When Survation publish their polling data check out two things
1) Sample size
2) How many of the people in the sample actually gave a VI.
Do sample sizes matter?!
Yes, and alongside proper weightings.
Difficult to see how you can have proper weightings tbh for many polls when to get a fair sample you need to be able to poll a fair proportion of those you can never poll. I suspect the vaxport polls fall into this category. Those that don't like them are also probably the ones you cant contact easily
In regards phone polls, they clearly don’t really get anyone under the age of about 40 since we don’t use landlines. However, does it really matter since we don’t vote anyway?
Hello ! Person under 40 with a landline. We exist, where mobile reception is sh*t. Haven’t voted since 2016, though that’s due to postal voting failures by the council rather than apathy.
My apologies, I should have said most don’t. I would think it’s 90/10, haven’t seen the stats lately but it’s low. Very low.
25% of 18-34yo have one. So probably a touch higher for under-40s.
Interestingly, it has landline ownership at 50% for the population as a whole.
Actually that’s just how many pay line rental from a brief look. Those with phones plugged in and actively on I suspect is a lot lower.
It says its how many have and use the landline.
I pay line rental but don't use it, so would fall within the 75%. Actually I wouldn't since under 40 but not under 35 they've done as the cut-off, that makes me feel old now.
What does “use” mean? Technically you use the landline when you use broadband.
But there are some serious questions to be asked of the Civil Service too. Jeremy Heywood, according to the emails, played a key role in this. Was what he did proper and ethical? And if not what steps are being taken to ensure something like this won't happen again? After all, there is lots of potentially very profitable business being considered in government right now.
How can we be certain that what happened with Greensill is not happening now?
Given what we have seen on COVID contracts being awarded to mates and donors it's almost a certainty it is happening.
The Greenshill / Gupta affair is going to cast a long shadow over a lot of people's reputations.
In regards phone polls, they clearly don’t really get anyone under the age of about 40 since we don’t use landlines. However, does it really matter since we don’t vote anyway?
Hello ! Person under 40 with a landline. We exist, where mobile reception is sh*t. Haven’t voted since 2016, though that’s due to postal voting failures by the council rather than apathy.
My apologies, I should have said most don’t. I would think it’s 90/10, haven’t seen the stats lately but it’s low. Very low.
25% of 18-34yo have one. So probably a touch higher for under-40s.
Interestingly, it has landline ownership at 50% for the population as a whole.
Actually that’s just how many pay line rental from a brief look. Those with phones plugged in and actively on I suspect is a lot lower.
It says its how many have and use the landline.
I pay line rental but don't use it, so would fall within the 75%. Actually I wouldn't since under 40 but not under 35 they've done as the cut-off, that makes me feel old now.
What does “use” mean? Technically you use the landline when you use broadband.
Given context I think they're defining usage as using it for calls.
The proportion using it for broadband would be much higher than 25% currently.
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency for their phone polls.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
In regards phone polls, they clearly don’t really get anyone under the age of about 40 since we don’t use landlines. However, does it really matter since we don’t vote anyway?
Hello ! Person under 40 with a landline. We exist, where mobile reception is sh*t. Haven’t voted since 2016, though that’s due to postal voting failures by the council rather than apathy.
My apologies, I should have said most don’t. I would think it’s 90/10, haven’t seen the stats lately but it’s low. Very low.
25% of 18-34yo have one. So probably a touch higher for under-40s.
Interestingly, it has landline ownership at 50% for the population as a whole.
Actually that’s just how many pay line rental from a brief look. Those with phones plugged in and actively on I suspect is a lot lower.
It says its how many have and use the landline.
I pay line rental but don't use it, so would fall within the 75%. Actually I wouldn't since under 40 but not under 35 they've done as the cut-off, that makes me feel old now.
What does “use” mean? Technically you use the landline when you use broadband.
Given context I think they're defining usage as using it for calls.
The proportion using it for broadband would be much higher than 25% currently.
Sky boxes at one point required to be connected to a land line, not sure if its still true but that might count as use
Boris has United the Leavers. It is a strong identity. Remainers become ever more divided over time. Be a long, long time before this all unwinds.
Yes. I’m starting to wonder if Labour ever get over this.
As some writer in the Guardian put it (Martin Kettle?) the Tories are becoming the party of England as the SNP have become the party of Scotland. Once people attach, tribally, that way, it is greatly difficult to dislodge (as we see in Scotland). Identity now trumps class. This is the Left’s own doing. It is richly ironic
One day a party will overthrow the Tories down south, just as one day the SNP will be toppled in Holyrood
But as long as Labour is as crippled in the culture wars as it is now, it won’t be them doing any table-turning
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
On personal polling Starmer is doing better than Miliband and Corbyn, and is performing at around the level of Cameron a year in. He has a lot more Don't Know than most of his predecessors as Leader of the Opposition, no doubt as a result of him being far less visible than they were.
He isn’t really doing any differently to Miliband actually. He is doing as badly as Cameron did vs Blair, that’s true, but Dave was lucky enough to get to play Gordon when it mattered.
But his polling is deteriorating quite badly - the don’t knows that have made up their minds are all turning into negatives.
Strange that the CWU would want to release such a poll '“People need and want radical change, and that’s why we’re releasing a poll showing the incumbent Conservative government is growing ever more popular!”
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
In regards phone polls, they clearly don’t really get anyone under the age of about 40 since we don’t use landlines. However, does it really matter since we don’t vote anyway?
Hello ! Person under 40 with a landline. We exist, where mobile reception is sh*t. Haven’t voted since 2016, though that’s due to postal voting failures by the council rather than apathy.
My apologies, I should have said most don’t. I would think it’s 90/10, haven’t seen the stats lately but it’s low. Very low.
25% of 18-34yo have one. So probably a touch higher for under-40s.
Interestingly, it has landline ownership at 50% for the population as a whole.
Actually that’s just how many pay line rental from a brief look. Those with phones plugged in and actively on I suspect is a lot lower.
It says its how many have and use the landline.
I pay line rental but don't use it, so would fall within the 75%. Actually I wouldn't since under 40 but not under 35 they've done as the cut-off, that makes me feel old now.
What does “use” mean? Technically you use the landline when you use broadband.
Given context I think they're defining usage as using it for calls.
The proportion using it for broadband would be much higher than 25% currently.
Use as in how often? A call every week? When? It’s not clear.
To get an idea like I said, the best measure is how many pay for a calling plan.
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
Read the T&Cs when you take out your contract/upgrade.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
In regards phone polls, they clearly don’t really get anyone under the age of about 40 since we don’t use landlines. However, does it really matter since we don’t vote anyway?
Hello ! Person under 40 with a landline. We exist, where mobile reception is sh*t. Haven’t voted since 2016, though that’s due to postal voting failures by the council rather than apathy.
My apologies, I should have said most don’t. I would think it’s 90/10, haven’t seen the stats lately but it’s low. Very low.
25% of 18-34yo have one. So probably a touch higher for under-40s.
Interestingly, it has landline ownership at 50% for the population as a whole.
Actually that’s just how many pay line rental from a brief look. Those with phones plugged in and actively on I suspect is a lot lower.
It says its how many have and use the landline.
I pay line rental but don't use it, so would fall within the 75%. Actually I wouldn't since under 40 but not under 35 they've done as the cut-off, that makes me feel old now.
What does “use” mean? Technically you use the landline when you use broadband.
Given context I think they're defining usage as using it for calls.
The proportion using it for broadband would be much higher than 25% currently.
Sky boxes at one point required to be connected to a land line, not sure if its still true but that might count as use
Not true anymore. Not been true since boxes adopted Wifi as an alternative I suspect.
It wasn't even true when it was "required". I refused to plug mine in, it just meant you had to click away a message telling you that you had to, once you'd dismissed the message you wouldn't see it again until there was a power cut.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, his symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
Use needs to be qualified, it’s not clear. You could come under “use” if you plugged the phone in a few times but don’t have it actively plugged in.
A better metric would be the percentage that pay for a calling plan, that’s far more likely to represent those that actually use the phone.
The only people I know that answer a landline phone are my Dad (85) and my Mum (83). In different houses
My mum, bless her, just can’t handle a smartphone. Doesn’t understand WhatsApp or texts. I don’t get it. What happens to the human brain over 75? These are not challenging tasks
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
On personal polling Starmer is doing better than Miliband and Corbyn, and is performing at around the level of Cameron a year in. He has a lot more Don't Know than most of his predecessors as Leader of the Opposition, no doubt as a result of him being far less visible than they were.
He isn’t really doing any differently to Miliband actually. He is doing as badly as Cameron did vs Blair, that’s true, but Dave was lucky enough to get to play Gordon when it mattered.
But his polling is deteriorating quite badly - the don’t knows that have made up their minds are all turning into negatives.
Yep, he is certainly sliding. But from a very high starting point. I do not see Starmer as the cause of Labour's current polling woes. He may not be able to turn them around, of course.
It's sad - rest in peace. Wee typo 'Gillam' (should be Gillan) in the headline.
Nobody should die of cancer in this day and age.
They're going to die of something, eventually. And if you get cancer, and you're sufficiently old, then the treatment is likely to be rather more dangerous than just letting the disease run its course.
Now, I'm super excited about immunotherapy, and what that will do to cancer rates. But we're all still going to get old. And we're all still going to die.
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The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
Read the T&Cs when you take out your contract/upgrade.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
How anonymised is your data if it includes your number and post code? 🤔
Never had a mobile call from a pollster. If I had, I'd have wondered how they got my number. Twice took a call from one on a landline, once when a child in the nineties and once at work.
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
Read the T&Cs when you take out your contract/upgrade.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
How anonymised is your data if it includes your number and post code? 🤔
Never had a mobile call from a pollster. If I had, I'd have wondered how they got my number. Twice took a call from one on a landline, once when a child in the nineties and once at work.
If I were to guess it would be the first half of the postcode only.
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
Read the T&Cs when you take out your contract/upgrade.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
How anonymised is your data if it includes your number and post code? 🤔
Never had a mobile call from a pollster. If I had, I'd have wondered how they got my number. Twice took a call from one on a landline, once when a child in the nineties and once at work.
It is the first 4 characters of your postcode.
So if you lived in central Manchester postcode and your postcode is M60 4LX then o2/EE/Vodafone would sell it as your number and M60 4.
The pollsters only need your first 4 characters to work out your constituency.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
On personal polling Starmer is doing better than Miliband and Corbyn, and is performing at around the level of Cameron a year in. He has a lot more Don't Know than most of his predecessors as Leader of the Opposition, no doubt as a result of him being far less visible than they were.
He isn’t really doing any differently to Miliband actually. He is doing as badly as Cameron did vs Blair, that’s true, but Dave was lucky enough to get to play Gordon when it mattered.
But his polling is deteriorating quite badly - the don’t knows that have made up their minds are all turning into negatives.
Yep, he is certainly sliding. But from a very high starting point. I do not see Starmer as the cause of Labour's current polling woes. He may not be able to turn them around, of course.
Losing to Ed on positives, edging the net sat at this stage.
But there are some serious questions to be asked of the Civil Service too. Jeremy Heywood, according to the emails, played a key role in this. Was what he did proper and ethical? And if not what steps are being taken to ensure something like this won't happen again? After all, there is lots of potentially very profitable business being considered in government right now.
How can we be certain that what happened with Greensill is not happening now?
Given what we have seen on COVID contracts being awarded to mates and donors it's almost a certainty it is happening.
The Greenshill / Gupta affair is going to cast a long shadow over a lot of people's reputations.
It should but I fear Heywood and Cameron will be blamed exclusively
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
On personal polling Starmer is doing better than Miliband and Corbyn, and is performing at around the level of Cameron a year in. He has a lot more Don't Know than most of his predecessors as Leader of the Opposition, no doubt as a result of him being far less visible than they were.
He isn’t really doing any differently to Miliband actually. He is doing as badly as Cameron did vs Blair, that’s true, but Dave was lucky enough to get to play Gordon when it mattered.
But his polling is deteriorating quite badly - the don’t knows that have made up their minds are all turning into negatives.
Yep, he is certainly sliding. But from a very high starting point. I do not see Starmer as the cause of Labour's current polling woes. He may not be able to turn them around, of course.
He is neither cause nor cure. If the UK suffers a sensational post-plague slump he may luck out. I doubt it. I think we’re in for a stimulus-induced boom, which may end badly, but won’t end for a few years. The roaring 20s again
Labour needs to work out what it stands for. It is far from obvious. Identity politics has run its course. Tax and spend has been taken by the Tories, in the name of post-pandemic Brexiteering patriotism (with total cynicism)
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
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All the other MNOs have something similar
Surely partners and contractors for market research means getting research about eg your satisfaction with their service etc - not to be sold on for market research companies to do whatever they please, whenever they please?
Was the point where Labour lead due to the Tory vote being depressed and it’s now returned to its ceiling, or has Labour also gone backwards?
I do not believe for second Starmer will do worse than Corbyn
The polls at this stage are rather meaningless. We have no idea what the two manifestos are going to be for a start.
But we know who the salesman probably will be - that is the point I am trying to make with my posts about charisma and personality etc. Boris can dazzle, I don’t think Sir Keir can. So Labour need to be well ahead to compensate for the inevitable Tory surge during the campaign.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
But to take Hartlepool implies a National Tory lead of 20%. To win Hartlepool by 7% implies a Tory lead of 27%. We are not seeing that currently!
Was the point where Labour lead due to the Tory vote being depressed and it’s now returned to its ceiling, or has Labour also gone backwards?
I do not believe for second Starmer will do worse than Corbyn
The polls at this stage are rather meaningless. We have no idea what the two manifestos are going to be for a start.
I find you and HYUFD increasingly the most interesting on this topic.
You might have be confused with someone else. I try not to read too much into them at the moment.
No I didn’t. What I mean is that you aren’t on here bleating the usual Johnson landslide Starmer is rubbish stuff. That makes you more interesting to read as you’re as I recall a Tory voter
The surge in support for the Conservatives is partly explained by the popularity of the prime minister among voters in Hartlepool, twice as many of whom (49 per cent) have a favourable view of him than Starmer (24 per cent).
Unlike the prime minister, who has a positive net favourability rating of 19 per cent, Starmer has a negative favourability score of minus 12 per cent.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
But to take Hartlepool implies a National Tory lead of 20%. To win Hartlepool by 7% implies a Tory lead of 27%. We are not seeing that currently!
Does that account for the absence of the Brexit party?
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
Well. Also yes.
But when Labour led and Starmer was doing well in the ratings, it was apparently because he was such a great leader, with the party ‘under new management’ , not because thousands of people were dying and everyone was locked indoors.
@kinabalu will be winning my bet with him if so, a bet I'll be happy to lose, but I really don't believe it.
May I ask why not? 49% was at the low end of my expectations. And 42 % at the high. The Conservatives are the hard Leave anti-woke, get back to a proper job you Online slackers Party now. For good or ill.
The surge in support for the Conservatives is partly explained by the popularity of the prime minister among voters in Hartlepool, twice as many of whom (49 per cent) have a favourable view of him than Starmer (24 per cent).
Unlike the prime minister, who has a positive net favourability rating of 19 per cent, Starmer has a negative favourability score of minus 12 per cent.
Does Starmer have the usual high don’t know count? We need that
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
Read the T&Cs when you take out your contract/upgrade.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
How anonymised is your data if it includes your number and post code? 🤔
Never had a mobile call from a pollster. If I had, I'd have wondered how they got my number. Twice took a call from one on a landline, once when a child in the nineties and once at work.
It is the first 4 characters of your postcode.
So if you lived in central Manchester postcode and your postcode is M60 4LX then o2/EE/Vodafone would sell it as your number and M60 4.
The pollsters only need your first 4 characters to work out your constituency.
Looking at Sky's contract, it doesn't seem to give them permission to do that, though I'm not a lawyer. I don't see anything there giving them carte blanche to sell it on to market research companies for them to use for their own purposes, rather than Sky's purposes.
Was the point where Labour lead due to the Tory vote being depressed and it’s now returned to its ceiling, or has Labour also gone backwards?
I do not believe for second Starmer will do worse than Corbyn
The polls at this stage are rather meaningless. We have no idea what the two manifestos are going to be for a start.
I find you and HYUFD increasingly the most interesting on this topic.
You might have be confused with someone else. I try not to read too much into them at the moment.
No I didn’t. What I mean is that you aren’t on here bleating the usual Johnson landslide Starmer is rubbish stuff. That makes you more interesting to read as you’re as I recall a Tory voter
I can believe the poll. For me it was clear this always going to be a multi year project and that a 2024 victory was always unlikely. To make progress was the minimum Starmer had to do in my eyes.
But then I’m not deluded like some of the Corbyn fanboys that are still left
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
One of Starmers biggest flaws is the team he has around him. A lot of the big hitters are on the back benches, or in low grade shadow jobs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
I am not a member (though Mrs Foxy is) so I don't get a say. Personally I like Angela Rayner, who is a deft politician and could be quite a difficult one for Johnson. She is a smart cookie, one should never mistake lack of formal education for lack of intelligence.
Yvette Cooper is good on the Liason committee, and her New Labour days are the very distant past now. She has a wit and sparkle that works well and a husband increasingly recognised as a National Treasure.
Who are Labour's "big hitters"?
And not the leftover scraps remaining from Gordon Brown's time of office over a decade ago. When the Tories were getting ready to be capable of regaining office they had big hitters that weren't in Parliament when Major left office like Osborne.
Labour don't just need their Cameron, they need their Osborne and others too. Who is that? It certainly doesn't seem to be Starmer or Dodds.
There aren’t any. Corbyn saw to that.
I think we all forget what an utter mess Starmer was left with. It will take some time, and after Brexit and a pandemic, boring and relatively sensible may just do it.
Starmer is, we should not forget, quite an inexperienced politician. Only in Parliament since 2015. No doubt he has been in the Labour Party for longer but given that he spent most of that time under Corbyn painfully triangulating an incomprehensible policy on Brexit, he's not really had time to learn all the other essential political skills a leader needs. Like working out what he believes in and how to persuade people.
My own view is that is was Starmer’s refusal to accept the referendum result that gave Boris the opportunity to win as big as he did in 2019.
Remainers want the blame to be at Corbyn’s door, despite the 41% he got in 2017 when Labour accepted Brexit, and they can’t be seen to be praising Boris for being successful. I think that is why there is such a reluctance to talk about how poorly Sir Keir is doing - it is tantamount to admitting that it might have been the popularity of Brexit & Boris, not the unpopularity of Jez, wot won it for the Tories, and that won’t do
Quite. It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, its symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms. But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
The current Tory polling lead and Johnson's jump in ratings tie in pretty closely to the roll-out of the vaccine. When you get to go on live TV on a regular basis to deliver very good news - and people also experience it - you are going to be popular. I am surprised anyone is surprised by this. Labour is currently entirely irrelevant to the national conversation and for that reason is pretty much invisible. A Blair may have prevented that, but Blairs do not come around very often.
Well. Also yes.
But when Labour led and Starmer was doing well in the ratings, it was apparently because he was such a great leader, with the party ‘under new management’ , not because thousands of people were dying and everyone was locked indoors.
@kinabalu will be winning my bet with him if so, a bet I'll be happy to lose, but I really don't believe it.
May I ask why not?
Constituency polls are notoriously inaccurate. See: 2015.
I suspect they've become harder not easier to poll, as per the discussion on phone numbers.
Those who voted Brexit Party in 2019 are not Tories in abeyance, they're former Labour voters who weren't even willing to vote Tory to "Get Brexit Done".
The big worry for Labour has to be BXP going straight to the Tories. To be honest I had assumed there was a section that was “never Tory”, it seems I was wrong.
The problem is, there is nobody who stood who could answer that question.
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
Read the T&Cs when you take out your contract/upgrade.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
How anonymised is your data if it includes your number and post code? 🤔
Never had a mobile call from a pollster. If I had, I'd have wondered how they got my number. Twice took a call from one on a landline, once when a child in the nineties and once at work.
It is the first 4 characters of your postcode.
So if you lived in central Manchester postcode and your postcode is M60 4LX then o2/EE/Vodafone would sell it as your number and M60 4.
The pollsters only need your first 4 characters to work out your constituency.
Looking at Sky's contract, it doesn't seem to give them permission to do that, though I'm not a lawyer. I don't see anything there giving them carte blanche to sell it on to market research companies for them to use for their own purposes, rather than Sky's purposes.
You may ask us to include your mobile number in a telephone directory and/or a directory enquiry service. We may charge a fee for requesting this service (which we will tell you about at the time) and you should note that your mobile number will be available to companies that compile information for marketing purposes
The big worry for Labour has to be BXP going straight to the Tories. To be honest I had assumed there was a section that was “never Tory”, it seems I was wrong.
The problem is, there is nobody who stood who could answer that question.
Hartlepool was just about the only place the BXP vote did not transfer to the Tories in 2019.
The big worry for Labour has to be BXP going straight to the Tories. To be honest I had assumed there was a section that was “never Tory”, it seems I was wrong.
The problem is, there is nobody who stood who could answer that question.
Me too. Its why I don't believe this poll and why I bet with @kinabalu that Labour would hold.
If even post-Get Brexit Done these former Labour voters are now no longer "never Tory" then that is shocking news. Especially given that nationwide there was a Brexit Party vote in most Labour constituencies that I asssumed were also "never Tory". If those too break Tory, that's very bad news for Labour.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
The big worry for Labour has to be BXP going straight to the Tories. To be honest I had assumed there was a section that was “never Tory”, it seems I was wrong.
The problem is, there is nobody who stood who could answer that question.
Me too. Its why I don't believe this poll and why I bet with @kinabalu that Labour would hold.
If even post-Get Brexit Done these former Labour voters are now no longer "never Tory" then that is shocking news. Especially given that nationwide there was a Brexit Party vote in most Labour constituencies that I asssumed were also "never Tory". If those too break Tory, that's very bad news for Labour.
Nobody who actually stood had a solution for that. And nobody in Labour yet does either, or maybe ever will. I’m not sure there is an obvious solution.
@kinabalu will be winning my bet with him if so, a bet I'll be happy to lose, but I really don't believe it.
Tend to agree with you. How many of the 502 actually gave a response other than 'Don't Know'?
Maybe for once Justin accept it is a poor poll for Labour
I require no persuading on that front - but always like to delve into the details of polls. In this case 502 voters were contacted. We need to know whether the number expressing a voting preference was circa 400 or circa 300. The latter would imply a big MOE.
The problem pollsters have with constituency polling isn't people not having landlines it is that far too many people don't answer the phone from a withheld or a number the person doesn't recognise.
That level of rejection can be managed with nationwide/regional polls, it is a real issue for constituency polls.
How do constituency phone polls call mobiles belonging to the constituency, since mobile phone numbers aren't linked to a constituency?
There's no database of constituency phone numbers anywhere is there?
Mobile network operators do sell info of their customers including post code and phone numbers to pollsters.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
Sneaky buggers.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
Read the T&Cs when you take out your contract/upgrade.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
How anonymised is your data if it includes your number and post code? 🤔
Never had a mobile call from a pollster. If I had, I'd have wondered how they got my number. Twice took a call from one on a landline, once when a child in the nineties and once at work.
It is the first 4 characters of your postcode.
So if you lived in central Manchester postcode and your postcode is M60 4LX then o2/EE/Vodafone would sell it as your number and M60 4.
The pollsters only need your first 4 characters to work out your constituency.
Looking at Sky's contract, it doesn't seem to give them permission to do that, though I'm not a lawyer. I don't see anything there giving them carte blanche to sell it on to market research companies for them to use for their own purposes, rather than Sky's purposes.
You may ask us to include your mobile number in a telephone directory and/or a directory enquiry service. We may charge a fee for requesting this service (which we will tell you about at the time) and you should note that your mobile number will be available to companies that compile information for marketing purposes
Ha!
Never had such a call. Well, well, well, you learn something every day.
So you can opt out of that via TPS it goes on to say, but since I've never had a call from any of those companies I've never registered with TPS.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
But...but...but.... They don't know ANYONE who votes Tory.
They are going to go all Trumpian - and claim the polls are rigged. Their inevitable victory has been robbed from them. Just you watch.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
The problem with your posts, Leon, is that the descriptions are never quite vivid enough.
The terrifying thing for Labour is that this is exactly what happened to them in Scotland. Suddenly once impregnable redoubts evanesced, like Highland snowdrifts swiftly melting in April sun.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Labour's vote share is actually up in this poll! But Hartlepool is now doing what the rest of the Red Wall did in 2019. This basically tells us what the national polling was already telling us.
In 2009 Hartlepool was in the bottom 100 constituencies for people with higher educational qualifications. That ranking probably hasn't changed much since then. Shows how badly Labour is doing with this demographic.
The big worry for Labour has to be BXP going straight to the Tories. To be honest I had assumed there was a section that was “never Tory”, it seems I was wrong.
The problem is, there is nobody who stood who could answer that question.
Me too. Its why I don't believe this poll and why I bet with @kinabalu that Labour would hold.
If even post-Get Brexit Done these former Labour voters are now no longer "never Tory" then that is shocking news. Especially given that nationwide there was a Brexit Party vote in most Labour constituencies that I asssumed were also "never Tory". If those too break Tory, that's very bad news for Labour.
They were "never Tory" until they realised how much down and dirty anti-Thatcherite largesse would be bunged their way. That has sealed the deal. Eventually the Tories will run out of other people's money. But for now it's a winner.
I suspect the two -party vote share in this poll - 91% - is too high.
If it’s any reassurance, I don’t believe this poll. It’s peak Vax Bounce. Labour will win
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
Comments
Essentially right now landline usage would be much higher in the vaccinated and much lower in the unvaccinated, in general.
A better metric would be the percentage that pay for a calling plan, that’s far more likely to represent those that actually use the phone.
The proportion using it for broadband would be much higher than 25% currently.
I know EE did a deal with Ipsos MORi.
I'm sure they and MNOs have some the same with other pollsters.
The online pollsters (such as Survation) also have an online panel so they can get the mobile numbers of people in a specific constituency for their phone polls.
Pollsters like YouGov, Populus, and Opinium regularly ask me to confirm that my postcode (and contact details) are still accurate.
As someone who lived in the most polled constituency of the 2010-15 parliament I can tell you the pollsters do ring both landlines and mobiles.
As some writer in the Guardian put it (Martin Kettle?) the Tories are becoming the party of England as the SNP have become the party of Scotland. Once people attach, tribally, that way, it is greatly difficult to dislodge (as we see in Scotland). Identity now trumps class. This is the Left’s own doing. It is richly ironic
One day a party will overthrow the Tories down south, just as one day the SNP will be toppled in Holyrood
But as long as Labour is as crippled in the culture wars as it is now, it won’t be them doing any table-turning
But his polling is deteriorating quite badly - the don’t knows that have made up their minds are all turning into negatives.
I wonder if GDPR has affected that? I've never given consent for my number to be sold to anyone.
To get an idea like I said, the best measure is how many pay for a calling plan.
The MNOs do have the right to use and sell your info (anonymised) to carefully selected partners.
It wasn't even true when it was "required". I refused to plug mine in, it just meant you had to click away a message telling you that you had to, once you'd dismissed the message you wouldn't see it again until there was a power cut.
It is the popularity of the PM, and, by extension, his symbol, Brexit, that is driving all this. I have a natural two-dose immunity to their charms.
But am stranded like the Tories in 2001. We need to wake up to that fact.
My mum, bless her, just can’t handle a smartphone. Doesn’t understand WhatsApp or texts. I don’t get it. What happens to the human brain over 75? These are not challenging tasks
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All the other MNOs have something similar
Never had a mobile call from a pollster. If I had, I'd have wondered how they got my number. Twice took a call from one on a landline, once when a child in the nineties and once at work.
So if you lived in central Manchester postcode and your postcode is M60 4LX then o2/EE/Vodafone would sell it as your number and M60 4.
The pollsters only need your first 4 characters to work out your constituency.
But Ed was ahead on VI
I do not believe for second Starmer will do worse than Corbyn
Labour needs to work out what it stands for. It is far from obvious. Identity politics has run its course. Tax and spend has been taken by the Tories, in the name of post-pandemic Brexiteering patriotism (with total cynicism)
What is left? What remains?
Puns intended
CON 49%
LAB 42%
NIP 2%
ReformUK 1%
LD 1%
502 people polled"
How would that meet GDPR?
Sky Mobile's contract says to look at this page for how information is used: https://www.sky.com/help/articles/sky-privacy-and-cookies-notice
That says then "Marketing companies that deliver our communications."
A constituency poll wouldn't be "our communications" surely?
So most goes straight to the Tories, the Lib Dems return to Labour?
@kinabalu will be winning my bet with him if so, a bet I'll be happy to lose, but I really don't believe it.
The surge in support for the Conservatives is partly explained by the popularity of the prime minister among voters in Hartlepool, twice as many of whom (49 per cent) have a favourable view of him than Starmer (24 per cent).
Unlike the prime minister, who has a positive net favourability rating of 19 per cent, Starmer has a negative favourability score of minus 12 per cent.
Hartlepool. After the worst recession in 300 years. During a Tory government
7.8% swing Lab --> Con. Tories getting 4 out of 5 Brexit voters.
49% was at the low end of my expectations. And 42 % at the high.
The Conservatives are the hard Leave anti-woke, get back to a proper job you Online slackers Party now.
For good or ill.
https://www.sky.com/shop/__PDF/Sky-Mobile-Contract.pdf
https://www.sky.com/help/articles/sky-privacy-and-cookies-notice
But then I’m not deluded like some of the Corbyn fanboys that are still left
The problem is, there is nobody who stood who could answer that question.
Used YouGov to compare as that’s the only ones Wikipedia has for Ed
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If even post-Get Brexit Done these former Labour voters are now no longer "never Tory" then that is shocking news. Especially given that nationwide there was a Brexit Party vote in most Labour constituencies that I asssumed were also "never Tory". If those too break Tory, that's very bad news for Labour.
Never to return.
If 47% of Hartlepool voters feel a need to abandon Labour and cast their ballot for the Tories, the party of Queen and Country, Brexit and Britain, Boris and the bus, the flag and the haircut, the army and the navy, pride and furlough, hope and glory, vaccine and virility, this suggests a monumental secular shift.
It is deeply ominous for Labour and their multitude of dancing extinction rebellion genderqueer BLM-positive student activists in tutus
Never had such a call. Well, well, well, you learn something every day.
So you can opt out of that via TPS it goes on to say, but since I've never had a call from any of those companies I've never registered with TPS.
They are going to go all Trumpian - and claim the polls are rigged. Their inevitable victory has been robbed from them. Just you watch.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/19/educated-degree-qualification-constituency-data
That has sealed the deal.
Eventually the Tories will run out of other people's money.
But for now it's a winner.
But it is, nonetheless, an existential warning sign for Labour. Taken alongside polls that show them crumbling in Wales. They are becoming the party of students, some Remoaners and minorities. In England. And.... that’s it?
The UK is not the USA where the Democrats can still cobble together a decent win from the Rainbow Coalition (tho they still nearly lost to a patent madman). Labour faces a decade more, out of power
That’s actually worse in a way because Labour really needs the Lib Dems to do better. And they aren’t.