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With a week to go Scottish LAB and its leader edge up in latest Savanta ComRes poll – politicalbetti

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  • sarissa said:

    In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.

    That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.
    Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    sarissa said:

    In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.

    That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.

    Especialy with the new, er, non-mainstream parties cluttring up the list. Even Mr Galoway's leaflet forgot to say which mainstream party to vote for when demanding my list vote.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    dixiedean said:

    Are you entirely confident this will be a thoroughly enjoyable experience for you? :)
    Lol! Or for anyone?? It’s usually a bloody awful match with both teams terrified of losing. I hope for Philip’s sake that this one is different and it graces his new telly!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
    I think she already does, given her support for nuke weapons.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225

    There’s been a subtle change in language. The phraseology from JVT is “third upsurge” rather than third wave. But to some degree you are right, much of the rhetoric is designed to hold the public’s feet to the fire as we enter the endgame.
    I do think that's true. Some believe we could still cock this up if people act ahead of the milestones and/or there are any further vaccine delays and so are trying to make sure it doesn't happen.

    Some resurgence in cases is certainly possible, depending on vaccine rollouts. But cases alone shouldn't really be the concern.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,399

    Exactly what I have been saying, the taxpayer did not pay for the refurbishment so people will not care.
    They may not care but that doesn't make your statement true as the taxpayer has paid for the refurbishment up to the maximum allowed, so equal to or more than all previous PMs.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 764
    What you lot don't understand is that an independent Scotland's new economy will be based on holding referenda at every opportunity. We will all have cushy jobs on electoral commissions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,162
    New thread.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,172
    This thread has been forced to pay for their own wallpaper
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,349

    That's Edstone level of blatant
    The Edstone was the greatest political stunt of this generation, don't take its name in vain.
  • HYUFD said:

    He won't, Labour will almost certainly gain county council seats in England given they were 11% behind the Tories last time they were up in 2017.

    Labour will also make gains in Scotland on today's poll and in Wales still be largest party even if they lose some seats to the Tories. In London Labour and Khan will likely win by a landslide.

    Only the WM mayoralty race and probably the Hartlepool by election result are likely to be poor for Labour, the district elections are likely to see some Labour gains from the LDs but losses to the Tories
    The hartlepool by election if labour lose is the only game in town. Everything else is a sideshow.
  • Carnyx said:

    I think she already does, given her support for nuke weapons.
    I doubt an issue almost irrelevant to this election is moving many votes.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,399
    edited April 2021

    Talking about wallpaper during a once in a 100 year pandemic was never going to work.
    Again that may well be true, but it doesn't make it right does it? Or would you argue that it doesn't matter a damn what you do provided you win elections?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    As expectorabum. Settledownibus.
    Ignosce, precor: hilaritate quasi convulsus ego arbitratus Scottum tot tantaque frustra cacavisse...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I doubt an issue almost irrelevant to this election is moving many votes.
    It is however completely contrary to SLAB policy - a nice case of having your (yellow) cake and eating it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    The hartlepool by election if labour lose is the only game in town. Everything else is a sideshow.
    No it is largely irrelevant to the national picture given the BXP got 25% there in 2019 and only 3% nationally.

    The council elections and Scottish and Welsh and London polls are far more significant in terms of the national picture
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited April 2021
    This has got Twitter in a tizzy:

    The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

    The general consensus is "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    HYUFD said:

    I highly doubt it will be Truss, she is a classical liberal libertarian in a social democratic age with immigration controls on top.

    Sunak is the only viable alternative
    She is also a republican atheist - a credo far more popular on PB (including with me!) than in the public at large.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427
    HYUFD said:

    For the majority however it is always true, the Conservatives have only ever lost the over 65 vote once in my lifetime, in 1997 and Labour have only ever lost the under 25 vote once in my lifetime, in 1983.

    As you get older and move from renting to owning a property and settle down with a family you become more conservative
    As I see the disadvantages being thrown at my children and, especially now, my grandchildren I become angrier.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Spent the past two days in Darlington, Stockton and Hartlepool ahead of May 6 elections. Not a single punter expressed concerns about 'cash for curtains'. Typical remarks, as per one Labour voter, "as long as we didn't pay for it, he can decorates his house how he likes."

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1387793019781398534?s=20

    Oh how they'll laugh if Starmer gets plastered!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    Leon said:

    You don't understand. Of course Sturgeon never intended to hold a vote this year (it's basically impossible because Covid, anyway, leaving aside HMG's blank refusal). She also won't hold one if there's a good chance of losing, as a 2nd NO will finish her, the SNP and the cause.

    However she has a militant wing to appease, who still believe she is committed to Sindyref ASAP, so she has to act like she is champing at the bit.

    After the election, when it becomes obvious she has no plan or desire to achieve indy other than the same, slow, chip-chip-chip-away of grievance-mongering, the militant wing will turn on her. I reckon
    Yes, I knew all that. Not pretending I did - I did. She has a tricky course to plot if she gets a majority and a VERY tricky one to plot if she doesn't. It's no walk in the park for her to lead Scotland to independence from here.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Wait ti we have real voters casting real ballots a week today
    A large number have already voted by post.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Starmer is rock solid safe as Labour leader. He has the PLP, the membership and the NEC on his side. There is no-one who can challenge him. After a really tough 14 months people are feeling optimistic for themselves and the country. Of course they are going to reward the governing party. People who thought that wallpaper and Cummings would make any difference to the political fundamentals are just a bit clueless.

    That's a bit rude about OGH! :smiley:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.
    It's really easy to measure in some places because the list vote is broken down by constituency.

    So for Edinburgh Southern we can see that Labour got 35.5% on the Constituency vote and SCons got 26.1%. Thus beating the SNP on 32.6%.

    Yet on the List SCons came in first place with 29.2% of the vote and Labour 3rd with 21.9%
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Ignosce, precor: hilaritate quasi convulsus ego arbitratus Scottum tot tantaque frustra cacavisse...
    Taken a risk and given you a 'like' for that.

    Hope it didn't mean something appalling such as "lol - people don't care about corruption".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Cicero said:

    Malc, Are you listening to the scores on the doors? I guess we will see next weekend, but I reckon you are in for a very nasty surprise if you really beleive any of that.
    Hard to see any London party getting anywhere near power in the forseeable. It will be list seats for the unionists , if it was not a rigged system they would have a handful between them for sure. Crap as the SNP are there is no appetite in Scotland for the London parties.
    Sarwar missed his chance by not supporting Independence referendum this time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited April 2021
    Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

    Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
    Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect


    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    kjh said:

    Again that may well be true, but it doesn't make it right does it? Or would you argue that it doesn't matter a damn what you do provided you win elections?
    Doesn't make what right? Boris paid for the refurbishment of the flat saving the taxpayer money, I think that is a good thing
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited April 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Taken a risk and given you a 'like' for that.

    Hope it didn't mean something appalling such as "lol - people don't care about corruption".
    As if I'd do something like that :smile:

    Anyway, the Romans already had an idiom that could be applied to that idea: pecunia non olet.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,559
    malcolmg said:

    Hard to see any London party getting anywhere near power in the forseeable. It will be list seats for the unionists , if it was not a rigged system they would have a handful between them for sure. Crap as the SNP are there is no appetite in Scotland for the London parties.
    Sarwar missed his chance by not supporting Independence referendum this time.
    Really - Much to the annoyance in my popcorn factory shares Independence is not going to occur.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834

    Doesn't make what right? Boris paid for the refurbishment of the flat saving the taxpayer money, I think that is a good thing
    He didn't save the taxpayer money, as Johnson maxed out the allowance.

    How much did it cost the taxpayer in sweetheart deals for Johnsons donor chums?
  • HYUFD said:

    No it is largely irrelevant to the national picture given the BXP got 25% there in 2019 and only 3% nationally.

    The council elections and Scottish and Welsh and London polls are far more significant in terms of the national picture
    I'm talking about media coverage, social and traditional. If people cared about councils, crime commissioners and elected mayors (outside of london) they would vote for them in anything other than derisory numbers.

    A leader of the opposition losing a byelection in a seat they held will be a political earthquake. Last time it happened it caused a Prime Minister to call a general election only two years in to a five year term. That didnt end well of course...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,399
    edited April 2021

    Doesn't make what right? Boris paid for the refurbishment of the flat saving the taxpayer money, I think that is a good thing
    Firstly he hasn't saved the taxpayer a penny. He has used all the allowance so has spent as much or much more than all other PMs.

    Secondly he tried to get the significant excess paid for by donors, when that hasn't worked it appears he has taken a loan from a donor!. He hasn't admitted to this but repeatedly refuses to deny it when asked directly whether he took a loan by saying he has paid for it out of his own pocket ignoring the actual question. It appears having been found out about taking a loan, he has now repaid it. There is a reason why these actions are either illegal or require a declaration because they are a conflict of interest or break donation rules.

    Do you not ask yourself why he doesn't answer the question about whether he took a loan directly? if there is no issue why doesn't he say 'Yes' if he did or 'No' if he didn't. Why has he deliberately avoided answering that question for weeks?

    The fact that he refuses to answer a very simple question says a huge amount and it isn't 'there is nothing to see here'.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    Leon said:

    Hah

    This will absolutely ENRAGE the hardcore Yessers

    A huge split is coming in Nat-land. Lay Sturgeon
    Oh God, the Nat-splainers have logged on.

    Is Sturgeon still around? I had read innumerable posts on here stating that she was absolute toast after the recent Salmond enquiry goings on.
  • kle4 said:

    The Edstone was the greatest political stunt of this generation, don't take its name in vain.
    For those with short memories:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-39880463

    It even resulted in Labour getting a £20k fine from the electoral commission.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56924131

    I really feel for these people, but unless I’m missing something, or the government is playing silly buggers, the total cost for <18m is capped at £50 per flat, per month, indefinitely.

    Which sucks, especially as their flat prices will also have taken a hit. But doesn’t seem to me to be hugely unfair.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,093
    Leon said:

    Subsample alert, margin of error, etc etc

    Tiny hint there of a decline in SNP support, down to 4. OK it's from 5. But still

    A TWENTY PERCENT FALL IN SNP SUPPORT
    SUB-SAMPLE KLAXON

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but there is zero movement in SNP share in Scotland sub-sample from last week. Only movement is LibDem>Labour

    Unless you are being deliberately ironic - I sometimes can't tell.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    kjh said:

    Firstly he hasn't saved the taxpayer a penny. He has used all the allowance so has spent as much or much more than all other PMs.

    Secondly he tried to get the significant excess paid for by donors, when that hasn't worked it appears he has taken a loan from a donor!. He hasn't admitted to this but repeatedly refuses to deny it when asked directly whether he took a loan by saying he has paid for it out of his own pocket ignoring the actual question. It appears having been found out about taking a loan, he has now repaid it. There is a reason why these actions are either illegal or require a declaration because they are a conflict of interest or break donation rules.

    Do you not ask yourself why he doesn't answer the question about whether he took a loan directly? if there is no issue why doesn't he say 'Yes' if he did or 'No' if he didn't. Why has he deliberately avoided answering that question for weeks?

    The fact that he refuses to answer a very simple question says a huge amount and it isn't 'there is nothing to see here'.
    +1

    Excellent summary. Cash for Curtains isn’t going away without some straight answers.

    Obviously, if Putin originally gave or lent him the money for the gold wallpaper, we would all be concerned. If it were his eccentric father, we wouldn’t be concerned. We are somewhere on the sliding scale between the two, and it is peculiar that the clown didn’t come clean from the outset. He must know it will come out sooner or later.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Scott_xP said:
    Another outlier
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,726

    As I see the disadvantages being thrown at my children and, especially now, my grandchildren I become angrier.
    Likewise, any discontent I feel towards my own situation is offset by seeing my parents fairly comfortable. It works both ways. But that's perhaps a function of being an only child. [Actually, personally I have absolutely nothing to complain about apart from not being quite as fortunate as the generation above.]

    Actually, both OKC and HYUFD are on to something here. Young people become gradually more Conservative as they age, but - perhaps - it's not a natural part of ageing; it reflects that as they grow older, they get a bigger stake in society and stand to lose more by radical change.
    But this process of conservatification can only work if the young are allowed to get a stake in society - a home, a secure job, a family. At the moment, as a society, we are offering our younger generations very little of this. (And obviously it's not the job of the state to offer its young people a family, but it certainly is in its interests to offer them the environment in which they might raise one.)
    Previous generations of Tories certainly realised this. Does this one?
    (Note: I certainly don't hold this particular incarnation of Tories responsible for where we are now, yet. The blame lies with the 1997-2016 generation. The current lot will only be to blame for where we are in a decade or so.)
This discussion has been closed.