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The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham – politicalbetting.com

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  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    glw said:

    MrEd said:

    A bit harsh @glw but let's flip it around - if the US Government was taking it seriously before the election, why would they allow someone who would be deemed to be a serious security risk take office.

    PS I don't usually do this but just to check where you stand on the crank / ignorant scale, do you believe Steele's dossier is true and that he got p1ssed upon? And do you have a Robert Mueller votive candle in your bedroom? *

    * joking on the latter but people did have them

    Investigating political candidates is incredibly sensitive, there was probably also an expectation that Clinton would win anyway. The Steele dossier is probably mostly true as little of it has been debunked, but that doesn't really matter the US govnerment was already investigating the Trump campaign, some of his associates were under investigation before Trump even declared his candidacy.
    So, do you believe he got p1ssed upon?

    If you are going to suggest someone is ignorant or a crank, it's only fair to show what sort of stuff you actually do believe

    As for the sensitivity, yes but it still doesn't answer the key point - if you believe there was a credible chance he was a Russian agent, you wouldn't take the chance regardless if you think the other candidate would win.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    Ron DeSantis has just told cities and municipalities that they can no longer have their own Covid restrictions.

    Yet another example of giving Puntinists what they want, because he can.

    And Scott & Rubio (for example) can not.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    ping said:

    Just topped up on lab in Hartlepool

    Modest stakes

    Hope you win that bet but I don't see it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited May 2021
    MrEd said:

    However, I go back to my main argument - why would the US Intelligence community allow someone who they seriously thought was in Putin's pocket to be President?

    You could raise similar questions in regards to about actions taken by Nixon (Vietnam) and Reagan (Iran) whilst they were candidates. The US intelligence community screws up a lot when cases are politically sensitive.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    ping said:

    MrEd said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1389335757169496074

    What do we think? Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Hello Correct - I'll take a bet, that it shows a massive Tory lead.
    Damn I’ve just topped up on lab

    How confident are you?
    Not very to be honest. And, as @Anabobazina will be along to tell you soon, my prediction means you should be topping that bet up a lot :)

    (in seriousness, I don't know and @rcs1000 is right, it could be about Scotland)
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    rcs1000 said:

    Ron DeSantis has just told cities and municipalities that they can no longer have their own Covid restrictions.

    Yet another example of giving Puntinists what they want, because he can.

    And Scott & Rubio (for example) can not.
    Exactly. The only other possible threat to DeSantis would have been Abbott of Texas but no chance given the energy crisis there.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    FOR THE RECORD.

    Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.

    And I should know!
  • Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Hartlepool will be Tory I think but have zero confidence in that prediction, it seems very hard to get any insider feel from the place.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    What's all this with horses.........

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaXJAYpt5Pk
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    Hartlepool will be Tory I think but have zero confidence in that prediction, it seems very hard to get any insider feel from the place.

    I am expecting Hartlepool to be LAB hold as I have posted here previously.

    And if I am wrong (not possible surely? :lol: ) I shall front it out on here - but I am not staying up for the declaration!

  • Seems to me that the current voting intention can be explained by likelihood to vote. Seems to have dropped off for the Tories and gone back up for Labour.

    I've said before, this is why I think the Tory lead is smaller than it appeared and less secure than it appeared.

    I think we're going to see ties for a while yet.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ron DeSantis has just told cities and municipalities that they can no longer have their own Covid restrictions.

    Yet another example of giving Puntinists what they want, because he can.

    And Scott & Rubio (for example) can not.
    Exactly. The only other possible threat to DeSantis would have been Abbott of Texas but no chance given the energy crisis there.
    Don't think Greg Abbot was ever a serious prospect, despite the fact he's political heir to W in Texas he's got less charisma or heft (Abbot that is) than a empty bottle of Lone Star beer.

    As for the future, keep in mind that things can change in the twinkling of an eye. Just ask President Muskie!

    Remember the days (maybe two weeks worth) when Mike Pentz was GOP front-runner for 2024?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    Ah, I see we are back at the "just asking questions" stage of our American politics discourse.

    It's really funny because Sidney Powell recently admitted only really stupid people believed the election was stolen from Trump.
    What, as opposed to having endless comments and suggestions that the US President was a Russian spy and was p1ssed on by Moscow call-girls?

    Because that's not a nuts theory.....
    Just how many senior Dems publicly said that was true?

    As opposed to the squillions of senior GOPers who said the election was stolen.
    So what was the first impeachment about?
    Ukraine
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    edited May 2021

    Hartlepool will be Tory I think but have zero confidence in that prediction, it seems very hard to get any insider feel from the place.

    I am expecting Hartlepool to be LAB hold as I have posted here previously.

    And if I am wrong (not possible surely? :lol: ) I shall front it out on here - but I am not staying up for the declaration!

    Ha ha, so will I although like you I certainly won’t be staying up. I find it impossible to care TBH!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    FOR THE RECORD.

    Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.

    And I should know!

    But until Melinda denies it too....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Seattle Times - FDA set to authorize Pfizer for 12- to 15-year-olds by next week
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    FOR THE RECORD.

    Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.

    And I should know!

    But until Melinda denies it too....
    That's the rub! Except, there was NO rubbing! Wrongly or rightly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    FOR THE RECORD.

    Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.

    And I should know!

    Bill?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    dixiedean said:

    FOR THE RECORD.

    Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.

    And I should know!

    Bill?
    He is most definitely NOT my type! THAT way, anyway.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
    He said quite a lot more!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    dixiedean said:

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
    He said quite a lot more!
    I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    dixiedean said:

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
    He said quite a lot more!
    I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?
    God bless us, everyone.

    Shit, that was Tiny Tim.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited May 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
    He said quite a lot more!
    I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?
    Probably a similarly tangled, tangential mess. Like the Japanese department store that had Santa on the cross for Christmas decorations.
    Although Confucius would be more analogous to Aristotle.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Love the irony:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/florida-republicans-mail-voting/2021/05/02/4c133920-a9bf-11eb-8c1a-56f0cb4ff3b5_story.html

    Florida GOP fear mail-in voting restrictions that they implemented in response to Trump's rantings my depress GOP turnout in the State. :dizzy:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
    He said quite a lot more!
    I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?
    God bless us, everyone.

    Shit, that was Tiny Tim.
    Blessed are the cheesemakers.

    Quotes are misattributed all the time after all.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
    He said quite a lot more!
    I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?
    Probably a tangled, tangential mess. Like the Japanese department store that had Santa on the cross for Christmas decorations.
    Something from Sermon on the Mount?

    My personal favorite, not a saying but nonetheless powerful communication: "Jesus wept."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited May 2021


    Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
    He said quite a lot more!I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?

    God bless us, everyone.

    Shit, that was Tiny Tim.Blessed are the cheesemakers.

    Quotes are misattributed all the time after all.

    And it applies to all manufacturers of dairy products.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1389335757169496074

    What do we think? Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Still have it as a Con. gain, low turnout and Brexity, can't see anything else. No need to worry, 2024 could be another matter.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    TimT said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    Ah, I see we are back at the "just asking questions" stage of our American politics discourse.

    It's really funny because Sidney Powell recently admitted only really stupid people believed the election was stolen from Trump.
    What, as opposed to having endless comments and suggestions that the US President was a Russian spy and was p1ssed on by Moscow call-girls?

    Because that's not a nuts theory.....
    Just how many senior Dems publicly said that was true?

    As opposed to the squillions of senior GOPers who said the election was stolen.
    So what was the first impeachment about?
    Ukraine
    Pointless virtue-signalling.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Little known saying of Confucius:

    "Making love is sublime; getting screwed. not so much."
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited May 2021

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    To add to that

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1389346749198766082

    Spin and bluster [referring to Cons playing down expectations]. The PM had been to Hartlepool three times now. He wouldn’t be lashing himself to the mast unless they had polling showing it was in the bag. Ignore the noise. Both sides desperately playing down expectations this weekend. Neither side able to disown the result.

    And public polls to show the same thing tomo.

    /End HCole quote.

    Seems to be a good Con lead going by teases.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1389335757169496074

    What do we think? Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Hello Correct - I'll take a bet, that it shows a massive Tory lead.
    It might not a Hartlepool poll at all. It could be Scotland. It could be UK. It could even be about Northern Ireland.
    Harry Cole confirming a Hartlepool poll, heavily hinting at a Con lead. Times Red Box also mention a second poll - Opinium were teasing a Scotland poll, so that's probably the second.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Chameleon said:

    Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?

    Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?

    I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.

    But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
    To add to that

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1389346749198766082

    Spin and bluster [referring to Cons playing down expectations]. The PM had been to Hartlepool three times now. He wouldn’t be lashing himself to the mast unless they had polling showing it was in the bag. Ignore the noise. Both sides desperately playing down expectations this weekend. Neither side able to disown the result.

    And public polls to show the same thing tomo.

    /End HCole quote.

    Seems to be a good Con lead going by teases.
    Worth noting that Johnson has a young baby at home, so I wouldn't blame him anything that got him out of the house.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited May 2021
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    My only question tho MrEd on the Russia stuff is of he has a actually read any of the Mueller report or only other people's summaries?

    Hands up, I have not read the whole lot. I really couldn't spare the time or the willpower.

    However, I go back to my main argument - why would the US Intelligence community allow someone who they seriously thought was in Putin's pocket to be President?
    Because their actual power is perhaps not as all-pervasive as most people (including themselves) think? Or rather, yes, they probably do have the power to veto a presidential candidate, either through some form of knobbling or by outright saying "X is a Russian/Chinese/British/Canadian/whatever agent". The problem is that that's not really something you do in a polity that still has pretensions to being a constitutional democratic republic. Yes, if they really did have solid evidence as Trump was heading for the GOP nomination that he was literally a Russian agent, actually on the payroll and taking direct orders from Vladimir Vladimirovitch, then they would have intervened, and Trump would have been prosecuted. End of story.

    But clearly, whatever one may think of Trump, he's not actually a real, fully paid-up officer of the GRU. The intelligence services may well have very good reason to think he was an "agent of influence" or, as Ilyich memorably termed it, a "useful idiot", but clearly they decided that that wasn't quite serious enough to justify the crypto-military intervening in the civil process. They realized that they had little option but to suck it up and deal, sit tight for four to eight years and make sure nothing really, or even slightly, sensitive got anywhere near the Resolute Desk. And so they did.

    Edit to add, and of course, making sure nothing really sensitive actually reaches the Oval Office is no doubt SOP for the three-letter agencies anyway, no matter who's in the White House.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Predictions: Con +6 in Hartlepool, Street winning the final round by 6% as well for tomorrow morning's polls. Nobody cares enough about the WoE mayor to poll about it.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Probably Tories +11, anything in single figures would still leave the outcome pretty open.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20

    "It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."

    If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20

    "It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."

    If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not

    I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Artist said:

    Probably Tories +11, anything in single figures would still leave the outcome pretty open.

    My forecast for the result, FWIW, is Con 13,000 votes, Lab 11,500, so that's pretty much in line with your estimate of the poll.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    edited May 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20

    "It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."

    If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not

    I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.
    Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAX

    It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God

    But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe


    eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C


    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs


    Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20

    "It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."

    If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not

    I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.
    Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAX

    It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God

    But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe


    eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C


    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs


    Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking
    I know you're concerned about Southern California, and so I really want to make sure you know that things are OK here. While the high was only 23 degrees today, the next five days are all in the mid 20s with sunshine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2021
    New Scotland Survation poll

    Holyrood constituency vote

    SNP 47%
    SCons 21%
    SLab 21%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 37%
    SCons 22%
    SLab 18%
    Greens 10%
    LDs 7%
    Alba 2%

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389357387610476548?s=20
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    New Scotland Survation poll

    Holyrood constituency vote

    SNP 47%
    SCons 21%
    SLab 21%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 37%
    SCons 22%
    SLab 18%
    Greens 10%
    LDs 7%
    Alba 2%

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389357387610476548?s=20

    Would be a marginal win for unionism to keep the SNP below 63. 2nd successive election sustaining losses - in the most positive atmosphere possible for them.

    I suspect that Ross is less tactical voting friendly than Davidson, so Cons will suffer a couple of close losses (might be balanced out by more general tactical voting), while Sarwar is more tactical voting friendly, which will result in some reduced SNP majorities, but basically no Labour gains from the SNP.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    New Scotland Survation poll

    Holyrood constituency vote

    SNP 47%
    SCons 21%
    SLab 21%
    LDs 8%

    List

    SNP 37%
    SCons 22%
    SLab 18%
    Greens 10%
    LDs 7%
    Alba 2%

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389357387610476548?s=20

    More importantly, Keir and Sarwar with good favourables.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1389353204576571395

    Sturgeon +18
    Sarwar +10
    Starmer +9
    Salmond -64(!)

    Opinium also with a Scottish poll out soon.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20

    "It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."

    If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not

    I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.
    Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAX

    It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God

    But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe


    eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C


    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs


    Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking
    I know you're concerned about Southern California, and so I really want to make sure you know that things are OK here. While the high was only 23 degrees today, the next five days are all in the mid 20s with sunshine.
    Just imagine IF the Mayflower, instead of sailing across the Atlantic, had veered south, rounded Cape Horn, headed north and landed at Santa Monica.

    The Pilgrim Fathers, like the early Californios, would never have felt the need to head any further east that Palm Springs.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1389253672161402880

    Survation Wales and Hartlepool confirmed for tomorrow/today.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20

    "It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."

    If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not

    I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.
    Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAX

    It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God

    But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe


    eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C


    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs


    Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking
    I know you're concerned about Southern California, and so I really want to make sure you know that things are OK here. While the high was only 23 degrees today, the next five days are all in the mid 20s with sunshine.
    Just imagine IF the Mayflower, instead of sailing across the Atlantic, had veered south, rounded Cape Horn, headed north and landed at Santa Monica.

    The Pilgrim Fathers, like the early Californios, would never have felt the need to head any further east that Palm Springs.
    Why would they have wanted to go as far East as Palm Springs? If you ask me, Glendale is far enough East,
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Chesham looks a shoe in for the Lib Dems
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Lib Dem candidate in place, apparently HQ operating and deliveries started. It is probably make or break for them. A good punt would be a double, Cons to win Hartlepoool and Lib Dems Chesham.
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