Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Should you have food delivered, rather than shopping, if you are not vulnerable yourself, but have some unavoidable contact with vulnerable people? On the one hand, it makes sense to minimise one's exposure as much as possible; on the other hand, friends of mine have had stick for taking valuable delivery slots away from people who have more need of them. What do people reckon?
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
Close to my very bearish expectation. I don't think it's generally dawned how bad the next few weeks in particular will be. One thing will feel better than last year though. We are on our way out. Barring something shocking we are not hoping for an end to the pandemic this year we are awaiting it. And there is an element of pro-action and control with the vaccination rollout. That will make a huge mental difference to a lot of people, I think.
So my central estimate is 3m vaccinations per week rising to 5m from April to cover the final 25 million young people who aren't in the first 30m in weeks 1-12, I'm working on a delta of 12 weeks from jab 1 to jab 2. Overall we're looking at 36 weeks before everyone is vaccinated and around 15 weeks until enough people are vaccinated so we're out of the toughest restrictions. It will take 25-27 weeks on this timetable to get to where we were in the summer having Rishi's dishes and that's at a rate faster than what the government currently have publicised.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
Close to my very bearish expectation. I don't think it's generally dawned how bad the next few weeks in particular will be. One thing will feel better than last year though. We are on our way out. Barring something shocking we are not hoping for an end to the pandemic this year we are awaiting it. And there is an element of pro-action and control with the vaccination rollout. That will make a huge mental difference to a lot of people, I think.
A lot of people don't understand how bad the current numbers and maths are, but I think restrictions will drop quite quickly from end of March. The summer will be fine.
I think so too. Tunnel of shit but then fairly quickly into the shower. And one with American plumbing and a jet nozzle too.
Normal by August was I think my prediction in the list you marked as "50% could do better".
Oh god. That one looks real too. I do hope all this has peaked with Him.
I've been wondering recently whether Trump is going to carry on calling these demonstations after Biden is inaugurated, and whether his appeal with persist strongly enough to carry on drawing similar crowds for his campaign "against fraud" ; if so, Biden and the Democrats will have an ongoing nuisance.
It depends a lot on whether the media keep covering him, or choose to ignore him.
The problem is that, no matter what he does, he’s box office gold for the rolling news networks.
Key point. He's a creature of the lamestream media. They made him and they can unmake him. Twitter only goes so far.
Which is why the political media being utterly obsessed by Twitter is such a massive problem.
Who cares about a massively polarised society, so long as it generates clicks and likes.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
Close to my very bearish expectation. I don't think it's generally dawned how bad the next few weeks in particular will be. One thing will feel better than last year though. We are on our way out. Barring something shocking we are not hoping for an end to the pandemic this year we are awaiting it. And there is an element of pro-action and control with the vaccination rollout. That will make a huge mental difference to a lot of people, I think.
A lot of people don't understand how bad the current numbers and maths are, but I think restrictions will drop quite quickly from end of March. The summer will be fine.
I think so too. Tunnel of shit but then fairly quickly into the shower. And one with American plumbing and a jet nozzle too.
Normal by August was I think my prediction in the list you marked as "50% could do better".
Yes that was in the correct pile, it was the US predictions that let you down, too much optimism and wishful thinking there.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Good job the NHS aren't asking volunteers who want to help to fill in 6 million pages of forms and produce 500 different forms of ID....
I mentioned something about that last night, I expect at the start of next week the NHS will announce something along the lines if you were registered as a doctor in the last few years and can/have passed a DBS then that's all you'll need to be part of the vaccine rollout plan.
I suppose better late than never...what idiot devised the current scheme where even highly qualified individuals are finding nearly impossible to meet all the tick box criteria without spending days of their lives doing extra courses and tracking down obscure forms of ID.
Its one bloody injection, dentists, vets, army medics can all do that in their sleep.
There were allegations that these volunteers even needed to show they had passed 'equality and gender' training.
Well I for one don't want some gammon brutalizing my upper arm.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
Let’s try and keep away from Scottish referendum debate it’s been pleasant not having it so far today. Police turning back day trippers to Snowdonia from all over the country, what is wrong with people do they not take in any news? The UK is on the verge of a health crisis which could hit anyone and still they ignore it. The bottom line I suppose is that there just aren’t enough police to do the job properly and the need to ‘police by consent’.
You running the blog now, we will debate independence if we like. We all know from the numbers that down south are nutters, boring hearing yet again about them polluting the country and increasing virus numbers.
@malcolmg for avoidance of doubt can you confirm if you support a country leaving a larger group of countries to repatriate full governmental and fiscal policy to a national parliament. Yes or no will do
As someone who has wondered on here about 'death with covid' vs 'death of covid' figures this made for sobering reading:
"It is perhaps worth exploring a few more of these Covid myths, so that we can enjoy catharsis, if not put the issue to bed.
“Patients are dying ‘with’ Covid, not ‘of’ it.” The death certificate data from the Office for National Statistics, which provides us with the most reliable figures on Covid deaths, records causation. But even more obvious is what a patient with Covid pneumonia looks like clinically. They have very low oxygen levels, a dense white shadow in both lungs on their X-rays, a particular pattern of low platelets and specific white blood cells, and very high marker of clotting called D-Dimer. This is a clinical pattern doctors all over the world have seen time and time again. Trust us, they are dying of this disease."
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Why wouldnt you assume significantly improved treatment with so much more experience and research available?
You would, but I've not heard much of that in the press ; just of baby steps and piecemeal improvement.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Why wouldnt you assume significantly improved treatment with so much more experience and research available?
You would, but I've not heard much of that in the press ; just of baby steps and piecemeal improvement.
I think the doctors play it down a bit, wanting to avoid complacency amongst the public (and politicians!).
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Why wouldnt you assume significantly improved treatment with so much more experience and research available?
You would, but I've not heard much of that in the press ; just of baby steps and piecemeal improvement.
I think the doctors play it down a bit, wanting to avoid complacency amongst the public (and politicians!).
Yes, you may well be right, and that's probably a good point about what's going on there.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
It is a few factors, the plague has already killed plenty of vulnerable people, I do fear deaths to go up a lot in the next month as hospitals exceed capacity, and people who would have survived with the appropriate treatment, die because there's no space/doctors for them.
Indeed - looking at the explosion in case numbers - more than 50,000 again today - it is hard not to see our death toll rising significantly in coming weeks. We have already risen higher than Spain and the US is no longer catching us up.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Wut? So lie like shit to EU nationals in SindyRef1 to get them to vote No then excluded them from the franchise to stop them voting Yes?
Nice democracy you've got there.
The only people who lied in 2014 were the SNP spokesmen who claimed that an independent Scotland would have an automatic right to be a part of the EU. No one else.
Mother fucker, one of my work colleagues voted No because she had been told she would be deported if Scotland gained independence.
The No campaign sent people round the Polish clubs and the like to spread that lie.
Fuck you, you sanctimonious fucker. Fuck right off.
The legal position was that if Yes had succeeded, Scotland would be outside of the EU and would have to apply to get back in. Saying that EU exit and reapplication following Scexit was a certainty is one thing, and perfectly acceptable. Guaranteeing UK membership of the EU in perpetuity is something quite different, would have been wrong, and to my knowledge, didn't happen. If you can find any prominent instance of that type of statement being made, I'd be interested to see it. Other than that, you're more than intelligent enough to distinguish between the two positions, so perhaps save the confected rage for people who are more likely to be impressed.
Comments
NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/thelonevirologi/status/1345386225356697602
*Given the recorded behaviour of this government, they appear rarely to be truly disinterested...
Normal by August was I think my prediction in the list you marked as "50% could do better".
Who cares about a massively polarised society, so long as it generates clicks and likes.
@Nemtynakht
"It is perhaps worth exploring a few more of these Covid myths, so that we can enjoy catharsis, if not put the issue to bed.
“Patients are dying ‘with’ Covid, not ‘of’ it.” The death certificate data from the Office for National Statistics, which provides us with the most reliable figures on Covid deaths, records causation. But even more obvious is what a patient with Covid pneumonia looks like clinically. They have very low oxygen levels, a dense white shadow in both lungs on their X-rays, a particular pattern of low platelets and specific white blood cells, and very high marker of clotting called D-Dimer. This is a clinical pattern doctors all over the world have seen time and time again. Trust us, they are dying of this disease."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/01/healthcare-workers-covid-conspiracies-coronavirus-deniers
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/