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Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,020

    Strange though it may seem as a Brexiteer, I do feel a little bit of sympathy for the Commission right now. Boris has had a large number of U-turns in the last year or so but most of them have been so rapid that they fall into the category of no harm done. This lack of vaccines situation will run and run.

    Robert Smithson thinks the delay will only cost them 2 months but that has a huge impact. We know the new variant is spreading on the continent and Spain and Portugal in particular are really bad now. And there is the economic cost as well - if we can start opening up our economy in April while Europe is in lockdown.

    What makes it so much worse for the Commission is:

    1) The Spahn letter - Without this they could say they tried their best but weren't successful
    2) The fact that Brexit Britain is doing so well - if it was Norway or Switzerland there wouldn't be the same edge to it.

    While Eurocrats don't normally resign my view is that someone will have to go. Maybe Kyriakides will be pushed under the bus to save Ursula. It is worth remembering that the parliament were not keen on VDL as they wanted the Spitzenkandidat system to continue

    I don't feel any sympathy for Macron or the Germans. They must know that we will likely get real world evidence in the next month or so for AZ. They should have said they will hang on for this. Without AZ, how exactly do they plan to vaccinate all their over 65s in good time?

    At the moment we have the 3rd worst deaths per capita in Europe (after Belgium and Slovenia). I can't help but feel that with the anti-vaxxers that France will end up top of the pile in 6 months or so.

    I'm absolutely delighted that those responsible have done so well on the vaccine front and long may it continue.

    The vaccination programme though is a means to an end not an end in itself. The objective being to cut deaths and reboot the economy. When the dust settles we will be able to see which countries had the worst death rates and which country's economy fared worse. I hope the UK is not near the top of those lists but I honestly wouldn't bet on it right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    DavidL said:

    I am genuinely sorry to hear that. The delay in vaccination means more restrictions, more economic damage and more deaths. I would not wish it on anyone. The good news is that with the number of different vaccines now approved we will surely be awash with them by the middle of the year but that delay comes at a price.
    Yes - not as big a cost if the latest wave had begun sooner, but a cost nonetheless. Thank goodness there are so many vaccines which have worked so effectively, just imagine if more had fallen by the wayside.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    DavidL said:

    Blue skies? Lucky Ayrshire. We are getting snow showers again and had another 2-3 inches overnight.

    The UK's standing as a political concept seems to me much enhanced by recent developments. It will be interesting to see if this is reflected in the polling.
    Cold for sure here but extremely pleasant. Have to say some real snow would be nice, we had a small fall early last week but as near coast the gulf stream means we don't get much snow here nowadays.
    Think of much more import are the political and legal machinations unfolding, as more and more gets out it is hard to see Murrel towers surviving unless she goes full pelt on independence. The self interest groups, crazy bills they are promoting and the chicanery are unbelievable.
    The unholy alliance with UK civil service, the Crown etc will ensure popcorn sales are massive. Murray case being thrown out will be interesting and await the Keating's case result with interest , having been one of the 10,000 crowd funders. Who would have thought that I would be enriching lawyers.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    FF43 said:

    Fair point on Astrazeneca, although the EU including Germany did invest substantially in the Pfizer drug and that vaccine continues for the moment at least to be supplied to the UK
    The EU investment was in Biontech and while the UK was in the EU so UKs money too.
  • FF43 said:

    Fair point on Astrazeneca, although the EU including Germany did invest substantially in the Pfizer drug and that vaccine continues for the moment at least to be supplied to the UK
    Again because we put a contract in place and got the drug approved well before the EU did.

    The UK signed a contract with Pfizer on July 20th 2020. They approved the vaccine for use on 2nd December 2020
    The EU signed a contract with Pfizer on November 11th and approved the vaccine for use on 21st December.

    The EU has dragged its feet over this at every stage of the process with every vaccine company. They have failed to invest properly and now scream that they are not head of the queue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    Carnyx said:


    Popped back in at coffee time and oh dear, the arguiment is still running.

    FWIW - I really do not think Malcy is anti-English. He's anti-the idea that some English have that they should dominate Scots over such things as referenda. But the English bit is incidental to that. That is a crucial difference. He woiuld be just the same if it were blue aliens with pink spots from Xlephier Prime dominating the UK asnd refusing indyref "just because they said so".

    I'm reminded that back in - I think - November 2013, in the arguments in the runup to indyref 1 the Tories put out a coordinated assertion in the media that it was inherently anti-English and racist to criticise Tory policies. This surprised me a lot which is why I (sort of) remember the date. What next surprised me almost as much was how very, very quickly that attack line was shut down, I can only conjecture because the Tories themselves realised it was so implausible. (Probably also because it self-identified them as a party inherently alien to Scotland, which was daft given the existence of the SCUP.)

    But words have meanings and have to be carefully handled - I've been careless on occasion and rightly pulled up for it by you at least once (IIRC). More generally: the comments on linguistic tells and so on earlier were interesting. I've been struck for some time now by the asymmetry of the, for want of a better word, banter on PB. Scots are always in tartan, and so on. And the Welsh do unspeakable things to sheep. But there isn't anything the other way back as such. Is it because there is no English identity, or is it too fragmented, or what?
    The Welsh? I always thought that was Aberdonians. I really hope that @RochdalePioneers realises what he is letting himself in for and what getting to know the neighbours might involve.

    More seriously, at least if you are not a sheep, I would suggest that that is a major part of the answer to your question. The English may see the Scots as an entity but we see ourselves as east coasters, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Highlanders, borderers etc. The concept of a single identity is always a lot easier from outside than from inside.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    edited January 2021
    Phil said:

    The UK burnt an awful lot of EU trust & goodwill during the Johnson Premiership for no good purpose.

    But I don’t think anyone expected the EU to turn round and put the Good Friday Agreement to the torch within a month of us finally leaving properly.
    It's like they saw the IM Bill nonsense and thought 'instead of just threatening to do something stupid, what if we actually did the stupid thing, then acted like we didn't?'
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    felix said:

    As you keep talking about my life choices so much without a clue as to my background why don't you shove another turnip right up where the sun doesn't shine like in the rest of Scotland and stop telling posters what they can and cannot post. Wherever they live.
    Away and get a life you numpty. Stick your life where the sun shines , as stated I have no interest in you other than you are always whining about the EU but choose to live there. If you are that stupid Jog on loser.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672
    RobD said:

    So have the EU accidentally triggered any more articles of various treaties this morning?

    Nah it's the weekend, everyone's flown back home.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    RobD said:

    So have the EU accidentally triggered any more articles of various treaties this morning?

    They did nothing accidentally of course. But at least they recognised they'd gone too far - but it will be very interesting if there is follow up on how it happened, so further 'oversights' can be avoided. I don't see how someone's name escapes being pinned on it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912

    I thought you wanted to live in the EU too? Indeed that's now one of the central arguments of the Scottish 'independence' movement. I suspect you might need an answer on the vaccine issue as if the unionists have any sense they will hammer you on it.
    Frank don't be a silly boy. Living in a member country of the EU does not mean you live in a fictional country called the EU. We have plenty of vaccines by the way , we have paid up front for them and have cast iron contracts. Toodlepip.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I see Malc still being a little ray of sunshine :smiley::smiley:

    What a burden it must be to carry a whole sack of chips on his shoulder.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707

    The EU money was spent on the EU plants. That was specified in the contracts. The UK government money was spent, surprisingly (not), on the plant(s) in the UK.
    Do you have a cite for investment money provided by EU to AZ?

    AFAICS the only monies were the APA, which had a fairly normal payment roughly on supply agreement with a proportion paid upfront for *doses*.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    kinabalu said:

    I was just thinking this and then Owen tweeted it. Great minds -
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1355298186831781888

    There are people I used to see every day that I haven't seen in 10 months. That should feel a lot weirder than it does, but we normalise to events ppretty darn quickly.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,020
    We are due to have our first jab and I have a genuine question which I hope Foxy or someone else who knows what they are talking about will respond to.

    I get that Macron and Germany might well be playing politics with the notion that the AZN vaccine has low effectiveness for the over 65s. It is also my understanding that in the UK we have taken the decision to use Pfizer for the over 65s and AZN for the rest. If this is the case then does it not indicate that their may be some concern about the effectiveness of AZN for those over 65.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    DavidL said:

    The Welsh? I always thought that was Aberdonians. I really hope that @RochdalePioneers realises what he is letting himself in for and what getting to know the neighbours might involve.

    More seriously, at least if you are not a sheep, I would suggest that that is a major part of the answer to your question. The English may see the Scots as an entity but we see ourselves as east coasters, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Highlanders, borderers etc. The concept of a single identity is always a lot easier from outside than from inside.
    Wonder if Rochdale has bought his wellies and got his length of string ready.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    OllyT said:

    We are due to have our first jab and I have a genuine question which I hope Foxy or someone else who knows what they are talking about will respond to.

    I get that Macron and Germany might well be playing politics with the notion that the AZN vaccine has low effectiveness for the over 65s. It is also my understanding that in the UK we have taken the decision to use Pfizer for the over 65s and AZN for the rest. If this is the case then does it not indicate that their may be some concern about the effectiveness of AZN for those over 65.

    The UK is using AZN at all ages.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    Floater said:

    I see Malc still being a little ray of sunshine :smiley::smiley:

    What a burden it must be to carry a whole sack of chips on his shoulder.

    salt and vinegar on those chips please.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672
    malcolmg said:

    Frank don't be a silly boy. Living in a member country of the EU does not mean you live in a fictional country called the EU. We have plenty of vaccines by the way , we have paid up front for them and have cast iron contracts. Toodlepip.
    Thanks to Kate Bingham and the UK government.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907

    You reposted Cicero's bullshit to calm things down?!
    The owner of this site described it as a great post so I thought it was worth seeing again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    OllyT said:

    I'm absolutely delighted that those responsible have done so well on the vaccine front and long may it continue.

    The vaccination programme though is a means to an end not an end in itself. The objective being to cut deaths and reboot the economy. When the dust settles we will be able to see which countries had the worst death rates and which country's economy fared worse. I hope the UK is not near the top of those lists but I honestly wouldn't bet on it right now.
    Spain and France are already running us close on new cases, while we remain much higher on new deaths. You'd expect the latter gap to close with the lag effect, and as our new cases come down whilst many in Europe rise as the new variant makes its mark.

    However in a couple of months, European life starts to move outside and the same falling away of cases that we saw last year is probable, accelerated by whatever they have managed to achieve in terms of vaccination (with a ? over whether the new variant will be contained in the same way as last year's). I think we have so much bad news in our data that, barring some unforeseen further variant, we're going to remain at the worse end of relative outcomes.
  • A whole article on Manny from the Guardian today, and we have to wait until the penultimate paragraph to get to this

    "He also said the AstraZeneca vaccine, given approval by the EU regulator on Friday for use on all adults, appeared to be “quasi-ineffective” on people older than 65, though he acknowledged he had no figures or official information."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/30/half-friends-is-not-a-concept-uk-should-decide-who-its-allies-are-says-macron?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1346810013277417473?s=21

    When the Government decide to play the vaccine, one-upmanship game... where did they expect it to end?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Again because we put a contract in place and got the drug approved well before the EU did.

    The UK signed a contract with Pfizer on July 20th 2020. They approved the vaccine for use on 2nd December 2020
    The EU signed a contract with Pfizer on November 11th and approved the vaccine for use on 21st December.

    The EU has dragged its feet over this at every stage of the process with every vaccine company. They have failed to invest properly and now scream that they are not head of the queue.
    Now, thats not quite fair - they only want their fare share - you know 11% of total for 7% of the population - after waiting for others to pony up to increase production
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672
    RobD said:

    The UK is using AZN at all ages.
    The EMA also approved it for all ages, sadly it seems as though Macron is successful muddying the waters for the vaccine that will help the world.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1346810013277417473?s=21

    When the Government decide to play the vaccine, one-upmanship game... where did they expect it to end?

    Yes, yes it must always be our fault
  • Fuck off, your humourless twat. We are supposed to treat malcy's "the few left" with reverence now are we?

    Pillock.
    You’re really morphing into one of the more unpleasant pricks on here, and that’s with some strong competition.

    I guess Carnyx and the rest of we verminous Scotch just don’t understand your English sense of irony.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Very good post @david_herdson and thanks for this. A few brief thoughts.

    1. Unlike 2017, there appears to be a substantial "anyone but Macron" faction in France. Certainly French friends who are on the traditional centre-right who voted in the second round for Macron last time won't do so again. Their family have lost businesses, their life is on hold and so on. So the advantage he had over Le Pen in the "anyone but..." category is probably diminished - a lot - from then. In fact, while Macron is not in the same category as Trump, there are plenty of people who share the same intensity of dislike for him and are happy to vote for whoever is his opponent, regardless of party.

    2. Another comment I hear increasingly from those centre-right friends is "how bad can Le Pen be?" There are some other factors here as well - what traditional Catholic voters see as the erosion of "traditional" values and the inability of the centre-right to stop it;

    3. That doesn't mean that Le Pen wins but I think it will be a lot closer than last time because of (1) and (2) but possibly also where the left (particularly Melenchon's) support goes in a second round. Last time, it held its nose (or, for the centre left, reassured by the fact Macron had served in the Socialist Government) and voted for Macron. Now they have a taste of his style of Government, it's doubtful there will be that same level of transferring of votes. In fact, some on the hard-left may think Le Pen suits their longer-term aims better i.e. with the Socialists and Centre-right broken, breaking Macron's movement, would lead to a straight forward hard right - hard left fight.

  • https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1346810013277417473?s=21

    When the Government decide to play the vaccine, one-upmanship game... where did they expect it to end?

    Is that perfectly good justification for EU/Macron's behaviour since?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    malcolmg said:

    Cold for sure here but extremely pleasant. Have to say some real snow would be nice, we had a small fall early last week but as near coast the gulf stream means we don't get much snow here nowadays.
    Think of much more import are the political and legal machinations unfolding, as more and more gets out it is hard to see Murrel towers surviving unless she goes full pelt on independence. The self interest groups, crazy bills they are promoting and the chicanery are unbelievable.
    The unholy alliance with UK civil service, the Crown etc will ensure popcorn sales are massive. Murray case being thrown out will be interesting and await the Keating's case result with interest , having been one of the 10,000 crowd funders. Who would have thought that I would be enriching lawyers.
    I can't think of a more excellent use for your money Malcolm. I was not able to find any report on the Murray case today. I was disappointed if not surprised that our media seemed so reluctant to pick up his affidavits which, once he adopted them into evidence, would have had an element of privilege about them. They were certainly an interesting read. I confess that I am having trouble working out what the Crown Office are hoping to achieve by that prosecution and it looks unlikely to succeed. If it does it would be an unacceptable restriction on free speech.

    Not so sure that the Keating case will get anywhere but our courts have shown a lot more interest in hypothetical questions of late than they used to.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Pulpstar said:

    The EU is still threatening to block vital, legally purchased, time sensitive to save lives and contractually obligated exports from a US company - perhaps one of the most crucial imports in the history of the UK.
    It's the sort of thing you might expect if China was your neighbour. Or maybe Venezuela, perhaps Putin's Russia, looking back Napoleon's France, the Soviet Union or even the Third Reich.
    But no it was the European Union who when push and shove came stuck us on a list that had Syria, Bashar Al Assad's Syria as an exclusion.
    Just horrendous.

    Yes - We absolutely need to factor this into decisions made going forward

    They do not see us as a friend and ally
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    OllyT said:

    We are due to have our first jab and I have a genuine question which I hope Foxy or someone else who knows what they are talking about will respond to.

    I get that Macron and Germany might well be playing politics with the notion that the AZN vaccine has low effectiveness for the over 65s. It is also my understanding that in the UK we have taken the decision to use Pfizer for the over 65s and AZN for the rest. If this is the case then does it not indicate that their may be some concern about the effectiveness of AZN for those over 65.

    Who do you think we have been giving AZN to for the last month???
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990

    https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1346810013277417473?s=21

    When the Government decide to play the vaccine, one-upmanship game... where did they expect it to end?

    When the EU decided to play the vaccine game on the cheap... where did they expect it to end?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    Pulpstar said:

    The EU is still threatening to block vital, legally purchased, time sensitive to save lives and contractually obligated exports from a US company - perhaps one of the most crucial imports in the history of the UK.
    It's the sort of thing you might expect if China was your neighbour. Or maybe Venezuela, perhaps Putin's Russia, looking back Napoleon's France, the Soviet Union or even the Third Reich.
    But no it was the European Union who when push and shove came stuck us on a list that had Syria, Bashar Al Assad's Syria as an exclusion.
    Just horrendous.

    The EU's true colours revealed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961
    edited January 2021
    DavidL said:

    The Welsh? I always thought that was Aberdonians. I really hope that @RochdalePioneers realises what he is letting himself in for and what getting to know the neighbours might involve.

    More seriously, at least if you are not a sheep, I would suggest that that is a major part of the answer to your question. The English may see the Scots as an entity but we see ourselves as east coasters, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Highlanders, borderers etc. The concept of a single identity is always a lot easier from outside than from inside.
    Some Scots also see themselves as British, in fact a good portion of them are *very* keen on that identity I believe.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    MaxPB said:

    Thanks to Kate Bingham and the UK government.
    I know where I live Max and who the government are, perhaps you should be trying to educate Frank rather than myself. He does not seem to understand that Scotland is in fact still in the UK and has paid upfront for our vaccines via our government using our money.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    malcolmg said:

    salt and vinegar on those chips please.
    Chip buttie sandwich perhaps?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    edited January 2021
    malcolmg said:

    I know where I live Max and who the government are, perhaps you should be trying to educate Frank rather than myself. He does not seem to understand that Scotland is in fact still in the UK and has paid upfront for our vaccines via our government using our money.
    The Scottish government led vaccine procurement for Scotland?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,606
    DavidL said:

    I can't think of a more excellent use for your money Malcolm. I was not able to find any report on the Murray case today. I was disappointed if not surprised that our media seemed so reluctant to pick up his affidavits which, once he adopted them into evidence, would have had an element of privilege about them. They were certainly an interesting read. I confess that I am having trouble working out what the Crown Office are hoping to achieve by that prosecution and it looks unlikely to succeed. If it does it would be an unacceptable restriction on free speech.

    Not so sure that the Keating case will get anywhere but our courts have shown a lot more interest in hypothetical questions of late than they used to.
    Popped in again. Thanks for that, good to see it - I had been wondering what you would make of it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,925
    edited January 2021
    I think the EU have played a blinder in recent days. Obviously, their vaccine distribution has been a bit sub-optimal, so they've orchestrated the perfect 'Dead Cat Strategy' - make everyone bang on about ephemera such contracts, Northern Ireland and export bans whilst the real issue slips quietly out of view. Much has been made of Boris's quietness during all of this. Well, he practically invented the strategy, or at least popularized it, so it makes sense that we would eschew feeding someone else's himself.
  • malcolmg said:

    Frank don't be a silly boy. Living in a member country of the EU does not mean you live in a fictional country called the EU. We have plenty of vaccines by the way , we have paid up front for them and have cast iron contracts. Toodlepip.
    Does your neck hurt, trying to face in two directions at once ?

    I've only been on PB for a few months, yet your aggression and deliberate mischaracterisation of other people stands out like a sore thumb to me. You do so much harm to your cause by the manner in which you debate here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    malcolmg said:

    Wonder if Rochdale has bought his wellies and got his length of string ready.
    This is alarmingly technical knowledge Malcolm! I refuse to ask what the string is for, I do not want to know.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    malcolmg said:

    I know where I live Max and who the government are, perhaps you should be trying to educate Frank rather than myself. He does not seem to understand that Scotland is in fact still in the UK and has paid upfront for our vaccines via our government using our money.
    That's one part of the debt at least that we can put you down for taking on post Independence then? ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282

    I think the EU have played a blinder in recent days. Obviously, their vaccine distribution has been a bit sub-optimal, so they've orchestrated the perfect 'Dead Cat Strategy' - make everyone bang on about ephemera such contracts, Northern Ireland and export bans whilst the real issue quietly slips out of view. Much has been made of Boris's quietness during all of this. Well, he practically invented the strategy, or at least popularized it, so it makes sense that we would eschew feeding someone else's himself.

    Unfortunately the real issue isn't going to quietly slip out of view, since they still won't have any vaccines.
  • Floater said:

    Yes, yes it must always be our fault
    You haven’t answered the question, when the Government decided to taunt the EU... what was their end-in-mind? Surely they factored in the risk of supply interruptions making the taunts even more antagonistic... so why did they do it?

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    malcolmg said:

    Away and get a life you numpty. Stick your life where the sun shines , as stated I have no interest in you other than you are always whining about the EU but choose to live there. If you are that stupid Jog on loser.
    For all your lack of interest you seem strangely obsessed about where people live and what rights it gives them to post on here. I note with some amusement that you don't like people whining on here about things - there must be a mirror shortage in your gaff.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672
    malcolmg said:

    I know where I live Max and who the government are, perhaps you should be trying to educate Frank rather than myself. He does not seem to understand that Scotland is in fact still in the UK and has paid upfront for our vaccines via our government using our money.
    Yes, I find the suggestion that we should withhold vaccines from Scotland extremely distasteful this morning. We should all be celebrating our success and hopeful exit from this bastard lockdown in a few months not sniping at each other.
  • Some, Scots also see themselves as British, in fact a good portion of them are *very* keen on that identity I believe.
    My wife has always considered she is Scottish and British

    I consider myself half English, half Welsh and British

    My children and grandchildren consider themselves as Welsh and British

  • I think the EU have played a blinder in recent days. Obviously, their vaccine distribution has been a bit sub-optimal, so they've orchestrated the perfect 'Dead Cat Strategy' - make everyone bang on about ephemera such contracts, Northern Ireland and export bans whilst the real issue slips quietly out of view. Much has been made of Boris's quietness during all of this. Well, he practically invented the strategy, or at least popularized it, so it makes sense that we would eschew feeding someone else's himself.

    Freude, schöner Götterfunken,
    Tochter aus Elysium...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003

    https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1346810013277417473?s=21

    When the Government decide to play the vaccine, one-upmanship game... where did they expect it to end?

    I think when the UK Gov't gets something right they're allowed to tweet about it. It's not like it's been a particularly frequent occurence through the pandemic.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    malcolmg said:

    EVEL put paid to that even though the principle had been in place for a time before that. Tories always hated devolution and moved to make sure they would not have Scots in high places again , I personally don't count a reptile like Gove as being Scottish as he is a conniving slimeball who would take on any mantle to promote himself.
    Hence the drift to certain Independence as they have marginalised anything Scottish at Westminster and actively worked against devolution and Scotland.
    Acted very like the EU are acting at the moment trying to browbeat everyone.
    Basically I totally agree with you.
    Malc, that's not a valid argument and you know it. 'There are no Scottish people in power and that Scottish person doesn't count because I don't like him'.

    Regarding the lack of Scottish politicians holding high positions in the UK parties, isn't it more a symptom of the popularity of the SNP, and the decline of the LDs, Labour, and to some extent the Tories in Scotland? The SNP in WM are, by choice, a permanent opposition. So you don't get the Browns, the Kennedys, the Darlings etc. that you once did. Hard to argue anyone else has marginalised you if you have done it yourself.
  • kle4 said:

    It's like they saw the IM Bill nonsense and thought 'instead of just threatening to do something stupid, what if we actually did the stupid thing, then acted like we didn't?'
    I grew up on a farm in Devon. One of the workers was a "foreigner" as he came from Cornwall. Bristol was a distant, almost mythical city somewhere up north...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    DavidL said:

    I can't think of a more excellent use for your money Malcolm. I was not able to find any report on the Murray case today. I was disappointed if not surprised that our media seemed so reluctant to pick up his affidavits which, once he adopted them into evidence, would have had an element of privilege about them. They were certainly an interesting read. I confess that I am having trouble working out what the Crown Office are hoping to achieve by that prosecution and it looks unlikely to succeed. If it does it would be an unacceptable restriction on free speech.

    Not so sure that the Keating case will get anywhere but our courts have shown a lot more interest in hypothetical questions of late than they used to.
    The one that got me was Mark Hirst, how anyone wasted so much police time , 5 decectives from the Salmond squad , arresting him and then actually taking it to court was unbelievable. No wonder it was flung out after 5 seconds. Some real strange goings on at the Crown office.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672

    I think the EU have played a blinder in recent days. Obviously, their vaccine distribution has been a bit sub-optimal, so they've orchestrated the perfect 'Dead Cat Strategy' - make everyone bang on about ephemera such contracts, Northern Ireland and export bans whilst the real issue slips quietly out of view. Much has been made of Boris's quietness during all of this. Well, he practically invented the strategy, or at least popularized it, so it makes sense that we would eschew feeding someone else's himself.

    At least you're consistent to the character!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    OllyT said:

    We are due to have our first jab and I have a genuine question which I hope Foxy or someone else who knows what they are talking about will respond to.

    I get that Macron and Germany might well be playing politics with the notion that the AZN vaccine has low effectiveness for the over 65s. It is also my understanding that in the UK we have taken the decision to use Pfizer for the over 65s and AZN for the rest. If this is the case then does it not indicate that their may be some concern about the effectiveness of AZN for those over 65.

    I think your understanding is wrong. AZN is being used for all age groups. Most intitially were Pfizer as this was what they had. AZN has been approved for use by the MHRA and the EMA for all ages.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    RobD said:

    The EU's true colours revealed.
    Hard to believe they would be stupid enough to follow it through, someone must have some sense and just let it blow over.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Pulpstar said:

    I think when the UK Gov't gets something right they're allowed to tweet about it. It's not like it's been a particularly frequent occurence through the pandemic.
    Every government on the planet (and the EU, UN, WHO etc etc) tweets their successes.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I think the EU have played a blinder in recent days. Obviously, their vaccine distribution has been a bit sub-optimal, so they've orchestrated the perfect 'Dead Cat Strategy' - make everyone bang on about ephemera such contracts, Northern Ireland and export bans whilst the real issue slips quietly out of view. Much has been made of Boris's quietness during all of this. Well, he practically invented the strategy, or at least popularized it, so it makes sense that we would eschew feeding someone else's himself.

    That's got them through this week, if they're looking to dead cat strategies as the solution they will need a couple of month's worth.

    A better strategy might be to start pouring serious money into improving the supply situation, probably above and beyond their core requirements, so that once the storm is weathered they can start recapturing the high ground and begin distributing largesse around the rest of the world.

    Another point of course (and one i'm not sure how much is taken account of in the vaccines they've purchased so far) is that it is quite likely that there will be repeated waves of vaccine distribution required and oversupply will be a necessity, even for their own population.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Worth a read

    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/corona-impfstoff-knappheit-die-eu-hat-einen-machtverlust-erlitten-und-das-bekommt-sie-jetzt-zu-spueren-a-7dc4101c-abb8-4883-b4f6-4acad29b5acb

    "The EU has suffered a loss of power and it is feeling that now."

    ""The EU was very patronizing""

    "Now suddenly Brussels too is fighting for the solid interests of its member states. But unfortunately only from a position of relative weakness."

    "if “protecting the European way of life” is the goal of the EU Commission, then it has burned a lot of goodwill here. "

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    malcolmg said:

    Hard to believe they would be stupid enough to follow it through, someone must have some sense and just let it blow over.
    We'll see malc. They've built up a dangerous head of steam.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742

    Some Scots also see themselves as British, in fact a good portion of them are *very* keen on that identity I believe.
    55% last time we checked. But yes, any expectation of a single "English" identity is as absurd as a single "Scots" identity.
  • RobD said:

    So one minister pointing out how successful the vaccine program he is partly responsible for justifies banning vaccine exports? What planet do you live on?
    You’re not answering the question, why did Hancock decide it was appropriate to taunt Europe? He did it more than once. It was clearly a deliberate choice... so what was their end-game?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    The nice thing about this nation of philosophers is that they'll always do whatever it takes to make sure the far right never wins. I wish I could trust the UK to do the same

    The Second Empire?
    Vichy France
    Arguably Gen de Gaulle
    Poujadism
    The FN having large numbers of elected politician running local and regional governments

    vs

    Ummm...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282

    You’re not answering the question, why did Hancock decide it was appropriate to taunt Europe? He did it more than once. It was clearly a deliberate choice... so what was their end-game?
    The EU took that as a taunt? Just how thin-skinned are they? He was tweeting the success of the government's program by making relevant international comparisons. To somehow claim that this justifies the EU's export ban is quite frankly the most absurd thing I've seen posted on here... at least this morning.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    JonathanD said:

    The EU investment was in Biontech and while the UK was in the EU so UKs money too.
    To be fair, the German Government invested significantly more in Biontech, and that of course did not include the UK.

    My issue with the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine is the expense due to the profit that they're hoping for. As a capitalist, I don't begrudge anyone a profit, even in a pandemic, but I do think it's highly unfair that AZN, who are doing this not for profit, are getting all the flak. If they were charging per dose the same as Pfizer, they could throw up cities of vaccine factories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907

    https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1346810013277417473?s=21

    When the Government decide to play the vaccine, one-upmanship game... where did they expect it to end?

    Looking back that tweet is a bit crass but I dont think anyone expected the situation in the EU to be as it is.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    You haven’t answered the question, when the Government decided to taunt the EU... what was their end-in-mind? Surely they factored in the risk of supply interruptions making the taunts even more antagonistic... so why did they do it?

    I get it EU good UK bad

    You might want to think on EU taunts and provocations - let alone outright threats

    Syria good - UK / USA bad to our "friends" in the EU
  • You’re not answering the question, why did Hancock decide it was appropriate to taunt Europe? He did it more than once. It was clearly a deliberate choice... so what was their end-game?
    Do you understand the word politics

    Everyone does it
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    The EU took that as a taunt? Just how thin-skinned are they? He was tweeting the success of the government's program by making relevant international comparisons. To somehow claim that this justifies the EU's export ban is quite frankly the most absurd thing I've seen posted on here... at least this morning.
    And by god that is against stiff competition

  • Malc, that's not a valid argument and you know it. 'There are no Scottish people in power and that Scottish person doesn't count because I don't like him'.

    Regarding the lack of Scottish politicians holding high positions in the UK parties, isn't it more a symptom of the popularity of the SNP, and the decline of the LDs, Labour, and to some extent the Tories in Scotland? The SNP in WM are, by choice, a permanent opposition. So you don't get the Browns, the Kennedys, the Darlings etc. that you once did. Hard to argue anyone else has marginalised you if you have done it yourself.
    It is literally the "no true Scotsman" argument. And I'm using literally with its original meaning.
  • You’re not answering the question, why did Hancock decide it was appropriate to taunt Europe? He did it more than once. It was clearly a deliberate choice... so what was their end-game?
    The only correct response to "taunting" - fetchez la vache
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FDL2BzUfCE
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907

    You’re not answering the question, why did Hancock decide it was appropriate to taunt Europe? He did it more than once. It was clearly a deliberate choice... so what was their end-game?
    Haven’t they been taunting us about our high number of deaths? I agree that we shouldn’t have done the same thing over the vaccine rollout. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Charles said:

    The Second Empire?
    Vichy France
    Arguably Gen de Gaulle
    Poujadism
    The FN having large numbers of elected politician running local and regional governments

    vs

    Ummm...
    Roger is a lot thicker than the of Hartlepudlians he is so fond of disparaging? Who knew?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,643
    felix said:

    I think your understanding is wrong. AZN is being used for all age groups. Most intitially were Pfizer as this was what they had. AZN has been approved for use by the MHRA and the EMA for all ages.
    Yes, it seems pretty random (unfortunately IMO, Olly's policy would be better, since Pfizer has the higher effectiveness so it makes sense to use it for the most vulnerable groups). A friend who is 75 got the AZ vaccine yesterday.

    I get mine on Tuesday (don't know which). The enquiry was curiously tentative - "We could now offer you a vaccination. Would you be interested in doing that?" "Yes, of course." "It'll be at 8.27 on Tuesday, I know that's awfully earlky, will that be OK?" "Yes!" Just a very polite volunteer, I guess.
  • I grew up on a farm in Devon. One of the workers was a "foreigner" as he came from Cornwall. Bristol was a distant, almost mythical city somewhere up north...
    That was supposed to be a reply to @DavidL: I blame the wet cat trying to sit on my keyboard...
  • DavidL said:

    55% last time we checked. But yes, any expectation of a single "English" identity is as absurd as a single "Scots" identity.
    I would imagine even a cursory examination of subsequent polling suggests that a significant part of that 55% were also quite attached to their European & EU identities. If not your guys seemed to be misdirecting some of their efforts.

    https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584?s=21
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,325
    Andy_JS said:

    Haven’t they been taunting us about our high number of deaths? I agree that we shouldn’t have done the same thing over the vaccine rollout. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
    I don't remember the EU taunting us about deaths, only people within the UK, rightly or wrongly.
  • Do you understand the word politics

    Everyone does it
    And it’s really bad when the other lot do it but perfectly ok when we do it.
  • Yes, it seems pretty random (unfortunately IMO, Olly's policy would be better, since Pfizer has the higher effectiveness so it makes sense to use it for the most vulnerable groups). A friend who is 75 got the AZ vaccine yesterday.

    I get mine on Tuesday (don't know which). The enquiry was curiously tentative - "We could now offer you a vaccination. Would you be interested in doing that?" "Yes, of course." "It'll be at 8.27 on Tuesday, I know that's awfully earlky, will that be OK?" "Yes!" Just a very polite volunteer, I guess.
    If they asked you to stay for 15 minutes after the jab to make sure you didn't have an allergic reaction it was Pfizer. If you were in and out quickly it was AZ.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,959
    edited January 2021
    MrEd said:

    Very good post @david_herdson and thanks for this. A few brief thoughts.

    1. Unlike 2017, there appears to be a substantial "anyone but Macron" faction in France. Certainly French friends who are on the traditional centre-right who voted in the second round for Macron last time won't do so again. Their family have lost businesses, their life is on hold and so on. So the advantage he had over Le Pen in the "anyone but..." category is probably diminished - a lot - from then. In fact, while Macron is not in the same category as Trump, there are plenty of people who share the same intensity of dislike for him and are happy to vote for whoever is his opponent, regardless of party.

    2. Another comment I hear increasingly from those centre-right friends is "how bad can Le Pen be?" There are some other factors here as well - what traditional Catholic voters see as the erosion of "traditional" values and the inability of the centre-right to stop it;

    3. That doesn't mean that Le Pen wins but I think it will be a lot closer than last time because of (1) and (2) but possibly also where the left (particularly Melenchon's) support goes in a second round. Last time, it held its nose (or, for the centre left, reassured by the fact Macron had served in the Socialist Government) and voted for Macron. Now they have a taste of his style of Government, it's doubtful there will be that same level of transferring of votes. In fact, some on the hard-left may think Le Pen suits their longer-term aims better i.e. with the Socialists and Centre-right broken, breaking Macron's movement, would lead to a straight forward hard right - hard left fight.

    I've had a dabble on Melenchon (28) and Barnier (54).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420

    I don't remember the EU taunting us about deaths, only people within the UK, rightly or wrongly.
    Of course, on that issue, they have left up to national governments...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    I think Le Pen wins this time. Why?

    1. Fundamentally Macron has failed. Whether he was trying to do the right things or not, or in the right way, on the main metrics, on the economy and Covid, he has failed.

    2. One of the features of Macron's failure is that he's failed to stand up ideologically against the fringes of the right. He fawned over Trump. He speaks the words of anti-vaxxers. This has acted to normalize the politics of Le Pen.

    3. There's no-one else. Maybe someone will emerge, but I think not. Hollande came to office with the enthusiasm that the centre-left had the answers to French malaise, after the failures of the centre-right. He failed. Macron is the failure of the radical centre. This leaves only the Left vs the Right - and my sense is that, as with Corbyn, the Left in France is still mired in the arguments of the past, and doesn't have a story about the future to tell the voters. And so, Le Pen.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I see the EU is pushing out a load of propaganda for some reason today...

    https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1355458586902720512

    It is taking place - just without any sense of urgency......
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    felix said:

    Roger is a lot thicker than the of Hartlepudlians he is so fond of disparaging? Who knew?
    A friend who moved to France had a nasty experience. He joined in a local demo against a McDonalds opening up - he had no idea of where some of that comes from in France.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,936

    Yes, it seems pretty random (unfortunately IMO, Olly's policy would be better, since Pfizer has the higher effectiveness so it makes sense to use it for the most vulnerable groups). A friend who is 75 got the AZ vaccine yesterday.

    I get mine on Tuesday (don't know which). The enquiry was curiously tentative - "We could now offer you a vaccination. Would you be interested in doing that?" "Yes, of course." "It'll be at 8.27 on Tuesday, I know that's awfully earlky, will that be OK?" "Yes!" Just a very polite volunteer, I guess.
    Didn't you ask? You wont want to get the wrong one when it comes to the second jab.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,325
    tlg86 said:

    Of course, on that issue, they have left up to national governments...
    As far as I can tell, all goverments compare themselves against other country's records, from UK/US to UK/NZ to UK/Italy last March to US/China. This is a result of a "league table" world.
  • Trompe in French means wrong.

    President Trompe works quite well for me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,672

    I think Le Pen wins this time. Why?

    1. Fundamentally Macron has failed. Whether he was trying to do the right things or not, or in the right way, on the main metrics, on the economy and Covid, he has failed.

    2. One of the features of Macron's failure is that he's failed to stand up ideologically against the fringes of the right. He fawned over Trump. He speaks the words of anti-vaxxers. This has acted to normalize the politics of Le Pen.

    3. There's no-one else. Maybe someone will emerge, but I think not. Hollande came to office with the enthusiasm that the centre-left had the answers to French malaise, after the failures of the centre-right. He failed. Macron is the failure of the radical centre. This leaves only the Left vs the Right - and my sense is that, as with Corbyn, the Left in France is still mired in the arguments of the past, and doesn't have a story about the future to tell the voters. And so, Le Pen.

    Don't say that, the next few years are already going to be terrible with the COVID recovery being slower than expected all over the world. The last thing we need is Le Pen to win in France. Macron has been a bit useless lately but that's still so much better than Le Pen. That family and their values should not be allowed anywhere near the levers of power.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    Makes the demands from some people that we join it even more absurd.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Did this get missed in yesterdays excitement?

    https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1355375512772898817
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    alex_ said:

    That's one part of the debt at least that we can put you down for taking on post Independence then? ;)
    As long as we get our fair share of all assets we will take on a fair share of the debts. No share of all the assets , infrastructure , buildings , ships , embassies etc that we have paid for then as per the last time rUK will choose to keep its debt.
This discussion has been closed.