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The extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 7 in General
imageThe extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon – politicalbetting.com

The above chart is from the latest YouGov poll and shows the extraordinary range of views on whether those sampled had a favourable or unfavourable view of Nicola Sturgeon.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    Test
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 7
    Might have an impact if it looks like a hung Parliament in 2024.

    Assuming she and/or the Union last that long.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 1,319
    Not much of a plague if we spurn our noses at a vaccine with only an (unproven) one-in-a-million risk of death.

    This crisis’s goose has been shot, plucked and is roasting nicely in the oven.

    Time to move on.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    A "with" of sexism? Maybe a "whiff"?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,971
    moonshine said:

    Not much of a plague if we spurn our noses at a vaccine with only an (unproven) one-in-a-million risk of death.

    This crisis’s goose has been shot, plucked and is roasting nicely in the oven.

    Time to move on.

    Also if the government are now admittign anyone under 30 has such a small risk from covid then why are we insisting kids wear fkin masks at school ? Idiots
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    edited April 7
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    DavidL said:

    A "with" of sexism? Maybe a "whiff"?

    A problem of using voice recognition rather typing. Thanks
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Based on that, SLAB to overperform and SCons to underperform expectations and polling.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,727
    That Tory voters are so hostile and the extent of it is also something of a surprise. It reflects the age and gender splits in the Tory and Leave votes.

    I think Mike may have cause and effect reversed. That Tory voters are so hostile to a left-wing nationalist who wants to break up the union Tory voters tend to believe in (I don't) and has spent years attacking Tories . . . is surely entirely predictable.

    The age and gender splits probably reflect the Tory and leave votes, not the other way around.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    On topic - not sure what the value is in the popularity of a nation level politician in the wider UK?

    Repost

    England CFR

    The data is getting so noisy that the 7 day average may be doing more harm than good.... the convergence for the older groups in much clearer in the un-averaged plot.

    image
    image

    This is interesting since some thought we might see a reversal - i.e. CRF being dominated by the unvaccinated. Clearly the effect of vaccines is still increasing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    Based on that, SLAB to overperform and SCons to underperform expectations and polling.
    I think that is very likely
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    When the option is Nicola is on every TV screen for our 2 minutes of hate in an independent Scotland as advertised in the latest SNP PPB I think I will politely decline, thanks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    The Alba Party’s Alex Salmond is rated lower than Boris Johnson by Scottish voters. Just 9% say they are satisfied with Salmond, while 27% say the same of Johnson. 64% say they are dissatisfied with Salmond, and an identical proportion say the same of Johnson.

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/snp-retains-strong-lead-independence-dominates-voters-concerns
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 5,378

    DavidL said:

    A "with" of sexism? Maybe a "whiff"?

    A problem of using voice recognition rather typing. Thanks
    Are you now orbiting the earth and pondering us mere mortals? I can see you as a John Hurt like figure from 'First Contact'.

    PS. If you have Jodie Fosters phone number...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    That Tory voters are so hostile and the extent of it is also something of a surprise. It reflects the age and gender splits in the Tory and Leave votes.

    I think Mike may have cause and effect reversed. That Tory voters are so hostile to a left-wing nationalist who wants to break up the union Tory voters tend to believe in (I don't) and has spent years attacking Tories . . . is surely entirely predictable.

    The age and gender splits probably reflect the Tory and leave votes, not the other way around.

    Tory voters are more likely to support the break up the Union to ensure they get what they want.

    Brexit worth letting Scots go, say 75% of Tory Leave voters in England

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-worth-letting-scots-go-say-three-quarters-of-tory-leave-voters-in-england-7c5zpcmrv
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758

    Based on that, SLAB to overperform and SCons to underperform expectations and polling.
    Yes, I have backed Lab as runner up already. I think Sarwar will have a good election. Voting SLAB is the best way for most Scots to put two fingers up to both Westminster and Holyrood.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    On topic. If anyone in Scotland thinks the British PM will gain support by "playing nice" with Nicola in independence negotiations......"CTA? Nukes on the Clyde" "Customs Union? Nukes on the Clyde" "Currency Union? Foxtrot Oscar"......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    Based on that, SLAB to overperform and SCons to underperform expectations and polling.
    I think that is very likely
    I agree. Sadly, the Tories are returning to a lower base without Ruth to humanise them in the eyes of the electorate. From a Unionist perspective I am hoping that Labour picks up some of the damage. Ross is not looking a great choice right now.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,971
    edited April 7
    Most tories (as in die hard ones) are unionists and hence are not going to like any SNP politicians regardless of gender - It is not sexism FFS
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,450
    I believe that at least 1 of the recent independence polls has shown indy now being more popular with women than men.

    A huge turnaround from 2014
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758

    That Tory voters are so hostile and the extent of it is also something of a surprise. It reflects the age and gender splits in the Tory and Leave votes.

    I think Mike may have cause and effect reversed. That Tory voters are so hostile to a left-wing nationalist who wants to break up the union Tory voters tend to believe in (I don't) and has spent years attacking Tories . . . is surely entirely predictable.

    The age and gender splits probably reflect the Tory and leave votes, not the other way around.

    Yes, I think that too. Women are more likely to vote Lab than Con on average, so the effect would shrink or disappear if corrected for politics.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    On topic. If anyone in Scotland thinks the British PM will gain support by "playing nice" with Nicola in independence negotiations......"CTA? Nukes on the Clyde" "Customs Union? Nukes on the Clyde" "Currency Union? Foxtrot Oscar"......

    I am pretty sure that rUK would be every bit as nice as the EU were to us. Pretty sure. No guarantees of course.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 161
    I remember participating in the 2015 general election in a borders town. The mention of her name and having influence on labour in Westminster had people in a rage. The perception of a weak Labour government pushed around by Nicola and the SNP was far more damaging to Ed Miliband than his capacity to eat a bacon sandwich.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    On topic. If anyone in Scotland thinks the British PM will gain support by "playing nice" with Nicola in independence negotiations......"CTA? Nukes on the Clyde" "Customs Union? Nukes on the Clyde" "Currency Union? Foxtrot Oscar"......

    If I was advising Better Together or Boris Johnson I'd tell them to keep on to solely focus on the currency and other things like Sterlingisation.

    It is the one thing that really resonates, the pound in your pocket.

    Plus I suspect any UK government will publicly tell the markets that we will honour our debts if an IScotland won't honour their share of the debt.

    That will shoot a few foxes and causes problems for the Nats in their campaigns.

    But my colleagues and I don't know what we're talking about given looking at currency, debt, and legal related issues forms part of our day jobs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    Thanks Mike - interesting header.

    ---------------
    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    I'm not sure these graphs showing the risk during a 16 week period are very helpful. They give a wrongly inflated view of the risks from the vaccine.

    Needs a politician to say "we can't stay locked down forever" so pay attention to those high exposure figures.
    The 'low exposure risk' graph implied the risk from the vaccine was higher than the risk from covid, which is an absurd misrepresentation. We know covid isn't going to go away so they should assume that people will be exposed to covid at some point and base the risk/benefit profile on that.
    Completely disagreed. It isn't misrepresented since Covid is going away, we won't all be exposed to Covid at some point - we'll be able to get an alternative vaccine at some point, or simply not be exposed to the virus ourselves. Yes the virus will still be there, but it won't get everyone, like HIV or other viruses.
    This is the slide I'm talking about. It implies that the risk from the vaccination is greater than the risk from covid for 20-29 year olds, but it's based on them having a low risk of being exposed to it. This is disastrous messaging because it will encourage people not to get vaccinated at all.

    image
    Hang on, the "every 16 weeks" disclaimer means they aren't exactly comparing like with like...

    It is going to be a 'low exposure risk' for a lot longer than that, surely.
    No because everyone ought to be able to get access to an alternative vaccine within 16 weeks.
    Ah, true, assuming this doesn't put people off completely. Does that mean they are assuming a 16 week delay, then? I do hope not.

    I also hope the alternative vaccine doesn't turn out to have the same issues. Then what?
    No actually they're saying there won't be any delay.
    That will *really* piss off Mons. Macaron if it happens.

    Another curve ball, and les Rosbifs have planned for *that* as well.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,363
    I'm not sure that women's greater positivity towards Ms Sturgeon is necessarily down to sexism. Maybe they genuinely think she's doing a good job?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042
    Some wild number crunching on the antivax thing.

    Let's say 1,000,000 people under 30 now refuse any jab, out of anti vaxxery (and anti vaxxery is much more common in the young) . If 10% of them get Covid that's 100,000 cases, obvs, and we can therefore expect 1% of them to go to hospital: 1,000 people.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death


    It won't crash the NHS but that's a lot of suffering, and maybe 100 of them will die. And, of course, Long Covid

    This, however, assumes no co-morbidities, because if you are 25 with diabetes your risks are waaaay higher

    However maybe my 1m figure is insane, and of course Covid is not prevalent. At the moment. In the UK. We might be fine

    On the other hand, anti vaxxery might now be boosted across all ages and communities, and 1m might even be a conservative estimate, we could get 2m extra people not having any jab, and a lot of them will be much more at risk of hospitalisation and death, the MHRA might have just killed 1,000 people and saved 10?

    It seems to me they have taken a decision which kinda makes sense on slender logical grounds, from a certain perspective, but which does not take into account human psychology. Perhaps that is not in their remit

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 7
    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,107
    My impression, from South of the Border, is that Labour is the second choice of most of the voters under Sarwar.
    Is this true?
    And, if so, that does augur well for a second place, picking up votes from underperforming Parties.*

    *And Labour looking at second in Scotland as an achievement. Gosh!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758

    I remember participating in the 2015 general election in a borders town. The mention of her name and having influence on labour in Westminster had people in a rage. The perception of a weak Labour government pushed around by Nicola and the SNP was far more damaging to Ed Miliband than his capacity to eat a bacon sandwich.

    Yes, but 6 years is a long time in politics and we know her better now. A lot of Britons are finding the SNP a more effective opposition than Labour. For a lot on the Centre Left Sturgeon has detoxified the SNP south of the border, and it shows in the polling in the header.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Because they vaxed more young people first

    Next question
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    edited April 7

    On topic. If anyone in Scotland thinks the British PM will gain support by "playing nice" with Nicola in independence negotiations......"CTA? Nukes on the Clyde" "Customs Union? Nukes on the Clyde" "Currency Union? Foxtrot Oscar"......

    If we’ve learned anything from the negotiations with the EU, then the first agreement will have only the debt and the border in it. Once those two issues have been resolved, we can move onto the trade agreement. Currency is entirely a matter for the Scots to decide.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    DavidL said:

    On topic. If anyone in Scotland thinks the British PM will gain support by "playing nice" with Nicola in independence negotiations......"CTA? Nukes on the Clyde" "Customs Union? Nukes on the Clyde" "Currency Union? Foxtrot Oscar"......

    I am pretty sure that rUK would be every bit as nice as the EU were to us. Pretty sure. No guarantees of course.
    How will you be working in the ‘we’re going to fuck you over’ with your positive case for the Union messaging?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    I'm not sure that women's greater positivity towards Ms Sturgeon is necessarily down to sexism. Maybe they genuinely think she's doing a good job?

    You cannot be serious.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Alistair said:

    I believe that at least 1 of the recent independence polls has shown indy now being more popular with women than men.

    A huge turnaround from 2014

    There's this theory (based on some polling at the time) that showed Scottish women kinda liked* David Cameron but really don't like Boris Johnson.

    *Liked might not be the right adjective, but they knew whilst they didn't agree with him politically, they thought he was a nice man who put his family and kids first, something you can't say about Boris Johnson.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    edited April 7
    While not remotely a fan of UvdL, nether man comes well out of this.....

    https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1379810141126676488?s=20
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 5,378

    While not remotely a fan of UvdL, nether man comes well out of this.....

    https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1379810141126676488?s=20

    They've both been previously ripped off by their tailors anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231

    I'm not sure that women's greater positivity towards Ms Sturgeon is necessarily down to sexism. Maybe they genuinely think she's doing a good job?

    Could be she's seen as standing up for females vs males.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    edited April 7
    Reading the headline I thought the article was going to be examples, and analysis, of Nicola Sturgeon's wide ranging opinions about fashion, art, sport, life in general. What a disappointment!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042

    While not remotely a fan of UvdL, nether man comes well out of this.....

    https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1379810141126676488?s=20

    Erdogan is obviously a prick, but Michel actually looks worse. The way he eagerly leapt into the chair, leaving her standing. Simple bad manners, and non-gallantry, laced with male chauvinism. Not pleasant
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    DavidL said:

    On topic. If anyone in Scotland thinks the British PM will gain support by "playing nice" with Nicola in independence negotiations......"CTA? Nukes on the Clyde" "Customs Union? Nukes on the Clyde" "Currency Union? Foxtrot Oscar"......

    I am pretty sure that rUK would be every bit as nice as the EU were to us. Pretty sure. No guarantees of course.
    How will you be working in the ‘we’re going to fuck you over’ with your positive case for the Union messaging?
    I will point out that those who claimed that Brexit was going to be the easiest deal in history (I was not one of them) proved to be rather optimistic and that part of the price of being independent would be not being able to rely on others within the UK as we do right now and have done very heavily throughout this pandemic.

    We really are stronger together and you frankly have to be bordering on mentally ill to think that independence is the issue facing Scotland right now. (ok that bit is maybe not quite so positive)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Blimey, this is a thread, and the reason they stopped it?

    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1379834181694406657

    Before he could ship in more, the Soviet Academy of Sciences heard about his plans to inseminate women in Africa without consent, and all support for the project was taken away.

    on the grounds that it "[M]ight undermine the trust of Africans in European researchers and doctors and make problematic any further expeditions of Russian scientists to Africa". Rather than, you know, basic ethics.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    Might have an impact if it looks like a hung Parliament in 2024.

    Assuming she and/or the Union last that long.

    I'm not at all sure that it matters who the SNP leader is, from the specific point of view of voters in England. Scottish nationalism is going to go down like a cup of cold sick regardless.

    Prediction: if it looks like there's any realistic chance of the Tories losing their majority at the next election then they will go to town on the Lab-Nat Pact, just like they did against Ed Miliband. I am assuming that the poll numbers that OGH has posted are from a GB-wide survey, which will therefore mask regional differences - the SNP might not do too badly in many places that Labour can still rely on, such as Islington, but the flip side of that is they are absolutely loathed in much of provincial England. The Conservatives can and will weaponize this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051

    While not remotely a fan of UvdL, nether man comes well out of this.....

    https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1379810141126676488?s=20

    Or they only expected on head of state (as is common), and Charles Michel didn't think about what he was doing when he lunged for it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,107
    Carnyx said:

    I'm not sure that women's greater positivity towards Ms Sturgeon is necessarily down to sexism. Maybe they genuinely think she's doing a good job?

    Could be she's seen as standing up for females vs males.
    As was UvdL in Turkey!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Did the EMA ever ban it? I thought it was the national governments that lost the plot. The EMA appear to have acted sensibly throughout.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Vaccination policies that vaccinated young people first. No, really. Go look.

    Mind bending doesn't cover it

  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042

    Blimey, this is a thread, and the reason they stopped it?

    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1379834181694406657

    Before he could ship in more, the Soviet Academy of Sciences heard about his plans to inseminate women in Africa without consent, and all support for the project was taken away.

    on the grounds that it "[M]ight undermine the trust of Africans in European researchers and doctors and make problematic any further expeditions of Russian scientists to Africa". Rather than, you know, basic ethics.

    I believe this unsavoury slab of Soviet science features heavily in one novel by the thriller writer Tom Knox, who once posted here under a ludicrously false name. Indeed there is a notorious orang-utan-human rape scene in the book. Quite distasteful
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Vaccination policies that vaccinated young people first. No, really. Go look.

    Mind bending doesn't cover it

    Yeah, they said it was for under-65s only. So not surprising they pick up something that affects the young more.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Do you think European countries start/stop varying positions on who should get AZ has saved lives, or cost them?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,376
    "Where are Britain's loneliest places in lockdown?

    The ONS cautions against reading too much into individual local figures, but levels of "often or always" lonely are double the national average in places including:

    Blackburn
    Middlesbrough
    Hartlepool
    North Lincolnshire
    Corby
    Mansfield
    Tameside
    Wycombe"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56664180
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    edited April 7
    Leon said:

    Blimey, this is a thread, and the reason they stopped it?

    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1379834181694406657

    Before he could ship in more, the Soviet Academy of Sciences heard about his plans to inseminate women in Africa without consent, and all support for the project was taken away.

    on the grounds that it "[M]ight undermine the trust of Africans in European researchers and doctors and make problematic any further expeditions of Russian scientists to Africa". Rather than, you know, basic ethics.

    I believe this unsavoury slab of Soviet science features heavily in one novel by the thriller writer Tom Knox, who once posted here under a ludicrously false name. Indeed there is a notorious orang-utan-human rape scene in the book. Quite distasteful
    The author clearly has a sick mind, to come up with such depictions.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443

    Alistair said:

    I believe that at least 1 of the recent independence polls has shown indy now being more popular with women than men.

    A huge turnaround from 2014

    There's this theory (based on some polling at the time) that showed Scottish women kinda liked* David Cameron but really don't like Boris Johnson.

    *Liked might not be the right adjective, but they knew whilst they didn't agree with him politically, they thought he was a nice man who put his family and kids first, something you can't say about Boris Johnson.
    Tbf BJ always puts the Johnson family first, then whichever is his current nuclear unit. The latter can be quite short lived of course.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    tlg86 said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Did the EMA ever ban it? I thought it was the national governments that lost the plot. The EMA appear to have acted sensibly throughout.
    They kept (and still do) maintain it is safe to use.

    When I mean European neighbours I meant the governments.

    Just imagine in a fortnight Macron says AZN causes strokes in the under 40s based on a very small number, are we going to ignore it, or follow suit, I suspect the media and public pressure in the UK will make the latter unlikely.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Blimey, this is a thread, and the reason they stopped it?

    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1379834181694406657

    Before he could ship in more, the Soviet Academy of Sciences heard about his plans to inseminate women in Africa without consent, and all support for the project was taken away.

    on the grounds that it "[M]ight undermine the trust of Africans in European researchers and doctors and make problematic any further expeditions of Russian scientists to Africa". Rather than, you know, basic ethics.

    I believe this unsavoury slab of Soviet science features heavily in one novel by the thriller writer Tom Knox, who once posted here under a ludicrously false name. Indeed there is a notorious orang-utan-human rape scene in the book. Quite distasteful
    The author clearly has a sick mind, to come up with such depictions.
    And yet Leon has nothing to do with the famous travel writer Sean Thomas...
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,860
    You'd think Remain voters would be against populist Nationalism.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Do you think European countries start/stop varying positions on who should get AZ has saved lives, or cost them?
    Cost them, I'm talking about if a new issue arises, it puts the UK government in an awkward position.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Blimey, this is a thread, and the reason they stopped it?

    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1379834181694406657

    Before he could ship in more, the Soviet Academy of Sciences heard about his plans to inseminate women in Africa without consent, and all support for the project was taken away.

    on the grounds that it "[M]ight undermine the trust of Africans in European researchers and doctors and make problematic any further expeditions of Russian scientists to Africa". Rather than, you know, basic ethics.

    I believe this unsavoury slab of Soviet science features heavily in one novel by the thriller writer Tom Knox, who once posted here under a ludicrously false name. Indeed there is a notorious orang-utan-human rape scene in the book. Quite distasteful
    The author clearly has a sick mind, to come up with such depictions.
    I confess I had to put the book away, overcome with nausea; it was never reopened

    A diseased mind, indeed. It was the same in all of the other books of his that I then went on to read
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758
    Leon said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Because they vaxed more young people first

    Next question
    Norway spotted it when they had immunised only 450 000 people. Not all were young.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic. If anyone in Scotland thinks the British PM will gain support by "playing nice" with Nicola in independence negotiations......"CTA? Nukes on the Clyde" "Customs Union? Nukes on the Clyde" "Currency Union? Foxtrot Oscar"......

    I am pretty sure that rUK would be every bit as nice as the EU were to us. Pretty sure. No guarantees of course.
    How will you be working in the ‘we’re going to fuck you over’ with your positive case for the Union messaging?
    I will point out that those who claimed that Brexit was going to be the easiest deal in history (I was not one of them) proved to be rather optimistic and that part of the price of being independent would be not being able to rely on others within the UK as we do right now and have done very heavily throughout this pandemic.

    We really are stronger together and you frankly have to be bordering on mentally ill to think that independence is the issue facing Scotland right now. (ok that bit is maybe not quite so positive)
    Ah, the classic 2014 ‘can I persuade you mentally ill Nazis of the error of your ways’ gambit. Looking forward to it!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    Alistair said:

    I believe that at least 1 of the recent independence polls has shown indy now being more popular with women than men.

    A huge turnaround from 2014

    There's this theory (based on some polling at the time) that showed Scottish women kinda liked* David Cameron but really don't like Boris Johnson.

    *Liked might not be the right adjective, but they knew whilst they didn't agree with him politically, they thought he was a nice man who put his family and kids first, something you can't say about Boris Johnson.
    Tbf BJ always puts the Johnson family first, then whichever is his current nuclear unit. The latter can be quite short lived of course.
    I've checked my messages and the exact term was 'In 2014 Scottish voters just couldn't get angry at David Cameron being their PM, he just didn't elicit that response, they just saw him as a nice, competent family fan, not some malign force.'
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    Foxy said:

    I remember participating in the 2015 general election in a borders town. The mention of her name and having influence on labour in Westminster had people in a rage. The perception of a weak Labour government pushed around by Nicola and the SNP was far more damaging to Ed Miliband than his capacity to eat a bacon sandwich.

    Yes, but 6 years is a long time in politics and we know her better now. A lot of Britons are finding the SNP a more effective opposition than Labour. For a lot on the Centre Left Sturgeon has detoxified the SNP south of the border, and it shows in the polling in the header.
    It's not committed left-liberals that the Opposition needs to win over to start taking the Tory majority apart though, is it?

    Frankly, what difference does it make to anything if the fraction of voters who were still willing to back Labour in 2019 like Nicola Sturgeon? If you asked them before that election whether or not they'd be happy to work with the SNP to get what they wanted then they'd already have been wildly enthusiastic - just like they'd have been keen to work with just about anybody else.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231

    Might have an impact if it looks like a hung Parliament in 2024.

    Assuming she and/or the Union last that long.

    I'm not at all sure that it matters who the SNP leader is, from the specific point of view of voters in England. Scottish nationalism is going to go down like a cup of cold sick regardless.

    Prediction: if it looks like there's any realistic chance of the Tories losing their majority at the next election then they will go to town on the Lab-Nat Pact, just like they did against Ed Miliband. I am assuming that the poll numbers that OGH has posted are from a GB-wide survey, which will therefore mask regional differences - the SNP might not do too badly in many places that Labour can still rely on, such as Islington, but the flip side of that is they are absolutely loathed in much of provincial England. The Conservatives can and will weaponize this.
    You mean they don't and haven't already?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Andy_JS said:

    "Where are Britain's loneliest places in lockdown?

    The ONS cautions against reading too much into individual local figures, but levels of "often or always" lonely are double the national average in places including:

    Blackburn
    Middlesbrough
    Hartlepool
    North Lincolnshire
    Corby
    Mansfield
    Tameside
    Wycombe"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56664180

    Hartlepool? A few hundred volunteers for the by election should soon sort that one out!
  • Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Because they vaxed more young people first

    Next question
    Norway spotted it when they had immunised only 450 000 people. Not all were young.
    Did the UK spot it early, but not mention it publically until further analysis had been undertaken and the appropriate level of risk identified?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Because they vaxed more young people first

    Next question
    Norway spotted it when they had immunised only 450 000 people. Not all were young.
    The number of cases was still very, very small in this country, all the same. OTOH Covid victims were being packed off to morgues on an industrial scale. Perhaps stopping and starting eight times to investigate vanishingly rare side effects that may or may not have been to do with the vaccine simply wasn't thought to be a very good idea?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    tlg86 said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Did the EMA ever ban it? I thought it was the national governments that lost the plot. The EMA appear to have acted sensibly throughout.
    They kept (and still do) maintain it is safe to use.

    When I mean European neighbours I meant the governments.

    Just imagine in a fortnight Macron says AZN causes strokes in the under 40s based on a very small number, are we going to ignore it, or follow suit, I suspect the media and public pressure in the UK will make the latter unlikely.
    If it was Macron, it would probably be ignored. An actual health regulator would be a different matter.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231
    edited April 7
    Leon said:
    Did he use comparable populations? AZ vaccine recipients (edit: to date) are a very different population from the UK general population.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    edited April 7
    Lol

    https://twitter.com/r_mccormack/status/1379834859145863168?s=21

    Narrator: Kenny MacAskill would not be better suited.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:
    Did he use comparable populations? AZ vaccine recipients (edit: to date) are a very different population from the UK general population.
    He mentions that later. It doesn't detract from the apparent insanity of withdrawing it on this basis, but maybe he has more to say...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Leon said:
    This is what they were saying a month ago too. That there had been cases but they were less than you would expect in the general population over the period concerned as was the overall incidence. Presumably that has now changed, at least for younger people? There seems to be a suggestion that it is a particular kind of clot which is less common generally.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758
    RobD said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Vaccination policies that vaccinated young people first. No, really. Go look.

    Mind bending doesn't cover it

    Yeah, they said it was for under-65s only. So not surprising they pick up something that affects the young more.
    I don't think the slides set did say that the clotting problems were in the young. The oldest was 79. It was just that the balance of risks was different in the young.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    Carnyx said:

    Might have an impact if it looks like a hung Parliament in 2024.

    Assuming she and/or the Union last that long.

    I'm not at all sure that it matters who the SNP leader is, from the specific point of view of voters in England. Scottish nationalism is going to go down like a cup of cold sick regardless.

    Prediction: if it looks like there's any realistic chance of the Tories losing their majority at the next election then they will go to town on the Lab-Nat Pact, just like they did against Ed Miliband. I am assuming that the poll numbers that OGH has posted are from a GB-wide survey, which will therefore mask regional differences - the SNP might not do too badly in many places that Labour can still rely on, such as Islington, but the flip side of that is they are absolutely loathed in much of provincial England. The Conservatives can and will weaponize this.
    You mean they don't and haven't already?
    They didn't major on it in 2017 and 2019. The former because Theresa May's campaign was staggeringly incompetent and ended up being all about her mistakes, and the latter because it was all about plugging Brexit and the toxicity of Jeremy Corbyn. The SNP will doubtless, however, be deployed as a stick with which to beat Keir Starmer if it is thought to be needed next time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042
    Whew. Some minor news that has gone unnoticed. No biggie

    https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1379840083151454208?s=20
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Leon said:
    But if that rate is higher than the background for younger ages the risk factors have changed. As I have said, I think it would have been done better within the auto provisioning system we have for vaccine doses with under 30s in group 2 and phase 2 simply excluded from the AZ provision, it's a one line change in the code.

    Either way I'm not sure it's as big a deal as you're making out. It isn't going to change the unlockdown schedule as phase 2 under 30s were due jabs in June anyway and in all likelihood they wouldn't have got AZ either.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Vaccination policies that vaccinated young people first. No, really. Go look.

    Mind bending doesn't cover it

    Yeah, they said it was for under-65s only. So not surprising they pick up something that affects the young more.
    I don't think the slides set did say that the clotting problems were in the young. The oldest was 79. It was just that the balance of risks was different in the young.
    The risk curve implied in the slides is very heavily skewed to the younger cohort. So unless you do lots of vaccinations there, you won't see a spike in the data.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Vaccination policies that vaccinated young people first. No, really. Go look.

    Mind bending doesn't cover it

    Yeah, they said it was for under-65s only. So not surprising they pick up something that affects the young more.
    I don't think the slides set did say that the clotting problems were in the young. The oldest was 79. It was just that the balance of risks was different in the young.
    No, the risk was lower amongst the older recipients in the slides.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471
    MaxPB said:

    Final point on vaccines and approvals - I think the public will simply shrug it off. Trust in vaccines here is already extremely high and enough people know friends and family who have had a vaccine and can't wait to have it.

    Litmus test of my WhatsApp group was pretty unbothered, the main concern was this leading to a delay in unlockdown but then being reassured that it wouldn't make a difference.

    I'd be shocked if there was any medium or long term damage to trust in any vaccines because of this.

    I think that's right.

    Those that are put off Oxford AZN but still want to be vaccinated - what are they going to do? When you book your appointments and rock up at the vaccination centre you don't know what you are going to have until you get there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Leon said:

    Whew. Some minor news that has gone unnoticed. No biggie

    https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1379840083151454208?s=20

    Is this something to do with the distortions caused by the SNP's adoration of the blessed Nicola? Remarkable that they seemed to have picked up traces of this even in the US.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,042
    "A fifth fundamental force might help explain some of the big puzzles about the Universe that have exercised scientists in recent decades.

    "For example, the observation that the expansion of the Universe was speeding up was attributed to a mysterious phenomenon known as dark energy. But some researchers have previously suggested it could be evidence of a fifth force.

    "Prof Allanach has given the possible fifth force various names in his theoretical models. Among them are the "flavour force", the "third family hyperforce" and - most prosaic of all - "B minus L2"."


    May the B minus L2 be with you?

    Hmm. Prefer Flavour Force
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    "Nice trade agreement you have there. Shame if someone petitioned the German constitutional court with a well-written complaint..."

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1379814326928818177
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    Lol

    https://twitter.com/r_mccormack/status/1379834859145863168?s=21

    Narrator: Kenny MacAskill would not be better suited.

    If Kenny MacAskill is the answer, well it writes itself doesn't it?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    edited April 7
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Where are Britain's loneliest places in lockdown?

    The ONS cautions against reading too much into individual local figures, but levels of "often or always" lonely are double the national average in places including:

    Blackburn
    Middlesbrough
    Hartlepool
    North Lincolnshire
    Corby
    Mansfield
    Tameside
    Wycombe"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56664180

    Hartlepool? A few hundred volunteers for the by election should soon sort that one out!
    I'd call bullshit on the whole comparison kartoffel. The differences are pretty marginal, and the numbers are pretty small. And the question was of the "do you feel lonely in 7 days" type.

    (Yes, I do live alone, and yes I have been shielding.)

    image
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057

    tlg86 said:

    So here's the thing.

    Why did our European neighbours manage to pick up the clot issue well before us?

    and

    If they spot any other areas of concern before us will we automatically follow them before we have our own results in?

    Did the EMA ever ban it? I thought it was the national governments that lost the plot. The EMA appear to have acted sensibly throughout.
    They kept (and still do) maintain it is safe to use.

    When I mean European neighbours I meant the governments.

    Just imagine in a fortnight Macron says AZN causes strokes in the under 40s based on a very small number, are we going to ignore it, or follow suit, I suspect the media and public pressure in the UK will make the latter unlikely.
    Hahahahaha. Ha.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    Final point on vaccines and approvals - I think the public will simply shrug it off. Trust in vaccines here is already extremely high and enough people know friends and family who have had a vaccine and can't wait to have it.

    Litmus test of my WhatsApp group was pretty unbothered, the main concern was this leading to a delay in unlockdown but then being reassured that it wouldn't make a difference.

    I'd be shocked if there was any medium or long term damage to trust in any vaccines because of this.

    I think that's right.

    Those that are put off Oxford AZN but still want to be vaccinated - what are they going to do? When you book your appointments and rock up at the vaccination centre you don't know what you are going to have until you get there.
    I just don't think AZ is going to figure into the mix of first doses from the middle to end of this month anyway. All of the supply will be needed for second doses.

    I hate to go all Theresa May - Nothing Has Changed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,727
    edited April 7

    While not remotely a fan of UvdL, nether man comes well out of this.....

    https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1379810141126676488?s=20

    I don't think this is Erdogan's fault. Its surely on the EU to determine who their President is and they get the chair. If VDL is President then Michel had no business sitting there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    "Nice trade agreement you have there. Shame if someone petitioned the German constitutional court with a well-written complaint..."

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1379814326928818177

    AEP has to be behind this somewhere. He has predicted at least the last 1,000 devastating decisions by the German Constitutional Court.
  • PapillonPapillon Posts: 5
    FPT: Thanks for your thoughts @Foxy and @DavidL I have never considered refusing a vaccine and still wouldn't. The risk of death to me is low in either scenario. But I like to know as much as possible (hence the PB lurking).

    Aside from the cold logic of risk/benefit ratios, in terms of human psychology there will be a benefit of being able to say to my elderly relatives/shielding friends 'yes we've all been vaccinated', and see them relax somewhat when eventually we're able to visit them indoors.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Papillon said:

    FPT: Thanks for your thoughts @Foxy and @DavidL I have never considered refusing a vaccine and still wouldn't. The risk of death to me is low in either scenario. But I like to know as much as possible (hence the PB lurking).

    Aside from the cold logic of risk/benefit ratios, in terms of human psychology there will be a benefit of being able to say to my elderly relatives/shielding friends 'yes we've all been vaccinated', and see them relax somewhat when eventually we're able to visit them indoors.

    Completely agree with that and if the government proves brave enough to go against the consensus on PB and introduce vaccination certificates you want one.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,363
    edited April 7
    On the AZ vaccine: there have been quite a lot of reports of younger people getting more short-term side effects than older people - mostly mild and temporary, of course. Presumably this is because their immune systems react more strongly. There is also speculation that the rare blood clotting might be caused by an immune response attacking blood platelets, if I understand correctly.

    I wonder whether this implies that the dose should be reduced for younger recipients?
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    On Topic

    "I think the work of John Constable is wildly over rated" Sturgeon on Art
    "Taggart is better than Morse" -Sturgeon on tv detectives
    "Bagpipes are easier on the ear than God Save The Queen" Sturgeon on Music
    "I am noooo a big reader, but you cannae whack a Rebus" Sturgeon on Literature
    "Andy Robertson and Kieran Tierney are my favourites" Sturgeon on Premier League Footballers
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,957
    The question in the poll has at least three completely divergent meanings. Do you have a favourable view of NS in respect of agreeing with her politics; or thinking she is an effective and able leader; or thinking that she is the sort of person you warm to personally.

    Is the question supposed to be about one of these or something else. Does YouGov know? Does anyone. Do responders just guess?

    My own answers would be : No. Yes. Fairly yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    The grift has spread to the wider GOP.

    This is from the NRCC website

    https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/1379815282579972097
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,057
    Apparently the MHRA are set to approve this next week...

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QECEv3ERyg0
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