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Former Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillam, dies after long illness – politicalbetting.com

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    RobD said:

    How was it leaked? They have a direct quote from the PM!
    I'm referring to the reporting in general over the weekend and not that specific quotation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    TOPPING said:

    I looked at a copy of today and yesterday's Daily Telegraph.

    Boy are they anti vaccine passport and pro unlocking.

    Haven't seen the DM but the DT must account for a fair few Cons voters.
    Tim Stanley absolutely blistering on covid vaxport nonsense in DT today.

    Maybe it is only a very angry but small number of folk who are up in arms about this but thank god there are some of us not prepared to let our government take this country down that route.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424

    Do you know the meaning of the word "may"?

    "may" does not mean "would".
    I was merely, politely, answering your question: “ Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?” with the information, which you seemed to be lacking, that Boris had said he might backed up by this morning’s press that he would. Why you can’t understand that some people, therefore, had a reasonable expectation of hearing more just seems odd.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    I looked at a copy of today and yesterday's Daily Telegraph.

    Boy are they anti vaccine passport and pro unlocking.

    Haven't seen the DM but the DT must account for a fair few Cons voters.
    There does seem, on the face of it, to be a discrepancy between the upvotes/comments on the popular right wing newspaper sites and the opinion polls, where all is hunky dory for Boris.

    We need some real elections.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Andy_JS said:

    Cannabis causes mental illness in many people. Not a good idea IMO.
    Talking skunk there Andy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Here's a scenario.

    80%+ of adults get vaccinated, we unlock the economy, and the virus stays suppressed. Happy days.

    In September along comes a vaccine-avoiding variant and a new vaccine gets released. At that point the vaccine passport/certification is essentially acting as an age-based lockdown. If you're young and not yet vaccinated, you're in lockdown, but if you're old and have had your booster, you can do what you like.

    Is that what people want?

    It's ridiculous because the current government plan is to only vaccinate the 15m in groups 1-4 against variants. The vaccine passport doesn't make sense for variants unless the government is happy to instantly exclude 37m people from the economy.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Tim Stanley absolutely blistering on covid vaxport nonsense in DT today.

    Maybe it is only a very angry but small number of folk who are up in arms about this but thank god there are some of us not prepared to let our government take this country down that route.
    If the polls are correct, we are powerless to stop it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    I'm referring to the reporting in general over the weekend and not that specific quotation.
    Wouldn't be surprised if it was done to try and bounce them into a decision. Still, it wasn't a promise.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Modelling by Warwick University, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine (LSHTM) warned of a late summer surge after 'freedom day' in June which could rival levels seen this January when hospitals were nearly overwhelmed.

    What am I missing? This just doesn't sound plausible.

    I don't see how we go back to full football grounds in London if social distancing remains a thing. The grounds might be deemed safe (but behind the terraces??), but London Underground won't be.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    HYUFD said:

    Plus Boris of course
    Churchill? Don't Tories who were so up in arms at Joe Biden's alleged "disrespect" themselves bother to have WSC's graven image in their own inner sanctum? (Or is that sanctae or some such?)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited April 2021

    I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
    Agree. I do not doubt Nicola's philosophical commitment to independence, but it like our collective commitment to world peace and the abolition of poverty, at best it is slow progress and it isn't actually going to happen.

    If following Brexit the indy cause can't get polling at 60% or so - and they can't - it is hard to see it happening. To win a Ref2 they need to be at 60% or so now, because their actual case is so terrible they are bound to suffer losses in a campaign.

    Until the weather changes Nicola needs to keep this on the permanent horizon. (Hint: Christianity has been doing this about the second coming for 2000 years and it works fine).

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    There does seem, on the face of it, to be a discrepancy between the upvotes/comments on the popular right wing newspaper sites and the opinion polls, where all is hunky dory for Boris.

    We need some real elections.
    What will you do if the real elections tell the same story as the polls?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,268
    Andy_JS said:

    Cannabis causes mental illness in many people. Not a good idea IMO.
    It does indeed. Whether decriminalisation and treatment would be a better approach is moot though. Not that treatment is likely considering the state of Mental health in the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,072

    Churchill? Don't Tories who were so up in arms at Joe Biden's alleged "disrespect" themselves bother to have WSC's graven image in their own inner sanctum? (Or is that sanctae or some such?)
    We certainly have him up in Epping Forest too, especially as he was the former MP for Epping.

    Indeed Randolph Churchill is our Association Patron
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited April 2021
    Sad to hear of Dame Cheryl’s untimely passing. Condolences to her family and many friends, it appears she was well regarded across the political spectrum.

    Should be a safe by-election win for the government, but there’s an opportunity for the LDs to run them close with a good candidate.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Foxy said:

    It does indeed. Whether decriminalisation and treatment would be a better approach is moot though. Not that treatment is likely considering the state of Mental health in the UK.
    To be fair, someone I know was admitted to our local psychiatric unit and they got him sorted out (c.2003-04). He's done very well since.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    If the polls are correct, we are powerless to stop it.
    Take the DT and add the DM and that is imo quite a good window on the soul of the Cons voters. Opinion polls less so.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    Sorry to hear about the death of Cheryl Gillan. However, it could be a blessing in disguise for the Tories. They could install DRoss as candidate for the by-election. Even DRoss couldn’t lose a 16,000 majority, surely? And it gives them an opportunity to replace him in Scotland with someone less useless.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    If the polls are correct, we are powerless to stop it.
    C'mon. People can write some articulate, passionate posts on here and who knows. Might take off and change everything. Like Rosa Parks refusing to budge on the bus. Same thing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    I just came here to write almost the same.

    When there is such a good story to tell, why persist with being a gloomster?

    Another day of everyone breaking the rules today; and cases are through the floor.

    Who is going to test themselves twice a week for something that isn't circulating in the community?

    Strikes me that soon biz are just going to say to hell with it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    tlg86 said:

    Modelling by Warwick University, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine (LSHTM) warned of a late summer surge after 'freedom day' in June which could rival levels seen this January when hospitals were nearly overwhelmed.

    What am I missing? This just doesn't sound plausible.

    I don't see how we go back to full football grounds in London if social distancing remains a thing. The grounds might be deemed safe (but behind the terraces??), but London Underground won't be.
    It is, if you'll pardon the pun, goalpost moving. I've no Earthly idea how you're meant to get a repetition of January taking place when the vaccines - which we know are highly effective - will have been given to (at a rough guess) 90% of all people in Phase One, and more like 95% of the most vulnerable, and had at least three weeks to work by the end of this month. By the end of next month we'll have most likely given second doses to cohorts 1-4 and first doses to all the over 40s as well.

    With the vast reduction in hospitalisation risk, considerable disruption to chains of transmission, anything up to 30-40% of the unvaccinated thought to have contracted the disease (and therefore to have acquired natural immunity,) and - to put it bluntly - many of the most frail already having caught it and died, I just don't see where you get to another crisis as alleged by these models - especially when even May 17th won't see the back of masks, social distancing, and partitions and other enhanced hygiene precautions in hospitality.

    It sounds like the public health lobby trying to find excuses to keep us locked down as long and as tight as possible.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,333
    I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    What will you do if the real elections tell the same story as the polls?
    Well on the one hand TINO, while on the other maybe some will register a (non discernable) protest.

    Here we have the dilemma of there being no voice for people of a certain world view. Does it matter? No because democracy. But perhaps people will remember if and when alternatives (inter- and intra-party) present themselves.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Do my eyes deceive me, or is that the 5th increase in the Tory lead in a row since the vaccine bounce was declared officially over? :wink:

    Do my eyes deceive me, or is that the 5th increase in the Tory lead in a row since the vaccine bounce was declared officially over? :wink:

    Do my eyes deceive me, or is that the 5th increase in the Tory lead in a row since the vaccine bounce was declared officially over? :wink:
    Starmer has been pretty well invisible since Xmas , and many are now seeing him as too much of a 'nodding dog' rather than providing clear opposition.Bad timing for him given the imminence of the May elections.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    tlg86 said:

    Modelling by Warwick University, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine (LSHTM) warned of a late summer surge after 'freedom day' in June which could rival levels seen this January when hospitals were nearly overwhelmed.

    What am I missing? This just doesn't sound plausible.

    I don't see how we go back to full football grounds in London if social distancing remains a thing. The grounds might be deemed safe (but behind the terraces??), but London Underground won't be.
    They were also the team that predicted a daily peak of 4,000 deaths per day. They're one of those teams that desperately look for the worst case scenario and pretend it will definitely 100% happen and then get headlines of doom.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    I expect anti vaccine passport sentiment is broadly linked to those opposing having the vaccine itself. The view on here, pro vaccine, anti-vaccine passport is likely not that widely held - and of that view held more widely it'll be people opposing it before they themselves have been vaxxed.
    Personally my main concern is appropriate exemptions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I'm referring to the reporting in general over the weekend and not that specific quotation.
    Surely you're not so naive as to take press reports at face value?

    The press reports everything in the most clickbaity dramatic way possible. Only a naive simpleton would take the press at face value and that's not you surely?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    ping said:

    On cannabis -

    Rather alarmed at the direction of travel in this country and elsewhere.

    We’ve done a great job of reducing smoking. Why the hell are we even thinking about decriminalising and normalising weed?

    It’s a public health disaster.

    I’m generally pretty liberal, but not on drugs. They’re bloody evil.

    I totally agree.

    I can't find it right now, put the polling on it make it a massive wedge issue too.

    Tory voters do not like anything that even smells like legalisation...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110
    RobD said:

    Wouldn't be surprised if it was done to try and bounce them into a decision. Still, it wasn't a promise.
    PM trails the 5 April as the day he may be able to say more about future policy on travel.

    Number Ten briefs the press over Easter that Monday's conference will include an announcement on travel.

    Then when 5 April comes, the PM says it all depends, wait and see.

    It surprises me the lengths PB's fanclub will go to, to try and excuse another booboo by our chief clown. There was no need for all this advance trailing at all, and simply makes him look stupid.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    MaxPB said:

    They were also the team that predicted a daily peak of 4,000 deaths per day. They're one of those teams that desperately look for the worst case scenario and pretend it will definitely 100% happen and then get headlines of doom.
    Andrew Lillico has spent considerable time looking into this 'late surge' theory iirc. He believes it wont happen now I think.

    See: https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    isam said:

    I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter

    Facts change. God only knows what we'd have done if the vaccines hadn't come good. But they have and this really ought to be over (domestically, anyway).
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    What will you do if the real elections tell the same story as the polls?
    I have already accepted that very many people in Britain do not value their freedom that highly right now. If the results bear out the polls I will simply keep arguing what I have argued all along since the crisis started.

    Namely.........Lockdown is the biggest policy mistake in peacetime since world war two. There is precisely nothing conservative about the conservative party. Giving up freedoms and expecting them to be simply handed back is a great act of folly. The notion that the authorities don't want us to keep us under restrictions a minute longer than necessary is a patent untruth. The notion that vaccines would set us free is another patent untruth.

    As Julia HB says, this does not end until we say it does.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    Isn't the Tory vaccine boost going to evaporate if it becomes clear we aren't getting back to normal despite all the over 70s (or 50s or whatever) and all the vulnerable and so on, have have been done twice?

    What was the point?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Pulpstar said:

    I expect anti vaccine passport sentiment is broadly linked to those opposing having the vaccine itself. The view on here, pro vaccine, anti-vaccine passport is likely not that widely held - and of that view held more widely it'll be people opposing it before they themselves have been vaxxed.
    Personally my main concern is appropriate exemptions.

    Would you like to see a zero tolerance approach to the MMR vaccine?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    algarkirk said:

    Agree. I do not doubt Nicola's philosophical commitment to independence, but it like our collective commitment to world peace and the abolition of poverty, at best it is slow progress and it isn't actually going to happen.

    If following Brexit the indy cause can't get polling at 60% or so - and they can't - it is hard to see it happening. To win a Ref2 they need to be at 60% or so now, because their actual case is so terrible they are bound to suffer losses in a campaign.

    Until the weather changes Nicola needs to keep this on the permanent horizon. (Hint: Christianity has been doing this about the second coming for 2000 years and it works fine).
    But if you're saying Sturgeon is not keen for a quick referendum because she knows it will be another No - which kills Sindy for the foreseeable future - this would be by your own logic the correct approach for someone truly committed to the cause.

    You are trying to have your cake and eat it, argumentally.

    I continue to wait for actual evidence that she cares far more about being FM than about achieving an independent Scotland.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IanB2 said:

    PM trails the 5 April as the day he may be able to say more about future policy on travel.

    Number Ten briefs the press over Easter that Monday's conference will include an announcement on travel.

    Then when 5 April comes, the PM says it all depends, wait and see.

    It surprises me the lengths PB's fanclub will go to, to try and excuse another booboo by our chief clown. There was no need for all this advance trailing at all, and simply makes him look stupid.
    Wow you really thought Johnson & Co. would allow you to travel abroad this summer? goodness.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Sorry to hear about the death of Cheryl Gillan. However, it could be a blessing in disguise for the Tories. They could install DRoss as candidate for the by-election. Even DRoss couldn’t lose a 16,000 majority, surely? And it gives them an opportunity to replace him in Scotland with someone less useless.

    But he is already an MP!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    What will you do if the real elections tell the same story as the polls?
    Of course the other thing it would tell us is that you can scare a lot of the people a lot of the time.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    isam said:

    I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter

    It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,333
    ping said:

    On cannabis -

    Rather alarmed at the direction of travel in this country and elsewhere.

    We’ve done a great job of reducing smoking. Why the hell are we even thinking about decriminalising and normalising weed?

    It’s a public health disaster.

    I’m generally pretty liberal, but not on drugs. They’re bloody evil.

    Couldn't agree more
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    tlg86 said:

    Would you like to see a zero tolerance approach to the MMR vaccine?
    Yes. Those are extremely dangerous illnesses.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    From the Beeb:

    Labour responds to government lockdown easing announcement

    Labour MP and shadow health minister Justin Madders tells the BBC News Channel he thinks the announcement today is "positive that it appears to be working so far" and he's "very happy that things appear to be on track".

    But he adds there are some things the UK "could be doing an awful lot better".

    He says Labour "have got concerns" about vaccine passports, as they could have a "major impact on everyone" and individual liberties and freedoms. There are "very significant questions" about whether these are "the right and fair thing to do".

    There are "lots of unanswered questions" about the passports, he adds.

    Madders says he was "a little bit worried" the prime minister did not fully rule out vaccine passports for pubs and shops from 17 May.

    On travel, he says overseas travel is "very difficult" and the situation continues to change "on a daily basis" but he says the industry needs some assurance for the summer.

    He says testing is important to show people when they are ill, but he says Covid support payments, to help those to self-isolate who are on low incomes, are only available to one in eight people. Madders says eligibility needs to be expanded.


    Labour's prevarication and waffle on vaccine passports continues.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    edited April 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Would you like to see a zero tolerance approach to the MMR vaccine?
    The interesting thing is that there is a side effect from the Covid vaccine. There is a tiny chance of a blood clot (someone technical will correct as to the particular version) especially for younger women.

    It is an interesting dynamic that in order to have a "normal" life, the govt should be forcing people to take the vaccine which has a non-zero risk associated with it.

    And yes of course there are substantial risks to getting Covid. That is not my point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    Should we have a big party, like Czechia did?

    At the same time, SAGE are power-crazed, stupid, dangerous liars who don’t have a clue what they’re doing and should die painful deaths.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited April 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Well on the one hand TINO, while on the other maybe some will register a (non discernable) protest.

    Here we have the dilemma of there being no voice for people of a certain world view. Does it matter? No because democracy. But perhaps people will remember if and when alternatives (inter- and intra-party) present themselves.
    Ironically our best hope might be labour's cohort of young voters. Why would they turn out of a party that has colluded at every stage in destroying their lives, their hopes and their futures in the past year, and does to this very day? Especially in the locals.

    I have a hunch labour could be looking at a very, very bad result in May, worse than even the pessimists expect. Who knows, that might put some life into what is not far from a zombie party.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    PM trails the 5 April as the day he may be able to say more about future policy on travel.

    Number Ten briefs the press over Easter that Monday's conference will include an announcement on travel.

    Then when 5 April comes, the PM says it all depends, wait and see.

    It surprises me the lengths PB's fanclub will go to, to try and excuse another booboo by our chief clown. There was no need for all this advance trailing at all, and simply makes him look stupid.
    May does not mean will.

    Do you have a Number Ten press release that says Monday's conference "will" include an announcement on travel?

    5 April arrives and the conference is exactly as had been said. It "may" have contained an announcement, but that also means it "may not". In this instance the latter was correct, exactly as was said.

    There was no advance trailing other than it "may" have announcement. May doesn't mean "will". Reports in the press are not "will" either. The press will happily take a "may" and turn it into a "will" but unless the statement was "will" that's just the press playing silly buggers as they have a tendency to do. They will always report things in the most dramatic way possible, the press never lead with "it all depends, wait and see" because that doesn't generate clicks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    edited April 2021
    IanB2 said:

    PM trails the 5 April as the day he may be able to say more about future policy on travel.

    Number Ten briefs the press over Easter that Monday's conference will include an announcement on travel.

    Then when 5 April comes, the PM says it all depends, wait and see.

    It surprises me the lengths PB's fanclub will go to, to try and excuse another booboo by our chief clown. There was no need for all this advance trailing at all, and simply makes him look stupid.
    Na, just pointing out it wasn't promised. The direct quote was that they may be in a position to do so. Of course the media got in a complete tiz about it since it was regarding holidays.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367

    I wish they would be more transparent about this.

    If the vaccines are as effective as they appear, we have nothing to worry about once 80%+ of the population is vaccinated.

    If there's a vaccine-avoiding variant then we simply face another lockdown in the future. Vaccine passports wont stop it so I'd rather enjoy life as much as possible now before that point.
    There is a very mixed message from the government, and I do have some sympathy about the difficulty about giving dates and certainty, but Boris has talked repeatedly of restrictions ending in June. Now it's becoming clear what restrictions ending in June means in practice, that is vaccine certificates/passports, LFT tests twice a week, a traffic light system for international travel with quarantining, and probably more measures. That actually sounds like a lot of restrictions to me, and I'm by and large quite happy to play it safe, but the government has clearly overstated what restrictions ending means.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    alex_ said:

    “International travel may start again on 17th May, although the limiting factor is the risk of importing virus variants”. Meanwhile 1000s of people from abroad are coming in every day on tourist visas.

    Who can explain that?

    Surely the policy should be:

    "It is important that the UK is open for business, and that we restrict our citizens freedoms as little as possible. However, until the virus is conquered globally, then caution is warranted.

    We will therefore look to open up to countries with low virus prevalence, and to those who are fully vaccinated. For now, this means that only a small number of you will be able travel, but we hope that as vaccine availability improves, and as other countries get on top of Covid, this will improve."
  • RichardrRichardr Posts: 99
    ping said:

    On cannabis -

    Rather alarmed at the direction of travel in this country and elsewhere.

    We’ve done a great job of reducing smoking. Why the hell are we even thinking about decriminalising and normalising weed?

    It’s a public health disaster.

    I’m generally pretty liberal, but not on drugs. They’re bloody evil.

    Very few people are talking about normalizing weed - decriminalizing is a different position, and derives from the view that prohibition hasn't worked, a lot of today's crime is drugs related, and many problems stem from that.

    As with many decisions there are trade-offs to be made, and that is the lessor of two evils.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,268
    edited April 2021
    Mortimer said:

    I totally agree.

    I can't find it right now, put the polling on it make it a massive wedge issue too.

    Tory voters do not like anything that even smells like legalisation...
    Legalisation of cannabis and assisted dying are the two policies that I seriously object to from the Lib Dems.

    I think cannabis induced schizophrenia in British-Carribean youths is a major part of why they have a far worse rate of diagnosed psychiatric illness, and a fair bit to do with poor educational achievement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    Andy_JS said:

    Why can't almost everyone be vaccinated by the end of the summer?
    There's no reason why the UK can't do one million jabs a day (plus we have single dose J&J on the way), so one would hope middle of June should be more than achievable.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,609
    isam said:

    Couldn't agree more
    Why do you think that reducing the harm done by cannabis necessarily requires the current legal position?

    You think drugs are evil. We already allow recreational drugs. Would you ban alcohol and nicotine? If not, why is banning the only possible solution for cannabis?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Life won't be back to normal by summer amid fears of huge Covid surge, SAGE warns

    Government scientists believe some restrictions may have to be maintained until this time next year. Sage papers say there could be another surge in Covid-19 infections in late summer"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/lockdown-plan-fully-reopen-pubs-23856766
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    From the Beeb:

    Labour responds to government lockdown easing announcement

    Labour MP and shadow health minister Justin Madders tells the BBC News Channel he thinks the announcement today is "positive that it appears to be working so far" and he's "very happy that things appear to be on track".

    But he adds there are some things the UK "could be doing an awful lot better".

    He says Labour "have got concerns" about vaccine passports, as they could have a "major impact on everyone" and individual liberties and freedoms. There are "very significant questions" about whether these are "the right and fair thing to do".

    There are "lots of unanswered questions" about the passports, he adds.

    Madders says he was "a little bit worried" the prime minister did not fully rule out vaccine passports for pubs and shops from 17 May.

    On travel, he says overseas travel is "very difficult" and the situation continues to change "on a daily basis" but he says the industry needs some assurance for the summer.

    He says testing is important to show people when they are ill, but he says Covid support payments, to help those to self-isolate who are on low incomes, are only available to one in eight people. Madders says eligibility needs to be expanded.


    Labour's prevarication and waffle on vaccine passports continues.

    Labour do not know which way to turn, right now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553

    From the Beeb:

    Labour responds to government lockdown easing announcement

    Labour MP and shadow health minister Justin Madders tells the BBC News Channel he thinks the announcement today is "positive that it appears to be working so far" and he's "very happy that things appear to be on track".

    But he adds there are some things the UK "could be doing an awful lot better".

    He says Labour "have got concerns" about vaccine passports, as they could have a "major impact on everyone" and individual liberties and freedoms. There are "very significant questions" about whether these are "the right and fair thing to do".

    There are "lots of unanswered questions" about the passports, he adds.

    Madders says he was "a little bit worried" the prime minister did not fully rule out vaccine passports for pubs and shops from 17 May.

    On travel, he says overseas travel is "very difficult" and the situation continues to change "on a daily basis" but he says the industry needs some assurance for the summer.

    He says testing is important to show people when they are ill, but he says Covid support payments, to help those to self-isolate who are on low incomes, are only available to one in eight people. Madders says eligibility needs to be expanded.


    Labour's prevarication and waffle on vaccine passports continues.

    Pathetic. At least Ed Davey is clear.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Stocky said:

    For Cyclefree, and other liberals like me, freedoms can only be taken by the state in exceptional and time-limited circumstances. For me, extreme pressure on health services counted. We are not in this position now. The vaccine programme cannot be described as hugely successful with no corresponding return of liberties which have clearly now been relegated to privileges rather than the basic rights in a liberal democracy.
    Well said. I, for my part, am prepared to tolerate the Government's ploddingly slow unlocking program, because I understand the rationale behind all these five week gaps that has previously been articulated, and perhaps one should cut them a little slack when they say they're worried about going too fast after everything that's happened in the last year.

    HOWEVER - if we go through all these steps and there is no sign of a massive resurgence in hospitalisations after each one, then the logical endpoint of this is the binning of all domestic restrictions (I understand that international travel has to be a special case.) That does not mean all domestic restrictions except masks, or all domestic restrictions except masks and "papers please" whenever you want to set foot inside a building that isn't your own home. There is no excuse for restrictions under circumstances where the virus has obviously been crushed, and that is the end of the matter.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    rcs1000 said:

    There's no reason why the UK can't do one million jabs a day (plus we have single dose J&J on the way), so one would hope middle of June should be more than achievable.
    As if that will make a difference to our freedoms
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    Wow you really thought Johnson & Co. would allow you to travel abroad this summer? goodness.
    I think they will. Better than 50/50 anyway. I actually think 17 May will be adhered to, Johnson said three times today that roadmap is on track. But I think there will be degrees, depending on situation in the particular country (traffic light system, or red list, or corridor system).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Ironically our best hope might be labour's cohort of young voters. Why would they turn out of a party that has colluded at every stage in destroying their lives, their hopes and their futures in the past year, and does to this very day? Especially in the locals.

    I have a hunch labour could be looking at a very, very bad result in May, worse than even the pessimists expect. Who knows, that might put some life into what is not far from a zombie party.
    At some stage, for whatever reason, Labour supporters will presumably get fed up with their party not opposing anything the government does.

    By May 6th there could just be a chance for them to build up a libertarian-type narrative were it not for the fact that they can't wait to get into power with such measures in place and as precedent.

    Which of course (Cons) cheerleaders of all this legislation somehow ignore.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    Mortimer said:

    I just came here to write almost the same.

    When there is such a good story to tell, why persist with being a gloomster?

    Another day of everyone breaking the rules today; and cases are through the floor.

    Who is going to test themselves twice a week for something that isn't circulating in the community?

    Strikes me that soon biz are just going to say to hell with it.
    Maybe the behaviour scientists have already told him that it will end when we, the public, say it ends and Johnson is just riffing until that happens sometime in next month or two?

    I dunno.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    felix said:

    It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
    We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.

    For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials

    Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.

    Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Labour do not know which way to turn, right now.
    Labour under Starmer try to avoid taking a strong position - shocked I tell you
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, I was quite hopeful with my type O -ve blood.
    I accuse you of a hate thought crime against us A-ves
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Andy_JS said:

    "Life won't be back to normal by summer amid fears of huge Covid surge, SAGE warns

    Government scientists believe some restrictions may have to be maintained until this time next year. Sage papers say there could be another surge in Covid-19 infections in late summer"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/lockdown-plan-fully-reopen-pubs-23856766

    How. Many. More. Times.

    Government scientists have been given enormous powers over our everyday lives. Without much accountability,.

    They do not want to relinquish these powers. Ever. Because they are people and that's what people are like. People love power.
    That's why powers are, generally, separated in constitutions.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Okay, I’ve had a look at the SPI-M-O paper here (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf ) and I’m deeply unconvinced of some of their core assumptions.

    I get that I’m just some guy on the internet and they do this professionally, but their assumptions on vaccine efficacy against infection and against hospitalisation look rather divergent to what we already know or rather bewildering.
    As well as being massively variable between their three groups)

    I can’t see the second dose of the AZ vaccine having zero effect as most of them seem to assume. I don’t see two doses only reducing infection by 31% or even 63%.
    That vaccination rates will only average a total of 2.7 million doses per week between now and June and then drop to 2 million a week seems incredibly pessimistic.

    And yes, once again, I’m just some guy on the Internet, but I had very similar issues with their January modelling, which indeed proved to be based on incorrect and hugely overpessimistic assumptions.
    Thanks for looking at this, PB benefits from people prepared to take time to actually look at the detail (I'm too lazy most of the time!).
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited April 2021
    Stocky said:

    For Cyclefree, and other liberals like me, freedoms can only be taken by the state in exceptional and time-limited circumstances. For me, extreme pressure on health services counted. We are not in this position now. The vaccine programme cannot be described as hugely successful with no corresponding return of liberties which have clearly now been relegated to privileges rather than the basic rights of a liberal democracy.
    Get over yourself. The situation is much improved and restrictions are and will continue to be lifted and lightened. We are though in the midst of a massive trial wrt to vaccine efficacy. We do not yet know how long the vaccine works for, the potential impact of new variants from a world largely unvaccinated and a disease still fairly rampant within 20 miles of Uk shores. Give the government a chance to get many more people jabbed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:
    And some people still parrot that this has a 0.15% IFR. Russia would have to have had over 281 million out of its 144 million people infected already to match that IFR.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Foxy said:

    Legalisation of cannabis and assisted dying are the two policies that I seriously object to from the Lib Dems.

    I think cannabis induced schizophrenia in British-Carribean youths is a major part of why they have a far worse rate of diagnosed psychiatric illness, and a fair bit to do with poor educational achievement.
    And assisted dying? Why must people who are suffering, and terminally ill, and whose situation is therefore (as far as they are concerned) hopeless, be denied relief because they are unable or unwilling to book in to Dignitas?

    Is it that people who have had enough and want to go quietly have to put up with palliative care for the sake of other people who might be pressurized into taking the option when they don't want to? I'm not trying to get on my high horse, I'm interested in other peoples' thoughts about this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    Floater said:

    Labour under Starmer try to avoid taking a strong position - shocked I tell you
    In fairness, that worked for Tony Blair and David Cameron.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    glw said:

    There is a very mixed message from the government, and I do have some sympathy about the difficulty about giving dates and certainty, but Boris has talked repeatedly of restrictions ending in June. Now it's becoming clear what restrictions ending in June means in practice, that is vaccine certificates/passports, LFT tests twice a week, a traffic light system for international travel with quarantining, and probably more measures. That actually sounds like a lot of restrictions to me, and I'm by and large quite happy to play it safe, but the government has clearly overstated what restrictions ending means.
    Who are these people who will voluntarily test themselves?! With no symptoms? In a vaxxed society with no community spread?

    I have lots of bridges to sell them....
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,609
    IanB2 said:

    PM trails the 5 April as the day he may be able to say more about future policy on travel.

    Number Ten briefs the press over Easter that Monday's conference will include an announcement on travel.

    Then when 5 April comes, the PM says it all depends, wait and see.

    It surprises me the lengths PB's fanclub will go to, to try and excuse another booboo by our chief clown. There was no need for all this advance trailing at all, and simply makes him look stupid.
    Maybe they thought they would be in a position to offer something early, and for some reason they're not and sticking to the original timetable. Could be anything from how other countries' stats are going to how discussions with other countries about vaccine passports are going. It might be down to just a few countries - I imagine we would want to be able to include countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal, Turkey and France. Malta might be looking to be fully vaxxed but we can't all go there on holiday, it's smaller than the Isle of Wight. So I imagine this time last week the Travel Task Force's work was looking more advanced than it does today.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,929

    Isn't the Tory vaccine boost going to evaporate if it becomes clear we aren't getting back to normal despite all the over 70s (or 50s or whatever) and all the vulnerable and so on, have have been done twice?

    What was the point?

    And is it going to harm uptake of the variant booster jabs if people think the first load ended up a waste of time
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    And some people still parrot that this has a 0.15% IFR. Russia would have to have had over 281 million out of its 144 million people infected already to match that IFR.
    Russia is not merely a middle income country but a decaying middle income country, lacking the experience, efficiency and organisation that has saved, for example, Vietnam from disaster.

    They're obviously lying about their Covid fatality statistics. These data suggest that they've suffered an appalling massacre, which is not unexpected.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Stocky said:

    I think they will. Better than 50/50 anyway. I actually think 17 May will be adhered to, Johnson said three times today that roadmap is on track. But I think there will be degrees, depending on situation in the particular country (traffic light system, or red list, or corridor system).
    Seriously Stocky when are you and the other Johnson apologists going to stop giving this most mendacious of men the benefit of the doubt? At what point is enough enough for you?

    The fact is that REAL freedom was never on the table until Mid May anyway and now there are clearly questions around that, despite incredible data.


  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    ydoethur said:

    In fairness, that worked for Tony Blair and David Cameron.
    Cameron and Osborne backed the bank bailout, didn't they? Blair, to be fair, was LotO at a very placid time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Stocky said:

    I think they will. Better than 50/50 anyway. I actually think 17 May will be adhered to, Johnson said three times today that roadmap is on track. But I think there will be degrees, depending on situation in the particular country (traffic light system, or red list, or corridor system).
    I don't think it will or should be adhered to, based on data not dates.

    While the domestic data is as good if not better than what was predicted weeks ago, the overseas data is absolutely terrible. France is going into lockdown, the whole of Europe is undergoing a third wave. Unless we have a green light for pretty much Israel the international data is absolutely awful.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    From the Beeb:

    Labour responds to government lockdown easing announcement

    Labour MP and shadow health minister Justin Madders tells the BBC News Channel he thinks the announcement today is "positive that it appears to be working so far" and he's "very happy that things appear to be on track".

    But he adds there are some things the UK "could be doing an awful lot better".

    He says Labour "have got concerns" about vaccine passports, as they could have a "major impact on everyone" and individual liberties and freedoms. There are "very significant questions" about whether these are "the right and fair thing to do".

    There are "lots of unanswered questions" about the passports, he adds.

    Madders says he was "a little bit worried" the prime minister did not fully rule out vaccine passports for pubs and shops from 17 May.

    On travel, he says overseas travel is "very difficult" and the situation continues to change "on a daily basis" but he says the industry needs some assurance for the summer.

    He says testing is important to show people when they are ill, but he says Covid support payments, to help those to self-isolate who are on low incomes, are only available to one in eight people. Madders says eligibility needs to be expanded.


    Labour's prevarication and waffle on vaccine passports continues.

    I don't agree; Labour's response above is entirely reasonable. Labour is not in power: of course it is reasonable to wait to see precisely what the government proposes before deciding what line to take. But there's a clear line that Labour thinks the government should have ruled out vaccine passports for pubs and shops, and that passports generally raise considerable questions about individual liberty.

    And at the end of the statement, Labour is quite right. All the testing in the world means little if those with symptoms don't subsequently self-isolate. And all the evidence shows that too many don't. A clear weakness that needs to be sorted, probably by widening eligibility for financial support and making sure people don't lose jobs/hours of work if they self-isolate.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Mortimer said:

    Who are these people who will voluntarily test themselves?! With no symptoms? In a vaxxed society with no community spread?

    I have lots of bridges to sell them....
    Giving Johnson the opportunity to delay re-opening if he wants because people are no longer playing ball. After all, he can do what he wants.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    felix said:

    It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
    No it isn't. I will not put people around me at risk. If they ask me to wear a mask or stay 2 metres away, I will do so - out of politeness and consideration for my fellow man. What I will not do is comply with the government's increasingly illiberal measures - such as ID cards or testing or whatever.

    The government is not being cautious. If it were it would be doing something intelligent about people coming to this country. It isn't. Rather, it is using fear of Covid as a pretext to seize more and more power for itself at the expense of our freedoms, with as little scrutiny as possible, and lying about its reasons for doing so. I will not participate in that or facilitate it in any way. And I will speak up against it.

    I hope you in Spain get your vaccines as soon as possible. I have friends there, as I have family in Italy, France and Ireland who are similarly waiting anxiously.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I don't agree; Labour's response above is entirely reasonable. Labour is not in power: of course it is reasonable to wait to see precisely what the government proposes before deciding what line to take. But there's a clear line that Labour thinks the government should have ruled out vaccine passports for pubs and shops, and that passports generally raise considerable questions about individual liberty.

    And at the end of the statement, Labour is quite right. All the testing in the world means little if those with symptoms don't subsequently self-isolate. And all the evidence shows that too many don't. A clear weakness that needs to be sorted, probably by widening eligibility for financial support and making sure people don't lose jobs/hours of work if they self-isolate.

    The public knows that labour effectively holds the balance of power because of the number of tory libertarians who are against the government and labour are with Johnson all the way. All the way. As they will be with vaccine passports.

    Ask young people what they think of vaccine passports. It isn;t pretty.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,321
    ydoethur said:

    In fairness, that worked for Tony Blair and David Cameron.
    But that doesn't fit the narrative.
  • Deleted

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    tlg86 said:

    Cameron and Osborne backed the bank bailout, didn't they? Blair, to be fair, was LotO at a very placid time.
    Not really. They said they wouldn’t oppose it but they weren’t very clear about what they would have done instead, beyond some waffle about an implausible bail in by other banks.

    But that didn’t matter. Because the problem was Labour’s all the way, so the fact the Tories would have done even worse was irrelevant.

    Just as had Smith and Brown been in charge on Black Wednesday things would have been a hundred times worse given they supported the government and were beyond furious when Britain withdrew from the ERM. Did that matter? No. And still doesn’t. Because they weren’t in charge.

    People don’t remember such things. They remember government cockups. The reason Labour did OK last year is because the government was cocking up more often than Boris Johnson in an editorial meeting of young female journalists. With the vaccine rollout, that’s changed. But given we’ve still got a government ultimately of third rate intellects, many of whom are actual criminals as well, you’d be brave to bet on that remaining the same way for three years.

    Starmer is probably doing as well as could be expected, right now. For a number of reasons, that is not ‘well.’ But much water will flow under many bridges before we make a final judgement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556

    Giving Johnson the opportunity to delay re-opening if he wants because people are no longer playing ball. After all, he can do what he wants.

    Anyone who takes these tests is a masochist and/or a fool.

    But not nearly as big a fool as someone who refuses the vaccine for spurious reasons to fulfil their own conspiracy theories on the subject.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,929
    I think we can liven up the government briefings by getting Johnson, Whitty, Valance et al. to take their twice weekly tests live at their podiums. I daresay they will be happy to set the example.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited April 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    No it isn't. I will not put people around me at risk. If they ask me to wear a mask or stay 2 metres away, I will do so - out of politeness and consideration for my fellow man. What I will not do is comply with the government's increasingly illiberal measures - such as ID cards or testing or whatever.

    The government is not being cautious. If it were it would be doing something intelligent about people coming to this country. It isn't. Rather, it is using fear of Covid as a pretext to seize more and more power for itself at the expense of our freedoms, with as little scrutiny as possible, and lying about its reasons for doing so. I will not participate in that or facilitate it in any way. And I will speak up against it.

    I hope you in Spain get your vaccines as soon as possible. I have friends there, as I have family in Italy, France and Ireland who are similarly waiting anxiously.
    Ben Franklin's comments about liberty and safety are echoing down the centuries. Echoing. They are the first, last and final epitaph for what is being done and they should be carved on the walls of every public building in existence.

    Its surely becoming clear there were extremely good reasons why no government in history ever locked its citizens down no matter what befell them, one being those citizens would not bloody stand for it.

    Life without liberty is not life at all. It is merely existence. And now we are forced to queue up for dollops of what is our birthright that has been bought in blood, in return for all sorts of indignities and insults from those we have ceded power to.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    edited April 2021

    Seriously Stocky when are you and the other Johnson apologists going to stop giving this most mendacious of men the benefit of the doubt? At what point is enough enough for you?

    The fact is that REAL freedom was never on the table until Mid May anyway and now there are clearly questions around that, despite incredible data.
    On April 12th - that's next week - you can have a haircut and 6 pints down the pub. In either order. Just think about that for a second.
This discussion has been closed.