On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
He's saying he expects Labour to win it. I'm the one calling it for the Cons.
Hope I'm wrong of course (betting and blog kudos aside) but 'new punditry' has this as a Tory seat under our 'new politics'. They'd have likely won it at the GE were it not for the big BXP vote. That was not long ago and since then? - Brexit delivered and the vaccines beating the pandemic, no room for Labour to speak, and (your point) pork barrel promised. Starmer will be on the end of some attacks but imo will ride it out. And if Labour win he'll get a boost. For me it's too early to judge him or Labour's longer term GE prospects. Let;'s see how it looks in a years time.
Your 'helicopter' view in last para of where it's all going? Bleak but possible.
Some people may say, but that is too long ago to be playing out now - but Blair’s conference speeches talked up how brilliant Globalisation is for the UK.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
This latest Scottish poll, if held under NZ’s PR system would deliver:
SNP 50 Con 31 Lab 27 Grn 14 LDm 7
SNP/Grn 1 seat shy of a majority.
Possible govt combinations:
SNP/Lab SNP/Grn/LDm
I’m curious, but what is the relevance of putting the Scottish polls through the NZ system? It’s like me saying that under the Egyptian Ptolemaic regime Salmond and and Sturgeon should get married and be Co-rulers,
I thought the same - maybe he's from there?
Historically but in Europe for many years. Still odd though!
I do quite like this suggestion in reply, from a random on Twitter: "Starmer has an image problem. He’s seen as weak and wimpy and that won’t do. Here’s my solution: metal umlauts. Farewell Keir Starmer of Labour, hello Këir Stärmer of Laböur. It’s a winner." link: https://twitter.com/ScanlanWithAnA/status/1387115328140873729
I do quite like this suggestion in reply, from a random on Twitter: "Starmer has an image problem. He’s seen as weak and wimpy and that won’t do. Here’s my solution: metal umlauts. Farewell Keir Starmer of Labour, hello Këir Stärmer of Laböur. It’s a winner." link: https://twitter.com/ScanlanWithAnA/status/1387115328140873729
"Added to which with costs running at a £1m by the time it goes to trial , she will end up losing her flat and savings when all she has to do is apologise say she got it wrong and pay costs. Sad."
So with costs already at the level where she goes bankrupt if she loses she may as well go all in.
I have to say I am very uncomfortable with journalists being personally sued for libel rather than their publications.
I am in general but Cadwalladr seems to have a personal vendetta
In her case in particular she seems to have told outright lies, or at best has ZERO evidence for any of her slurs. I really don't understand her problem with conceding this, apologising and paying the costs. Does she believe that she is right, even with the absence of any evidence? I fully support Banks in this case. It should not be allowable to make such damaging claims without any evidence, and she should either apologize or bring forward her evidence (which of course she can't, and has admitted as such).
I see Nat West have said they will relocate if Scotland gains "Freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedom"
Tbf, I think they might do it either way and renominate their HQ to their Bishopsgate base and dump the last vestiges of of the RBS buyout and subsequent failure.
Doing that would mean dropping the printing of RBS bank notes - which would be a very political (and business) sensitive decision.
Mind you if personal banking runs at a loss and you wanted to start closing it down it would be an ideal way of doing so.
Wouldn't you just spin RBS into an entity which stays in Scotland while the rest of the company stays with NatWest Group in London. Effectively reversing the RBS takeover of NatWest so that NatWest becomes the owner of RBS which keeps the banknote printing licence in Edinburgh.
They wouldn't be able to print Sterling banknotes anyway, and I don't think that the EU would want banknotes bearing that name.
The whole economic side of independence is in my view almost impossible to navigate. At least for the time being. (Of course there may be wise Scottish heads that have a viable plan, but it seems unlikely to me)
Their wisest heads talk about using the £ - unfortunately without the wisdom to understand that really dose not make them independent at all.
Not many wise heads on here, full of numpties. Short term it would be no issue and any fool knows it will be own currency after that, as per every other country in the world. There would have to be a phased changeover of some sort and for sure Scotland will not be childish and will still accept English notes.
It’s no issue if you’re willing to radically reduce the size of Scotland’s deficit.
I see no evidence you’re willing to accept any trade-offs of Independence; which basically puts you on a par with...Brexiters.
“Brexiters” - 283,000 Google hits
“Brexiteers” - 837,000 Google hits
The BrexitEERS won the lexical war, as well
I favoured Brexitards, but I was warned off I think by the PB Mods.
Brexshitters was my favourite example of Remoaner lexicological madness. Used in newspapers by ‘serious’ journalists
Brexiteers is the term that will survive. Because it sounds cooler, is easier to say, and has that poetic hint of ‘buccaneers’, ‘grenadiers’, ‘chandeliers’
"Added to which with costs running at a £1m by the time it goes to trial , she will end up losing her flat and savings when all she has to do is apologise say she got it wrong and pay costs. Sad."
So with costs already at the level where she goes bankrupt if she loses she may as well go all in.
I have to say I am very uncomfortable with journalists being personally sued for libel rather than their publications.
I am in general but Cadwalladr seems to have a personal vendetta
Did she say it in the guardian or on Twitter. I was under the impression the comments made were on social media.
NEW. SNP Foreign Aff @AlynSmith tells me on an independent #Scotland joining the EURO
“We would want to participate an economic & monetary union for the macroeconomic stability. The adoption of the € should be put to the people in a REFERENDUM”.
It’s also saying: Vote SNP for ten more years of chaos, instability and endless divisive referendums
I’m not sure if that’s a good pitch to voters, who are looking to the end of an historic plague, and who just want a pint and a quieter life
It also pushes people who voted Yes and Leave away completely which is a key demographic for independence, people like Malc who want a proper independent Scotland not controlled by Westminster or Brussels.
NEW. SNP Foreign Aff @AlynSmith tells me on an independent #Scotland joining the EURO
“We would want to participate an economic & monetary union for the macroeconomic stability. The adoption of the € should be put to the people in a REFERENDUM”.
It’s also saying: Vote SNP for ten more years of chaos, instability and endless divisive referendums
I’m not sure if that’s a good pitch to voters, who are looking to the end of an historic plague, and who just want a pint and a quieter life
It also pushes people who voted Yes and Leave away completely which is a key demographic for independence, people like Malc who want a proper independent Scotland not controlled by Westminster or Brussels.
Yes. It’s a major fault-line now being exposed. Ironic, seeing as the SNP would have blithely taken Scotland out of the EU with a Yes vote in 2014
Since then their policy (sensibly) has been: blur the issue and avoid the question. This feels like an error. We shall see
If Starmer and the media have misjudged the people on this it could be an Edstone moment
It's kind of funny, but I'm not convinced that it doesn't also make Starmer look a bit of a tit. Better for the Labour Twitter account to just feature some top picks of wallpaper from JL or to engineer a visit for Starmer to JL to talk about some serious issues - future of bricks and mortar retail for example. It's funny for those of us who are against Johnson and following wallpaper-gate, but I imagine the man/woman in the street was rather he was doing something useful, listening to them etc.
@tompeckConfess I hadn’t read this in full til now. What a mess. Just imagine the atmosphere in that flat right now, actually having to live among the gold wallpaper that is bringing you down. Boris Johnson has become his own Greek myth.
If so, it would be the most boring Greek myth ever, focussing mainly on scatter cushions
My eyes glazed over as I read it. So dull. I know Remoaners like you and Tom Peck are desperate for some belated revenge on Boris, but I’d be amazed if this is it. Sturgeon survived an alleged conspiracy to jail and ruin a rival on fake rape charges, Boris will survive a confected brouhaha about decor
His reckoning will come, however. When the economy slides
The economies slide has already occurred. We're about to enter the bounceback not the slide.
Slides tend to come about once every 8-12 years. Next slide quite plausibly could be around the time of the 2033 election.
@tompeckConfess I hadn’t read this in full til now. What a mess. Just imagine the atmosphere in that flat right now, actually having to live among the gold wallpaper that is bringing you down. Boris Johnson has become his own Greek myth.
If so, it would be the most boring Greek myth ever, focussing mainly on scatter cushions
My eyes glazed over as I read it. So dull. I know Remoaners like you and Tom Peck are desperate for some belated revenge on Boris, but I’d be amazed if this is it. Sturgeon survived an alleged conspiracy to jail and ruin a rival on fake rape charges, Boris will survive a confected brouhaha about decor
His reckoning will come, however. When the economy slides
The economies slide has already occurred. We're about to enter the bounceback not the slide.
Slides tend to come about once every 8-12 years. Next slide quite plausibly could be around the time of the 2033 election.
The general assumption that people are making is that the economic slide will soon be reversed, so government spending cuts and tax rises can be kept manageable.
Also, there is an assumption that social distancing measures, such as working from home and wearing masks, will continue for the forseeable future. These assumptions, which are widely held, cannot both be correct.
I think that it is too early to say that the economic contraction is over.
Social distancing ends 21 June.
If social distancing is still in place 22 June I would support letters being sent to Graham Brady.
Compulsory distancing driven by government ends on 21st June. After that it will be discretionary, and is bound to continue to an extent and in certain ways for quite a while.
Nah, people have in their heads 21 June, they have had it for months. Its set now and any government that attempts to drag that out now would be committing Seppuku.
People will keep calm and carry on until 21 June but then it is OVER. Some people will want to drag it out, but for the overwhelming majority of people the second its no longer required that will be it. No ifs, no buts, no messing around.
Its worth remembering very few people were wearing masks until they were made compulsory. The second its no longer compulsory the overwhelming majority of people will stop doing it - and almost no business will demand it because they'd be stupid to do so.
Odd to kick off with "Nah" and then agree with the post you're replying to. Is it because it's me?
Yes, compulsory distancing is indeed over on 21 June and the government will indeed not be attempting to drag it out. As to how many people will still, despite the lack of compulsion, wish to continue with stuff like masks in crowded spaces and keeping 2m away from others whilst out and about, this remains to be seen. I'm happy with how I put it - such practices will continue to an extent.
There, you've made me say everything twice. Well done.
I said "Nah" in response to "bound to continue to an extent and in certain ways for quite a while."
Its not bound to continue, people will rapidly put it behind us. People will keep calm and carry on until 21 June (begrudgingly in my case) but after that it is over.
Some weirdos may continue to wear a mask, but next-to-zero businesses will demand one and next-to-zero businesses will voluntarily require social distancing if its not legally required.
Such practices will die a death. Rapidly. Deservedly.
Of course some people will continue with certain aspects (eg masks in crowded spaces). Why on earth dispute something that's undeniably true?
Nigelb, for example, has said he possibly will. Ditto Nick Palmer, I bet. Plus a few others on here. Also some people I know in flesh & blood have said they intend to. These folk are not "weirdos". Don't be so ridiculous. You're projecting your own attitude onto everyone else.
I seem to bring out the worst out in you, Philip. You come out with an enormous amount of crap when talking to me. Your usual quotient is about 40% but it's at least double that when yours truly is your conversational partner. Ah well. I'm used to it.
Some people will and they will be the weird exceptions, just like in the past when you'd see eg Japanese shoppers in the Trafford centre wearing a mask. It just looks weird, but it always happened and you'll continue to get it with some weirdos going forwards. And I stand by the term, people voluntarily doing it when its not required or mandated will be very much the exception not the norm.
But more important than whether a few weirdos do stuff that doesn't affect anyone else, is whether businesses demand it. I couldn't care less if individuals want to wear a mask when they're not required to, I couldn't care less about other people's fashion choices. But if businesses are still demanding it that's a different matter, that's where its continuing, and if its not required by law there'll be little incentive for businesses to mandate it.
"Weirdos" is a silly - and tbh a rather crass and offensive - term to apply to what will almost certainly be the non-trivial minority of people who will be sufficiently risk-averse (having lived through this harrowing public health crisis which has lasted so long and wreaked such havoc) to continue on a voluntary basis with certain virus mitigation practices (eg masks in crowded spaces) after the legal compulsion to do so has been dropped. These people shoud not be viewed or described as weirdos. I trust we will not see it from you again in this context.
But I sense you know you've been a bit "argue for argues sake" on this point and are seeking to focus on what businesses will do. Ok. That is an interesting and important question. Will many businesses (in order to make their clientele feel ultra safe and increase turnover) impose covid restrictions even though they don't have to? I think no. I'm sure there will be pockets of it, and maybe in certain situations it might make commercial sense, but by and large - no. Post 22 June will usher in a new normal that for most things will resemble the old normal.
What about in the public sector?
Re wierdos, agree that this is not helpful. But if people continue to drag their heels in helping get us out of this awfulness by continuing on a voluntary basis with certain virus mitigation practices then they are part of the problem. Logic and science please, not irrational maths-illiterate fear.
I suppose public sector might be slower dropping all the restrictions. Not sure. Hopefully not. Re continuing mitigation behaviours, I think most of it will be sensible stuff, (eg) continuing to pop a mask on in a crowded indoor space, say a packed tube or bus. Or not shoving your face right next to somebody else's over the broccoli counter at Tescos. This sort of thing. This, for me, is not pulling us back into the mire, it's just the expected heightened risk awareness that tbh if it didn't happen would be surprising. I might myself choose to go back to exactly how I was (not 100% sure yet) but I don't view others not doing so as a problem or as a negative trait in them. Indeed it might lead to less colds and flu etc.
Hugging/kissing when we meet friends/family outside of household - I haven't hugged or kissed anyone outside my household for months. That'll take a while I think, with a slightly awkward do we/don't we phase before it all gets back to normal.
Of course, for many Brits, "a slightly awkward do we/don't we" moment is back to normal
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
The total elimination brigade are still lurking around though, whispering in the ears of ministers.
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
The total elimination brigade are still lurking around though, whispering in the ears of ministers.
Thankfully though those Zero Covidiots are being laughed at by Vallance and Whitty.
Zero Covid is never going to work, its a laughable suggestion. Vaccinations work, that's all we need, then time to get back to normal. Not "new normal", just normal.
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
It's baffling, and slightly worrying, that they are not doing so. If I was professionally associated with some predictions which I could see were going to be massively wrong - and could see that the reason they were going to be massively wrong was that the initial assumptions were far too negative - I would be arse-covering with every ounce of energy I can muster; ensuring it was widely known that the initial assumptions were wrong and producing updated figures. It would be potentially professionally damaging not to do so.
Ooh exciting, got a HDR TV yesterday and I just realised this weekend's fixtures include Man Utd v Liverpool, being advertised as available in Ultra HD. Shame pubs haven't reopened inside yet for that fixture, but its a great fixture to have at home as a first in Ultra HD. ⚽⚽⚽ 🍺🍺🍺
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
Pace JVT last night too - expecting a third wave. I think if they wish to say this, they need to say what they define as a wave (small increase in a cases in autumn? More hospitalization? etc) and also why they think it will happen. It seem to me to be a messaging thing, designed to keep us all playing nicely. A few weeks ago the talk was of another 30.000 deaths (on top of the 120,000 at that time). I poo pooed this at the time, and I would say I have been right. I just don't see where the extra deaths will come from now.
If Starmer and the media have misjudged the people on this it could be an Edstone moment
It's kind of funny, but I'm not convinced that it doesn't also make Starmer look a bit of a tit. Better for the Labour Twitter account to just feature some top picks of wallpaper from JL or to engineer a visit for Starmer to JL to talk about some serious issues - future of bricks and mortar retail for example. It's funny for those of us who are against Johnson and following wallpaper-gate, but I imagine the man/woman in the street was rather he was doing something useful, listening to them etc.
It shows Starmer has a previously well hidden sense of humour. Although it's probably his minders, sadly.
If Starmer and the media have misjudged the people on this it could be an Edstone moment
It's kind of funny, but I'm not convinced that it doesn't also make Starmer look a bit of a tit. Better for the Labour Twitter account to just feature some top picks of wallpaper from JL or to engineer a visit for Starmer to JL to talk about some serious issues - future of bricks and mortar retail for example. It's funny for those of us who are against Johnson and following wallpaper-gate, but I imagine the man/woman in the street was rather he was doing something useful, listening to them etc.
It shows Starmer has a previously well hidden sense of humour. Although it's probably his minders, sadly.
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
All about the net effect across the population I guess. Certainly both my parents, and their siblings, are trending right
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
For the majority however it is always true, the Conservatives have only ever lost the over 65 vote once in my lifetime, in 1997 and Labour have only ever lost the under 25 vote once in my lifetime, in 1983.
As you get older and move from renting to owning a property and settle down with a family you become more conservative
Ooh exciting, got a HDR TV yesterday and I just realised this weekend's fixtures include Man Utd v Liverpool, being advertised as available in Ultra HD. Shame pubs haven't reopened inside yet for that fixture, but its a great fixture to have at home as a first in Ultra HD. ⚽⚽⚽ 🍺🍺🍺
Are you entirely confident this will be a thoroughly enjoyable experience for you?
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
Ooh exciting, got a HDR TV yesterday and I just realised this weekend's fixtures include Man Utd v Liverpool, being advertised as available in Ultra HD. Shame pubs haven't reopened inside yet for that fixture, but its a great fixture to have at home as a first in Ultra HD. ⚽⚽⚽ 🍺🍺🍺
How bad would the election results have to be next week for Starmer to consider his position? What if he loses everything important except London, for instance.
"Added to which with costs running at a £1m by the time it goes to trial , she will end up losing her flat and savings when all she has to do is apologise say she got it wrong and pay costs. Sad."
So with costs already at the level where she goes bankrupt if she loses she may as well go all in.
I have to say I am very uncomfortable with journalists being personally sued for libel rather than their publications.
I am in general but Cadwalladr seems to have a personal vendetta
In her case in particular she seems to have told outright lies, or at best has ZERO evidence for any of her slurs. I really don't understand her problem with conceding this, apologising and paying the costs. Does she believe that she is right, even with the absence of any evidence? I fully support Banks in this case. It should not be allowable to make such damaging claims without any evidence, and she should either apologize or bring forward her evidence (which of course she can't, and has admitted as such).
I'm absolutely not pro Banks - the guy is a complete tool. But Cadwalladr has lost all reason as have those who are supporting her. There is no integrity in making stuff up about an unpleasant person. Journalism should be about constructing a story from the facts you can find, not having a narrative and making up things to suit
Nicola Sturgeon has backed away from her threat to hold a new independence referendum this year as a new poll showed support for leaving the UK had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months....
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
I haven't. The opposite in fact.
I have definitely become more centrist. I think it must be reading some of the embarrassing nonsense written on here by people claiming to be Conservative may have contributed to that trend.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
I agree. Who do you trust with the economy will be strongly Tory for the next 10 years or so. Labours Corbyn interlude really has set Labour and the electoral change cycle back quite a bit. (Many thanks Nick Palmer)
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
How bad would the election results have to be next week for Starmer to consider his position? What if he loses everything important except London, for instance.
He won't, Labour will almost certainly gain county council seats in England given they were 11% behind the Tories last time they were up in 2017.
Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.
Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
He's saying he expects Labour to win it. I'm the one calling it for the Cons.
Hope I'm wrong of course (betting and blog kudos aside) but 'new punditry' has this as a Tory seat under our 'new politics'. They'd have likely won it at the GE were it not for the big BXP vote. That was not long ago and since then? - Brexit delivered and the vaccines beating the pandemic, no room for Labour to speak, and (your point) pork barrel promised. Starmer will be on the end of some attacks but imo will ride it out. And if Labour win he'll get a boost. For me it's too early to judge him or Labour's longer term GE prospects. Let;'s see how it looks in a years time.
Your 'helicopter' view in last para of where it's all going? Bleak but possible.
Some people may say, but that is too long ago to be playing out now - but Blair’s conference speeches talked up how brilliant Globalisation is for the UK.
Yes, the kickback against globalization has so far benefited the populist right. They have managed to turn poor people's anger against other poor (and often poorer) people and against educated metropolitans. The financial elites who bankroll these movements are happy as larry with this situation.
Nicola Sturgeon has backed away from her threat to hold a new independence referendum this year as a new poll showed support for leaving the UK had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months....
Ooh exciting, got a HDR TV yesterday and I just realised this weekend's fixtures include Man Utd v Liverpool, being advertised as available in Ultra HD. Shame pubs haven't reopened inside yet for that fixture, but its a great fixture to have at home as a first in Ultra HD. ⚽⚽⚽ 🍺🍺🍺
Are you entirely confident this will be a thoroughly enjoyable experience for you?
Ooh exciting, got a HDR TV yesterday and I just realised this weekend's fixtures include Man Utd v Liverpool, being advertised as available in Ultra HD. Shame pubs haven't reopened inside yet for that fixture, but its a great fixture to have at home as a first in Ultra HD. ⚽⚽⚽ 🍺🍺🍺
The majority of PL matches are UHD now, only exceptions are the few the BBC has (but they're planning to do UHD for the Euros as they did with the world cup) and the odd BT Sport and Amazon game that clashes. We've been UHD since Oct and it's great.
Ooh exciting, got a HDR TV yesterday and I just realised this weekend's fixtures include Man Utd v Liverpool, being advertised as available in Ultra HD. Shame pubs haven't reopened inside yet for that fixture, but its a great fixture to have at home as a first in Ultra HD. ⚽⚽⚽ 🍺🍺🍺
The majority of PL matches are UHD now, only exceptions are the few the BBC has (but they're planning to do UHD for the Euros as they did with the world cup) and the odd BT Sport and Amazon game that clashes. We've been UHD since Oct and it's great.
Good to know.
I've never seen one UHD yet as until now didn't have a UHD TV and pre-Lockdown my Local had normal HDTV not UHD. No idea how common UHD is in pubs nowadays.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
I agree. Who do you trust with the economy will be strongly Tory for the next 10 years or so. Labours Corbyn interlude really has set Labour and the electoral change cycle back quite a bit. (Many thanks Nick Palmer)
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
I highly doubt it will be Truss, she is a classical liberal libertarian in a social democratic age with immigration controls on top.
Spent the past two days in Darlington, Stockton and Hartlepool ahead of May 6 elections. Not a single punter expressed concerns about 'cash for curtains'. Typical remarks, as per one Labour voter, "as long as we didn't pay for it, he can decorates his house how he likes."
Looks increasingly likely to me that Alba are going to miss out on any seats at all (sorry Malcolm), that the SNP are going to miss out on a majority on their own due to the voting system and may even go backwards, but those in favour of a second referendum will increase their majority because of the Greens gaining more seats.
How that will go down is beyond me. Strange days.
That will be presented in different places as a 'supermajority' for independence and 'no majority' for independence.
If the SNP actually LOSE seats all talk of a momentum towards indy will dissolve (especially with these dire-for-YES Indy polls). Sturgeon will ‘demand’ one but in the most lacklustre way. Boris will bat it aside. Sturgeon will shrug - and then her angry militants will come for her
What are the odds on a Sturgeon departure this year? Might be VALUE
For the first time, Ladbrokes odds on NOM are the same as an SNP majority at 10/11 - wish I'd put more on when they were 11/4!
Odds on Nicola being FM on 1/1/2022 are shortening (now 1/6), presumaby due to her Green allies more than picking up the slack.
Spent the past two days in Darlington, Stockton and Hartlepool ahead of May 6 elections. Not a single punter expressed concerns about 'cash for curtains'. Typical remarks, as per one Labour voter, "as long as we didn't pay for it, he can decorates his house how he likes."
My submission is that what is happening is a generational change primarily based-unsurprisingly-on identity politics. Those who are inclined to favour their "Britishness" are older people. Those who are inclined to favour their "Scottishness" (and identity as Europeans) are younger people.
If PBers wish to believe that is the sort of attitude that will change in the way that younger Labour voters often trend towards becoming Conservative voters as they age, go right ahead.
I expect you to be very wrong.
Lifelong Conservatives saying folk become more right wing as they get older is definitely one of the most convincing theories going on PB.
There are definitely some who do not move Right as they get older! Even my 'traditional Tory' bro-in-law is beginning to weaken!
I haven't. The opposite in fact.
I have definitely become more centrist. I think it must be reading some of the embarrassing nonsense written on here by people claiming to be Conservative may have contributed to that trend.
Well that's a move left for you, isn't it. Hats off.
That Starmer picture is terrible - he looks as if he's never seen a roll of wallpaper before.
He needs new advisors. Why bother going to Bath, for instance, when it's one of the most prominent LD vs Con battles in the country? In Bristol they would have loved to see him.
Looks increasingly likely to me that Alba are going to miss out on any seats at all (sorry Malcolm), that the SNP are going to miss out on a majority on their own due to the voting system and may even go backwards, but those in favour of a second referendum will increase their majority because of the Greens gaining more seats.
How that will go down is beyond me. Strange days.
That will be presented in different places as a 'supermajority' for independence and 'no majority' for independence.
If the SNP actually LOSE seats all talk of a momentum towards indy will dissolve (especially with these dire-for-YES Indy polls). Sturgeon will ‘demand’ one but in the most lacklustre way. Boris will bat it aside. Sturgeon will shrug - and then her angry militants will come for her
What are the odds on a Sturgeon departure this year? Might be VALUE
For the first time, Ladbrokes odds on NOM are the same as an SNP majority at 10/11 - wish I'd put more on when they were 11/4!
Odds on Nicola being FM on 1/1/2022 are shortening (now 1/6), presumaby due to her Green allies more than picking up the slack.
I did say months back that NOM in Scotland was VALUE
I guess Sturgeon is likely to stay simply because there is no obvious alternative? It's not like Salmond, when she was the clear and gifted successor. This time there is a dearth of rival talent.
So she will likely endure. But the fall out in the Nat camp will be intense. A massive stramash is coming and she will be relentlessly attacked by the hardcore who want UDI yesterday. She may not want to stick around, and if she loses seats next week she will be seen as damaged good with a sell-by-date. Mebbes
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
I agree. Who do you trust with the economy will be strongly Tory for the next 10 years or so. Labours Corbyn interlude really has set Labour and the electoral change cycle back quite a bit. (Many thanks Nick Palmer)
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
I highly doubt it will be Truss, she is a classical liberal libertarian in a social democratic age with immigration controls on top.
Sunak is the only viable alternative
She seems wildly popular.
Rishi seems the sort to have hopped out the picture by then having shot one of his feet off.
How bad would the election results have to be next week for Starmer to consider his position? What if he loses everything important except London, for instance.
He won't, Labour will almost certainly gain county council seats in England given they were 11% behind the Tories last time they were up in 2017.
Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.
Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
Starmer is rock solid safe as Labour leader. He has the PLP, the membership and the NEC on his side. There is no-one who can challenge him. After a really tough 14 months people are feeling optimistic for themselves and the country. Of course they are going to reward the governing party. People who thought that wallpaper and Cummings would make any difference to the political fundamentals are just a bit clueless.
Looks increasingly likely to me that Alba are going to miss out on any seats at all (sorry Malcolm), that the SNP are going to miss out on a majority on their own due to the voting system and may even go backwards, but those in favour of a second referendum will increase their majority because of the Greens gaining more seats.
How that will go down is beyond me. Strange days.
More SNP + Green seats will be argued to show a greater demand for independence.
Look last time Independence had X seats when we didn't talk about a referendum. Now Independence has X+Y seats on a manifesto that said we wanted a referendum tomorrow.
Er, another indyref was in the SNP 2016 manifesto if a material change ocurred, and post-Brexit the Scottish Parliament duly voted for it by 69 to 59 in March 2017.
Nicola Sturgeon has backed away from her threat to hold a new independence referendum this year as a new poll showed support for leaving the UK had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months....
"run away"
Hah
This will absolutely ENRAGE the hardcore Yessers
A huge split is coming in Nat-land. Lay Sturgeon
The plan was never to hold the Ref this year. It's no change. What with this and the new "shock" Con polling lead. Slow news day. Guess if there's no real drama happening we have to make some up. Which is fair enough. I shouldn't be such a party pooper.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
I agree. Who do you trust with the economy will be strongly Tory for the next 10 years or so. Labours Corbyn interlude really has set Labour and the electoral change cycle back quite a bit. (Many thanks Nick Palmer)
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
I highly doubt it will be Truss, she is a classical liberal libertarian in a social democratic age with immigration controls on top.
Sunak is the only viable alternative
She seems wildly popular.
Rishi seems the sort to have hopped out the picture by then having shot one of his feet off.
With who? A few libertarian Tory members when the country as a whole is anything but libertarian at the moment but social democratic economically, pro lockdown and wanting tighter immigration controls and a tougher line on crime.
Patel or Raab would be a better bet than Truss at the moment but Sunak and Boris are better than all of them
Tiny hint there of a decline in SNP support, down to 4. OK it's from 5. But still
A TWENTY PERCENT FALL IN SNP SUPPORT
Rounding. It happens quite a lot - fluctuates between 4 and 5 in the headline figure.
It was a mild joke. Tho I do believe the SNP are faltering - slightly
Ah, fair enough.
BTW FPT - I went to bed last night and missed your reply uto my answer to your question on the best strategy for indyref. No, I was being quite serious, not trying to fudge you off: so much is happening in the next week or two one might as well wait and see before thinking too hard. There's a difference between the overall aim and the immediate tactics, which are necessarily contingent on such matters as wallpaper and Holyrood electoral mechanisms.
BTW I did my postal vote today. Very struck by the number of anti-indy parties, Mr Galloway's lot, Ms Ballantyne's lot, and so on, to add to SCON, SLAB and SLD. Not entirely sure that having them split the Unionist vote won't outweigh the Alba effect.
Nicola Sturgeon has backed away from her threat to hold a new independence referendum this year as a new poll showed support for leaving the UK had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months....
"run away"
Hah
This will absolutely ENRAGE the hardcore Yessers
A huge split is coming in Nat-land. Lay Sturgeon
The plan was never to hold the Ref this year. It's no change. What with this and the new "shock" Con polling lead. Slow news day. Guess if there's no real drama happening we have to make some up. Which is fair enough. I shouldn't be such a party pooper.
You don't understand. Of course Sturgeon never intended to hold a vote this year (it's basically impossible because Covid, anyway, leaving aside HMG's blank refusal). She also won't hold one if there's a good chance of losing, as a 2nd NO will finish her, the SNP and the cause.
However she has a militant wing to appease, who still believe she is committed to Sindyref ASAP, so she has to act like she is champing at the bit.
After the election, when it becomes obvious she has no plan or desire to achieve indy other than the same, slow, chip-chip-chip-away of grievance-mongering, the militant wing will turn on her. I reckon
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
I agree. Who do you trust with the economy will be strongly Tory for the next 10 years or so. Labours Corbyn interlude really has set Labour and the electoral change cycle back quite a bit. (Many thanks Nick Palmer)
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
I highly doubt it will be Truss, she is a classical liberal libertarian in a social democratic age with immigration controls on top.
Sunak is the only viable alternative
She seems wildly popular.
Rishi seems the sort to have hopped out the picture by then having shot one of his feet off.
With who? A few libertarian Tory members when the country as a whole is anything but libertarian at the moment but social democratic economically, pro lockdown and wanting tighter immigration controls and a tougher line on crime
Indeed. The vast majority of Joe and Joanne Public haven't heard of her.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
I dont think it is. I think the last week will probably mean the least in any recent by election. The postal votes will be now mostly returned. PVs are the dedicated and most likely to vote of the electorate, and i'm assuming that PVs in this election are higher than ever before.
On the ground rumour from a tory mp in Hartlepool over the weekend and earlier this week. They think they've got it. Numbers reminiscent of Copeland byelection.
Probably accurate, but a week is a long time in politics, particularly this week.
A lot of postals in these times of Covid - and they are mostly in.
I would remain very surprised if there was a Labour hold in Hartlepool even without early postal vote returns. I believe it will be rather a comfortable Conservative win too, on a low turnout. My point was, pressure on Johnson and the Conservatives does seem to be fast moving. Nonetheless, I am not sure whoever wins Hartlepool tells us very much about GE2024.
You'd better hope Labour hold Hartlepool, because if they don't, the abject humiliation of the Opposition losing seats in midterm to a Boris Johnson under full assault by the media will kill Wallpapergate stone dead.
Here speaks somebody who is plainly not getting his weekly copy of "newpunditry-newpolitics".
I can do you a deal. Subscribe FREE at this point. It will cost a fiver once every man and his dog are clambering to get onboard in a few weeks.
Bluest is right here. The Tories will win Hartlepool and the pressure on Starmer becomes the big political story for this summer now.
The main reason it’s going Tory is voters there think if their constituency is Tory the government will want to keep it so by pouring money in, and a Tory MP is the best lobbiest to secure that investment. It’s completely sound thinking, and there’s absolutely nothing Labour can do about it, except sit it out for goodness knows how many years, till the voters feel let down and time for a change.
The pressure is not just on Starmer, his successor is likely to be destroyed by the Tories owning the levelling up idea whilst Labour own the stagnation and rape by globalisation of the 90’s and 00’s, the New Labour years predominantly.
The irony is that Boris is going on almost as big a spending splurge as Biden announced for the US last night, this is basically a social democratic government with a blue rosette for the foreseeable future after Covid
If you were advising Labour, what should they do, if anything can be done to help them in next 5 - 10 years?
Promise to spend even more than Boris and Rishi I suspect and tax the rich to pay for it (which would appease their base), classical liberalism is out for at least a decade or more
I agree. Who do you trust with the economy will be strongly Tory for the next 10 years or so. Labours Corbyn interlude really has set Labour and the electoral change cycle back quite a bit. (Many thanks Nick Palmer)
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
Impressive. But I have the Derby winner for 2042. It's called ... no, I'm not saying. Don't want to spoil the odds.
Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)
In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
The ones I saw had as core prediction a faily minor bump later in the year. Worst case was a peak to rival January. Both may now be too pessimistic - i.e. the most likely is very litte/no noticeable increase at all, but in my recollection it was the media and some on here getting all hot under the collar over the worst case scenarios and ingoring all the other projections.
I had a meething that included a couple of SAGE people a few weeks back (relating to vaccine rollout and prioritisation/targetting - they were in the meeting wearing other hats, not SAGE) and conversation before everyone arrived turned to the models. Neither thought a third wave to rival the second was at all likely; one was a little twitchy about people relaxing too much too soon - i.e. doing more than the restrictions permitted and the potential for that to delay May and June relaxations - but the other was completely relaxed, convinced we were winning the race with vaccinations whatever else happened.
Just noticed in the England speciment date case data - we recorded our first day with under 1k PCR positives on Saturday and again on Sunday. There's now compelling data that shows our reopening has not resulted in any explosion in cases. By the time we get to May 17th there will be 35m people with partial or full immunity from one or two doses, a further 6-8m young people with partial or full immunity from prior infection and around 1.5-2m people being added to that every week by way of first doses in May.
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
Pace JVT last night too - expecting a third wave. I think if they wish to say this, they need to say what they define as a wave (small increase in a cases in autumn? More hospitalization? etc) and also why they think it will happen. It seem to me to be a messaging thing, designed to keep us all playing nicely. A few weeks ago the talk was of another 30.000 deaths (on top of the 120,000 at that time). I poo pooed this at the time, and I would say I have been right. I just don't see where the extra deaths will come from now.
There’s been a subtle change in language. The phraseology from JVT is “third upsurge” rather than third wave. But to some degree you are right, much of the rhetoric is designed to hold the public’s feet to the fire as we enter the endgame.
Comments
To the horror of many is...
"Starmer has an image problem. He’s seen as weak and wimpy and that won’t do. Here’s my solution: metal umlauts. Farewell Keir Starmer of Labour, hello Këir Stärmer of Laböur. It’s a winner."
link: https://twitter.com/ScanlanWithAnA/status/1387115328140873729
Labour leaders combined -6%
Tory leaders combined -4%
Starmer a real drag on his Party in Scotland.....
https://twitter.com/machotrouts/status/1387506934027366407?s=20
It's as near as he will ever get to choosing the wallpaper at Number 10.
Since then their policy (sensibly) has been: blur the issue and avoid the question. This feels like an error. We shall see
This ruling, however, judging by several of his posts here, does not apply to Conservative canvassers, such as Marquee Mark.
Which shows how scared they are by it
I really think we've got the virus in full retreat, there is no longer anything to fear from unlockdown and we can go into June with a lot of confidence on our final step of getting rid of all restrictions.
The predictions of a third wave bigger than the second looks absolutely laughable now. Those scientists with the dodgy models should be forced to print retractions.
Zero Covid is never going to work, its a laughable suggestion. Vaccinations work, that's all we need, then time to get back to normal. Not "new normal", just normal.
If I was professionally associated with some predictions which I could see were going to be massively wrong - and could see that the reason they were going to be massively wrong was that the initial assumptions were far too negative - I would be arse-covering with every ounce of energy I can muster; ensuring it was widely known that the initial assumptions were wrong and producing updated figures. It would be potentially professionally damaging not to do so.
A few weeks ago the talk was of another 30.000 deaths (on top of the 120,000 at that time). I poo pooed this at the time, and I would say I have been right. I just don't see where the extra deaths will come from now.
As you get older and move from renting to owning a property and settle down with a family you become more conservative
Con: 44% (n/c 21-22 April)
Lab: 33% (-1)
Lib Dem: 7% (+2)
Green: 7% (n/c)
SNP: 4% (-1)
Reform UK: 3% (+1)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/04/29/voting-intention-con-44-lab-33-27-28-apr?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1387790879444848645/photo/1
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/29/nicola-sturgeon-backs-away-2021-independence-referendum/
Nicola Sturgeon has backed away from her threat to hold a new independence referendum this year as a new poll showed support for leaving the UK had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months....
"run away"
The rollout is the Falklands Factor so Labour folk just have to sit it out for 10 or 15 years like in the 80’s.
In about 7 years Chancellor Truss will take over from Boris, win the subsequent election narrowly but be in for 5 years on top of all this.
Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.
Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
This will absolutely ENRAGE the hardcore Yessers
A huge split is coming in Nat-land. Lay Sturgeon
I've never seen one UHD yet as until now didn't have a UHD TV and pre-Lockdown my Local had normal HDTV not UHD. No idea how common UHD is in pubs nowadays.
Sunak is the only viable alternative
And that's all I have to say about that.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1387793019781398534?s=20
Tiny hint there of a decline in SNP support, down to 4. OK it's from 5. But still
A TWENTY PERCENT FALL IN SNP SUPPORT
Odds on Nicola being FM on 1/1/2022 are shortening (now 1/6), presumaby due to her Green allies more than picking up the slack.
What a cunning plan .... snigger......
Oh dear oh dear oh dear.
Those stats about best pm do not lie.
Bloody hell.
I guess Sturgeon is likely to stay simply because there is no obvious alternative? It's not like Salmond, when she was the clear and gifted successor. This time there is a dearth of rival talent.
So she will likely endure. But the fall out in the Nat camp will be intense. A massive stramash is coming and she will be relentlessly attacked by the hardcore who want UDI yesterday. She may not want to stick around, and if she loses seats next week she will be seen as damaged good with a sell-by-date. Mebbes
Rishi seems the sort to have hopped out the picture by then having shot one of his feet off.
To paraphrase Jonathan Pie " When will we learn that posting amusing memes on Twitter does not win you elections".
Patel or Raab would be a better bet than Truss at the moment but Sunak and Boris are better than all of them
I’d hate to be a fly on the wallpaper in Labour HQ right now.
BTW FPT - I went to bed last night and missed your reply uto my answer to your question on the best strategy for indyref. No, I was being quite serious, not trying to fudge you off: so much is happening in the next week or two one might as well wait and see before thinking too hard. There's a difference between the overall aim and the immediate tactics, which are necessarily contingent on such matters as wallpaper and Holyrood electoral mechanisms.
BTW I did my postal vote today. Very struck by the number of anti-indy parties, Mr Galloway's lot, Ms Ballantyne's lot, and so on, to add to SCON, SLAB and SLD. Not entirely sure that having them split the Unionist vote won't outweigh the Alba effect.
However she has a militant wing to appease, who still believe she is committed to Sindyref ASAP, so she has to act like she is champing at the bit.
After the election, when it becomes obvious she has no plan or desire to achieve indy other than the same, slow, chip-chip-chip-away of grievance-mongering, the militant wing will turn on her. I reckon
The vast majority of Joe and Joanne Public haven't heard of her.
That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
I had a meething that included a couple of SAGE people a few weeks back (relating to vaccine rollout and prioritisation/targetting - they were in the meeting wearing other hats, not SAGE) and conversation before everyone arrived turned to the models. Neither thought a third wave to rival the second was at all likely; one was a little twitchy about people relaxing too much too soon - i.e. doing more than the restrictions permitted and the potential for that to delay May and June relaxations - but the other was completely relaxed, convinced we were winning the race with vaccinations whatever else happened.