Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?
Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?
Don't quote me on this, but my guess is that the GOP is overperforming compared to a 50:50 baseline but behind the 'new baseline' set by the Dems overperforming on earlier ballots. Essentially, the goalposts move as the Dems overperform but the model expectations don't show that.
Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?
I think they have the heading the wrong way round. It seems to be a consistent pattern. EDIT: I take that back on latest Warnock move. I don't know what is going on in their model. EDIT: I think Quincel has got it.
Looking just at the 'Shift from Nov.' tab (only shows for counties that are have/nearly finished voting) the shift looks big enough for both Democrats unless there is a shift towards Republicans in the Urban/Suburban areas compared to November.
Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?
Because Dem predicted lead would have increased even more IF the GOP was NOT doing a bit better than expected?
Looking just at the 'Shift from Nov.' tab (only shows for counties that are have/nearly finished voting) the shift looks big enough for both Democrats unless there is a shift towards Republicans in the Urban/Suburban areas compared to November.
THAT is the $64 question tonight - wither the burbs?
Quirk of the NYT updates - they sometimes show Republicans doing better than expected but the Democrat predicted lead (not just the win probability) increasing. Why?
Don't quote me on this, but my guess is that the GOP is overperforming compared to a 50:50 baseline but behind the 'new baseline' set by the Dems overperforming on earlier ballots. Essentially, the goalposts move as the Dems overperform but the model expectations don't show that.
Just re-read this and I'm really unclear. What I mean is:
"Well done GOP, you won those election day ballots by 22% and we only expected you to win them by 20%. But...the Dems won a load of mail ballots by 45% when we only expected a 40% win, so you actually had to win those election day ballots by 23% to keep up."
The question isn't 'What will Alex Jones say?', but 'Who will keep listening?'. Very likely that world continues whipping up the supporters, but I expect at least some level of decline in attention. The mainstream media won't cover them as much, which will make them less relevant and prominent.
Perdue is going to feel a bit aggrieved seeing as in any other state (I think !) he'd have been elected on the night . He might still do it, looks like a good amount of split ticketing in his favour (~1 in 180 voters isn't bad for such an invariant electorate)
NYT is reporting that in Fulton Co (Atlanta) 82% of "estimated votes" is reported. Do NOT think this included absentees, but don't really know. It IS a much higher % than statewide which is at 41% of estimated
Ossoff currently has 272,151 votes in from Fulton County which includes Atlanta, Biden got 381,144 votes from Fulton in November so it seems most of the Atlanta votes are now in
Don't forget DeKalb, which has sightly fewer votes, but was more heavily Democratic.
Perdue is going to feel a bit aggrieved seeing as in any other state (I think !) he'd have been elected on the night . He might still do it, looks like a good amount of split ticketing in his favour (~1 in 180 voters isn't bad for such an invariant electorate)
Several other states have a similar rule, or (California and Louisiana) “jungle” primaries where all candidates for all parties run en masse in a primary with the top two only going to the general election. Maine has AV (called “ranked choice” or “instant runoff” voting here) and I think some other states may be adopting it.
Perdue is going to feel a bit aggrieved seeing as in any other state (I think !) he'd have been elected on the night . He might still do it, looks like a good amount of split ticketing in his favour (~1 in 180 voters isn't bad for such an invariant electorate)
Several other states have a similar rule, or (California and Louisiana) “jungle” primaries where all candidates for all parties run en masse in a primary with the top two only going to the general election. Maine has AV (called “ranked choice” or “instant runoff” voting here) and I think some other states may be adopting it.
Sure, but Purdue would likely have won without the libertarian candidate - he just didn't quite clear 50%.
You'd have thought overseas & military would slightly favour the Dems ?
Overseas non-military, yes, but I think usually a lot of overseas votes are military. That’s a bit more nuanced: military people obviously trend conservative overall but Trump has not exactly endeared himself to them and I doubt his posturing since November has boosted the military vote for the Republicans any.
It will shortly be an hour since the last recorded batch of votes which was more favourable to the republicans than forecast based on location and method of vote.
Of the last 16 batches, representing over a million votes, 14 were better for the Democrats, and two were bang on. Feels like that needs to turn around fast if they are to save one, let alone two, seats.
That said, the NYT forecasts for ballots remaining differ markedly from the votes counted so far.
It will shortly be an hour since the last recorded batch of votes which was more favourable to the republicans than forecast based on location and method of vote.
Of the last 16 batches, representing over a million votes, 14 were better for the Democrats, and two were bang on. Feels like that needs to turn around fast if they are to save one, let alone two, seats.
That said, the NYT forecasts for ballots remaining differ markedly from the votes counted so far.
Reports seem to be turnout down in the Red leaning counties, whereas Atlanta and Dem leaning suburbs has held up.
Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
The problem is that lies spread far more quickly than the truth, which Trump has exploited
Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
The problem is that lies spread far more quickly than the truth, which Trump has exploited
We have to trust people to have common sense in judging what is true or not, not treat them like little children who constantly need guidance.
Get rid of them altogether, regardless of who or what is being posted. Paternalistic nonsense that's reminiscent of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages.
The problem is that lies spread far more quickly than the truth, which Trump has exploited
We have to trust people to have common sense in judging what is true or not, not treat them like little children who constantly need guidance.
Sadly we can’t trust them, as the large numbers voting for Trump show
On topic, it's really irresponsible for US allies who could be keeping Trump busy and entertained at any point until the formal transfer off power to not be doing that. The Americans fought in two world wars to keep Europe safe, I really don't think a couple of days of red-carpet baby-sitting is too much to ask.
Maybe the real vaccination race is for the first company to get approval who can also actually produce their thing in extremely large numbers extremely quickly.
The government has been boasting about having millions ready to go for weeks. Now it emerges that it is short.
Pathetic.
Not receiving delivery is one thing that cannot be laid at their door, surely?
I tried to have that conversation with Anabobazina a day or two ago. Save your breath. They are just posting the same complaints over and over now.
--AS
Except the government have allowed the impression to develop that they're done a brilliant shopping job and the UK is going to knock Brer Virus out of the park in time for us to all go and enjoy the Boat Race.
Meanwhile, our foolish neighbours will look on sadly and unvaccinated.
It was always going to be more complicated than that, but the impression has been allowed to develop.
So if it doesn't happen, the government is back in "Live by the sword, die by the sword" territory
Yes, I agree that the government has got the messaging wrong. Consistently so (except perhaps on testing there they were ridiculed for over-promising and actually pretty much got there).
I can't really understand why they keep making that mistake. It's clearly bad politics and bad tactics, but they keep falling into the same trap over and trap. It's pretty tragic really.
--AS
But saying stuff like this is what Boris always does. It's up there with "Of course I'll respect you in the morning."
It's brilliant until the victims realise they've been taken for a ride. And he'll keep doing it for as long as he isn't punished for it.
What I find odd is that it's only brilliant in the short term. Long term it's clearly bad strategy: I think the public know they've been conned and trust less because of it. My mother, for example, is not interested in politics but she twigged to this modus operandi ages ago.
I was trying to figure this out. Either it's just because they think he can get away with it, that the public won't remember the broken promises. Or (and I find this possibility much more frightening) that those high up in government simply cannot accept the situation and are in denial about it because it's too painful to them, with nobody strong enough to stand up and force them to confront reality. It makes me realize that I'd preferred to be lied to by a devious government than to have a delusional one tell me honestly what they think...
--AS
Being lied to by a delusional government is worst of all, sadly.
CNN - Votes are still coming in from largely Democratic counties, Georgia election official says
Gabriel Sterling, the voting systems implementation manager, just delivered what he said would be the final briefing from the Georgia secretary of state’s office for the night.
Sterling said overall, it looks like they have about 27,600 or so advance votes to come in. About 19,000 will come in from DeKalb County and about 7,000 from Coffee County. He added that there will be a hodgepodge of other votes in other locations.
“In terms of the amount of votes that are potentially out there are coming from largely Democratic counties, there are some Republican counties – Floyd, Forsyth, Appling – but they are smaller in comparison to DeKalb's, Gwinnett's, Cobb's and Fulton's,” Sterling said. “That tells you that the outstanding will likely be leaning Democrat at best.”
On topic, LOL at Nippy. Are airports and borders reserved issues, as she claimed on Monday, or devolved issues, as she claims on Tuesday? She can’t have it both ways.
Comments
Ossoff much closer but still slight favorite
EDIT: I take that back on latest Warnock move. I don't know what is going on in their model.
EDIT: I think Quincel has got it.
Perdue/Ossoff looks very tight indeed
Betfair now at 1.33 for Democrats to win both seats.
Ossoff wins by less than 20k but more than 10k
"Well done GOP, you won those election day ballots by 22% and we only expected you to win them by 20%. But...the Dems won a load of mail ballots by 45% when we only expected a 40% win, so you actually had to win those election day ballots by 23% to keep up."
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1346618556088262658?s=21
He might still do it, looks like a good amount of split ticketing in his favour (~1 in 180 voters isn't bad for such an invariant electorate)
Ossoff 51.3%
Perdue 48.7%
Warnock 51.8%
Loeffler 48.2%
Perdue now within 20,000.
Ossoff 50.4%
Perdue 49.6%
Warnock 50.6%
Loeffler 49.4%
EDIT: Ossoff back in the lead
This is close!
https://twitter.com/rufusgifford/status/1346629456652345345
But suburban counties around Atlanta still lagging. Could be that plenty of their precincts had long lines at 7pm which slows the count.
Warnock +1.4
Ossoff +0.7
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1346640153020932103
+1.4
+0.9
https://twitter.com/asteadwesley/status/1346631770964439040?s=21
Perdue 50.3%
Ossoff 49.7%
Warnock 50.3%
Loeffler 49.7%
That is going to be a source of massive friction in the Republican Party.
Cobb, Gwinnett, DeKalb, Chatham, Muscogee.
All Dem areas - not much left for the GOP to come in.
Perdue 50.5%
Ossoff 49.5%
Warnock 50%
Loeffler 50%
If RBG had lived another few months + a Breyer retirement and at a minimum Roberts would have had casting vote for next decade.
But presumably Breyer retirement still likely.
Of the last 16 batches, representing over a million votes, 14 were better for the Democrats, and two were bang on. Feels like that needs to turn around fast if they are to save one, let alone two, seats.
That said, the NYT forecasts for ballots remaining differ markedly from the votes counted so far.
Warnock +1.7
Perdue 50.6%
Ossoff 49.4%
Loeffler 50.2%
Warnock 49.8%
Perdue 50.1%
Ossoff 49.9%
Warnock 50.3%
Loeffler 49.7%
Perdue 50.8%
Ossoff 49.2%
Loeffler 50.4%
Warnock 49.6%
I think I'll wait up for that, but it means a third Talisker and a thick head.
Ossoff 1.08
https://twitter.com/repkevinbrady/status/1346655894759682054?s=21
Unclear whether correct but if so, bad news for Dems.
Purdue 51.5%
Ossoff 48.5%
Loeffler 51.1%
Warnock 48.9%
https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1346663385941860352?s=20
https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/1346664061229027328?s=20
CNN reporter last said 130,000. Previous report was 170,000.
If it's 130,000 then Dems may be in trouble.
Covid has escalated Silicon Valley's restrictions on speech
BY ANDREW DOYLE"
https://unherd.com/2021/01/how-big-tech-is-policing-the-pandemic/
Confirmed 171,000 to come in Dekalb.
ie Dekalb 183,000 total to come.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9115127/How-Israel-leaped-ahead-vaccine-race.html
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/israel-vaccinates-the-most-people/2021/01/04/23b20882-4e73-11eb-a1f5-fdaf28cfca90_story.html?outputType=amp
Perdue 50.2%
Ossoff 49.8%
Warnock 50.2%
Loeffler 49.8%
Another 18,000 still to come in Dekalb.
So NYT was correct all along.
Currently:
Warnock +26,000
Purdue + 9,000
Looks comfortable for Warnock and OK for Ossoff.
Perdue 50%
Ossoff 50% (Perdue 456 ahead)
Warnock 50.4%
Loeffler 49.6%
Approx 200,000 votes still to come statewide.
A little lower than I thought but 2 pickups for the DEMS.
Warnock +87,000 (1.9% * 4.6m)
Ossoff + 51,000 (1.1% * 4.6m)
Are we going to see them count 90% of the votes overnight, then have to wait weeks as the final few trickle in?
Overseas / military ballots can arrive until Friday - so no final result until after that.
But it looks very comfortable for Warnock and Ossoff.
Gabriel Sterling, the voting systems implementation manager, just delivered what he said would be the final briefing from the Georgia secretary of state’s office for the night.
Sterling said overall, it looks like they have about 27,600 or so advance votes to come in. About 19,000 will come in from DeKalb County and about 7,000 from Coffee County. He added that there will be a hodgepodge of other votes in other locations.
“In terms of the amount of votes that are potentially out there are coming from largely Democratic counties, there are some Republican counties – Floyd, Forsyth, Appling – but they are smaller in comparison to DeKalb's, Gwinnett's, Cobb's and Fulton's,” Sterling said. “That tells you that the outstanding will likely be leaning Democrat at best.”