I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
You often talked about Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
World class edit there, well done for preempting it.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
It's why groups of people, living in a community that take against, for example, measles vaccination get quite a lot of it.
Does make me wonder about schools, given that children will presumably not get vaccinated (none in trials so no safety data?). Of course, if enough in the population are vaccinated then the incidence will tend to zero anyway, but in the short term one infected child in a school could potentially infect many others. Low risk, in these groups of course, as far as we know, but I wonder whether that will lead to continued precautions in schools until community incidence is very low.
If, say, schools did reopen mid-Feb then the infection risks would likely be very similar to several points last year, albeit much lower risk of severe cases in vaccinated older people in contact with children.
There's a lot we don't know about this virus. We can make a lot of (highly) educated guesses, but viruses can mutate very easily, and hence quickly. So you could well be right.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
Breach of statutory duty under the Consumer Protection Act 1987 perhaps? I believe that's a tort.
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are slipping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to "Boris". I’m sorry, PB.
I guess on the STD metaphor beloved of PBers, Trump was-nose-fall-off, general pareses syphilis while BJ is herpes, still an unpleasant, suppurating sore on your privates but you can live with it.
That's pretty much it. I get a flash of "Oh god, Johnson is our PM" every now and again, it plays up (as it were) and I have to take a moment, but then I shrug it off and get about my business. I can live an almost normal life.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
Indeed, I cannot tell you how much I despise people like this.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Really? What motive could you possibly have to wish to unseat an MP dedicated to exposing dangerous, unscientific rubbish?
In the same way as the Spanish inquisition was dedicated to exposing dangerous, uncatholic heretics?
Or McCarthyism
That's another manifestation, indeed.
The way he said ooh we've saved what you've written to use against you later.....!!!! when the reckoning comes
Luckily I don't think there will be any appetite for this. I sincerely hope there isn't.
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
"As do others who simply refuse to accept brexit I believe it is called BDS" "I hesitate to say it but I will BDS We do not know how the future pans out, but I did not need to check who the author was of this piece" "BDS is a serious and acute condition"
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are dropping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to him. I’m sorry, PB.
I congratulate you on your comments which are sincere, honest and are much to be admired
Indeed I can even say I agree with virtually all of it
Thank you, BigG! - I now have warm feeling inside.
You'll need to keep quiet about how keen you are on Drakeford then, or......
Now then, not at all and the narrative across Wales is just how have we become so much worse than the other nations of the UK
Drakeford's comments that he was going to slow the pace of vaccinations may just have ended his chance of remaining in power
And my 81 year old wife still awaits her vaccination
Watching the procession of former presidents walking down steps - if Trump had turned up would he have been booed rather than applauded do you think?
I do not know. Good to see Mike Pence and his wife recieved a good reception by the people attending,Just watching it live on CNN. Especially after the mob two weeks ago were threatening to hang him.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Normally in academia you don't delete your old manuscripts if they were demonstrated to be complete bollocks.
MSS? Or publications?
One does sometimes dump old paper MSS (albeit with a copy saved on disc) but published papers are ineradicable.
My in laws got the jab this morning. 71 and 69 with PECs. Nurse turned up at their door shortly after texting. Seems efficient and made sense to do them both on one visit.
As I pointed out yesterday the figures given are for the day before yesterday and any prior to that not previously reported.
So we get good figures Wednesday to Sunday and dire ones on Monday / Tuesday that people then spend Tuesday night / Wednesday morning complaining about because they think it's Monday's vaccinations when it's actually Sunday's.
And that was true both last week and this week and will probably be true next Tuesday as well
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
You often talked about Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are dropping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to him. I’m sorry, PB.
I congratulate you on your comments which are sincere, honest and are much to be admired
Indeed I can even say I agree with virtually all of it
Thank you, BigG! - I now have warm feeling inside.
You'll need to keep quiet about how keen you are on Drakeford then, or......
Now then, not at all and the narrative across Wales is just how have we become so much worse than the other nations of the UK
Drakeford's comments that he was going to slow the pace of vaccinations may just have ended his chance of remaining in power
And my 81 year old wife still awaits her vaccination
Lots of complaints in East Anglia, too, according to the BBC.
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
You often talked about Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
"XYZ Derangement Syndrome" is not a great development in political discourse.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
And it's more complicated still than that, as prior infection confers some immunity. It's not true to say that you're either 100% immune, or 0% - everyone will develop some kind of immune response. Which is perhaps why, for example, AZN didn't see any serious cases is the vaccine arm of their clinical trial - and probably also why viruses persist in the general population, but become less virulent.
And still lots of uncertainties with Covid. We don't know if it will fairly rapidly (thanks to mass vaccination) become a non-virulent endemic virus like the other common cold coronaviruses, or if we're going to have to continue develop vaccines against nasty mutations for some time.
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are dropping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to him. I’m sorry, PB.
I congratulate you on your comments which are sincere, honest and are much to be admired
Indeed I can even say I agree with virtually all of it
Thank you, BigG! - I now have warm feeling inside.
You'll need to keep quiet about how keen you are on Drakeford then, or......
Now then, not at all and the narrative across Wales is just how have we become so much worse than the other nations of the UK
Drakeford's comments that he was going to slow the pace of vaccinations may just have ended his chance of remaining in power
And my 81 year old wife still awaits her vaccination
Oh dear, it was a little joke; I didn't mean to set you off on your DDS again!
Record deaths - but cases still trending down and admissions growth slowing.
I'm very surprised at just 39k today with it being a wednesday. I was expecting at least 50k on day of reporting basis due to backfilling the weekend - that doesn't seem to have transpired?
Lockdown and vaccine perhaps squishing this quicker than expected. Hopefully having NHS staff vaccinated will alone make a major difference to R.
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
You often talked about Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
"XYZ Derangement Syndrome" is not a great development in political discourse.
As I pointed out yesterday the figures given are for the day before yesterday and any prior to that not previously reported.
So we get good figures Wednesday to Sunday and dire ones on Monday / Tuesday that people then spend Tuesday night / Wednesday morning complaining about because they think it's Monday's vaccinations when it's actually Sunday's.
And that was true both last week and this week and will probably be true next Tuesday as well
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
You often talked about Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
And only when appropriate
What, a joky reference to a pseudo mental disorder because you disagree with someone on a point of politics? Could you outline the rules for when jokes about psychological disabilities are appropriate,so that we know in future?
As I pointed out yesterday the figures given are for the day before yesterday and any prior to that not previously reported.
So we get good figures Wednesday to Sunday and dire ones on Monday / Tuesday that people then spend Tuesday night / Wednesday morning complaining about because they think it's Monday's vaccinations when it's actually Sunday's.
And that was true both last week and this week and will probably be true next Tuesday as well
We have officially had a higher peak of deaths in the second wave, 1110 on the 12th of Jan vs 1073 on the 8th of April, I think the number starts to fall from there but at a slower rate than it did in the first wave where we had less overall activity and we weren't contending with a more infectious strain.
As I pointed out yesterday the figures given are for the day before yesterday and any prior to that not previously reported.
So we get good figures Wednesday to Sunday and dire ones on Monday / Tuesday that people then spend Tuesday night / Wednesday morning complaining about because they think it's Monday's vaccinations when it's actually Sunday's.
And that was true both last week and this week and will probably be true next Tuesday as well
Trouble is we need 370k/day including weekends.
Modern cricket always see the boundary smashed in the final overs.
>500k in weekdays in final weeks will easily see it home.
Record deaths - but cases still trending down and admissions growth slowing.
1,820 dead and only 142 new admissions - does that suggest some easing off of the pressure on the NHS (grim as that process undoubtedly is)?
No, that's the increase in the number of admissions vs the previous 7 days. The actual number is 3,887 admitted to hospitals on the 16th, it's still a massive disaster.
I attended Obama's inauguration in 2009. It was cold AF and I was too far away to really see anything but I was glad to be there. These things are great historic occasions.
As I pointed out yesterday the figures given are for the day before yesterday and any prior to that not previously reported.
So we get good figures Wednesday to Sunday and dire ones on Monday / Tuesday that people then spend Tuesday night / Wednesday morning complaining about because they think it's Monday's vaccinations when it's actually Sunday's.
And that was true both last week and this week and will probably be true next Tuesday as well
Trouble is we need 370k/day including weekends.
Give it time
Yeah, I'm honestly not worried about meeting the target, it's actually ensuring that people who have been jabbed the first time don't use it as a licence to let loose and end up in hospital before they get full protection two weeks after the second one.
We have officially had a higher peak of deaths in the second wave, 1110 on the 12th of Jan vs 1073 on the 8th of April, I think the number starts to fall from there but at a slower rate than it did in the first wave where we had less overall activity and we weren't contending with a more infectious strain.
At the moment the cases look to me to be going down almost as fast as they went up. Let's hope that continues as it is still early days in that downward trend. Last year it was a much slower decrease.
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
You often talked about Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
And only when appropriate
What, a joky reference to a pseudo mental disorder because you disagree with someone on a point of politics? Could you outline the rules for when jokes about psychological disabilities are appropriate,so that we know in future?
In view of the serious nature of a family members mental health issues, I accept that BDS is not suitable and will not use it in the future
However, I am very emotional as a member of my family who has PTSD, following earthquake rescue, is about to undergo Electroconvulsive therapy
Maybe we all need to be careful and I most certainly will
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
There is a rather academic, but still quite fun, book about how members of cults mentally deal with situations where end of the world doesn't happen as forecast, called When Prophecy Fails.
Some will rationalize, others will become disillusioned and angry, some will simply allow themselves to fade away from the cult, and will almost pretend to themselves that they were never members, and always doubted the prophecies.
Similar things, I suspect, will happen with QAnon believers.
I remember that book from undergraduate days. I thought the authors had a regrettable tendency to mock the deluded cultists. Why people cling to demonstrably incorrect beliefs is a fascinating topic and worthy of more respect than the authors gave it.
They did however reveal the extreme lengths some people will go to in denying manifest truths, though it remains a mystery how and why some are able to adjust their attitudes whilst others prefer to redefine reality to bring it into line with those attitudes.
Must have been about 1970 when I read it. Would be surprising if our understanding hadn't progressed much since.
It has. Jonah Berger's recent book, The Catalyst: How to Change Anyone's Mind, gets into the issue of how people can not only reject facts, but dismiss the person/qualification of the messenger when those facts are too far from their world view. Think Overton window applied to individuals' understanding of the world.
That sounds like a good book.
I always tell my colleagues You'll never change anyone's mind. If someone doesn't like it, move on, don't waste your time.
It's not really true, but it's good time management.
Record deaths - but cases still trending down and admissions growth slowing.
1,820 dead and only 142 new admissions - does that suggest some easing off of the pressure on the NHS (grim as that process undoubtedly is)?
Isn't it a net 142 increase in admissions?
So would be a 1962 increase and 1820 decrease potentially?
No, there was a net increase of 1046 on the 18th, that means over a thousand more people joined the top of the funnel than left the bottom of it by recovering or unfortunately, dying.
As I pointed out yesterday the figures given are for the day before yesterday and any prior to that not previously reported.
So we get good figures Wednesday to Sunday and dire ones on Monday / Tuesday that people then spend Tuesday night / Wednesday morning complaining about because they think it's Monday's vaccinations when it's actually Sunday's.
And that was true both last week and this week and will probably be true next Tuesday as well
Trouble is we need 370k/day including weekends.
Give it time
Sure, if we give it time it will be more than 370k/day!
I don't think we are going to see another 150k daily on top of that this week.
I think we will get around 450k per day done on average from Wed-Tues.
Daily Mail currently.rewriting all the articles they did over the past 2 days in regards to how badly the vaccine roll out is going....
It's going from Murder Tuesday to why we don't need lockdowns.
Its coverage really has been off the charts...flipping from the government is useless for locking down too slowly to the government is useless for not opening up quickly enough in the time it takes to hit f5.
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
So Trump almost succeeded in his efforts to inspire a coup against his democratically elected opponents, but it's the latter who represent the " crusade against the American project." Hmm... I am calling bollocks on this one.
Comments
It is Sotomayor for Harris.
The way he said ooh we've saved what you've written to use against you later.....!!!! when the reckoning comes
Luckily I don't think there will be any appetite for this. I sincerely hope there isn't.
"I hesitate to say it but I will BDS We do not know how the future pans out, but I did not need to check who the author was of this piece"
"BDS is a serious and acute condition"
All within the last week.
Drakeford's comments that he was going to slow the pace of vaccinations may just have ended his chance of remaining in power
And my 81 year old wife still awaits her vaccination
Good to see Mike Pence and his wife recieved a good reception by the people attending,Just watching it live on CNN.
Especially after the mob two weeks ago were threatening to hang him.
One does sometimes dump old paper MSS (albeit with a copy saved on disc) but published papers are ineradicable.
Harris 4.1
Biden 6.2
Trump 12.5
Biden swear in 4.44
Biden speech 4.48
Nurse turned up at their door shortly after texting.
Seems efficient and made sense to do them both on one visit.
Now we can do a third of a million a day, lets see it push on ASAP to half a million in a day.
So we get good figures Wednesday to Sunday and dire ones on Monday / Tuesday that people then spend Tuesday night / Wednesday morning complaining about because they think it's Monday's vaccinations when it's actually Sunday's.
And that was true both last week and this week and will probably be true next Tuesday as well
It's not true to say that you're either 100% immune, or 0% - everyone will develop some kind of immune response. Which is perhaps why, for example, AZN didn't see any serious cases is the vaccine arm of their clinical trial - and probably also why viruses persist in the general population, but become less virulent.
And still lots of uncertainties with Covid. We don't know if it will fairly rapidly (thanks to mass vaccination) become a non-virulent endemic virus like the other common cold coronaviruses, or if we're going to have to continue develop vaccines against nasty mutations for some time.
Lockdown and vaccine perhaps squishing this quicker than expected. Hopefully having NHS staff vaccinated will alone make a major difference to R.
But hypocrites like Big G need calling out on it.
"We're allll right, we're alllll right"
>500k in weekdays in final weeks will easily see it home.
So would be a 1962 increase and 1820 decrease potentially?
I think sitting in minus 4 degrees for several hours isn't the best for a 96 year old, even before Covid-19.
Plus he's had a series of falls in the last few years.
However, I am very emotional as a member of my family who has PTSD, following earthquake rescue, is about to undergo Electroconvulsive therapy
Maybe we all need to be careful and I most certainly will
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/01/20/joe-biden-and-the-crisis-of-the-new-world/
I always tell my colleagues You'll never change anyone's mind. If someone doesn't like it, move on, don't waste your time.
It's not really true, but it's good time management.
I wonder what that was all about.
Today
Yesterday
From cases
From hospitalisations