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David Herdson’s 2021 predictions – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I am not sure Netflix need to do that to get customers. Amazon on the other than, that makes way more sense. The big player is still ESPN, who are owned by Disney, massive brand but losing customers because people don't want to pay for a full cable package just for that channel. They have launched ESPN+, that they use for things like UFC, I can see them really expanding that to many sports.

    Disney bought the tech company who ran the online MLB streaming service a couple of years ago
    The US sports rights market is even more of a mess than the European one, full of entrenched interests and monopolies. There’s online subscriptions that require a cable subscription, cable companies’ bundling groups of channels such that to get ESPN requires a $150/month subscription to 1000 other channels, local blackouts of matches to encourage in-person attendance, cable TV companies with local monopolies on internet service etc etc.

    The real scumbags are the cable cos like Comcast. The revolution will happen when ESPN refuses to sign up to Comcast’s exclusive terms for its sports channels, instead moving them to Disney+ Or as a stand-alone online service.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Yeah, the EU have nothing better to do than police our number-plates, huh? Like, you know, France, you see this as a priority over, oh, I don't know, vaccinating your people?
    Yet again , England still stuck in Agincourt / Waterloo days of glory, unionists are crackers
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,672
    DavidL said:

    So presumably we will now be in the same position as every other country that is not in the customs union, such as Switzerland?
    I don't know, but I would expect it to be EEA not EU in scope.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    MattW said:

    Cycling to Work scheme is still in place, now covering E-Bikes as well. They have removed the £1000 value cap, which to me seems to be a mistake as it should imo be about as many as possible for the money.

    The 50k Fix your Bike vouchers were taken up.
    https://fixyourbikevoucherscheme.est.org.uk/

    No idea about future schemes.
    How do I justify cycling from my bedroom to my office to qualify.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    >
    Sandpit said:

    One attempt at collating vaccine rollout data in the same way as testing data.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Not yet at the same quality of reporting though, many countries are not providing updates frequently if at all.

    The quality of reporting issue I get, but not updating frequently seems a bit surprising - even if a rollout is slower than hoped for, it feels like any government would trumpet the news about how many have been vaccinated, as that remains clear good news.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    An advert keeps popping up on my Facebook page

    Adecco UK & Ireland ·
    Safe and protected, socially distanced jobs
    and goes on to say
    Welcome to the census recruitment website.
    We’re hiring thousands of people like you in a range of exciting temporary roles to make Census 2021 a success.

    Which 'Friend of Boris' runs Adecco? Or am I being cynical?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    malcolmg said:

    Yet again , England still stuck in Agincourt / Waterloo days of glory, unionists are crackers
    Even by your tortured mind, malcy, a bit of a stretch to get there!
  • An advert keeps popping up on my Facebook page

    Adecco UK & Ireland ·
    Safe and protected, socially distanced jobs
    and goes on to say
    Welcome to the census recruitment website.
    We’re hiring thousands of people like you in a range of exciting temporary roles to make Census 2021 a success.

    Which 'Friend of Boris' runs Adecco? Or am I being cynical?

    Swiss company run by a Belgian. Second largest HR Company in the world.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,540
    edited January 2021

    You could from 2018 onwards, except most sports and films.
    According to BBC own website you still couldn't (and loads of other supporting articles from 2018/19)....e.g.

    https://www.engadget.com/amp/2018-04-02-bbc-iplayer-streaming-europe-uk-eu.html

    Apparently though...

    "The problem could resolve itself, as once the country leaves the EU, these portability rules may no longer apply."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    ydoethur said:

    My goodness. Some people just have their priorities wrong.
    And some are so pussy-whipped, they don't get a veto on holiday timings.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    edited January 2021
    Alistair said:

    Opposite way round.
    David had his Tory hat on so was in SNPBAD mode rather than reality.
    PS: Last I read we were 20% ahead of England on vaccinations per head of population , so another unionist bubble burst.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    My goodness. Some people just have their priorities wrong.
    My wife once tried to book a few days in the middle of nowhere on an F1 weekend.

    Every year, thoundands of people make the mistake of booking their wedding for FA Cup Final day.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Meanwhile the French covid vaccination tracker hasn't been updated since Wednesday:

    https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker

    Macron really needs to sack someone. Or be sacked himself.

    No wonder why he was banging on about brexit during his new year's message. What a tool.
  • GG brings new meaning to ‘single handedly’.

    https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1345310586658312192?s=21
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    Swiss company run by a Belgian. Second largest HR Company in the world.
    Another success for British business then; recruitment for the census.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    An advert keeps popping up on my Facebook page

    Adecco UK & Ireland ·
    Safe and protected, socially distanced jobs
    and goes on to say
    Welcome to the census recruitment website.
    We’re hiring thousands of people like you in a range of exciting temporary roles to make Census 2021 a success.

    Which 'Friend of Boris' runs Adecco? Or am I being cynical?

    You are, and it's normally to be avoided, best to keep your mind pure, but with these guys it's hard to do that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,778
    felix said:

    Unless it is always the same 3/4 people your knowledge is unhelpful. The point about staff seems to assume they all caught it in the classroom from students. Again I would like to see the evidence. I'd also love to see your evidence that the DfE has a high proportion of 'drunken crooks' - otherwise it could be you're simply peddling an agenda.
    You won’t see evidence as government simply has not been publishing it for schools (other than the odd made up headline).
    Teachers and their unions have been asking for the data since last summer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,683
    edited January 2021

    According to BBC own website you still couldn't (and loads of other supporting articles from 2018/19)....e.g.

    https://www.engadget.com/amp/2018-04-02-bbc-iplayer-streaming-europe-uk-eu.html
    I managed it in 2019 in Spain.

    Edit - Looking at it was the News Channel I accessed which is possible.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    Yeah, the EU have nothing better to do than police our number-plates, huh? Like, you know, France, you see this as a priority over, oh, I don't know, vaccinating your people?
    But who says France do prioritise this? This has come from the UK not France, so blame the UK not France.

    From personal experience of travelling in France my experience is that the French might well be bureaucratic, but also very pragmatic in the implementation of rules. A huge amount of ignoring of rules and only implementing when needed.

    This is a far better approach than us where once we pass rules we seem to enforce no matter how barmy a particular circumstance is (my jobs worth hating of UK authorities). The only exception I can think of is speeding enforcement where common sense does get applied by most UK policemen.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,672
    edited January 2021
    DavidL said:

    A strange story. The French police are not normally so shy and retiring.
    The Le Monde account is far more interesting:

    https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2021/01/01/comment-ca-va-se-passer-s-il-faut-les-deloger-plus-de-2-500-fetards-rassembles-en-bretagne-pour-une-rave-party-sauvage_6064994_3224.html

    I love that the Local Health Authority is called ARS. Wonder if they employ the Proctologists?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132

    Yeah, the EU have nothing better to do than police our number-plates, huh? Like, you know, France, you see this as a priority over, oh, I don't know, vaccinating your people?
    The French cops who sit in their patrol car just where the speed limit drops dramatically before the last northbound toll station before Calais might be interested? Especially for those cars in the know who have already slowed down to the appropriate speed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,540
    edited January 2021
    I remember initially Spotify had an issue with trying to use it when you went abroad, due to rights being limited to each country. Then they simply renegotiated with the rights holders to allow access on a time limited basis so you see no interruption when you go on holiday.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Even by your tortured mind, malcy, a bit of a stretch to get there!
    Would mean new plates for me , no way I would have butchers apron on mine, I will stick with the Saltire and EU
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    edited January 2021
    Sandpit said:

    My wife once tried to book a few days in the middle of nowhere on an F1 weekend.

    Every year, thoundands of people make the mistake of booking their wedding for FA Cup Final day.
    I trust she didn’t make that mistake again.
  • Another success for British business then; recruitment for the census.
    A British subsidiary using local labour to do the work. Seems absolutely fine to me unless you have some sort of desperate hatred of foreigners.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited January 2021
    Is he a man of influence? And was it ever in doubt that we could rejoin later (seek to rejoin at least)? The deal wasn't handed down by Moses on Mt Sinai to last for eternity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,540
    edited January 2021
    Aren't the French police normally more interested in knowing if you have the yellow vest, the breathalyser, the funny wing mirrors and all the other nonsense required to drive in France?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    kinabalu said:

    You are, and it's normally to be avoided, best to keep your mind pure, but with these guys it's hard to do that.
    You could bet your last pound that it will be chums who run Adecco
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,778
    .
    ydoethur said:

    It was the teachers they referred to as ‘the Blob.’....
    To be fair, from their point of view, it’s an entirely accurate description - an amorphous mass about whom they have no knowledge at all.

    The term has always said a great deal more about those who use it, than about what it purports to describe.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    edited January 2021

    Aren't the French police normally more interested in knowing if you have the yellow vest, the breathalyser, the funny wing mirrors and all the other nonsense required to drive in France?

    You don't, and never did, need a breathalyser (the legislation got passed but never enacted or enforced), although some companies did nicely selling them to Brits who thought you did.

    The French passed the law before realising that there was only one company in France that made them, so kept postponing the introduction date until they eventually abandoned it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    Aren't the French police normally more interested in knowing if you have the yellow vest, the breathalyser, the funny wing mirrors and all the other nonsense required to drive in France?

    I don't think they are. Yes they are the rules but I have never heard of anyone being done for it. It is worth noting that not having a breathalyzer is illegal, but there is no penalty for not having one whatsoever!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    edited January 2021
    kjh said:

    I don't think they are. Yes they are the rules but I have never heard of anyone being done for it. It is worth noting that not having a breathalyzer is illegal, but there is no penalty for not having one whatsoever!
    Nevertheless I believe about a third of French motorway speeding tickets are issued to British cars, very many of them on the motorway approaching Calais. Returning tourists are always in a hurry and mostly pay on the spot rather than be held up.

    Edit/ And I am pretty sure it is no longer even illegal
  • IanB2 said:

    You don't, and never did, need a breathalyser (the legislation got passed but never enacted or enforced), although some companies did nicely selling them to Brits who thought you did.

    The French passed the law before realising that there was only one company in France that made them, so kept postponing the introduction date until they eventually abandoned it.
    Very French.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    edited January 2021
    kle4 said:

    Is he a man of influence? And was it ever in doubt that we could rejoin later (seek to rejoin at least)? The deal wasn't handed down by Moses on Mt Sinai to last for eternity.
    He’s a Conservative peer made so by BJ, and a pal of his. Pretty sure that’s what counts as a man of influence in the current chummocracy.
  • I remember initially Spotify had an issue with trying to use it when you went abroad, due to rights being limited to each country. Then they simply renegotiated with the rights holders to allow access on a time limited basis so you see no interruption when you go on holiday.

    My particular hatred of regional barriers is with Pandora. It was an epic music download system with new music suggestion algorithms that were absolutely years ahead of anything else including Spotify. Its ability to use your listening habits to find new bands you had never heard of but which you loved at first listening were legendary.

    Then for some reason they stopped operating to the EU (including of course the UK at that time) and we ended up with the poor fourth rate copy of Spotify instead.

    I listened to it when I was back in Canada in 2018 and it is still brilliant.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    Morning Malc

    Our prescriptions are automatically prescribed every month for six months then a review with the doctor

    It is one of the few things working well under labour's Wales NHS
    Off topic

    It is not.

    Several years ago I cleared my late father's house out of repeat prescriptions. Amongst the multiple 500 packs of Paracetamol, I found enough Tramadol to shame a Columbian drugs cartel.

    On returning the items to the pharmacy I was told I could not reduce the delivery schedule on his behalf due to having no authority so to do. When I cleared the house out post-mortem for the final time, I returned several more carrier bags of unused medication.

    It is a dangerous scandal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    IanB2 said:

    Nevertheless I believe about a third of French motorway speeding tickets are issued to British cars, very many of them on the motorway approaching Calais. Returning tourists are always in a hurry and mostly pay on the spot rather than be held up.

    Edit/ And I am pretty sure it is no longer even illegal
    They really love the days either side of the Le Mans 24h race in June. About 50,000 Brits attend, many of whom drive down in sports cars.

    There are always complaints of underhanded tactics by French traffic cops, but the choice is either to pay the fine on the spot, or spend the night at their pleasure before going to see a magistrate the next day - so long as the next day isn’t Saturday, or Sunday.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    GG brings new meaning to ‘single handedly’.

    https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1345310586658312192?s=21

    I suspect he always did vote Tory. Even against himself.
  • Sandpit said:

    They really love the days either side of the Le Mans 24h race in June. About 50,000 Brits attend, many of whom drive down in sports cars.

    There are always complaints of underhanded tactics by French traffic cops, but the choice is either to pay the fine on the spot, or spend the night at their pleasure before going to see a magistrate the next day - so long as the next day isn’t Saturday, or Sunday.
    Surely the way to avoid this is to stick to the speed limit...!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    IanB2 said:

    Nevertheless I believe about a third of French motorway speeding tickets are issued to British cars, very many of them on the motorway approaching Calais. Returning tourists are always in a hurry and mostly pay on the spot rather than be held up.

    Edit/ And I am pretty sure it is no longer even illegal
    But as I mentioned it is a case of being pragmatic with the rules (and one of the few where we are as well). So booking people for speeding where there is a risk and I would think tired hurrying people are a high risk. Of course I could be giving them the benefit of the doubt and it might just be an opportunity to collect easy revenue. I have to say I have used the tunnel a lot and have no experience of this. Can't even recall seeing the police.
  • kjh said:

    I don't think they are. Yes they are the rules but I have never heard of anyone being done for it. It is worth noting that not having a breathalyzer is illegal, but there is no penalty for not having one whatsoever!
    A few years ago just after the new rules were introduced in France there was a spate of UK drivers being stopped just outside Calais or Boulogne for not having the yellow vest within reaching distance of the drivers seat. A lot of complaints were made because although drivers had them in the car, if they were on the back parcel shelf or back seat and you couldn't reach it then you were breaking the law. The French police basically just stood by the side of the road and stopped every British and Irish car that came through to check. To be fair on the police when you look at the reports it appears that most of the time they then just warned the drivers rather than fining them.

    I do suspect that in one of those ironic twists given the protests, these days they might be doing people for owning yellow vests rather than not having them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    Yeah, the EU have nothing better to do than police our number-plates, huh? Like, you know, France, you see this as a priority over, oh, I don't know, vaccinating your people?
    You seem very angry with the EU this morning. Perhaps we should try to leave.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    malcolmg said:

    This is a spectacular video, amazing............ Hogmanay 2020
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx3Zmkgt2no

    Bravo!

  • kinabalu said:

    Morning all and thank you David H for interesting Header. Strikes me I haven’t posted any serious predictions myself for 21 and so to quickly put that right -

    Dems do the double in Georgia and gain control of the senate.
    Joe Biden becomes a popular uniting figure.
    Donald Trump leaves the White House in a horizontal position and thereafter fades away.
    So does Brexit. It still features but without the heat.
    Near term Covid meets the worse case scenario. The NHS collapses in many places.
    Nevertheless by August it’s all over and we’re back to normal.
    Except we’re not because the public finances are utterly wrecked.
    This problem will not be faced up to by the Johnson government.
    Neither will the need for Sindy2.
    But in better news for Scotland, Andy Murray has a big Wimbledon.

    5 correct 5 wrong.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    A few years ago just after the new rules were introduced in France there was a spate of UK drivers being stopped just outside Calais or Boulogne for not having the yellow vest within reaching distance of the drivers seat. A lot of complaints were made because although drivers had them in the car, if they were on the back parcel shelf or back seat and you couldn't reach it then you were breaking the law. The French police basically just stood by the side of the road and stopped every British and Irish car that came through to check. To be fair on the police when you look at the reports it appears that most of the time they then just warned the drivers rather than fining them.

    I do suspect that in one of those ironic twists given the protests, these days they might be doing people for owning yellow vests rather than not having them.
    Seems fair enough if they are new rules to ensure people who are less likely to know them do so. I wouldn't be happy if they fined them though as that would smack of revenue generating rather than proving a service, but if they didn't then that seems sensible.

    Liked the irony comment on the yellow vest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Surely the way to avoid this is to stick to the speed limit...!
    If only it were that simple. Plenty of their tactics are very underhanded - from burying speed limit signs in hedgerows, inexplicable 60 signs on motorways 2km before the toll booth that everyone ignores, to just outright making up the speed they tell the driver he was going.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Thank you @david_herdson.

    I think you are altogether too optimistic about the vaccination programme.

    Anyway, yesterday marked the day when I officially became Chair of Trustees of a London primary school. The one I went to in fact. It taught me a lot - not just what you'd expect from a good school but what to aspire to if you want to try to be a good person. So it feels right to be giving something back.

    And this morning I have urgent calls with the Headmistress re the plans for online learning.

    The mess Gavin Williamson is making of everything does not give me confidence in the vaccination programme or anything else this government touches, frankly. I am not a scientist but the idea of mixing and matching vaccines sounds peculiar. What is the scientific basis for it? What are the risks?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    edited January 2021

    Off topic

    It is not.

    Several years ago I cleared my late father's house out of repeat prescriptions. Amongst the multiple 500 packs of Paracetamol, I found enough Tramadol to shame a Columbian drugs cartel.

    On returning the items to the pharmacy I was told I could not reduce the delivery schedule on his behalf due to having no authority so to do. When I cleared the house out post-mortem for the final time, I returned several more carrier bags of unused medication.

    It is a dangerous scandal.
    It's one of those schemes which when well-managed, works well, and when it isn't, doesn't. I used to come across it quite often; when I saw it in Care Homes it was generally OK, because there was a member of staff there to take action. However every so often I would come across a case out in the community like Mr MP's. I also came across pharmacists who. I'm sorry to say, 'took the money' and ran but also across colleagues who regularly raised objections with the prescribing surgery but were ignored.
    Indeed on one occasion I was personally told by the surgery staff that 'nothing could be done'; a somewhat angry exchange followed, witnessed by a senior Social Services staffer who was totally amazed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    Roger said:

    Bravo!

    Any idea who is behind it?

    Really inspired. They got it spot on
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Sandpit said:

    If only it were that simple. Plenty of their tactics are very underhanded - from burying speed limit signs in hedgerows, inexplicable 60 signs on motorways 2km before the toll booth that everyone ignores, to just outright making up the speed they tell the driver he was going.
    They never patrol the miles before that sudden 60 sign, so you just need to come off super speed before you get to it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    GG brings new meaning to ‘single handedly’.

    https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1345310586658312192?s=21

    Well I would vote for Alliance for Unity on the list over the SNP too
  • You seem very angry with the EU this morning. Perhaps we should try to leave.
    A lot of the workingness of the UK's new arrangements depends on whether the EU acts in ways that are helpful to the UK.

    If the EU sticks to the rules (and a lot if their strength comes from sticking to rules), some people in the UK are going to get very cross with them.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    MattW said:

    The Le Monde account is far more interesting:

    https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2021/01/01/comment-ca-va-se-passer-s-il-faut-les-deloger-plus-de-2-500-fetards-rassembles-en-bretagne-pour-une-rave-party-sauvage_6064994_3224.html

    I love that the Local Health Authority is called ARS. Wonder if they employ the Proctologists?
    The difference between city police and country police in France seems more extreme than in the UK. Just their uniforms and equipment in the cities makes me think that I don't want to mess with them (not that I would). And there seem to be so many of them in the cities, often in a group chatting.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    edited January 2021

    Off topic

    It is not.

    Several years ago I cleared my late father's house out of repeat prescriptions. Amongst the multiple 500 packs of Paracetamol, I found enough Tramadol to shame a Columbian drugs cartel.

    On returning the items to the pharmacy I was told I could not reduce the delivery schedule on his behalf due to having no authority so to do. When I cleared the house out post-mortem for the final time, I returned several more carrier bags of unused medication.

    It is a dangerous scandal.
    Morning G, Crazy to pre-deliver stuff without contact, though I suppose some people have shedloads on regular basis. At least having to phone up to order means you cut a lot of the waste out. They also don't let you phone up the next week and order another one, they will do it a week or so early but don't allow abuse of system.

    PS: Morning to MexicanPete as well, in my top favourite posters
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    HYUFD said:

    Well I would vote for Alliance for Unity on the list over the SNP too
    HYUFD are you saying you could actually vote for a non Conservative candidate?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    I suspect he always did vote Tory. Even against himself.
    He is such a diddy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    You seem very angry with the EU this morning. Perhaps we should try to leave.
    Leavers have made careers out of empty gestures. They don't want the French getting in on the act
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Interesting set of predictions from David H, hopefully by Spring the vaccinations will be well under way.

    In May I expect the Tories to make some losses in the county elections to Labour where they had an 11% lead in 2017 but do better in the district elections which were neck and neck in 2016. In London Labour will do well but less so in Wales.

    In Scotland if Sturgeon fails to win an SNP majority and can only continue with the support of the Greens that would be a major blow to her authority and lead to calls for a leadership challenge from the SNP as well as enabling Boris to easily dismiss any calls for indyref2.

    Biden I think will be a pragmatic President and probably the most centrist incoming President since Bush Snr, that will lead to some murmurings on the left of the Democrats but relative calm for the rest of the country with Trump murmuring resistance from Florida on occasion. I think the likeliest outcome on Tuesday in Georgia is Warnock wins and Purdue wins, both were ahead in the first round and the Senate ends up 51 - 49 with Collins or Romney having the casting vote again reflecting a shift in the US to the centre isolating the Trumpite right and the AOC left.

    In Germany if Merz or Soder end up the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for September's Federal elections that would see a clear shift to the right for the Union from Merkel
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Well I would vote for Alliance for Unity on the list over the SNP too
    Well you won’t be able to vote for anyone.

    POHYUFDWAS
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting set of predictions from David H, hopefully by Spring the vaccinations will be well under way.

    In May I expect the Tories to make some losses in the county elections to Labour where they had an 11% lead in 2017 but do better in the district elections which were neck and neck in 2016. In London Labour will do well but less so in Wales.

    In Scotland if Sturgeon fails to win an SNP majority and can only continue with the support of the Greens that would be a major blow to her authority and lead to calls for a leadership challenge from the SNP as well as enabling Boris to easily dismiss any calls for indyref2.

    Biden I think will be a pragmatic President and probably the most centrist incoming President since Bush Snr, that will lead to some murmurings on the left of the Democrats but relative calm for the rest of the country with Trump murmuring resistance from Florida on occasion. I think the likeliest outcome on Tuesday in Georgia is Warnock wins and Purdue wins, both were ahead in the first round and the Senate ends up 51 - 49 with Collins or Romney having the casting vote again reflecting a shift in the US to the centre isolating the Trumpite right and the AOC left.

    In Germany if Merz or Soder end up the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for September's Federal elections that would see a clear shift to the right for the Union from Merkel

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    malcolmg said:

    Morning G, Crazy to pre-deliver stuff without contact, though I suppose some people have shedloads on regular basis. At least having to phone up to order means you cut a lot of the waste out. They also don't let you phone up the next week and order another one, they will do it a week or so early but don't allow abuse of system.

    PS: Morning to MexicanPete as well, in my top favourite posters
    That's what I mean by well-managed. Scotlands pharmacy service always seemed to me to be better organised than those in England, although it could be that I only spoke to, and read of, the 'good' people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence?
    There is already an SNP and Green majority in Scotland at Holyrood from 2016 before Brexit, if Sturgeon cannot even use Brexit to produce an SNP outright majority as the SNP had in 2011 before the 2014 referendum then Sturgeon would face a May 2017 style humiliation and there would be serious murmurings within the SNP from Cherry and Salmondites for a leadership challenge
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    You seem very angry with the EU this morning. Perhaps we should try to leave.
    Not abnormally angry, no.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    'If you look at increases per country over the last seven days and cases per 100 000, in Scotland you are sitting at around 160, in Wales they are well up over 400 and heading towards 500. In England about 440 and Northern Ireland 370.' Prof Bauld but buried in Scotland's media 'Hospital ICU capacity in Scotland is still in a pretty good state and we have already committed to being able to double that if we have to.' Professor Linda Bauld today in the Herald but nowhere else in Scotland's media.
    If you only looked at BBC propaganda you would believe we are the opposite.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    Ironically, it might be better to vaccinate the youth first as they are the most likely transmitters...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    kjh said:

    HYUFD are you saying you could actually vote for a non Conservative candidate?
    On the list if I voted Tory on the constituency maybe if that was the best way of denying SNP MSPs, or for Labour or the LDs on the constituency vote if they were the main alternative to the SNP then Tory on the list
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    eek said:

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence?
    They do, so if Boris tried to prevent a referendum on the grounds of the SNP alone not having a majority it would look like trying to wiggle out on a technicality. The right thing would be to allow a referendum in 2022, but for Westminster to insist on a sensible voting franchise (i.e. not allowing children or EU citizens to vote, some provision for Scots elsewhere in the UK/abroad). With a Brexit deal now done, I don't think a 'Yes' vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103



    Well you won’t be able to vote for anyone.

    POHYUFDWAS
    Imagine admitting you would vote for that bunch of toerags, an even nastier bunch than the Tories.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    Not abnormally angry, no.....
    Do we assume this is your normal level of anger with the EU then? :wink:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    A few years ago just after the new rules were introduced in France there was a spate of UK drivers being stopped just outside Calais or Boulogne for not having the yellow vest within reaching distance of the drivers seat. A lot of complaints were made because although drivers had them in the car, if they were on the back parcel shelf or back seat and you couldn't reach it then you were breaking the law. The French police basically just stood by the side of the road and stopped every British and Irish car that came through to check. To be fair on the police when you look at the reports it appears that most of the time they then just warned the drivers rather than fining them.

    I do suspect that in one of those ironic twists given the protests, these days they might be doing people for owning yellow vests rather than not having them.
    One of my friends used to drive a lot between the UK and his places in Brittany and from there to various locations in Europe for shooting competitions.

    He got stopped going round the motorway around Caen in Normandy by the police for a routine check.

    The police said open your boot

    He said ok I will but ...... then explained that his boot had a number of guns in it.

    Luckily he had the permits and it was all resolved with no problems but he said there was a dodgy moment when the police triggered on "guns"

    Incidentally he said it was much easier keeping his guns in France and travelling from there rather than keeping them in UK
  • malcolmg said:

    'If you look at increases per country over the last seven days and cases per 100 000, in Scotland you are sitting at around 160, in Wales they are well up over 400 and heading towards 500. In England about 440 and Northern Ireland 370.' Prof Bauld but buried in Scotland's media 'Hospital ICU capacity in Scotland is still in a pretty good state and we have already committed to being able to double that if we have to.' Professor Linda Bauld today in the Herald but nowhere else in Scotland's media.
    If you only looked at BBC propaganda you would believe we are the opposite.

    The wife of one of my work colleagues works in a hospital in Dundee and they have been taking ICU patients from North East England to help ease the pressure there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,683
    edited January 2021
    Poor Jose.

    Time to relegate Spurs and West Ham.

    https://twitter.com/mailsport/status/1345322206746845184?s=21
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Thanks for doing all this work at my request.

    I did some calculations myself last night (though I did not use a 7 day window), and also noted the fact that Scotland has the highest positivity rate (for reasons that are not very clear to me).

    For Wales, there are days with very high positivity rates, so I am surprised by your Welsh graph which is rather low.

    How are you calculating it? By averaging Pillar 1/ All Pillars over the last 7 days?
    Sorry for confusing matters by going for tests divided by cases rather than the other way round. I didn't do the latter because a positivity percentage should use the number of people tested rather than the overall number of tests, which includes people having multiple tests.

    So test coverage in Wales has been consistently bad in the last few weeks, whereas the others have rapidly been getting worse. I think that's mostly a function of the case numbers themselves.

    I used the number of cases reported per day, and the the "All Pillars" testing numbers from the nation-specific subpages of https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited January 2021
    David's confident assertion that Brexit is done as a political issue is contradicted by the comments to his own article. Brexit, relations with the European Union and its place in the world, may not be of huge interest to the man that might be on the Clapham omnibus if it weren't for the plague, but it was, is and will be THE defining political issue for the UK. Not least because Boris Johnson will ensure it stays that way.

    And you don't get more political than what your country is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Essexit said:

    They do, so if Boris tried to prevent a referendum on the grounds of the SNP alone not having a majority it would look like trying to wiggle out on a technicality. The right thing would be to allow a referendum in 2022, but for Westminster to insist on a sensible voting franchise (i.e. not allowing children or EU citizens to vote, some provision for Scots elsewhere in the UK/abroad). With a Brexit deal now done, I don't think a 'Yes' vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
    May refused an independence referendum despite an SNP and Green majority without a murmur, indyref 2014 only happened as Salmond won an outright SNP majority in 2011, if Sturgeon cannot even repeat that despite Brexit she would be humiliated and Boris would easily brush her off
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Essexit said:

    They do, so if Boris tried to prevent a referendum on the grounds of the SNP alone not having a majority it would look like trying to wiggle out on a technicality. The right thing would be to allow a referendum in 2022, but for Westminster to insist on a sensible voting franchise (i.e. not allowing children or EU citizens to vote, some provision for Scots elsewhere in the UK/abroad). With a Brexit deal now done, I don't think a 'Yes' vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
    What has it got to do with people outside Scotland, only a dummy could imagine that is democratic. To try and pretend that would be sensible makes it certain they are also really stupid , against democracy and obviously a unionist.
    You missed counting non voters and dead people as NO.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    edited January 2021
    Essexit said:

    They do, so if Boris tried to prevent a referendum on the grounds of the SNP alone not having a majority it would look like trying to wiggle out on a technicality. The right thing would be to allow a referendum in 2022, but for Westminster to insist on a sensible voting franchise (i.e. not allowing children or EU citizens to vote, some provision for Scots elsewhere in the UK/abroad). With a Brexit deal now done, I don't think a 'Yes' vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
    If you fix the referendum in your favour I don’t think a ‘Yes’ vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012

    Aren't the French police normally more interested in knowing if you have the yellow vest, the breathalyser, the funny wing mirrors and all the other nonsense required to drive in France?

    Just don't mess with the police in any Country . You are asking for it.if you do.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    Essexit said:

    They do, so if Boris tried to prevent a referendum on the grounds of the SNP alone not having a majority it would look like trying to wiggle out on a technicality. The right thing would be to allow a referendum in 2022, but for Westminster to insist on a sensible voting franchise (i.e. not allowing children or EU citizens to vote, some provision for Scots elsewhere in the UK/abroad). With a Brexit deal now done, I don't think a 'Yes' vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
    Well, the SNP would, publicly anyway, wouldn't they? And why should 'children'...... 16 year olds not vote? It's their future.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,510

    Even by your tortured mind, malcy, a bit of a stretch to get there!
    Anyway he forgot Flodden.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    Floater said:

    One of my friends used to drive a lot between the UK and his places in Brittany and from there to various locations in Europe for shooting competitions.

    He got stopped going round the motorway around Caen in Normandy by the police for a routine check.

    The police said open your boot

    He said ok I will but ...... then explained that his boot had a number of guns in it.

    Luckily he had the permits and it was all resolved with no problems but he said there was a dodgy moment when the police triggered on "guns"

    Incidentally he said it was much easier keeping his guns in France and travelling from there rather than keeping them in UK
    I was once in a friend's house many, many years ago who was a competitive pistol shooter. He was showing me his pistols one early evening. The doorbell rang and it was a policeman who was making a routine call on something completely unrelated. You could see his eyes flipping between passing on the information and the pistols and looking apprehensive until an explanation was given and sighs of relief were passed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    If you fix the referendum in your favour I don’t think a ‘Yes’ vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
    TUD, they have a pretty weird view on democracy for sure, they are not bright enough to put their rigged voting ideas across in any subtle way. Might as well say give them a vote and cheat to make sure they lose.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Fishing said:

    Anyway he forgot Flodden.
    Also the dodgy World Cup win
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Floater said:

    One of my friends used to drive a lot between the UK and his places in Brittany and from there to various locations in Europe for shooting competitions.

    He got stopped going round the motorway around Caen in Normandy by the police for a routine check.

    The police said open your boot

    He said ok I will but ...... then explained that his boot had a number of guns in it.

    Luckily he had the permits and it was all resolved with no problems but he said there was a dodgy moment when the police triggered on "guns"

    Incidentally he said it was much easier keeping his guns in France and travelling from there rather than keeping them in UK
    French, or at least a chunk of them, are hunting mad.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    HYUFD said:

    May refused an independence referendum despite an SNP and Green majority without a murmur, indyref 2014 only happened as Salmond won an outright SNP majority in 2011, if Sturgeon cannot even repeat that despite Brexit she would be humiliated and Boris would easily brush her off
    Brexit wasn't finalised then. If the SNP and Greens win a majority between them and both have included a secession referendum in their manifestos I don't see how it can be refused for very long.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited January 2021
    Essexit said:

    Brexit wasn't finalised then. If the SNP and Greens win a majority between them and both have included a secession referendum in their manifestos I don't see how it can be refused for very long.
    It will be refused, Sturgeon asked for a referendum as soon as the Leave vote came in on the basis that the very act of the UK voting for leaving the EU and Scotland voting to remain in the EU made the case for indyref2 and the SNP and the Greens had a majority at that time already.

    If the SNP fail to even match the majority they won in 2011 despite Brexit there is zero chance Boris and this Tory government will agree indyref2 and then Cherry etc will begin the process of a leadership challenge to Sturgeon within the SNP.

    There is little chance of Boris granting indyref2 even with an SNP majority in my view, if there is no SNP majority at all there is zero chance
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    If you fix the referendum in your favour I don’t think a ‘Yes’ vote is as inevitable as the SNP clearly do.
    If you try to fix the result in your favour and you still can’t get a yes vote you clearly aren’t very good at fraud. :smile:
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965

    Well, the SNP would, publicly anyway, wouldn't they? And why should 'children'...... 16 year olds not vote? It's their future.
    16 and 17 year olds should not be allowed to vote because we've quite sensibly judged they're not mature enough to. Why not extend this logic to enfranchising 4 year olds? And it's lots of people's future, including everyone else in the UK, but I wouldn't suggest I should get a vote.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    The wife of one of my work colleagues works in a hospital in Dundee and they have been taking ICU patients from North East England to help ease the pressure there.
    Good to hear Richard. Hopefully our numbers are not just behind in schedule and stay lower, keep dropping.
    Assume once England/Wales/NI have a month 's lockdown they will hopefully drop as well. Concerned that system will cope with number of patients though and they may well get to stage where they have to pick and choose who gets treatment, if not there already.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    edited January 2021
    BBC says that EuroMillions: Jackpot of more than £39m has been won by UK ticket-holder.

    Will we still be able to buy EuroMillions tickets?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,672
    edited January 2021
    Hah.

    Just listening to the World Service version of "The Corresponents Look Ahead". Far more cosmopolitan than the R4 one.

    Quote of the programme so far:

    "The data published by the Russian government ... is not widely trusted in Russia."

    Here (bonus episodes back to 2010):
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p005kvgt/episodes/guide
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Essexit said:

    16 and 17 year olds should not be allowed to vote because we've quite sensibly judged they're not mature enough to. Why not extend this logic to enfranchising 4 year olds? And it's lots of people's future, including everyone else in the UK, but I wouldn't suggest I should get a vote.
    You blathering idiot , you are talking about England. In civilised countries , ie like Scotland , they can vote in elections.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    Not abnormally angry, no.....
    So leaving did nothing to abate the anger? That's unfortunate.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965
    malcolmg said:

    You blathering idiot , you are talking about England. In civilised countries , ie like Scotland , they can vote in elections.
    When Scotland is part of a UK election, no they can't and rightly so. It's a hallmark of corrupt, lazy politicians to adjust the voting franchise purely to suit their own short-term political objectives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited January 2021
    Who on earth is floating these hare brained plans ?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,508
    edited January 2021
    malcolmg said:

    Good to hear Richard. Hopefully our numbers are not just behind in schedule and stay lower, keep dropping.
    Assume once England/Wales/NI have a month 's lockdown they will hopefully drop as well. Concerned that system will cope with number of patients though and they may well get to stage where they have to pick and choose who gets treatment, if not there already.
    Not sure where you got the figures from for Wales. Wales' figures have been dropping for at least 14 days now. They were at 600+ per 100,000 but they are now at 450 and dropping.

    Also Wales has been locked down since 20th December as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Essexit said:

    When Scotland is part of a UK election, no they can't and rightly so. It's a hallmark of corrupt, lazy politicians to adjust the voting franchise purely to suit their own short-term political objectives.
    Are you suggesting that the whole UK should vote on it?
This discussion has been closed.