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Sturgeon blocks Trump’s reported plan to be in Scotland on Inauguration Day – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
    ydoethur said:

    Are we quite sure Donald Trump has left the Democrats? I mean, it looks as though he's locked in a Dem hegemony for the foreseeable by making the Republicans totally toxic.

    :lol: Though to be fair Stacey Abrahams has been working for years to make Georgie Democrat with massive pushes on voter registration and so on.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,396

    eek said:

    I wonder if the GOP would have won if Mitch hadn’t blocked the stimulus cheques?

    Yep - after all Biden made a point of repeating it on Monday.

    But I called it completely correct by the looks of it - Republicans didn't bother to vote (for which blame Trump) and the Democrats did.

    It's also very close as I said it would be so - which was why I didn't bet.
    That does slightly cut both ways with Trump. He's not wrong to say Republicans do worse when he's not on the ballot. Same applied in 2018, where toddler tantrums over election fraud weren't an issue. As he says, "Ratings, dear boy, RATINGS" (or words to that effect).

    He can also say "told you so" on $2000. And with some force.

    I do agree that the GOP need to unhitch their wagon from the Trump train, but he does deliver in the sense Republicans do better when he's on the ballot (which clearly he can't be for all elections).
    The problem for the GOP is that they lose even when Trump is on the ballot. Just by less.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    Ossoff's lead is now larger than Biden's.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,396

    Gaussian said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
    No. Perdue was elected to a six year term which has now expired, so his seat is vacant. But Loeffler was appointed to serve until the vacancy is filled, so sits until Warnock is sworn in.
    Can the GOP play some games by electing McConnell the leader whilst they still have a 50-48 advantage?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    edited January 2021
    I'm glad that swing voters voted to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.
  • Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    They're starting to reacg the mildly pro Dem stuff in DeKalb

    https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1346727504808189952?s=19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    Lets hope they enact some constitutional reform, because the leader of the democratic free world has been a nutcase for the last four years and has shown how a US coup could easily be engineered if one party controlled both houses.

    They need a system that no longer assumes the people in the game are all 18th century gentleman farmers who actually believe in democracy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021

    Ossoff's lead is now larger than Biden's.

    Given the counties left to report it will be a surprise if he doesn't win from here.

    Mitch McConnell has officially soiled himself at this thought.

    'It's not just that you've lost the majority, Senator. It's that you've now got to face Ossoff.'
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,396

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    Yes. I really don't get why his seen as some sort of seer on here. His method is simply to predict a slightly more right-wing outcome than the polls suggest. Worked in 2016 when there were polling errors in favour of right-wing candidate but certainly not this year.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Gaussian said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
    No. Perdue was elected to a six year term which has now expired, so his seat is vacant. But Loeffler was appointed to serve until the vacancy is filled, so sits until Warnock is sworn in.
    Can the GOP play some games by electing McConnell the leader whilst they still have a 50-48 advantage?
    Some quick judicial appointments maybe?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Gaussian said:

    Gaussian said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
    No. Perdue was elected to a six year term which has now expired, so his seat is vacant. But Loeffler was appointed to serve until the vacancy is filled, so sits until Warnock is sworn in.
    Can the GOP play some games by electing McConnell the leader whilst they still have a 50-48 advantage?
    Some quick judicial appointments maybe?
    Trump for the Supreme Court?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited January 2021

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    Lets hope they enact some constitutional reform, because the leader of the democratic free world has been a nutcase for the last four years and has shown how a US coup could easily be engineered if one party controlled both houses.

    They need a system that no longer assumes the people in the game are all 18th century gentleman farmers who actually believe in democracy.
    Changing the constitution requires super majorities in various places. The current polarisation of American politics would block any attempt.

    The significance of the Democrats taking the Senate is that McConnell can no longer block everything.

    Look for a zillion appointments to be put through, complete with Republicans whining that they are only being voted for on party lines. Suck it up, losers.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,396

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    Lets hope they enact some constitutional reform, because the leader of the democratic free world has been a nutcase for the last four years and has shown how a US coup could easily be engineered if one party controlled both houses.

    They need a system that no longer assumes the people in the game are all 18th century gentleman farmers who actually believe in democracy.
    They can't change the constitution, at least not without the support of a large chunk of the Republican party.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    Yes. I really don't get why his seen as some sort of seer on here. His method is simply to predict a slightly more right-wing outcome than the polls suggest. Worked in 2016 when there were polling errors in favour of right-wing candidate but certainly not this year.
    Like all pundit predictors the trick is to memory hole his wrong predictions. That way he is always accurate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
    Some Georgia counties to resume counting in the morning
    It may be a while before we know the final result if the Ossoff-Perdue race, as several key counties in Georgia have stopped counting votes for the night.

    Telegraph.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Wise words from Stacey Abrams here, I think progressives everywhere can take note including Labour. For those who don't follow GA politics in any detail, Abrams really is the reason the Dems now control the US Senate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/04/stacey-abrams-explains-how-win/?outputType=amp
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    I wasn't that wrong, I said it would be a narrow Biden win or a narrow Trump win in the end it was the former but with Trump still holding Ohio and Florida, the first losing candidate to do since Nixon in 1960 when many on here were predicting a Biden landslide.

    In the Senate races in Georgia it still remains too close to call in the Perdue and Ossoff race even if Warnock won and I expect may go to a recount.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    I've sparred with him too and he's been proved wrong on this.

    But I don't like the crowing. At least he makes a testable prediction. Quite a few people (myself included sometimes) tend to say, "it all depends and could go either way". That's fine, but it isn't falsifiable... you can never really be wrong.

    I criticise 538 on this basis a bit. I get what they are doing and why as a Bayesian... but it does mean they can always say, "um, actually, we said there was an 18.2 percent chance of this so technically we weren't wrong".

    EDIT - I see he's now doing a 538 himself down thread. That's a shame as I think it's better to put your hands up at this stage - no disgrace in getting a call wrong as none of us is Nostradamus (and nor was Nostradamus to be fair).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    Yes. I really don't get why his seen as some sort of seer on here. His method is simply to predict a slightly more right-wing outcome than the polls suggest. Worked in 2016 when there were polling errors in favour of right-wing candidate but certainly not this year.
    Not always true, I predicted Trudeau would be re elected for example when not every poll had that as the case.

    Though anyway I could not give a toss what anyone thinks about me or my predictions on here anyway, I rarely start bets personally and I come here mainly to give my views and the conservative case, I have never pretended to be an all knowing oracle
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Looks like ScotGov policy to omit “Oxford”:

    https://twitter.com/iainmackay8/status/1346588707084709890?s=21
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    I see Jon Ossoff has a MSc from the London School of Economics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    The senate is now Dem controlled, but it's not a left wing senate by any stretch with Manchin basically having the deciding vote on everything now
  • The presumed winners are still available at 1.01 and 1.02 (but fluctuating) on Betfair who will settle once the last votes have trickled in and the children have demolished their Easter eggs, if not sooner.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    I wasn't that wrong, I said it would be a narrow Biden win or a narrow Trump win in the end it was the former but with Trump still holding Ohio and Florida.

    In the Senate races in Georgia it still remains too close to call in the Perdue and Ossoff race even if Warnock won
    "Too close to call"


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418

    Looks like ScotGov policy to omit “Oxford”:

    https://twitter.com/iainmackay8/status/1346588707084709890?s=21


    F*ck me. Of all the things to get worked up over. This ranks even more pathetic than flags.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited January 2021

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    History suggests that, even with control of the WH, House and Senate, nothing particularly radical happens in the first couple of years of a new President’s term.

    Neither Trump nor Obama achieved much for their first two years, I’d be betting on that continuing from 2021 until 2023.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    His aren't the only posts that don't age well....



    As I keep saying, Trump is a shoo-in.

    I can't remember a more dead cert re-election except perhaps Ronald Reagan although Reagan was in more trouble than Trump at this stage.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Given McConnell's tactics in removing any remaining super majority requirements in the Senate, ramming Peurto Rica and DC through as states on a 50-50 + Harris tie breaker would be funny.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    For the purposes of the Dems securing two Senators and however many electoral votes for the next 50 years I think they dearly do hope it goes to a casting vote.

    Would be devastating for the GOP in Florida too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Pulpstar said:

    The senate is now Dem controlled, but it's not a left wing senate by any stretch with Manchin basically having the deciding vote on everything now

    Schumer with the gavel is massive though !
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    I see Jon Ossoff has a MSc from the London School of Economics.

    Must be a great guy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    I've sparred with him too and he's been proved wrong on this.

    But I don't like the crowing. At least he makes a testable prediction. Quite a few people (myself included sometimes) tend to say, "it all depends and could go either way". That's fine, but it isn't falsifiable... you can never really be wrong.

    I criticise 538 on this basis a bit. I get what they are doing and why as a Bayesian... but it does mean they can always say, "um, actually, we said there was an 18.2 percent chance of this so technically we weren't wrong".

    EDIT - I see he's now doing a 538 himself down thread. That's a shame as I think it's better to put your hands up at this stage - no disgrace in getting a call wrong as none of us is Nostradamus (and nor was Nostradamus to be fair).
    Fair comment. I did have money on the Dems winning both of these (edit/ although not much), and on Biden winning, and on the Tories winning in 2019. But I didn't have money on Bozo becoming PM, quite the opposite (although earlier laying of JRM saved too much embarrassment). All of us win some and lose some - which is your point.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    For the purposes of the Dems securing two Senators and however many electoral votes for the next 50 years I think they dearly do hope it goes to a casting vote.

    Would be devastating for the GOP in Florida too.
    Why would it be devastating for the GOP in Florida?

    And is there any indication that Dems are even considering admitting Pueto Rico as a state?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Looks like ScotGov policy to omit “Oxford”:

    https://twitter.com/iainmackay8/status/1346588707084709890?s=21


    F*ck me. Of all the things to get worked up over. This ranks even more pathetic than flags.
    You don't think branding is important? That's outrageous! Some of my best friends have given the best years of their life to branding!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Yes, even if the Democrats do win both Georgia seats the Senate will still only be 50-50, it was a 57-41 Democratic majority when Obama took office in 2009 and the GOP had a 52-46 Senate majority when Trump took office in 2017.

    The House also only has a Democratic majority of 10, compared to a GOP House majority of 47 when Trump took office in 2017 or a Democratic House majority of 79 when Obama took office in 2009, confirming again this was no Democratic wave and no Democratic landslide like 2008 but still a relatively close election in a divided nation. In the 2010 midterms the Democrats then lost the House as the GOP lost the House also in the 2018 midterms, despite bigger majorities than the Democrats have now.

    Biden would do well to remember that after he takes the oath of office on 20th January and he will need to work with moderates in Congress like Manchin, Collins and Romney to get any legislation through
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    Yes. I really don't get why his seen as some sort of seer on here. His method is simply to predict a slightly more right-wing outcome than the polls suggest. Worked in 2016 when there were polling errors in favour of right-wing candidate but certainly not this year.
    Not always true, I predicted Trudeau would be re elected for example when not every poll had that as the case.

    Though anyway I could not give a toss what anyone thinks about me or my predictions on here anyway, I rarely start bets personally and I come here mainly to give my views and the conservative case, I have never pretended to be an all knowing oracle
    If you didn't care you wouldn't post on here. Indeed you would not have responded to Mr/Ms Not on Fire's post with this one. Nearly everyone, especially those who post on social media or message boards, cares what their peers (in this case fellow PB'ers) think of them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    For the purposes of the Dems securing two Senators and however many electoral votes for the next 50 years I think they dearly do hope it goes to a casting vote.

    Would be devastating for the GOP in Florida too.
    Rubio will vote for PR statehood I think
  • ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    At the very least Marco Rubio (R) is in favour PR Statehood so shouldn't require the casting vote. It's actually GOP policy to recognise PR self determination and to support statehood for them.

    Mitch wouldn't allow a vote though, despite that.
  • Gaussian said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
    No. Perdue was elected to a six year term which has now expired, so his seat is vacant. But Loeffler was appointed to serve until the vacancy is filled, so sits until Warnock is sworn in.
    Can the GOP play some games by electing McConnell the leader whilst they still have a 50-48 advantage?
    No - I understand Senate majority leader isn't a choice of the Senate as a whole like Commons Speaker. McConnell is chosen as Republican leader by fellow Republicans and Schumer by Democrats. He automatically ceases to be majority leader when Dems have 50 Senators and VP as now seems likely on 20th.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    HYUFD said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Yes, even if the Democrats do win both Georgia seats the Senate will still only be 50-50, it was a 57-41 Democratic majority when Obama took office in 2009 and the GOP had a 52-46 Senate majority when Trump took office in 2017.

    The House also only has a Democratic majority of 10, compared to a GOP House majority of 47 when Trump took office in 2017 or a Democratic House majority of 79 when Obama took office in 2009, confirming again this was no Democratic wave and no Democratic landslide but still a relatively close election in a divided nation.

    Biden would do well to remember that after he takes the oath of office on 20th January and he will need to work with moderates in Congress like Manchin, Collins and Romney to get any legislation through
    You're arguing with yourself as nobody is claiming this was some kind of "blue wave" or that Biden wont have to work with moderates such as Manchin, Collins, and Romney. Remember Biden is a moderate himself who's personally good friends with Mitch McConnell!

    You are literally stating the obvious.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993
    ydoethur said:

    Ossoff's lead is now larger than Biden's.

    Given the counties left to report it will be a surprise if he doesn't win from here.

    Mitch McConnell has officially soiled himself at this thought.

    'It's not just that you've lost the majority, Senator. It's that you've now got to face Ossoff.'
    For maximum bantz, the Democrats should elect Ossof as the new Senate Majority Leader.
  • Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    For the purposes of the Dems securing two Senators and however many electoral votes for the next 50 years I think they dearly do hope it goes to a casting vote.

    Would be devastating for the GOP in Florida too.
    Which is why Marco Rubio would never vote against.

    This oddly if it goes through could do so on a supermajority as the GOP accept the inevitable and play politics by voting Yes.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    edited January 2021
    Apropos of nothing, the coldest temperature ever recorded in Spain was recorded very early this morning in Catalonia's High Pyrenees ...
    https://twitter.com/P4Estacions/status/1346621451114323968
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    North Korea seems to be fairly quiet... apart from murderous feuds inside their monarchy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
    That is rubbish, AOC et al are left of Starmer, they would certainly never be in Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, they are closer to Corbyn than Boris
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    edited January 2021
    Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    There does seem to have been work going on quietly in the background to ensure several countries have a better relationship with Israel. But set against that, he ends his Presidency with Iran recommencing enriching of uranium, which ultimately may be the darkest cloud.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    DC was originally carved out of parts of Virginia and Maryland, but the Virginia part was given back in 1846, so what remains is only the part originally donated to the Federal Government by Maryland. Always struck me as odd that Maryland doesn't get first refusal to get its bit back. Even by the standards of smaller states DC would be a very tiny state.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    He did something like double the number of Drone strikes Obama did in 8 years in just 2.

    And then he got rid of the requirement it report civilian casualties.
  • Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    For the purposes of the Dems securing two Senators and however many electoral votes for the next 50 years I think they dearly do hope it goes to a casting vote.

    Would be devastating for the GOP in Florida too.
    Why would it be devastating for the GOP in Florida?

    And is there any indication that Dems are even considering admitting Pueto Rico as a state?
    Yes there is. It's certainly Democrat policy. I believe it's Republican policy too, although McConnell would never allow the necessary votes as majority leader, for obvious reasons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    His aren't the only posts that don't age well....



    As I keep saying, Trump is a shoo-in.

    I can't remember a more dead cert re-election except perhaps Ronald Reagan although Reagan was in more trouble than Trump at this stage.

    Pre-Covid though?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,396
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
    That is rubbish, AOC et al are left of Starmer, they would certainly never be in Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, they are closer to Corbyn than Boris
    AOC et al advocate for a US equivalent of the NHS and equivalent laws to UK on matters such as family leave and climate change targets - are those "extreme" positions?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    He did something like double the number of Drone strikes Obama did in 8 years in just 2.

    And then he got rid of the requirement it report civilian casualties.
    Obama started US interventions in Libya and Syria, arguably necessary to prevent a Gaddaffi massacre and stop Isis but Trump started no new US military interventions abroad and also began talks with Kim Jong Un
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388

    Apropos of nothing, the coldest temperature ever recoded in Spain was recorded very early this morning in Catalonia's High Pyrenees ...
    https://twitter.com/P4Estacions/status/1346621451114323968

    We really really don't need that over here now as we try and roll out vaccine.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    For the purposes of the Dems securing two Senators and however many electoral votes for the next 50 years I think they dearly do hope it goes to a casting vote.

    Would be devastating for the GOP in Florida too.
    Why would it be devastating for the GOP in Florida?

    And is there any indication that Dems are even considering admitting Pueto Rico as a state?
    Large Puerto Rican ex-pat population.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    At the very least Marco Rubio (R) is in favour PR Statehood so shouldn't require the casting vote. It's actually GOP policy to recognise PR self determination and to support statehood for them.

    Mitch wouldn't allow a vote though, despite that.
    It's also quite possible that the Senate seats for PR would split - one Dem and one Republican. The Republican argument for being in favour is get-ahead-of-the-wave....
  • HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
    That is rubbish, AOC et al are left of Starmer, they would certainly never be in Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, they are closer to Corbyn than Boris
    You're talking rubbish. The agenda will be set by Senator Manchin not AOC.

    Senator Manchin is closer to Boris.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Looks like ScotGov policy to omit “Oxford”:

    https://twitter.com/iainmackay8/status/1346588707084709890?s=21

    Presumably the St Andrews version is hot broth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Yes, even if the Democrats do win both Georgia seats the Senate will still only be 50-50, it was a 57-41 Democratic majority when Obama took office in 2009 and the GOP had a 52-46 Senate majority when Trump took office in 2017.

    The House also only has a Democratic majority of 10, compared to a GOP House majority of 47 when Trump took office in 2017 or a Democratic House majority of 79 when Obama took office in 2009, confirming again this was no Democratic wave and no Democratic landslide but still a relatively close election in a divided nation.

    Biden would do well to remember that after he takes the oath of office on 20th January and he will need to work with moderates in Congress like Manchin, Collins and Romney to get any legislation through
    You're arguing with yourself as nobody is claiming this was some kind of "blue wave" or that Biden wont have to work with moderates such as Manchin, Collins, and Romney. Remember Biden is a moderate himself who's personally good friends with Mitch McConnell!

    You are literally stating the obvious.
    There were plenty on here before election day predicting Biden would win a landslide and the Democrats would win in a wave election of 2008 proportions.

    I may not have been right but then neither were they either
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    First step act, Op warpspeed, commercial crew, CARES, Dow 30k, Moderna vax procurement, better run elections
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,502

    I'm glad that swing voters voted to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Or, conversely, now that we radical socialist atheists have seized power in the US, when can we expect Biden to start expropriating the rich and nationalising the oil industry? We were promised, Joe, don't let us down!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Roger said:

    Looks like ScotGov policy to omit “Oxford”:

    https://twitter.com/iainmackay8/status/1346588707084709890?s=21


    F*ck me. Of all the things to get worked up over. This ranks even more pathetic than flags.
    You don't think branding is important? That's outrageous! Some of my best friends have given the best years of their life to branding!!
    The Pfizer vaccine is branded as "Courageous" in the SwiftKey vaccine booking system.

    Not sure why. Perhaps because a 12 week gap is what in Yes Minister was called a "Courageous decision".

    https://youtu.be/ik8JT2S-kBE
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
    That is rubbish, AOC et al are left of Starmer, they would certainly never be in Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, they are closer to Corbyn than Boris
    Can you point to an AOC policy position that is to the left of Starmer? I admit that Starmer's policy positions are thin on the ground at the moment but you are making the assertion so must have examples.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Georgia has certainly changed. I worked in Hawaii with a PA who lived in Georgia. Her sister had married a black Englishman who she told me couldn't visit them because their neighbours wouldn't understand. So she would come to England regularly to visit them. I was quite angry with her being accepting of this so we got off to a bad start. This was 1998. It sounds unbelievable now.

    Look at this electoral change, a bit hard to say GA is blue...

    https://twitter.com/SidKhurana3607/status/1346723445359456258?s=19
    Most people in GA live in Atlanta and its suburbs. These maps are kind of useless
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Israel/Sunni islamic world normalisation of relations
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,418
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    DC was originally carved out of parts of Virginia and Maryland, but the Virginia part was given back in 1846, so what remains is only the part originally donated to the Federal Government by Maryland. Always struck me as odd that Maryland doesn't get first refusal to get its bit back. Even by the standards of smaller states DC would be a very tiny state.

    Maybe the GOP could strike a deal where Puerto Rico is admitted as a state as well as DC, but only if the DC suburbs of Virginia are carved into the new state of DC. That gives the GOP Virginia in exchange for the Democrats getting DC and (likely) Puerto Rico. Of course there's many obstacles to this head-in-the-clouds scenario.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
    That is rubbish, AOC et al are left of Starmer, they would certainly never be in Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, they are closer to Corbyn than Boris
    You're talking rubbish. The agenda will be set by Senator Manchin not AOC.

    Senator Manchin is closer to Boris.
    Manchin may but as even Chris Christie has said Manchin could even be a Republican too

    https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1346665316072517634?s=20
  • Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    Putin has had a very happy 4 or 5 years from a foreign policy perspective. He had Trump in the Whitehouse, a divisive referendum in UK leading to self harm to the UK and damage to the EU and Boris Johnson in No10. What next? The useful idiots of the SNP combined with the incompetence of Boris Johnson might deliver him the break up of the UK. He must be very pleased.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
    Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    To be fair he has put the needs/wants of the white working class rural, mid western left behinds and hill folk on the electoral map. I doubt a candidate will ignore them again in the way Hillary did last time around.

    "White working class" by Joan Williams should be essential reading for any Dem who wants to run in 2024.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
    That is rubbish, AOC et al are left of Starmer, they would certainly never be in Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, they are closer to Corbyn than Boris
    AOC et al advocate for a US equivalent of the NHS and equivalent laws to UK on matters such as family leave and climate change targets - are those "extreme" positions?
    AOC pushes the same woke, higher taxes on the rich, anti western heritage agenda of Corbynites
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    Apropos of nothing, the coldest temperature ever recoded in Spain was recorded very early this morning in Catalonia's High Pyrenees ...
    https://twitter.com/P4Estacions/status/1346621451114323968

    We really really don't need that over here now as we try and roll out vaccine.
    Set against that, another Beast from the East would keep people at home more effectively than any Government-legislated lock-down....
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,396
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    For the purposes of the Dems securing two Senators and however many electoral votes for the next 50 years I think they dearly do hope it goes to a casting vote.

    Would be devastating for the GOP in Florida too.
    If PR becomes a state, watch out for the new states of East and West Dakota...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    Yes. I really don't get why his seen as some sort of seer on here. His method is simply to predict a slightly more right-wing outcome than the polls suggest. Worked in 2016 when there were polling errors in favour of right-wing candidate but certainly not this year.
    Not always true, I predicted Trudeau would be re elected for example when not every poll had that as the case.

    Though anyway I could not give a toss what anyone thinks about me or my predictions on here anyway, I rarely start bets personally and I come here mainly to give my views and the conservative case, I have never pretended to be an all knowing oracle
    If you didn't care you wouldn't post on here. Indeed you would not have responded to Mr/Ms Not on Fire's post with this one. Nearly everyone, especially those who post on social media or message boards, cares what their peers (in this case fellow PB'ers) think of them.
    Yes but that is why an element of courtesy and playibg the ball rather than the man all the time makes for a more pleasant experience all round.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,396

    Gaussian said:

    So today Kelly Loefflee, a politician who has clearly lost re-election, gets to vote to overturn another election her party clearly lost over two months ago. The US system is truly bizarre.

    I think the seats are vacant from Jan 3 until the new senators are sworn in.
    No. Perdue was elected to a six year term which has now expired, so his seat is vacant. But Loeffler was appointed to serve until the vacancy is filled, so sits until Warnock is sworn in.
    Can the GOP play some games by electing McConnell the leader whilst they still have a 50-48 advantage?
    No - I understand Senate majority leader isn't a choice of the Senate as a whole like Commons Speaker. McConnell is chosen as Republican leader by fellow Republicans and Schumer by Democrats. He automatically ceases to be majority leader when Dems have 50 Senators and VP as now seems likely on 20th.
    Thanks. Such a bizarre system how people can still cast meaningful votes weeks after they have clearly lost an election. There isn't much to be fond of in the UK system but I do like our "election on Thursday, losers out on Friday (2010 excepted) system"
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    ydoethur said:

    Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Joe 'nothing will fundamentally change' Biden needs to avoid chasing Utopian ideals?

    Job already done.

    Edit - it's always been a simple majority of the Senate for admission to Statehood, not a supermajority. Would obviously be better not to go through on a casting vote, though.
    At the very least Marco Rubio (R) is in favour PR Statehood so shouldn't require the casting vote. It's actually GOP policy to recognise PR self determination and to support statehood for them.

    Mitch wouldn't allow a vote though, despite that.
    Only an insane ideologically suicidal madman unconcerned with the long-term damage they would do to their party would vote Nay of PR statehood. So that's about a third of the GOP Senate caucus as potential Nays.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    I wasn't that wrong, I said it would be a narrow Biden win or a narrow Trump win in the end it was the former but with Trump still holding Ohio and Florida.

    In the Senate races in Georgia it still remains too close to call in the Perdue and Ossoff race even if Warnock won
    "Too close to call"


    Currently it is Ossoff 50.1% and Perdue 49.9% with 98% in, that is recount territory on any definition.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/georgia/senate-runoff?iid=politics_election_ticker
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The establishment of dimlomatic relations between Israel and several Gulf states ranks high on the list, as does a withdrawal of American forces stationed abroad.
  • Fantastic news in Georgia to wake up to.

    Next step: recognise Puerto Rico as a State.

    That may well be on. It is suprisingly easy to add new states to the Union - just a majority vote in the House and Senate. Probably needs 60 senate votes though.

    Given the narrowness of their majorities, the Democrats need to use the next two years very wisely as it seems highly likely they will lose the House in 2022. They shouldn't waste time chasing utopian left-wing ideals that stand no chance of getting past the likes of Manchin.
    Given McConnell's tactics in removing any remaining super majority requirements in the Senate, ramming Peurto Rica and DC through as states on a 50-50 + Harris tie breaker would be funny.
    I don't think a Puerto Rico statehood vote would be at all close. There's nothing to be gained by opposing it on principle when you're not able to block it (no constituency who'd say "bloody well done to Senator Boggins for voting against"). McConnell simply wouldn't allow a vote as it's very likely two Democrat Senators. But if it's happening anyway, Republicans would make a virtue of necessity by supporting it.
  • Meanwhile in Brixham, leading Brexiteer fisherman realises he is "stuffed". Perhaps instead of listing all the factual reasons why his business is now stuffed he instead should read the Institute of Government report which will explain in a nice fact-free way why he is now free.
    https://twitter.com/bbcmartynoates/status/1346213229027065856
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    Space Force was a worthy notion that's properly funded with clearly serious intent. I'm not sure how much of that was him though. It seems to have been more of an Electric Pence project.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    You know, it could also be that voters in Georgia have rather liked what they have seen and heard from Joe Biden since he won the Presidential election. The Democrats may now have a real opportunity as the GOP is likely to go to war with itself for the next few years.

    A commentator on CNN - a democrat - said it would be still very difficult to get the more extreme agenda of the left-wing of the Democratic party through the Senate as they would need a 60/40 majority. I think thar is a useful tool for Biden to plot a centrist course.
    An agenda so extreme, that approaches the middle of the UK Conservative party. From the right.
    That is rubbish, AOC et al are left of Starmer, they would certainly never be in Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, they are closer to Corbyn than Boris
    Can you point to an AOC policy position that is to the left of Starmer? I admit that Starmer's policy positions are thin on the ground at the moment but you are making the assertion so must have examples.
    AOC wants a 70% top rate of income tax, Starmer does not for one

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/08/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-70-percent-tax-rich
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    This morning I seem to be liking both sides of an argument. I'm easily manipulated.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Apropos of nothing, the coldest temperature ever recorded in Spain was recorded very early this morning in Catalonia's High Pyrenees ...
    https://twitter.com/P4Estacions/status/1346621451114323968

    The last couple of weeks have been chilly even here on the coast - mornings just above freezibng and maximums around 15 degrees - and we have 3 days of rain coming our way - almost unheard of!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    I wasn't that wrong, I said it would be a narrow Biden win or a narrow Trump win in the end it was the former but with Trump still holding Ohio and Florida.

    In the Senate races in Georgia it still remains too close to call in the Perdue and Ossoff race even if Warnock won
    "Too close to call"


    Currently it is Ossoff 50.1% and Perdue 49.9% with 98% in

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/georgia/senate-runoff?iid=politics_election_ticker
    And the remaining votes are from overwhelmingly D areas. Give it up.
  • felix said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    Yes. I really don't get why his seen as some sort of seer on here. His method is simply to predict a slightly more right-wing outcome than the polls suggest. Worked in 2016 when there were polling errors in favour of right-wing candidate but certainly not this year.
    Not always true, I predicted Trudeau would be re elected for example when not every poll had that as the case.

    Though anyway I could not give a toss what anyone thinks about me or my predictions on here anyway, I rarely start bets personally and I come here mainly to give my views and the conservative case, I have never pretended to be an all knowing oracle
    If you didn't care you wouldn't post on here. Indeed you would not have responded to Mr/Ms Not on Fire's post with this one. Nearly everyone, especially those who post on social media or message boards, cares what their peers (in this case fellow PB'ers) think of them.
    Yes but that is why an element of courtesy and playibg the ball rather than the man all the time makes for a more pleasant experience all round.
    I think that is pertinent with respect to HYUFD as he is always courteous to others, though I rather wish he would state his predictions as opinions rather than certainties; i.e: "IMO xyz might happen" rather than "this will happen"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    No (new, showboating, futile) foreign wars?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    Foxy said:

    Does Donald Trump have ANY positive legacy to look back on after four years, other than preventing Hillary Clinton becoming President?

    The lack of foreign wars is probably the main one. Mostly due to outsourcing foreign policy to Putin, but probably counts as a success.
    Putin has had a very happy 4 or 5 years from a foreign policy perspective. He had Trump in the Whitehouse, a divisive referendum in UK leading to self harm to the UK and damage to the EU and Boris Johnson in No10. What next? The useful idiots of the SNP combined with the incompetence of Boris Johnson might deliver him the break up of the UK. He must be very pleased.
    Even if Boris does not go as far as Beijing is today in mass arrests of anti Beijing activists and politicians he will not allow the UK to breakup whatever happens at Holyrood later this year
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825

    This is a stunning victory by the Democrats as they never normally perform well in runoffs. They will have control of both houses and the Presidency. It's an amazing turnaround.

    Mitch McConnell. Lolz.

    If it works out the only question is what job Stacey Abrahms can get to work the same magic elsewhere.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If a school is demanding admin staff come into work rather than work from home at the mo, despite no pupils attending for the foreseeable future, is that unreasonable?
  • Here is the point. The government distilled the final Brexit negotiation down to a battle for freedom - specifically the freedom to fish our waters and get rid of foreigners polluting our natural bodily fluids oceans.

    The problem is that the UK doesn't exist in bizarro world where we are rule makers and not rule takers. For that to be true we would be the ones imposing rules with everyone else meekly doing what we tell them to. Apparently the WTO was to be the mechanism where we would do so.

    And yet here we are. We have imposed rules so daft that there has been a collapse in cross border trade, with a growing list of companies simply unwilling or unable to comply with the cost and complexity of what we have done. In fishing we managed to not understand the difference between the EU and EFTA, thinking that an EU fishing deal gives us rights to fish in EFTA waters.

    Its the omnishambles Brexit.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2021
    Freggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The latest polling suggests the GOP will hold the Georgia Senate seats in the run off and I agree.

    Biden was not elected on the back of a Democratic landslide to sweep the US to the left, he was elected purely to beat Trump and Georgia swing voters having voted Biden to beat the incumbent President will now vote GOP to ensure the woke, far left does not get too much power and the Senate stays GOP.

    Hence Biden will be the first incoming President not to take office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress since Bush Snr in 1989. That would be about right, US voters want him to compromise with the GOP and to reduce the polarisation

    Lol

    Given that HYUFD is repeatedly revisionist about his predictions this is a useful reminder of how wrong he has been on almost everything to do with United States politics this past year.
    I wasn't that wrong, I said it would be a narrow Biden win or a narrow Trump win in the end it was the former but with Trump still holding Ohio and Florida.

    In the Senate races in Georgia it still remains too close to call in the Perdue and Ossoff race even if Warnock won
    "Too close to call"


    Currently it is Ossoff 50.1% and Perdue 49.9% with 98% in

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/georgia/senate-runoff?iid=politics_election_ticker
    And the remaining votes are from overwhelmingly D areas. Give it up.
    Le Pen can still win!

    EDIT: Disclaimer - I have no idea how much chance there is for this race to swing.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    See the royal mint has created a coin commerating H G Wells with a Martian on it with 4 legs. This is the important issue of the day!

    I mean how? Really how did that get past QA?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    edited January 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Are we quite sure Donald Trump has left the Democrats? I mean, it looks as though he's locked in a Dem hegemony for the foreseeable by making the Republicans totally toxic.

    Only the judicial appointments prove otherwise
  • Looks like ScotGov policy to omit “Oxford”:

    https://twitter.com/iainmackay8/status/1346588707084709890?s=21

    Presumably for the same reason that "BioNTech" is omitted from "BioNTech/Pfizer" in the UK.
This discussion has been closed.