Mindy seems to be quite funny and have a way with a sharp quip, but completely deranged, somewhat like her hero, Trump. She seems to be waving a semi-automatic weapon in a bikini in her "Red, White and F You" picture.
Next stop congress - I see she's already stood for the Republicans.
Most of the prominent Trumpy alt right women seem to share a certain look & feel. Kind of Stepford with malice and decibels. Ghastly. Only thing more ghastly than a Trumpy alt right woman is a Trumpy alt right man.
Yes, there's a certain bleached-blonde, steely-eyed look of ideological lunacy, but also all with a very modern American, bikini-clad brassiness. Baywatch meets Christian stormtroopers, with some helpings of humour.
Mindy Robinson was third of five (very Borg I know) in the Republican Primary to choose the candidate to fight the NV-03 seat.
She got 14% of the vote behind the eventual winner Daniel Rodimer. NV-03 went Democrat in 2016 and in 2018 the current incumbent won by 9 points. This time Rodimer cut the advantage to 3 points - the district voted for Biden over Trump by just 0.2%.
I wonder how many of these primary also-rans will take Ms Robinson's line and leave the GOP for the Patriot Party. It seems Trump and his supporters will hold a valedictory rally on Wednesday next week and perhaps Trump will put down a marker for a 2024 run then and there and it'll be interesting to see if he wants to be a GOP candidate or whether he'll run as a third party candidate.
Interesting ; what state of development is the Patriot Party in ?
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
So that would rule out Irish , English , Commonwealth etc and all we would hear is that SNP are Nazi's and want to have pure blood referendum. That is an extremely poor choice David. You were happy that they got the vote the last time knowing they would vote NO to stay in EU, now as usual for Tories you want to switch rules to rig vote.
To be honest I don't think that it really impinged on my consciousness in 2014. The change in the voting age did (not least because my 16 year old daughter got her first vote) and it got lots of publicity but I don't remember the question of EU citizens voting coming up at all. If it had I would have been opposed to it for the same reasons.
I worked with a Canadian girl in the office at the time of the 2014 Indyref. I remember her saying 'I was against independence for Québec, but I don't know, I think I'm gonna vote Yes!'. Didn't ask the silly cow how she'd have felt if someone essentially on holiday decided it would be a laugh to break up her country.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
So that would rule out Irish , English , Commonwealth etc and all we would hear is that SNP are Nazi's and want to have pure blood referendum. That is an extremely poor choice David. You were happy that they got the vote the last time knowing they would vote NO to stay in EU, now as usual for Tories you want to switch rules to rig vote.
To be honest I don't think that it really impinged on my consciousness in 2014. The change in the voting age did (not least because my 16 year old daughter got her first vote) and it got lots of publicity but I don't remember the question of EU citizens voting coming up at all. If it had I would have been opposed to it for the same reasons.
I worked with a Canadian girl in the office at the time of the 2014 Indyref. I remember her saying 'I was against independence for Québec, but I don't know, I think I'm gonna vote Yes!'. Didn't ask the silly cow how she'd have felt if someone essentially on holiday decided it would be a laugh to break up her country.
Did she get to vote as she was a Commonwealth citizen?
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Unionists don't seem to mind their 2014 victory being tainted by promising a No vote meant staying in the EU, and then dragging Scotland out of the EU against its will.
There's no better way to erase all memory of your existence than be a 2016 Scottish Leave voter is there? The Bermuda triangle like disappearance, never to be spoken of again, of 38% of the voting population is remarkable.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Wut? So lie like shit to EU nationals in SindyRef1 to get them to vote No then excluded them from the franchise to stop them voting Yes?
Nice democracy you've got there.
The only people who lied in 2014 were the SNP spokesmen who claimed that an independent Scotland would have an automatic right to be a part of the EU. No one else.
Yes it is. She was correctly stating the correct legal position at the time. Of course the UK subsequently decided to withdraw from the EU but that did not make what was said on the remain side in 2014, when no referendum was promised, let alone determined, untrue.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
Afaik EU citizens will be voting in the May election.
Edit: I hope we can all agree that it's ok for 18 year olds to vote!
They are not voting as EU citizens however, they are voting under the Sctottish Electoral \System as residents of Scotland meeting the criteria to have the franchise.
Surely it is for the Scottish Government to decide what the franchise is and take whatever political fallout that might come from it. Personally - to take the only example I have concerns about - I think giving 16 year olds the vote is a bloody stupid idea but if that is what the Scots decide is their legal position then it is for them to decide that for elections that they call not Westminster.
I also think that in England for local elections we should modify the franchise so it is based on legal residency not on nationality. If you are a Dutchman (like the godfather of my kids) and have lived here for 30 years then you have a right to take part in deciding who runs the local services. Same if you are an American, Japanese or Nigerian.
General Elections and referendums I would prefer to see kept for UK nationals only. If you want to take part in deciding the future of the country then become a citizen.
But as I say I don't think Westminster have the right to impose that view on Scotland when dealing with purely Scottish matters.
A decision to leave the UK is not a purely Scottish matter. It is a decision that the Scots are entitled to take but the rest of the UK have a very distinct interest in ensuring that will is properly reflected in any vote.
I disagree completely. That is like saying that the EU - who surely had a very distinct interest in the 2016 referendum - should have been able to dictate how it was carried out and what the franchise was. They did not and should not.
Perhaps the franchise default for all our elections should be people of voting age who live in the place having the election. Only depart from this with very good reason.
Piers Corbyn has been arrested yet again....2 days in 2021 and he has already been arrested twice.
At a certain point such behaviour is clearly more about attention seeking than whatever cause is being protested about, if it were not already obvious.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
So that would rule out Irish , English , Commonwealth etc and all we would hear is that SNP are Nazi's and want to have pure blood referendum. That is an extremely poor choice David. You were happy that they got the vote the last time knowing they would vote NO to stay in EU, now as usual for Tories you want to switch rules to rig vote.
To be honest I don't think that it really impinged on my consciousness in 2014. The change in the voting age did (not least because my 16 year old daughter got her first vote) and it got lots of publicity but I don't remember the question of EU citizens voting coming up at all. If it had I would have been opposed to it for the same reasons.
I worked with a Canadian girl in the office at the time of the 2014 Indyref. I remember her saying 'I was against independence for Québec, but I don't know, I think I'm gonna vote Yes!'. Didn't ask the silly cow how she'd have felt if someone essentially on holiday decided it would be a laugh to break up her country.
Did she get to vote as she was a Commonwealth citizen?
Piers Corbyn has been arrested yet again....2 days in 2021 and he has already been arrested twice.
At a certain point such behaviour is clearly more about attention seeking than whatever cause is being protested about, if it were not already obvious.
The fines really should rachet up...forget £10k, he should be getting whacked for £100k by now.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Unionists don't seem to mind their 2014 victory being tainted by promising a No vote meant staying in the EU, and then dragging Scotland out of the EU against its will.
There's no better way to erase all memory of your existence than be a 2016 Scottish Leave voter is there? The Bermuda triangle like disappearance, never to be spoken of again, of 38% of the voting population is remarkable.
Mindy seems to be quite funny and have a way with a sharp quip, but completely deranged, somewhat like her hero, Trump. She seems to be waving a semi-automatic weapon in a bikini in her "Red, White and F You" picture.
Next stop congress - I see she's already stood for the Republicans.
Most of the prominent Trumpy alt right women seem to share a certain look & feel. Kind of Stepford with malice and decibels. Ghastly. Only thing more ghastly than a Trumpy alt right woman is a Trumpy alt right man.
Yes, there's a certain bleached-blonde, steely-eyed look of ideological lunacy, but also all with a very modern American, bikini-clad brassiness. Baywatch meets Christian stormtroopers, with some helpings of humour.
Mindy seems to be quite funny and have a way with a sharp quip, but completely deranged, somewhat like her hero, Trump. She seems to be waving a semi-automatic weapon in a bikini in her "Red, White and F You" picture.
Next stop congress - I see she's already stood for the Republicans.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
Funny that, Spain has kept voting rights for locals for Brits as long as it stays reciprocal.
I can see the argument for local elections when you are a resident and paying towards them. I can't for referendums. Am I right in understanding that in Spain foreigners cannot vote in the national elections?
At the risk of whataboutery, what's the rationale for Irish citizens having a vote in UK elections? Or indeed Commonwealth citizens? I know the UK is a member of the Commonwealth, but it seems irrelevant to who gets the vote. Commonwealth citizenship doesn't give the right to visit the UK even. The Scottish franchise, which is offered to anyone who is permanently resident and is a stakeholder in the democratic process, seems non-discriminatory and has a solid rationale.
I agree about Irish citizens. I think that they retained the right to vote when Eire went independent but there is no one alive now who had the vote in 1919 and its long past time this anachronism was brought to an end. I wouldn't give the Commonwealth citizens a vote either. None of them, I think, have an automatic right to live here now and they will be on restricted visas of one type or another.
Hang on: wasn't this reaffirmed as part of the Good Friday Agreement? I'm quite sure now is not the right time to be reopening that!
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Unionists don't seem to mind their 2014 victory being tainted by promising a No vote meant staying in the EU, and then dragging Scotland out of the EU against its will.
There's no better way to erase all memory of your existence than be a 2016 Scottish Leave voter is there? The Bermuda triangle like disappearance, never to be spoken of again, of 38% of the voting population is remarkable.
Shocking the way that the wish of the Scottish Leave voters to (checks ballot paper) Leave the European Union have been completely ignored.
Piers Corbyn has been arrested yet again....2 days in 2021 and he has already been arrested twice.
At a certain point such behaviour is clearly more about attention seeking than whatever cause is being protested about, if it were not already obvious.
The fines really should rachet up...forget £10k, he should be getting whacked for £100k by now.
Fully charged for police time would be fairer. Corbyn's are idiots (apologies to innocent bearers of that unhappy surname). Freedom of speech entails having the daft brothers too.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
Funny that, Spain has kept voting rights for locals for Brits as long as it stays reciprocal.
I can see the argument for local elections when you are a resident and paying towards them. I can't for referendums. Am I right in understanding that in Spain foreigners cannot vote in the national elections?
At the risk of whataboutery, what's the rationale for Irish citizens having a vote in UK elections? Or indeed Commonwealth citizens? I know the UK is a member of the Commonwealth, but it seems irrelevant to who gets the vote. Commonwealth citizenship doesn't give the right to visit the UK even. The Scottish franchise, which is offered to anyone who is permanently resident and is a stakeholder in the democratic process, seems non-discriminatory and has a solid rationale.
I agree about Irish citizens. I think that they retained the right to vote when Eire went independent but there is no one alive now who had the vote in 1919 and its long past time this anachronism was brought to an end. I wouldn't give the Commonwealth citizens a vote either. None of them, I think, have an automatic right to live here now and they will be on restricted visas of one type or another.
Hang on: wasn't this reaffirmed as part of the Good Friday Agreement? I'm quite sure now is not the right time to be reopening that!
Piers Corbyn has been arrested yet again....2 days in 2021 and he has already been arrested twice.
At a certain point such behaviour is clearly more about attention seeking than whatever cause is being protested about, if it were not already obvious.
There are four Corbyn brothers. I believe Piers and Jeremy are the youngest two.
There is little information in the public domain on the two elder brothers. For some reason.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Wut? So lie like shit to EU nationals in SindyRef1 to get them to vote No then excluded them from the franchise to stop them voting Yes?
Nice democracy you've got there.
The only people who lied in 2014 were the SNP spokesmen who claimed that an independent Scotland would have an automatic right to be a part of the EU. No one else.
Yes it is. She was correctly stating the correct legal position at the time. Of course the UK subsequently decided to withdraw from the EU but that did not make what was said on the remain side in 2014, when no referendum was promised, let alone determined, untrue.
You don't think those who voted 'in' might not feel a little cheated?
Piers Corbyn has been arrested yet again....2 days in 2021 and he has already been arrested twice.
At a certain point such behaviour is clearly more about attention seeking than whatever cause is being protested about, if it were not already obvious.
There are four Corbyn brothers. I believe Piers and Jeremy are the youngest two.
There is little information in the public domain on the two elder brothers. For some reason.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Unionists don't seem to mind their 2014 victory being tainted by promising a No vote meant staying in the EU, and then dragging Scotland out of the EU against its will.
There's no better way to erase all memory of your existence than be a 2016 Scottish Leave voter is there? The Bermuda triangle like disappearance, never to be spoken of again, of 38% of the voting population is remarkable.
Shocking the way that the wish of the Scottish Leave voters to (checks ballot paper) Leave the European Union have been completely ignored.
That's not the worst point you've ever made, one has to say.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Wut? So lie like shit to EU nationals in SindyRef1 to get them to vote No then excluded them from the franchise to stop them voting Yes?
Nice democracy you've got there.
The only people who lied in 2014 were the SNP spokesmen who claimed that an independent Scotland would have an automatic right to be a part of the EU. No one else.
Mother fucker, one of my work colleagues voted No because she had been told she would be deported if Scotland gained independence.
The No campaign sent people round the Polish clubs and the like to spread that lie.
Fuck you, you sanctimonious fucker. Fuck right off.
Don't feel the need to respond to one of my comments again. I will certainly be doing likewise.
Glad to see you sticking by the deportation claims.
At least I know what kind of person you are now and suffer no illusions.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse once the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
My guesstimate is that the 29th is a giant version of the Monday Effect - first working day since the 24th...
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yep - with a weeks lag so the really bad figures will be from today onwards.
You can (almost) see why they wanted schools back on Monday as it's harder to close them again then insist they open.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yep - with a weeks lag so the really bad figures will be from today onwards.
You can (almost) see why they wanted schools back on Monday as it's harder to close them again then insist they open.
Yeah, I'm not leaving the house until I get the vaccine.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
My guesstimate is that the 29th is a giant version of the Monday Effect - first working day since the 24th...
On the positivity chart, for example -
To some degree yes, but at the same time the post weekend figure also tends to set the benchmark for the following week and we know that Christmas gatherings are only going to show up on the figures from this week, this is going to get very messy.
(who was it that used to capitilise their posts as such, I rather like it)
Corbyn the dafter won't be able to back out now. He's in the race. It'll be very hard for the left of the left to not get behind him.
Khan doesn't really have a base. He's just Labour and not truly unpopular anywhere. He's actually done the London Mayor thing and worked a bit (Ken and Boris did the same).
There's the loose cannon of Brian Rose in the race too. I doubt he'll get more than a handful of votes, but who knows.
All of this makes the race interesting.
So my recommendations for modest bets are;
Lay Brian Rose (current bf price 9ish) Back Bailey (current bf price 22ish) Back Porritt is you can get anything like 1000s (820 was me)
I have a reasonable position here and I'm certainly talking my book. I think though that these are quite nice bets in small stakes anyway though.
It'll be very interesting to see where Piers Corbyn's price is when BF list him. His supporters can't fail to try to help him in much the way Rose has. My guess is that they'll only risk 20s or so.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Good job the NHS aren't asking volunteers who want to help to fill in 6 million pages of forms and produce 500 different forms of ID....
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
I assume that doesn't count the 3.5 million left from the first batch? So starting out at a million/week going up to 2 on the 18th.
Piers Corbyn has been arrested yet again....2 days in 2021 and he has already been arrested twice.
At a certain point such behaviour is clearly more about attention seeking than whatever cause is being protested about, if it were not already obvious.
There are four Corbyn brothers. I believe Piers and Jeremy are the youngest two.
There is little information in the public domain on the two elder brothers. For some reason.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
My guesstimate is that the 29th is a giant version of the Monday Effect - first working day since the 24th...
On the positivity chart, for example -
To some degree yes, but at the same time the post weekend figure also tends to set the benchmark for the following week and we know that Christmas gatherings are only going to show up on the figures from this week, this is going to get very messy.
Yes - it is getting worse. Just not sure what the 29th data means at the moment.
My guesstimate is that next week will be worse on average, but below the 29th data, following the pattern of previous Monday Effects.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Good job the NHS aren't asking volunteers who want to help to fill in 6 million pages of forms and produce 500 different forms of ID....
I mentioned something about that last night, I expect at the start of next week the NHS will announce something along the lines if you were registered as a doctor in the last few years and can/have passed a DBS then that's all you'll need to be part of the vaccine rollout plan.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Wut? So lie like shit to EU nationals in SindyRef1 to get them to vote No then excluded them from the franchise to stop them voting Yes?
Nice democracy you've got there.
The only people who lied in 2014 were the SNP spokesmen who claimed that an independent Scotland would have an automatic right to be a part of the EU. No one else.
Yes it is. She was correctly stating the correct legal position at the time. Of course the UK subsequently decided to withdraw from the EU but that did not make what was said on the remain side in 2014, when no referendum was promised, let alone determined, untrue.
You don't think those who voted 'in' might not feel a little cheated?
I think "cheated" is a little strong. If they hadn't picked up that there was a significant number of politicians who were unhappy with our EU membership and trying to do something about it they really weren't paying attention. They should have appreciated that there was a non zero risk that that movement might succeed, however unlikely that looked in 2014.
They may well feel that they will vote differently this time and no doubt some of them will. Others will move in the other direction for different reasons. One of the more obvious is the Brexit process itself. Who in their right mind would think that something similar but even more complicated and fractious was a good way to spend the next 5 years?
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Can I also point out - for those who think it is impossible to manage a mass vaccination scheme - that in the last 12 days, Israel has managed to get first shots into more than 10% of their population.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Good job the NHS aren't asking volunteers who want to help to fill in 6 million pages of forms and produce 500 different forms of ID....
I mentioned something about that last night, I expect at the start of next week the NHS will announce something along the lines if you were registered as a doctor in the last few years and can/have passed a DBS then that's all you'll need to be part of the vaccine rollout plan.
I suppose better late than never...what idiot devised the current scheme where even highly qualified individuals are finding nearly impossible to meet all the tick box criteria without spending days of their lives doing extra courses and tracking down obscure forms of ID.
Its one bloody injection, dentists, vets, army medics can all do that in their sleep.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
I assume that doesn't count the 3.5 million left from the first batch? So starting out at a million/week going up to 2 on the 18th.
Yes, that's what it implied. They also said that the NHS is confident it can use all of the 1m supply from AZ expected this week and all of the Pfizer supply as well so we could see well over 1m people jabbed from Monday to Sunday.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Can I also point out - for those who think it is impossible to manage a mass vaccination scheme - that in the last 12 days, Israel has managed to get first shots into more than 10% of their population.
That's close to 1% of the population every day.
In a normal year we do over 15 million flu jabs, presumably the vast majority from Sept-Dec. This year we were planning to do 30 million, not sure how many we have got to.
It really isnt that difficult. (The Pfizer one obviously harder than flu jabs but aiui process essentially the same for AZ one).
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Can I also point out - for those who think it is impossible to manage a mass vaccination scheme - that in the last 12 days, Israel has managed to get first shots into more than 10% of their population.
That's close to 1% of the population every day.
Yes, that's a good rate but don't forget that to keep it going they effectively need to double it from day 22 onwards or the rate of bringing people into the vaccine funnel drops to a trickle. Either that or work in batches which seems inefficient.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Better treatment. Didn't that one cheap steroid on its own reduce mortality significantly?
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
There does seem to have been a real improvement in the efficacy of treatment since the Spring.
(who was it that used to capitilise their posts as such, I rather like it)
Corbyn the dafter won't be able to back out now. He's in the race. It'll be very hard for the left of the left to not get behind him.
Khan doesn't really have a base. He's just Labour and not truly unpopular anywhere. He's actually done the London Mayor thing and worked a bit (Ken and Boris did the same).
There's the loose cannon of Brian Rose in the race too. I doubt he'll get more than a handful of votes, but who knows.
All of this makes the race interesting.
So my recommendations for modest bets are;
Lay Brian Rose (current bf price 9ish) Back Bailey (current bf price 22ish) Back Porritt is you can get anything like 1000s (820 was me)
I have a reasonable position here and I'm certainly talking my book. I think though that these are quite nice bets in small stakes anyway though.
It'll be very interesting to see where Piers Corbyn's price is when BF list him. His supporters can't fail to try to help him in much the way Rose has. My guess is that they'll only risk 20s or so.
Don’t forget the voting system. Corbyn votes will mostly transfer to Khan.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Why wouldnt you assume significantly improved treatment with so much more experience and research available?
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
It is a few factors, the plague has already killed plenty of vulnerable people, I do fear deaths to go up a lot in the next month as hospitals exceed capacity, and people who would have survived with the appropriate treatment, die because there's no space/doctors for them.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Wait until schools get back, if they do...
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf ... Available SGTF data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Fourth, we assess the association of VOC frequency with independent estimates of the overall SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number through time. Finally, we fit a semi-mechanistic model directly to local VOC and non-VOC case incidence to estimate the reproduction numbers over time for each. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage, with the estimated difference in reproduction numbers between VOC and non-VOC ranging between 0.4 and 0.7, and the ratio of reproduction numbers varying between 1.4 and 1.8. We note that these estimates of transmission advantage apply to a period where high levels of social distancing were in place in England; extrapolation to other transmission contexts therefore requires caution....
... Early versions of our analyses informed the UK government policy response to this VOC and that of other countries. The substantial transmission advantage we have estimated the VOC to have over prior viral lineages poses major challenges for ongoing control of COVID-19 in the UK and elsewhere in the coming months. Social distancing measures will need to be more stringent than they would have otherwise. A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021...
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
On the new strain - the following shows the R (calculated from cases data, using the formula for R from MaxPB)
If you shift R upwards by 0.7 - then R would never have been below 1 for the entirety of this epidemic.
@Richard_Tyndall - I tend to agree with you regarding local elections; it's an area where I'm happy to see the franchise drawn a little wider.
I would argue the opposite, that there is a good case for making the franchise wider for an independence referendum. You should only vote for a government if you have a stake in it, by paying taxes etc. But you can legitimately have a stake in your nationality without being resident in the country. These are people that can claim Scottish citizenship if the vote goes that way, and Scottish rather than UK citizenship might even be imposed on them.
I would suggest anyone resident in Scotland or was born in Scotland should be eligible to vote.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
Close to my very bearish expectation. I don't think it's generally dawned how bad the next few weeks in particular will be. One thing will feel better than last year though. We are on our way out. Barring something shocking we are not hoping for an end to the pandemic this year we are awaiting it. And there is an element of pro-action and control with the vaccination rollout. That will make a huge mental difference to a lot of people, I think.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
On the new strain - the following shows the R (calculated from cases data, using the formula for R from MaxPB)
If you shift R upwards by 0.7 - then R would never have been below 1 for the entirety of this epidemic.
Indeed, this is with the mutant strain in just a few areas. Once it's nationwide it's going to be carnage for hospitals.
(who was it that used to capitilise their posts as such, I rather like it)
Corbyn the dafter won't be able to back out now. He's in the race. It'll be very hard for the left of the left to not get behind him.
Khan doesn't really have a base. He's just Labour and not truly unpopular anywhere. He's actually done the London Mayor thing and worked a bit (Ken and Boris did the same).
There's the loose cannon of Brian Rose in the race too. I doubt he'll get more than a handful of votes, but who knows.
All of this makes the race interesting.
So my recommendations for modest bets are;
Lay Brian Rose (current bf price 9ish) Back Bailey (current bf price 22ish) Back Porritt is you can get anything like 1000s (820 was me)
I have a reasonable position here and I'm certainly talking my book. I think though that these are quite nice bets in small stakes anyway though.
It'll be very interesting to see where Piers Corbyn's price is when BF list him. His supporters can't fail to try to help him in much the way Rose has. My guess is that they'll only risk 20s or so.
Don’t forget the voting system. Corbyn votes will mostly transfer to Khan.
Of course yes. Sorry that's very important, and I should have mentioned it.
(who was it that used to capitilise their posts as such, I rather like it)
Corbyn the dafter won't be able to back out now. He's in the race. It'll be very hard for the left of the left to not get behind him.
Khan doesn't really have a base. He's just Labour and not truly unpopular anywhere. He's actually done the London Mayor thing and worked a bit (Ken and Boris did the same).
There's the loose cannon of Brian Rose in the race too. I doubt he'll get more than a handful of votes, but who knows.
All of this makes the race interesting.
So my recommendations for modest bets are;
Lay Brian Rose (current bf price 9ish) Back Bailey (current bf price 22ish) Back Porritt is you can get anything like 1000s (820 was me)
I have a reasonable position here and I'm certainly talking my book. I think though that these are quite nice bets in small stakes anyway though.
It'll be very interesting to see where Piers Corbyn's price is when BF list him. His supporters can't fail to try to help him in much the way Rose has. My guess is that they'll only risk 20s or so.
Yes, could be an interesting betting heat. I'll throw in a prediction. Somebody other than Rose or Bailey will become 2nd favourite to Khan at some point.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
Close to my very bearish expectation. I don't think it's generally dawned how bad the next few weeks in particular will be. One thing will feel better than last year though. We are on our way out. Barring something shocking we are not hoping for an end to the pandemic this year we are awaiting it. And there is an element of pro-action and control with the vaccination rollout. That will make a huge mental difference to a lot of people, I think.
A lot of people don't understand how bad the current numbers and maths are, but I think restrictions will drop quite quickly from end of March. The summer will be fine.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Better treatment. Didn't that one cheap steroid on its own reduce mortality significantly?
Partly better treatment and partly because older people are better isolated now, I think. The care homes scandal was a big driver of death in the Spring.
malcolmg/Theuniondivvie - Cameron was complacent in 2014 and allowed the SNP to implement a non-standard electoral franchise which was in *their* favour. That mistake should not be repeated.
It's not non-standard in Scotland, it's just 'the electoral franchise'.
I am quite relaxed about 16-18 year olds but EU citizens' voting rights ended yesterday and keeping them on the franchise for this would be unacceptable.
If they are resident in the country and meet requirements for the Scottish electoral voting system then why would they not be allowed to vote.
Because this is a decision for Scots. If they feel sufficiently affiliated to this country to take out UK citizenship, fine, no problem. But if they remain French or Spanish or whatever they do not have a right to decide our future.
Clearly the vast majority of EU citizens would vote for Independence in the hope that an independent Scotland would once again join the EU. But would even the SNP want to taint any result in this way?
Unionists don't seem to mind their 2014 victory being tainted by promising a No vote meant staying in the EU, and then dragging Scotland out of the EU against its will.
There's no better way to erase all memory of your existence than be a 2016 Scottish Leave voter is there? The Bermuda triangle like disappearance, never to be spoken of again, of 38% of the voting population is remarkable.
Shocking the way that the wish of the Scottish Leave voters to (checks ballot paper) Leave the European Union have been completely ignored.
That's not the worst point you've ever made, one has to say.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Good job the NHS aren't asking volunteers who want to help to fill in 6 million pages of forms and produce 500 different forms of ID....
I mentioned something about that last night, I expect at the start of next week the NHS will announce something along the lines if you were registered as a doctor in the last few years and can/have passed a DBS then that's all you'll need to be part of the vaccine rollout plan.
I suppose better late than never...what idiot devised the current scheme where even highly qualified individuals are finding nearly impossible to meet all the tick box criteria without spending days of their lives doing extra courses and tracking down obscure forms of ID.
Its one bloody injection, dentists, vets, army medics can all do that in their sleep.
There were allegations that these volunteers even needed to show they had passed 'equality and gender' training.
,,, and remember that we absolutely do not need to vaccinate everybody. Just the right 12-15 million and deaths will fall markedly. Even the right 5-6 million and it should fall significantly.
445 deaths was not what I was expecting to hear today. The situation still seems different from the spring ; huge numbers of people are infected and enough people ill to throw the NHS completely of its feet, but there are still not as many people dying.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
Why wouldnt you assume significantly improved treatment with so much more experience and research available?
What you are seeing in the death numbers is they are climbing, but also the last couple of days there was massive back reporting for the gaps over Christmas.
,,, and remember that we absolutely do not need to vaccinate everybody. Just the right 12-15 million and deaths will fall markedly. Even the right 5-6 million and it should fall significantly.
The key is to get hospitalisations down. Need more for that, but not everyone.
Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?
Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?
Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
Saw that, I'm guessing the country is going to be in Tier 4 until April at the earliest.
Yes, I'm doing the maths on Monday for one of our economic forecasts with various scenarios but from what I can see so far, it will be tier 5-6 across the whole country until at least April, and then a mix of tier 3 and 4 until the start of July. I think July is the earliest we will have anything like "normal" and it will be the middle of August before we can have social gatherings and bars open without social distancing. 2021 is, in many ways, going to be worse than 2020.
There will be major disorder and trouble if it is as long as you are predicting.
Comments
Or does he just like hands on his shoulder?
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/2020s-last-pressing-question-how-big-is-a-blue-whales-anus/
She’s upfront with what she’s all about.
I reckon he thought it was for real
Death waits you! You have made a covenant with death, and with Hell you are in agreement. You're all going to die!
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1345397313209069570
Today
Yesterday
I wonder how Khan towers will respond?
From case data
From hospital data
There is little information in the public domain on the two elder brothers. For some reason.
At least I know what kind of person you are now and suffer no illusions.
On the positivity chart, for example -
You can (almost) see why they wanted schools back on Monday as it's harder to close them again then insist they open.
On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.
(who was it that used to capitilise their posts as such, I rather like it)
Corbyn the dafter won't be able to back out now. He's in the race. It'll be very hard for the left of the left to not get behind him.
Khan doesn't really have a base. He's just Labour and not truly unpopular anywhere. He's actually done the London Mayor thing and worked a bit (Ken and Boris did the same).
There's the loose cannon of Brian Rose in the race too. I doubt he'll get more than a handful of votes, but who knows.
All of this makes the race interesting.
So my recommendations for modest bets are;
Lay Brian Rose (current bf price 9ish)
Back Bailey (current bf price 22ish)
Back Porritt is you can get anything like 1000s (820 was me)
I have a reasonable position here and I'm certainly talking my book. I think though that these are quite nice bets in small stakes anyway though.
It'll be very interesting to see where Piers Corbyn's price is when BF list him. His supporters can't fail to try to help him in much the way Rose has. My guess is that they'll only risk 20s or so.
My guesstimate is that next week will be worse on average, but below the 29th data, following the pattern of previous Monday Effects.
They may well feel that they will vote differently this time and no doubt some of them will. Others will move in the other direction for different reasons. One of the more obvious is the Brexit process itself. Who in their right mind would think that something similar but even more complicated and fractious was a good way to spend the next 5 years?
That's close to 1% of the population every day.
Its one bloody injection, dentists, vets, army medics can all do that in their sleep.
Relative to the number infected, that's odd ; either treatment is hugely improved, or the new strain is acting differently in some way.
It really isnt that difficult. (The Pfizer one obviously harder than flu jabs but aiui process essentially the same for AZ one).
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf
... Available SGTF data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Fourth, we assess the association of VOC frequency with independent estimates of the overall SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number through time. Finally, we fit a semi-mechanistic model directly to local VOC and non-VOC case incidence to estimate the reproduction numbers over time for each. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage, with the estimated difference in reproduction numbers between VOC and non-VOC ranging between 0.4 and 0.7, and the ratio of reproduction numbers varying between 1.4 and 1.8. We note that these estimates of transmission advantage apply to a period where high levels of social distancing were in place in England; extrapolation to other transmission contexts therefore requires caution....
... Early versions of our analyses informed the UK government policy response to this VOC and that of other countries. The substantial transmission advantage we have estimated the VOC to have over prior viral lineages poses major challenges for ongoing control of COVID-19 in the UK and elsewhere in the coming months. Social distancing measures will need to be more stringent than they would have otherwise. A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021...
If you shift R upwards by 0.7 - then R would never have been below 1 for the entirety of this epidemic.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
I would suggest anyone resident in Scotland or was born in Scotland should be eligible to vote.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
This is weekly data, Monday-Sunday and being updated around Wednesday the following week...
By actual data of death -