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David Herdson’s 2021 predictions – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited January 2021 in General
imageDavid Herdson’s 2021 predictions – politicalbetting.com

So that was Brexit. The defining political issue in the UK of the last half-decade is now done. Not that the story entirely ends there. Brexit was just one more chapter in the long story of Britain’s relationship with the continent, and as that geographic fact remains, so must the further development of that story. But not with the same intensity for the time being. 2021 will be the first year in several where domestic politics will not be dominated and defined by Europe.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Second!

    Interesting set of predictions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Alasdair_ said:

    Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.

    A good question, especially given that many of the elections scheduled for this year were originally postponed from 2020. I think it more likely they’ll run as all-postal votes, with a socially-distanced count, at least in most of England. London, Scotland and Wales may be more challenging to arrange, as their elections will have a higher turnout.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889
    I sense that Mr Herdson is joining young HY in thinking that Brexit is going to be a defining issue as we go forward. I think not. Instead the key issue will be the way that this shambolic Johnson government has been managing the Brexit process. And also of course how it has been handling the Covid crisis.

    Even though we may disagree on the question of which policies are best for the country, I am sure everybody expects any government to rule with competence and honesty. Once the dust has started to settle over Brexit and Covid, the public will start to realise just how useless the Conservative Party has been in government. And this will have an impact on Conservative candidates at all levels, because they did nothing to change the way things were going.

    All they have to say for themselves is "But at least Boris is fun!"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. P, that *should* be the case. The political polarisation that's occurred recently coupled, perhaps, with the lingering distaste of Corbynism may mean it doesn't.

    Conservative MPs should toss the imbecile overboard at the first opportunity. If they faff about too long the cure will be too late to be electorally effective.

    Sadly, I agree with the header's comment on Russia and China playing silly buggers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ClippP said:

    I sense that Mr Herdson is joining young HY in thinking that Brexit is going to be a defining issue as we go forward. I think not. Instead the key issue will be the way that this shambolic Johnson government has been managing the Brexit process. And also of course how it has been handling the Covid crisis.

    Even though we may disagree on the question of which policies are best for the country, I am sure everybody expects any government to rule with competence and honesty. Once the dust has started to settle over Brexit and Covid, the public will start to realise just how useless the Conservative Party has been in government. And this will have an impact on Conservative candidates at all levels, because they did nothing to change the way things were going.

    All they have to say for themselves is "But at least Boris is fun!"

    ClippP said:

    I sense that Mr Herdson is joining young HY in thinking that Brexit is going to be a defining issue as we go forward. I think not. Instead the key issue will be the way that this shambolic Johnson government has been managing the Brexit process. And also of course how it has been handling the Covid crisis.

    Even though we may disagree on the question of which policies are best for the country, I am sure everybody expects any government to rule with competence and honesty. Once the dust has started to settle over Brexit and Covid, the public will start to realise just how useless the Conservative Party has been in government. And this will have an impact on Conservative candidates at all levels, because they did nothing to change the way things were going.

    All they have to say for themselves is "But at least Boris is fun!"

    Something no-one could ever accuse you of being. Or of being right.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alasdair_ said:

    Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.

    I'm sorry there are too many Alistairs (iterate on the spelling however you like) on this blog now.

    We need some kind of system
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Alistair said:

    Alasdair_ said:

    Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.

    I'm sorry there are too many Alistairs (iterate on the spelling however you like) on this blog now.

    We need some kind of system
    Peter from Putney and Peter the Punter always gets me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited January 2021
    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Alistair said:

    Alasdair_ said:

    Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.

    I'm sorry there are too many Alistairs (iterate on the spelling however you like) on this blog now.

    We need some kind of system
    Peter from Putney and Peter the Punter always gets me.
    Me too and worse still they're quite different on the political spectrum I think.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ClippP said:

    .

    Even though we may disagree on the question of which policies are best for the country, I am sure everybody expects any government to rule with competence and honesty. Once the dust has started to settle over Brexit and Covid, the public will start to realise just how useless the Conservative Party has been in government. And this will have an impact on Conservative candidates at all levels, because they did nothing to change the way things were going.

    All they have to say for themselves is "But at least Boris is fun!"

    I think this is probably correct. The Johnson Government is the epitome of omnishambles. How BJ can leave someone like Gavin Williamson in office is beyond me. Except of course that he was instrumental in the leadership election and chumocracy trumps competence.

    However. People are gullible and I'm not yet convinced that Starmer's Labour have what it takes to regain power. When the next election comes around people will be focused on whether they are likely to be better off and whether Johnson saw off the virus. I suspect the answer to both will be, 'yes'.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    ClippP said:

    .

    Even though we may disagree on the question of which policies are best for the country, I am sure everybody expects any government to rule with competence and honesty. Once the dust has started to settle over Brexit and Covid, the public will start to realise just how useless the Conservative Party has been in government. And this will have an impact on Conservative candidates at all levels, because they did nothing to change the way things were going.

    All they have to say for themselves is "But at least Boris is fun!"

    I think this is probably correct. The Johnson Government is the epitome of omnishambles. How BJ can leave someone like Gavin Williamson in office is beyond me. Except of course that he was instrumental in the leadership election and chumocracy trumps competence.

    However. People are gullible and I'm not yet convinced that Starmer's Labour have what it takes to regain power. When the next election comes around people will be focused on whether they are likely to be better off and whether Johnson saw off the virus. I suspect the answer to both will be, 'yes'.
    Enormously difficult to predict anything these days I limit myself mostly to predicting the weather here is SE Spain where if I say 'sunny and pleasant' I'm correct on around 320 days a year! :smiley:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Boris Johnson Exit Date:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/multi-market?marketIds=1.160683973

    Back prices:
    2021 3.25
    2022 6.4
    2023 6.4
    2024+ 2.28

    I’m inclined towards the middle options, and think he probably goes late 2022, following disasterous 2022 local elections and a dozen points behind in the polls.

    That said, his political opponents tend to forget the 80-seat majority, so the only people whose opinions really count for anything are Tory MPs.

    I think the tipping point will be when a clear successor is identified - and as ever in this market, laying the favourite is the way to go - currently Rishi Sunak at 3.6 to lay. His life is going to get a whole load more difficult as time progresses. The outsider with an obvious actual chance to back is probably Truss at 16.5.

    Next Con Leader market: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/multi-market?marketIds=1.160663234
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    While the amount of antivax sentiment is perplexing, the biggest problem in the UK is supply. That is why we have decided to go off piste and do single shots. We do at least have good existing infrastructure in the NHS for a vaccination programme. Parts of the EU do, such as the Netherlands and Scandinavia, but the decentralised, private healthcare systems prevalent across most of the continent will struggle organisationally. This graph is for flu vaccinations for vulnerable groupings, but I expect covid vaccination rates to look similar in 6 months time.


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.


    There's "talent" and there's Gavin Williamson, a man who seems incapable of anticipating entirely predictable outcomes that are even more than a few hours into the future.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Sadly it does appear that the virus is still winning.

    One of my worrying thoughts about Q1, is that there’s going to be some naked and ugly international politics played around the vaccine production and distribution in developed countries. I’m thinking governments sequestering factory output for domestic use, export bans etc.

    On the other hand, it looks like the Oxford vaccine is about to be approved in India - and they have a mega-factory ready to go, that can make over 100m doses a month.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited January 2021

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Sadly it does appear that the virus is still winning.

    One of my worrying thoughts about Q1, is that there’s going to be some naked and ugly international politics played around the vaccine production and distribution in developed countries. I’m thinking governments sequestering factory output for domestic use, export bans etc.

    On the other hand, it looks like the Oxford vaccine is about to be approved in India - and they have a mega-factory ready to go, that can make over 100m doses a month.
    The other issue i guess is that we've heard all about how some countries are at the head of the queue due to their early ordering whereas others are further down the line. If there really are bottlenecks at the production stage then those down the line are increasingly looking at the never never.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited January 2021
    alex_ said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Sadly it does appear that the virus is still winning.

    One of my worrying thoughts about Q1, is that there’s going to be some naked and ugly international politics played around the vaccine production and distribution in developed countries. I’m thinking governments sequestering factory output for domestic use, export bans etc.

    On the other hand, it looks like the Oxford vaccine is about to be approved in India - and they have a mega-factory ready to go, that can make over 100m doses a month.
    The other issue i guess is that we've heard all about how some countries are at the head of the queue due to their early ordering whereas others are further down the line. If there really are bottlenecks at the production stage then those down the line are increasingly looking at the never never.
    Well we are already seeing heated semantic arguments between government ministers and vaccine manufacturers, about how many doses have been either produced, packaged, authorised, distributed or used, with the same word meaning different things to different people.

    The next month or two is going to be the ramp-up phase which, as with testing and PPE back in March and April, will get there in the end but be a bumpy ride along the way.

    Some countries (waves at the EU, among others), appear to have prioritised price over delivery date. That’s going to look, to their peoples, like the wrong strategy as time passes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,805
    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited January 2021
    One attempt at collating vaccine rollout data in the same way as testing data.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Not yet at the same quality of reporting though, many countries are not providing updates frequently if at all.


  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    I thought that’s what computers were for everything in one place accessible from multiple points including by the patient, doesn’t every modern health service have this facility?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step-up-covid-jabs-after-claims-of-bowing-to-anti-vaxxers

    Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).

    One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step-up-covid-jabs-after-claims-of-bowing-to-anti-vaxxers

    Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).

    One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
    Time for the Gunboats?

    What i guess will really be the game changer is when we have several vaccines in approval. Pfizer are getting heat in large part because they are responsible for nearly the entireity of Western supply.
  • Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step-up-covid-jabs-after-claims-of-bowing-to-anti-vaxxers

    Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).

    One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
    Lets be honest, if the vaccines were being manufactured here and exported elsewhere there would be plenty on here suggesting or even demanding commandeering them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    I thought that’s what computers were for everything in one place accessible from multiple points including by the patient, doesn’t every modern health service have this facility?
    Not many places have national healthcare records systems - they’re usually held at a a much more local level.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    I thought that’s what computers were for everything in one place accessible from multiple points including by the patient, doesn’t every modern health service have this facility?
    No. I do a lot of work with diabetes, and because of the GP system, get updates on numbers of people with the diagnosis, including personal demographic data. This is updated daily, so I can track and plan services for the 76 000 with diabetes in Leics and Rutland.

    When I go to conferences, apart from the Scandinavians none of my international peers has anything like the quality of data. Apart from occasional epidemiological surveys they don't generally even know how many they have, nor what their current issues are. It is a different style of practice. While care can be excellent, it can also be very patchy, and diabetes care amongst the poor in America is truly appalling.

    GP registers are a major strength of the UK public health system. Fragmented privatised care has some utility, over centralised systems, but when it comes to systematic planning of a vaccine programme, it is no contest.
  • RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    Funny how forgiving and accepting we are of the NHS in saying it can only cope with x number of covid patients but jump on vaccine makers (who have only gone and invented one in double quick time) for not being able to supply huge numbers immediatly (if that is the case)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited January 2021
    A credible set of predictions from Mr H, but with one assumption slipped quietly in there that is challengeable - that interest rates will follow inflation upwards.

    This may happen, and if it does, will bring on serious pain (both individual and governmental) given how reliant we are on debt, both public and private; more so than in 2008.

    But - and partly for the above reason - I don't think this would happen. More likely, we will face an experiment with negative real interest rates (for which the BoE is already preparing), with inflation rising through the single digits while interest rates remain on the floor.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Potentially interesting development:
    https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1345143277541077001

    Unlike his lockdown scepticism, I think Farage is likely onto a winner making opposition to China his next shtick.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    I thought that’s what computers were for everything in one place accessible from multiple points including by the patient, doesn’t every modern health service have this facility?
    No. I do a lot of work with diabetes, and because of the GP system, get updates on numbers of people with the diagnosis, including personal demographic data. This is updated daily, so I can track and plan services for the 76 000 with diabetes in Leics and Rutland.

    When I go to conferences, apart from the Scandinavians none of my international peers has anything like the quality of data. Apart from occasional epidemiological surveys they don't generally even know how many they have, nor what their current issues are. It is a different style of practice. While care can be excellent, it can also be very patchy, and diabetes care amongst the poor in America is truly appalling.

    GP registers are a major strength of the UK public health system. Fragmented privatised care has some utility, over centralised systems, but when it comes to systematic planning of a vaccine programme, it is no contest.
    I can see almost all of my medical records, as to whether this results in any analysis is a different matter. It does save carrying around large quantities of paper.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    I only keep a lazy eye on football, having dabbled briefly in betting on it (not too badly, but not great either) last year, but surprised to see Manchester United doing so well.

    Still nearly three months until F1 returns. Annoyingly, the 2021 calendar will include the rubbish circuits mostly absent from the 2020 season.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited January 2021

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited January 2021
    R4 meteorologist suggesting another Best from the East might be forming due mid to late Jan
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Sandpit, aye, it's dopey as fuck.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    IanB2 said:

    R4 meteorologist suggesting another Best from the East might be forming due mid to late Jan

    Well, at least that would resolve the school situation for a few days anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Doethur, the media will be confused.

    "If there's a tier 73 lockdown, but really bad weather, is there travel chaos? My god, what headline are we meant to use now?!"
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    In this day and age every country in the deleoped world at least really ought to have centralised digital health records for everyone on which everything is recorded instantly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Mr. Doethur, the media will be confused.

    "If there's a tier 73 lockdown, but really bad weather, is there travel chaos? My god, what headline are we meant to use now?!"

    I’m guessing the Sun will go with ‘it snow help.’
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    Gosh. Lots of anecdotal evidence that political correctness has gone mad. Wonders will never cease.

    Not much changes round here, does it?
  • Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    Sainsburys, Tesco, Asda and Boots have a vast network of already trained and licensed jabbers. Are we using them yet?
  • Alasdair_ said:

    Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.

    Was discussing that with Labour friends on NYE. I don't see how they could hold open elections in the midst of this, and they need to make the decision in late February or so when we're still likely to be in a mess.

    100% postal...?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    edited January 2021
    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    I thought that’s what computers were for everything in one place accessible from multiple points including by the patient, doesn’t every modern health service have this facility?
    No. I do a lot of work with diabetes, and because of the GP system, get updates on numbers of people with the diagnosis, including personal demographic data. This is updated daily, so I can track and plan services for the 76 000 with diabetes in Leics and Rutland.

    When I go to conferences, apart from the Scandinavians none of my international peers has anything like the quality of data. Apart from occasional epidemiological surveys they don't generally even know how many they have, nor what their current issues are. It is a different style of practice. While care can be excellent, it can also be very patchy, and diabetes care amongst the poor in America is truly appalling.

    GP registers are a major strength of the UK public health system. Fragmented privatised care has some utility, over centralised systems, but when it comes to systematic planning of a vaccine programme, it is no contest.
    I can see almost all of my medical records, as to whether this results in any analysis is a different matter. It does save carrying around large quantities of paper.
    Yes - the Spanish centralised prescription reords are also very handy right now. Simple phonecall and instant 3 months renewal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Alasdair_ said:

    Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.

    Was discussing that with Labour friends on NYE. I don't see how they could hold open elections in the midst of this, and they need to make the decision in late February or so when we're still likely to be in a mess.

    100% postal...?
    They might be jumpy about telling people to go postal on politics right now.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    Gosh. Lots of anecdotal evidence that political correctness has gone mad. Wonders will never cease.

    Not much changes round here, does it?
    It's a welcome change from yesterday's anecdotes about the whole country on a massive bender apart from the millions of lorries queuing up at Dover!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    edited January 2021

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step-up-covid-jabs-after-claims-of-bowing-to-anti-vaxxers

    Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).

    One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
    Lets be honest, if the vaccines were being manufactured here and exported elsewhere there would be plenty on here suggesting or even demanding commandeering them.
    I don't think any usual Govt here would do it; UK Govts are usually properly bound by law.

    That's why we have so many activist lawyers :smile: - because it works. If it did not, Jolyon Maugham wouldn't be doing so much pratting around in public between auditioning for the new blockbuster film "Carry on Suburban Samurai".

    Whereas Mr Macron already has when he ordered PPE confiscated which was due by contract to a whole series of countries. UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland to name just seven.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step-up-covid-jabs-after-claims-of-bowing-to-anti-vaxxers

    Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).

    One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
    Lets be honest, if the vaccines were being manufactured here and exported elsewhere there would be plenty on here suggesting or even demanding commandeering them.
    I don't think any usual Govt here would do it; UK Govts are usually properly bound by law.

    That's why we have so many activist lawyers :smile: - because it works. If it did not, Jolyon Maugham wouldn't be doing so much pratting around.

    Whereas Mr Macron already has when he ordered PPE confiscated which was due by contract to a whole series of countries. UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland to name just seven.
    Interested to read that Barnier may be about to challene Macron for the French Presidency - a shift from a dry stick to a cold fish?
  • MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step-up-covid-jabs-after-claims-of-bowing-to-anti-vaxxers

    Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).

    One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
    Lets be honest, if the vaccines were being manufactured here and exported elsewhere there would be plenty on here suggesting or even demanding commandeering them.
    I don't think any usual Govt here would do it; UK Govts are usually properly bound by law.

    That's why we have so many activist lawyers :smile: - because it works. If it did not, Jolyon Maugham wouldn't be doing so much pratting around in between auditioning for the Hollywood Blockbuster "Suburban Samurai".

    Whereas Mr Macron already has when he ordered PPE confiscated which was due by contract to a whole series of countries. UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland to name just seven.
    Surely it would be breaking the law only in a limited and specific way? What is the case such a breach would be universal and general?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Or take the Trigger's Broom approach - buy an okish bike, upgrade it piece by piece as you learn. By the time you have replaced the wheels, the bottom bracket, the pedals, the seat, the handlebars, the front gears, the back gears, the frame...

    I had tremendous fun as a kid learning mechanical engineering from slowly turning shop bought bikes into what I wanted. Spent hours carefully adjust bearings to "just so"....

    This isn't really a viable approach for any other than the truly committed these days for a few reasons.

    Bike parts are very expensive at retail now compared to what the OEMs pay. The rear derailleur I replaced following my recent accident was 400 quid!

    Plethora of competing standards and technologies means that you need a critical mass of knowledge and tools. Off the top of my head I can think of the following Bottom Bracket standards: British and Italian threaded,BB90,BB95,PF86,PF92,BB30, OSBB (road and MTB), BB30A, PF30, BBRight, BB386 EVO, SRAM DUB and "Spanish" press fit for BMXs. There's probably more.

    Bike frames are now vertically stratified in a way that they never used to be. A low end frame may not be upgradable to thru-axles from drop outs, hydraulic discs from calipers or electronic shifting from the previously prevalent Edwardian technology of Bowden cables.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    I thought that’s what computers were for everything in one place accessible from multiple points including by the patient, doesn’t every modern health service have this facility?
    No. I do a lot of work with diabetes, and because of the GP system, get updates on numbers of people with the diagnosis, including personal demographic data. This is updated daily, so I can track and plan services for the 76 000 with diabetes in Leics and Rutland.

    When I go to conferences, apart from the Scandinavians none of my international peers has anything like the quality of data. Apart from occasional epidemiological surveys they don't generally even know how many they have, nor what their current issues are. It is a different style of practice. While care can be excellent, it can also be very patchy, and diabetes care amongst the poor in America is truly appalling.

    GP registers are a major strength of the UK public health system. Fragmented privatised care has some utility, over centralised systems, but when it comes to systematic planning of a vaccine programme, it is no contest.
    I thought these were in large measure centralised, except for opt-outs. Or perhaps they are 80-90% held by a small number of suppliers and can be relevantly filtered for stats or emergency.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Observer, not necessarily. It could tell us how poor a judge of character Johnson is. Or how he values loyalty to himself above competence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Mr. Observer, not necessarily. It could tell us how poor a judge of character Johnson is. Or how he values loyalty to himself above competence.

    Or all three.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021

    Potentially interesting development:
    https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1345143277541077001

    Unlike his lockdown scepticism, I think Farage is likely onto a winner making opposition to China his next shtick.

    He's taking his cue from Trump. He's just a bit behind time and he'll be talking about Iran in a couple of days.

    Oh, and it's probably not coincidental that the EU are currently doing major deals on trade with China.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    On the previous thread, @YBarddCwsc asked about testing levels. I got the "All pillars" data for each nation from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing and created a 7-day average chart:


    Apart from that Christmas dip at the end, those curves more or less have the same shape as in the cases chart. That's not suprising as people with symptoms and then contacts of people with positive tests get tested.

    However, the test numbers are dominated by a large constant component of 2000..2500 tests/week/100,000. I guess that's a combination of routine testing of hospital and care home staff and patients plus people getting tested for Covid-like symptoms from other ailments. England's base level of tests appears to be about 500 higher than the other nations.

    The reported case chart again for reference:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Mr. Doethur, the media will be confused.

    "If there's a tier 73 lockdown, but really bad weather, is there travel chaos? My god, what headline are we meant to use now?!"

    'Motorway Madness!'

    It's worked for years
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    Gosh. Lots of anecdotal evidence that political correctness has gone mad. Wonders will never cease.

    Not much changes round here, does it?
    It's a welcome change from yesterday's anecdotes about the whole country on a massive bender apart from the millions of lorries queuing up at Dover!
    Do stop telling us about conditions on the ground in the UK.

    Posting here rather than wowing them in your fluent Castilian on Il Juego Politico really is the equivalent of English language quiz night at the Irish Bar, don't you find?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    Gosh. Lots of anecdotal evidence that political correctness has gone mad. Wonders will never cease.

    Not much changes round here, does it?
    It's a welcome change from yesterday's anecdotes about the whole country on a massive bender apart from the millions of lorries queuing up at Dover!
    Do stop telling us about conditions on the ground in the UK.

    Posting here rather than wowing them in your fluent Castilian on Il Juego Politico really is the equivalent of English language quiz night at the Irish Bar, don't you find?

    Lo siento Generalissimo - olvido que esta el jefe aqui.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    Interesting set of predictions, David - thanks.
    Dura_Ace said:



    Or take the Trigger's Broom approach - buy an okish bike, upgrade it piece by piece as you learn. By the time you have replaced the wheels, the bottom bracket, the pedals, the seat, the handlebars, the front gears, the back gears, the frame...

    I had tremendous fun as a kid learning mechanical engineering from slowly turning shop bought bikes into what I wanted. Spent hours carefully adjust bearings to "just so"....

    This isn't really a viable approach for any other than the truly committed these days for a few reasons.

    Bike parts are very expensive at retail now compared to what the OEMs pay. The rear derailleur I replaced following my recent accident was 400 quid!

    Plethora of competing standards and technologies means that you need a critical mass of knowledge and tools. Off the top of my head I can think of the following Bottom Bracket standards: British and Italian threaded,BB90,BB95,PF86,PF92,BB30, OSBB (road and MTB), BB30A, PF30, BBRight, BB386 EVO, SRAM DUB and "Spanish" press fit for BMXs. There's probably more.

    Bike frames are now vertically stratified in a way that they never used to be. A low end frame may not be upgradable to thru-axles from drop outs, hydraulic discs from calipers or electronic shifting from the previously prevalent Edwardian technology of Bowden cables.
    Don't forget your Local Bike Shop, and that most bikes these days in this country come without a lot of the everday kit you will need - lights, saddlebag, pump, puncture kit, mudguards, possibly decent tyres, and so on.

    I bought a decent bike (Boardman Team level) and did various mods over a couple of years.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What do people think of the Ryan air ads ‘jab and go’ ? Strikes me as giving the wrong focus but it might encourage some vaccine waverers. Not sure I want them out here until everything is proven and you can’t slip through the net without one. Spain should wait until it has secured its own population before opening the floodgates.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Alasdair_ said:

    Could the Elections be postponed due to the Covid crisis? A possibility to be considered.

    Oh and first.

    Was discussing that with Labour friends on NYE. I don't see how they could hold open elections in the midst of this, and they need to make the decision in late February or so when we're still likely to be in a mess.

    100% postal...?
    USA managed it with 500M potential voters. Absolutely no reason why they cannot go postal. Though it will suit Tories to try and stop Scotland election and given their mendacity it is highly likely they will try. They make Trump look like an angel.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    IanB2 said:

    R4 meteorologist suggesting another Best from the East might be forming due mid to late Jan

    There's a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in progress.

    All other things being equal you would expect that to make easterly winds a lot more likely.

    One thing to note is that this event is relatively early in the winter, so coincides with the annual minimum in temperature which is normally at the end of January.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    It is this government that made terrorism prevention training compulsory, and instituted the Revalidation and licence to practice requirements. Prior to 2012, retired doctors retained GMC registration and could prescribe, though few did. Nurses have a similar system.

    It is the Tory government that introduced all this bollocks. Nothing to do with hospital HR departments etc, other than they need to follow the law.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
    If you can post the evidence I might be convinced. Who enforces the 3/4 rule outside or is that simply a product of your imagination? In Spain they regularly post information on school amd class closures caused by Covid. The figures have been very low.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    Research suggests that your former isn't the case and your latter may be out of date.

    On the latter, as I posted yesterday, while it is too early to say, the European CDC published a paper headed by the following disclaimer:

    This report does not consider the epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to new variants of concern for SARS-CoV-2, such as one recently observed in the United Kingdom (VOC 202012/01), for which robust evidence on the potential impact in school settings is not yet available.

    • The United Kingdom has released a statement that, on preliminary analysis, this variant appears to be more transmissible. There are media reports that the new variant may be more able to infect children, but this is not yet confirmed, and detailed data are awaited.

    • Should these initial reports about increased transmissibility of VOC 20212/01 in children prove to be accurate, this could have implications for the effectiveness of intervention measures in school settings, and of potential school closures, in countries where there are high rates of circulation of this variant.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    nichomar said:

    What do people think of the Ryan air ads ‘jab and go’ ? Strikes me as giving the wrong focus but it might encourage some vaccine waverers. Not sure I want them out here until everything is proven and you can’t slip through the net without one. Spain should wait until it has secured its own population before opening the floodgates.

    I'm guessing as July nears Spain will open up again regardless.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    edited January 2021
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    Research suggests that your former isn't the case and your latter may be out of date.

    On the latter, as I posted yesterday, while it is too early to say, the European CDC published a paper headed by the following disclaimer:

    This report does not consider the epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to new variants of concern for SARS-CoV-2, such as one recently observed in the United Kingdom (VOC 202012/01), for which robust evidence on the potential impact in school settings is not yet available.

    • The United Kingdom has released a statement that, on preliminary analysis, this variant appears to be more transmissible. There are media reports that the new variant may be more able to infect children, but this is not yet confirmed, and detailed data are awaited.

    • Should these initial reports about increased transmissibility of VOC 20212/01 in children prove to be accurate, this could have implications for the effectiveness of intervention measures in school settings, and of potential school closures, in countries where there are high rates of circulation of this variant.
    Not exactly a ringing endorsement to be fair.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
    If you can post the evidence I might be convinced. Who enforces the 3/4 rule outside or is that simply a product of your imagination? In Spain they regularly post information on school amd class closures caused by Covid. The figures have been very low.
    It’s a product of my knowledge of teenagers. They do not hang out with groups of thirty, particularly not with all inside venues closed. And in any case, outside meeting is much safer than inside.

    The other issue is of course that (1) classrooms are in no way ‘safe’ despite the lies of those drunken crooks at the DfE, and (2) government isolation rules are not generally enforced in schools - only people within 2 metres, not whole classes, are isolated, nor are teachers.

    As for your claim about teachers, the fact that at times we had 10% of staff off with Covid (not just isolating) does not exactly suggest staff are safe from infection.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    Gosh. Lots of anecdotal evidence that political correctness has gone mad. Wonders will never cease.

    Not much changes round here, does it?
    It's a welcome change from yesterday's anecdotes about the whole country on a massive bender apart from the millions of lorries queuing up at Dover!
    Do stop telling us about conditions on the ground in the UK.

    Posting here rather than wowing them in your fluent Castilian on Il Juego Politico really is the equivalent of English language quiz night at the Irish Bar, don't you find?

    Lo siento Generalissimo - olvido que esta el jefe aqui.
    Just my point: where would you be without google translate?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    Good morning everyone. And thanks Mr H for your forecast. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mr Clipp; the Government looks as though it may well be in serious chaos by the end of the year. The question has to arise; who is to replace anyone who leaves the Government. There doesn't seem to be a wealth of talent on the Conservative benches.

    I’m afraid that’s what happens when candidates are selected for ‘outside’ bets to win, you don’t get the cream of aspiring politicians and end up with a lot of dead wood or even worse unpredictable self motivated individuals. When you’ve already sacked the A team and appointed theB team based on loyalty to brexit leaves you little room for maneuver and any quality left will be seen as a threat to the incumbent.
    Indeed; and there's little chance of a by election bringing anyone else in. It has to be said, tough, that Labour doesn't appear to have a group of whizz-kids ready to challenge either.
    Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
    Kate Green - notable fior 'wokeness' I'm afraid and anti-monarchism.
    Thanks; should I try to remember?

    On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
    I thought that’s what computers were for everything in one place accessible from multiple points including by the patient, doesn’t every modern health service have this facility?
    No. I do a lot of work with diabetes, and because of the GP system, get updates on numbers of people with the diagnosis, including personal demographic data. This is updated daily, so I can track and plan services for the 76 000 with diabetes in Leics and Rutland.

    When I go to conferences, apart from the Scandinavians none of my international peers has anything like the quality of data. Apart from occasional epidemiological surveys they don't generally even know how many they have, nor what their current issues are. It is a different style of practice. While care can be excellent, it can also be very patchy, and diabetes care amongst the poor in America is truly appalling.

    GP registers are a major strength of the UK public health system. Fragmented privatised care has some utility, over centralised systems, but when it comes to systematic planning of a vaccine programme, it is no contest.
    I can see almost all of my medical records, as to whether this results in any analysis is a different matter. It does save carrying around large quantities of paper.
    Yes - the Spanish centralised prescription reords are also very handy right now. Simple phonecall and instant 3 months renewal.
    Same here in Scotland, one phone call and it is delivered to my house in 2 working days, superb service.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
    If you can post the evidence I might be convinced. Who enforces the 3/4 rule outside or is that simply a product of your imagination? In Spain they regularly post information on school amd class closures caused by Covid. The figures have been very low.
    It’s a product of my knowledge of teenagers. They do not hang out with groups of thirty, particularly not with all inside venues closed. And in any case, outside meeting is much safer than inside.

    The other issue is of course that (1) classrooms are in no way ‘safe’ despite the lies of those drunken crooks at the DfE, and (2) government isolation schools are not generally enforced in schools - only people within 2 metres, not whole classes, are isolated, nor are teachers.

    As for your claim about teachers, the fact that at times we had 10% of staff off with Covid (not just isolating) does not exactly suggest staff are safe from infection.
    Unless it is always the same 3/4 people your knowledge is unhelpful. The point about staff seems to assume they all caught it in the classroom from students. Again I would like to see the evidence. I'd also love to see your evidence that the DfE has a high proportion of 'drunken crooks' - otherwise it could be you're simply peddling an agenda.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    It is this government that made terrorism prevention training compulsory, and instituted the Revalidation and licence to practice requirements. Prior to 2012, retired doctors retained GMC registration and could prescribe, though few did. Nurses have a similar system.

    It is the Tory government that introduced all this bollocks. Nothing to do with hospital HR departments etc, other than they need to follow the law.
    Is this the usual problem, of a couple of extreme cases leading to bad law and unintended consequences?

    Sounds like, right now, these myriad regulations are causing more harm then good, and should be at least suspended by Parliament if not repealed altogether.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894

    The Johnson Government is the epitome of omnishambles. How BJ can leave someone like Gavin Williamson in office is beyond me. Except of course that he was instrumental in the leadership election and chumocracy trumps competence.

    I have come to the view that Gav remains in post because BoZo believes him to be doing an exceptional job.

    Not at educating, obviously, but at deflecting or absorbing blame.

    https://twitter.com/bobscartoons/status/1306647449075961860

    It's not remotely possible that Gav is stupid enough to believe we would not need to close schools, and still function as an adult in the Real World.

    We are left therefore with the hypothesis that BoZo made the decision and told him to go out and sell it.

    Which he did. And now we blame him. Job done from BoZo's perspective. Give that man a medal...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    I'll make one prediction for 2021. The Bank of England base interest rate will not go above 0.1% irrespective of inflation. I doubt it'll go negative - that idea has been floated, and seems to have died a death - but there is no way interest rates are going up any time soon. It doesn't matter how bad inflation gets, mortgages are king.

    Of course, the rates at which governments borrow may very well go up.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Away, aye. The price of having a cult around a healthcare provider.

    If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.

    There’s lots of anecdotal evidence (social media, letters to newspapers) that applicants are being asked to work through training courses on equality, diversity, discrimination and terrorism before even getting to the medical questions.

    Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.

    50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.

    If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.

    It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
    Gosh. Lots of anecdotal evidence that political correctness has gone mad. Wonders will never cease.

    Not much changes round here, does it?
    It's a welcome change from yesterday's anecdotes about the whole country on a massive bender apart from the millions of lorries queuing up at Dover!
    Do stop telling us about conditions on the ground in the UK.

    Posting here rather than wowing them in your fluent Castilian on Il Juego Politico really is the equivalent of English language quiz night at the Irish Bar, don't you find?

    Lo siento Generalissimo - olvido que esta el jefe aqui.
    Just my point: where would you be without google translate?
    If I'd used google I'd have used 'eres'instead of 'esta'. My mistake.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
    If you can post the evidence I might be convinced. Who enforces the 3/4 rule outside or is that simply a product of your imagination? In Spain they regularly post information on school amd class closures caused by Covid. The figures have been very low.
    It’s a product of my knowledge of teenagers. They do not hang out with groups of thirty, particularly not with all inside venues closed. And in any case, outside meeting is much safer than inside.

    The other issue is of course that (1) classrooms are in no way ‘safe’ despite the lies of those drunken crooks at the DfE, and (2) government isolation schools are not generally enforced in schools - only people within 2 metres, not whole classes, are isolated, nor are teachers.

    As for your claim about teachers, the fact that at times we had 10% of staff off with Covid (not just isolating) does not exactly suggest staff are safe from infection.
    Unless it is always the same 3/4 people your knowledge is unhelpful. The point about staff seems to assume they all caught it in the classroom from students. Again I would like to see the evidence. I'd also love to see your evidence that the DfE has a high proportion of 'drunken crooks' - otherwise it could be you're simply peddling an agenda.
    You have made a series of unsubstantiated assertions that small groups in the open air are just as dangerous in terms of viral transmission as packed classrooms, because mythically they must always be different people all the time.

    And you are accusing me of not providing evidence and pushing an agenda?

    Edit - and I’m assuming the DfE are drunk because the alternative - that they Deliberately sent three sets of contradictory instructions within 24 hours out of malice - is too awful to contemplate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    What do people think of the Ryan air ads ‘jab and go’ ? Strikes me as giving the wrong focus but it might encourage some vaccine waverers. Not sure I want them out here until everything is proven and you can’t slip through the net without one. Spain should wait until it has secured its own population before opening the floodgates.

    I'm guessing as July nears Spain will open up again regardless.
    I think that lots of areas dependent on tourism will do just that - despite the obvious risk of triggering the whole thing off again next autumn. Way better to furlough the tourist industry until there’s a critical mass of vaccinated population.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    I suspect that by the end of January, or certainly February, it will be abundantly clear to even the dimmest person that we are in a race between vaccinating and the spread of the virus. I think we are going to see some horrendous death tolls in a lot of countries quite shortly.

    There was one model I read about last week which suggests that vaccinating 2 million a week in the UK would save something like 100,000 lives by this summer. There really should be absolutely nothing allowed to impeded the vaccination programme. Other countries will need similar proportioned programmes, and God help the people who don't live in countries with vaccine orders and decent public health services.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    edited January 2021
    I see that Shelter have warmed over their "sex for rent" story, framing women as perpetual victims and men as perpetual abusers.

    The last time they did this 2-3 years ago, the actual data showed that more men had been propositioned than women. They only fed the media the half about women.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gz85usf0nn/YG - Archive - 190717 - Shelter.pdf

    They had just recruited the new boss, Polly Neate, from Women's Aid.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
    If you can post the evidence I might be convinced. Who enforces the 3/4 rule outside or is that simply a product of your imagination? In Spain they regularly post information on school amd class closures caused by Covid. The figures have been very low.
    It’s a product of my knowledge of teenagers. They do not hang out with groups of thirty, particularly not with all inside venues closed. And in any case, outside meeting is much safer than inside.

    The other issue is of course that (1) classrooms are in no way ‘safe’ despite the lies of those drunken crooks at the DfE, and (2) government isolation schools are not generally enforced in schools - only people within 2 metres, not whole classes, are isolated, nor are teachers.

    As for your claim about teachers, the fact that at times we had 10% of staff off with Covid (not just isolating) does not exactly suggest staff are safe from infection.
    Unless it is always the same 3/4 people your knowledge is unhelpful. The point about staff seems to assume they all caught it in the classroom from students. Again I would like to see the evidence. I'd also love to see your evidence that the DfE has a high proportion of 'drunken crooks' - otherwise it could be you're simply peddling an agenda.
    You have made a series of unsubstantiated assertions that small groups in the open air are just as dangerous in terms of viral transmission as packed classrooms, because mythically they must always be different people all the time.

    And you are accusing me of not providing evidence and pushing an agenda?

    Edit - and I’m assuming the DfE are drunk because the alternative - that they Deliberately sent three sets of contradictory instructions within 24 hours out of malice - is too awful to contemplate.
    I said I was unconvinced. I am. Your manic comments about DfE officials are ridiculous. However, enjoy your day. We are not going to agree and life is way too short.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    alex_ said:

    Potentially interesting development:
    https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1345143277541077001

    Unlike his lockdown scepticism, I think Farage is likely onto a winner making opposition to China his next shtick.

    He's taking his cue from Trump. He's just a bit behind time and he'll be talking about Iran in a couple of days.

    Oh, and it's probably not coincidental that the EU are currently doing major deals on trade with China.
    Not enough that he's screwed this country he's now trying to screw the EU. Why is anyone interested in anything he has to say. He's a one man wrecking ball.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    gealbhan said:

    felix said:

    I have said several times that I suspect Boris will leave office probably this year and I hope Rishi Sunak will replace him. Probably my only prediction. My current frustration lies mainly with the slow vaccine rollout in the EU combined with surprise at the high levels of scepticism I hear about having the jab here in Spain. We continue to be badly hit but one of the wealthiest blocs in the world seems to be dithering. I don't get it.

    This is where EU red tape irritates me. They also delayed too long after the MHRA approved Pfizer's vaccine in the UK.

    The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
    Some people on this site ask how many people have the EU killed by taking too long behind us to start jabbing.

    We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.

    Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
    The delay is due to the vaccine manufacturers not delivering in the quantities promised.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/france-to-step-up-covid-jabs-after-claims-of-bowing-to-anti-vaxxers

    Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).

    One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
    Lets be honest, if the vaccines were being manufactured here and exported elsewhere there would be plenty on here suggesting or even demanding commandeering them.
    I don't think any usual Govt here would do it; UK Govts are usually properly bound by law.

    That's why we have so many activist lawyers :smile: - because it works. If it did not, Jolyon Maugham wouldn't be doing so much pratting around in between auditioning for the Hollywood Blockbuster "Suburban Samurai".

    Whereas Mr Macron already has when he ordered PPE confiscated which was due by contract to a whole series of countries. UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland to name just seven.
    Surely it would be breaking the law only in a limited and specific way? What is the case such a breach would be universal and general?
    Nice rhetorical reply :smile: . My point stands.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
    If you can post the evidence I might be convinced. Who enforces the 3/4 rule outside or is that simply a product of your imagination? In Spain they regularly post information on school amd class closures caused by Covid. The figures have been very low.
    It’s a product of my knowledge of teenagers. They do not hang out with groups of thirty, particularly not with all inside venues closed. And in any case, outside meeting is much safer than inside.

    The other issue is of course that (1) classrooms are in no way ‘safe’ despite the lies of those drunken crooks at the DfE, and (2) government isolation schools are not generally enforced in schools - only people within 2 metres, not whole classes, are isolated, nor are teachers.

    As for your claim about teachers, the fact that at times we had 10% of staff off with Covid (not just isolating) does not exactly suggest staff are safe from infection.
    Unless it is always the same 3/4 people your knowledge is unhelpful. The point about staff seems to assume they all caught it in the classroom from students. Again I would like to see the evidence. I'd also love to see your evidence that the DfE has a high proportion of 'drunken crooks' - otherwise it could be you're simply peddling an agenda.
    You have made a series of unsubstantiated assertions that small groups in the open air are just as dangerous in terms of viral transmission as packed classrooms, because mythically they must always be different people all the time.

    And you are accusing me of not providing evidence and pushing an agenda?

    Edit - and I’m assuming the DfE are drunk because the alternative - that they Deliberately sent three sets of contradictory instructions within 24 hours out of malice - is too awful to contemplate.
    I said I was unconvinced. I am. Your manic comments about DfE officials are ridiculous. However, enjoy your day. We are not going to agree and life is way too short.
    We’re not going to agree because you are clearly wrong. Every time this is pointed out to you you try to shift position based on sweeping statements. That is your privilege, but does mean your views on policy are not relevant.

    As for the DfE. They have behaved throughout this crisis with criminal irresponsibility. They have blood on their hands. They will be held to account.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    What do people think of the Ryan air ads ‘jab and go’ ? Strikes me as giving the wrong focus but it might encourage some vaccine waverers. Not sure I want them out here until everything is proven and you can’t slip through the net without one. Spain should wait until it has secured its own population before opening the floodgates.

    I'm guessing as July nears Spain will open up again regardless.
    I think that lots of areas dependent on tourism will do just that - despite the obvious risk of triggering the whole thing off again next autumn. Way better to furlough the tourist industry until there’s a critical mass of vaccinated population.
    I hope to God that we are going to have a critical mass of vaccinations by July. Otherwise this year is a write off.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    MattW said:

    Don't forget your Local Bike Shop, and that most bikes these days in this country come without a lot of the everday kit you will need - lights, saddlebag, pump, puncture kit, mudguards, possibly decent tyres, and so on.

    I bought a decent bike (Boardman Team level) and did various mods over a couple of years.

    https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1345149939064713217
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited January 2021
    Roger said:

    alex_ said:

    Potentially interesting development:
    https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1345143277541077001

    Unlike his lockdown scepticism, I think Farage is likely onto a winner making opposition to China his next shtick.

    He's taking his cue from Trump. He's just a bit behind time and he'll be talking about Iran in a couple of days.

    Oh, and it's probably not coincidental that the EU are currently doing major deals on trade with China.
    Not enough that he's screwed this country he's now trying to screw the EU. Why is anyone interested in anything he has to say. He's a one man wrecking ball.
    There's something malcontented and internally unhappy about Farage. He should be revelling in his achievement of helping to get Britain out of the EU - he's now, for better or worse, one of the most influential Britons of the last 60 years. instead, he looks unhappy and worried that he might be less relevant.
  • I hope that wazzock Williamson has been locked in the DfE stationery cupboard whilst officials try and work out what the plan is for schools on Monday. That the pox is on a post-Christmas national rampage isn't unexpected, so they must have plans and alternative plans and alternative contingency plans to pull out and implement.

    But its ok. People will put up with - and defend - any deadly shambles because Brexit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1345077579162804226
    Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.

    It's quite an achievement to be the most incompetent minister in this government - by a mile.

    Putting Gavin Williamson in charge of education tells you all you need to know about how important Johnson believes it is.
    I agree - however, I'm unconvinced that closing schools across the board will act to suppress Covid - especially from the secondary sector - unless they and their families are to be confined to their homes. That is unlikely to be enforced so they will simply be congregating with friends inside and out in a much less controlled way and without being educated. I understand that there was little evidence of students passing the virus onto teachers when the schools were open.
    But they would be congregating outside with their friends - groups of three or four outside, not thirty in unventilated rooms.

    Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
    If you can post the evidence I might be convinced. Who enforces the 3/4 rule outside or is that simply a product of your imagination? In Spain they regularly post information on school amd class closures caused by Covid. The figures have been very low.
    It’s a product of my knowledge of teenagers. They do not hang out with groups of thirty, particularly not with all inside venues closed. And in any case, outside meeting is much safer than inside.

    The other issue is of course that (1) classrooms are in no way ‘safe’ despite the lies of those drunken crooks at the DfE, and (2) government isolation schools are not generally enforced in schools - only people within 2 metres, not whole classes, are isolated, nor are teachers.

    As for your claim about teachers, the fact that at times we had 10% of staff off with Covid (not just isolating) does not exactly suggest staff are safe from infection.
    Unless it is always the same 3/4 people your knowledge is unhelpful. The point about staff seems to assume they all caught it in the classroom from students. Again I would like to see the evidence. I'd also love to see your evidence that the DfE has a high proportion of 'drunken crooks' - otherwise it could be you're simply peddling an agenda.
    You have made a series of unsubstantiated assertions that small groups in the open air are just as dangerous in terms of viral transmission as packed classrooms, because mythically they must always be different people all the time.

    And you are accusing me of not providing evidence and pushing an agenda?

    Edit - and I’m assuming the DfE are drunk because the alternative - that they Deliberately sent three sets of contradictory instructions within 24 hours out of malice - is too awful to contemplate.
    I said I was unconvinced. I am. Your manic comments about DfE officials are ridiculous. However, enjoy your day. We are not going to agree and life is way too short.
    We’re not going to agree because you are clearly wrong. Every time this is pointed out to you you try to shift position based on sweeping statements. That is your privilege, but does mean your views on policy are not relevant.

    As for the DfE. They have behaved throughout this crisis with criminal irresponsibility. They have blood on their hands. They will be held to account.
    Rofl. Keep taking the tablets.
This discussion has been closed.