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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    glw said:

    Sandpit said:

    They seem to trust the bot more than the intern in marketing or customer service who usuallly does this sort of job.

    For certain types of query a bot will beat a person any day. For example, if someone is asking about flight times, terminals, gates, baggage allowances, for those sort of things the bot is best. It would be nuts to have a person responding to such queries when a bot is going to be near perfect and very fast to respond. Of course you have to have to be able to deal with the 1 in 10 queries that doesn't fit a pigeon hole, and you had better have someone who really knows what's what for the 1 in a million when getting it wrong could spell real trouble.
    Just have to feel for the plebs that don't have their own dedicated customer support line.
  • What vaccines are they using? The Pseudo-science one or the proper one?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    What vaccines are they using? The Pseudo-science one or the proper one?
    Both, they get their vaccines as part of UK distribution to it's dependent territories.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    MaxPB said:

    What vaccines are they using? The Pseudo-science one or the proper one?
    Both, they get their vaccines as part of UK distribution to it's dependent territories.
    For a moment, I thought you were talking about France ...
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    White over-80s are almost twice as likely to have had the coronavirus vaccine than elderly black Britons, a report has found.

    The research comes amid fears that Covid-19 vaccine refusal rates are highest among black, Asian and ethnic minority (BAME) Britons.

    Figures showed that 48 per cent of black Britons, a total of 5,012, over-80 in England had their first dose by January 27, compared to 82 per cent, 650,664, of white elderly Britons.

    The data, collated by OpenSAFELY on behalf of NHS England, also revealed that 62 per cent of South Asian over-80s, 16,814, had received the Covid jab, followed by 59 per cent, 1,645, of elderly people of mixed ethnicity.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9227355/White-80s-TWICE-likely-jab-elderly-black-Britons-report-reveals.html

    There’s some huge differences between ethnic groups, really hope that they can be persuaded that vaccination is a good thing for everyone.

    I saw one video last week of MPs from various ethnic groups, all encouraging people to get jabbed, hopefully we can see more of the same.
    The vaccine passport thing will be err... interesting.

    Denying people flights would be one thing.

    What if the implementation is, say, time limited (changes every 3o seconds) QR codes on your smartphone. Simple bit of crypto work, really. So anyone can validate the you have had the vaccination (without getting any of your personal information), by checkin the QR code against the validating site. Trivial little app to write.

    So anyone can prove they had the vaccination and anyone can check it.

    Lovely.

    Then Sainsbury's says - no vaccination, no entry. The pub....
    They really can’t make it phone-based for the oldies, a huge number of them don’t have modern smartphones. Would losing your phone on holiday mean you couldn’t fly back?
    I travel to Africa a fair bit and my vaccination 'passport' is a yellow bit of card I pin to the back of my passport.
    No more than that please

    I and most of my friends have smartphones. Need them to talk to the grandchildren! And I suggest that those who travel abroad are among the more likely to have.
    Not in Africa, m8.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    At the rate some European countries will have completed R1 of vaccinations, forget what mutations will have come along with COVID, we will probably be on SARS 3.

    My Dad went from a slightly unexpected phone call in the morning to a jab at 5 yesterday. I think that would be inconcevable in France.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    One country that does need to up its game is NORTHERN IRELAND –– it holds up the Vaxometer every bloody day with its sluggish reporting :smiley:
  • RobD said:

    It sounds as though the French are finally getting their act together, which is very good news, even if it will slightly reduce our opportunity to gloat:

    https://twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1357690261833400322

    The age profile will be interesting, given the drug they have the biggest supply for they won't use on the old. Seems a tiny bit pointless.
    Yes, although they've got lots of healthcare workers to vaccinate in the first priority list, for whom they'll use AZ. They're undoubtedly well behind us, and supply is going to continue to be a serious problem for a while, but at least they are now beginning to ramp up more seriously. As that Twitter thread points out, they've got a vast network of very professional and well-organised pharmacies who will be able to deliver the AZ vaccine in large quantities if they can get enough supplies.

    Still a problem of public resistance, of course, but that's improving and I expect will improve further quite quickly.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited February 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Alistair said:

    Wife duly vaccinated. I think I erroneously said she was group 6 yesterday - total brain fart, she is group 4.

    My wife had her Pride of England AZ shot earlier this week. She was quite ill for about a day but is now up and about catching up on her Dura Ace bollocking backlog.
    I'm not liking all the "feel crook for 48 hours" reportage. Might not have it now. Big side benefit of that is I will accrue immense moral authority to argue for a global priority for the vaccine. People will have to sit up and listen.
    Unless the side effects of the vaccine are demonstrably as bad or worse than actually getting bad COVID (which they aren't), I really don't get that stance. For me, it seems to be a choice between a) feeling bad for a day or two, usually after the second does it seems, or b) continuing to run the risk of a small, but real chance, of contracting a debilitating or even fatal disease which can have life-altering long-term consequences. This seems a no-brainer to me.

    And yes, I know there have been a very, very few cases of people having severe allergic reactions to the vaccine. I don't know how that's being managed in the UK, but I understand here in the US you are encouraged to hang around the vaccination centre for fifteen minutes after the jab as that is the time-scale any severe allergic reaction will manifest itself in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609

    glw said:

    No shoes, no shirt, no jab (afaik), no masks, plenty of service and a pat on their shiny big heads.

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1357368509135810561?s=20

    Those might be automated replies. A lot of big companies use sentiment analysis for customer support functions. So if the BA Twitter bot sees a positive tweet it responds in order to make sure more people see it. Both of those accounts appear to be using services that support sentiment analysis. Of course automating this kind of stuff can backfire.
    Seems odd that an algorithm would sign themselves 'Anthony'..
    It's actually an acronym (Automated Networked Tweeting Helper Obsoleting Nation's Youth) :wink:
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:
    Time to invest in whoever holds the rights to Norman Wisdom's ouevre.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    Indeed but the maritime cooperation seems like a bigger indicator of where the government is focusing.
  • I wonder if its a coincidence that the two European countries with (uniquely) world class genomic sequencing capability also have the highest vaccine acceptance?

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2021/01/12/covid-19-willingness-be-vaccinated?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=vaccine_willingess_tracker_page


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    HYUFD said:
    I'm not sure you have much choice in China if the Party says you want a jab - you get a jab.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    Hospital admissions coming down quickly. Good news.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Just don't tell the EU - they'll be after our vaccines again.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    @MaxPB good to see you're on. Been super busy of late so not been following anything.

    But, after the to-ing and fro-ing of the Oxford report - is it actually the case the transmission rates are inhibited by the vaccine over and above lower viral loads on account of asymptomatic carriers?
  • More anecdotal jabbing data: parents-in-law and my Mum all in their early 70s, all live in Devon. 1 jabbed today, other 2 being jabbed Monday. Devon a bit slower than English average I think, due to being God's Waiting Room...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Stocky said:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    Hospital admissions coming down quickly. Good news.

    23.1% drop on the week. Huge sigh of relief from the NHS.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Should be down to deaths averaging in the high hundreds next week. Still grim, but less so than January.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    HYUFD said:
    I'm not sure you have much choice in China if the Party says you want a jab - you get a jab.
    Explains the 36% in Hong Kong. I think that number would shoot up if they were part of the British scheme rather than likely having whatever PRC China uses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited February 2021
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    She is, she is even more leftwing than Sanders.

    At a minimum she is a charismatic Rebecca Long Bailey or a female Clive Lewis
  • Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    Thoughts with Liam Fox at this difficult time. It sucks when your replacement shows how rubbish you were.
    To be fair he could have spent months laying all the technical groundwork for these deals.

    But politics isn't fair.

    Dream team of Sunak-Truss?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    Indeed but the maritime cooperation seems like a bigger indicator of where the government is focusing.
    Shouldn't hurt with the CP-TPP application either.

    We'll get distracted by the Easter let-up, only to find Liz has signed up not only the UK - but the whole damn Commonwealth too!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    It sounds as though the French are finally getting their act together, which is very good news, even if it will slightly reduce our opportunity to gloat:

    https://twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1357690261833400322

    I'm sure I recall that previously the target was lowered, so this increase may not be as big as it seems, though obviously quicker the better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Bad timing for them that the first big spike in cases and deaths came not long before they got the vaccine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    I wonder if its a coincidence that the two European countries with (uniquely) world class genomic sequencing capability also have the highest vaccine acceptance?

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2021/01/12/covid-19-willingness-be-vaccinated?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=vaccine_willingess_tracker_page


    Probably as I doubt even now most are aware of that point.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    Thoughts with Liam Fox at this difficult time. It sucks when your replacement shows how rubbish you were.
    To be fair he could have spent months laying all the technical groundwork for these deals.

    But politics isn't fair.

    Dream team of Sunak-Truss?
    Or Truss-Sunak?

    Can you imagine a third female leader of the Tory party before Labour gets one? The angst would probably keep the Guardian going for another year.

  • Worth reading the whole thread, but this is looking very good:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    HYUFD said:
    I'm not sure you have much choice in China if the Party says you want a jab - you get a jab.
    Not only that but if they say you are getting a vaccine you get one of them too.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    edited February 2021


    "Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.

    In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."


    I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!
  • HYUFD said:
    Can someone explain what she hopes to achieve with all this, other than ramming home the notion that Boris's deal is actually a bit shit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    Worth reading the whole thread, but this is looking very good:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528

    Can't wait for the same sort of analysis done in the UK.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    HYUFD said:
    If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    Thoughts with Liam Fox at this difficult time. It sucks when your replacement shows how rubbish you were.
    To be fair he could have spent months laying all the technical groundwork for these deals.

    But politics isn't fair.

    Dream team of Sunak-Truss?
    Busy Lizzy priced at 11.5 on Betfair for next Con leader, and a massive 28 for next PM.

    Shame there’s not a market on next CoE that I can find, she should be favourite for that one.
  • The political importance of this non-metropolitan south is likely to last. Because it has grown faster in population than most of the country in recent years, the current review of constituency boundaries, scheduled to conclude before the next election, is expected to give it another 13 Commons seats, and take away the same number from Wales and the north.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/05/labour-southern-england-red-wall-voters-keir-starmer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited February 2021

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
    She wants a 70% top rate of tax, she wants to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan, she also wants a UK style NHS for the US so you are wrong on that. She is also as woke as can be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/04/us-healthcare-costs-brits-reaction-nhs

    She is well to the left not only of Boris but also left of Starmer too
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
    She wants a 70% top rate of tax, she wants to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan, she also wants a UK style NHS for the US so you are wrong on that.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/04/us-healthcare-costs-brits-reaction-nhs

    She is well to the left not only of Boris but Starmer too
    She wants the Medicare For All option - Aka Berniecare - which is publicly funded and privately provided healthcare.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    felix said:



    "Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.

    In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."


    I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!

    I`m with you and this is so important that it may dwarf others. Right now I`m pleased we`ve left.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    She's certainly doing a great job of raising her profile among the faithful.
    In reality it will be civil servants doing all of the work but good she's letting them get on with it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    RobD said:

    Worth reading the whole thread, but this is looking very good:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528

    Can't wait for the same sort of analysis done in the UK.
    So far (will be updating today)

    image
    image
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Worth reading the whole thread, but this is looking very good:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528

    That’s awesome!
    Hopefully there will be some more data from UAE (which has some very weird demographics) and UK to back it up soon. People also mentioning Gibraltar, which is already up around 40% vaccinated (presumably of residents, they have a large daily migrant population over the border).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    Thoughts with Liam Fox at this difficult time. It sucks when your replacement shows how rubbish you were.
    To be fair he could have spent months laying all the technical groundwork for these deals.

    But politics isn't fair.

    Dream team of Sunak-Truss?
    Busy Lizzy priced at 11.5 on Betfair for next Con leader, and a massive 28 for next PM.

    Shame there’s not a market on next CoE that I can find, she should be favourite for that one.
    I`m on at 100/1 Truss for next PM - I see this as more of a trading bet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Stocky said:

    felix said:



    "Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.

    In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."


    I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!

    I`m with you and this is so important that it may dwarf others. Right now I`m pleased we`ve left.
    The lesson for the EU is that they need to go all the way and become the USE with a directly elected federal executive and legislature. No more backroom deals between the French and Germans. Let the people elect the politicians who run their country.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    RobD said:

    Worth reading the whole thread, but this is looking very good:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528

    Can't wait for the same sort of analysis done in the UK.
    So far (will be updating today)

    image
    image
    I wonder if you can try normalizing the peaks to compare the rate for the different cohorts?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Should be down to deaths averaging in the high hundreds next week. Still grim, but less so than January.

    I would like to see us coming back down to the large country European average of 300-500 per day by the end of next week. And then keep falling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited February 2021

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
    She wants a 70% top rate of tax, she wants to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan, she also wants a UK style NHS for the US so you are wrong on that.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/04/us-healthcare-costs-brits-reaction-nhs

    She is well to the left not only of Boris but Starmer too
    She wants the Medicare For All option - Aka Berniecare - which is publicly funded and privately provided healthcare.
    It is fully state funded, taxpayer financed healthcare. There are plenty of private providers doing NHS funded work now and the UK government wants to move further in that direction.

    AOC after a few years of her 70% income tax would ram through state control and provision of hospitals too
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    DavidL said:

    Should be down to deaths averaging in the high hundreds next week. Still grim, but less so than January.

    I would like to see us coming back down to the large country European average of 300-500 per day by the end of next week. And then keep falling.
    Sub-700 would be a very good result I think.
  • Deaths starting to trend down significantly:



    Nearly 800,000 tests/day none too shabby either.....
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    Cases down 35% week on week - matching ZOE with a 4 day lull in decline followed by resumption of big falls
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Worth reading the whole thread, but this is looking very good:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528

    Can't wait for the same sort of analysis done in the UK.
    So far (will be updating today)

    image
    image
    I wonder if you can try normalizing the peaks to compare the rate for the different cohorts?
    The graphs are scaled to the size of each group, so that we are looking at cases/admissions per x percent of each group...
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
    With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    I think the England hospital data has an error in unless there are an extra 25k patients in hospital from the day before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    SW showing the way..... I thought we were supposed to be lagging?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    MaxPB said:

    I think the England hospital data has an error in unless there are an extra 25k patients in hospital from the day before.

    Ha, yes, divide by 2 and you get a 1000 decline matching recent days
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.

    Oh dear.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    New cases decline is accelerating again. Good to see.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
    Thoughts with Liam Fox at this difficult time. It sucks when your replacement shows how rubbish you were.
    To be fair he could have spent months laying all the technical groundwork for these deals.

    But politics isn't fair.

    Dream team of Sunak-Truss?
    That would be a tricky combo for Labour to attack.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited February 2021
    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
    With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
    You're right. Apologies.

    I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
    It is possible if there is a hung parliament in 2024 the DUP could now back Labour rather than the Tories if Starmer promises a softer Brexit deal than Boris for the whole UK to largely remove the border in the Irish Sea.

    Hence the Tories probably have to win a majority again to be re elected
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    New cases decline is accelerating again. Good to see.

    Yes I think the England data looks very good, we're reaching the end of anothr halving cycle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.

    Oh dear.

    Max did you see my question upthread?

    Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited February 2021
    maaarsh said:

    Cases down 35% week on week - matching ZOE with a 4 day lull in decline followed by resumption of big falls

    The cases reported on a Friday have since the beginning of the year been the highest. A decline from Saturday to Tuesday (reporting date) then follows. Wednesday, Thursday and then Friday have modest increases.

    Therefore if the pattern holds then we should see several days of good declines ahead. I think we will go under 12K cases on Tuesday and possibly close in on 11K. The following week unless something dramatic happens will be under 10K.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.

    Oh dear.

    Max did you see my question upthread?

    Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
    Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
    With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
    You're right. Apologies.

    I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
    Fair play.

    Btw, I agree completely. I dunno what the DUP were thinking re:May’s deal. They’re seriously crap at politics
  • HYUFD said:
    Can someone explain what she hopes to achieve with all this, other than ramming home the notion that Boris's deal is actually a bit shit.
    I would agree with you if UVDL had not made such a catastrophic error in the way the EU dealt with the vaccine issue and A16

    She has open the door wide open and Foster has just walked through it

    I expect this issue will be fudged at all levels for an indefinite period, as there isn't a practical solution otherwise it would have been found already
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573
    AlistairM said:

    maaarsh said:

    Cases down 35% week on week - matching ZOE with a 4 day lull in decline followed by resumption of big falls

    The cases reported on a Friday have since the beginning of the year been the highest before a Saturday to Tuesday (reporting date) decline. Wednesday, Thursday and then Friday have modest increases.

    Therefore if the pattern holds then we should see several days of good declines ahead. I think we will go under 12K cases on Tuesday and possibly close in on 11K. The following week unless something dramatic happens will be under 10K.
    I'm looking at the week on week movement to strip out day of week impacts. We had extremely strong falls last week but the first 4 days of Feb were pretty weak. Pleasingly this exactly matches what ZOE suggested with a 5 day lag, and ZOE suggests we're set for continued strong declines in the next few days and a halving time for cases of under a fortnight.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.

    Oh dear.

    Max did you see my question upthread?

    Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
    Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
    Thanks. And interesting (small numbers).

    I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.

    If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
  • ping said:

    DavidL said:

    ping said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
    With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
    You're right. Apologies.

    I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
    Fair play.

    Btw, I agree completely. I dunno what the DUP were thinking re:May’s deal. They’re seriously crap at politics
    Any polling on Northern Irish Unionist emerging views on the continuation of the protocol in 2024? We landed on a simple majority vote in the assembly didn't we? Not impossible to imagine a unionist majority isn’t he assembly saying “no”. Or possibly “NEVER NEVER NEVER”.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    It's hard to see how she might be given that Corbyn's politics are forever stuck in the 1970s.
    But I think it's probably fair to say that HYUFD doesn't understand US politics very well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    edited February 2021

    HYUFD said:
    Can someone explain what she hopes to achieve with all this, other than ramming home the notion that Boris's deal is actually a bit shit.
    Presumably to try to shore up the unionist vote behind her?
  • SW showing the way..... I thought we were supposed to be lagging?
    Probably referring to my comment earlier. What I meant was that the SW is lagging in terms of percentages of 70-75 year olds vaccinated, which is true, but of course we have so many old people down here that at the same time it can also be true that we are in the lead in terms of percentage of all adults...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    She is, she is even more leftwing than Sanders.

    At a minimum she is a charismatic Rebecca Long Bailey or a female Clive Lewis
    But you're ignoring the quality gap. Was Bill Clinton the US Alan Milburn? No he wasn't.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.

    Oh dear.

    Max did you see my question upthread?

    Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
    Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
    Thanks. And interesting (small numbers).

    I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.

    If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
    The vaccine passport issue is about reducing indoor risk to eliminate social distancing and putting social pressure on refuseniks so our herd immunity isn't undermined. Ultimately we all have a responsibility to each other to be vaccinated and if people who refuse are limited in what they can do by private businesses then I think it's fair.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017

    Where the hell are Right Said Tw@ts flying to? Who is booking washed up 90s bands for live shows at the moment? The likes of the Canary Islands isn't open.

    They live in Spain.

    Pro-Brexit too.

    Aren't they jolly?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    You find the oddest things on COVID Twitter...
    https://twitter.com/compoundchem/status/1357657742484324353
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    The Spanish vaccine supplies are on the way.

    ><img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/6f/jcr0jgqu95z0.png" al
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Oh good, they're fixing the England data.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
    AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
    It's hard to see how she might be given that Corbyn's politics are forever stuck in the 1970s.
    But I think it's probably fair to say that HYUFD doesn't understand US politics very well.
    On what grounds? AOC is far left in US terms and certainly at least left in UK terms too
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    TimT said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.

    Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.

    My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.

    Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.

    AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
    She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
    No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.

    If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
    AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.

    If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
    I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
    Super sharp and savvy. I have never heard her in a debate she doesn't win.
    She lives in my daughter's apartment building and is very normal and friendly when you share an elevator.
    That's good to hear. I like a lot and would have been disillusioned to hear she was unpleasant in private.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.

    Oh dear.

    Max did you see my question upthread?

    Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
    Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
    Thanks. And interesting (small numbers).

    I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.

    If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
    The vaccine passport issue is about reducing indoor risk to eliminate social distancing and putting social pressure on refuseniks so our herd immunity isn't undermined. Ultimately we all have a responsibility to each other to be vaccinated and if people who refuse are limited in what they can do by private businesses then I think it's fair.
    Yes I get that. If people aren't vaccinated then they may well get ill themselves and then be a burden on the NHS.

    If they get ill and are asymptomatic, however, then if they pose the same risk as someone who hasn't been vaccinated there is no big issue in getting vaccinated for the end of restrictions. Just that everyone (may) get it just that no one goes to hospital.

    I will be getting vaccinated be clear. But it is the logic and the narrative around vaccinations that interests me. They are being talked about as though they stop onwards transmission hence my question to you.

    If, say, someone with the virus goes to Greece, it doesn't matter (as far as we know for sure) whether they have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission risk. So vaccine passports are moot.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    edited February 2021
    Vaxometer

    Target 15,000,000
    Thru 10,971,047
    Required 4,028,953

    Days to target 10
    Yesterday's return 480,560
    Required rate 402,895 (↓ from 409,956 yesterday)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Can someone explain what she hopes to achieve with all this, other than ramming home the notion that Boris's deal is actually a bit shit.
    Presumably to try to shore up the unionist vote behind her?
    Yes, the DUP have been losing Unionist votes to Traditional Unionist Voice for not taking a hard enough line against the NI Protocol
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    This is quite impressive. Seems a long time ago the government was working towards a 100K tests/day target.


  • felix said:



    "Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.

    In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."


    I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!

    It is a good story for Leave, but it really is the only one, which ensures Brexit apologists will harp on about it for years and years. It is a bit like when Scotland occasionally win (or even draw) at rugby or football, we all have to suffer their continuous crowing, but it doesn't change the fact that their team is actually crap.
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