Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)
In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)
In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
Especialy with the new, er, non-mainstream parties cluttring up the list. Even Mr Galoway's leaflet forgot to say which mainstream party to vote for when demanding my list vote.
Ooh exciting, got a HDR TV yesterday and I just realised this weekend's fixtures include Man Utd v Liverpool, being advertised as available in Ultra HD. Shame pubs haven't reopened inside yet for that fixture, but its a great fixture to have at home as a first in Ultra HD. ⚽⚽⚽ 🍺🍺🍺
Are you entirely confident this will be a thoroughly enjoyable experience for you?
Lol! Or for anyone?? It’s usually a bloody awful match with both teams terrified of losing. I hope for Philip’s sake that this one is different and it graces his new telly!
Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)
In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
I think she already does, given her support for nuke weapons.
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
Pace JVT last night too - expecting a third wave. I think if they wish to say this, they need to say what they define as a wave (small increase in a cases in autumn? More hospitalization? etc) and also why they think it will happen. It seem to me to be a messaging thing, designed to keep us all playing nicely. A few weeks ago the talk was of another 30.000 deaths (on top of the 120,000 at that time). I poo pooed this at the time, and I would say I have been right. I just don't see where the extra deaths will come from now.
There’s been a subtle change in language. The phraseology from JVT is “third upsurge” rather than third wave. But to some degree you are right, much of the rhetoric is designed to hold the public’s feet to the fire as we enter the endgame.
I do think that's true. Some believe we could still cock this up if people act ahead of the milestones and/or there are any further vaccine delays and so are trying to make sure it doesn't happen.
Some resurgence in cases is certainly possible, depending on vaccine rollouts. But cases alone shouldn't really be the concern.
Spent the past two days in Darlington, Stockton and Hartlepool ahead of May 6 elections. Not a single punter expressed concerns about 'cash for curtains'. Typical remarks, as per one Labour voter, "as long as we didn't pay for it, he can decorates his house how he likes."
Exactly what I have been saying, the taxpayer did not pay for the refurbishment so people will not care.
They may not care but that doesn't make your statement true as the taxpayer has paid for the refurbishment up to the maximum allowed, so equal to or more than all previous PMs.
What you lot don't understand is that an independent Scotland's new economy will be based on holding referenda at every opportunity. We will all have cushy jobs on electoral commissions.
How bad would the election results have to be next week for Starmer to consider his position? What if he loses everything important except London, for instance.
He won't, Labour will almost certainly gain county council seats in England given they were 11% behind the Tories last time they were up in 2017.
Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.
Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
The hartlepool by election if labour lose is the only game in town. Everything else is a sideshow.
Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)
In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
I think she already does, given her support for nuke weapons.
I doubt an issue almost irrelevant to this election is moving many votes.
Talking about wallpaper during a once in a 100 year pandemic was never going to work.
Again that may well be true, but it doesn't make it right does it? Or would you argue that it doesn't matter a damn what you do provided you win elections?
Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)
In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
I think she already does, given her support for nuke weapons.
I doubt an issue almost irrelevant to this election is moving many votes.
It is however completely contrary to SLAB policy - a nice case of having your (yellow) cake and eating it.
How bad would the election results have to be next week for Starmer to consider his position? What if he loses everything important except London, for instance.
He won't, Labour will almost certainly gain county council seats in England given they were 11% behind the Tories last time they were up in 2017.
Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.
Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
The hartlepool by election if labour lose is the only game in town. Everything else is a sideshow.
No it is largely irrelevant to the national picture given the BXP got 25% there in 2019 and only 3% nationally.
The council elections and Scottish and Welsh and London polls are far more significant in terms of the national picture
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
I agree. Who do you trust with the economy will be strongly Tory for the next 10 years or so. Labours Corbyn interlude really has set Labour and the electoral change cycle back quite a bit. (Many thanks Nick Palmer)
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
I highly doubt it will be Truss, she is a classical liberal libertarian in a social democratic age with immigration controls on top.
Sunak is the only viable alternative
She is also a republican atheist - a credo far more popular on PB (including with me!) than in the public at large.
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
For the majority however it is always true, the Conservatives have only ever lost the over 65 vote once in my lifetime, in 1997 and Labour have only ever lost the under 25 vote once in my lifetime, in 1983.
As you get older and move from renting to owning a property and settle down with a family you become more conservative
As I see the disadvantages being thrown at my children and, especially now, my grandchildren I become angrier.
Spent the past two days in Darlington, Stockton and Hartlepool ahead of May 6 elections. Not a single punter expressed concerns about 'cash for curtains'. Typical remarks, as per one Labour voter, "as long as we didn't pay for it, he can decorates his house how he likes."
Nicola Sturgeon has backed away from her threat to hold a new independence referendum this year as a new poll showed support for leaving the UK had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months....
"run away"
Hah
This will absolutely ENRAGE the hardcore Yessers
A huge split is coming in Nat-land. Lay Sturgeon
The plan was never to hold the Ref this year. It's no change. What with this and the new "shock" Con polling lead. Slow news day. Guess if there's no real drama happening we have to make some up. Which is fair enough. I shouldn't be such a party pooper.
You don't understand. Of course Sturgeon never intended to hold a vote this year (it's basically impossible because Covid, anyway, leaving aside HMG's blank refusal). She also won't hold one if there's a good chance of losing, as a 2nd NO will finish her, the SNP and the cause.
However she has a militant wing to appease, who still believe she is committed to Sindyref ASAP, so she has to act like she is champing at the bit.
After the election, when it becomes obvious she has no plan or desire to achieve indy other than the same, slow, chip-chip-chip-away of grievance-mongering, the militant wing will turn on her. I reckon
Yes, I knew all that. Not pretending I did - I did. She has a tricky course to plot if she gets a majority and a VERY tricky one to plot if she doesn't. It's no walk in the park for her to lead Scotland to independence from here.
How bad would the election results have to be next week for Starmer to consider his position? What if he loses everything important except London, for instance.
He won't, Labour will almost certainly gain county council seats in England given they were 11% behind the Tories last time they were up in 2017.
Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.
Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
Starmer is rock solid safe as Labour leader. He has the PLP, the membership and the NEC on his side. There is no-one who can challenge him. After a really tough 14 months people are feeling optimistic for themselves and the country. Of course they are going to reward the governing party. People who thought that wallpaper and Cummings would make any difference to the political fundamentals are just a bit clueless.
Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)
In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
It's really easy to measure in some places because the list vote is broken down by constituency.
So for Edinburgh Southern we can see that Labour got 35.5% on the Constituency vote and SCons got 26.1%. Thus beating the SNP on 32.6%.
Yet on the List SCons came in first place with 29.2% of the vote and Labour 3rd with 21.9%
I see Nat West have said they will relocate if Scotland gains "Freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedom"
Tbf, I think they might do it either way and renominate their HQ to their Bishopsgate base and dump the last vestiges of of the RBS buyout and subsequent failure.
Doing that would mean dropping the printing of RBS bank notes - which would be a very political (and business) sensitive decision.
Mind you if personal banking runs at a loss and you wanted to start closing it down it would be an ideal way of doing so.
Wouldn't you just spin RBS into an entity which stays in Scotland while the rest of the company stays with NatWest Group in London. Effectively reversing the RBS takeover of NatWest so that NatWest becomes the owner of RBS which keeps the banknote printing licence in Edinburgh.
They wouldn't be able to print Sterling banknotes anyway, and I don't think that the EU would want banknotes bearing that name.
The whole economic side of independence is in my view almost impossible to navigate. At least for the time being. (Of course there may be wise Scottish heads that have a viable plan, but it seems unlikely to me)
Their wisest heads talk about using the £ - unfortunately without the wisdom to understand that really dose not make them independent at all.
Not many wise heads on here, full of numpties. Short term it would be no issue and any fool knows it will be own currency after that, as per every other country in the world. There would have to be a phased changeover of some sort and for sure Scotland will not be childish and will still accept English notes.
I see Nat West have said they will relocate if Scotland gains "Freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedom"
Tbf, I think they might do it either way and renominate their HQ to their Bishopsgate base and dump the last vestiges of of the RBS buyout and subsequent failure.
Doing that would mean dropping the printing of RBS bank notes - which would be a very political (and business) sensitive decision.
Mind you if personal banking runs at a loss and you wanted to start closing it down it would be an ideal way of doing so.
Wouldn't you just spin RBS into an entity which stays in Scotland while the rest of the company stays with NatWest Group in London. Effectively reversing the RBS takeover of NatWest so that NatWest becomes the owner of RBS which keeps the banknote printing licence in Edinburgh.
They wouldn't be able to print Sterling banknotes anyway, and I don't think that the EU would want banknotes bearing that name.
The whole economic side of independence is in my view almost impossible to navigate. At least for the time being. (Of course there may be wise Scottish heads that have a viable plan, but it seems unlikely to me)
Their wisest heads talk about using the £ - unfortunately without the wisdom to understand that really dose not make them independent at all.
Not many wise heads on here, full of numpties. Short term it would be no issue and any fool knows it will be own currency after that, as per every other country in the world. There would have to be a phased changeover of some sort and for sure Scotland will not be childish and will still accept English notes.
I fear for your sanity when Sturgeon asks for a vote, Boris says no, and then... nothing happens. Will you march on Bute House?
Sturgeon is not interested in independence, she bumps her gums but is interested in herself. She will not last much longer, the chickens are coming home to roost.
This is a bit like those Lefties who contantly claim that only the keepers of the true Socialist flame have any right to govern from the left. Truth is that the SNP is all you´ve got and if they fail, then that is the end of Indy, not just for now, but forever. What Alba is doing is unleashing the inner Judean Peoples Front of the Nationalist movement. Right now Scotland is split 50-50 about Indy as it is. As the Nats start tearing chunks off each other as to who is the true keeper of the nationalist flame, support for Indy itself is falling. Sturgeon won´t be pushed out because she is insufficiently nationalist, she will go because the supporters of separatism start a civil war amongst themselves. So you and Wings and the various other enemies of Sturgeon are totally wrong headed if you think removing her will help your cause. In fact I judge that she is the only one who can now deliver a separate Scotland and the numbers are not breaking her or your way. Across Scotland we are hearing that on the ground the Nat vote is soft. The Tories are down too of course so there is a deal of uncertainty, but Salmond´s party is just reminding a lot of folk what they most dislike about the Nats in general and that is not helping the SNP either.
Sturgeon is not interested in Independence, Scotland is not interested in London Tory, labour and Lib Dem parties. ALBA have more members already than Lib Dems who are an irrelevance completely in Scotland , they will be lucky to be 5th party this time. The direction is all one way , it is only a matter of time till independence for sure and it will be a long long long time till SNP are not in power, likely after independence before that happens.
Malc, Are you listening to the scores on the doors? I guess we will see next weekend, but I reckon you are in for a very nasty surprise if you really beleive any of that.
Hard to see any London party getting anywhere near power in the forseeable. It will be list seats for the unionists , if it was not a rigged system they would have a handful between them for sure. Crap as the SNP are there is no appetite in Scotland for the London parties. Sarwar missed his chance by not supporting Independence referendum this time.
Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect
Talking about wallpaper during a once in a 100 year pandemic was never going to work.
Again that may well be true, but it doesn't make it right does it? Or would you argue that it doesn't matter a damn what you do provided you win elections?
Doesn't make what right? Boris paid for the refurbishment of the flat saving the taxpayer money, I think that is a good thing
I see Nat West have said they will relocate if Scotland gains "Freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedom"
Tbf, I think they might do it either way and renominate their HQ to their Bishopsgate base and dump the last vestiges of of the RBS buyout and subsequent failure.
Doing that would mean dropping the printing of RBS bank notes - which would be a very political (and business) sensitive decision.
Mind you if personal banking runs at a loss and you wanted to start closing it down it would be an ideal way of doing so.
Wouldn't you just spin RBS into an entity which stays in Scotland while the rest of the company stays with NatWest Group in London. Effectively reversing the RBS takeover of NatWest so that NatWest becomes the owner of RBS which keeps the banknote printing licence in Edinburgh.
They wouldn't be able to print Sterling banknotes anyway, and I don't think that the EU would want banknotes bearing that name.
The whole economic side of independence is in my view almost impossible to navigate. At least for the time being. (Of course there may be wise Scottish heads that have a viable plan, but it seems unlikely to me)
Their wisest heads talk about using the £ - unfortunately without the wisdom to understand that really dose not make them independent at all.
Not many wise heads on here, full of numpties. Short term it would be no issue and any fool knows it will be own currency after that, as per every other country in the world. There would have to be a phased changeover of some sort and for sure Scotland will not be childish and will still accept English notes.
I see Nat West have said they will relocate if Scotland gains "Freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedom"
Tbf, I think they might do it either way and renominate their HQ to their Bishopsgate base and dump the last vestiges of of the RBS buyout and subsequent failure.
Doing that would mean dropping the printing of RBS bank notes - which would be a very political (and business) sensitive decision.
Mind you if personal banking runs at a loss and you wanted to start closing it down it would be an ideal way of doing so.
Wouldn't you just spin RBS into an entity which stays in Scotland while the rest of the company stays with NatWest Group in London. Effectively reversing the RBS takeover of NatWest so that NatWest becomes the owner of RBS which keeps the banknote printing licence in Edinburgh.
They wouldn't be able to print Sterling banknotes anyway, and I don't think that the EU would want banknotes bearing that name.
The whole economic side of independence is in my view almost impossible to navigate. At least for the time being. (Of course there may be wise Scottish heads that have a viable plan, but it seems unlikely to me)
Their wisest heads talk about using the £ - unfortunately without the wisdom to understand that really dose not make them independent at all.
Not many wise heads on here, full of numpties. Short term it would be no issue and any fool knows it will be own currency after that, as per every other country in the world. There would have to be a phased changeover of some sort and for sure Scotland will not be childish and will still accept English notes.
I fear for your sanity when Sturgeon asks for a vote, Boris says no, and then... nothing happens. Will you march on Bute House?
Sturgeon is not interested in independence, she bumps her gums but is interested in herself. She will not last much longer, the chickens are coming home to roost.
This is a bit like those Lefties who contantly claim that only the keepers of the true Socialist flame have any right to govern from the left. Truth is that the SNP is all you´ve got and if they fail, then that is the end of Indy, not just for now, but forever. What Alba is doing is unleashing the inner Judean Peoples Front of the Nationalist movement. Right now Scotland is split 50-50 about Indy as it is. As the Nats start tearing chunks off each other as to who is the true keeper of the nationalist flame, support for Indy itself is falling. Sturgeon won´t be pushed out because she is insufficiently nationalist, she will go because the supporters of separatism start a civil war amongst themselves. So you and Wings and the various other enemies of Sturgeon are totally wrong headed if you think removing her will help your cause. In fact I judge that she is the only one who can now deliver a separate Scotland and the numbers are not breaking her or your way. Across Scotland we are hearing that on the ground the Nat vote is soft. The Tories are down too of course so there is a deal of uncertainty, but Salmond´s party is just reminding a lot of folk what they most dislike about the Nats in general and that is not helping the SNP either.
Sturgeon is not interested in Independence, Scotland is not interested in London Tory, labour and Lib Dem parties. ALBA have more members already than Lib Dems who are an irrelevance completely in Scotland , they will be lucky to be 5th party this time. The direction is all one way , it is only a matter of time till independence for sure and it will be a long long long time till SNP are not in power, likely after independence before that happens.
Malc, Are you listening to the scores on the doors? I guess we will see next weekend, but I reckon you are in for a very nasty surprise if you really beleive any of that.
Hard to see any London party getting anywhere near power in the forseeable. It will be list seats for the unionists , if it was not a rigged system they would have a handful between them for sure. Crap as the SNP are there is no appetite in Scotland for the London parties. Sarwar missed his chance by not supporting Independence referendum this time.
Really - Much to the annoyance in my popcorn factory shares Independence is not going to occur.
Talking about wallpaper during a once in a 100 year pandemic was never going to work.
Again that may well be true, but it doesn't make it right does it? Or would you argue that it doesn't matter a damn what you do provided you win elections?
Doesn't make what right? Boris paid for the refurbishment of the flat saving the taxpayer money, I think that is a good thing
He didn't save the taxpayer money, as Johnson maxed out the allowance.
How much did it cost the taxpayer in sweetheart deals for Johnsons donor chums?
How bad would the election results have to be next week for Starmer to consider his position? What if he loses everything important except London, for instance.
He won't, Labour will almost certainly gain county council seats in England given they were 11% behind the Tories last time they were up in 2017.
Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.
Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
The hartlepool by election if labour lose is the only game in town. Everything else is a sideshow.
No it is largely irrelevant to the national picture given the BXP got 25% there in 2019 and only 3% nationally.
The council elections and Scottish and Welsh and London polls are far more significant in terms of the national picture
I'm talking about media coverage, social and traditional. If people cared about councils, crime commissioners and elected mayors (outside of london) they would vote for them in anything other than derisory numbers.
A leader of the opposition losing a byelection in a seat they held will be a political earthquake. Last time it happened it caused a Prime Minister to call a general election only two years in to a five year term. That didnt end well of course...
Talking about wallpaper during a once in a 100 year pandemic was never going to work.
Again that may well be true, but it doesn't make it right does it? Or would you argue that it doesn't matter a damn what you do provided you win elections?
Doesn't make what right? Boris paid for the refurbishment of the flat saving the taxpayer money, I think that is a good thing
Firstly he hasn't saved the taxpayer a penny. He has used all the allowance so has spent as much or much more than all other PMs.
Secondly he tried to get the significant excess paid for by donors, when that hasn't worked it appears he has taken a loan from a donor!. He hasn't admitted to this but repeatedly refuses to deny it when asked directly whether he took a loan by saying he has paid for it out of his own pocket ignoring the actual question. It appears having been found out about taking a loan, he has now repaid it. There is a reason why these actions are either illegal or require a declaration because they are a conflict of interest or break donation rules.
Do you not ask yourself why he doesn't answer the question about whether he took a loan directly? if there is no issue why doesn't he say 'Yes' if he did or 'No' if he didn't. Why has he deliberately avoided answering that question for weeks?
The fact that he refuses to answer a very simple question says a huge amount and it isn't 'there is nothing to see here'.
Nicola Sturgeon has backed away from her threat to hold a new independence referendum this year as a new poll showed support for leaving the UK had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months....
"run away"
Hah
This will absolutely ENRAGE the hardcore Yessers
A huge split is coming in Nat-land. Lay Sturgeon
Oh God, the Nat-splainers have logged on.
Is Sturgeon still around? I had read innumerable posts on here stating that she was absolute toast after the recent Salmond enquiry goings on.
I really feel for these people, but unless I’m missing something, or the government is playing silly buggers, the total cost for <18m is capped at £50 per flat, per month, indefinitely.
Which sucks, especially as their flat prices will also have taken a hit. But doesn’t seem to me to be hugely unfair.
Talking about wallpaper during a once in a 100 year pandemic was never going to work.
Again that may well be true, but it doesn't make it right does it? Or would you argue that it doesn't matter a damn what you do provided you win elections?
Doesn't make what right? Boris paid for the refurbishment of the flat saving the taxpayer money, I think that is a good thing
Firstly he hasn't saved the taxpayer a penny. He has used all the allowance so has spent as much or much more than all other PMs.
Secondly he tried to get the significant excess paid for by donors, when that hasn't worked it appears he has taken a loan from a donor!. He hasn't admitted to this but repeatedly refuses to deny it when asked directly whether he took a loan by saying he has paid for it out of his own pocket ignoring the actual question. It appears having been found out about taking a loan, he has now repaid it. There is a reason why these actions are either illegal or require a declaration because they are a conflict of interest or break donation rules.
Do you not ask yourself why he doesn't answer the question about whether he took a loan directly? if there is no issue why doesn't he say 'Yes' if he did or 'No' if he didn't. Why has he deliberately avoided answering that question for weeks?
The fact that he refuses to answer a very simple question says a huge amount and it isn't 'there is nothing to see here'.
+1
Excellent summary. Cash for Curtains isn’t going away without some straight answers.
Obviously, if Putin originally gave or lent him the money for the gold wallpaper, we would all be concerned. If it were his eccentric father, we wouldn’t be concerned. We are somewhere on the sliding scale between the two, and it is peculiar that the clown didn’t come clean from the outset. He must know it will come out sooner or later.
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
For the majority however it is always true, the Conservatives have only ever lost the over 65 vote once in my lifetime, in 1997 and Labour have only ever lost the under 25 vote once in my lifetime, in 1983.
As you get older and move from renting to owning a property and settle down with a family you become more conservative
As I see the disadvantages being thrown at my children and, especially now, my grandchildren I become angrier.
Likewise, any discontent I feel towards my own situation is offset by seeing my parents fairly comfortable. It works both ways. But that's perhaps a function of being an only child. [Actually, personally I have absolutely nothing to complain about apart from not being quite as fortunate as the generation above.]
Actually, both OKC and HYUFD are on to something here. Young people become gradually more Conservative as they age, but - perhaps - it's not a natural part of ageing; it reflects that as they grow older, they get a bigger stake in society and stand to lose more by radical change. But this process of conservatification can only work if the young are allowed to get a stake in society - a home, a secure job, a family. At the moment, as a society, we are offering our younger generations very little of this. (And obviously it's not the job of the state to offer its young people a family, but it certainly is in its interests to offer them the environment in which they might raise one.) Previous generations of Tories certainly realised this. Does this one? (Note: I certainly don't hold this particular incarnation of Tories responsible for where we are now, yet. The blame lies with the 1997-2016 generation. The current lot will only be to blame for where we are in a decade or so.)
Comments
Especialy with the new, er, non-mainstream parties cluttring up the list. Even Mr Galoway's leaflet forgot to say which mainstream party to vote for when demanding my list vote.
Some resurgence in cases is certainly possible, depending on vaccine rollouts. But cases alone shouldn't really be the concern.
The council elections and Scottish and Welsh and London polls are far more significant in terms of the national picture
The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html
The general consensus is "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."
So for Edinburgh Southern we can see that Labour got 35.5% on the Constituency vote and SCons got 26.1%. Thus beating the SNP on 32.6%.
Yet on the List SCons came in first place with 29.2% of the vote and Labour 3rd with 21.9%
Hope it didn't mean something appalling such as "lol - people don't care about corruption".
Sarwar missed his chance by not supporting Independence referendum this time.
Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506
Anyway, the Romans already had an idiom that could be applied to that idea: pecunia non olet.
How much did it cost the taxpayer in sweetheart deals for Johnsons donor chums?
A leader of the opposition losing a byelection in a seat they held will be a political earthquake. Last time it happened it caused a Prime Minister to call a general election only two years in to a five year term. That didnt end well of course...
Secondly he tried to get the significant excess paid for by donors, when that hasn't worked it appears he has taken a loan from a donor!. He hasn't admitted to this but repeatedly refuses to deny it when asked directly whether he took a loan by saying he has paid for it out of his own pocket ignoring the actual question. It appears having been found out about taking a loan, he has now repaid it. There is a reason why these actions are either illegal or require a declaration because they are a conflict of interest or break donation rules.
Do you not ask yourself why he doesn't answer the question about whether he took a loan directly? if there is no issue why doesn't he say 'Yes' if he did or 'No' if he didn't. Why has he deliberately avoided answering that question for weeks?
The fact that he refuses to answer a very simple question says a huge amount and it isn't 'there is nothing to see here'.
Is Sturgeon still around? I had read innumerable posts on here stating that she was absolute toast after the recent Salmond enquiry goings on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-39880463
It even resulted in Labour getting a £20k fine from the electoral commission.
I really feel for these people, but unless I’m missing something, or the government is playing silly buggers, the total cost for <18m is capped at £50 per flat, per month, indefinitely.
Which sucks, especially as their flat prices will also have taken a hit. But doesn’t seem to me to be hugely unfair.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but there is zero movement in SNP share in Scotland sub-sample from last week. Only movement is LibDem>Labour
Unless you are being deliberately ironic - I sometimes can't tell.
Excellent summary. Cash for Curtains isn’t going away without some straight answers.
Obviously, if Putin originally gave or lent him the money for the gold wallpaper, we would all be concerned. If it were his eccentric father, we wouldn’t be concerned. We are somewhere on the sliding scale between the two, and it is peculiar that the clown didn’t come clean from the outset. He must know it will come out sooner or later.
Actually, both OKC and HYUFD are on to something here. Young people become gradually more Conservative as they age, but - perhaps - it's not a natural part of ageing; it reflects that as they grow older, they get a bigger stake in society and stand to lose more by radical change.
But this process of conservatification can only work if the young are allowed to get a stake in society - a home, a secure job, a family. At the moment, as a society, we are offering our younger generations very little of this. (And obviously it's not the job of the state to offer its young people a family, but it certainly is in its interests to offer them the environment in which they might raise one.)
Previous generations of Tories certainly realised this. Does this one?
(Note: I certainly don't hold this particular incarnation of Tories responsible for where we are now, yet. The blame lies with the 1997-2016 generation. The current lot will only be to blame for where we are in a decade or so.)