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The extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon – politicalbetting.com
The above chart is from the latest YouGov poll and shows the extraordinary range of views on whether those sampled had a favourable or unfavourable view of Nicola Sturgeon.
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Assuming she and/or the Union last that long.
This crisis’s goose has been shot, plucked and is roasting nicely in the oven.
Time to move on.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1379770900350926850?s=20
For perspective - previous Labour leader:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1379771693779054599?s=20
I think Mike may have cause and effect reversed. That Tory voters are so hostile to a left-wing nationalist who wants to break up the union Tory voters tend to believe in (I don't) and has spent years attacking Tories . . . is surely entirely predictable.
The age and gender splits probably reflect the Tory and leave votes, not the other way around.
Repost
England CFR
The data is getting so noisy that the 7 day average may be doing more harm than good.... the convergence for the older groups in much clearer in the un-averaged plot.
This is interesting since some thought we might see a reversal - i.e. CRF being dominated by the unvaccinated. Clearly the effect of vaccines is still increasing.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/snp-retains-strong-lead-independence-dominates-voters-concerns
PS. If you have Jodie Fosters phone number...
Brexit worth letting Scots go, say 75% of Tory Leave voters in England
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-worth-letting-scots-go-say-three-quarters-of-tory-leave-voters-in-england-7c5zpcmrv
A huge turnaround from 2014
It is the one thing that really resonates, the pound in your pocket.
Plus I suspect any UK government will publicly tell the markets that we will honour our debts if an IScotland won't honour their share of the debt.
That will shoot a few foxes and causes problems for the Nats in their campaigns.
But my colleagues and I don't know what we're talking about given looking at currency, debt, and legal related issues forms part of our day jobs.
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FPT That will *really* piss off Mons. Macaron if it happens.
Another curve ball, and les Rosbifs have planned for *that* as well.
Let's say 1,000,000 people under 30 now refuse any jab, out of anti vaxxery (and anti vaxxery is much more common in the young) . If 10% of them get Covid that's 100,000 cases, obvs, and we can therefore expect 1% of them to go to hospital: 1,000 people.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death
It won't crash the NHS but that's a lot of suffering, and maybe 100 of them will die. And, of course, Long Covid
This, however, assumes no co-morbidities, because if you are 25 with diabetes your risks are waaaay higher
However maybe my 1m figure is insane, and of course Covid is not prevalent. At the moment. In the UK. We might be fine
On the other hand, anti vaxxery might now be boosted across all ages and communities, and 1m might even be a conservative estimate, we could get 2m extra people not having any jab, and a lot of them will be much more at risk of hospitalisation and death, the MHRA might have just killed 1,000 people and saved 10?
It seems to me they have taken a decision which kinda makes sense on slender logical grounds, from a certain perspective, but which does not take into account human psychology. Perhaps that is not in their remit
Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?
and
If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?
Is this true?
And, if so, that does augur well for a second place, picking up votes from underperforming Parties.*
*And Labour looking at second in Scotland as an achievement. Gosh!
Next question
*Liked might not be the right adjective, but they knew whilst they didn't agree with him politically, they thought he was a nice man who put his family and kids first, something you can't say about Boris Johnson.
https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1379810141126676488?s=20
We really are stronger together and you frankly have to be bordering on mentally ill to think that independence is the issue facing Scotland right now. (ok that bit is maybe not quite so positive)
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1379834181694406657
Before he could ship in more, the Soviet Academy of Sciences heard about his plans to inseminate women in Africa without consent, and all support for the project was taken away.
on the grounds that it "[M]ight undermine the trust of Africans in European researchers and doctors and make problematic any further expeditions of Russian scientists to Africa". Rather than, you know, basic ethics.
Prediction: if it looks like there's any realistic chance of the Tories losing their majority at the next election then they will go to town on the Lab-Nat Pact, just like they did against Ed Miliband. I am assuming that the poll numbers that OGH has posted are from a GB-wide survey, which will therefore mask regional differences - the SNP might not do too badly in many places that Labour can still rely on, such as Islington, but the flip side of that is they are absolutely loathed in much of provincial England. The Conservatives can and will weaponize this.
Mind bending doesn't cover it
The ONS cautions against reading too much into individual local figures, but levels of "often or always" lonely are double the national average in places including:
Blackburn
Middlesbrough
Hartlepool
North Lincolnshire
Corby
Mansfield
Tameside
Wycombe"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56664180
When I mean European neighbours I meant the governments.
Just imagine in a fortnight Macron says AZN causes strokes in the under 40s based on a very small number, are we going to ignore it, or follow suit, I suspect the media and public pressure in the UK will make the latter unlikely.
A diseased mind, indeed. It was the same in all of the other books of his that I then went on to read
Frankly, what difference does it make to anything if the fraction of voters who were still willing to back Labour in 2019 like Nicola Sturgeon? If you asked them before that election whether or not they'd be happy to work with the SNP to get what they wanted then they'd already have been wildly enthusiastic - just like they'd have been keen to work with just about anybody else.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1379838092769513477?s=20
What on earth are they thinking?
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1379833914278182912?s=20
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1379835357403959300?s=20
https://twitter.com/r_mccormack/status/1379834859145863168?s=21
Narrator: Kenny MacAskill would not be better suited.
Litmus test of my WhatsApp group was pretty unbothered, the main concern was this leading to a delay in unlockdown but then being reassured that it wouldn't make a difference.
I'd be shocked if there was any medium or long term damage to trust in any vaccines because of this.
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1379840083151454208?s=20
Either way I'm not sure it's as big a deal as you're making out. It isn't going to change the unlockdown schedule as phase 2 under 30s were due jabs in June anyway and in all likelihood they wouldn't have got AZ either.
Those that are put off Oxford AZN but still want to be vaccinated - what are they going to do? When you book your appointments and rock up at the vaccination centre you don't know what you are going to have until you get there.
"For example, the observation that the expansion of the Universe was speeding up was attributed to a mysterious phenomenon known as dark energy. But some researchers have previously suggested it could be evidence of a fifth force.
"Prof Allanach has given the possible fifth force various names in his theoretical models. Among them are the "flavour force", the "third family hyperforce" and - most prosaic of all - "B minus L2"."
May the B minus L2 be with you?
Hmm. Prefer Flavour Force
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1379814326928818177
(Yes, I do live alone, and yes I have been shielding.)
I hate to go all Theresa May - Nothing Has Changed.
Aside from the cold logic of risk/benefit ratios, in terms of human psychology there will be a benefit of being able to say to my elderly relatives/shielding friends 'yes we've all been vaccinated', and see them relax somewhat when eventually we're able to visit them indoors.
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/tory-hopeful-condemned-for-branding-mps-conversion-to-judaism-a-con/
I wonder whether this implies that the dose should be reduced for younger recipients?
"I think the work of John Constable is wildly over rated" Sturgeon on Art
"Taggart is better than Morse" -Sturgeon on tv detectives
"Bagpipes are easier on the ear than God Save The Queen" Sturgeon on Music
"I am noooo a big reader, but you cannae whack a Rebus" Sturgeon on Literature
"Andy Robertson and Kieran Tierney are my favourites" Sturgeon on Premier League Footballers
Is the question supposed to be about one of these or something else. Does YouGov know? Does anyone. Do responders just guess?
My own answers would be : No. Yes. Fairly yes.
This is from the NRCC website
https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/1379815282579972097
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QECEv3ERyg0