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With a week to go Scottish LAB and its leader edge up in latest Savanta ComRes poll – politicalbetti
With a week to go Scottish LAB and its leader edge up in latest Savanta ComRes poll – politicalbetting.com
Savanta ComRes Scotland poll good for new Scots Labour leader Net favourability: Sturgeon +16 (+1); Sarwar +9 (+3); Rennie -5 (+5); Ross -15 (-2); Starmer -13 (-9); Johnson -34 (-2).
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9518183/amp/Boriss-despairing-cry-Downing-St-aides-lavish-new-decor.html?__twitter_impression=true
This latest Scottish poll, if held under NZ’s PR system would deliver:
SNP 50
Con 31
Lab 27
Grn 14
LDm 7
SNP/Grn 1 seat shy of a majority.
Possible govt combinations:
SNP/Lab
SNP/Grn/LDm
How that will go down is beyond me. Strange days.
1. Alba fails to gain any seats
2. SNP fails to gain a majority.
3. Labour outperforms Conservative
4. SNP/Green fail to gain a majority
(1) and (2) now look likely.
There is insufficient evidence for (3).
I can only dream of (4).
My eyes glazed over as I read it. So dull. I know Remoaners like you and Tom Peck are desperate for some belated revenge on Boris, but I’d be amazed if this is it. Sturgeon survived an alleged conspiracy to jail and ruin a rival on fake rape charges, Boris will survive a confected brouhaha about decor
His reckoning will come, however. When the economy slides
What are the odds on a Sturgeon departure this year? Might be VALUE
Slides tend to come about once every 8-12 years. Next slide quite plausibly could be around the time of the 2033 election.
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
I forgot that Sinn Fein can now make demands before accepting whoever the DUP appoint as the new first minister.
I can foresee all scenarios: a dystopia where the virus rampages around Asia all summer, busily mutating, then comes back to hit the west for a hideous third/fourth wave, and the global economy totters; or a near-utopia where India is cured, the vaccines roll out across the world, and the debt mountain disappears as the planet throws a party
Or something in between - a dangerous, indebted new world that also has opportunities and optimism
Look last time Independence had X seats when we didn't talk about a referendum. Now Independence has X+Y seats on a manifesto that said we wanted a referendum tomorrow.
https://archive.ph/eg2lt
All votes for the SNP / Green / Alba are votes for a referendum...
You may not like it but if the manifesto contains a referendum and those parties end up with 51%+* of the seats it's going to be hard to argue that there isn't demand for one.
*and yes I know that doesn't mean SNP / Green / Alba will have 50% of the vote but that's the consequence of insane electoral rules.
The DUP though is also losing votes to the “right”, ie the TUV.
Arlene is being deposed not because she is a “liberal”, but because she absolutely fucked up on Brexit.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1387708851437424647?s=20
Who leads the opposition?
In regard to the trend away from independence resulting in no having a 7 % lead yesterday, I just want to say the one thing the Scots are known for is being 'very cannie' and post covid, brexit, and the economic consequences they are not about to risk their futures, including their pensions, on an experiment that has not had any answers from its proponents and is immeasurably more difficult now brexit has occurred.
Foster was the May of the DUP losing votes to the TUV, the NI Brexit Party.
The DUP need to find a Boris to win back voters lost to a party to their right, a few DUP voters might vote UUP or Alliance as a few Tories voted LD once Boris took over but overall the net gains should be enough to give the DUP a narrow lead again
It is our decision under the Scotland Act 1998 whether to have a binding referendum and how the future of the Union looks so tough. We are in power across the UK.
The failure of the SNP to win a majority just makes that easier to enforce
The general assumption that people are making is that the economic slide will soon be reversed, so government spending cuts and tax rises can be kept manageable.
Also, there is an assumption that social distancing measures, such as working from home and wearing masks, will continue for the forseeable future. These assumptions, which are widely held, cannot both be correct.
I think that it is too early to say that the economic contraction is over.
I would be very surprised to see 'No' losing their lead in the polls, not only just now but through the next Scottish Parliament term
I would caveat that by saying IMHO, and I could be wrong
If social distancing is still in place 22 June I would support letters being sent to Graham Brady.
The big issue is that as far as I can see, Labour don't have a single SNP seat that they would gain on a 5% swing. Unless there is a lot of tactical voting, even their modest current improvement they won't gain anything off of the SNP.
Mind you if personal banking runs at a loss and you wanted to start closing it down it would be an ideal way of doing so.
(I'd suggest polyoaf)
The Guardian employ their very own.
Labour's top 2 targets are Eastwood yes and Edinburgh Central, of the 2 Central is probably their best bet as it is ultra Remain and there could be a lot of direct switching of Unionist Remainers there from SCon to Labour now Davidson is gone
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1387655832037437442?s=20
https://news.stv.tv/scotland/sir-tom-hunter-now-is-not-the-time-to-gamble-on-indyref2
Why would rUK send a penny more than Scotland raises in taxes itself if it had voted to leave the UK?
"We don't like you but can we still have your money?"
Electoral suicide for a Westminster government.
Good luck, Scotland.
The SNP surely know this. Probably this is their plan. They don’t want a referendum now. Look at the polls and the pile of debt. They want to demand a referendum in such outrageous terms it is easy and obligatory for Boris to say No. The SNP can nurture a grievance without facing the catastrophe of a 2nd No vote
However this might easily destabilize the Nats. 30% of them want a new vote TOMORROW
Sturgeon is in some trouble
But that too will pass in time.
Of course a subset of society will throw their masks on the bonfire but they will find it difficult to operate as per the status quo ante. For a while.
Me, I just want to pop into a cafe, sit down at a free table and order a decaf americano without having to fill any forms in or register.
Last year she was heading serenely for a landslide SNP majority in the polls, now with just a week to go to polling day she faces not only failing to get a majority but seeing the SNP actually lose seats.
She will then face turbulence from the hardline Nationalist Alba contingency for not pushing for independence enough just as May did from the ERG for not delivering a hard enough Brexit.
Unfortunately for Nationalists Salmond, who would have been their Boris, is now deeply unpopular in Scotland too
The whole economic side of independence is in my view almost impossible to navigate. At least for the time being. (Of course there may be wise Scottish heads that have a viable plan, but it seems unlikely to me)
In several places I just sat down, asked for a cold beer, and turned my face to the sun. Bliss
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1387725994358976512
People will keep calm and carry on until 21 June but then it is OVER. Some people will want to drag it out, but for the overwhelming majority of people the second its no longer required that will be it. No ifs, no buts, no messing around.
Its worth remembering very few people were wearing masks until they were made compulsory. The second its no longer compulsory the overwhelming majority of people will stop doing it - and almost no business will demand it because they'd be stupid to do so.
Gill Harris, Executive Director of Nursing and Midwifery for BCUHB, said: “This week, to ensure our vaccine supply is administered as quickly as it is received, we will continue to run two streams for those aged 18-49.
“One will deliver the Pfizer vaccine to those under the age of 30, and one will deliver the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine to those aged between 30 and 49.
“We are adopting this pragmatic approach to ensure vaccines are not left for long periods unused.
https://www.leaderlive.co.uk/news/19248654.two-vaccination-streams-running-north-wales-amid-new-covid-19-advice/
Potentially smart as long as vaccine supply holds up.
If a cafe wants to do this I'd assume they have very good reasons for wanting to do so and respect that. The overwhelming majority of cafes will simply want as many paying customers as they can get.
However, many places won't (Spoons definitely won't, as won't my local), so I'm likely to go to them instead. Given what a rough 18 months these places have had, I can't see many keeping custom losing policies for very long.
Lyme Regis in particular was rammed. It was a lovely sunny day - but a workday. It felt like a particularly jubilant Bank Holiday
Likewise, a friend of mine was out in Soho last night, he reports scenes of wild hedonism
We could be heading into an epic summer
Legal compulsion will be removed 21 June. Government will trumpet freedom day - or whatever - and its success in achieving road map target. In tandem, though, the government or Whitty et al will say something along the lines of "we advise x, y and z as best practice to maximise safety". Business decide to take guidelines as quasi laws, probably with indemnity insurance in their minds, and not much changes post 21 June with many businesses.
This has been the single most dominant news story to affect our lives, probably of any of our lifetimes (unless there's anyone here old enough to remember WWII). All of the owners of these businesses will have been deeply impacted and struggling to keep afloat for a year now and paying damn close attention to what the rules are.
The idea that the restrictions will be lifted and the business owners will just be blasé, not informed, or not implement the looser rules has to be one of the most puzzling suggestions anyone keeps making.
You can bet you bottom pound that every serious pub landlord, cafe owner or anyone else will know pretty much exactly what is and is not allowed on 21 June.
That's what you get for trying to fight Covid on the cheap, Europe.
I was in Exmouth for the week after April 12.
Nary a mask in sight.
Was sheer joy to sit down and have someone bring me gin and tonic.
In fact, in terms of mental well-being, it was the best holiday I have EVER had.
Customers and businesses want this behind them and businesses want cash in the tills. Its naïve to suggest otherwise.
Places with older, more cautious customers - theatres? - might maintain some restrictions for a while
In general, however, the tendency will be to freedom. Animal spirits will prevail; unless the bastard bug returns
"Latest @BMGResearch preferred Prime Minister poll:
Boris Johnson: 40% (+5)
Keir Starmer: 24% (-4)
What is Keir Starmer doing wrong?"
But his wallpaper . . .
That week just gone, of West Country sun and pub lunches, was intensely cheering. It should see me through to May 17...
Got to run. Mrs Stocky is demanding we go look at some carpet and stuff. I'll keep within £30,000.