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Former Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillam, dies after long illness – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 5 in General
imageFormer Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillam, dies after long illness – politicalbetting.com

The Presss Association has reported within the past hour that the Conservative MP for Chesham and Amersham, Cheryl Gillan, has died at the age of 68 after a long illness.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Sad news but that is quite a run for the Tories. Are their MPs getting younger?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,625
    It's sad - rest in peace. Wee typo 'Gillam' (should be Gillan) in the headline.

    Nobody should die of cancer in this day and age.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    edited April 5
    What we need is a genuine successor to Vincent Hannah who almost single handedly made by elections interesting and encouraged parties, especially minority parties, by giving them a profile and media presence they could rarely achieve. They have become boring again which is a pity.
  • pingping Posts: 331
    edited April 5
    Fpt @Kinabalu

    From the boe research paper

    “ the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‐linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.”

    Wow

    Of course, since publication, rates/gilt yields have dropped further.

    If rates/gilts go back up reasonably soon, we might be somewhere near peak property prices right about now.
  • pingping Posts: 331
    edited April 5
    RIP Cheryl Gillan

    Re betting: safe Tory hold
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    FPT @ Malmesbury who said:

    "IIRC the "we can print smallpox, if we ever wanted" idea was discussed a decade or 2 ago. There was some consideration to each of the countries still holding their samples destroying them simultaneously. Again, IIRC, the view that making a species deliberately extinct was wrong, won out."

    2 decades ago it would have been very much harder to print smallpox than it would be today. And today we have had real instances of extinct diseases (horsepox) and strains (Spanish flu) being de-extincted through printing up of the sequence. And it is not just viruses - work is well advanced to re-create the American chestnut modified to be resistant to the blight that caused its extinction.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,363
    Very sad news. She was genuinely liked and respected across the House of Commons.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,104
    DavidL said:

    Sad news but that is quite a run for the Tories. Are their MPs getting younger?

    Am tempted to reply that they are ageing at the same rate as everyone else!
    One possible reason is that they were down to 166 MPs before the 2005 election. So probably don't have so many oldies hanging on.
    Cameron, in particular, tried to encourage younger PPC's.
    RIP.
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 116
    ping said:

    Fpt @Kinabalu

    From the boe research paper

    “ the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‐linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.”

    Wow

    Of course, since publication, rates/gilt yields have dropped further.

    If rates/gilts go back up reasonably soon, we might be somewhere near peak property prices right about now.

    It's amazing how wide the range of mortgage rates has been over the last 40 years, from 15% in 1989 (weeks after I bought my first house) to about 1% at times since. I think the lowering of rates as our rates got closer to the European averages is why house prices tripled over the period from say 1995 to 2005. But I wonder whether a rise back towards something more usual over time will lead to a crash or just to prices remaining static and so reducing in real terms. Or will supply issues mean that prices still rise and mortgage terms move out to 40 years, or multi generation mortgages like in Japan?
  • eekeek Posts: 11,737
    ping said:

    RIP Cheryl Gillan

    Re betting: safe Tory hold

    Safest of safe Tory holds
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334

    Very sad news. She was genuinely liked and respected across the House of Commons.

    As I said on the last thread I knew Cheryl when she was Secretary of State for Wales

    She was dynamic and a character and it was a pleasure to be in her company

    Condolences to her family, colleagues and friends
    Indeed, condolences to those who knew her.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,084
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,862
    How sad. RIP to Dame Cheryl.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 800
    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I am at the point that Boris should let Holyrood settle down with Sturgeon v Salmond v Galloway box office civil war and then let the HOC have a free vote on a section 30 request

    If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 148
    RIP.

    Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    TimT said:
    Absolutely right. A real cheerer-upper!
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 148
    ping said:

    Fpt @Kinabalu

    From the boe research paper

    “ the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‐linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.”

    Wow

    Of course, since publication, rates/gilt yields have dropped further.

    If rates/gilts go back up reasonably soon, we might be somewhere near peak property prices right about now.

    Of course a 1% increase in index-linked yields at actual payment as opposed to breakeven expectations will result in a 20% fall in real house prices every 18 years relative to *the exact same house prices* in the alternative scenario, since the index on which "real" is based will be 20% higher :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    RIP.

    Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?

    Blaenau Gwent is another example - UKIP, Plaid, Brexit. In fact, they had different runners up at the last four elections, with BGPV being second in 2010.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,024

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I am at the point that Boris should let Holyrood settle down with Sturgeon v Salmond v Galloway box office civil war and then let the HOC have a free vote on a section 30 request

    If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
    Oh no, is Galloway going to get a seat? Poor Holyrood. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,294
    Lib Dem SURGE
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,104
    ydoethur said:

    RIP.

    Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?

    Blaenau Gwent is another example - UKIP, Plaid, Brexit. In fact, they had different runners up at the last four elections, with BGPV being second in 2010.
    Now that is a PB fact. Chapeau.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I am at the point that Boris should let Holyrood settle down with Sturgeon v Salmond v Galloway box office civil war and then let the HOC have a free vote on a section 30 request

    If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
    Oh no, is Galloway going to get a seat? Poor Holyrood. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
    Looks like it
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718
    TimT said:

    FPT @ Malmesbury who said:

    "IIRC the "we can print smallpox, if we ever wanted" idea was discussed a decade or 2 ago. There was some consideration to each of the countries still holding their samples destroying them simultaneously. Again, IIRC, the view that making a species deliberately extinct was wrong, won out."

    2 decades ago it would have been very much harder to print smallpox than it would be today. And today we have had real instances of extinct diseases (horsepox) and strains (Spanish flu) being de-extincted through printing up of the sequence. And it is not just viruses - work is well advanced to re-create the American chestnut modified to be resistant to the blight that caused its extinction.

    Jurassic Park here we come.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    Boom! Must be all the clamour against vaccine certificates :smiley:

    Seriously I assume the LDs benefitting from local election visibility? As for Labour - maybe it's all the talk of Mandy coming back - but I would say that wouldn't I?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,532

    It's sad - rest in peace. Wee typo 'Gillam' (should be Gillan) in the headline.

    Nobody should die of cancer in this day and age.

    They're going to die of something, eventually. And if you get cancer, and you're sufficiently old, then the treatment is likely to be rather more dangerous than just letting the disease run its course.

    Now, I'm super excited about immunotherapy, and what that will do to cancer rates. But we're all still going to get old. And we're all still going to die.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,532
    ping said:

    Fpt @Kinabalu

    From the boe research paper

    “ the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‐linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.”

    Wow

    Of course, since publication, rates/gilt yields have dropped further.

    If rates/gilts go back up reasonably soon, we might be somewhere near peak property prices right about now.

    Interestingly, my next header is on just this subject...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,328
    edited April 5
    Doesn't seem like Boris has anything to say. I thought this was some yuggggeeeeee announcement.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    felix said:

    Boom! Must be all the clamour against vaccine certificates :smiley:

    Seriously I assume the LDs benefitting from local election visibility? As for Labour - maybe it's all the talk of Mandy coming back - but I would say that wouldn't I?
    Labour Remainers switching?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    C&A is one of those seats where the Liberal high water mark of Feb 1974 is still unbeaten (although the same percentage was achieved again in 1983) and one of the now few seats in the south where the LibDems held onto a respectable vote share in 2019. But is has always been exceptionally Tory and I can’t see the result of the by-election being any different. The LibDems will be looking to hold onto a creditable second place, and for Labour it’s not an attractive by-election at all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,532

    RIP.

    Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?

    It would have been much more common in 2018 than it is today, because there have now been three elections in a row where the LDs have had v. low vote shares.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    felix said:

    Boom! Must be all the clamour against vaccine certificates :smiley:

    Seriously I assume the LDs benefitting from local election visibility? As for Labour - maybe it's all the talk of Mandy coming back - but I would say that wouldn't I?
    Labour Remainers switching?
    Possibly
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962

    Doesn't seem like Boris has anything to say. I thought this was some yuggggeeeeee announcement.

    He’s confirmed the 12 April changes, but hasn’t explained the promised new system for foreign travel
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,247
    Just had a look at some mortality stats from the ONS after rural_voter's claims in the previous thread that:
    "If some of the figures you want to believe for 'COVID deaths' are correct, the implied deaths from cancer, MI, etc fall to 50-75% less than normal rates. This is vanishingly improbable."

    The 2020 figures for Dementia and Alzheimer's disease were 119.5/100,000 versus the 5-year average of 118.7; the figure for iwschaemic heart disease was 94.9 versus the average of 102.8; the figure for cerebrovascular disease was 50.3 versus an average of 57.5; the figure for all the cancers shown in the top ten put together (trachea, bronchus, lung, colon, sigmoid, rectum, anus, lymphoid, haematopoeietic and related tissues) was 98.1 against an average of 102.3.

    So cancer was 4% down (not "50-75% less"), and heart disease was just over 7% down (again, not "50-75% less").

    Seriously, do the denialists never bother to check the "facts" they breathlessly share around?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    COVID status certification has as much chance of sticking as a title as did the Community Charge!

    Meanwhile it looks like indecision on travel, despite the promises it would be unveiled in detail today.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,054
    IanB2 said:

    Doesn't seem like Boris has anything to say. I thought this was some yuggggeeeeee announcement.

    He’s confirmed the 12 April changes, but hasn’t explained the promised new system for foreign travel
    He is also going to cautiously and irreversibly drink a pint in a pub garden. I have usually found drinking a pint irreversible, it is drinking many where the process sometimes becomes reversed
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471
    IanB2 said:

    Doesn't seem like Boris has anything to say. I thought this was some yuggggeeeeee announcement.

    He’s confirmed the 12 April changes, but hasn’t explained the promised new system for foreign travel
    "We need to think about that" Johnson says. Get on with it. He's not announcing anything new today is he?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,050
    DougSeal said:
    Good news, although you can probably fill all the slots even with a 60% takeup rate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,024

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.

    The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.

    What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    So the promise that we would know where we stand on travel today hasn’t been delivered.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,919
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    RIP.

    Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?

    Blaenau Gwent is another example - UKIP, Plaid, Brexit. In fact, they had different runners up at the last four elections, with BGPV being second in 2010.
    Now that is a PB fact. Chapeau.
    Just to add, similar applies for both Barnsley East (BXP, Con, UKIP, LD) and Barnsley Central (same, but with a by-election in 2011 where UKIP came second - but still fulfils the GE criteria).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    felix said:

    Boom! Must be all the clamour against vaccine certificates :smiley:

    Seriously I assume the LDs benefitting from local election visibility? As for Labour - maybe it's all the talk of Mandy coming back - but I would say that wouldn't I?
    Labour Remainers switching?
    Noise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    IanB2 said:

    So the promise that we would know where we stand on travel today hasn’t been delivered.

    It never was going to be confirmed before 17th May
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966

    Doesn't seem like Boris has anything to say. I thought this was some yuggggeeeeee announcement.

    All wind and ......
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718
    IanB2 said:

    So the promise that we would know where we stand on travel today hasn’t been delivered.

    What promise that we would know today?

    17 May is the date that travel announcement is due to be made. Why would it be made today, when its due to be made on 17 May?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,204
    Do my eyes deceive me, or is that the 5th increase in the Tory lead in a row since the vaccine bounce was declared officially over? :wink:
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    Boris Johnson knows better than anyone that economics don't necessarily trump all else in a popular vote - especially one that touches upon sovereignty.

    It would be a tremendous gamble. The Union would either be saved or sundered on his watch, and I somehow doubt that he wishes to be remembered for the latter.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    All the 'noise' has been one-way since...last Saturday week :smiley:

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    Do my eyes deceive me, or is that the 5th increase in the Tory lead in a row since the vaccine bounce was declared officially over? :wink:
    Yes
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 800
    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.

    The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.

    What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
    I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,957

    RIP.

    Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?

    Another curiosity is that if you look at the figures in a simple way it appears obvious that between 2010 and 2015 UKIP surged substantially from the former votes of the LDs; which is impossible. But it is hard to see where else they came from, as Labour increased their vote and Tories held steady.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,932

    Do my eyes deceive me, or is that the 5th increase in the Tory lead in a row since the vaccine bounce was declared officially over? :wink:
    Yes
    His eyes deceive him?

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 3,353

    Very sad news. She was genuinely liked and respected across the House of Commons.

    As I said on the last thread I knew Cheryl when she was Secretary of State for Wales

    She was dynamic and a character and it was a pleasure to be in her company

    Condolences to her family, colleagues and friends
    An condolences to you, BGNW, your testimony speaks well of your friend. She died with her boots on.

    As for electoral prospects in upcoming C&A by-election, well yours truly has one foot (sort of) in the Irish American political tradition, where speaking of political succession at the wake of the late incumbent, is zero disrespect. Instead the opposite.

    Indeed, the assembled politicos & pundits are generally quite sorry, that the guest of honor is not in a position to add her learned commentary to the discussion!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Boris to a journalist

    You are taking all your fences at once

    Seems that is fair comment for some of our own posters
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962

    IanB2 said:

    So the promise that we would know where we stand on travel today hasn’t been delivered.

    It never was going to be confirmed before 17th May
    Yes it was; 17 May is the earliest date it may be allowed, but confirmation is promised earlier. It looks now as if it is due next Monday
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    Just gradually catching up on the press conference - I'm a little behind and being distracted by other things anyway. Just heard Johnson wriggling like an eel in response to Beth Rigby's straightforward questioning on life after June 21st. Clearly the plan is to ignore the success or otherwise of the vaccine rollout and to force these wretched ID cards on us anyway.

    I don't see how anyone listening to the Prime Minister's response can credibly claim that the last step of the road map means anything. We're not going to be let go to get on with our lives, we're going to be chained by officialdom - indefinitely it would appear.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I am at the point that Boris should let Holyrood settle down with Sturgeon v Salmond v Galloway box office civil war and then let the HOC have a free vote on a section 30 request

    If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
    Oh no, is Galloway going to get a seat? Poor Holyrood. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
    I hae ma doots, a single poll with suspect/untested methodology doesn't really do it for me. I'd be looking for 3/1 or better
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334

    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.

    The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.

    What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
    I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
    On the other hand, you can see why biding your time on calling an Indy Ref would make sense if the current conditions are not propitious for a successful outcome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Condolences to Cheryl Gillan's family.

    This will be the first by election the Tories will be defending from the LDs since the Brecon and Radnorshire by election in August 2019
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    edited April 5

    Just gradually catching up on the press conference - I'm a little behind and being distracted by other things anyway. Just heard Johnson wriggling like an eel in response to Beth Rigby's straightforward questioning on life after June 21st. Clearly the plan is to ignore the success or otherwise of the vaccine rollout and to force these wretched ID cards on us anyway.

    I don't see how anyone listening to the Prime Minister's response can credibly claim that the last step of the road map means anything. We're not going to be let go to get on with our lives, we're going to be chained by officialdom - indefinitely it would appear.

    You are making the same mistake Boris accused a journalist of

    You are taking all your fences at once
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718
    Oh sorry the Global Travel Taskforce reporting date is 12 April, not 17 May.

    Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I am at the point that Boris should let Holyrood settle down with Sturgeon v Salmond v Galloway box office civil war and then let the HOC have a free vote on a section 30 request

    If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
    Oh no, is Galloway going to get a seat? Poor Holyrood. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
    I hae ma doots, a single poll with suspect/untested methodology doesn't really do it for me. I'd be looking for 3/1 or better
    It is more than possible
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,084
    I though this press conference was meant to be “big news”.

    It’s all the stuff we know we already
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,997
    edited April 5
    Sad news about Cheryl Gillian.

    Chesham to Amersham is a very nice route for a stroll - it's about five miles from one to the other by the scenic route and it's very pleasant on a sunny afternoon. Amersham Old Town is one of the prettiest streets of 17th century architecture I've seen. And Little Missenden is very nice too.

    With all the allowances for the unpredictability of bye-elections, I assume it'll be a Con hold. A 16k majority is a challenge even for the LibDems at the moment. Though it would somehow fit the mood of the times if Tories lost it while winning Hartlepool
  • eekeek Posts: 11,737

    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.

    The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.

    What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
    I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
    Scottish politics is very simple - spend money like it's going out of fashion (remember it's 30% extra per capita than England) and if anyone complains or anything goes wrong talk about how independence would solve the issue / give you even more freebies
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    Just gradually catching up on the press conference - I'm a little behind and being distracted by other things anyway. Just heard Johnson wriggling like an eel in response to Beth Rigby's straightforward questioning on life after June 21st. Clearly the plan is to ignore the success or otherwise of the vaccine rollout and to force these wretched ID cards on us anyway.

    I don't see how anyone listening to the Prime Minister's response can credibly claim that the last step of the road map means anything. We're not going to be let go to get on with our lives, we're going to be chained by officialdom - indefinitely it would appear.

    You are making the same mistake Boris accused a journalist of

    You are taking all your fences at once
    I am prepared to wait for the Government to plod through its steps to liberation. What we shouldn't be expected to put up with is restrictions forever based on flimsy, pathetic excuses.

    If the disease is rampant in June then fine, keep giving it a good kick, but if it is crushed then there is no excuse for any of this rubbish to continue.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291
    Disgraceful from Johnson to use a public broadcast like this to be blatantly party political.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443

    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I am at the point that Boris should let Holyrood settle down with Sturgeon v Salmond v Galloway box office civil war and then let the HOC have a free vote on a section 30 request

    If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
    Oh no, is Galloway going to get a seat? Poor Holyrood. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
    I hae ma doots, a single poll with suspect/untested methodology doesn't really do it for me. I'd be looking for 3/1 or better
    It is more than possible
    Yeah, well anything's possible, even Douglas Ross becoming FM.

    Ok, not that.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291

    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really

    If you find that funny on a public health broadcast then that is very sad.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    According to the Government's C19 map thingy you can now walk from Dover to Lands End without passing through an MSOA with more than 2 cases. It's not even a very circuitous route either.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,024

    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.

    The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.

    What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
    I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
    Oh yes, We can project that onto her without it sounding crazy. It is perfectly credible. But for me, unless I'm missing something big, there's no good reason to assume it. I'd have thought the opposite assumption - that she remains committed to the cause - is the more likely and deserves to be the default, i.e. good evidence required to show otherwise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really

    If you find that funny on a public health broadcast then that is very sad.
    No - its politics
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443

    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really

    If you find that funny on a public health broadcast then that is very sad.
    BJ corrupts all he touches.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,520

    I though this press conference was meant to be “big news”.

    It’s all the stuff we know we already

    I wonder if there was something else planned, which was subsequently pulled?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    kinabalu said:

    Floater said:
    Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.

    I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.

    I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
    I am at the point that Boris should let Holyrood settle down with Sturgeon v Salmond v Galloway box office civil war and then let the HOC have a free vote on a section 30 request

    If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
    Oh no, is Galloway going to get a seat? Poor Holyrood. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
    I hae ma doots, a single poll with suspect/untested methodology doesn't really do it for me. I'd be looking for 3/1 or better
    It is more than possible
    Yeah, well anything's possible, even Douglas Ross becoming FM.

    Ok, not that.
    Douglas Ross will not be FM and he is not helping the Scons

    Very poor just like RT Davies in Wales
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291

    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really

    If you find that funny on a public health broadcast then that is very sad.
    No - its politics
    There will be Labour supporters in London who will have their fears about govts and vaccines enhanced, fewer people will take the vaccine as a result. It was completely inappropriate and unnecessary.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    Disgraceful from Johnson to use a public broadcast like this to be blatantly party political.

    Have you not listened to Nicola Sturgeon recently
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966

    Disgraceful from Johnson to use a public broadcast like this to be blatantly party political.

    Rules, including those which are unwritten, are for other people, according to our current PM. I wonder if he'll end up in court!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718

    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really

    If you find that funny on a public health broadcast then that is very sad.
    No - its politics
    There will be Labour supporters in London who will have their fears about govts and vaccines enhanced, fewer people will take the vaccine as a result. It was completely inappropriate and unnecessary.
    Because a question that was asked was answered? Should he not answer question.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 74

    Oh sorry the Global Travel Taskforce reporting date is 12 April, not 17 May.

    Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?

    The Times this morning reported that Boris would announce details of the overseas travel traffic light scheme and apparently an update from the global travel task force has been published this evening, though I can’t find a link... the Times report includes actual quotes from the PM’s speech so they seem to have been briefed by No 10... from that, I’d conclude that the intention to talk about overseas travel was dropped for some reason...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,055
    Oh dear, that is sad news.

    On the by election, will someone will stand on a "stop HS2 platform" or has that ship sailed train departed? (obviously electing one MP on such grounds wouldn't make a difference, but it's a chance to become an MP for a few years).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291

    Disgraceful from Johnson to use a public broadcast like this to be blatantly party political.

    Have you not listened to Nicola Sturgeon recently
    Not really, I don't live in Scotland.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    Just gradually catching up on the press conference - I'm a little behind and being distracted by other things anyway. Just heard Johnson wriggling like an eel in response to Beth Rigby's straightforward questioning on life after June 21st. Clearly the plan is to ignore the success or otherwise of the vaccine rollout and to force these wretched ID cards on us anyway.

    I don't see how anyone listening to the Prime Minister's response can credibly claim that the last step of the road map means anything. We're not going to be let go to get on with our lives, we're going to be chained by officialdom - indefinitely it would appear.

    You are making the same mistake Boris accused a journalist of

    You are taking all your fences at once
    I am prepared to wait for the Government to plod through its steps to liberation. What we shouldn't be expected to put up with is restrictions forever based on flimsy, pathetic excuses.

    If the disease is rampant in June then fine, keep giving it a good kick, but if it is crushed then there is no excuse for any of this rubbish to continue.
    I do not expect it to do so once covid has been controlled and vaccination as for flu answers the questions
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,050

    Oh sorry the Global Travel Taskforce reporting date is 12 April, not 17 May.

    Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?

    The Times this morning reported that Boris would announce details of the overseas travel traffic light scheme and apparently an update from the global travel task force has been published this evening, though I can’t find a link... the Times report includes actual quotes from the PM’s speech so they seem to have been briefed by No 10... from that, I’d conclude that the intention to talk about overseas travel was dropped for some reason...
    That doesn't sound like a promise.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    algarkirk said:

    RIP.

    Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?

    Another curiosity is that if you look at the figures in a simple way it appears obvious that between 2010 and 2015 UKIP surged substantially from the former votes of the LDs; which is impossible. But it is hard to see where else they came from, as Labour increased their vote and Tories held steady.
    Lib Dems heading to Gillan over her opposition to HS2 while the Tory Kippers hived off due to her Remainer sympathies?

    That would be my guess anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Disgraceful from Johnson to use a public broadcast like this to be blatantly party political.

    I’ve always said he was very like Sturgeon...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291

    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really

    If you find that funny on a public health broadcast then that is very sad.
    No - its politics
    There will be Labour supporters in London who will have their fears about govts and vaccines enhanced, fewer people will take the vaccine as a result. It was completely inappropriate and unnecessary.
    Because a question that was asked was answered? Should he not answer question.
    He should be capable of responding as prime minister of the whole country during a public health broadcast. He has plenty of opportunity to respond as leader of the Tory party at other times. Lives will be lost by those quips, the numbers will be very marginal but it is a pathetic disgrace and shows his complete disregard for standards of decency.
  • pingping Posts: 331
    edited April 5
    rcs1000 said:

    ping said:

    Fpt @Kinabalu

    From the boe research paper

    “ the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‐linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.”

    Wow

    Of course, since publication, rates/gilt yields have dropped further.

    If rates/gilts go back up reasonably soon, we might be somewhere near peak property prices right about now.

    Interestingly, my next header is on just this subject...
    Hmm

    Further research seems to indicate that while non-inflation linked gilts have ticked up a fair bit in the last few months, inflation linked gilts are fairly stable.

    https://think.ing.com/articles/uk-how-much-higher-can-gilt-yields-rise

    Not sure I shoulda called peak house prices. They could yet increase further...

    Look forward to your piece!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    Boris playing politics with Sadiq Khan

    Quite funny really

    If you find that funny on a public health broadcast then that is very sad.
    No - its politics
    There will be Labour supporters in London who will have their fears about govts and vaccines enhanced, fewer people will take the vaccine as a result. It was completely inappropriate and unnecessary.
    It was a direct response to a London journalist about TFL

    How you think it has anything to do with vaccine uptake is strange
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,602
    edited April 5

    Just gradually catching up on the press conference - I'm a little behind and being distracted by other things anyway. Just heard Johnson wriggling like an eel in response to Beth Rigby's straightforward questioning on life after June 21st. Clearly the plan is to ignore the success or otherwise of the vaccine rollout and to force these wretched ID cards on us anyway.

    I don't see how anyone listening to the Prime Minister's response can credibly claim that the last step of the road map means anything. We're not going to be let go to get on with our lives, we're going to be chained by officialdom - indefinitely it would appear.

    You are making the same mistake Boris accused a journalist of

    You are taking all your fences at once
    I am prepared to wait for the Government to plod through its steps to liberation. What we shouldn't be expected to put up with is restrictions forever based on flimsy, pathetic excuses.

    If the disease is rampant in June then fine, keep giving it a good kick, but if it is crushed then there is no excuse for any of this rubbish to continue.
    The polls show all the people that Boris needs to be on board are. Absolutely. People like us who want our freedom back with no strings attached are a small minority. There is no getting away from that.

    Yet look at the responses to Michael Gove's article in the Telegraph. All the most upvoted comments were the most vehemently critical of Gove's suggestions.

    The same is true in the Mail, except the numbers are much bigger because there are more readers.

    Is something weird going on? who knows, but the locals, real elections, may tell us more.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443

    Disgraceful from Johnson to use a public broadcast like this to be blatantly party political.

    Have you not listened to Nicola Sturgeon recently
    Yeah, and all the hypocrites on here bleating endlessly about it.
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