I imagine (no evidence) that schoolchildren have been the main vector of infection in the last few months. If I'm right then the idea that Labour have that you vaccinate teachers and reopen schools would be the worst thing you could do. You'd establish the infection-network and yet remove the most obvious indicators.
Supposedly secondary schools being opened adds 0.2 to 0.4 to R by itself.
That may actually be an understatement when you consider the Kent strain and the desire of Greenwich and elsewhere to close schools as soon as it was discovered.
We're always being told how hard up everyone is because of the lockdown.
Well of course many people have been very badly affected - but on the other hand an awful lot of people are miles better off.
In total the British public has saved - ie banked - an additional £150bn.
There are approx 25m households - so that's £6,000 per household on average.
So for every household which has saved nothing, another has banked £12,000.
And people wonder why the Conservatives win elections - well forget everything to do with policies - before you start there's a big pool of people with piles of cash and they know which Party is least likely to be going after it (!)
Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.
Oh dear.
Max did you see my question upthread?
Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
Thanks. And interesting (small numbers).
I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.
If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
The vaccine passport issue is about reducing indoor risk to eliminate social distancing and putting social pressure on refuseniks so our herd immunity isn't undermined. Ultimately we all have a responsibility to each other to be vaccinated and if people who refuse are limited in what they can do by private businesses then I think it's fair.
Yes I get that. If people aren't vaccinated then they may well get ill themselves and then be a burden on the NHS.
If they get ill and are asymptomatic, however, then if they pose the same risk as someone who hasn't been vaccinated there is no big issue in getting vaccinated for the end of restrictions. Just that everyone (may) get it just that no one goes to hospital.
I will be getting vaccinated be clear. But it is the logic and the narrative around vaccinations that interests me. They are being talked about as though they stop onwards transmission hence my question to you.
If, say, someone with the virus goes to Greece, it doesn't matter (as far as we know for sure) whether they have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission risk. So vaccine passports are moot.
There's an increasing amount of evidence that the vaccinated - even if they catch CV19 - are not particularly contagious.
I thought the subject matter experts were very confident - albeit perhaps not 100% sure - that having the vaccine not only reduces your chances of getting sick IF you're infected but also reduces your chances of getting infected at all.
Is this not right?
They are very confident. The questions are:
(1) Of the people who do not become symptomatic carriers of CV19, how many are unsymptomatic? and (2) How contagious are these people?
We don't really know the answer to either definitively, but we do know that those people who were symptomatically sick with CV19 after being vaccinated demonstrated very low levels of viral shedding, so that it is a very good reason to be confident that the vaccinated population will not be major spreaders of the disease.
The question is does the vaccine reduce the viral load in the host and hence reduce viral shedding or is the reduction in viral shedding because of the lack of symptoms ie coughs and sneezes (which spread diseases, apparently).
Yes & yes.
(And remember, you cough and sneeze when you have a cold because viruses that makes you cough and sneeze are better at spreading. It's not your body trying to expel the virus, it's the virus trying to spread to other hosts. Evolutionary pressure, innit.)
I imagine (no evidence) that schoolchildren have been the main vector of infection in the last few months. If I'm right then the idea that Labour have that you vaccinate teachers and reopen schools would be the worst thing you could do. You'd establish the infection-network and yet remove the most obvious indicators.
Supposedly secondary schools being opened adds 0.2 to 0.4 to R by itself.
That may actually be an understatement when you consider the Kent strain and the desire of Greenwich and elsewhere to close schools as soon as it was discovered.
Oh yeah - I'm almost certainly wrong. There's not so much evidence one way or another. However given that there's little evidence then one can guess where the evidence might lay - and I really suspect the short folk.
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
It's hard to see how she might be given that Corbyn's politics are forever stuck in the 1970s. But I think it's probably fair to say that HYUFD doesn't understand US politics very well.
I'd say we do not have a 'UK AOC' - but I hope one is bubbling under.
She's certainly more left wing than I am, but lefty social democrat rather than out and out socialist, I think. Quoted as favouring policies that "most closely resemble what we see in the U.K., in Norway, in Finland, in Sweden...", so in Europe she'd be more of a consensus politician.
In many ways yes. Certainly a social democrat not a socialist. I think maybe her "radical left" aura comes from the woke side of things. I happen to lap that up - I think it's really important and worth pushing and pushing - but of course to the other side it's red rag. So she gets demonized and lionized at the same time. Hate object. Love object. Then the youth and the looks and the media savvy and you have a stick of dynamite.
I imagine (no evidence) that schoolchildren have been the main vector of infection in the last few months. If I'm right then the idea that Labour have that you vaccinate teachers and reopen schools would be the worst thing you could do. You'd establish the infection-network and yet remove the most obvious indicators.
I would open primary schools up post half term, and secondary post Easter. I'm not sure what I'd do with Universities yet.
Is it (Sputnik 5) actually approved? Or did a couple of Europeans just say nice things about it?
I'd also note that the Russians are currently running at about the same pace as Romania (in terms of *absolute* doses given, so it's far from clear they have meaningful quantities available for export.
I imagine (no evidence) that schoolchildren have been the main vector of infection in the last few months. If I'm right then the idea that Labour have that you vaccinate teachers and reopen schools would be the worst thing you could do. You'd establish the infection-network and yet remove the most obvious indicators.
I would open primary schools up post half term, and secondary post Easter. I'm not sure what I'd do with Universities yet.
So you discount entirely my idea that the bug is being spread by those that are immune to the symptoms?
I agree with the EU as far as their stance on this letter is concerned - it seems the letter has really been set up to 'fail' and provoke conflict with the EU. Why, I don't know.
Maybe Gove is on manoeuvres. He must look at Johnson and think "why is this hopeless bumbling numpty my boss?". I personally find Gove repulsive, but unlike Johnson he does have some track record in being an effective minister
Mrs Gove has told Mr Gove that he messed up his big chance. The undoubted fact that Mrs Gove buggered up Mr Gove's chances won't be featuring in their conversations.
That well-known quote overlooked that not only great men have women standing behind them?
I imagine (no evidence) that schoolchildren have been the main vector of infection in the last few months. If I'm right then the idea that Labour have that you vaccinate teachers and reopen schools would be the worst thing you could do. You'd establish the infection-network and yet remove the most obvious indicators.
I would open primary schools up post half term, and secondary post Easter. I'm not sure what I'd do with Universities yet.
numbers will be smaller - most teaching is online so its not opening a mass return to class rooms and lectures.
subjects with core practical elements should be allowed to run practicals.
I imagine (no evidence) that schoolchildren have been the main vector of infection in the last few months. If I'm right then the idea that Labour have that you vaccinate teachers and reopen schools would be the worst thing you could do. You'd establish the infection-network and yet remove the most obvious indicators.
I would open primary schools up post half term, and secondary post Easter. I'm not sure what I'd do with Universities yet.
Universities can go back when everyone’s been vaccinated! Socially distancing students is worse than herding cats.
Let them open labs after Easter, but everyone else to stay off campus and quarantine everyone who travels.
That lines up exactly with what the expert I spoke to said, this is the largest source of immune response evading mutations. They said the WHO should put out a general notification to stop countries from using convalescent plasma as a treatment option even if it means more individual deaths.
I agree with the EU as far as their stance on this letter is concerned - it seems the letter has really been set up to 'fail' and provoke conflict with the EU. Why, I don't know.
I saw Gove's letter a start of a negotiation. He clearly goes beyond reasonable, but the idea is ludicrous that Article 16 was accidentally invoked (Barnier saw it as a clear error), alongside the other vaccine steps around banning export to UK (but not Syria), and Macron and others casting doubts around a vaccine they were also complaining wasn't effective.
For some reason the EU is now sucking up to Russia (yes Russia) for a vaccine that didn't even go through the Phase 3 trial process. In fact their actions still seem to be those of a trade negotiation rather than a partnership trying to ensure vital medical supplies.
They would be better off understanding that as a country we are uniquely positioned to deliver the vaccine programme. Dense population means that large centralised vaccination centres are feasible, alongside free at point of use network of local healthcare and high trust in NHS, doctors, nurses and vaccines. They could probably vaccinate the entire population by May if sufficient vaccine and out of hours staff were available - I know I would drive 30 mins during the night to one of local hub delivery centres for a vaccine - I can't be the only one.
The confusion over whether or not the government has promised to vaccinate over 50s by May is odd, surely? At current rate, this should be an easy target. I am in my 50s and everything I have seen suggests I’ll be done in late March or early April.
I imagine (no evidence) that schoolchildren have been the main vector of infection in the last few months. If I'm right then the idea that Labour have that you vaccinate teachers and reopen schools would be the worst thing you could do. You'd establish the infection-network and yet remove the most obvious indicators.
I would open primary schools up post half term, and secondary post Easter. I'm not sure what I'd do with Universities yet.
There is already plenty of evidence that teachers are not particularly at risk. My experience of dropping my kids off is that this causes huge queues outside the school in adjacent streets leading to close proximity to other parents as impossible to move around socially distanced.
I agree with the EU as far as their stance on this letter is concerned - it seems the letter has really been set up to 'fail' and provoke conflict with the EU. Why, I don't know.
I saw Gove's letter a start of a negotiation. He clearly goes beyond reasonable, but the idea is ludicrous that Article 16 was accidentally invoked (Barnier saw it as a clear error), alongside the other vaccine steps around banning export to UK (but not Syria), and Macron and others casting doubts around a vaccine they were also complaining wasn't effective.
For some reason the EU is now sucking up to Russia (yes Russia) for a vaccine that didn't even go through the Phase 3 trial process. In fact their actions still seem to be those of a trade negotiation rather than a partnership trying to ensure vital medical supplies.
They would be better off understanding that as a country we are uniquely positioned to deliver the vaccine programme. Dense population means that large centralised vaccination centres are feasible, alongside free at point of use network of local healthcare and high trust in NHS, doctors, nurses and vaccines. They could probably vaccinate the entire population by May if sufficient vaccine and out of hours staff were available - I know I would drive 30 mins during the night to one of local hub delivery centres for a vaccine - I can't be the only one.
To be clear, I'm not trying to absolve the EU of all blame, and I wouldn't necessarily have asked for any less than Gove - we need frictionless trade between GB and NI, that's the bottom line. However, if I was sending a letter with a load of requests in it, I don't think I'd heap it full of references to the EU's awful behaviour (although their behaviour has been awful). I think I might touch on it and say how it demonstrates that the issues are complex.
My brother, who had Covid last year and has some pre-existing medical conditions, is due for his vaccination next week which has pleased me.
I hope my vaccination is only a few weeks away but obviously as age drops the numbers rise so we'll see if the logistics are up to the challenge - at present one can only be encouraged.
That lines up exactly with what the expert I spoke to said, this is the largest source of immune response evading mutations. They said the WHO should put out a general notification to stop countries from using convalescent plasma as a treatment option even if it means more individual deaths.
The treatment literally creates an existential threat to humanity. Of course it should be stopped.
That lines up exactly with what the expert I spoke to said, this is the largest source of immune response evading mutations. They said the WHO should put out a general notification to stop countries from using convalescent plasma as a treatment option even if it means more individual deaths.
The treatment literally creates an existential threat to humanity. Of course it should be stopped.
Didn't Germany just buy a whole load of antibody treatments?
Definitely agree that it should be stopped. It hasn't even proved to be very effective for individuals anyway.
Opened up my first Stocks and Shares ISA today with a high-risk equities only index fund. Onwards and upwards to stock market domination I think.
Set yourself a stop loss, just to be safe. This feels like it could turn into a “sell in May” year, to me.
Wouldn't that just lock in a sale at a loss, rather than holding on to your tracker funds which will eventually (this year it took 5 months from a massive crash to be back in profit) recover.
That lines up exactly with what the expert I spoke to said, this is the largest source of immune response evading mutations. They said the WHO should put out a general notification to stop countries from using convalescent plasma as a treatment option even if it means more individual deaths.
The treatment literally creates an existential threat to humanity. Of course it should be stopped.
Knowing and advocating for that I'd stick immune compromised people above all current categories (90+ & healthcare workers) as priority for the jabs everywhere.
Just catching up on today's events at the moment. The uselessness of the travel restrictions/quarantine policy continues to alarm. Helpful that the Government is tripping over itself in the rush to open the schools, but knowing them that could change in the next hour, never mind tomorrow. More encouraging news re: the MHRA and the fact that they've apparently received more trial data confirming the efficacy of the AZ jab in the olds.
[referring to the English troops] Duchess of Richmond: They're the salt of England, Arthur. Duke of Wellington: Scum. Nothing but beggars and scoundrels, all of them. Gin is the spirit of their patriotism. Duchess of Richmond: Yet you expect them to die for you? Duke of Wellington: Um-hum. Duchess of Richmond: Out of duty? Duke of Wellington: Um-hum. Duchess of Richmond: I doubt if even Bonaparte could draw men to him by duty. Duke of Wellington: Oh, Boney's not a gentleman. Duchess of Richmond: Arthur! What an Englishman you are. Duke of Wellington: On the field of battle his hat is worth fifty thousand men; but he is not a gentleman.
The confusion over whether or not the government has promised to vaccinate over 50s by May is odd, surely? At current rate, this should be an easy target. I am in my 50s and everything I have seen suggests I’ll be done in late March or early April.
Two possibilities:
1. They have genuine concerns (for reasons that we may not be wholly privy to) about supply down the line, and are therefore managing expectations 2. They've finally learned to under-promise and over-deliver, resulting in an easy political victory
They seem to trust the bot more than the intern in marketing or customer service who usuallly does this sort of job.
For certain types of query a bot will beat a person any day. For example, if someone is asking about flight times, terminals, gates, baggage allowances, for those sort of things the bot is best. It would be nuts to have a person responding to such queries when a bot is going to be near perfect and very fast to respond. Of course you have to have to be able to deal with the 1 in 10 queries that doesn't fit a pigeon hole, and you had better have someone who really knows what's what for the 1 in a million when getting it wrong could spell real trouble.
Just have to feel for the plebs that don't have their own dedicated customer support line.
I assumed everyone had a dedicated customer support line 😇
My brother in law is very impressed with your bank's voice recognition abilities.
I’m glad it’s going down well.
Sadly I’m the Prince Harry of our family - have more fun with my beautiful Californian wife - but my brother minds the shop
Comments
From case data
From hospitalisations
That may actually be an understatement when you consider the Kent strain and the desire of Greenwich and elsewhere to close schools as soon as it was discovered.
We do take the trouble go out each week to get something from our local pub.
With interest rates low, the govt should be selling War Bonds.
We just need to hold on for two to three more weeks. It's not going to be easy but we have to do it.
(And remember, you cough and sneeze when you have a cold because viruses that makes you cough and sneeze are better at spreading. It's not your body trying to expel the virus, it's the virus trying to spread to other hosts. Evolutionary pressure, innit.)
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1357727047259480066?s=20
(I've no view here - just think it's possible)
subjects with core practical elements should be allowed to run practicals.
Let them open labs after Easter, but everyone else to stay off campus and quarantine everyone who travels.
For some reason the EU is now sucking up to Russia (yes Russia) for a vaccine that didn't even go through the Phase 3 trial process. In fact their actions still seem to be those of a trade negotiation rather than a partnership trying to ensure vital medical supplies.
They would be better off understanding that as a country we are uniquely positioned to deliver the vaccine programme. Dense population means that large centralised vaccination centres are feasible, alongside free at point of use network of local healthcare and high trust in NHS, doctors, nurses and vaccines. They could probably vaccinate the entire population by May if sufficient vaccine and out of hours staff were available - I know I would drive 30 mins during the night to one of local hub delivery centres for a vaccine - I can't be the only one.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=USA~GBR®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=daily&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc
The US certainly has a dynamic range. What is happening at the moment?
My brother, who had Covid last year and has some pre-existing medical conditions, is due for his vaccination next week which has pleased me.
I hope my vaccination is only a few weeks away but obviously as age drops the numbers rise so we'll see if the logistics are up to the challenge - at present one can only be encouraged.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/feb/05/christopher-plummer-sound-of-music-star-and-oldest-actor-to-win-an-oscar-dies-aged-91
Definitely agree that it should be stopped. It hasn't even proved to be very effective for individuals anyway.
NEW THREAD
https://youtu.be/3DcWJrzK0wU?t=2305
[referring to the English troops]
Duchess of Richmond: They're the salt of England, Arthur.
Duke of Wellington: Scum. Nothing but beggars and scoundrels, all of them. Gin is the spirit of their patriotism.
Duchess of Richmond: Yet you expect them to die for you?
Duke of Wellington: Um-hum.
Duchess of Richmond: Out of duty?
Duke of Wellington: Um-hum.
Duchess of Richmond: I doubt if even Bonaparte could draw men to him by duty.
Duke of Wellington: Oh, Boney's not a gentleman.
Duchess of Richmond: Arthur! What an Englishman you are.
Duke of Wellington: On the field of battle his hat is worth fifty thousand men; but he is not a gentleman.
1. They have genuine concerns (for reasons that we may not be wholly privy to) about supply down the line, and are therefore managing expectations
2. They've finally learned to under-promise and over-deliver, resulting in an easy political victory
Blackrock is good - I like Vanguard but that’s cos I’m an old softie
Sadly I’m the Prince Harry of our family - have more fun with my beautiful Californian wife - but my brother minds the shop