The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
Though Hartlepool already saw a 4.8% swing in 2019. Now its predicting another 8% swing on top of that for a 12.8% swing.
Did the rest of the Red Wall or the subsequent national polling tell us that? Don Valley fell on an 8% swing. Wakefield on a 6.1% swing.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
80 seat majority was the last time he "fucked up badly"?
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
Remoaners is a fair term to describe a certain type of person. The FBPE 3.5% sort on Twitter with 12 golden stars in their handle who react with horror at "flagshaggers" whenever they see a Union Jack.
I'm not sure what that 3.5% is meant to be? Maybe the polling percentage they aspire to represent?
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
80 seat majority was the last time he "fucked up badly"?
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
I believe this poll. In fact I'm surprised it's close. People yearn for a patriotic Social Democratic government. They think they have it now. How this will play in Chesham and Amersham God alone knows.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
I actually don’t mean that word pejoratively. It’s just a handy way to describe people so outraged by Brexit they will vote for the party - any party - best placed to beat Boris. That is nearly always Labour these days in England (esp as they are led by 2nd referendum supporting Starmer)
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
Remoaners is a fair term to describe a certain type of person. The FBPE sort on Twitter with 12 golden stars in their handle who react with horror at "flagshaggers" whenever they see a Union Jack.
He was implying that was the membership of Labour and its voters. But that’s not the case for the majority I can assure you.
That Hartlepool poll - and how it is being framed - makes a Labour victory from here a significant achievement for Starmer. I doubt it will happen given the vaccine boost that the Tories and Johnson are getting, but if it does it will probably be more of a boost for Starmer's leadership than would otherwise have been the case.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
I actually don’t mean that word pejoratively. It’s just a handy way to describe people so outraged by Brexit they will vote for the party - any party - best placed to beat Boris. That is nearly always Labour these days in England (esp as they are led by 2nd referendum supporting Starmer)
Fine but most Labour members and voters aren’t like this. I can assure you
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
Remoaners is a fair term to describe a certain type of person. The FBPE sort on Twitter with 12 golden stars in their handle who react with horror at "flagshaggers" whenever they see a Union Jack.
He was implying that was the membership of Labour and its voters. But that’s not the case for the majority I can assure you.
That, students and minorities he said. He missed out public sector which is surely the largest element.
Public sector, students, minorities and "Remoaners" probably do make up a very significant proportion of the Labour vote now. Labour need to find a way to appeal to others that doesn't cover because "client vote" won't be enough to win.
That Hartlepool poll - and how it is being framed - makes a Labour victory from here a significant achievement for Starmer. I doubt it will happen given the vaccine boost that the Tories and Johnson are getting, but if it does it will probably be more of a boost for Starmer's leadership than would otherwise have been the case.
Yeah. I mentioned earlier this was not possibly the narrative Conservatives would have wished for.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But is it, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
When you call people Remoaners you undermine your point. But I mostly agree with the substance of it.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
80 seat majority was the last time he "fucked up badly"?
He fucked up London, as an example.
The Olympics were great. And London didn't slide into the Thames.
From the scream of the luvvies who were going to leave London if he won, you would confidently have expected otherwise.
Starmer needs to convert those don’t knows/neutrals to positives. He’s still unknown to a lot of people which could be good or very very very bad
Ove the past year he's succeeded in converting don't knows/neutrals to negatives so far. The positives now are only just below where he started, but the negatives are much, much higher.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
So what, now, is Labour’s core? From which they rebuild? It’s obviously not Scotland. Increasingly it’s not Wales. The north of England is eroding fast. Southern England is a foreign land to them.
That leaves London and a few big cities. Maybe some studenty towns? But they could go Green
Perhaps it’s time Labour just dissolved itself. A party based on the needs of the British urban proletariat of the early 20th century no longer has a reason to exist.
To be fair to Labour, they are not the only big European party facing an existential menace
Would have preferred more questions on how sure they were on their vote and what parties they were considering rather than whether the people of Hartlepool wanted free Broadband.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
I believe this poll. In fact I'm surprised it's close. People yearn for a patriotic Social Democratic government. They think they have it now. How this will play in Chesham and Amersham God alone knows.
I shall tell you. The Tories will win Chesham because no one with a mortgage or a job or a tax bill has forgotten the possibility of prime minister Jeremy Stalin Hezbollah Corbyn.
Labour Ratnered the brand, with Corbyn, in much of Britain. And it will take a decade to erase the stain
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
So what, now, is Labour’s core? From which they rebuild? It’s obviously not Scotland. Increasingly it’s not Wales. The north of England is eroding fast. Southern England is a foreign land to them.
That leaves London and a few big cities. Maybe some studenty towns? But they could go Green
Perhaps it’s time Labour just dissolved itself. A party based on the needs of the British urban proletariat of the early 20th century no longer has a reason to exist.
To be fair to Labour, they are not the only big European party facing an existential menace
Tbf Teesside is a particular area . There are other areas of the North. It's nearly twice the population of London.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
So what, now, is Labour’s core? From which they rebuild? It’s obviously not Scotland. Increasingly it’s not Wales. The north of England is eroding fast. Southern England is a foreign land to them.
That leaves London and a few big cities. Maybe some studenty towns? But they could go Green
Perhaps it’s time Labour just dissolved itself. A party based on the needs of the British urban proletariat of the early 20th century no longer has a reason to exist.
To be fair to Labour, they are not the only big European party facing an existential menace
All very fair questions. I don't think that a party getting over 30% of the vote come what may is going out of business, but Labour clearly isn't working right now as an alternative choice for government. My one caveat is that it would be helpful to see how things pan out post-vaccine, post-lockdown and post-furlough. The Tories are clearly massive favourites to win the next election, but I am not sure it is yet set in stone. As we have seen over the last year, things can change pretty quickly.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
I believe this poll. In fact I'm surprised it's close. People yearn for a patriotic Social Democratic government. They think they have it now. How this will play in Chesham and Amersham God alone knows.
I shall tell you. The Tories will win Chesham because no one with a mortgage or a job or a tax bill has forgotten the possibility of prime minister Jeremy Stalin Hezbollah Corbyn.
Labour Ratnered the brand, with Corbyn, in much of Britain. And it will take a decade to erase the stain
Almost certainly. But that will be inertia. We have reached a great re-alignment. The PM will eventually run out of other people's money. And then the wokies will feast on your brains... Decades, maybe.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
So what, now, is Labour’s core? From which they rebuild? It’s obviously not Scotland. Increasingly it’s not Wales. The north of England is eroding fast. Southern England is a foreign land to them.
That leaves London and a few big cities. Maybe some studenty towns? But they could go Green
Perhaps it’s time Labour just dissolved itself. A party based on the needs of the British urban proletariat of the early 20th century no longer has a reason to exist.
To be fair to Labour, they are not the only big European party facing an existential menace
Tbf Teesside is a particular area . There are other areas of the North. It's nearly twice the population of London.
Remarkably if this does switch the blues then the Tories will have gone from 1 out of 6 constituencies in Cleveland, to 4 out of 6 - and of the two remaining Labour seats, even Stockton North could potentially be considered a marginal on the Tory target list.
The mayor of London is to launch a review examining the feasibility of decriminalising cannabis as part of a new approach to tackling drug-related crime.
Should he be re-elected on 6 May, Sadiq Khan said he would set up an independent London drugs commission to examine the potential health, economic and criminal justice benefits of decriminalising the class-B drug.
Sounds sensible
Cannabis causes mental illness in many people. Not a good idea IMO.
If you want to decriminalise a readily alternative drug, coke is almost certainly less harmful. I've worked with a lot of lads who smoke weed, they all end up paranoid and psychotic after a few years, pretty much without exception. For those (the majority) who don't get wildly addicted, the odd line of coke doesn't seem to do much damage.
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
So what, now, is Labour’s core? From which they rebuild? It’s obviously not Scotland. Increasingly it’s not Wales. The north of England is eroding fast. Southern England is a foreign land to them.
That leaves London and a few big cities. Maybe some studenty towns? But they could go Green
Perhaps it’s time Labour just dissolved itself. A party based on the needs of the British urban proletariat of the early 20th century no longer has a reason to exist.
To be fair to Labour, they are not the only big European party facing an existential menace
All very fair questions. I don't think that a party getting over 30% of the vote come what may is going out of business, but Labour clearly isn't working right now as an alternative choice for government. My one caveat is that it would be helpful to see how things pan out post-vaccine, post-lockdown and post-furlough. The Tories are clearly massive favourites to win the next election, but I am not sure it is yet set in stone. As we have seen over the last year, things can change pretty quickly.
The German greens are a pretty good model for a modern British opposition to this Tory party, which is now squatting in the middle, yet using the culture wars to demolish the left
It does need a charismatic leader tho. The genius of Blair was his ability to embody optimism and hope, and persuade you that Labour had changed, in a nice way, without promising anything in particular at all
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
Starmer is going nowhere as Labour leader. He is as entrenched as Corbyn was.
The mayor of London is to launch a review examining the feasibility of decriminalising cannabis as part of a new approach to tackling drug-related crime.
Should he be re-elected on 6 May, Sadiq Khan said he would set up an independent London drugs commission to examine the potential health, economic and criminal justice benefits of decriminalising the class-B drug.
Sounds sensible
Cannabis causes mental illness in many people. Not a good idea IMO.
If you want to decriminalise a readily alternative drug, coke is almost certainly less harmful. I've worked with a lot of lads who smoke weed, they all end up paranoid and psychotic after a few years, pretty much without exception. For those (the majority) who don't get wildly addicted, the odd line of coke doesn't seem to do much damage.
Yes, but there's genuinely nothing worse than being stuck in a room with a bunch of cokeheads who won't stop talking. At least the stoners keep themselves to themselves.
The mayor of London is to launch a review examining the feasibility of decriminalising cannabis as part of a new approach to tackling drug-related crime.
Should he be re-elected on 6 May, Sadiq Khan said he would set up an independent London drugs commission to examine the potential health, economic and criminal justice benefits of decriminalising the class-B drug.
Sounds sensible
Cannabis causes mental illness in many people. Not a good idea IMO.
If you want to decriminalise a readily alternative drug, coke is almost certainly less harmful. I've worked with a lot of lads who smoke weed, they all end up paranoid and psychotic after a few years, pretty much without exception. For those (the majority) who don't get wildly addicted, the odd line of coke doesn't seem to do much damage.
Don't smoke weed, snort a line instead. Have you thought of being Boris' drug adviser? Hits the populist sweet spot.
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
The poll implies that circa 40% of those polled failed to give a Voting Intention.
Pretty much matches what I recalled from school. Or playing computer games set in the era like Victoria.
Not sure what her point is though? Was the 'scramble for Africa' supposed to be a state secret?
It just tells me Cecil Rhodes was right. Tanganyika was the key. Secure that for Britain and we basically owned all the best bits of Africa, and we could run a railway from Cairo to Cape Town
Remind me again, why did we give it all back? Madness
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
Nah. Spot on. Underestimating if owt.
Hmm, entirely possible. If the poll is underestimating Johnson's personal ratings in the old Labour heartlands then we're in for a 'fun' decade.
The mayor of London is to launch a review examining the feasibility of decriminalising cannabis as part of a new approach to tackling drug-related crime.
Should he be re-elected on 6 May, Sadiq Khan said he would set up an independent London drugs commission to examine the potential health, economic and criminal justice benefits of decriminalising the class-B drug.
Sounds sensible
Cannabis causes mental illness in many people. Not a good idea IMO.
If you want to decriminalise a readily alternative drug, coke is almost certainly less harmful. I've worked with a lot of lads who smoke weed, they all end up paranoid and psychotic after a few years, pretty much without exception. For those (the majority) who don't get wildly addicted, the odd line of coke doesn't seem to do much damage.
Anecdotally coke abusers are much, much worse IMO.
Stoners might become paranoid and lethargic but cokeheads in my experience can get very aggressive.
I'd rather be dealing with a stoner than a cokehead.
I've tried the former, in the Netherlands, didn't like it. I would never try the latter.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
I believe this poll. In fact I'm surprised it's close. People yearn for a patriotic Social Democratic government. They think they have it now. How this will play in Chesham and Amersham God alone knows.
I shall tell you. The Tories will win Chesham because no one with a mortgage or a job or a tax bill has forgotten the possibility of prime minister Jeremy Stalin Hezbollah Corbyn.
Labour Ratnered the brand, with Corbyn, in much of Britain. And it will take a decade to erase the stain
I think the LDs will do very well in Chesham & Amersham, with most Labour and Green voters going to them, and the Tory vote could fall a bit from 55% to about 50%.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
If you define "nearly lost" as 81 million votes to 74 million for the madman...
She's got Mauretania (French) mixed up with Western Sahara (Spanish).
Also Britain owned a chunk of Somaliland depicted as ‘Italian’ there
Quite frankly, I’m insulted. Our absurdly lavish imperial possessions were even more grotesquely expansive than she suggests, yet she tries to hide it?
I detect a hidden agenda. Underplaying the impact of Empire. She’s probably from Roedean
Pretty much matches what I recalled from school. Or playing computer games set in the era like Victoria.
Not sure what her point is though? Was the 'scramble for Africa' supposed to be a state secret?
It just tells me Cecil Rhodes was right. Tanganyika was the key. Secure that for Britain and we basically owned all the best bits of Africa, and we could run a railway from Cairo to Cape Town
Remind me again, why did we give it all back? Madness
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
Nah. Spot on. Underestimating if owt.
Hmm, entirely possible. If the poll is underestimating Johnson's personal ratings in the old Labour heartlands then we're in for a 'fun' decade.
The Japanification of British politics continues.
Disagree about Japanification. The LDP actively brings all views in. Reckon we are heading for another decade of Tory rule. Followed by a cataclysmic defeat like 1997. When wokeistas and sound money fans will unite and take over. In tutus and hair shirts.
Pretty much matches what I recalled from school. Or playing computer games set in the era like Victoria.
Not sure what her point is though? Was the 'scramble for Africa' supposed to be a state secret?
It just tells me Cecil Rhodes was right. Tanganyika was the key. Secure that for Britain and we basically owned all the best bits of Africa, and we could run a railway from Cairo to Cape Town
Remind me again, why did we give it all back? Madness
Yebbut Empire is undemocratic.
How dare the Romans invade Britain in 54AD, and the Normans in 1066.
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
Nah. Spot on. Underestimating if owt.
Hmm, entirely possible. If the poll is underestimating Johnson's personal ratings in the old Labour heartlands then we're in for a 'fun' decade.
The Japanification of British politics continues.
Disagree about Japanification. The LDP actively brings all views in. Reckon we are heading for another decade of Tory rule. Followed by a cataclysmic defeat like 1997. When wokeistas and sound money fans will unite and take over. In tutus and hair shirts.
Considering the Tories in England got a higher share of the vote than Blair at his peak, or the SNP got in Scotland, and the Tories are deliberately targeting what would not traditionally be considered Tory views then "actively brings all views in" seems fair for the Tory party too?
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
Agree. I still think Labour will win Hartlepool by a smallish margin.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
I believe this poll. In fact I'm surprised it's close. People yearn for a patriotic Social Democratic government. They think they have it now. How this will play in Chesham and Amersham God alone knows.
I shall tell you. The Tories will win Chesham because no one with a mortgage or a job or a tax bill has forgotten the possibility of prime minister Jeremy Stalin Hezbollah Corbyn.
Labour Ratnered the brand, with Corbyn, in much of Britain. And it will take a decade to erase the stain
I think the LDs will do very well in Chesham & Amersham, with most Labour and Green voters going to them, and the Tory vote could fall a bit from 55% to about 50%.
I think that's probably right: I'd reckon the most likely outcome is 52/40/6/...
I don't believe this poll, I don't think it passes the smell test. While I think Johnson is performing better with the electorate than many commentators assume, that kind of massive lead over Starmer seems unrealistic. I suspect there may be problems with the poll weighting and difficulty reaching younger voters.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
Nah. Spot on. Underestimating if owt.
Hmm, entirely possible. If the poll is underestimating Johnson's personal ratings in the old Labour heartlands then we're in for a 'fun' decade.
The Japanification of British politics continues.
Disagree about Japanification. The LDP actively brings all views in. Reckon we are heading for another decade of Tory rule. Followed by a cataclysmic defeat like 1997. When wokeistas and sound money fans will unite and take over. In tutus and hair shirts.
Considering the Tories in England got a higher share of the vote than Blair at his peak, or the SNP got in Scotland, and the Tories are deliberately targeting what would not traditionally be considered Tory views then "actively brings all views in" seems fair for the Tory party too?
Possibly. Actively doesn't exclude may be better phrasing.
I’ve always been confident about the Tories having the edge in Hartlepool, thought it will probably be close (sub 2k winning margin either way).
As well as Houchen giving the Tories a strong local track record those BXP votes will fall into the blue corner simply because 18 months ago a lot of leavers didn’t know if they could trust the Tories and what sort of Brexit a slippery Boris might deliver. Now that it’s happened and he’s got us out the EU without much of a fudge he’s won the trust of a lot of 2019 BXP voters and will be suitably rewarded.
In such a tight contest for Labour to pick a remain candidate as divisive as Paul Williams really beggars belief. Starmer should have been all over candidate selection from the day Mike Hill resigned.
So what's the 'he has to go' level result for Starmer?
Lab losing Hartlepool, Tees Valley Mayor/West Mids Mayor, moving back from the awful 2016/7 results (Co. Durham, Warrington etc lost), Lab not being biggest party in Wales?
(FWIW my opinion is that he'll escape credit/blame for Wales, and his supporters will claim a rally around the flag effect for Cons)
However the big issue is that 11 years into a Conservative Government that has overseen two separate recessions, Labour are still on a desperate defensive in their, formerly, unshakeable heartlands.
The LDs won't really get 1%. It'll be between 3% and 5%. From experience of previous by-elections.
Oh, I think they could easily end up sub-2%. Don't forget their entire focus is going to be on Chesham and Amersham plus the local elections. They could easily be squeezed to negligible levels in Hartlepool.
She's got Mauretania (French) mixed up with Western Sahara (Spanish).
Also Britain owned a chunk of Somaliland depicted as ‘Italian’ there
Quite frankly, I’m insulted. Our absurdly lavish imperial possessions were even more grotesquely expansive than she suggests, yet she tries to hide it?
I detect a hidden agenda. Underplaying the impact of Empire. She’s probably from Roedean
Yeah, northern Somalia was British Somaliland 1884 to 1960 (and has been de facto independent as "Somaliland" since the 1990s). The rest of Somalia was effectively British 1941 to 1950 (given back to Italy 1950-1960).
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
So what, now, is Labour’s core? From which they rebuild? It’s obviously not Scotland. Increasingly it’s not Wales. The north of England is eroding fast. Southern England is a foreign land to them.
That leaves London and a few big cities. Maybe some studenty towns? But they could go Green
Perhaps it’s time Labour just dissolved itself. A party based on the needs of the British urban proletariat of the early 20th century no longer has a reason to exist.
To be fair to Labour, they are not the only big European party facing an existential menace
All very fair questions. I don't think that a party getting over 30% of the vote come what may is going out of business, but Labour clearly isn't working right now as an alternative choice for government. My one caveat is that it would be helpful to see how things pan out post-vaccine, post-lockdown and post-furlough. The Tories are clearly massive favourites to win the next election, but I am not sure it is yet set in stone. As we have seen over the last year, things can change pretty quickly.
The German greens are a pretty good model for a modern British opposition to this Tory party, which is now squatting in the middle, yet using the culture wars to demolish the left
It does need a charismatic leader tho. The genius of Blair was his ability to embody optimism and hope, and persuade you that Labour had changed, in a nice way, without promising anything in particular at all
The poll is junk. Too small a sample size, plus prompting for a joke party most won't have heard exists or won't take seriously if they have. The clue is probably in who commissioned it (The CWU, so basically the SWP). It tells us Labour and the Tories are both somewhere in the 40s or low 50s and that it'll be a tricky hold for Labour. Which we knew already.
That's not to say Labour don't have massive problems, which fundamentally have little to do with Starmer, other than being the reason he was elected - someone who does the basics of leadership well while offering a veneer of unity. Which brings us to the main problem. Different bits of the Labour Party genuinely hate each other as much as they do the Tories. It's a fractured entity. It's pretty impossible to bring together people who think Jeremy Corbyn is the devil incarnate and those who think he's an unfairly maligned messiah. It's difficult to offer a pitch to people who abandoned the party because of its liberal, metropolitan focus, while for lots of its members that's the entire point. Numerous issues, from trans rights to Europe divide the left several ways, and most importantly one side often thinks the other is not just wrong but unforgivably so.
The good news is that it won't last forever. People will grow up and get fed up of losing. Certain issues will work themselves out, and Corbyn will probably do something eventually that embarrasses even Owen Jones. But for the moment Labour is in a bad place. Which is essentially the point of Keir Starmer. A grownup who makes it a rather more plausible governing party than it would otherwise be, while it works through its issues. That's probably not enough to beat a rampant Tory Party yet, but it will get there eventually.
I think the only positive for Starmer is the CWU commissioned it but I don’t believe it’s junk, just perhaps exaggerates the Tory lead somewhat. Similarly while you’d ideally want more than 500 for your sample I wouldn’t dismiss a constituency poll unless the sample size was sub 400 people.
With the ongoing vaccine bounce and nothing left for the main parties to squeeze votes will be firming up. Turnout fluctuations and high postal votes during a pandemic are unknowns that might yet favour one of the main parties though.
I think the only positive for Starmer is the CWU commissioned it but I don’t believe it’s junk, just perhaps exaggerates the Tory lead somewhat. Similarly while you’d ideally want more than 500 for your sample I wouldn’t dismiss a constituency poll unless the sample size was sub 400 people.
With the ongoing vaccine bounce and nothing left for the main parties to squeeze votes will be firming up. Turnout fluctuations and high postal votes during a pandemic are unknowns that might yet favour one of the main parties though.
The number of respondents to the VI question was 302. So sub 400. There's a rough MOE of +/-7% before we get to potential other issues. It may well be right - before I saw it I thought Labour would face a tough, unpredictable fight - but I'd certainly wait for other, more solid polling than this before jumping to any conclusion, as in that situation we are talking about informed guesswork.
Told you all, didn't I? Will I ever get a big call wrong? One day I will - but the wait goes on.
The core reasoning again. This is the capital of WWC Leave and the Cons own that (very strong) political identity right now. They would have won this seat at the GE without the BXP intervention. NIP helps them too. The Cons are big favs and the evens was an absolute steal.
Lab are by no means out of it but a win for them here would be an upset and would be fantastic news for Starmer.
Comments
Did the rest of the Red Wall or the subsequent national polling tell us that? Don Valley fell on an 8% swing. Wakefield on a 6.1% swing.
However, Biden did manage to win votes in the right places. Starmer should look to him for inspiration and/or hope Johnson fucks up badly (again)
Jesus that’s not good at all.
However, 15% of people don’t know/hasn’t heard of Starmer? After a year?
I'm not sure what that 3.5% is meant to be? Maybe the polling percentage they aspire to represent?
How this will play in Chesham and Amersham God alone knows.
Exercise caution.
By my reckoning that would give a MOE of close to 6%.
Public sector, students, minorities and "Remoaners" probably do make up a very significant proportion of the Labour vote now. Labour need to find a way to appeal to others that doesn't cover because "client vote" won't be enough to win.
People don't pay attention to politics in the way we do.
Remember back in 2014/15 you and I regularly scoffed at the figures Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling produced for a reason.
From the scream of the luvvies who were going to leave London if he won, you would confidently have expected otherwise.
So what, now, is Labour’s core? From which they rebuild? It’s obviously not Scotland. Increasingly it’s not Wales. The north of England is eroding fast. Southern England is a foreign land to them.
That leaves London and a few big cities. Maybe some studenty towns? But they could go Green
Perhaps it’s time Labour just dissolved itself. A party based on the needs of the British urban proletariat of the early 20th century no longer has a reason to exist.
To be fair to Labour, they are not the only big European party facing an existential menace
How many people couldn't identify Cameron?
Labour Ratnered the brand, with Corbyn, in much of Britain. And it will take a decade to erase the stain
There are other areas of the North.
It's nearly twice the population of London.
https://twitter.com/ClaudiaWebbe/status/1379154026286227463
Edit - just checked, it was 5% who couldn't identify Cameron.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2013/05/10/not-so-famous-faces
We have reached a great re-alignment. The PM will eventually run out of other people's money. And then the wokies will feast on your brains...
Decades, maybe.
Would never have imagined that a few years ago.
That being said - if it's anywhere near accurate, and Labour loses Hartlepool by ~7 points, that really is the death knell for Starmer.
squatting in the middle, yet using the culture wars to demolish the left
It does need a charismatic leader tho. The genius of Blair was his ability to embody optimism and hope, and persuade you that Labour had changed, in a nice way, without promising anything in particular at all
Pretty much matches what I recalled from school. Or playing computer games set in the era like Victoria.
Not sure what her point is though? Was the 'scramble for Africa' supposed to be a state secret?
Have you thought of being Boris' drug adviser?
Hits the populist sweet spot.
Remind me again, why did we give it all back? Madness
The Japanification of British politics continues.
Stoners might become paranoid and lethargic but cokeheads in my experience can get very aggressive.
I'd rather be dealing with a stoner than a cokehead.
I've tried the former, in the Netherlands, didn't like it. I would never try the latter.
Quite frankly, I’m insulted. Our absurdly lavish imperial possessions were even more grotesquely expansive than she suggests, yet she tries to hide it?
I detect a hidden agenda. Underplaying the impact of Empire. She’s probably from Roedean
Reckon we are heading for another decade of Tory rule. Followed by a cataclysmic defeat like 1997.
When wokeistas and sound money fans will unite and take over.
In tutus and hair shirts.
As well as Houchen giving the Tories a strong local track record those BXP votes will fall into the blue corner simply because 18 months ago a lot of leavers didn’t know if they could trust the Tories and what sort of Brexit a slippery Boris might deliver. Now that it’s happened and he’s got us out the EU without much of a fudge he’s won the trust of a lot of 2019 BXP voters and will be suitably rewarded.
In such a tight contest for Labour to pick a remain candidate as divisive as Paul Williams really beggars belief. Starmer should have been all over candidate selection from the day Mike Hill resigned.
Lab losing Hartlepool, Tees Valley Mayor/West Mids Mayor, moving back from the awful 2016/7 results (Co. Durham, Warrington etc lost), Lab not being biggest party in Wales?
(FWIW my opinion is that he'll escape credit/blame for Wales, and his supporters will claim a rally around the flag effect for Cons)
However the big issue is that 11 years into a Conservative Government that has overseen two separate recessions, Labour are still on a desperate defensive in their, formerly, unshakeable heartlands.
That's not to say Labour don't have massive problems, which fundamentally have little to do with Starmer, other than being the reason he was elected - someone who does the basics of leadership well while offering a veneer of unity. Which brings us to the main problem. Different bits of the Labour Party genuinely hate each other as much as they do the Tories. It's a fractured entity. It's pretty impossible to bring together people who think Jeremy Corbyn is the devil incarnate and those who think he's an unfairly maligned messiah. It's difficult to offer a pitch to people who abandoned the party because of its liberal, metropolitan focus, while for lots of its members that's the entire point. Numerous issues, from trans rights to Europe divide the left several ways, and most importantly one side often thinks the other is not just wrong but unforgivably so.
The good news is that it won't last forever. People will grow up and get fed up of losing. Certain issues will work themselves out, and Corbyn will probably do something eventually that embarrasses even Owen Jones. But for the moment Labour is in a bad place. Which is essentially the point of Keir Starmer. A grownup who makes it a rather more plausible governing party than it would otherwise be, while it works through its issues. That's probably not enough to beat a rampant Tory Party yet, but it will get there eventually.
With the ongoing vaccine bounce and nothing left for the main parties to squeeze votes will be firming up. Turnout fluctuations and high postal votes during a pandemic are unknowns that might yet favour one of the main parties though.
Strong Lib Dem opposition to vaccine passports has taken them to the heady heights of .......... 1% in Hartlepool.
Has there ever been a day when PB posters were more out of touch with the public than yesterday?
Told you all, didn't I? Will I ever get a big call wrong? One day I will - but the wait goes on.
The core reasoning again. This is the capital of WWC Leave and the Cons own that (very strong) political identity right now. They would have won this seat at the GE without the BXP intervention. NIP helps them too. The Cons are big favs and the evens was an absolute steal.
Lab are by no means out of it but a win for them here would be an upset and would be fantastic news for Starmer.
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