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The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,019
edited May 2021 in General
imageThe Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham – politicalbetting.com

If you had asked the Lib Dems after the 2019 General Election about the sort of seat where they would like to fight a by-election they would have probably said somewhere that voted Remain, where they were in a clear second place and not too far from the M25.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,262
    edited May 2021
    Blimey, I didn't even know that there was another by election on 6th May.

    Edit, oh its not been fixed yet.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,163
    Surely the Tories can do the seam and the Lib Dem’s, as a by election force, are not what they were under the heyday of Lord Rennard.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    Let's face it, the Lib Dems don't have a prayer.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    You know what I'd kinda like, a bet on the Tories winning Hartlepool but losing Chesham and Amersham. I would want comfortably odds-against odds on it, for sure, but it would be a great demonstration of the wider realigning trend.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    Let's face it, the Lib Dems don't have a prayer.

    I wouldn't go that far, actually. The party is in a sorry state, but in Witney and the 2019 General they had some really impressive swings in some southern Tory seats.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,112
    edited May 2021
    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    For Line of Duty fans, this sketch of the entire series in 140 seconds may appeal. Made me laugh out loud for the first time in yonks.

    https://twitter.com/KieranCHodgson/status/1389186251564142598?fbclid=IwAR09ZqpYwy1Oo8nmDSJhV-KBK9Kp3YzVR9SFU6I5Vv-zTStmQ8KwrzR2yZo
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957
    edited May 2021
    What about Airdrie and Shotts? Anyone know owt about how it is going there?
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    FPT:

    To the best of your knowledge, which of the following statements is correct?
    OA (SNP GE2019 vote) %
    Scotland sends more to Westminster in taxes than it receives in spending: 39 (65)

    Scotland receives more in spending than it sends in taxes to Westminster: 40 (19)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114
    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    dixiedean said:

    What about Airdrie and Shotts? Anyone know owt about how it is going there?

    I think it's thought to be safe for the SNP but it's a place Labour should have a good chance if they are reviving in Scotland.
  • Options
    PamelaWPamelaW Posts: 20
    Presumably Boris will analyse local election results over the weekend and then perhaps issue writ for Chesham & Amershsm next week meaning by-election mid-June or wait a bit longer?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,112
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957
    felix said:

    dixiedean said:

    What about Airdrie and Shotts? Anyone know owt about how it is going there?

    I think it's thought to be safe for the SNP but it's a place Labour should have a good chance if they are reviving in Scotland.
    Well they came within 195 votes in 2017.
    And that was with a trebling of the Tory vote.
    Another test for the oft-predicted, yet seldom seen, Unionist tactical vote.
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    And up until ten years ago was the law of the land and would still be so if DC had not wanted to over prove his liberal tendencies.

    Something has gone from been against the law to do, to been against the law to not wanting to have done.

    Though.. it hasnt really, i havent followed further but i would imagine theyll be no charges brought and the police officer involved told to stop been an idiot in future.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,917

    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.

    It's shifting for everyone who realises just how shit Brexit is.

    Ask the fisherman if they still love BoZo?

    Ask the DUP...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,112

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    And up until ten years ago was the law of the land and would still be so if DC had not wanted to over prove his liberal tendencies.

    Something has gone from been against the law to do, to been against the law to not wanting to have done.

    Though.. it hasnt really, i havent followed further but i would imagine theyll be no charges brought and the police officer involved told to stop been an idiot in future.
    He spent a night in a cell. That's how fucking stupid it is
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    What do you think he would have to say for a legal line to be crossed? How likely would he have done that?
    Marriage is between a man and woman only?
    All gay people will go to hell?
    All gay people should go to hell?
    Gay people will go to hell and you should help them get there?
    Gay people are trying to pervert your children, dont let them, resist.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,590
    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,590
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People are getting a bit fed up with this sort of thing.
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    The double standards are becoming more and more apparent. The police are not neutral actors in all this.
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    And up until ten years ago was the law of the land and would still be so if DC had not wanted to over prove his liberal tendencies.

    Something has gone from been against the law to do, to been against the law to not wanting to have done.

    Though.. it hasnt really, i havent followed further but i would imagine theyll be no charges brought and the police officer involved told to stop been an idiot in future.
    He spent a night in a cell. That's how fucking stupid it is
    Did he really?

    This happened up north.

    https://www.christiantoday.com/article/christian-street-preacher-receives-4000-payout-from-police-for-wrongful-arrest/133775.htm
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.

    It was only a war because the losing side of a referendum mobilised to undo the result.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    edited May 2021

    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.

    Sympathy votes, like personal votes, are rarely transferable. Even under STV let alone FPTP.

    EDIT - Perhaps the main, possible exception, is when the widow or widower of a sitting but now deceased politico is running to replace their loved one.

    Which may have helped Susan Wright in Texas 6th congressional district special election yesterday. Was not the major factor, but no doubt helped. Especially after robocalls accusing her of murdering her husband for political gain!
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited May 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Careful now

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT9xuXQjxMM
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,775
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People are getting a bit fed up with this sort of thing.
    If you mean 'religion' then let's hope so.
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.

    Sympathy votes, like personal votes, are rarely transferable. Even under STV let alone FPTP.
    Yes, there was no such sympathy for Gwyneth Dunwoody when she passed and Labour picked her daughter as the candidate. The by election turned a 7,000 labour majority to a 7,000 Conservative one.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited May 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Leon posting dubious shit dredged up from Twitter?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    The Good Law Project was set up by Jolyon Maugham. He is both its Executive Director and the only person with significant control - he is ostensibly accountable to the board but he also controls the board.

    It would be more accurate to call it the Jolyon Maugham Law Project.


    https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1389197809686130693?s=20
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,112
    edited May 2021
    The Daily Mail has the full story, which is actually even worse than the snippets before


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9521123/Moment-police-arrest-elderly-preacher-71-street-quoting-homophobic-statements-Bible.html


    Two remarkable paragraphs

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. He was even asked what he would do if his children were gay. The married father-of-two said: 'The question was irrelevant to the allegation against me. I said I would seek to bring them to Christ, but of course I would love them no matter what, because they're my children.' "

    "'The officer also stated that there is no freedom to make statements in public which offend people."

    Jesus F Christ. A police officer doesn't know the basic tenets of Free Speech. We have overturned the Enlightenment to satisfy a bunch of Marxists, Islamists and hardcore trans-campaigners, and the result is that we are hopelessly confused and spineless, and every time we take the cowardly path of surrender, another bit of Freedom disappears

    The West is Doomed. It really is. Bring on the aliens
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Scott_xP said:

    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.

    It's shifting for everyone who realises just how shit Brexit is.

    Ask the fisherman if they still love BoZo?

    Ask the DUP...

    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.

    It was only a war because the losing side of a referendum mobilised to undo the result.
    It largely continues to be a war online because some people on both sides can't resist stirring the pot like this. It doesn't achieve anything.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    And up until ten years ago was the law of the land and would still be so if DC had not wanted to over prove his liberal tendencies.

    Something has gone from been against the law to do, to been against the law to not wanting to have done.

    Though.. it hasnt really, i havent followed further but i would imagine theyll be no charges brought and the police officer involved told to stop been an idiot in future.
    He spent a night in a cell. That's how fucking stupid it is
    Did he really?

    This happened up north.

    https://www.christiantoday.com/article/christian-street-preacher-receives-4000-payout-from-police-for-wrongful-arrest/133775.htm
    That chap seems to be a serial beneficiary of compensation payments for wrongful arrest. An obvious nutter - but we should allow nutters to whirl away, not jail them and then compensate them.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,112
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Leon posting dubious shit dredged up from Twitter?

    Indeed so.
    It's all true. He's been interviewed by multiple journalists and no one denies it.

    This is your standard reaction to Yet Another Example of Woke Madness. First shoot the messenger, then smear the message, then claim it's all irrelevant, then when it becomes apparent the story as presented is true and concerning you try and talk up some other issue very quickly so we all move on.

    We see your game
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    And up until ten years ago was the law of the land and would still be so if DC had not wanted to over prove his liberal tendencies.

    Something has gone from been against the law to do, to been against the law to not wanting to have done.

    Though.. it hasnt really, i havent followed further but i would imagine theyll be no charges brought and the police officer involved told to stop been an idiot in future.
    He spent a night in a cell. That's how fucking stupid it is
    Did he really?

    This happened up north.

    https://www.christiantoday.com/article/christian-street-preacher-receives-4000-payout-from-police-for-wrongful-arrest/133775.htm
    That chap seems to be a serial beneficiary of compensation payments for wrongful arrest. An obvious nutter - but we should allow nutters to whirl away, not jail them and then compensate them.
    If they hadnt wrongfully jailed him they wouldnt have had to compensate him.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    UK's "fully vaccinated" is actually ahead of the EU's first dosed now.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,626

    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.

    We won't win it, but that is because we are doing rubbish currently, however your logic is flawed. Can I remind you the Liberals overturned a 17K majority to win by 4K in Eastbourne after the IRA blew up Ian Gow.

    If ever a sympathy vote was deserved it was then and the voters did not do so with quite some gusto.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Leon posting dubious shit dredged up from Twitter?

    Indeed so.
    It's all true. He's been interviewed by multiple journalists and no one denies it.

    This is your standard reaction to Yet Another Example of Woke Madness. First shoot the messenger, then smear the message, then claim it's all irrelevant, then when it becomes apparent the story as presented is true and concerning you try and talk up some other issue very quickly so we all move on.

    We see your game
    It might be true. It might be important. But your strike rate on 'culture war' stories is low on both counts, so I make the opposite assumption, which saves time.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,973
    Remember when betting here the Lib Dem candidate is likely to be Philip Lee
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,775
    eek said:

    Remember when betting here the Lib Dem candidate is likely to be Philip Lee

    The Philip Lee?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    Interesting example of widow succeeding husband in political office took place in early 1930s in Arkansas. US Senator died in office, and his wife, Hattie Caraway was appointed in his place, pending special election to fill remainder of term.

    Arkansas politicos believed the widow was a political nothing, and a fierce competition emerged to replace her. However, Mrs. Caraway decided she'd run in the special election anyway. And found support from an unexpected source: her Senate colleague, Huey Long from Louisiana.

    Huey Long was THE power in Louisiana politics, and was beginning to emerge as a national figure on the political stage, as a populist radical alternative to Franklin Roosevelt. Huey saw Hattie and the seemingly hopeless race in neighboring Arkansas as a golden opportunity - for himself.

    With Hattie in tow, Huey launched a whirlwind political invasion of Arkansas, complete with sound trucks and an army of advance men, organizers and helpers to prepare the way. He and Mrs Caraway criss-crossed Arkansas over a two-week period before the special election.

    Huey's message was simple and clear: a horde of cheap-jack, politicians-as-usual were fighting like cats in a bag, trying to pull themselves up because they wanted Hattie Caraway's job! And working together to get rid of her cause she was fighting alongside me in the Senate for YOU - for the working people of Arkansas and the United States!

    (Sound familiar?)

    The impact of Huey's intervention and invasion was decisive. Hattie won the special election handily. And Huey Long was well-launched as a national political force to be reckoned with, by every politico AND voter in America.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    And up until ten years ago was the law of the land and would still be so if DC had not wanted to over prove his liberal tendencies.

    Something has gone from been against the law to do, to been against the law to not wanting to have done.

    Though.. it hasnt really, i havent followed further but i would imagine theyll be no charges brought and the police officer involved told to stop been an idiot in future.
    He spent a night in a cell. That's how fucking stupid it is
    Did he really?

    This happened up north.

    https://www.christiantoday.com/article/christian-street-preacher-receives-4000-payout-from-police-for-wrongful-arrest/133775.htm
    That chap seems to be a serial beneficiary of compensation payments for wrongful arrest. An obvious nutter - but we should allow nutters to whirl away, not jail them and then compensate them.
    If they hadnt wrongfully jailed him they wouldnt have had to compensate him.
    Absolutely. But the fact that he was compensated means that the flat feet screwed up and didn't understand the very laws they're supposed to be policing - an obvious training issue. Hardly the 'End of the Enlightenment'.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,114
    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    Remember when betting here the Lib Dem candidate is likely to be Philip Lee

    The Philip Lee?
    The world doesn't need two....
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,112

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,973
    An interesting read on Northern Ireland just for the anecdote https://unherd.com/2021/05/northern-ireland-has-no-hope/?=frbottom
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,166
    Lib Dems in Chesham, Labour in Hartlepool? Not a chance.

    Johnson has ridden the storm and seized back the agenda. Sky headlines are "Boris Johnson..." followed by good news, this time, social distancing to end.

    Johnson has won the war on Covid and the war on wallpaper. Move along, nothing to see.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,112
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    I think it's best for all
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    The video doesn't show what he was saying before the police arrest him following what they can be heard to describe as 'Complaints from members of the public that [you] have caused them harm and distress by making [homophobic statements]'. Since we don't hear what he said, I really don't see how we can conclude if their behaviour is justified.
    There's a longer video (I'll try and link) where you can hear him preaching that marriage is for "a man and a woman only"

    This is basic Christian doctrine, I believe? Besides, this is a matter of opinion, and he is entitled to his opinion and entitled to speak it. He does not stir up hatred or violence

    And up until ten years ago was the law of the land and would still be so if DC had not wanted to over prove his liberal tendencies.

    Something has gone from been against the law to do, to been against the law to not wanting to have done.

    Though.. it hasnt really, i havent followed further but i would imagine theyll be no charges brought and the police officer involved told to stop been an idiot in future.
    He spent a night in a cell. That's how fucking stupid it is
    Did he really?

    This happened up north.

    https://www.christiantoday.com/article/christian-street-preacher-receives-4000-payout-from-police-for-wrongful-arrest/133775.htm
    That chap seems to be a serial beneficiary of compensation payments for wrongful arrest. An obvious nutter - but we should allow nutters to whirl away, not jail them and then compensate them.
    If they hadnt wrongfully jailed him they wouldnt have had to compensate him.
    Absolutely. But the fact that he was compensated means that the flat feet screwed up and didn't understand the very laws they're supposed to be policing - an obvious training issue. Hardly the 'End of the Enlightenment'.
    Whilst that wasnt the term i used, though i do think we (the west) are entering the end of the enlightenment.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    For what it's worth . . .

    Seattle Times - Downtown Seattle dying? Not so fast. Demand for office space roars back to pre-pandemic levels

    . . . . An index that measures the demand among companies for leasing new office space showed that in December, the Seattle market had experienced the biggest drop in the nation since the start of the pandemic — and that happened despite the fact that our office-using employment numbers had fully recovered.

    What a difference a few months can make.

    That same index now shows that demand for office space in the Seattle market has come roaring back since the beginning of the year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

    New York-based VTS, which provides leasing and asset management software for commercial real estate landlords, has produced this index number for major markets since January 2018 — the level of interest in new office space in that month was set as an index score of 100 for each market.

    From 2018 to 2019, Seattle had an average monthly index score of 90. That, of course, was before the pandemic had closed down offices, requiring millions of employees to work from home. By December 2020, Seattle’s index number had plummeted to a dismal 17 . . . .

    But in 2021, Seattle has experienced a tremendous rebound, with interest in new office space growing each month. As of March, the index for interest in office space had shot past the pre-pandemic average, hitting 107.

    “There can be a dramatic effect when you’re combining some of the pent-up demand for office tenants to return to the market with an improving employment situation,” said Eli Gilbert, head of market research for VTS. “The growth of the employment base in Seattle is the highest among the core markets.”

    And of course, the rebound couldn’t have happened without the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines.

    “A lot of tenants are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Gilbert said. “They want to at least begin the space-search process, which can take months if not quarters before it turns into a signed lease.” . . .
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,775

    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    Remember when betting here the Lib Dem candidate is likely to be Philip Lee

    The Philip Lee?
    The world doesn't need two....
    I didn't have high hopes for the first to be honest. Still no idea who he is.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    edited May 2021
    Something like 45 - 35 - 10 perhaps ?
    TheLDs are good at BEs but it's a stiff order to defeat a reasonably popular strong Gov't seat. Reform might be able to peel a bit off the Tories to help them.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    For what it's worth . . .

    Seattle Times - Downtown Seattle dying? Not so fast. Demand for office space roars back to pre-pandemic levels

    . . . . An index that measures the demand among companies for leasing new office space showed that in December, the Seattle market had experienced the biggest drop in the nation since the start of the pandemic — and that happened despite the fact that our office-using employment numbers had fully recovered.

    What a difference a few months can make.

    That same index now shows that demand for office space in the Seattle market has come roaring back since the beginning of the year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

    New York-based VTS, which provides leasing and asset management software for commercial real estate landlords, has produced this index number for major markets since January 2018 — the level of interest in new office space in that month was set as an index score of 100 for each market.

    From 2018 to 2019, Seattle had an average monthly index score of 90. That, of course, was before the pandemic had closed down offices, requiring millions of employees to work from home. By December 2020, Seattle’s index number had plummeted to a dismal 17 . . . .

    But in 2021, Seattle has experienced a tremendous rebound, with interest in new office space growing each month. As of March, the index for interest in office space had shot past the pre-pandemic average, hitting 107.

    “There can be a dramatic effect when you’re combining some of the pent-up demand for office tenants to return to the market with an improving employment situation,” said Eli Gilbert, head of market research for VTS. “The growth of the employment base in Seattle is the highest among the core markets.”

    And of course, the rebound couldn’t have happened without the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines.

    “A lot of tenants are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Gilbert said. “They want to at least begin the space-search process, which can take months if not quarters before it turns into a signed lease.” . . .

    Fully recovered, or it's just accumulated demand?
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,773

    FPT:

    To the best of your knowledge, which of the following statements is correct?
    OA (SNP GE2019 vote) %
    Scotland sends more to Westminster in taxes than it receives in spending: 39 (65)

    Scotland receives more in spending than it sends in taxes to Westminster: 40 (19)

    'Receives IN spending' open to differing interpretations - did they specify identifiable/non-identifiable or total? (Debt interest, defence underspend in Scotland, financing a share of Westminster Parliament/Foreign office staff in UK etc.)
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    Luckily the CIA is recruiting “intersectional cisgender millennials” with “generalised anxiety disorder" because they are “worth it”.

    https://twitter.com/cia/status/1387431636732633089
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    RobD said:

    For what it's worth . . .

    Seattle Times - Downtown Seattle dying? Not so fast. Demand for office space roars back to pre-pandemic levels

    . . . . An index that measures the demand among companies for leasing new office space showed that in December, the Seattle market had experienced the biggest drop in the nation since the start of the pandemic — and that happened despite the fact that our office-using employment numbers had fully recovered.

    What a difference a few months can make.

    That same index now shows that demand for office space in the Seattle market has come roaring back since the beginning of the year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

    New York-based VTS, which provides leasing and asset management software for commercial real estate landlords, has produced this index number for major markets since January 2018 — the level of interest in new office space in that month was set as an index score of 100 for each market.

    From 2018 to 2019, Seattle had an average monthly index score of 90. That, of course, was before the pandemic had closed down offices, requiring millions of employees to work from home. By December 2020, Seattle’s index number had plummeted to a dismal 17 . . . .

    But in 2021, Seattle has experienced a tremendous rebound, with interest in new office space growing each month. As of March, the index for interest in office space had shot past the pre-pandemic average, hitting 107.

    “There can be a dramatic effect when you’re combining some of the pent-up demand for office tenants to return to the market with an improving employment situation,” said Eli Gilbert, head of market research for VTS. “The growth of the employment base in Seattle is the highest among the core markets.”

    And of course, the rebound couldn’t have happened without the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines.

    “A lot of tenants are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Gilbert said. “They want to at least begin the space-search process, which can take months if not quarters before it turns into a signed lease.” . . .

    Fully recovered, or it's just accumulated demand?
    You're a betting man, what do YOU think?
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    Yes, your contributions to this site provide further evidence of the absence of free speech in this country, don't they?

    I'm not sure that an example of over-zealous coppers really marks the end of the Enlightenment, although the preacher concerned doesn't seem to have benefited from the Enlightenment. It's poor policing, though, I agree.

    Incidentally, I had a look at the Twitter account that you fed the story from originally. 'one_jason' also doesn't seem to be suffering from an absence of free speech, as evidenced by his vitriolic attacks on Bill Gates, vaccines and masks. He's a nutter, freely tweeting (and yes, I know that doesn't make this particular story untrue).
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,590
    Selby 13-10 Murphy
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Interesting example of widow succeeding husband in political office took place in early 1930s in Arkansas. US Senator died in office, and his wife, Hattie Caraway was appointed in his place, pending special election to fill remainder of term.

    Arkansas politicos believed the widow was a political nothing, and a fierce competition emerged to replace her. However, Mrs. Caraway decided she'd run in the special election anyway. And found support from an unexpected source: her Senate colleague, Huey Long from Louisiana.

    Huey Long was THE power in Louisiana politics, and was beginning to emerge as a national figure on the political stage, as a populist radical alternative to Franklin Roosevelt. Huey saw Hattie and the seemingly hopeless race in neighboring Arkansas as a golden opportunity - for himself.

    With Hattie in tow, Huey launched a whirlwind political invasion of Arkansas, complete with sound trucks and an army of advance men, organizers and helpers to prepare the way. He and Mrs Caraway criss-crossed Arkansas over a two-week period before the special election.

    Huey's message was simple and clear: a horde of cheap-jack, politicians-as-usual were fighting like cats in a bag, trying to pull themselves up because they wanted Hattie Caraway's job! And working together to get rid of her cause she was fighting alongside me in the Senate for YOU - for the working people of Arkansas and the United States!

    (Sound familiar?)

    The impact of Huey's intervention and invasion was decisive. Hattie won the special election handily. And Huey Long was well-launched as a national political force to be reckoned with, by every politico AND voter in America.

    The fictional Willie Stark in 'All the Kings Men' was allegedly based on Huey Long.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgJC4Pu_tbo

    "But I am gonna tell you a story. It's a funny story so get ready to laugh....Get ready to bust your sides laughin', 'cause it's sure a funny story. It's about a hick. A hick like you, if you please. Yeah, like you. He grew up on the dirt roads and the gully washes of a farm. He knew what it was to get up before dawn and get feed and slop and milk before breakfast, and then set out before sunup and walk six miles to a one-room, slab-sided schoolhouse. Aw, this hick knew what it was to be a hick, all right. He figured if he was gonna get anything done, well, he had to do it himself. So he sat up nights and studied books. He studied law, because he thought he might be able to change things some - for himself and for folks like him. Now I'm not gonna lie to ya. He didn't start off thinkin' about the hicks and all the wonderful things he was gonna do for 'em. Naw, naw, he's done it all thinkin' of number one. But something came to him on the way. How he could do nothin' for himself without the help of the people. That's what came to him. And it also came to him with the powerful force of God's own lightning back in his own county when the school building collapsed 'cause it was built of politics' rotten brick...."

    If Huey Long was even a tiny fraction as good as Wille Stark, small wonder he won.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    edited May 2021
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    NYT - Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
    Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

    (paywall)
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Isn't Germany vaccinating at a pretty good rate now? surely by mid September the whole nation will be fully vaccinated.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited May 2021
    Hmm. Must say I’m generally in favour of free speech for nutters. The line that should be policed is harassment.

    Street preachers tread that thin line.

    Looks like the police overreacted in that case. He deserved an apology. Not sure about the payout, though.

    @Leon ’s talk of the end of the enlightenment and fall of the west is somewhat overblown.
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    ping said:

    Hmm. Must say I’m generally in favour of free speech for nutters. The line that should be policed is harassment.

    Street preachers tread that thin line.

    Looks like the police overreacted in that case. He deserved an apology. Not sure about the payout, though.

    Yes. The thin line would be repeated singling out of individuals in the crowd. Incitement is highly unlikely and 'insulting' has been removed from public order legislation.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328
    On topic, I think Chesham and Amersham is too much of a stretch for the Lib Dems.

    It's too much of a traditional Shire Tory seat, notwithstanding it voted Remain, and in every election the Conservatives have had an absolute majority of votes cast.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561

    Interesting example of widow succeeding husband in political office took place in early 1930s in Arkansas. US Senator died in office, and his wife, Hattie Caraway was appointed in his place, pending special election to fill remainder of term.

    Arkansas politicos believed the widow was a political nothing, and a fierce competition emerged to replace her. However, Mrs. Caraway decided she'd run in the special election anyway. And found support from an unexpected source: her Senate colleague, Huey Long from Louisiana.

    Huey Long was THE power in Louisiana politics, and was beginning to emerge as a national figure on the political stage, as a populist radical alternative to Franklin Roosevelt. Huey saw Hattie and the seemingly hopeless race in neighboring Arkansas as a golden opportunity - for himself.

    With Hattie in tow, Huey launched a whirlwind political invasion of Arkansas, complete with sound trucks and an army of advance men, organizers and helpers to prepare the way. He and Mrs Caraway criss-crossed Arkansas over a two-week period before the special election.

    Huey's message was simple and clear: a horde of cheap-jack, politicians-as-usual were fighting like cats in a bag, trying to pull themselves up because they wanted Hattie Caraway's job! And working together to get rid of her cause she was fighting alongside me in the Senate for YOU - for the working people of Arkansas and the United States!

    (Sound familiar?)

    The impact of Huey's intervention and invasion was decisive. Hattie won the special election handily. And Huey Long was well-launched as a national political force to be reckoned with, by every politico AND voter in America.

    The fictional Willie Stark in 'All the Kings Men' was allegedly based on Huey Long.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgJC4Pu_tbo

    "But I am gonna tell you a story. It's a funny story so get ready to laugh....Get ready to bust your sides laughin', 'cause it's sure a funny story. It's about a hick. A hick like you, if you please. Yeah, like you. He grew up on the dirt roads and the gully washes of a farm. He knew what it was to get up before dawn and get feed and slop and milk before breakfast, and then set out before sunup and walk six miles to a one-room, slab-sided schoolhouse. Aw, this hick knew what it was to be a hick, all right. He figured if he was gonna get anything done, well, he had to do it himself. So he sat up nights and studied books. He studied law, because he thought he might be able to change things some - for himself and for folks like him. Now I'm not gonna lie to ya. He didn't start off thinkin' about the hicks and all the wonderful things he was gonna do for 'em. Naw, naw, he's done it all thinkin' of number one. But something came to him on the way. How he could do nothin' for himself without the help of the people. That's what came to him. And it also came to him with the powerful force of God's own lightning back in his own county when the school building collapsed 'cause it was built of politics' rotten brick...."

    If Huey Long was even a tiny fraction as good as Wille Stark, small wonder he won.
    He was better. Check out classic biography "Huey Long" (1969) based on massive research including numerous interviews with people who actually knew & worked with (and against) the Kingfish, by a first-rate historian (author of "Lincoln and His Generals")

    T. Harry Williams was living legend at Louisiana State University when I was a student there. At one point in my checkered academic career found myself imprisoned in a VERY boring class I could not stand. Until I discovered that T. Harry was lecturing on the Civil War at the same time in the same building, only he was in the BIG lecture hall with a class of hundreds of students.

    So stopped going to the class I was registered in (without informing the registrar) and started sitting on on T. Harry's class (ditto). And have NEVER regretted it, even though I ended up with a big fat F on my (already blotted) grade report.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,590
    Chesham and Amersham:

    Prediction: Con 50%, LD 40%, Others 10%.
  • Options
    CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Predictions on the Redfield and Wilson poll coming out at 5pm? Last week was 10pts ahead.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977
    kjh said:

    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.

    We won't win it, but that is because we are doing rubbish currently, however your logic is flawed. Can I remind you the Liberals overturned a 17K majority to win by 4K in Eastbourne after the IRA blew up Ian Gow.

    If ever a sympathy vote was deserved it was then and the voters did not do so with quite some gusto.
    Can I refer everyone yo the 1993 Newbury by-election. Wikipedia says; the Newbury by-election, in West Berkshire, England, was held on 6 May 1993 after Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Judith Chaplin died, after only being elected the previous year. It was won by David Rendel of the Liberal Democrats with a large swing of 28.4%, and well over twice as many votes as the Conservative candidate.
    Similar area. I think.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957

    kjh said:

    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.

    We won't win it, but that is because we are doing rubbish currently, however your logic is flawed. Can I remind you the Liberals overturned a 17K majority to win by 4K in Eastbourne after the IRA blew up Ian Gow.

    If ever a sympathy vote was deserved it was then and the voters did not do so with quite some gusto.
    Can I refer everyone yo the 1993 Newbury by-election. Wikipedia says; the Newbury by-election, in West Berkshire, England, was held on 6 May 1993 after Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Judith Chaplin died, after only being elected the previous year. It was won by David Rendel of the Liberal Democrats with a large swing of 28.4%, and well over twice as many votes as the Conservative candidate.
    Similar area. I think.
    Not similar times, mind.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957
    Crucial frame coming up.
    14-11 or 13-12?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    Did the snooker ever have fake coughing noises whilst it was crowdless :D ?
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited May 2021
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    Yes, your contributions to this site provide further evidence of the absence of free speech in this country, don't they?

    I'm not sure that an example of over-zealous coppers really marks the end of the Enlightenment, although the preacher concerned doesn't seem to have benefited from the Enlightenment. It's poor policing, though, I agree.

    Incidentally, I had a look at the Twitter account that you fed the story from originally. 'one_jason' also doesn't seem to be suffering from an absence of free speech, as evidenced by his vitriolic attacks on Bill Gates, vaccines and masks. He's a nutter, freely tweeting (and yes, I know that doesn't make this particular story untrue).
    The end of the Enlightenment risks happening because we are deftly moving from a society that judges individuals by their character and actions towards one that judges them by immutable characteristics we cannot change, such as our race, gender and sexuality.

    That guarantees injustice, polarisation and division. What's remarkable is how few people seem to be able to see this as the wholly backward step that it is and at odds, for example, with the classic tenets of liberalism.

    It's not nutters either. Matthew Syed wrote powerfully about it this weekend.
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    HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    LDs should push their no vax passport for the pub message strongly - plenty of disaffected Con voters - like me - who don’t care for wallpaper gossip but want to see unlocking happening faster and more comprehensively.

    A B/E is a chance for the electorate to send a message - an open goal for the LDs if they want it.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    ping said:
    How very modern. An article about the Red Wall behind a Pay Wall.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited May 2021
    Fenman said:

    ping said:
    How very modern. An article about the Red Wall behind a Pay Wall.
    https://www.ft.com/content/e8fb3676-b4df-499c-a289-168dc580891c

    If you wanna knock a brick through the red wall pay wall, copy/paste ^ into google, then click through.

    Alternatively, if you want to help pay Seb’s rent, get an ft sub.

    Personally, I’m a tight bastard.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.

    We won't win it, but that is because we are doing rubbish currently, however your logic is flawed. Can I remind you the Liberals overturned a 17K majority to win by 4K in Eastbourne after the IRA blew up Ian Gow.

    If ever a sympathy vote was deserved it was then and the voters did not do so with quite some gusto.
    Can I refer everyone yo the 1993 Newbury by-election. Wikipedia says; the Newbury by-election, in West Berkshire, England, was held on 6 May 1993 after Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Judith Chaplin died, after only being elected the previous year. It was won by David Rendel of the Liberal Democrats with a large swing of 28.4%, and well over twice as many votes as the Conservative candidate.
    Similar area. I think.
    Not similar times, mind.
    Gentleman John's government used to get some serious punishment beatings. I wonder if that kind of behaviour from the electorate will ever return. Judging by the attitude to sleaze - the Tories' transgressions back then were miniscule compared to what's tolerated today - probably not.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,651
    Vaccinated Singapore nurse comes down with COVID:

    https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/tan-tock-seng-hospital-bars-visitors-after-vaccinated-nurse-contracts-covid-19/

    She'll have had either Pfizer or Moderna.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    One of the things that is disturbing (and Cyclefree has written about this) is that some police officers seem completely ignorant of the laws which they were meant to be enforcing.

    It would help if we were to abolish the notion of recording "hate incidents". Something is either a crime or it is not, and the police should only be concerned with the former.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,590
    "Edinburgh lecturer Neil Thin faces action over ‘problematic’ views

    An academic at the centre of a freedom of speech row at Edinburgh University will face “action”, his department head has suggested.

    Several students have used online forums to accuse Dr Neil Thin, senior lecturer in social anthropology at the University of Edinburgh, of being racist, sexist and “problematic”.

    Thin was targeted after he raised concerns over an event entitled Resisting Whiteness featuring an area that was exclusively for people of colour, which he branded “segregation”." {£}

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/edinburgh-lecturer-neil-thin-faces-action-over-problematic-views-77rqkfwqf
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,177

    Vaccinated Singapore nurse comes down with COVID:

    https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/tan-tock-seng-hospital-bars-visitors-after-vaccinated-nurse-contracts-covid-19/

    She'll have had either Pfizer or Moderna.

    This really shouldn’t be newsworthy. We don’t expect vaccination to abolish all cases. They don’t need to.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    ping said:
    How very modern. An article about the Red Wall behind a Pay Wall.
    https://www.ft.com/content/e8fb3676-b4df-499c-a289-168dc580891c

    If you wanna knock a brick through the red wall pay wall, copy/paste ^ into google, then click through.

    Alternatively, if you want to help pay Seb’s rent, get an ft sub.

    Personally, I’m a tight bastard.
    Personally, I'm a lazy bastard. And tight!

    If citing a story behind a paywall, I like to include a brief summary of the gist so that others can decide IF they think they need to actually seek it from the horse's mouth (or other end as case may be).
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,214
    edited May 2021

    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.

    It was only a war because the losing side of a referendum mobilised to undo the result.
    It was more like the Russian Revolution, with the vote itself being the analogue to the February Revolution, followed by the Hard Brexiters effeectively staging a coup to overthrow any potential compromise. The jury is still out about what happens next, but it is probably not good for the Tories long term. Eventually the country will make some kind of peace with itself, and the extremists will get the kind of treatment that Trump is now facing.

    Be sure your sins will find you out, whether bad taste in decoration or giving Cummings the key to the sweetie shop.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    Andy_JS said:

    "Edinburgh lecturer Neil Thin faces action over ‘problematic’ views

    An academic at the centre of a freedom of speech row at Edinburgh University will face “action”, his department head has suggested.

    Several students have used online forums to accuse Dr Neil Thin, senior lecturer in social anthropology at the University of Edinburgh, of being racist, sexist and “problematic”.

    Thin was targeted after he raised concerns over an event entitled Resisting Whiteness featuring an area that was exclusively for people of colour, which he branded “segregation”." {£}

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/edinburgh-lecturer-neil-thin-faces-action-over-problematic-views-77rqkfwqf

    During a variegated, up-and-down academic career, yours truly encountered a whole slew of "problematic" professors & instructors.

    Which I'm beginning to think MAY be grounds for a legal suit challenging certain adverse rulings in education settings, as being result of the problematic teaching I suffered due to problematic teachers hired, nurtured & upheld over me by a problematic education system.

    Would retain TSE, but he's already fully occupied with my representation in the West West Virginia matter.

    Gallowglass? Could be just the case to establish your legal reputation! All you need to do first, is pass the bar exam in about a half-dozen states this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific).

    As alternative, wonder what Sidney & Rudy are up to these days?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977
    Pulpstar said:

    Did the snooker ever have fake coughing noises whilst it was crowdless :D ?

    No, but 'Millionaire' did.

    Sorry, couldn't resist
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Not enough of them have, particularly in the professional classes and metropolitan elites. Indeed, many still defend it - vociferously.

    It's going to get worse.
    Yes, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (tho it will, one day, get better)

    The Chinese surely, cannot believe their luck. Just as they ascend to power, the West decides to unilaterally disarm, throwing away one of its greatest assets: the principle of Free Speech, the essence of the Enlightenment

    Look at the way the preacher is grilled by the cops:

    "Mr Sherwood [the preacher] said officers grilled him over his attitude to gay people. "

    They are literally seeking out thought-crime. Do you have bad thoughts???

    We are no better than the Chinese, in many ways - no freer in our minds - and at least the Chinese are militantly proud of their own culture, and would never let it be warped or degraded in this fashion.

    In short, We're fucked
    I'm leaving this thread now.
    Don't let Leon cancel you! Resist!
    Not scared of him. Completely autonomous decision. I'm watching the snooker.
    So snookering out, are you? Typical wokeist behavoir!
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Man arrested in the streets of London.... simply for preaching Christianity (though, apparently, some of the less gay-friendly passages eg marriage is only for "men and women")

    Meanwhile, professional football matches stop for the breaking of the Ramadan fast: because, "respect"


    https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1388760623081721856?s=20

    People have had just about enough of this sort of thing.
    Leon posting dubious shit dredged up from Twitter?

    Indeed so.
    It's all true. He's been interviewed by multiple journalists and no one denies it.

    This is your standard reaction to Yet Another Example of Woke Madness. First shoot the messenger, then smear the message, then claim it's all irrelevant, then when it becomes apparent the story as presented is true and concerning you try and talk up some other issue very quickly so we all move on.

    We see your game
    Reminds me of -

    https://twitter.com/niall_gooch/status/1387377318021189632

    Literally no-one is asking for this -> OK, a few fringe academics are talking about it but no-one serious -> What's your actual objection to this? -> This needs to happen as a Matter Of Justice -> If you oppose this, you are killing people -> It's the law now, you lost. Shut up.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    Andy_JS said:

    "Edinburgh lecturer Neil Thin faces action over ‘problematic’ views

    An academic at the centre of a freedom of speech row at Edinburgh University will face “action”, his department head has suggested.

    Several students have used online forums to accuse Dr Neil Thin, senior lecturer in social anthropology at the University of Edinburgh, of being racist, sexist and “problematic”.

    Thin was targeted after he raised concerns over an event entitled Resisting Whiteness featuring an area that was exclusively for people of colour, which he branded “segregation”." {£}

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/edinburgh-lecturer-neil-thin-faces-action-over-problematic-views-77rqkfwqf

    In my day, academics would never get involved in whatever silly antics the Student Union was cooking up. They'd see it as not their place and, rightly, probably beneath them. This guy should have butted out. They'll be plenty of people in the student body happy to take up the cudgels.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,977

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    Unless the Tories chose Dominic Cummings as their candidate - for the shitz and gigglez of seeing him lose - the LibDems won't come within light years of taking this seat. As a reminder, the by-election is following the death from cancer of a very well-regarded MP. Amersham is the sort of place it would be social death to vote LibDem in those circumstances.

    We won't win it, but that is because we are doing rubbish currently, however your logic is flawed. Can I remind you the Liberals overturned a 17K majority to win by 4K in Eastbourne after the IRA blew up Ian Gow.

    If ever a sympathy vote was deserved it was then and the voters did not do so with quite some gusto.
    Can I refer everyone yo the 1993 Newbury by-election. Wikipedia says; the Newbury by-election, in West Berkshire, England, was held on 6 May 1993 after Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Judith Chaplin died, after only being elected the previous year. It was won by David Rendel of the Liberal Democrats with a large swing of 28.4%, and well over twice as many votes as the Conservative candidate.
    Similar area. I think.
    Not similar times, mind.
    Gentleman John's government used to get some serious punishment beatings. I wonder if that kind of behaviour from the electorate will ever return. Judging by the attitude to sleaze - the Tories' transgressions back then were miniscule compared to what's tolerated today - probably not.
    I suspect there are quite a lot of John Lewis customers in the area, though.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,333

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    ping said:
    How very modern. An article about the Red Wall behind a Pay Wall.
    https://www.ft.com/content/e8fb3676-b4df-499c-a289-168dc580891c

    If you wanna knock a brick through the red wall pay wall, copy/paste ^ into google, then click through.

    Alternatively, if you want to help pay Seb’s rent, get an ft sub.

    Personally, I’m a tight bastard.
    Personally, I'm a lazy bastard. And tight!

    If citing a story behind a paywall, I like to include a brief summary of the gist so that others can decide IF they think they need to actually seek it from the horse's mouth (or other end as case may be).
    Summary: Tory Mayor popular, signs are that Tories ahead in Hartlepool and more widely the red wall - though only anedotal, plus a gloomy assessment from a Shadow cabinet minister.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057
    Cicero said:

    This country still hasn't got over the Brexit wars. About half the population see Boris as the man who fought against the odds and delivered Brexit despite the opposition of the liberal-establishment masters. That's a heady accomplishment. No amount of harrumphing over wallpaper will shift that kind of devotion.

    It was only a war because the losing side of a referendum mobilised to undo the result.
    It was more like the Russian Revolution, with the vote itself being the analogue to the February Revolution, followed by the Hard Brexiters effeectively staging a coup to overthrow any potential compromise. The jury is still out about what happens next, but it is probably not good for the Tories long term. Eventually the country will make some kind of peace with itself, and the extremists will get the kind of treatment that Trump is now facing.

    Be sure your sins will find you out, whether bad taste in decoration or giving Cummings the key to the sweetie shop.
    I used that analogy before the referendum itself to predict that it would lead to Corbyn taking power. It almost happened in 2017.

    I don't think you can characterise what took place subsequently that way.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,973

    ping said:

    Fenman said:

    ping said:
    How very modern. An article about the Red Wall behind a Pay Wall.
    https://www.ft.com/content/e8fb3676-b4df-499c-a289-168dc580891c

    If you wanna knock a brick through the red wall pay wall, copy/paste ^ into google, then click through.

    Alternatively, if you want to help pay Seb’s rent, get an ft sub.

    Personally, I’m a tight bastard.
    Personally, I'm a lazy bastard. And tight!

    If citing a story behind a paywall, I like to include a brief summary of the gist so that others can decide IF they think they need to actually seek it from the horse's mouth (or other end as case may be).
    Summary: Tory Mayor popular, signs are that Tories ahead in Hartlepool and more widely the red wall - though only anedotal, plus a gloomy assessment from a Shadow cabinet minister.
    And a weird statement regarding teesside flights - even at the worst we had 4 flights a day (2 Aberdeen, 2 Amsterdam) not 2 flights a day.

    Should add at the time he's talking I was using the airport weekly
This discussion has been closed.