I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
Oh you cynic. Wasn't even my idea, it was my wife's. A good one though, my daughter is missing a lot of social life at the moment and some feel good movies help.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Lockdown 3: Lockdown with a Vengeance. The political Willis to remove the virus.
As was noted a month or so ago, we had best not get to Lockdown 4, as it will be ideal for the anti-vaxxer libertarians - Lockdown 4: Live free or Lockdown
The great irony, of course, is the only places where people are able to live free and without lockdowns - i.e. China, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kog - are the places that started with completely draconian lockdowns (and combined them with quarantines for incoming travellers).
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
As AlwaysSinging has pointed out and has been pointed out repeatedly on here before, THERE ARE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNDER 60s IN HOSPITAL FROM THIS.
And at least a quarter, more like a third, of under sixties have “underlying conditions”
And a lack of said “underlying conditions” does not substantively reduce hospitalisations. A lack of these reduces deaths.
To cover off a halving of hospitalisations, you’ll need to go considerably past 15 million. That’d do to reduce deaths - as long as hospitalisations don’t spike. If they do, all bets are off and the “rule” of “most deaths are over 70 and/or with an underlying condition” won’t hold any more.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
Lockdown 3: Lockdown with a Vengeance. The political Willis to remove the virus.
As was noted a month or so ago, we had best not get to Lockdown 4, as it will be ideal for the anti-vaxxer libertarians - Lockdown 4: Live free or Lockdown
The great irony, of course, is the only places where people are able to live free and without lockdowns - i.e. China, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kog - are the places that started with completely draconian lockdowns (and combined them with quarantines for incoming travellers).
Yep, if we all had our time again that was the way to go, cultural resistance or no.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
"Guardians"??? Don't tell TSE that! He'll happily leave the kids with any passing tree and raccoon combo....
Should that happen though the pineapple vaults of the world will be most surely under threat. Imagine those small enterprising TSElets stunning their guards and making haste for the forbidden fruit!
They regularly eat pineapple, my kids know the rules.
1) Liverpool FC are the best, support any other team and you're going in a home
2) Pineapple does NOT belong on pizza
3) No screens at the dinner table
I hadn't realised it was pineapple on pizzas that you didn't like. My, you kept that quiet!
I'd point out though that football is dreadful rubbish no matter the team. (I do actually like playing it, but watching it is mind-numbing, the only worse thing being anyone talking about a game they're watching or have watched).
That Chelsea are only three points above Arsenal is thoroughly hilarious. Super Frankie Lampard might be looking for a new job after this.
Chelsea fans are hysterical, I remember when they were telling everybody that Lampard was a better manager than Klopp all because Lampard told Klopp to sit down.
Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent: 1. No won the referendum 2. There will be no other referendum 3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission 4. Vote Tory
I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
But you don’t say it like that.
You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.
You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.
That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.
One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
If Boris vetoes it Sturgeon’s argument is “horrible Tories” - fight against them and we’ll get a vote
The “horrible Westminster system” plays into the “let’s ignore the system” of the UDi camp
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
Given that we have already had 1.35m with the first dose of the Pfizer, a further 20m first doses of Pfizer and Oxford would get you pretty much everyone over 60, the Severely Critically Vulnerable, all teachers and all NHS workers. With change.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
It's unlikely to be proven.
We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
But, will they be voters who are not already hostile?
Readily believing the word of someone who you refused to believe at all when you wanted them hung, drawn and quartered, as evidence to topple someone else you dislike? Not for me, Clive
Is it impossible to take an objective view of Cummings's behaviour, leaving aside any political issues? Do you personally find that impossible, or do you just think everybody else does?
I'd have thought the people angriest with Cummings ought to be Johnson's supporters, for the entirely gratuitous damage and humiliation inflicted on their man.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
Given that we have already had 1.35m with the first dose of the Pfizer, a further 20m first doses of Pfizer and Oxford would get you pretty much everyone over 60, the Severely Critically Vulnerable, all teachers and all NHS workers. With change.
Thanks for that, good news, hopefully.
Something else been nagging me.
Say 10% of the population have had C-19, that needs to surely be accounted for as we head towards increasing immunity.
Granted many with C-19 anti-bodies are getting the jab, but there must be a pre-existing sizable lump of the population already with the anti-bodies, not needing the vaccine meaning we are further along than 1.3m vaccinated in terms of those who can no longer get seriously ill.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
It's unlikely to be proven.
We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
But, will they be voters who are not already hostile?
Readily believing the word of someone who you refused to believe at all when you wanted them hung, drawn and quartered, as evidence to topple someone else you dislike? Not for me, Clive.
Please see my post on exactly this point timed at 4 on the dot. Am I really so special? Would love to think so but I doubt it.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Instinctively I would agree with you. However. The evidence seems to be growing that this is a sub optimal philosophy for dealing with this virus. Making the same mistake once. Entirely understandable. Twice. Well, then serious questions should be being asked. To do it a third. Well...
All true, but I don't think you can have a serious investigation into e.g., the care home policy in England, without looking at the policy in Wales and Scotland, where it seems very similar mistakes were made.
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I'm perfectly happy to see the scope of any enquiry (or is it inquiry - if only we had someone from Wales who was a teacher on this site) extended to all the relevant devolved Governments and to encompass advice given to and decisions taken by relevant local authorities whether Counties, Districts, Boroughs or Unitaries.
The important things to learn quickly, are what were good decisions with hindsight, and what were bad decisions with hindsight. We need to feed these back into the response plan for the next time we get hit.
The enquiry needs to be like a transport accident enquiry, primarily focussed on causes and outcomes, rather than trying to place blame on individuals. No-one should need to come with a lawyer, and no-one should face prosecution for anything said at the enquiry.
In hindsight, listening to anything Toby Young said was a mistake.
Afternoon all. Almost the end of my 16-day weekend.
Does anyone know what is the current estimate of how many people in the UK have already had the virus?
I seem to recall this sort of data was given out weekly back in the summer based on antibody test results, but I have not seen anything for a good while.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
It's unlikely to be proven.
We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
But, will they be voters who are not already hostile?
Readily believing the word of someone who you refused to believe at all when you wanted them hung, drawn and quartered, as evidence to topple someone else you dislike? Not for me, Clive.
All true, but I don't think you can have a serious investigation into e.g., the care home policy in England, without looking at the policy in Wales and Scotland, where it seems very similar mistakes were made.
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I'm perfectly happy to see the scope of any enquiry (or is it inquiry - if only we had someone from Wales who was a teacher on this site) extended to all the relevant devolved Governments and to encompass advice given to and decisions taken by relevant local authorities whether Counties, Districts, Boroughs or Unitaries.
The important things to learn quickly, are what were good decisions with hindsight, and what were bad decisions with hindsight. We need to feed these back into the response plan for the next time we get hit.
The enquiry needs to be like a transport accident enquiry, primarily focussed on causes and outcomes, rather than trying to place blame on individuals. No-one should need to come with a lawyer, and no-one should face prosecution for anything said at the enquiry.
In hindsight, listening to anything Toby Young said was a mistake.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
My assumption is that targeting the vaccine on the over 80s and then the over 65s will bring the case fatality rate down quickly. That's great, but bear in mind in a growing epidemic the total number of deaths may also increase for a while as the CFR comes down.
It will have a smaller effect on the number of hospitalisations, as a greater percentage of younger patients will also see a greater percentage of recovery. This means we will have many more months of stress on the health system. That will eventually sort itself too as the total percentage of people vaccinated increases and as we move into Spring when rates of hospitalisation for all diseases will also fall.
I doubt we can safely relax restrictions until the early summer.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
My assumption is that targeting the vaccine on the over 80s and then the over 65s will bring the case fatality rate down quickly. That's great, but bear in mind in a growing epidemic the total number of deaths may also increase for a while as the CFR comes down.
It will have a smaller effect on the number of hospitalisations, as a greater percentage of younger patients will also see a greater percentage of recovery. This means we will have many more months of stress on the health system. That will eventually sort itself too as the total percentage of people vaccinated increases and as we move into Spring when natural rates of hospitalisation will also fall.
I doubt we can safely relax restrictions until the early summer.
Surely restrictions will start going bit by bit rather than big bang.
Can readily see tier 3 level restrictions in terms of households being able to visit bars and restaurants by March and fewer restrictions as time progresses.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
This is a weak defence though. The only significant group whose hearts - as opposed to heads - are PRO shutting down normal life are the Left and even then it's strictly the caricature version of the Left rather than the real one.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
My assumption is that targeting the vaccine on the over 80s and then the over 65s will bring the case fatality rate down quickly. That's great, but bear in mind in a growing epidemic the total number of deaths may also increase for a while as the CFR comes down.
It will have a smaller effect on the number of hospitalisations, as a greater percentage of younger patients will also see a greater percentage of recovery. This means we will have many more months of stress on the health system. That will eventually sort itself too as the total percentage of people vaccinated increases and as we move into Spring when natural rates of hospitalisation will also fall.
I doubt we can safely relax restrictions until the early summer.
Over 80s have made up 54% of the fatalities in this epidemic - and are 3.2 million people.
Hospitalisations are more distributed over the age range, though
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
It's unlikely to be proven.
We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
But, will they be voters who are not already hostile?
Readily believing the word of someone who you refused to believe at all when you wanted them hung, drawn and quartered, as evidence to topple someone else you dislike? Not for me, Clive.
Am I really so special? .
Of course you are, kinabalu.
- Well I am a genuine "superforecaster" but apart from that, no no no. Too kind but no.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
20 million would get you down to about half way through the 45-64 tranche.....
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
In interviews, the Pfizer CEO has spoke about how those who had the vaccine and tested positive for CV19 exhibited lower levels of viral shedding. So, it's a reasonable assumption that those vaccinated are less likely to spread CV19 - the real question is is it 5%, 25%, 75% or 90%? And, as you say, we won't know that for months.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
My assumption is that targeting the vaccine on the over 80s and then the over 65s will bring the case fatality rate down quickly. That's great, but bear in mind in a growing epidemic the total number of deaths may also increase for a while as the CFR comes down.
It will have a smaller effect on the number of hospitalisations, as a greater percentage of younger patients will also see a greater percentage of recovery. This means we will have many more months of stress on the health system. That will eventually sort itself too as the total percentage of people vaccinated increases and as we move into Spring when natural rates of hospitalisation will also fall.
I doubt we can safely relax restrictions until the early summer.
Surely restrictions will start going bit by bit rather than big bang.
Can readily see tier 3 level restrictions in terms of households being able to visit bars and restaurants by March and fewer restrictions as time progresses.
If we are keeping a lid on the epidemic at whatever rate of lockdown we are in, yes. So if, say, there is no increase in cases at Tier 4, we can manage the load on the healthcare system and gently ease off restrictions so that load also comes down gradually. However if the situation goes out of control, which looks quite likely at the moment, we will need to get to that level of stability of cases and also sort out the damage to the healthcare system before we can ease off at all.
Edit. For this reason I disagree with @Anabobazina that compliance with lockdown measures doesn't matter. It is a matter of life and death, actually,
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
In interviews, the Pfizer CEO has spoke about how those who had the vaccine and tested positive for CV19 exhibited lower levels of viral shedding. So, it's a reasonable assumption that those vaccinated are less likely to spread CV19 - the real question is is it 5%, 25%, 75% or 90%? And, as you say, we won't know that for months.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
I do wish threads could be proofread and edited down before publication. This really could have been written in 1/4 of the words and without the errors. (Mike is the only regular who writes brilliantly succinct threads.) There was a good piece lurking in here. Please don't take umbrage. If it's any consolation it's nowhere near as blunt as my own agent who regularly reduces bestselling authors to tears. It's about standards, that's all. And you don't raise them by being overly polite to one another. As Michael Gove would testify! He's often rude in Cabinet. And often right.
As some of you may recall, I cashed out on "the Rishi Sunak" [sic.] in December. It's not that he isn't still favourite. It's that there are too many curve-balls around at the moment. I'm not sure Gove will be the answer for the Conservative Party. I rather doubt it. The union as we knew it is probably already doomed anyway: Northern Ireland will have to unite with the south after Johnson's Brexit. It's only a question of when. Will a United Kingdom survive with the Scots rightly agitating to leave?
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
It is my brother-in-law's wedding in Ireland on the 18th June. I feel certain that people will let me know the football score if it is good for Scotland. Assuming guests are allowed at the wedding by then.
Cummings seems to be a good character in a morality tale about how being right about something (lockdown) isn't enough if you're also an obnoxious twit who cannot follow the rules you wish to impose on other.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
It certainly is not a distraction, indeed it is the main determinant of risk from Covid. I don’t have the figures to hand but tens of millions of UK people have no underlying health conditions. It’s not some sort of niche cohort.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
In interviews, the Pfizer CEO has spoke about how those who had the vaccine and tested positive for CV19 exhibited lower levels of viral shedding. So, it's a reasonable assumption that those vaccinated are less likely to spread CV19 - the real question is is it 5%, 25%, 75% or 90%? And, as you say, we won't know that for months.
Presumably the numbers also showed far fewer people who had had the vaccine testing positive?
From an evidentiary POV I am still concerned that a lot of the 'asymptomatic' positives using the PCR test might actually be evidence of lingering pieces of virus, rather than viable infection.
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
We've started playing Rummy every night with the kids.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
Exactly.
I have asked a few of the more vociferous lock us downers on here about their personal circumstances but haven't had any answers.
But indeed - secure incomes, big houses, perhaps some land I'm sure are all part of the equation.
If he wants to close schools for the longer term realistically he has to make the call by Wednesday.
If he makes it later than that he’s facing actual riots, which might defeat the object.
He really isn’t. Teachers aren’t going to riot.
I was thinking parents would riot if they were forced to find childcare and sort out remote learning at less than 72 hours notice.
You’re a parent and you’ve made your - understandable - position on school closures very clear. How would you feel if he turned round and suddenly said that it was happening despite all his previous denials with immediate effect?
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
We've started playing Rummy every night with the kids.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
It sounds like your children have a future (or perhaps opportunities now) in public opinion commentary
@MaxPB - I have had the same conversion to the single shot policy as you. Begrudgingly, I have to admit that Blair seems to have called this right.
Again it's a super tricky one but the psychological damage to oldies who have agreed to two jabs should not be underestimated. Although of the oldies I know who have had one jab, none has received an amending text from NHS to say the second one is cancelled.
And thinking about it I have to believe that such an administrative act as to know who has had what must be beyond the NHS.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
Given that we have already had 1.35m with the first dose of the Pfizer, a further 20m first doses of Pfizer and Oxford would get you pretty much everyone over 60, the Severely Critically Vulnerable, all teachers and all NHS workers. With change.
Thanks for that, good news, hopefully.
Something else been nagging me.
Say 10% of the population have had C-19, that needs to surely be accounted for as we head towards increasing immunity.
Granted many with C-19 anti-bodies are getting the jab, but there must be a pre-existing sizable lump of the population already with the anti-bodies, not needing the vaccine meaning we are further along than 1.3m vaccinated in terms of those who can no longer get seriously ill.
But those who have had it before late summer probably have no anti-bodies now?
Lockdown 3: Lockdown with a Vengeance. The political Willis to remove the virus.
As was noted a month or so ago, we had best not get to Lockdown 4, as it will be ideal for the anti-vaxxer libertarians - Lockdown 4: Live free or Lockdown
The great irony, of course, is the only places where people are able to live free and without lockdowns - i.e. China, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kog - are the places that started with completely draconian lockdowns (and combined them with quarantines for incoming travellers).
Yep, if we all had our time again that was the way to go, cultural resistance or no.
Even with less Draconian measures, near-zero Covid could still have been done by sticking with restrictions for longer, just as long as they were enough to keep R below 1. But no, we (and Europe) had to get back to the pubs and couldn't possibly cope without foreign holidays. Reopening should have been much more careful, with schools first, and at least three weeks between steps to determine the effect on R.
Actually that's still the same plan that's required now, except that the vaccines will gradually bring R down and thereby enable further reopening steps.
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
We've started playing Rummy every night with the kids.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
It sounds like your children have a future (or perhaps opportunities now) in public opinion commentary
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
I don't know anyone who advocates permanent lockdown. If you lockdown for long enough to remove the virus from circulation, and keep it out with quarantine and travel restrictions, you can open up completely.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
Given that we have already had 1.35m with the first dose of the Pfizer, a further 20m first doses of Pfizer and Oxford would get you pretty much everyone over 60, the Severely Critically Vulnerable, all teachers and all NHS workers. With change.
If everybody in these groups is willing to be vaccinated... If they are not willing, then when eventually the restrictions are eased anyone who is in a high-risk group and who is not vaccinated will be putting themselves at even higher risk. Most of the deaths and hospitalisations after that will be in unvaccinated people.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
Indeed. My mental rule of thumb is:
15 million done - end of Tier 4 and above; schools go back; all locations down one Tier. 25 million done - end of Tier 3 and above; invention of “Tier 0” with lesser restrictions but some remaining; everyone down one more Tier (so Tier 4 today are now Tier 2; Tier 3 are Tier 1; some are even Tier 0) 35 million done - end of Tier 2 and above, everyone either Tier 1 or Tier 0. 45 million done - end of restrictions.
@MaxPB - I have had the same conversion to the single shot policy as you. Begrudgingly, I have to admit that Blair seems to have called this right.
Again it's a super tricky one but the psychological damage to oldies who have agreed to two jabs should not be underestimated. Although of the oldies I know who have had one jab, none has received an amending text from NHS to say the second one is cancelled.
And thinking about it I have to believe that such an administrative act as to know who has had what must be beyond the NHS.
National interest outweighs individual interest at this time. Inter arma enim silent leges.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
I don't know anyone who advocates permanent lockdown. If you lockdown for long enough to remove the virus from circulation, and keep it out with quarantine and travel restrictions, you can open up completely.
Haven't we seen that as soon as you open up there is a resurgence?
No idea if you are a member of said brigade but would you have opened up society over the summer?
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
Given that we have already had 1.35m with the first dose of the Pfizer, a further 20m first doses of Pfizer and Oxford would get you pretty much everyone over 60, the Severely Critically Vulnerable, all teachers and all NHS workers. With change.
Indeed. And 15m covers a goodly tranche of that, including those most at risk. Hence why we should look to unlock after that point. And why rapid deployment is the key - rather than moralising about French teenagers at raves.
@MaxPB - I have had the same conversion to the single shot policy as you. Begrudgingly, I have to admit that Blair seems to have called this right.
Again it's a super tricky one but the psychological damage to oldies who have agreed to two jabs should not be underestimated. Although of the oldies I know who have had one jab, none has received an amending text from NHS to say the second one is cancelled.
And thinking about it I have to believe that such an administrative act as to know who has had what must be beyond the NHS.
National interest outweighs individual interest at this time. Inter arma enim silent leges.
Much as it weighs on my usual political leanings, this the conclusion I have come to.
There will be whinging from the Bakewells of this world; but it will help us save lives AND open up again quicker.
@MaxPB - I have had the same conversion to the single shot policy as you. Begrudgingly, I have to admit that Blair seems to have called this right.
Again it's a super tricky one but the psychological damage to oldies who have agreed to two jabs should not be underestimated. Although of the oldies I know who have had one jab, none has received an amending text from NHS to say the second one is cancelled.
And thinking about it I have to believe that such an administrative act as to know who has had what must be beyond the NHS.
National interest outweighs individual interest at this time. Inter arma enim silent leges.
Yes absolutely but you are slightly throwing many of those 1m oldies under a bus and undermining confidence in your government.
@MaxPB - I have had the same conversion to the single shot policy as you. Begrudgingly, I have to admit that Blair seems to have called this right.
Again it's a super tricky one but the psychological damage to oldies who have agreed to two jabs should not be underestimated. Although of the oldies I know who have had one jab, none has received an amending text from NHS to say the second one is cancelled.
And thinking about it I have to believe that such an administrative act as to know who has had what must be beyond the NHS.
You should have heard my aunt on the subject of people complaining about cancelling the second jab. She has had her second one cancelled - and agrees with the reason for it.
I told her she should do a YouTube channel - it was about 30 minutes of non-stop articulate swearing at people not having the sense that God gave to the mould on cheese.
Oh and presumably further measures means schools closed? We're already at everything else aren't we?
Universities.
Closing the borders to holiday making twats (out and in).
Proper lockdown. And so on. Quite a bit still.
Haven’t unis already in effect been shut for all those who can study remotely?
Seems to be quite a mix - some students are expected to come back in esp. for practical subjects, I gather. Bit late now to change minds, of course.
We've* decided to shut our practicals until Jan 25th at the earliest.
No room to reschedule, so will have to replace somehow. Warning the whole department tomorrow that replacements will be needed across, just in case, across the board.
*no idea who, the wording cites 'resistance from students and their parents on coming back now'
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
Given that we have already had 1.35m with the first dose of the Pfizer, a further 20m first doses of Pfizer and Oxford would get you pretty much everyone over 60, the Severely Critically Vulnerable, all teachers and all NHS workers. With change.
Thanks for that, good news, hopefully.
Something else been nagging me.
Say 10% of the population have had C-19, that needs to surely be accounted for as we head towards increasing immunity.
Granted many with C-19 anti-bodies are getting the jab, but there must be a pre-existing sizable lump of the population already with the anti-bodies, not needing the vaccine meaning we are further along than 1.3m vaccinated in terms of those who can no longer get seriously ill.
But those who have had it before late summer probably have no anti-bodies now?
Not necessarily - but I believe that the vaccine(s) have been shown to provoke a stronger response in the immune system than actually having COVID.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
@MaxPB - I have had the same conversion to the single shot policy as you. Begrudgingly, I have to admit that Blair seems to have called this right.
Again it's a super tricky one but the psychological damage to oldies who have agreed to two jabs should not be underestimated. Although of the oldies I know who have had one jab, none has received an amending text from NHS to say the second one is cancelled.
And thinking about it I have to believe that such an administrative act as to know who has had what must be beyond the NHS.
You should have heard my aunt on the subject of people complaining about cancelling the second jab. She has had her second one cancelled - and agrees with the reason for it.
I told her she should do a YouTube channel - it was about 30 minutes of non-stop articulate swearing at people not having the sense that God gave to the mould on cheese.
It is fantastic that your aunt is in possession of her complete facilities.
Many oldies are not and are easily confused, scared, and depressed.
Anyone got the latest figures on how many vaccinations we are/will be doing in the UK?
1.37 million according to Our World in Data
So roughly 2%. We need to be much, much faster than that.
Astra Zeneca only becomes available tomorrow
And pity France at around 350
I heard France was AVERAGING 53 shots a day ............
Which is pretty good going for something that comes in a box of 1,000, and has a very limited shelf-life once the box is opened. How many have they thrown away?
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
Are those figures based on first wave data? The reason I ask is that there is evidence that mortality has dropped particularly in the older age groups. See this German study from September:
Oh and presumably further measures means schools closed? We're already at everything else aren't we?
Universities.
Closing the borders to holiday making twats (out and in).
Proper lockdown. And so on. Quite a bit still.
Haven’t unis already in effect been shut for all those who can study remotely?
Not yet. The government advice is apparently that students should delay their return until (I think) Jan 25th, but those who already bought tickets may still travel. This includes international students. It seems a mess. I am hoping that Universities themselves show some leadership and ask students not to return, but I don't think this is likely. At the very least we should be *allowing* students to student remotely if they wish but current policy is not that. It may change next week when the VC class wakes up from their break.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
Failure to lockdown in March would have hurt the economy more imo and the failure to institute a 2nd lockdown in September is going to have very serious adverse economic consequences.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
Indeed. My mental rule of thumb is:
15 million done - end of Tier 4 and above; schools go back; all locations down one Tier. 25 million done - end of Tier 3 and above; invention of “Tier 0” with lesser restrictions but some remaining; everyone down one more Tier (so Tier 4 today are now Tier 2; Tier 3 are Tier 1; some are even Tier 0) 35 million done - end of Tier 2 and above, everyone either Tier 1 or Tier 0. 45 million done - end of restrictions.
Could be, yes. I think it depends more on hospital capacity (and specifically ICU capacity) than number jabbed. If either the lockdowns (if they ever actually become lockdowns) or the vaccinations release pressure on hospitals, unlocking a step becomes safer. Mind you, riding the wave of hospitals nearly-but-not-quite overwhelmed sounds pretty awful for the hospital staff.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
Are those figures based on first wave data? The reason I ask is that there is evidence that mortality has dropped particularly in the older age groups. See this German study from September:
Would a falling case fatality rate not lead to more pressure on beds, as people who recover need a bed for longer than th one who succumb?
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
Failure to lockdown in March would have hurt the economy more imo and the failure to institute a 2nd lockdown in September is going to have very serious adverse economic consequences.
Thing is at what point do you say "fine let's stop the lockdown"?
If he wants to close schools for the longer term realistically he has to make the call by Wednesday.
If he makes it later than that he’s facing actual riots, which might defeat the object.
He really isn’t. Teachers aren’t going to riot.
I was thinking parents would riot if they were forced to find childcare and sort out remote learning at less than 72 hours notice.
You’re a parent and you’ve made your - understandable - position on school closures very clear. How would you feel if he turned round and suddenly said that it was happening despite all his previous denials with immediate effect?
Exactly the way I feel now as my boy’s school was closed weeks ago with zero notice. The entire thing is utterly shambolic. However, I feel schools must try to stay open at least for deprived children, who are likely to receive zero tuition at home.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
Are those figures based on first wave data? The reason I ask is that there is evidence that mortality has dropped particularly in the older age groups. See this German study from September:
Very encouraging.
One of the reasons I was pro lockdown in March and pro tiers now is that we have far better understanding (albeit still limited) of the virus. Do you think this is because protocols have improved for the most acute cases? A consultant I know suggested as much.
In fairness he's right both historically and in the modern sense.
In 1707 they just bolted on the Scots MPs to the pre-existing Westminster Pmt.
And today Westminster is indeed the parliament for deciding English laws. That it is also the UK parliament simply reflects the Blairite devolution settlement. EVEL and all that.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
So presumably 20m first doses would include all over 65 and those deemed Severely Critically Vulnerable, which includes my 48 year old wife.
There was a very succint table someone published, err,
this
Around 5 to 6 million vaccinations and we should see a effect on the death rate (and also hospitalisations, but it will be lower). That should not be too far away.
Comments
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
And at least a quarter, more like a third, of under sixties have “underlying conditions”
And a lack of said “underlying conditions” does not substantively reduce hospitalisations. A lack of these reduces deaths.
To cover off a halving of hospitalisations, you’ll need to go considerably past 15 million. That’d do to reduce deaths - as long as hospitalisations don’t spike. If they do, all bets are off and the “rule” of “most deaths are over 70 and/or with an underlying condition” won’t hold any more.
I hadn't realised it was pineapple on pizzas that you didn't like. My, you kept that quiet!
I'd point out though that football is dreadful rubbish no matter the team. (I do actually like playing it, but watching it is mind-numbing, the only worse thing being anyone talking about a game they're watching or have watched).
I *think* the "1.37" number is actually vaccinations per 100k people as was quoted, rather than total vaccinations in millions.
(Though to be fair given that the 944k number was Dec 27th it may well be where we are roughly now).
Open to correction, though.
The “horrible Westminster system” plays into the “let’s ignore the system” of the UDi camp
I'd have thought the people angriest with Cummings ought to be Johnson's supporters, for the entirely gratuitous damage and humiliation inflicted on their man.
Something else been nagging me.
Say 10% of the population have had C-19, that needs to surely be accounted for as we head towards increasing immunity.
Granted many with C-19 anti-bodies are getting the jab, but there must be a pre-existing sizable lump of the population already with the anti-bodies, not needing the vaccine meaning we are further along than 1.3m vaccinated in terms of those who can no longer get seriously ill.
For example, in the week ending 27th - 303,423
if they were working 7 days a week all the way through - 43K a day. If a couple of days were lost to Christmas 60K.....
However. The evidence seems to be growing that this is a sub optimal philosophy for dealing with this virus.
Making the same mistake once. Entirely understandable. Twice. Well, then serious questions should be being asked.
To do it a third. Well...
Does anyone know what is the current estimate of how many people in the UK have already had the virus?
I seem to recall this sort of data was given out weekly back in the summer based on antibody test results, but I have not seen anything for a good while.
It will have a smaller effect on the number of hospitalisations, as a greater percentage of younger patients will also see a greater percentage of recovery. This means we will have many more months of stress on the health system. That will eventually sort itself too as the total percentage of people vaccinated increases and as we move into Spring when rates of hospitalisation for all diseases will also fall.
I doubt we can safely relax restrictions until the early summer.
Can readily see tier 3 level restrictions in terms of households being able to visit bars and restaurants by March and fewer restrictions as time progresses.
* Should say I didn't venture out during first wave, but I never remember reading of it getting to that stage in the local press.
Hospitalisations are more distributed over the age range, though
Plenty on here also.
Had a bit of real life (all good just holiday stuff) getting in the way of posting on here so glad to see you all active.
Edit. For this reason I disagree with @Anabobazina that compliance with lockdown measures doesn't matter. It is a matter of life and death, actually,
Closing the borders to holiday making twats (out and in).
Proper lockdown. And so on. Quite a bit still.
Perhaps travel but I doubt it.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
Cummings seems to be a good character in a morality tale about how being right about something (lockdown) isn't enough if you're also an obnoxious twit who cannot follow the rules you wish to impose on other.
From an evidentiary POV I am still concerned that a lot of the 'asymptomatic' positives using the PCR test might actually be evidence of lingering pieces of virus, rather than viable infection.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
I have asked a few of the more vociferous lock us downers on here about their personal circumstances but haven't had any answers.
But indeed - secure incomes, big houses, perhaps some land I'm sure are all part of the equation.
You’re a parent and you’ve made your - understandable - position on school closures very clear. How would you feel if he turned round and suddenly said that it was happening despite all his previous denials with immediate effect?
Agreeing with Tony Blair today, tomorrow you'll be singing the Red Flag.
And thinking about it I have to believe that such an administrative act as to know who has had what must be beyond the NHS.
I have actually sung the red flag before!
We were invited to the Labour Party conference in 2003 as local Dorset A level politics students. It really is a rousing tune.
Actually that's still the same plan that's required now, except that the vaccines will gradually bring R down and thereby enable further reopening steps.
My mental rule of thumb is:
15 million done - end of Tier 4 and above; schools go back; all locations down one Tier.
25 million done - end of Tier 3 and above; invention of “Tier 0” with lesser restrictions but some remaining; everyone down one more Tier (so Tier 4 today are now Tier 2; Tier 3 are Tier 1; some are even Tier 0)
35 million done - end of Tier 2 and above, everyone either Tier 1 or Tier 0.
45 million done - end of restrictions.
La Marseillaise.
(As would Thatcher, Major, Brown, May, Cameron,... and just about every PM I can think of.)
No idea if you are a member of said brigade but would you have opened up society over the summer?
There will be whinging from the Bakewells of this world; but it will help us save lives AND open up again quicker.
I told her she should do a YouTube channel - it was about 30 minutes of non-stop articulate swearing at people not having the sense that God gave to the mould on cheese.
Heck, I'm surprised they've managed to change the Australian one so simply, and that only involved changing one word.
Not as pacey, but the Soviet anthem is pretty stirring.
No room to reschedule, so will have to replace somehow. Warning the whole department tomorrow that replacements will be needed across, just in case, across the board.
*no idea who, the wording cites 'resistance from students and their parents on coming back now'
https://twitter.com/BuchananFaolan/status/1345788307188416512
Many oldies are not and are easily confused, scared, and depressed.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
--AS
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
--AS
One of the reasons I was pro lockdown in March and pro tiers now is that we have far better understanding (albeit still limited) of the virus. Do you think this is because protocols have improved for the most acute cases? A consultant I know suggested as much.
In 1707 they just bolted on the Scots MPs to the pre-existing Westminster Pmt.
And today Westminster is indeed the parliament for deciding English laws. That it is also the UK parliament simply reflects the Blairite devolution settlement. EVEL and all that.
Edit@ @tlg86 poiinted this out first I see!
this
Around 5 to 6 million vaccinations and we should see a effect on the death rate (and also hospitalisations, but it will be lower). That should not be too far away.