They seem to trust the bot more than the intern in marketing or customer service who usuallly does this sort of job.
For certain types of query a bot will beat a person any day. For example, if someone is asking about flight times, terminals, gates, baggage allowances, for those sort of things the bot is best. It would be nuts to have a person responding to such queries when a bot is going to be near perfect and very fast to respond. Of course you have to have to be able to deal with the 1 in 10 queries that doesn't fit a pigeon hole, and you had better have someone who really knows what's what for the 1 in a million when getting it wrong could spell real trouble.
Just have to feel for the plebs that don't have their own dedicated customer support line.
White over-80s are almost twice as likely to have had the coronavirus vaccine than elderly black Britons, a report has found.
The research comes amid fears that Covid-19 vaccine refusal rates are highest among black, Asian and ethnic minority (BAME) Britons.
Figures showed that 48 per cent of black Britons, a total of 5,012, over-80 in England had their first dose by January 27, compared to 82 per cent, 650,664, of white elderly Britons.
The data, collated by OpenSAFELY on behalf of NHS England, also revealed that 62 per cent of South Asian over-80s, 16,814, had received the Covid jab, followed by 59 per cent, 1,645, of elderly people of mixed ethnicity.
There’s some huge differences between ethnic groups, really hope that they can be persuaded that vaccination is a good thing for everyone.
I saw one video last week of MPs from various ethnic groups, all encouraging people to get jabbed, hopefully we can see more of the same.
The vaccine passport thing will be err... interesting.
Denying people flights would be one thing.
What if the implementation is, say, time limited (changes every 3o seconds) QR codes on your smartphone. Simple bit of crypto work, really. So anyone can validate the you have had the vaccination (without getting any of your personal information), by checkin the QR code against the validating site. Trivial little app to write.
So anyone can prove they had the vaccination and anyone can check it.
Lovely.
Then Sainsbury's says - no vaccination, no entry. The pub....
They really can’t make it phone-based for the oldies, a huge number of them don’t have modern smartphones. Would losing your phone on holiday mean you couldn’t fly back?
I travel to Africa a fair bit and my vaccination 'passport' is a yellow bit of card I pin to the back of my passport. No more than that please
I and most of my friends have smartphones. Need them to talk to the grandchildren! And I suggest that those who travel abroad are among the more likely to have.
At the rate some European countries will have completed R1 of vaccinations, forget what mutations will have come along with COVID, we will probably be on SARS 3.
My Dad went from a slightly unexpected phone call in the morning to a jab at 5 yesterday. I think that would be inconcevable in France.
It sounds as though the French are finally getting their act together, which is very good news, even if it will slightly reduce our opportunity to gloat:
The age profile will be interesting, given the drug they have the biggest supply for they won't use on the old. Seems a tiny bit pointless.
Yes, although they've got lots of healthcare workers to vaccinate in the first priority list, for whom they'll use AZ. They're undoubtedly well behind us, and supply is going to continue to be a serious problem for a while, but at least they are now beginning to ramp up more seriously. As that Twitter thread points out, they've got a vast network of very professional and well-organised pharmacies who will be able to deliver the AZ vaccine in large quantities if they can get enough supplies.
Still a problem of public resistance, of course, but that's improving and I expect will improve further quite quickly.
Wife duly vaccinated. I think I erroneously said she was group 6 yesterday - total brain fart, she is group 4.
My wife had her Pride of England AZ shot earlier this week. She was quite ill for about a day but is now up and about catching up on her Dura Ace bollocking backlog.
I'm not liking all the "feel crook for 48 hours" reportage. Might not have it now. Big side benefit of that is I will accrue immense moral authority to argue for a global priority for the vaccine. People will have to sit up and listen.
Unless the side effects of the vaccine are demonstrably as bad or worse than actually getting bad COVID (which they aren't), I really don't get that stance. For me, it seems to be a choice between a) feeling bad for a day or two, usually after the second does it seems, or b) continuing to run the risk of a small, but real chance, of contracting a debilitating or even fatal disease which can have life-altering long-term consequences. This seems a no-brainer to me.
And yes, I know there have been a very, very few cases of people having severe allergic reactions to the vaccine. I don't know how that's being managed in the UK, but I understand here in the US you are encouraged to hang around the vaccination centre for fifteen minutes after the jab as that is the time-scale any severe allergic reaction will manifest itself in.
Those might be automated replies. A lot of big companies use sentiment analysis for customer support functions. So if the BA Twitter bot sees a positive tweet it responds in order to make sure more people see it. Both of those accounts appear to be using services that support sentiment analysis. Of course automating this kind of stuff can backfire.
Seems odd that an algorithm would sign themselves 'Anthony'..
I wonder if its a coincidence that the two European countries with (uniquely) world class genomic sequencing capability also have the highest vaccine acceptance?
@MaxPB good to see you're on. Been super busy of late so not been following anything.
But, after the to-ing and fro-ing of the Oxford report - is it actually the case the transmission rates are inhibited by the vaccine over and above lower viral loads on account of asymptomatic carriers?
More anecdotal jabbing data: parents-in-law and my Mum all in their early 70s, all live in Devon. 1 jabbed today, other 2 being jabbed Monday. Devon a bit slower than English average I think, due to being God's Waiting Room...
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
I'm not sure you have much choice in China if the Party says you want a jab - you get a jab.
Explains the 36% in Hong Kong. I think that number would shoot up if they were part of the British scheme rather than likely having whatever PRC China uses.
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
She is, she is even more leftwing than Sanders.
At a minimum she is a charismatic Rebecca Long Bailey or a female Clive Lewis
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
It sounds as though the French are finally getting their act together, which is very good news, even if it will slightly reduce our opportunity to gloat:
I wonder if its a coincidence that the two European countries with (uniquely) world class genomic sequencing capability also have the highest vaccine acceptance?
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
She is, she is even more leftwing than Sanders.
At a minimum she is a charismatic Rebecca Long Bailey or a female Clive Lewis
How quickly we forget Laura Pidcock, and how glad all of us except one are at that fact.
"Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.
In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."
I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!
The political importance of this non-metropolitan south is likely to last. Because it has grown faster in population than most of the country in recent years, the current review of constituency boundaries, scheduled to conclude before the next election, is expected to give it another 13 Commons seats, and take away the same number from Wales and the north.
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
She wants a 70% top rate of tax, she wants to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan, she also wants a UK style NHS for the US so you are wrong on that. She is also as woke as can be.
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
She wants a 70% top rate of tax, she wants to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan, she also wants a UK style NHS for the US so you are wrong on that.
"Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.
In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."
I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!
I`m with you and this is so important that it may dwarf others. Right now I`m pleased we`ve left.
And another one! She’s been a busy little bee for the past few months.
She's certainly doing a great job of raising her profile among the faithful. In reality it will be civil servants doing all of the work but good she's letting them get on with it.
That’s awesome! Hopefully there will be some more data from UAE (which has some very weird demographics) and UK to back it up soon. People also mentioning Gibraltar, which is already up around 40% vaccinated (presumably of residents, they have a large daily migrant population over the border).
"Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.
In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."
I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!
I`m with you and this is so important that it may dwarf others. Right now I`m pleased we`ve left.
The lesson for the EU is that they need to go all the way and become the USE with a directly elected federal executive and legislature. No more backroom deals between the French and Germans. Let the people elect the politicians who run their country.
"Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.
In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."
I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!
I`m with you and this is so important that it may dwarf others. Right now I`m pleased we`ve left.
The lesson for the EU is that they need to go all the way and become the USE with a directly elected federal executive and legislature. No more backroom deals between the French and Germans. Let the people elect the politicians who run their country.
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
She is to the right of the UK government on healthcare....
She wants a 70% top rate of tax, she wants to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan, she also wants a UK style NHS for the US so you are wrong on that.
She is well to the left not only of Boris but Starmer too
She wants the Medicare For All option - Aka Berniecare - which is publicly funded and privately provided healthcare.
It is fully state funded, taxpayer financed healthcare. There are plenty of private providers doing NHS funded work now and the UK government wants to move further in that direction.
AOC after a few years of her 70% income tax would ram through state control and provision of hospitals too
If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
You're right. Apologies.
I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
You're right. Apologies.
I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
It is possible if there is a hung parliament in 2024 the DUP could now back Labour rather than the Tories if Starmer promises a softer Brexit deal than Boris for the whole UK to largely remove the border in the Irish Sea.
Hence the Tories probably have to win a majority again to be re elected
Cases down 35% week on week - matching ZOE with a 4 day lull in decline followed by resumption of big falls
The cases reported on a Friday have since the beginning of the year been the highest. A decline from Saturday to Tuesday (reporting date) then follows. Wednesday, Thursday and then Friday have modest increases.
Therefore if the pattern holds then we should see several days of good declines ahead. I think we will go under 12K cases on Tuesday and possibly close in on 11K. The following week unless something dramatic happens will be under 10K.
Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.
Oh dear.
Max did you see my question upthread?
Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
You're right. Apologies.
I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
Fair play.
Btw, I agree completely. I dunno what the DUP were thinking re:May’s deal. They’re seriously crap at politics
Can someone explain what she hopes to achieve with all this, other than ramming home the notion that Boris's deal is actually a bit shit.
I would agree with you if UVDL had not made such a catastrophic error in the way the EU dealt with the vaccine issue and A16
She has open the door wide open and Foster has just walked through it
I expect this issue will be fudged at all levels for an indefinite period, as there isn't a practical solution otherwise it would have been found already
Cases down 35% week on week - matching ZOE with a 4 day lull in decline followed by resumption of big falls
The cases reported on a Friday have since the beginning of the year been the highest before a Saturday to Tuesday (reporting date) decline. Wednesday, Thursday and then Friday have modest increases.
Therefore if the pattern holds then we should see several days of good declines ahead. I think we will go under 12K cases on Tuesday and possibly close in on 11K. The following week unless something dramatic happens will be under 10K.
I'm looking at the week on week movement to strip out day of week impacts. We had extremely strong falls last week but the first 4 days of Feb were pretty weak. Pleasingly this exactly matches what ZOE suggested with a 5 day lag, and ZOE suggests we're set for continued strong declines in the next few days and a halving time for cases of under a fortnight.
Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.
Oh dear.
Max did you see my question upthread?
Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
Thanks. And interesting (small numbers).
I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.
If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
If only the silly bitch had got her MPs to vote for May's deal, eh? Hearts of stone come to mind.
With respect, that’s pretty abusive.
You're right. Apologies.
I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
Fair play.
Btw, I agree completely. I dunno what the DUP were thinking re:May’s deal. They’re seriously crap at politics
Any polling on Northern Irish Unionist emerging views on the continuation of the protocol in 2024? We landed on a simple majority vote in the assembly didn't we? Not impossible to imagine a unionist majority isn’t he assembly saying “no”. Or possibly “NEVER NEVER NEVER”.
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
It's hard to see how she might be given that Corbyn's politics are forever stuck in the 1970s. But I think it's probably fair to say that HYUFD doesn't understand US politics very well.
SW showing the way..... I thought we were supposed to be lagging?
Probably referring to my comment earlier. What I meant was that the SW is lagging in terms of percentages of 70-75 year olds vaccinated, which is true, but of course we have so many old people down here that at the same time it can also be true that we are in the lead in terms of percentage of all adults...
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
She is, she is even more leftwing than Sanders.
At a minimum she is a charismatic Rebecca Long Bailey or a female Clive Lewis
But you're ignoring the quality gap. Was Bill Clinton the US Alan Milburn? No he wasn't.
Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.
Oh dear.
Max did you see my question upthread?
Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
Thanks. And interesting (small numbers).
I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.
If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
The vaccine passport issue is about reducing indoor risk to eliminate social distancing and putting social pressure on refuseniks so our herd immunity isn't undermined. Ultimately we all have a responsibility to each other to be vaccinated and if people who refuse are limited in what they can do by private businesses then I think it's fair.
Where the hell are Right Said Tw@ts flying to? Who is booking washed up 90s bands for live shows at the moment? The likes of the Canary Islands isn't open.
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
She is the US Corbyn, just a more telegenic one
AOC is NOT the US Corbyn! C'mon HYUFD.
It's hard to see how she might be given that Corbyn's politics are forever stuck in the 1970s. But I think it's probably fair to say that HYUFD doesn't understand US politics very well.
On what grounds? AOC is far left in US terms and certainly at least left in UK terms too
On topic (why do I have to say that): I don't think Biden will run again, although I think it's a bit more than the 20-25% chance currently available. But if he doesn't, then I think Harris almost certainly will - why wouldn't she? And then I don't see how she can be stopped by a fellow member of her administration.
Under those circumstances, Buttigieg has two basic options. He can say she was crap as VP - in which case why did he happily serve alongside her for four years as Transport Sec? Or he can go after her previous record, which is unlikely to stick. Attacking her personality and character after four years in the White House is unlikely to be effective, in my view. And Buttigieg has absolutely no need to challenge in 2024, as he will have loads more chances down the line and plenty of space to build up his CV before he does. So, no deal at 5%.
My guess is that the only likely challenge to Harris (if Biden doesn't stand again) comes from the Sanders wing of the party, claiming that Biden wasn't radical enough and Harris won't be either. Warren might fancy one last shot - I think it will be very difficult for anyone but another woman to beat Harris as the optics would be awful.
Edit: I should add: unless there's an economic (or other) catastrophe between now and then. In which case all bets are off, but most likely it takes Buttigieg out the reckoning just as much as anyone else.
AOC would challenge Harris and Buttigieg if Biden did not run again in 2024 certainly
She is certainly the obvious one right now. And she has a huge and dedicated following, at least on social media. They're probably concentrated in the wrong places to really help her win the nomination. I doubt she'd make much headway in the Southern states that refused to vote for anyone but Biden this time around, and I cannot see the wider Democrat party being dumb enough to pick her.
No but AOC would pick up the torch of the Democratic left from Sanders.
If she won the nomination and Pence won the GOP nomination, Pence would arguably then be the moderate candidate against her.
AOC won't stand in 2024 - she would only just be 35.
If and when AOC stands it will be far later 2032 or 2036.
I agree. And I expect her to be President by one of those years - she's genuinely charismatic and appealing. And by 2032 or 2036, you can bet that she will have moderated some of what many perceive as her current excesses; she is very ambitious.
Super sharp and savvy. I have never heard her in a debate she doesn't win.
She lives in my daughter's apartment building and is very normal and friendly when you share an elevator.
That's good to hear. I like a lot and would have been disillusioned to hear she was unpleasant in private.
Yes, I think the England hospital data has been entered twice and all the data has been doubled.
Oh dear.
Max did you see my question upthread?
Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
Hey, just saw it. So far it's not clear to me that it definitely does. The numbers are far too small to tell. We will get real world data on this fairly soon so not long to wait now.
Thanks. And interesting (small numbers).
I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.
If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
The vaccine passport issue is about reducing indoor risk to eliminate social distancing and putting social pressure on refuseniks so our herd immunity isn't undermined. Ultimately we all have a responsibility to each other to be vaccinated and if people who refuse are limited in what they can do by private businesses then I think it's fair.
Yes I get that. If people aren't vaccinated then they may well get ill themselves and then be a burden on the NHS.
If they get ill and are asymptomatic, however, then if they pose the same risk as someone who hasn't been vaccinated there is no big issue in getting vaccinated for the end of restrictions. Just that everyone (may) get it just that no one goes to hospital.
I will be getting vaccinated be clear. But it is the logic and the narrative around vaccinations that interests me. They are being talked about as though they stop onwards transmission hence my question to you.
If, say, someone with the virus goes to Greece, it doesn't matter (as far as we know for sure) whether they have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission risk. So vaccine passports are moot.
"Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.
In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."
I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!
It is a good story for Leave, but it really is the only one, which ensures Brexit apologists will harp on about it for years and years. It is a bit like when Scotland occasionally win (or even draw) at rugby or football, we all have to suffer their continuous crowing, but it doesn't change the fact that their team is actually crap.
Comments
Still a problem of public resistance, of course, but that's improving and I expect will improve further quite quickly.
And yes, I know there have been a very, very few cases of people having severe allergic reactions to the vaccine. I don't know how that's being managed in the UK, but I understand here in the US you are encouraged to hang around the vaccination centre for fifteen minutes after the jab as that is the time-scale any severe allergic reaction will manifest itself in.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2021/01/12/covid-19-willingness-be-vaccinated?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=vaccine_willingess_tracker_page
Hospital admissions coming down quickly. Good news.
But, after the to-ing and fro-ing of the Oxford report - is it actually the case the transmission rates are inhibited by the vaccine over and above lower viral loads on account of asymptomatic carriers?
At a minimum she is a charismatic Rebecca Long Bailey or a female Clive Lewis
https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1357709878974963718?s=20
But politics isn't fair.
Dream team of Sunak-Truss?
We'll get distracted by the Easter let-up, only to find Liz has signed up not only the UK - but the whole damn Commonwealth too!
Can you imagine a third female leader of the Tory party before Labour gets one? The angst would probably keep the Guardian going for another year.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1357715616053014528
"Britain outside the EU was able to operate as a “speedboat” in securing coronavirus vaccines, the European Commission president admitted today.
In an acknowledgement of Europe’s slow pace of vaccine rollout, Ursula von der Leyen said that operating on its own allowed the UK to move more nimbly to secure supplies."
I voted Remain and 5 years after Brexit finally I see the best argument yet for Leave! Go Ursula go!
Shame there’s not a market on next CoE that I can find, she should be favourite for that one.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/05/labour-southern-england-red-wall-voters-keir-starmer
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/04/us-healthcare-costs-brits-reaction-nhs
She is well to the left not only of Boris but also left of Starmer too
In reality it will be civil servants doing all of the work but good she's letting them get on with it.
Hopefully there will be some more data from UAE (which has some very weird demographics) and UK to back it up soon. People also mentioning Gibraltar, which is already up around 40% vaccinated (presumably of residents, they have a large daily migrant population over the border).
AOC after a few years of her 70% income tax would ram through state control and provision of hospitals too
Nearly 800,000 tests/day none too shabby either.....
I still wish we had got May's deal rather than the current mess, however. And we could have done. The DUP really shot not just themselves but the UK in both feet.
Oh dear.
Hence the Tories probably have to win a majority again to be re elected
Is it the case as per the Oxford study that the AZN vaccine inhibits transmission? I read a 54% headline but then heard two thirds bandied around?
Therefore if the pattern holds then we should see several days of good declines ahead. I think we will go under 12K cases on Tuesday and possibly close in on 11K. The following week unless something dramatic happens will be under 10K.
Btw, I agree completely. I dunno what the DUP were thinking re:May’s deal. They’re seriously crap at politics
She has open the door wide open and Foster has just walked through it
I expect this issue will be fudged at all levels for an indefinite period, as there isn't a practical solution otherwise it would have been found already
I am just interested in the vaccine passport issue. If people will need them I'm not sure I know the difference between someone with the virus who has been jabbed and is asymptomatic and someone with the virus who hasn't been jabbed and is asymptomatic.
If people are demanding vaccine passports I'm wondering what the difference in risk is and that a test is perhaps a better bet in either case.
But I think it's probably fair to say that HYUFD doesn't understand US politics very well.
Pro-Brexit too.
Aren't they jolly?
https://twitter.com/compoundchem/status/1357657742484324353
The Spanish vaccine supplies are on the way.
><img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/6f/jcr0jgqu95z0.png" al
If they get ill and are asymptomatic, however, then if they pose the same risk as someone who hasn't been vaccinated there is no big issue in getting vaccinated for the end of restrictions. Just that everyone (may) get it just that no one goes to hospital.
I will be getting vaccinated be clear. But it is the logic and the narrative around vaccinations that interests me. They are being talked about as though they stop onwards transmission hence my question to you.
If, say, someone with the virus goes to Greece, it doesn't matter (as far as we know for sure) whether they have been vaccinated or not in terms of transmission risk. So vaccine passports are moot.
Target 15,000,000
Thru 10,971,047
Required 4,028,953
Days to target 10
Yesterday's return 480,560
Required rate 402,895 (↓ from 409,956 yesterday)