They admitted: “There isn’t really a consensus yet” within the party, though they predicted Labour would probably end up supporting the certificates “but probably not make much of a song and dance about it”.
To be fair to Starmer, the Telegraph has grossly maligned him by implying that he might have a firm view about anything. His verbatim quote was as follows:
'Is that a fence I see over there? Quick, I must kneel on it!'
He took over from Jeremy Corbyn.
I know it's almost unbelievable, but it's true. Nothing Starmer might do makes him anything other than a huge upgrade.
I'm not suggesting he deserves any votes of course. On the other hand a great number of people either were having an obscure joke, or found themselves genuinely bewildered at the last GE. When you've woken up in the morning and realised that you voted for Corbyn, then surely it's easy steps back to reality. Perhaps Starmer can offer that.
Barbs aside he's clearly one of the few capable people Labour have. I'm sure he fears the internal fights much more than the external ones.
I have no idea whether Starmer can ever surpass mediocrity.
Many on this site laugh hysterically at Starmer's pathetic ineptitude compared to their hero Boris Johnson, and his unassailable popularity amongst the great unwashed. They may be more astute than I am, because Johnson comes across to me as being incredibly casual and wholly unsuited to high office (lucky yes, but serious, absolutely not).
Now since the vaccination came on stream, the only issue of any interest to the national mainstream media has been vaccination progress statistics (no other metrics - or news- matters). On listening to the BBC R2 news broadcasts. I now try to pre-empt the presenter by beating him or her to the first words of the bulletin. So I start with a, "Boris Johnson..." I am correct around 50% of the time.
Starmer may be dreadful, that remains to be seen, but he hardly gets a word in. During my almost 60 years, I have not come across a politician that dominates the media narrative like Johnson. It is predominantly positive too, and even when he gets it wrong, his errors are hoovered up (the Cenotaph effect). Not even Mrs Thatch. could manage that.
What would work for SKS is this: He is honest, dull, decent electable. Most Tories/centre right don't look on the the idea of a SKS government with horror, though he has not given habitual or new Tories anything very much to switch sides about.
If Boris's wheels came off properly they would do so with a screech of brakes, smash of glass and scrunching metal, and in particular if the magic of his charisma vanished through the wrong sort of scandal (clearly conventional scandals won't hack it) or mistake on the Iraq/poll tax/Suez/25% inflation/15% mortgage rate/house price halve scale very quickly his style and rumpled look would cease to entertain and amuse and people would reflect on whether private character and public life may be related and have a fit of moral probity.
At that point SKS looks just the ticket, and the Tory cabinet look like a Guardian cartoon.
Just as Boris v Nicola is a great show (with N v Salmond as side attraction), waiting for the Godot of Boris's wheels coming off is the stuff of politics nerds. Avoiding it must be about Boris's number 1 concern.
Looks like we are finally getting a poll of Hartlepool. Going to be very interesting to see how close it is to the MRP projection from a bunch of Red Wall seats.
I suspect there will be a Tory lead. Far from certain, but the two former Labour MPs standing are an issue for them and it feels like former RefUK voters should be pretty willing to vote Tory this time given the buoyant general mood towards the government on vaccines. We'll see.
How does he know people want 'radical change' before we see the outcome of the poll that has been commissioned to see if they want it? And if it does show a Tory lead, in what universe would that mean people actually want radical change from their opposition parties (including the one currently holding the seat), rather than showing they, for whatever reason, want what the Tories are offering?
He's already done a poll of his gut feeling. Or perhaps of what he knows in his bones.
Oh sorry the Global Travel Taskforce reporting date is 12 April, not 17 May.
Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?
The Times this morning reported that Boris would announce details of the overseas travel traffic light scheme and apparently an update from the global travel task force has been published this evening, though I can’t find a link... the Times report includes actual quotes from the PM’s speech so they seem to have been briefed by No 10... from that, I’d conclude that the intention to talk about overseas travel was dropped for some reason...
That doesn't sound like a promise.
No, not a promise... though having checked, the expectation of an update today originates from the PM himself at the March 23rd briefing:
Johnson said: “A lot of people do want to know about what’s going to happen on the holiday front and I know there’s a great deal of curiosity and interest.
“All I can say is it’s just too early to say and my advice is to everybody to wait for the global travel task force to report.
“We’ve heard already that there are other European countries where the disease is now rising so things certainly look difficult for the time being but we will be able to say more we hope in a few days’ time, I certainly hope to say more by April 5.”
So he said then to wait for the global travel task force to report. Since then it's been announced that report is coming on 12 April. That's not today.
From the same report: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suggested that he may announce on April 5 whether holidays abroad this summer may be possible, a week ahead of the date the government’s Global Travel Taskforce is due to report.
I can’t see why you choose to make an issue of this. Boris himself said that an update would be given today, this morning’s press said he would. He didn’t. It’s not too important, other than expectations were raised. But to deny that today had been trailed as a possible update on travel just seems odd.
Oh sorry the Global Travel Taskforce reporting date is 12 April, not 17 May.
Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?
The Times this morning reported that Boris would announce details of the overseas travel traffic light scheme and apparently an update from the global travel task force has been published this evening, though I can’t find a link... the Times report includes actual quotes from the PM’s speech so they seem to have been briefed by No 10... from that, I’d conclude that the intention to talk about overseas travel was dropped for some reason...
That doesn't sound like a promise.
No, not a promise... though having checked, the expectation of an update today originates from the PM himself at the March 23rd briefing:
Johnson said: “A lot of people do want to know about what’s going to happen on the holiday front and I know there’s a great deal of curiosity and interest.
“All I can say is it’s just too early to say and my advice is to everybody to wait for the global travel task force to report.
“We’ve heard already that there are other European countries where the disease is now rising so things certainly look difficult for the time being but we will be able to say more we hope in a few days’ time, I certainly hope to say more by April 5.”
So he said then to wait for the global travel task force to report. Since then it's been announced that report is coming on 12 April. That's not today.
From the same report: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suggested that he may announce on April 5 whether holidays abroad this summer may be possible, a week ahead of the date the government’s Global Travel Taskforce is due to report.
I can’t see why you choose to make an issue of this. Boris himself said that an update would be given today, this morning’s press said he would. He didn’t. It’s not too important, other than expectations were raised. But to deny that today had been trailed as a possible update on travel just seems odd.
For example see this morning’s headline news stories on SKY.
It’s simply the clown doing his usual over-promising.
And Philip having his usual go at defending the indefensible.
If he is quoted as he "may announce" something, and the media report it as he will announce something, who is at fault?
Surely you're not that naive?
Saying that you may be in a position to announce something by a certain date and not doing so is not breaking a promise.
Well obviously, but you can't be naive enough to believe that those stories were not leaked to the press on purpose over the weekend.
How was it leaked? They have a direct quote from the PM!
I'm referring to the reporting in general over the weekend and not that specific quotation.
Wouldn't be surprised if it was done to try and bounce them into a decision. Still, it wasn't a promise.
PM trails the 5 April as the day he may be able to say more about future policy on travel.
Number Ten briefs the press over Easter that Monday's conference will include an announcement on travel.
Then when 5 April comes, the PM says it all depends, wait and see.
It surprises me the lengths PB's fanclub will go to, to try and excuse another booboo by our chief clown. There was no need for all this advance trailing at all, and simply makes him look stupid.
May does not mean will.
Do you have a Number Ten press release that says Monday's conference "will" include an announcement on travel?
5 April arrives and the conference is exactly as had been said. It "may" have contained an announcement, but that also means it "may not". In this instance the latter was correct, exactly as was said.
There was no advance trailing other than it "may" have announcement. May doesn't mean "will". Reports in the press are not "will" either. The press will happily take a "may" and turn it into a "will" but unless the statement was "will" that's just the press playing silly buggers as they have a tendency to do. They will always report things in the most dramatic way possible, the press never lead with "it all depends, wait and see" because that doesn't generate clicks.
You are really beyond all hope if you think the PM expected to get away with not saying anything, after so much pre-trailing, on the basis of may versus will.
May does not mean will and you are really beyond all hope if you take what the press reports as the gospel truth.
The press being inaccurate is not novel.
The irony is that your defence rests upon the assumption that he is a political imbecile.
Anyone with experience of high office would understand the consequences of announcing weeks in advance that on April 5 you may be able to say more about travel restrictions (or permissions) and then briefing the press a day or two beforehand that this is what you intend to do.
Where's the press release briefing the press that this is what is intended to be done?
You keep claiming with a straight face that the press were briefed but I've not seen a single press release showing they were. The press reporting something doesn't make it so.
Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.
I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.
I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.
The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.
What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
Agree. I do not doubt Nicola's philosophical commitment to independence, but it like our collective commitment to world peace and the abolition of poverty, at best it is slow progress and it isn't actually going to happen.
If following Brexit the indy cause can't get polling at 60% or so - and they can't - it is hard to see it happening. To win a Ref2 they need to be at 60% or so now, because their actual case is so terrible they are bound to suffer losses in a campaign.
Until the weather changes Nicola needs to keep this on the permanent horizon. (Hint: Christianity has been doing this about the second coming for 2000 years and it works fine).
But if you're saying Sturgeon is not keen for a quick referendum because she knows it will be another No - which kills Sindy for the foreseeable future - this would be by your own logic the correct approach for someone truly committed to the cause.
You are trying to have your cake and eat it, argumentally.
I continue to wait for actual evidence that she cares far more about being FM than about achieving an independent Scotland.
No, I think we are agreed about Nicola Sturgeon. She does want independence, and isn't going to go for it until she can get it. As it happens I don't think that time can be foreseen. The difference I suspect is only that we are on different sides about the outcome we would like and the strength of the case once the gloves were off and campaigning mode began.
Nicola Sturgeon is one of the two outstandingly able politicians in the UK. My admiration for her is almost limitless. I just think she is wrong. So do most people who, like me, live in close to the border of England and Scotland.
Sturgeon's problem is that she no idea what to do if - when - Boris refuses a 2nd indyref. She clearly believes in indy, she would love to be the FM that delivered it, but there is no obvious route. Moreover, she has got a reputation, however unfair, for havering. Whereas Salmond is the man who looks like he REALLY wants it and will start riots if needs be (tho in fact I am unsure he has any better ideas that Sturgeon)
Oh sorry the Global Travel Taskforce reporting date is 12 April, not 17 May.
Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?
The Times this morning reported that Boris would announce details of the overseas travel traffic light scheme and apparently an update from the global travel task force has been published this evening, though I can’t find a link... the Times report includes actual quotes from the PM’s speech so they seem to have been briefed by No 10... from that, I’d conclude that the intention to talk about overseas travel was dropped for some reason...
That doesn't sound like a promise.
No, not a promise... though having checked, the expectation of an update today originates from the PM himself at the March 23rd briefing:
Johnson said: “A lot of people do want to know about what’s going to happen on the holiday front and I know there’s a great deal of curiosity and interest.
“All I can say is it’s just too early to say and my advice is to everybody to wait for the global travel task force to report.
“We’ve heard already that there are other European countries where the disease is now rising so things certainly look difficult for the time being but we will be able to say more we hope in a few days’ time, I certainly hope to say more by April 5.”
So he said then to wait for the global travel task force to report. Since then it's been announced that report is coming on 12 April. That's not today.
From the same report: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suggested that he may announce on April 5 whether holidays abroad this summer may be possible, a week ahead of the date the government’s Global Travel Taskforce is due to report.
I can’t see why you choose to make an issue of this. Boris himself said that an update would be given today, this morning’s press said he would. He didn’t. It’s not too important, other than expectations were raised. But to deny that today had been trailed as a possible update on travel just seems odd.
Oh sorry the Global Travel Taskforce reporting date is 12 April, not 17 May.
Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?
The Times this morning reported that Boris would announce details of the overseas travel traffic light scheme and apparently an update from the global travel task force has been published this evening, though I can’t find a link... the Times report includes actual quotes from the PM’s speech so they seem to have been briefed by No 10... from that, I’d conclude that the intention to talk about overseas travel was dropped for some reason...
That doesn't sound like a promise.
No, not a promise... though having checked, the expectation of an update today originates from the PM himself at the March 23rd briefing:
Johnson said: “A lot of people do want to know about what’s going to happen on the holiday front and I know there’s a great deal of curiosity and interest.
“All I can say is it’s just too early to say and my advice is to everybody to wait for the global travel task force to report.
“We’ve heard already that there are other European countries where the disease is now rising so things certainly look difficult for the time being but we will be able to say more we hope in a few days’ time, I certainly hope to say more by April 5.”
So he said then to wait for the global travel task force to report. Since then it's been announced that report is coming on 12 April. That's not today.
From the same report: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suggested that he may announce on April 5 whether holidays abroad this summer may be possible, a week ahead of the date the government’s Global Travel Taskforce is due to report.
I can’t see why you choose to make an issue of this. Boris himself said that an update would be given today, this morning’s press said he would. He didn’t. It’s not too important, other than expectations were raised. But to deny that today had been trailed as a possible update on travel just seems odd.
For example see this morning’s headline news stories on SKY.
It’s simply the clown doing his usual over-promising.
And Philip having his usual go at defending the indefensible.
If he is quoted as he "may announce" something, and the media report it as he will announce something, who is at fault?
Surely you're not that naive?
Saying that you may be in a position to announce something by a certain date and not doing so is not breaking a promise.
Well obviously, but you can't be naive enough to believe that those stories were not leaked to the press on purpose over the weekend.
How was it leaked? They have a direct quote from the PM!
I'm referring to the reporting in general over the weekend and not that specific quotation.
Wouldn't be surprised if it was done to try and bounce them into a decision. Still, it wasn't a promise.
PM trails the 5 April as the day he may be able to say more about future policy on travel.
Number Ten briefs the press over Easter that Monday's conference will include an announcement on travel.
Then when 5 April comes, the PM says it all depends, wait and see.
It surprises me the lengths PB's fanclub will go to, to try and excuse another booboo by our chief clown. There was no need for all this advance trailing at all, and simply makes him look stupid.
Wow you really thought Johnson & Co. would allow you to travel abroad this summer? goodness.
I think they will. Better than 50/50 anyway. I actually think 17 May will be adhered to, Johnson said three times today that roadmap is on track. But I think there will be degrees, depending on situation in the particular country (traffic light system, or red list, or corridor system).
Seriously Stocky when are you and the other Johnson apologists going to stop giving this most mendacious of men the benefit of the doubt? At what point is enough enough for you?
The fact is that REAL freedom was never on the table until Mid May anyway and now there are clearly questions around that, despite incredible data.
On April 12th - that's next week - you can have a haircut and 6 pints down the pub. In either order. Just think about that for a second.
Where are these pubs offering haircuts ? @Cyclfree ?
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
ve at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
For Cyclefree, and other liberals like me, freedoms can only be taken by the state in exceptional and time-limited circumstances. For me, extreme pressure on health services counted. We are not in this position now. The vaccine programme cannot be described as hugely successful with no corresponding return of liberties which have clearly now been relegated to privileges rather than the basic rights of a liberal democracy.
Get over yourself. The situation is much improved and restrictions are and will continue to be lifted and lightened. We are though in the midst of a massive trial wrt to vaccine efficacy. We do not yet know how long the vaccine works for, the potential impact of new variants from a world largely unvaccinated and a disease still fairly rampant within 20 miles of Uk shores. Give the government a chance to get many more people jabbed.
If vaccines work - and the evidence is that they do - we do not need existing restrictions replaced by new ones. If they don't work, vaccine ID cards are pointless. The government is not going to increase the uptake of vaccinations if it still means restrictions at the end of it. If anything they are undermining it.
Whitty and co said right at the start that vaccines are our way out of this. We now have them. We have a good vaccination programme. Once vaccinated there really is no basis for continuing restrictions. And it not libertarian or selfish to say so. The whole point of vaccination is to return to normality because Covid is not going to be eliminated.
The government, as another poster said a few days ago, is trying to hold us hostage to enforce compliance with yet more restrictions imposed for no very good reason.
Vaccines work for some but not all. More importantly, a huge block of the population has yet to be vaccinated including pregnant women (effectively untreatable if they fall ill) and those who are immunosuppresed. Oh and the younger cohorts. A 25 year old with long Covid, with prognosis currently unknown, is a huge loss to society. Hundreds of thousands of them is a disaster. But I guess once the older groups have been vaccinated then it's time to pick up the baton for liberty again.
I am in the side of the young in this debate. The vaccination programme needs to be ramped up so that they are all vaccinated ASAP. But these vaccination passports discriminate against the young. All my children are very against them. They also discriminate against those who cannot have vaccines - another reason why they are a bad idea.
The only way out is to vaccinate all the population that can be so as to protect those who cannot be.
Great we agree. So let's be patient until everyone who can has been vaccinated.
You're a legal mind I believe? What does the law say or typically do, about what an economist might call a 'negative externality'? I.e. something that you do that has a negative effect on someone else, effectively making you overconsume it because it's not part of your (self-interested) utility function.
An economist might suggest a 'Pigovian tax' which effectively internalises the negative outcome within your utility function, altering consumption.
So, what's the intersection, if there is one, between a market correction such as a Pigovian tax, liberty, the law and an infectious disease such as Covid-19?
Public health in a pandemic is generally considered to be a public good, which is essentially a special case of an externality. In this context, public good means something different from what it means in every day speech. Such goods have two crucial characteristics: they are non-rivalrous (so you being healthy doesn't mean I'm less so) and non-excludable (so you can't easily stop an individual from getting it). The classic example of a public good is radio broadcasting - you can't easily stop somebody with a radio set from picking up whatever you broadcast, and you listening to your radio set doesn't mean I can't.
All that background means that Pigovian taxes won't really work here. You basically have to give things like vaccines out for free to anyone, if you assume, as the government does, that nobody's protected till everybody is.
My mask is being burnt on 21st June and not a day later. I shall mark myself as "Exempt" from the 22nd.
As a conscientious tax payer, I won't be volunteering for a covid test ever again once I'm two vaccines down, which is about 4 weeks away.
The social distancing rules can already hang themselves, given my entire family has already had one vaccine and are hence safe from serious infection.
And I'll either rely on a paper vaccine certificate or if not allowed, will refrain from doing anything that requires the app.
Enough is enough. Come on Starmer you pathetic excuse for a leader. Lead! Work with Tory backbenchers to kill the government's majority on all this. Give us a reason to cheer you just once and perhaps, just perhaps, you'll be thanked for it in May and 2024.
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.
For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials
Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.
Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
While I agree with everything, it is worth remembering with Israel comparisons that their booming nightclubs (and bars etc) are with a compulsory vaxport scheme.
Since I won't support a compulsory vaxport scheme we need to do better even than Israel.
We will, Israel is stuck at about 80% of the adult population, the UK will easily get past that.
It's actually slightly worse than that: 77%.
And this does not include the (Arab) residents of the Occupied Territories. So, the real chance of a refusenik Israeli adult coming across someone with Covid is actually pretty high relative to... say... what we'll have in the UK in three to six weeks time.
The one positive I think of for the covid id app passport is that Johnson will finally run out of excuses why he can't face a room full of face-to-face journalists who can ask a follow up.
Today's presser was a disgrace.
Once the crisis is over, isn't the plan to leave all this stuff to Allegra?
"As with most Covid policies over the last year, I find the polling on this to be simply not credible, with some results showing support at over 70%. For identity papers. To go to the pub. In Britain. Never have I ever felt so disconnected for such a sustained period of time from what seems to be majority opinion in this country, assuming that it really is majority opinion. Either the Great British public have indeed lost their minds after being scared into submission, or something is just way off about the polls themselves. "
Sturgeon's problem is that she no idea what to do if - when - Boris refuses a 2nd indyref. She clearly believes in indy, she would love to be the FM that delivered it, but there is no obvious route. Moreover, she has got a reputation, however unfair, for havering. Whereas Salmond is the man who looks like he REALLY wants it and will start riots if needs be (tho in fact I am unsure he has any better ideas that Sturgeon)
Ms Sturgeon's nightmare probably involves Boris granting an Indy Ref. After all, there is no guarantee she would win it and if she did win, she would have a huge list of problems on her plate.
Life will be much easier for her if she can play the underdog for the rest of her political career.
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.
For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials
Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.
Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
*** ALERT. The following rambling post contains doomporn
I don’t think anyone can know what is going to happen.
Why was the cautious Downing Street briefing predicting a third wave to hit UK? And why is that even deemed controversial? I haven’t come here to knock them, because we can’t just nod when we agree with what they say, sit on our nodding when we don’t, unless Unless Science itself does help with problems but not with 100% record to make us know for sure what happens. I’m not as convinced as I had become the vaccines are going to bring this to an end anytime soon and the roadmap is leading to any end to COVID spikes and lockdowns. It all died back last year without vaccines.
The problems on the next phase I think is, 2nd and 3rd time of getting covid, where you can feel more sick than the other time and maybe even more chance of long covid the second and third time of getting sick with it, which, crucially, brings with it the issue of work age population not being able to work. The economic disaster bit of the pandemic could be yet to come.
My guess now is we are going into a lull between lockdown, also pandemic enters new phase where we try to live with it as normal as possible, yet the long covid casualties start mounting up into economic damage so all the countries go broke.
So, your view is that vaccines suddenly stop working?
My mask is being burnt on 21st June and not a day later. I shall mark myself as "Exempt" from the 22nd.
As a conscientious tax payer, I won't be volunteering for a covid test ever again once I'm two vaccines down, which is about 4 weeks away.
The social distancing rules can already hang themselves, given my entire family has already had one vaccine and are hence safe from serious infection.
And I'll either rely on a paper vaccine certificate or if not allowed, will refrain from doing anything that requires the app.
Enough is enough. Come on Starmer you pathetic excuse for a leader. Lead! Work with Tory backbenchers to kill the government's majority on all this. Give us a reason to cheer you just once and perhaps, just perhaps, you'll be thanked for it in May and 2024.
"As with most Covid policies over the last year, I find the polling on this to be simply not credible, with some results showing support at over 70%. For identity papers. To go to the pub. In Britain. Never have I ever felt so disconnected for such a sustained period of time from what seems to be majority opinion in this country, assuming that it really is majority opinion. Either the Great British public have indeed lost their minds after being scared into submission, or something is just way off about the polls themselves. "
One explanation is that many people have so completely given up their lives to screens of one type or another that it doesn't really matter where they are. They could be in the same room for the rest of their lives and still be able to watch their screens. Therefore lockdown doesn't particularly bother them.
"As with most Covid policies over the last year, I find the polling on this to be simply not credible, with some results showing support at over 70%. For identity papers. To go to the pub. In Britain. Never have I ever felt so disconnected for such a sustained period of time from what seems to be majority opinion in this country, assuming that it really is majority opinion. Either the Great British public have indeed lost their minds after being scared into submission, or something is just way off about the polls themselves. "
People with strong political views and a coherent political philosophy find it very hard to appreciate how rare they are, and how many people have weakly held and varied views with no specific philosophy beyond what feels to them like common sense.
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
ve at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
For Cyclefree, and other liberals like me, freedoms can only be taken by the state in exceptional and time-limited circumstances. For me, extreme pressure on health services counted. We are not in this position now. The vaccine programme cannot be described as hugely successful with no corresponding return of liberties which have clearly now been relegated to privileges rather than the basic rights of a liberal democracy.
Get over yourself. The situation is much improved and restrictions are and will continue to be lifted and lightened. We are though in the midst of a massive trial wrt to vaccine efficacy. We do not yet know how long the vaccine works for, the potential impact of new variants from a world largely unvaccinated and a disease still fairly rampant within 20 miles of Uk shores. Give the government a chance to get many more people jabbed.
If vaccines work - and the evidence is that they do - we do not need existing restrictions replaced by new ones. If they don't work, vaccine ID cards are pointless. The government is not going to increase the uptake of vaccinations if it still means restrictions at the end of it. If anything they are undermining it.
Whitty and co said right at the start that vaccines are our way out of this. We now have them. We have a good vaccination programme. Once vaccinated there really is no basis for continuing restrictions. And it not libertarian or selfish to say so. The whole point of vaccination is to return to normality because Covid is not going to be eliminated.
The government, as another poster said a few days ago, is trying to hold us hostage to enforce compliance with yet more restrictions imposed for no very good reason.
Vaccines work for some but not all. More importantly, a huge block of the population has yet to be vaccinated including pregnant women (effectively untreatable if they fall ill) and those who are immunosuppresed. Oh and the younger cohorts. A 25 year old with long Covid, with prognosis currently unknown, is a huge loss to society. Hundreds of thousands of them is a disaster. But I guess once the older groups have been vaccinated then it's time to pick up the baton for liberty again.
Vaccines work in two ways:
1. They mean people that do catch the disease don't get so sick 2. They mean that fewer people are spreading the disease, and there are fewer people around to be carriers.
At the start of the programme, it was all about 1: find the most vulnerable, and get 'em jabbed. And it has broadly worked.
Now, it's all about 2. And we have to look to Israel to see how efficacious this is. This is a country that opened cafes, restaurants, nightclubs, sporting events, and removed the majority of restrictions to travel.
Israel now has few restrictions than at any time since the start of the CV19 pandemic.
Cases in Israel... continue to trend down. And we can be sure that Saffer & Kent & Brazilan Covid have gotten there, because that's the nature of a world where people travel.
If we see cases start to spike in Israel, then yes, that would be a sign that the vaccine aren't working. But that's not what we're seeing. In fact, despite the fact that they are probably importing a dozen or more cases every day, the number of people catching CV19 in Israel contiues to fall - a clear sign that (because of vaccines) R is now comfortably below 1 there.
Now, we're not quite at the same level of protection as Israel yet. But we're not a million from there. In six weeks we'll surpass Israel as far as percentage of adult population having had at least one dose, and we're not going to be far off their two dose level.
We had enough questions asked about vaccine passports today to know that the PM cannot, or will not, answer them. Given the ferocity of the debate ahead — and the depth of concern in his party — this bodes ill.
The issue is a classic. Opinions are easy and everyone can switch their opinions at will. To do nothing (far the easiest to implement) may well be absolutely impossible, especially in the international sphere. To do something sounds great until you actually try to decide enough policy to be able to draft some legislation. At that point it becomes a legal drafting nightmare; followed by a parliamentary nightmare of opposition from a sensible right, left and liberal caucus; followed immediately by a nightmare of implementation.
IMHO getting is right is almost impossible, getting it wrong could be the stuff of which governments don't recover. Being the opposition is a piece of cake.
It is the biggest immediate danger to the government's long term survival.
If it is humanly possible the safest course is for government only to allow commerce etc to impose the rules it wishes, and to legislate to permit but not require every individual to possess, free, a vaccine status document just like a driving licence.
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
Am I deluded?
The trouble is that when push comes to shove, there are so few Tory MPs with sufficiently firm principles to do anything other than make a bit of a whinge before heading into the Aye lobby. The pointless money wasting mass testing, the social distancing and masks for another year, the Stasi app... any of them by themselves would warrant a letter to 1922. But all three?! What is Tissue Price's position?
My mask is being burnt on 21st June and not a day later. I shall mark myself as "Exempt" from the 22nd.
As a conscientious tax payer, I won't be volunteering for a covid test ever again once I'm two vaccines down, which is about 4 weeks away.
The social distancing rules can already hang themselves, given my entire family has already had one vaccine and are hence safe from serious infection.
And I'll either rely on a paper vaccine certificate or if not allowed, will refrain from doing anything that requires the app.
Enough is enough. Come on Starmer you pathetic excuse for a leader. Lead! Work with Tory backbenchers to kill the government's majority on all this. Give us a reason to cheer you just once and perhaps, just perhaps, you'll be thanked for it in May and 2024.
Hear, hear on Starmer.
Get off the bloody fence for once and oppose FFS.
But he doesn’t want to oppose this, as he’s massively in favour of it. Doubly so, if the other side take the brickbats for having to implement it.
I usually dislike the playing of base politics, but is the LOTO really too blind to see a good chance of defeating the government here?
He should be working with the libertarian Tories, he won’t need to look too far to find 45 of them willing to vote against.
Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.
I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.
I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.
The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.
What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
Agree. I do not doubt Nicola's philosophical commitment to independence, but it like our collective commitment to world peace and the abolition of poverty, at best it is slow progress and it isn't actually going to happen.
If following Brexit the indy cause can't get polling at 60% or so - and they can't - it is hard to see it happening. To win a Ref2 they need to be at 60% or so now, because their actual case is so terrible they are bound to suffer losses in a campaign.
Until the weather changes Nicola needs to keep this on the permanent horizon. (Hint: Christianity has been doing this about the second coming for 2000 years and it works fine).
But if you're saying Sturgeon is not keen for a quick referendum because she knows it will be another No - which kills Sindy for the foreseeable future - this would be by your own logic the correct approach for someone truly committed to the cause.
You are trying to have your cake and eat it, argumentally.
I continue to wait for actual evidence that she cares far more about being FM than about achieving an independent Scotland.
No, I think we are agreed about Nicola Sturgeon. She does want independence, and isn't going to go for it until she can get it. As it happens I don't think that time can be foreseen. The difference I suspect is only that we are on different sides about the outcome we would like and the strength of the case once the gloves were off and campaigning mode began.
Nicola Sturgeon is one of the two outstandingly able politicians in the UK. My admiration for her is almost limitless. I just think she is wrong. So do most people who, like me, live in close to the border of England and Scotland.
Sturgeon's problem is that she no idea what to do if - when - Boris refuses a 2nd indyref. She clearly believes in indy, she would love to be the FM that delivered it, but there is no obvious route. Moreover, she has got a reputation, however unfair, for havering. Whereas Salmond is the man who looks like he REALLY wants it and will start riots if needs be (tho in fact I am unsure he has any better ideas that Sturgeon)
If the choice is between NS who says 'I would like independence but the polls aren't there for us' and Salmond who is saying (you suggest) '50% want independence so let's have a riot' a lot of unionists - about 50% of the population - will back NS on that issue. There are plenty of people who don't want Scotland turned into either Catalonia or NI.
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
Am I deluded?
The trouble is that when push comes to shove, there are so few Tory MPs with sufficiently firm principles to do anything other than make a bit of a whinge before heading into the Aye lobby. The pointless money wasting mass testing, the social distancing and masks for another year, the Stasi app... any of them by themselves would warrant a letter to 1922. But all three?! What is Tissue Price's position?
At some point the Great British Public will say enough of all this. Then the tide will go out and they will found wanting.
Or maybe I don't live in the country I thought I lived in.
The one positive I think of for the covid id app passport is that Johnson will finally run out of excuses why he can't face a room full of face-to-face journalists who can ask a follow up.
Today's presser was a disgrace.
Once the crisis is over, isn't the plan to leave all this stuff to Allegra?
Indeed. Johnson likes to play the Big Important Prime Minister when it suits him, but not when he has to answer for the shit that his government is planning.
Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.
I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.
I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.
The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.
What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
Agree. I do not doubt Nicola's philosophical commitment to independence, but it like our collective commitment to world peace and the abolition of poverty, at best it is slow progress and it isn't actually going to happen.
If following Brexit the indy cause can't get polling at 60% or so - and they can't - it is hard to see it happening. To win a Ref2 they need to be at 60% or so now, because their actual case is so terrible they are bound to suffer losses in a campaign.
Until the weather changes Nicola needs to keep this on the permanent horizon. (Hint: Christianity has been doing this about the second coming for 2000 years and it works fine).
But if you're saying Sturgeon is not keen for a quick referendum because she knows it will be another No - which kills Sindy for the foreseeable future - this would be by your own logic the correct approach for someone truly committed to the cause.
You are trying to have your cake and eat it, argumentally.
I continue to wait for actual evidence that she cares far more about being FM than about achieving an independent Scotland.
No, I think we are agreed about Nicola Sturgeon. She does want independence, and isn't going to go for it until she can get it. As it happens I don't think that time can be foreseen. The difference I suspect is only that we are on different sides about the outcome we would like and the strength of the case once the gloves were off and campaigning mode began.
Nicola Sturgeon is one of the two outstandingly able politicians in the UK. My admiration for her is almost limitless. I just think she is wrong. So do most people who, like me, live in close to the border of England and Scotland.
Sturgeon's problem is that she no idea what to do if - when - Boris refuses a 2nd indyref. She clearly believes in indy, she would love to be the FM that delivered it, but there is no obvious route. Moreover, she has got a reputation, however unfair, for havering. Whereas Salmond is the man who looks like he REALLY wants it and will start riots if needs be (tho in fact I am unsure he has any better ideas that Sturgeon)
If the choice is between NS who says 'I would like independence but the polls aren't there for us' and Salmond who is saying (you suggest) '50% want independence so let's have a riot' a lot of unionists - about 50% of the population - will back NS on that issue. There are plenty of people who don't want Scotland turned into either Catalonia or NI.
Yes, most Scots of any persuasion would be appalled by the UDI/endless demos route proposed by Salmond, Sturgeon's problem is that enough Nats ARE prepared to take this wild road. 30% of YES voters mebbes?
Boris has to look generous and pensive, but be flinty in his refusal of indyref2, then he has a real prospect of watching YES split in two. However his refusal may inflame Nat opinion and unite them. Impossible to say
Perilous times for both sides. Boris has to and will say No, however, as he is the PM of the UK and has to act in the interests of the entire UK (Scotland included). Let all British MPs in the Commons have a free vote on indyref2, or not. Then close the book for a few years
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
Am I deluded?
The trouble is that when push comes to shove, there are so few Tory MPs with sufficiently firm principles to do anything other than make a bit of a whinge before heading into the Aye lobby. The pointless money wasting mass testing, the social distancing and masks for another year, the Stasi app... any of them by themselves would warrant a letter to 1922. But all three?! What is Tissue Price's position?
At some point the Great British Public will say enough of all this. Then the tide will go out and they will found wanting.
Or maybe I don't live in the country I thought I lived in.
Distant Facebook contacts are quite useful because they remind me that there really are moral high horsers who have religiously stuck to every rule for a year and even this weekend, only saw family outside despite them all already having been vaccinated. I can privately smirk at such loopy masochism but it seems it's actually the prevalent view, which makes it altogether less funny.
The one positive I think of for the covid id app passport is that Johnson will finally run out of excuses why he can't face a room full of face-to-face journalists who can ask a follow up.
Today's presser was a disgrace.
Once the crisis is over, isn't the plan to leave all this stuff to Allegra?
All governments have long had press secretaries doing briefings.
The only difference is that the briefing will be on camera. Doing briefings is not original to Allegra.
Presumably he’ll make the same apology after his next visit to a mosque, or a temple?
Jesus House – which is part of the Redeemed Christian Church of God – has allegedly carried out “exorcisms” on people who are “sexually attracted to members of their own sex" and opposes gay marriage.
It is however a black majority church, showing again the clashes between the cultural left and some of the most socially conservative BAME elements within the Labour Party coalition
"As with most Covid policies over the last year, I find the polling on this to be simply not credible, with some results showing support at over 70%. For identity papers. To go to the pub. In Britain. Never have I ever felt so disconnected for such a sustained period of time from what seems to be majority opinion in this country, assuming that it really is majority opinion. Either the Great British public have indeed lost their minds after being scared into submission, or something is just way off about the polls themselves. "
People with strong political views and a coherent political philosophy find it very hard to appreciate how rare they are, and how many people have weakly held and varied views with no specific philosophy beyond what feels to them like common sense.
It's not that they are ready to make a supreme sacrifice of liberty as the writer supposes - most people don't see liberty as an indivisible unity covering everything from having vaccination cards to abolishing freedom of speech. They just don't think carrying a vaccination card is a big deal, and pragmatically it might offer some protection, so they're mildly up for it.
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.
For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials
Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.
Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
*** ALERT. The following rambling post contains doomporn
I don’t think anyone can know what is going to happen.
Why was the cautious Downing Street briefing predicting a third wave to hit UK? And why is that even deemed controversial? I haven’t come here to knock them, because we can’t just nod when we agree with what they say, sit on our nodding when we don’t, unless Unless Science itself does help with problems but not with 100% record to make us know for sure what happens. I’m not as convinced as I had become the vaccines are going to bring this to an end anytime soon and the roadmap is leading to any end to COVID spikes and lockdowns. It all died back last year without vaccines.
The problems on the next phase I think is, 2nd and 3rd time of getting covid, where you can feel more sick than the other time and maybe even more chance of long covid the second and third time of getting sick with it, which, crucially, brings with it the issue of work age population not being able to work. The economic disaster bit of the pandemic could be yet to come.
My guess now is we are going into a lull between lockdown, also pandemic enters new phase where we try to live with it as normal as possible, yet the long covid casualties start mounting up into economic damage so all the countries go broke.
So, your view is that vaccines suddenly stop working?
It’s exactly the sort of glib one liners like yours I received back that could actually prove something is missing from the discussion. Let me explain it like this, then you could actually say wether you can see the point I am making.
Do I believe vaccines work? Is that vaccination programmes in general or just this one? I believe in general that vaccination is a great breakthrough in human science. So about covid vaccine? What do you mean work? That it makes covid disappear? If so, in what sort of timeframe
Is it really fiction for me to say the briefing today offered up potential or even likelihood of third wave in UK?
And one for you if I may. Would you put the risk, that while we come out of lockdown and try to cohabit with covid, the risk to the working population getting long covid and hurting the economy is zero - it’s such a silly point I am making it shouldn’t even be brought up and bottom out?
Presumably he’ll make the same apology after his next visit to a mosque, or a temple?
Fans of Sir Keir talk up his competence, assuredness, and forensic eye for detail but he’s had to apologise for trying to start a fight w Boris in the commons after he got the wrong end of the stick about the EMA, & again now he’s been visiting a homophobic church that Theresa May was slaughtered for attending in the last parliament. It’s only a mile or two away from his front door, he can’t really plead ignorance. What are his redeeming features, other than not being Corbyn, and being chief Remainer?
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
Am I deluded?
The trouble is that when push comes to shove, there are so few Tory MPs with sufficiently firm principles to do anything other than make a bit of a whinge before heading into the Aye lobby. The pointless money wasting mass testing, the social distancing and masks for another year, the Stasi app... any of them by themselves would warrant a letter to 1922. But all three?! What is Tissue Price's position?
At some point the Great British Public will say enough of all this. Then the tide will go out and they will found wanting.
Or maybe I don't live in the country I thought I lived in.
I presume you live in UK? The answer is obvious to me, your entire life you have lived in a conservative country not a libertarian one.
Just catching up on Rigby and Chile. Witty was incredibly diplomatic. I think it needed a firmer answer.
My answer to every death rigby question would be a simple....NEEEEEXT QUESTION.
Mine would be that it’s important that we all play by the rules, isn’t it Beth? It would make her job completely untenable, if every politician she speaks to kept referring back to her own indiscretions.
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.
For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials
Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.
Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
*** ALERT. The following rambling post contains doomporn
I don’t think anyone can know what is going to happen.
Why was the cautious Downing Street briefing predicting a third wave to hit UK? And why is that even deemed controversial? I haven’t come here to knock them, because we can’t just nod when we agree with what they say, sit on our nodding when we don’t, unless Unless Science itself does help with problems but not with 100% record to make us know for sure what happens. I’m not as convinced as I had become the vaccines are going to bring this to an end anytime soon and the roadmap is leading to any end to COVID spikes and lockdowns. It all died back last year without vaccines.
The problems on the next phase I think is, 2nd and 3rd time of getting covid, where you can feel more sick than the other time and maybe even more chance of long covid the second and third time of getting sick with it, which, crucially, brings with it the issue of work age population not being able to work. The economic disaster bit of the pandemic could be yet to come.
My guess now is we are going into a lull between lockdown, also pandemic enters new phase where we try to live with it as normal as possible, yet the long covid casualties start mounting up into economic damage so all the countries go broke.
So, your view is that vaccines suddenly stop working?
It’s exactly the sort of glib one liners like yours I received back that could actually prove something is missing from the discussion. Let me explain it like this, then you could actually say wether you can see the point I am making.
Do I believe vaccines work? Is that vaccination programmes in general or just this one? I believe in general that vaccination is a great breakthrough in human science. So about covid vaccine? What do you mean work? That it makes covid disappear? If so, in what sort of timeframe
Is it really fiction for me to say the briefing today offered up potential or even likelihood of third wave in UK?
And one for you if I may. Would you put the risk, that while we come out of lockdown and try to cohabit with covid, the risk to the working population getting long covid and hurting the economy is zero - it’s such a silly point I am making it shouldn’t even be brought up and bottom out?
The risk is not zero.
This is a case of measuring benefit and cost.
Every year in the UK, more than 150,000 people are injured in road accidents and almost 2,000 people die.
What if I said there was a simple policy that could cut road deaths by 99% and accidents by more than 75%? What if I said it would reduce fossil fuel emissions? And make the streets quieter?
All we need to do is to reduce speed limits everywhere to just 15 miles per hour. That's it! It would dramatically cut accident rates and road deaths.
Now, it would of course be a massive inconvenience to people. But it would avoid many, many people suffering the lingering effects of road traffic accidents.
We - as a society - have decided that we want the economic activity that comes with being able to get people at reasonably rapid rates. It comes with a cost, of course, in terms of pollution, accidents, and the like. But we've decided that price is worth it.
There are costs to having Covid restrictions, in terms of mental and physical health, and in terms of diminished economic activity.
The rise of vaccines, and their extraordinary ability (as evidenced in Israel) to allow an essentially complete return to normal life is something to be celebrated. Now, we can disagree about the right pace of removing restrictions, but at some point they need to go.
And we can simply watch Israel here, as they will have opened up around three months before us. If cases start to rise there, and in new variants take hold, well we'll get plenty of warning. Because they are the first mover here, and we're just following in their footsteps.
Presumably he’ll make the same apology after his next visit to a mosque, or a temple?
Fans of Sir Keir talk up his competence, assuredness, and forensic eye for detail but he’s had to apologise for trying to start a fight w Boris in the commons after he got the wrong end of the stick about the EMA, & again now he’s been visiting a homophobic church that Theresa May was slaughtered for attending in the last parliament. It’s only a mile or two away from his front door, he can’t really plead ignorance. What are his redeeming features, other than not being Corbyn, and being chief Remainer?
He has a brain and had a successful career as a top barrister, I don't see anyone else in Labour doing better and most would do worse. However Boris is the best Tory leader since Thatcher so he will not find it easy
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.
For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials
Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.
Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
While I agree with everything, it is worth remembering with Israel comparisons that their booming nightclubs (and bars etc) are with a compulsory vaxport scheme.
Since I won't support a compulsory vaxport scheme we need to do better even than Israel.
We will, Israel is stuck at about 80% of the adult population, the UK will easily get past that.
It's actually slightly worse than that: 77%.
And this does not include the (Arab) residents of the Occupied Territories. So, the real chance of a refusenik Israeli adult coming across someone with Covid is actually pretty high relative to... say... what we'll have in the UK in three to six weeks time.
Though with the high rates amongst Haredi and also Arab Israelis the remaining 23% must include a fair number of survivors with antibodies.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
Starmer owes you nothing. Stop whinging about him. You wouldn't vote Labour in a million years.
In England we find ourselves in a two party system at present. If you are too precious to let me vote for your Labour Party then just who am I supposed to vote for if I want the government to crash?
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.
For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials
Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.
Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
While I agree with everything, it is worth remembering with Israel comparisons that their booming nightclubs (and bars etc) are with a compulsory vaxport scheme.
Since I won't support a compulsory vaxport scheme we need to do better even than Israel.
We will, Israel is stuck at about 80% of the adult population, the UK will easily get past that.
It's actually slightly worse than that: 77%.
And this does not include the (Arab) residents of the Occupied Territories. So, the real chance of a refusenik Israeli adult coming across someone with Covid is actually pretty high relative to... say... what we'll have in the UK in three to six weeks time.
Though with the high rates amongst Haredi and also Arab Israelis the remaining 23% must include a fair number of survivors with antibodies.
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
Am I deluded?
The trouble is that when push comes to shove, there are so few Tory MPs with sufficiently firm principles to do anything other than make a bit of a whinge before heading into the Aye lobby. The pointless money wasting mass testing, the social distancing and masks for another year, the Stasi app... any of them by themselves would warrant a letter to 1922. But all three?! What is Tissue Price's position?
At some point the Great British Public will say enough of all this. Then the tide will go out and they will found wanting.
Or maybe I don't live in the country I thought I lived in.
I presume you live in UK? The answer is obvious to me, your entire life you have lived in a conservative country not a libertarian one.
If it were genuinely a conservative country it would be sceptical of state power and grand solutions.
Being in favour of traditional British freedoms does not make one a libertarian. It makes one .... well ..... British.
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
Am I deluded?
The trouble is that when push comes to shove, there are so few Tory MPs with sufficiently firm principles to do anything other than make a bit of a whinge before heading into the Aye lobby. The pointless money wasting mass testing, the social distancing and masks for another year, the Stasi app... any of them by themselves would warrant a letter to 1922. But all three?! What is Tissue Price's position?
At some point the Great British Public will say enough of all this. Then the tide will go out and they will found wanting.
Or maybe I don't live in the country I thought I lived in.
I presume you live in UK? The answer is obvious to me, your entire life you have lived in a conservative country not a libertarian one.
I thought conservatives were in favour of maintaining our bedrock freedoms and traditions?
Seems it is only the flag itself and not the freedoms, history and way of life it represents that matters to this lot.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
Most indicators show he is losing the public through dithering and fence sitting
I believe he is a decent mp but to be honest he is bland, trying too hard to be popular, and frightened of his shadow
However, in just over four weeks the huge opinion poll across the UK, including Hartlepool by election, will be a big moment for the Labour Party if the present trend in the polls continues to election day
We are being roadmapped to a national id and health status app that tracks your movements.
And Johnson can't bring himself to even talk properly about. Just bluster about we wont need it to go to the pub next Monday.
Jeh, thanks.
Yup, it's so obvious that Hancock and Gove are pushing this now. Look at the new bullshit model that's been briefed out tonight. They're simply trying to scare people into accepting that this is the price of a "free" society. Look at how so many usually well informed people on here have accepted that business will not be able to operate as normal without them when there is no scientific basis for that to be true.
The backbone of the conservative party needs to act now. Surely the vast majority of the membership don't want a "papers please" society and will have no truck with digital id apps and all that big state crap?
Am I deluded?
The trouble is that when push comes to shove, there are so few Tory MPs with sufficiently firm principles to do anything other than make a bit of a whinge before heading into the Aye lobby. The pointless money wasting mass testing, the social distancing and masks for another year, the Stasi app... any of them by themselves would warrant a letter to 1922. But all three?! What is Tissue Price's position?
At some point the Great British Public will say enough of all this. Then the tide will go out and they will found wanting.
Or maybe I don't live in the country I thought I lived in.
I presume you live in UK? The answer is obvious to me, your entire life you have lived in a conservative country not a libertarian one.
I thought conservatives were in favour of maintaining our bedrock freedoms and traditions?
Seems it is only the flag itself and not the freedoms, history and way of life it represents that matters to this lot.
I don't get why so many people were ok with the govt locking us indoors for a year and are now horrified at them being cautious about letting us all out again - I must be one of a a small number on here who was angry about the former but can understand the latter
It's quite bizarre and almost hysterical the way people are over-reacting to the Government being cautious. At this point we have a hugely successful vaccine programme but no-one can know yet , for example, how long the vaccines will provide protection and there is still some uncertainty about the potential impact of variants and the extent to which transmission is controlled. All of the signs are good but it would be wilfully irresponsible of any government to declare it's all over and let's all party! Obviously I can understand how exhausted people are - personally I have at least 2 months to wait for a vaccine here in Spain so I do get it. However, I see people here displaying the traits of the very worst of the crappy journalists. Cyclefree's declaration that now she's being jabbed the government can get stuffed was just one of the appalling and least sensitive comments, but she is not alone.
We do know the answer to many of those questions, though.
For a start, the people on the clinical trials are still being studied, and there doesn't seem to be any let up in protection for people on the Pfizer jab. (Bear in mind some of these people had their first shot 10 or 11 months ago now) If protection was going to fade quickly, we'd see it in the numbers from the trials
Secondly, we know that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is not dented by either Kent or Saffer Covid. There is some diminution in efficacy for AZ for the SA variant (although that is likely overstated by the very limited trial), but the other vaccines seem to also be pretty good against it.
Thirdly, we can look at Israel, They're a little ahead of us (and the AZ vaccine takes longer to cash its protective halo), but they are now essentially fully open to travel and their nightclubs are now booming. If there is a variant that can completely evade the vaccines, we'll see it soon enough there.
*** ALERT. The following rambling post contains doomporn
I don’t think anyone can know what is going to happen.
Why was the cautious Downing Street briefing predicting a third wave to hit UK? And why is that even deemed controversial? I haven’t come here to knock them, because we can’t just nod when we agree with what they say, sit on our nodding when we don’t, unless Unless Science itself does help with problems but not with 100% record to make us know for sure what happens. I’m not as convinced as I had become the vaccines are going to bring this to an end anytime soon and the roadmap is leading to any end to COVID spikes and lockdowns. It all died back last year without vaccines.
The problems on the next phase I think is, 2nd and 3rd time of getting covid, where you can feel more sick than the other time and maybe even more chance of long covid the second and third time of getting sick with it, which, crucially, brings with it the issue of work age population not being able to work. The economic disaster bit of the pandemic could be yet to come.
My guess now is we are going into a lull between lockdown, also pandemic enters new phase where we try to live with it as normal as possible, yet the long covid casualties start mounting up into economic damage so all the countries go broke.
So, your view is that vaccines suddenly stop working?
It’s exactly the sort of glib one liners like yours I received back that could actually prove something is missing from the discussion. Let me explain it like this, then you could actually say wether you can see the point I am making.
Do I believe vaccines work? Is that vaccination programmes in general or just this one? I believe in general that vaccination is a great breakthrough in human science. So about covid vaccine? What do you mean work? That it makes covid disappear? If so, in what sort of timeframe
Is it really fiction for me to say the briefing today offered up potential or even likelihood of third wave in UK?
And one for you if I may. Would you put the risk, that while we come out of lockdown and try to cohabit with covid, the risk to the working population getting long covid and hurting the economy is zero - it’s such a silly point I am making it shouldn’t even be brought up and bottom out?
You seem to spend most of your either hinting at or directly forecasting misery and disaster. It’s little wonder people respond with concise sentences, to do otherwise would require successive lengthy essays saying the same thing.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
The government don't have time to control the tourists, they are far too busy devising schemes to control access in and out of pubs.
Are they actually tourists though? It's not as if the sights are open!
For example one of my Greek colleagues reappeared last week after 10 days in his flat to do a locum. He has residence rights, but a Greek passport, and arrived for work, but would look like a tourist in the stats as he doesn't need a work visa.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
Andy Burnham maybe
He has come as near as anybody, when he refused to accept the Manchester lockdown was right.
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
Angela Rayner...and as Deputy she gets the gig for some months during a contest.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
Starmer owes you nothing. Stop whinging about him. You wouldn't vote Labour in a million years.
In England we find ourselves in a two party system at present. If you are too precious to let me vote for your Labour Party then just who am I supposed to vote for if I want the government to crash?
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
Andy Burnham maybe
He has come as near as anybody, when he refused to accept the Manchester lockdown was right.
But he was wrong....all that playing hardball just cost lives.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
Angela Rayner...and as Deputy she gets the gig for some months during a contest.
Angela Rayner is ghastly, appallingly rude in the Commons and barely has a GCSE, even Corbyn was better than she would be
We had enough questions asked about vaccine passports today to know that the PM cannot, or will not, answer them. Given the ferocity of the debate ahead — and the depth of concern in his party — this bodes ill.
The issue is a classic. Opinions are easy and everyone can switch their opinions at will. To do nothing (far the easiest to implement) may well be absolutely impossible, especially in the international sphere. To do something sounds great until you actually try to decide enough policy to be able to draft some legislation. At that point it becomes a legal drafting nightmare; followed by a parliamentary nightmare of opposition from a sensible right, left and liberal caucus; followed immediately by a nightmare of implementation.
IMHO getting is right is almost impossible, getting it wrong could be the stuff of which governments don't recover. Being the opposition is a piece of cake.
It is the biggest immediate danger to the government's long term survival.
If it is humanly possible the safest course is for government only to allow commerce etc to impose the rules it wishes, and to legislate to permit but not require every individual to possess, free, a vaccine status document just like a driving licence.
It is the safest but also the right course.
If companies wish to impose rules that's their choice; if customers want venues to impose rules that's their choice.
It isn't the states choice. They're not responsible.
We've gotten too used to the state making our decisions for us this past year, it isn't healthy. People should make their own decisions.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
Jess Phillips would have done better I feel. That's with hindsight - I can't remember who I felt would be best at the time.
Jess Phillips is probably the only credible Labour alternative in the Commons but she is even further right than Starmer, so would not get the gig even if she wanted it
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
Blair was also a London lawyer and managed to win the Midlands and Red Wall
I have to say there is a serious lack of talent on the opposition benches. Not a single MP stands out as being able to take the fight to the government. All spineless.
I agree. Might seem an odd question but do Labour's rules require leadership nominees to be MPs or can they be Lords?
I am serious about Jo Rowling. She'd wipe the floor with all of them if she wanted to.
Given the increasingly threadbare economic case for Scexit, which I think would be amplified by a referendum campaign if managed properly, I almost wondering if Boris might go along with the demand for one.
I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.
I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
I must admit, your last point there, I don't totally get where this view that Sturgeon is not committed to Sindy is coming from. I mean, I'm sure there are plenty of people in the SNP machine who are just comfortable with their big secure lucrative jobs, you get that in politics, but Nicola Sturgeon herself? I don't see it. Sindy has been the cause of her life. Perhaps she has lost interest, only she knows, but the evidence for this is not obvious to me.
The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.
What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
I don't disagree. But there's certainly a meme which casts doubt on her commitment. Actually, I don't think her commitment is in doubt, it's just that the economic case is such a slam dunk against Indy, that it would be very challenging to lead a successful campaign and be honest about the deficit, currency, pensions, mortgage risk, capital flight etc etc. You can see the attraction of just making a noise about Indy while presiding queen-like at Bute House.
Agree. I do not doubt Nicola's philosophical commitment to independence, but it like our collective commitment to world peace and the abolition of poverty, at best it is slow progress and it isn't actually going to happen.
If following Brexit the indy cause can't get polling at 60% or so - and they can't - it is hard to see it happening. To win a Ref2 they need to be at 60% or so now, because their actual case is so terrible they are bound to suffer losses in a campaign.
Until the weather changes Nicola needs to keep this on the permanent horizon. (Hint: Christianity has been doing this about the second coming for 2000 years and it works fine).
But if you're saying Sturgeon is not keen for a quick referendum because she knows it will be another No - which kills Sindy for the foreseeable future - this would be by your own logic the correct approach for someone truly committed to the cause.
You are trying to have your cake and eat it, argumentally.
I continue to wait for actual evidence that she cares far more about being FM than about achieving an independent Scotland.
No, I think we are agreed about Nicola Sturgeon. She does want independence, and isn't going to go for it until she can get it. As it happens I don't think that time can be foreseen. The difference I suspect is only that we are on different sides about the outcome we would like and the strength of the case once the gloves were off and campaigning mode began.
Nicola Sturgeon is one of the two outstandingly able politicians in the UK. My admiration for her is almost limitless. I just think she is wrong. So do most people who, like me, live in close to the border of England and Scotland.
Sturgeon's problem is that she no idea what to do if - when - Boris refuses a 2nd indyref. She clearly believes in indy, she would love to be the FM that delivered it, but there is no obvious route. Moreover, she has got a reputation, however unfair, for havering. Whereas Salmond is the man who looks like he REALLY wants it and will start riots if needs be (tho in fact I am unsure he has any better ideas that Sturgeon)
If the choice is between NS who says 'I would like independence but the polls aren't there for us' and Salmond who is saying (you suggest) '50% want independence so let's have a riot' a lot of unionists - about 50% of the population - will back NS on that issue. There are plenty of people who don't want Scotland turned into either Catalonia or NI.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
I was never convinced. I think that next year, unless there is a major turnaround he should step down.
Who do you think would or should replace him?
The one I would least like to lead Labour is Jess Phillips, but I'm fairly confident Labour won't choose her. She lacks the right genitals to be leader of the Labour Party to start with.
People aged under-30 in the UK may stop being given the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, over concerns about rare blood clots, according to Channel 4 News.
Several countries across Europe have suspended its use in their vaccine programmes over the concerns, and data on Friday showed that seven people had died from blood clots in the UK after getting the jab.
“Two senior sources have told this programme that while the data is still unclear, there are growing arguments to justify offering younger people – below the age of 30 at the very least – a different vaccine,” the broadcaster reported on Monday night.
The UK’s regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), said no decision had been taken. The body, along with several scientists, said the benefits of the vaccine in preventing Covid far outweigh the small risks of blood clots, and continue to encourage people to get their jabs.
Banging on about LGBT on Twitter rather than opposing some of the worst and most significant policy of recent decades?
I'm giving up on Starmer. He's just not up to it.
The only Labour figure who might have done better than Starmer is Chuka Umunna, who is similar ideologically but more charismatic.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
That’s a good point - I always thought he should be Labour Leader. He would be doing much better in my view
Chuka was just another smug London politico. He would not have connected with the Midlands, still less with Red Wall Labour. Labour needs somebody from Sheffield or Leeds or Newcastle who would not flinch from kicking Boris in the bollocks (politically).
Blair was also a London lawyer and managed to win the Midlands and Red Wall
Chuka is Tony Blair with the bullshit / insincerity turned up to 11...000.
Comments
If Boris's wheels came off properly they would do so with a screech of brakes, smash of glass and scrunching metal, and in particular if the magic of his charisma vanished through the wrong sort of scandal (clearly conventional scandals won't hack it) or mistake on the Iraq/poll tax/Suez/25% inflation/15% mortgage rate/house price halve scale very quickly his style and rumpled look would cease to entertain and amuse and people would reflect on whether private character and public life may be related and have a fit of moral probity.
At that point SKS looks just the ticket, and the Tory cabinet look like a Guardian cartoon.
Just as Boris v Nicola is a great show (with N v Salmond as side attraction), waiting for the Godot of Boris's wheels coming off is the stuff of politics nerds. Avoiding it must be about Boris's number 1 concern.
You keep claiming with a straight face that the press were briefed but I've not seen a single press release showing they were. The press reporting something doesn't make it so.
All that background means that Pigovian taxes won't really work here. You basically have to give things like vaccines out for free to anyone, if you assume, as the government does, that nobody's protected till everybody is.
As a conscientious tax payer, I won't be volunteering for a covid test ever again once I'm two vaccines down, which is about 4 weeks away.
The social distancing rules can already hang themselves, given my entire family has already had one vaccine and are hence safe from serious infection.
And I'll either rely on a paper vaccine certificate or if not allowed, will refrain from doing anything that requires the app.
Enough is enough. Come on Starmer you pathetic excuse for a leader. Lead! Work with Tory backbenchers to kill the government's majority on all this. Give us a reason to cheer you just once and perhaps, just perhaps, you'll be thanked for it in May and 2024.
And this does not include the (Arab) residents of the Occupied Territories. So, the real chance of a refusenik Israeli adult coming across someone with Covid is actually pretty high relative to... say... what we'll have in the UK in three to six weeks time.
"As with most Covid policies over the last year, I find the polling on this to be simply not credible, with some results showing support at over 70%. For identity papers. To go to the pub. In Britain. Never have I ever felt so disconnected for such a sustained period of time from what seems to be majority opinion in this country, assuming that it really is majority opinion. Either the Great British public have indeed lost their minds after being scared into submission, or something is just way off about the polls themselves. "
Life will be much easier for her if she can play the underdog for the rest of her political career.
Get off the bloody fence for once and oppose FFS.
Am I deluded?
My kind of politician
1. They mean people that do catch the disease don't get so sick
2. They mean that fewer people are spreading the disease, and there are fewer people around to be carriers.
At the start of the programme, it was all about 1: find the most vulnerable, and get 'em jabbed. And it has broadly worked.
Now, it's all about 2. And we have to look to Israel to see how efficacious this is. This is a country that opened cafes, restaurants, nightclubs, sporting events, and removed the majority of restrictions to travel.
Israel now has few restrictions than at any time since the start of the CV19 pandemic.
Cases in Israel... continue to trend down. And we can be sure that Saffer & Kent & Brazilan Covid have gotten there, because that's the nature of a world where people travel.
If we see cases start to spike in Israel, then yes, that would be a sign that the vaccine aren't working. But that's not what we're seeing. In fact, despite the fact that they are probably importing a dozen or more cases every day, the number of people catching CV19 in Israel contiues to fall - a clear sign that (because of vaccines) R is now comfortably below 1 there.
Now, we're not quite at the same level of protection as Israel yet. But we're not a million from there. In six weeks we'll surpass Israel as far as percentage of adult population having had at least one dose, and we're not going to be far off their two dose level.
To do something sounds great until you actually try to decide enough policy to be able to draft some legislation. At that point it becomes a legal drafting nightmare; followed by a parliamentary nightmare of opposition from a sensible right, left and liberal caucus; followed immediately by a nightmare of implementation.
IMHO getting is right is almost impossible, getting it wrong could be the stuff of which governments don't recover. Being the opposition is a piece of cake.
It is the biggest immediate danger to the government's long term survival.
If it is humanly possible the safest course is for government only to allow commerce etc to impose the rules it wishes, and to legislate to permit but not require every individual to possess, free, a vaccine status document just like a driving licence.
I usually dislike the playing of base politics, but is the LOTO really too blind to see a good chance of defeating the government here?
He should be working with the libertarian Tories, he won’t need to look too far to find 45 of them willing to vote against.
He’ll probably whip Labour to abstain.
https://bit.ly/3cSGy4Z
Or maybe I don't live in the country I thought I lived in.
Boris has to look generous and pensive, but be flinty in his refusal of indyref2, then he has a real prospect of watching YES split in two. However his refusal may inflame Nat opinion and unite them. Impossible to say
Perilous times for both sides. Boris has to and will say No, however, as he is the PM of the UK and has to act in the interests of the entire UK (Scotland included). Let all British MPs in the Commons have a free vote on indyref2, or not. Then close the book for a few years
The only difference is that the briefing will be on camera. Doing briefings is not original to Allegra.
It is however a black majority church, showing again the clashes between the cultural left and some of the most socially conservative BAME elements within the Labour Party coalition
[JOKE!]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9436555/8-000-foreign-tourists-allowed-UK-DAY.html
Do I believe vaccines work? Is that vaccination programmes in general or just this one? I believe in general that vaccination is a great breakthrough in human science. So about covid vaccine? What do you mean work? That it makes covid disappear? If so, in what sort of timeframe
Is it really fiction for me to say the briefing today offered up potential or even likelihood of third wave in UK?
And one for you if I may. Would you put the risk, that while we come out of lockdown and try to cohabit with covid, the risk to the working population getting long covid and hurting the economy is zero - it’s such a silly point I am making it shouldn’t even be brought up and bottom out?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1379170604251758595?s=19
Apparently he is now annoyed that the Telegraph sought to highlight his own words when he said vaxports were "unbritish".
Presumably because he was still waiting to be told which side of the fence to dangle his legs over.
This is a case of measuring benefit and cost.
Every year in the UK, more than 150,000 people are injured in road accidents and almost 2,000 people die.
What if I said there was a simple policy that could cut road deaths by 99% and accidents by more than 75%? What if I said it would reduce fossil fuel emissions? And make the streets quieter?
All we need to do is to reduce speed limits everywhere to just 15 miles per hour. That's it! It would dramatically cut accident rates and road deaths.
Now, it would of course be a massive inconvenience to people. But it would avoid many, many people suffering the lingering effects of road traffic accidents.
We - as a society - have decided that we want the economic activity that comes with being able to get people at reasonably rapid rates. It comes with a cost, of course, in terms of pollution, accidents, and the like. But we've decided that price is worth it.
There are costs to having Covid restrictions, in terms of mental and physical health, and in terms of diminished economic activity.
The rise of vaccines, and their extraordinary ability (as evidenced in Israel) to allow an essentially complete return to normal life is something to be celebrated. Now, we can disagree about the right pace of removing restrictions, but at some point they need to go.
And we can simply watch Israel here, as they will have opened up around three months before us. If cases start to rise there, and in new variants take hold, well we'll get plenty of warning. Because they are the first mover here, and we're just following in their footsteps.
Unfortunately for Labour he left for the LDs and is now working as a corporate adviser
Being in favour of traditional British freedoms does not make one a libertarian. It makes one .... well ..... British.
Seems it is only the flag itself and not the freedoms, history and way of life it represents that matters to this lot.
I believe he is a decent mp but to be honest he is bland, trying too hard to be popular, and frightened of his shadow
However, in just over four weeks the huge opinion poll across the UK, including Hartlepool by election, will be a big moment for the Labour Party if the present trend in the polls continues to election day
There is a reason McEnroe doesn't try to qualify for the Wimbledon main draw.
For example one of my Greek colleagues reappeared last week after 10 days in his flat to do a locum. He has residence rights, but a Greek passport, and arrived for work, but would look like a tourist in the stats as he doesn't need a work visa.
If companies wish to impose rules that's their choice; if customers want venues to impose rules that's their choice.
It isn't the states choice. They're not responsible.
We've gotten too used to the state making our decisions for us this past year, it isn't healthy. People should make their own decisions.
https://twitter.com/CarlSurvation/status/1379183810277949441?s=19
I am serious about Jo Rowling. She'd wipe the floor with all of them if she wanted to.
Several countries across Europe have suspended its use in their vaccine programmes over the concerns, and data on Friday showed that seven people had died from blood clots in the UK after getting the jab.
“Two senior sources have told this programme that while the data is still unclear, there are growing arguments to justify offering younger people – below the age of 30 at the very least – a different vaccine,” the broadcaster reported on Monday night.
The UK’s regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), said no decision had been taken. The body, along with several scientists, said the benefits of the vaccine in preventing Covid far outweigh the small risks of blood clots, and continue to encourage people to get their jabs.