Boris leading substantially on the economy and other indicators and clearly shown in this poll tonight

    They do seem to be contradictory but they do make this week's elections very interesting
    From this poll

    The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -6% in this week’s poll, 4% lower than last week and 8% lower than two weeks ago. Altogether, 35% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), 29% find the Government competent (down 3%), and 28% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (up 2%).

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has remained positive for the thirteenth week in a row and currently stands at +6%. However, this rating is a three-point decrease from last week and a nine-point decrease in the past two weeks. This week’s poll finds 42% approving of his overall job performance (down 2%), against 36% disapproving (up 1%).

    Not great for the blues

    Most PM’s and governments would be quite content with those numbers in mid-term.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,425

    I still think Con will win Hartlepool.

    So do I (sadly).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
    Historically illiterate shite. You're a fucking accountant. That's all. And sometimes, it really shows
    Oh and it's a "chartered" accountant, thank you very much. ACA.

    Or it would be if I still paid the subs.
  • pingping Posts: 1,645
    edited May 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    Re what we were discussing the other day about Grenfell and the construction industry - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/toxic-and-dysfunctional-industry-in-race-to-the-bottom-kmd8n7ct9

    A summary: "“The largest of the many problems in the industry is the broken business model that promotes a race to the bottom in standards. Taken together that is a toxic equation.”

    From an initial reading it sounds very similar to what happened in finance - the obsession with making money to the exclusion of all else has resulted in appalling risk management and a poor culture and nothing will change until the industry realises it has to change. Forcing it to pay up for Grenfell might have kickstarted that change. Instead it has been let off the hook.

    Police
    The construction industry
    Finance
    The Post Office
    The NHS
    The press
    Charities
    Churches

    All of these and others have suffered repeated scandals over the years, in some cases, over decades. All of them have to a greater or lesser extent been in denial of the extent of the problems and what is really needed to effect real change for the better.

    We are far too complacent, far too ready to accept the second and third rate, far too willing to pat ourselves on the back for past glories, far too willing to entrust our governance to fundamentally frivolous and unserious individuals, far too willing to sneer at the incompetences and failings of others instead of addressing the beams in our own eyes. Until we do, nothing much will change for the better.

    My hope is - after Grenfell - we get proper regulations, properly enforced.

    Our nations housing stock should be of high and increasing quality. The race to the bottom is a scandal.

    Sadly, there are few votes in it and the ‘bonfire of the regulations’ brigade still seem to hold sway.

    I don’t see that changing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,496
    IshmaelZ said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    The recent polls showing a considerable narrowing of the lead all seem to confirm Boris leading substantially on the economy and other indicators and clearly shown in this poll tonight

    They do seem to be contradictory but they do make this week's elections very interesting
    From this poll

    The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -6% in this week’s poll, 4% lower than last week and 8% lower than two weeks ago. Altogether, 35% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), 29% find the Government competent (down 3%), and 28% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (up 2%).

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has remained positive for the thirteenth week in a row and currently stands at +6%. However, this rating is a three-point decrease from last week and a nine-point decrease in the past two weeks. This week’s poll finds 42% approving of his overall job performance (down 2%), against 36% disapproving (up 1%).

    Not great for the blues

    Indeed but this also Boris v Starmer

    Best PM 45/30

    Build a strong economy 45/29

    Put UK interests first 45/31

    Tackle covid 46/25

    Best PM v Rishi Sunak 41/31

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,285

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    Yes, what seems to have registered for my friends is the "why does she need a nanny?" stuff more than the wallpaper but it does all seem to be adding up. Boris has that "man of the people" mystique as part of his wider appeal and this is undoing that quite quickly. He needs to put Carrie in her place a bit or make her go out and get a job if she wants a nanny and £100k wallpaper.
  • pingping Posts: 1,645

    IshmaelZ said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    The recent polls showing a considerable narrowing of the lead all seem to confirm Boris leading substantially on the economy and other indicators and clearly shown in this poll tonight

    They do seem to be contradictory but they do make this week's elections very interesting
    From this poll

    The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -6% in this week’s poll, 4% lower than last week and 8% lower than two weeks ago. Altogether, 35% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), 29% find the Government competent (down 3%), and 28% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (up 2%).

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has remained positive for the thirteenth week in a row and currently stands at +6%. However, this rating is a three-point decrease from last week and a nine-point decrease in the past two weeks. This week’s poll finds 42% approving of his overall job performance (down 2%), against 36% disapproving (up 1%).

    Not great for the blues

    Indeed but this also Boris v Starmer

    Best PM 45/30

    Build a strong economy 45/29

    Put UK interests first 45/31

    Tackle covid 46/25

    Best PM v Rishi Sunak 41/31

    Yes. It’s rather confusing.

    People increasingly want to vote Labour, but are less and less impressed by Starmer?

    Doesn’t make sense to me.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    Is there evidence that he's learnt from any of his previous lessons?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045

    IshmaelZ said:

    The UK has recorded one Covid death within 28 days of a positive test across all settings in the latest 24-hour period, official figures show.

    This is the first time since August 30 - also a Bank Holiday weekend - that just one death has been reported.

    It comes as a further 1,649 people tested positive for the virus.

    34,588,600 Britons have had at least one dose of the vaccine, with 15,500,949 now fully vaccinated.

    Telegraph

    Still not on the daily summary yet.

    But a fall in both cases and deaths though there might be a bank holiday factor involved.
    Yes, and we're still going to get stuck with facemasks indefinitely.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,045

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    I couldn't really care less about his wife or his wallpaper. I'm more concerned that he is reverse ferreting on the end of restrictions on June 21st.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    ping said:

    I’m laying the tories for small stakes in Hartlepool. May increase my stakes over the next few days.

    Are we expecting another constituency poll?

    I'm not changing my call - Cons for Hartlepool - but I've closed my exchange bet and taken the available profit.

    I've gone from "virtually certain" the Cons will win it to a "fairly sure".
    And of course if I win our bet you'll be claiming that as a stunning victory for Labour rather than admitting you were wrong, I was right, and that it wasn't a likely gain while in office.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190
    ping said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re what we were discussing the other day about Grenfell and the construction industry - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/toxic-and-dysfunctional-industry-in-race-to-the-bottom-kmd8n7ct9

    A summary: "“The largest of the many problems in the industry is the broken business model that promotes a race to the bottom in standards. Taken together that is a toxic equation.”

    From an initial reading it sounds very similar to what happened in finance - the obsession with making money to the exclusion of all else has resulted in appalling risk management and a poor culture and nothing will change until the industry realises it has to change. Forcing it to pay up for Grenfell might have kickstarted that change. Instead it has been let off the hook.

    Police
    The construction industry
    Finance
    The Post Office
    The NHS
    The press
    Charities
    Churches

    All of these and others have suffered repeated scandals over the years, in some cases, over decades. All of them have to a greater or lesser extent been in denial of the extent of the problems and what is really needed to effect real change for the better.

    We are far too complacent, far too ready to accept the second and third rate, far too willing to pat ourselves on the back for past glories, far too willing to entrust our governance to fundamentally frivolous and unserious individuals, far too willing to sneer at the incompetences and failings of others instead of addressing the beams in our own eyes. Until we do, nothing much will change for the better.

    My hope is - after Grenfell - we get proper regulations, properly enforced.

    Our nations housing stock should be of high and increasing quality. The race to the bottom is a scandal.

    Sadly, there are few votes in it and the ‘bonfire of the regulations’ brigade still seem to hold sway.

    I don’t see that changing.
    Meanwhile one of the sectors where Britain really does have a lot of talent and "soft power" and services which people all round the world want and value is getting shafted by the government - https://twitter.com/wearethemu/status/1388124434071003138?s=21

    Summary: the government is proposing a 50% cut in funding for the arts, including music, in Higher Education.

    So we won't need to wear masks in theatres because at this rate there won't be any left and not much to see in them anyway.
  • There is zero evidence BoJo has learned anything from his previous incidents.

    You see the same polling drop as happened after Cummings, he has learned nothing.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,609
    Cyclefree said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    Is there evidence that he's learnt from any of his previous lessons?
    Yes, he's learned from his previous lessons.

    Unfortunately, what he learned was that he's indestructible.

    The trouble with teaching... What they learn isn't always what you might expect, or wish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    It is not a move to Labour, it is a move from Tory to Can't Be Arsed Party that is in the polling.

    And even that, not very much.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190
    Cookie said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The UK has recorded one Covid death within 28 days of a positive test across all settings in the latest 24-hour period, official figures show.

    This is the first time since August 30 - also a Bank Holiday weekend - that just one death has been reported.

    It comes as a further 1,649 people tested positive for the virus.

    34,588,600 Britons have had at least one dose of the vaccine, with 15,500,949 now fully vaccinated.

    Telegraph

    Still not on the daily summary yet.

    But a fall in both cases and deaths though there might be a bank holiday factor involved.
    Yes, and we're still going to get stuck with facemasks indefinitely.
    I am not going to wear one. I am exempt because of my asthma but while the pandemic was raging I wore one if out, anyway. But now that the pandemic is all but over in this country I am damned if I'm going to wear one just because some scientist wants to stop me or someone else catching flu. Or just because they love the idea of micro-managing everyone's lives. Enough.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,496
    Breaking

    Premier League to setup new charter that all owners have to sign with serious sanctions for breaches
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
    Historically illiterate shite. You're a fucking accountant. That's all. And sometimes, it really shows
    The word you're looking for is "insightful". And I don't charge a penny.

    But you carry on churning out the hackneyed, parochial, reactionary groupthink using those above average prose skills of yours.
    Sorry, I forgot. A fucking RETIRED accountant. Is all that you are. Forgot that.

    You're welcome
    I'm a fucking retired CHARTERED accountant. Please.

    And a fucking retired bond trader. And a fucking retired bullshitting management consultant. And a fucking retired warehouse worker in fact. Etc.

    Bottom line - I'm fucking retired.

    I do this now. Seek to win hearts & minds on here. :smile:
    I think you need 50k posts to be considered a Chartered PBer...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,755
    Cookie said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The UK has recorded one Covid death within 28 days of a positive test across all settings in the latest 24-hour period, official figures show.

    This is the first time since August 30 - also a Bank Holiday weekend - that just one death has been reported.

    It comes as a further 1,649 people tested positive for the virus.

    34,588,600 Britons have had at least one dose of the vaccine, with 15,500,949 now fully vaccinated.

    Telegraph

    Still not on the daily summary yet.

    But a fall in both cases and deaths though there might be a bank holiday factor involved.
    Yes, and we're still going to get stuck with facemasks indefinitely.
    I don't think we are, simply because people will rebel.

    When we're down to a few hundred cases a day, a handful of deaths, the NHS is untroubled (by Covid) on one will wear masks, except the really worried well

    I'll never wear one unless it is legally and practically enforced. ie I am told on pain of a fine, there and then, put it on. There will be millions like me. Fuck the masks
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    MaxPB said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    Yes, what seems to have registered for my friends is the "why does she need a nanny?" stuff more than the wallpaper but it does all seem to be adding up. Boris has that "man of the people" mystique as part of his wider appeal and this is undoing that quite quickly. He needs to put Carrie in her place a bit or make her go out and get a job if she wants a nanny and £100k wallpaper.
    Carrie using the 'I have exquisite taste' defence was pretty nauseating.

    Boris not being able to control self-entitled extravagance at home doesn't give suggest that he's able to control things in the country.

    It makes him look weak and that's something no prime minister can survive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541

    Breaking

    Premier League to setup new charter that all owners have to sign with serious sanctions for breaches

    Do they have to agree not to chop up journalists? No reason for asking.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,496
    edited May 2021

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
    Historically illiterate shite. You're a fucking accountant. That's all. And sometimes, it really shows
    The word you're looking for is "insightful". And I don't charge a penny.

    But you carry on churning out the hackneyed, parochial, reactionary groupthink using those above average prose skills of yours.
    Sorry, I forgot. A fucking RETIRED accountant. Is all that you are. Forgot that.

    You're welcome
    I'm a fucking retired CHARTERED accountant. Please.

    And a fucking retired bond trader. And a fucking retired bullshitting management consultant. And a fucking retired warehouse worker in fact. Etc.

    Bottom line - I'm fucking retired.

    I do this now. Seek to win hearts & minds on here. :smile:
    I think you need 50k posts to be considered a Chartered PBer...
    9,437 to go then !!!!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,609

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    It is not a move to Labour, it is a move from Tory to Can't Be Arsed Party that is in the polling.

    And even that, not very much.
    Not just Con to CBA, though that's definitely a factor. The other thing is that lefties disappointed in Starmer will have seen him kipper the PM reasonably effectively for the first time in a while. So a different pool of CBA will have shifted to Lab.

    And in lots of elections, that's enough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    Even soft Tories might think about giving the government a kicking this Thursday. The country needs a check on three more years of Tory hubris.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    Cookie said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    I couldn't really care less about his wife or his wallpaper. I'm more concerned that he is reverse ferreting on the end of restrictions on June 21st.
    I think if he'd brought forward the May 17th restriction ending by one week it would have given some space for keeping other restrictions in July.

    But it seems that restrictions can only be changed in one direction.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 195
    Only one COVID death announced... worried it might be the person who updates the COVID data dashboard... still not showing today’s data...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,600

    I still think Con will win Hartlepool.

    So do I (sadly).
    I think they have the potential to win - but it's turnout differentials which I can't get a handle on. Low turnout could strongly favour Labour.

    Tricky market which I'm largely avoiding, though I have small stakes on Labour just due to the odds on offer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426

    kinabalu said:

    ping said:

    I’m laying the tories for small stakes in Hartlepool. May increase my stakes over the next few days.

    Are we expecting another constituency poll?

    I'm not changing my call - Cons for Hartlepool - but I've closed my exchange bet and taken the available profit.

    I've gone from "virtually certain" the Cons will win it to a "fairly sure".
    And of course if I win our bet you'll be claiming that as a stunning victory for Labour rather than admitting you were wrong, I was right, and that it wasn't a likely gain while in office.
    There's no need to be spoiling for a fight in advance. If Labour win, my call will have been a bad one and yours a good one. We bet at even money so it's "pure". How we interpret the result (for long range GE betting purposes) will be down to each of us individually. But one thing you won't be hearing from me is "stunning victory" unless the margin is something special.

    In any case, n/a - the blues are winning it for the reasons I've explained till my own face is of similar hue.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,015

    MaxPB said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    Yes, what seems to have registered for my friends is the "why does she need a nanny?" stuff more than the wallpaper but it does all seem to be adding up. Boris has that "man of the people" mystique as part of his wider appeal and this is undoing that quite quickly. He needs to put Carrie in her place a bit or make her go out and get a job if she wants a nanny and £100k wallpaper.
    Carrie using the 'I have exquisite taste' defence was pretty nauseating.

    Boris not being able to control self-entitled extravagance at home doesn't give suggest that he's able to control things in the country.

    It makes him look weak and that's something no prime minister can survive.

    The extravagance is not the issue. If you can afford it, buy whatever you like. It's Johnson thinking he does not have to pay for it that will grate. Other people have to buy their wallpaper and child care. Why not him?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426
    Cookie said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The UK has recorded one Covid death within 28 days of a positive test across all settings in the latest 24-hour period, official figures show.

    This is the first time since August 30 - also a Bank Holiday weekend - that just one death has been reported.

    It comes as a further 1,649 people tested positive for the virus.

    34,588,600 Britons have had at least one dose of the vaccine, with 15,500,949 now fully vaccinated.

    Telegraph

    Still not on the daily summary yet.

    But a fall in both cases and deaths though there might be a bank holiday factor involved.
    Yes, and we're still going to get stuck with facemasks indefinitely.
    No! Compulsory masks are ending. You guys just will not believe me till it happens, will you?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,053

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Except Opinium is the gold standard for approval polling and the most recent
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 928

    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    NE sub sample

    31% con
    31% lab

    Who are the rest?
    Nippers? :D
    Cornish Nationalists!

    Edit - Cicero warned the Roman Republic against Carthage. Pitt the Elder warned Britain against France and Pitt the Younger against the French Revolution. Winston Churchill warned the world against Bolshevism and Nazism.

    It is my historic role, to warn PBers against the dangers of extreme Cornish Nationalism.
    I would have warned against Carthage, but Carthage was already destroyed in 146BC (according to your barbarous calender) which was 40 years before I was born.

    It was M.P. Cato the Elder, great grandfather of my friend M.P. Cato "the Younger", who was quite keen on the demolition of the Punic Capital... "Carthago delenda est" and all that.

    I wouldn´t wish to claim credit where none was due.
  • It's the quality of posts that counts, not the quantity. I am completely certifiable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,833

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (3 May):

    Conservative 40% (-4)
    Labour 38% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)
    SNP 4% (-1)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 26 April

    Follow @redfieldwilton to see our weekly VI first.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-3-may-2021/ https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1389248422100733959/photo/1

    Sir Keir Strarmer's John Lewis wallpaper stunt has done the trick.
    I told you we needed to wait for that to feed through.

    Now we have the boxing ring photos for the next poll.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,426

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
    :smile: - It's a good match.

    Popping back quickly with this thought -

    This "Enlightenment" that the softhead antiwokerati keep referring to with great reverence - and which the modern metro left are supposedly bringing to an end - strikes me as self-congratulatory bollox. Unless "enlightenment" involves black people being routinely treated like cattle.

    The true Enlightenment was 1945/51 - the creation of the welfare state under the Attlee government.
    Historically illiterate shite. You're a fucking accountant. That's all. And sometimes, it really shows
    The word you're looking for is "insightful". And I don't charge a penny.

    But you carry on churning out the hackneyed, parochial, reactionary groupthink using those above average prose skills of yours.
    Sorry, I forgot. A fucking RETIRED accountant. Is all that you are. Forgot that.

    You're welcome
    I'm a fucking retired CHARTERED accountant. Please.

    And a fucking retired bond trader. And a fucking retired bullshitting management consultant. And a fucking retired warehouse worker in fact. Etc.

    Bottom line - I'm fucking retired.

    I do this now. Seek to win hearts & minds on here. :smile:
    I think you need 50k posts to be considered a Chartered PBer...
    Ha. Like that. But I think 20k gets Chartered status. 50k is Fellow.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190

    Cookie said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    I couldn't really care less about his wife or his wallpaper. I'm more concerned that he is reverse ferreting on the end of restrictions on June 21st.
    I think if he'd brought forward the May 17th restriction ending by one week it would have given some space for keeping other restrictions in July.

    But it seems that restrictions can only be changed in one direction.
    If journalists were doing their job properly, they would be asking Ministers this: if any restrictions continue beyond June, will the support for business affected by those restrictions continue getting support? And if there is no support then surely there should be no restrictions. You cannot have one without the other.

    Masks in pubs and restaurants is not normal. They have to go and if they don't such businesses cannot stand on their own two feet.

    So which is it: normality and no support or continuing restrictions and continuing support?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    Today’s total Corona deaths of...one, is pretty amazing comparatively speaking.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,079
    Masks, wallpaper, restrictions, nannies. You can see from the tiny subsample on here that it is a number of things annoying a relatively small number of folk each that is adding up.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,578
    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    Absolutely. It may seem strange to modern and younger ears but marriage is for life and only between one man and one woman is the basic doctrine of Anglicans, Roman Catholics, the Orthodox churches, Methodists, Baptists and lots of others. Most of these people are tolerant, ordinary members of the public. Many of them are MPs.



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190

    MaxPB said:

    I am not convinced by the poll shifts we are seeing. If you look at the below the line numbers, Johnson's own favourability levels have hardly dropped at all (except with Opinium). That says to me that we are not hearing anything other than a bit of mood music. All the political fundamentals heavily favour the Tories: the vaccine roll-out trucking, lockdown easing, house prices rising, economic confidence soaring, the triple lock as firm as ever. Nothing has really changed. We could well be back to double digit Tory leads pretty quickly.

    Possibly.

    But its a warning to Boris.

    His slack personal management causes him problems and the Carrie Antoinette stuff does rile voters.

    If he's sensible (yes, I know) and learns from events then he's been given another piece of luck.
    Yes, what seems to have registered for my friends is the "why does she need a nanny?" stuff more than the wallpaper but it does all seem to be adding up. Boris has that "man of the people" mystique as part of his wider appeal and this is undoing that quite quickly. He needs to put Carrie in her place a bit or make her go out and get a job if she wants a nanny and £100k wallpaper.
    Carrie using the 'I have exquisite taste' defence was pretty nauseating.

    Boris not being able to control self-entitled extravagance at home doesn't give suggest that he's able to control things in the country.

    It makes him look weak and that's something no prime minister can survive.

    The extravagance is not the issue. If you can afford it, buy whatever you like. It's Johnson thinking he does not have to pay for it that will grate. Other people have to buy their wallpaper and child care. Why not him?

    Because people like him have all the emotional maturity of a spoilt 3-year old. I want therefore I get.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,227
    Covid numbers are very late today.
    IanB2 said:

    Today’s total Corona deaths of...one, is pretty amazing comparatively speaking.

    No update showing?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Cicero said:

    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.

    It was only a war because the losing side of a referendum mobilised to undo the result.
    It was more like the Russian Revolution, with the vote itself being the analogue to the February Revolution, followed by the Hard Brexiters effeectively staging a coup to overthrow any potential compromise. The jury is still out about what happens next, but it is probably not good for the Tories long term. Eventually the country will make some kind of peace with itself, and the extremists will get the kind of treatment that Trump is now facing.

    Be sure your sins will find you out, whether bad taste in decoration or giving Cummings the key to the sweetie shop.
    If the analogy is extended so that they remain in power until 2093, I am sure they will find a way to live with it.

    Albeit God help the rest of us.
This discussion has been closed.