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Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com
Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com
No incumbent French president has won re-election since the terms were reduced from seven years to five. Granted, there are not many examples – two – on which to base what might appear to be if not a rule of thumb then certainly a trend. But nor is the Élysée exactly a secure base from which to a presidential campaign (compare here with the American presidency).
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On-topic. Thanks for this David.
FPT: There's plenty not on there. Two interesting ones are:
* That the EU Commission published their "redacted" contract with much of the redacted content left in the bookmarks. Which repeats the type of mistake that amateurs used to make in redactions at least 12-15 years ago, when you could read a many redacted reports by a staight cut and paste to Word or similar from the "editing" version of Acrobat.
That puts them in breach of their own confidentiality clause. Here, the bits in red are those that have been exposed by cockup (in addition to the prices sent out by mistake the other day):
https://fragdenstaat.de/dokumente/8409-apa_-_astrazeneca/
* I'm seeing the first glimmerings of interesting debates about EU Reform from groups who have previously worshipped the ground it stands on. ie Young professionals / activists who have felt the EU has done much to help their countries move from e.g. old Easter Europe into the 21st century, or say ROI citizens and online civil society activists.
Debates about Democratic Deficit, how do we control this thing when it goes bezerk sometimes? Still plenty of belief in the fake stuff about AZT, and questions / assumptions on AZT actions, but a glimmer of proper skepticism.
I hope that out of this the terms of debate will shift a little.
(Personally I voted Brexit for sovereignty reasons, and because I think the EU as it was was an irreformable inward-looking pig-in-a-poke headed for the rocks, so I am encouraged by that. One question is how we help that process, it having proved impossible from inside.)
HOWEVER - what nobody writing here seems to have appreciated yet, although you can be bloody certain that the First Minister of Scotland has, is that the worse relations between the UK and the EU become, the more remote the prospect of Scottish independence becomes also.
It's quite simple really. When you get down to brass tacks, the sole purpose of the Act of Union was to strip Scotland of its ability to make common cause with a hostile foreign power and surround England. The rest of it - including free trade, the equivalent money, and unrestricted access to the colonies - was just about providing generous enough terms and guarantees to persuade the Scottish Parliament to accept. Thus, each time the EU becomes that little bit less friendly, the greater the incentive becomes for Westminster to hold on to Scotland at all costs.
Watch what happens over the next few years. If the UK-EU relationship continues along the trajectory established by this month's disastrous events then it's very easy to envision an end point at which, after a report from a constitutional commission or some such thing, Westminster passes legislation that creates a federal or quasi-federal system - probably entailing yet more devolution, especially with respect to tax-raising powers - but which also declares Great Britain a perpetual union and rules secession to be illegal forever.
Going right back to pre-devolution days and the "Independence in Europe" campaign, the vision of the independence movement has always been of Scotland and the remainder of the UK sitting peaceably side by side within a wider community of friendly powers. If most of the other powers cease to be friendly then that vision evaporates. It's that simple.
France did elect as President a man, and later a party, that benefited from a military coup against a democratic government. No country is immune to the far Right.
In terms of betting, I would agree with DH, Le Pen and one other will be the final two, but that second person may not be Macron. After all, who had heard of Macron at this stage in the last electoral cycle?
I like Macron politically (though he is wrong about the AZN vaccine). The structural problems of the French economy are fairly intractable, and I don't think that he had the level of organisation and infrastructure in his party to do the hard work of bringing the people with him on reform.
The French are a truculent bunch, one thing that we as a nation share too, and not easy to reform.
I think it will probably be Macron vs Le Pen, but wouldn't count on him winning. Le Pen cannot be kept out forever, and has significantly rowed back from euroscepticism.
I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.
How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
It’s amazing to reflect this happening in the U.K. A centrist emerging from the Labour Party, winning power and destroying the Labour and Conservative parties and leaving Farage as the only viable challenger.
While I think Scotland would have quite a lot to deal with on a hostile border at Gretna Green, I think the Scottish attitude to the Auld Alliance is quite different to the English one.
There was a poll too this week that showed a Welsh majority for Rejoin, and that would have even more complex problems.
The problem is that Brexit was always a project of English Nationalism, so as inevitably the sunlight uplands are shown to be barren, inevitably the English government will be blamed. That is why the United Kingdom is doomed. It is only a matter of when and how now.
I'd back Macron at 5/4 but not 4/5.
Duly noted.
This vaccine debacle has many causes, but the absence of the U.K. inside the EU is one of them.
PP thanks you for your condescension.
I am no unionist, but sorry: if the sabre-rattling from across the Channel continues then that can only have one effect. A widening rift, which will necessarily preclude the Government in London from making concessions on territorial integrity, beyond Northern Ireland which is an exceptional case. You don't like it, I don't like it, but it's true regardless. So let's just hope that, having finally done something to de-escalate tensions late last night, there aren't any further acts of capricious and brazen stupidity, shall we?
It does feel to me like Covid has a few more surprises to spring on us all yet though, and what seems electorally obvious today might not be so tomorrow.
The last 48 hours must have hit you hard.
Or are you really virtue signalling that England should hold Scotland prisoner just in case they still talk to the EU.
Indeed, I hedged about Le Pen too.
That the UK government had No Clue about any of this should be a surprise but isn't. They had no idea how the border actually operated. Which is why most of the information that companies needed to "check, change, go" was not available.
Squabbling over vaccine supplies was always going to happen, particularly when manufacturers have trailed over optimistic deliveries. I don't think the EU has acted sensibly over vaccines. Health has always been a national competence within the EU, and should have stayed that way.
Unlike most on here, they understood this is political posturing and unhelpful pantomime from the EU, that vaccines procured by the UK will continue to arrive from the EU, and that the only benefit from escalation would be a short term polling boost back home. In the best British traditions, keeping calm and quietly getting an assurance that deliveries of vaccines will continue was entirely the right response.
When we were a member we were a very loud third wheel banging the table whilst the Franco-German integrationist axis ploughed on regardless. And they still did nutty things then: selecting Juncker, institutional gymnastics over the Eurozone bailout to get round our veto and the mother of all brainfarts over the refugee crisis then as well
The response to that is normally, "if only we'd joined in breaking bie with Jean Monnett in 1948", or "if only we'd fully signed up to the Euro and all its trappings", it'd all be different.
I think that's nonsense. The fundamental difference is philosophical: British Governments (be they Conservative or Labour) have been interested in power broking using votes to further the national interest, not as passionate believers in the project to build a new federal superpower based on an emotion of European solidarity.
And that's the circle that could never be squared.
Are a majority of Scots happy that they get one vote each which weighs the same as anyone anywhere in the U.K., and that the concept of Scotland and “Scotland’s view” is no more meaningful in the Commons then Lancashire and “Lancashire’s view” is?
If not, then Scotland should be independent. No point in a union with Scotland if the Scots don’t want it.
Newspapers and PB armchair Generals talking of war, less so...
"Gallina, shaken by the move, dived into the customs records to find evidence that AstraZeneca had shipped EU-produced doses to the UK – but without success."
(Gallina is the EU vaccine supply negotiation czar. "The move" is the AZ reduction in available supply.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/coronavirus-what-is-eu-medical-equipment-scheme-why-did-uk-opt-out
https://twitter.com/Helen121/status/1355207846560997376?s=19
Also worth remembering that this is a zero sum game where the total amount of vaccine is unchanged. Had the nations of Europe gone their own ways, we'd still have the same total doses of vaccine, but they would have fallen differently.
History makes it hard for Germany and France to openly disagree. The British never had that baggage, could disagree with whoever and thereby unlocked debate.
The EU needs to relearn how to be confident enough to deal with debate.
If there is a Europe wide rollout, will prioritising "hot spots" or similar first be a more effective strategy than by distribution by population ratios? Or is it much of a muchness?
You don't help your credibility by failing to acknowledge how jaw-dropping this week has been.
It's basically the party the tories wish they had the self-confidence to be.
It appears that we didn't understand what that actually meant.
I always have predicted that immunisation across Europe would be patchy at best. Apart from childhood vaccinations, the systems of distribution are very poor compared to the NHS. As I have posted before, this has been true for years:
Rather than hedging, haggling and belatedly raising orders on the coat tails of the efforts of others. And then maybe there might have been a bit more vaccine to fight over...
Only because I was lucky enough to have a little on Mr. Thompson's perfectly timed 251 tip.
Previously backed Hunt as well, so unless Hunt's odds decline for laying likewise, I think that'll be it for me on the next PM market (green whatever happens, as it stands).
Problem is, the European Commission has now trashed its aloof and technocratic brand and I am not sure how good they will be at this populism thing.
The German politicians and media are turning on Ursula von der Leyen:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/29/german-politicians-turn-careless-ursula-von-der-leyen-vaccine
Thing is, they know from past experiences that she's not very good.
I predict that in 12 months Britain will be vaccinated, significantly Covid-free, largely able to travel globally on vaccine passports whilst the EU will still be languishing behind on vaccinating its citizens at around 50%.
And the Conservatives will hold a 10-point lead over Labour.
Okay, the last one is less sure but if the science is correct: that vaccines are our way out of this then Johnson is going to get his wish. He will look like Churchill.
Not exactly "the usual suspects" which says quite a lot.
And remind us who until late last night was threatening the Good Friday Agreement - no les than the EU Commission. I think your priorities here are somewhat muddled.
It's because they fear people don't think they are, and are therefore not as powerful or influential as they look, because they know that behind the scenes there *are* lots of disagreements.
They say it so often that they're starting to look a bit of an empty vessel.
Somebody really is sitting on BoZo's head...
And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.
I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
Some 3rd country status.
A basic principle of negotiation. Don't fuck up the deal then complain to the counter-party about its terms. I remember the Woolies Commercial Director trying that on the year before they folded. The deal wasn't generous enough in various parameters. "But those were the terms you inserted into the deal and signed".
However, as vaccines are the way out of this I strongly suggest you wait for the final tally rather than the one at half-time.
Or, radical idea as it seems to be for many companies, pay your employees decently, keep them safe productive and committed, make them the consumers you need. Every worker with a disposable income creates jobs for other people.
That says so much. They were that worried about the UK making the EU look bad, they drove us to the point where....we made deals that made the EU look bad.
How many mistakes has BoZo admitted while 100,000 people died?
If there is another indyref I no longer believe the Scots will vote for independence. That's based on talking to people who know your country and live there, recent polling and the latest appalling behaviour by the EU.
Regardless, the instinct was clear, we will lie and cheat, and don't give a flying f##k about UK grannies, all that matters was finding somebody else to blame.
My take is.
No EU nation were obliged by being in EU to have gone down collective EU route, they all could have done a UK. So going back to the beginning, did they choose the wrong path, did they make a mistake?
Or did they choose the sensible path in wishing to avoid the messy, divisive, winners and losers mad scramble of COVID nationalism?
Here’s the kicker, as Boris would say. The EU nations put their faith in a commission to do a fine job with vaccine task force/commercially. So whilst the EU Nations were sat there like a lobotomised cat, did the UK benefit from this? Does the strength of the UK position owe something to the EU not competing with us at the same time in the messy, divisive, winners and losers mad scramble of COVID nationalism?
If the truth is anything but no, my reasoning is this is actually an awkward position for UK to be in diplomatically. How? Why? Simply because COVID crisis still has a long way to run. New vaccines (and other help) can come along stronger than their predecessors at preventing hospitalisation and death whilst restricting transmissions, each one different efficacy in different age groups. Simply put, this is far too early in the game to go burning our bridges to help and cooperation.
Anyway, my poster friends, as Dave would say, let’s have a chillax Saturday.
Here is a cheerful song used in a very good film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgeIINs1TrQ
We did not have to sign such a shite trade deal - or even leave the EU - to do what we're doing. As the Doctor who signed off the vaccines stated very clearly at the press conference when asked that question.
It reminds me of the French offer to participate in their SLBM program at the time that Thatcher went for Trident.
- Pay more than Trident
- Less capable system
- All manufacturing to remain in France
- UK to violate previous agreements with the US and hand over all information on Polaris.
An offer so stupid, that you genuinely wonder why they bothered to waste the paper.