Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

All of us Brits can enjoy the fact we have a government that has, as a matter of policy, decided we should enjoy less freedom and be second class citizens in our own country. I imagine it's what you voted for, Phil, but I am not sure it's what others did.

We have more freedom in some ways than we did, less than we did in other ways. That's politics. But we have more freedom in the most important way in a democracy - we can directly elect those who make our laws going forwards. We are taking back control of those who voted for our laws and that is the catchphrase that won 52% of the vote at the referendum in case you have forgotten. Win a future election and you can change the policies in the future.

As individuals we have far less freedom in our own shores than Irish citizens who live here. British citizens, as individuals, have far less freedom than before. So we are second class. As a follower of Ayn Rand surely you must chafe at the loss of individual freedom at the expense of the state getting theoretically getting more (freedom it can’t even exercise de facto)?

Name one freedom we have lost domestically please, within our own shores.

Not to have to pay UK VAT AND a £16 handling fee to the Post Office whenever I buy something from an European shop by mail order.

That's not a freedom. Taxes need to be paid on imports, that isn't new. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Imports aren't from within our own shores either, that's kind of the point.

I am enjoying you denying people the right to define what freedoms they have. As you have taken on that role, clearly it will be impossible for anyone to identify a freedom they have lost.

The claim was within these shores. Imports aren't within these shores by definition.

Name any freedom within these shores, not involving overseas that we have lost. I am not denying for a second that we have lost what some might term freedoms when it comes to dealing with abroad.

Imports are within these shores by definition. They come from abroad and end up here.

I am not interested in your semantics. I am interested in the multiple freedoms I have lost as an individual and as a business owner. As a UK-based employer I have lost the freedom to recruit from the talent pool that was previously available, while also losing the freedom to sell my goods and services into an important market. As an individual, I have lost the freedom to work, study and travel in 30 countries that I had previously.

I understand totally that this does not bother you.

Yes stuff relating to abroad that were debated in 2016, not disputing that.

So you're not denying that the citizens of the UK are experiencing significant reductions in their personal freedoms that they used to enjoy and expect as of right? Just we voted for it apparently, so no biggie.

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cicero said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

All of us Brits can enjoy the fact we have a government that has, as a matter of policy, decided we should enjoy less freedom and be second class citizens in our own country. I imagine it's what you voted for, Phil, but I am not sure it's what others did.

We have more freedom in some ways than we did, less than we did in other ways. That's politics. But we have more freedom in the most important way in a democracy - we can directly elect those who make our laws going forwards. We are taking back control of those who voted for our laws and that is the catchphrase that won 52% of the vote at the referendum in case you have forgotten. Win a future election and you can change the policies in the future.

As individuals we have far less freedom in our own shores than Irish citizens who live here. British citizens, as individuals, have far less freedom than before. So we are second class. As a follower of Ayn Rand surely you must chafe at the loss of individual freedom at the expense of the state getting theoretically getting more (freedom it can’t even exercise de facto)?

Name one freedom we have lost domestically please, within our own shores.

Not to have to pay UK VAT AND a £16 handling fee to the Post Office whenever I buy something from an European shop by mail order.

That's not a freedom. Taxes need to be paid on imports, that isn't new. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Imports aren't from within our own shores either, that's kind of the point.

Well it is internal isn´t it? It is a drastic loss of choice of goods and a sharp increase in prices. You may live on faggots and Wensleydale, but for those that like Salami or French cheese...

No abroad is external not internal.

We can choose domestically how we tax imports and those taxes have always existed they're not new. If you don't like them, vote for a change.

I like stuff from all over the globe not just Europe. I see no reason to discriminate in favour of European goods against others. If the EU wish to agree as sovereign equals a Canada style free trade agreement then I am all in favour of that. I have never once preferred no deal.

Do you really want me to quote back at you the “bring it on” posts regarding No Deal you posted as recently as this morning. “Brilliant” was the word used IIRC.

If the EU aren't prepared to compromise, absolutely yes.

It's like getting a silver medal in the Olymoicsz it may not be your first preference but it is still a good outcome.

It’s not a good outcome because no one benefits. Sovereignty is a concept, an idea, a collective illusion, not a real thing. It’s hard even to define properly, You can’t eat sovereignty any more than you can eat religion. Indeed the U.K. government doesn’t have the resources to exercise it. It’s a terrible outcome but worse for us. Sacrificing lives and prosperity on the altar of a nebulous concept like sovereignty is as futile as the Aztecs sacrificing lives on the altar of their equally conceptual gods.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

I don’t mind being called buttercup, it’s kinda cute.

How do you tackle the argument someone right next door cannot have a Canada style deal. That our geographical position to EU means many benefits offered to Canada Japan for example we cannot in all fairness be allowed to have?

Indeed - how many lorries travel between Canada and the EU each day?

But those same EU lorries need access to the UK to sell EU goods. In fact it's an unequal relationship given that we have a huge good deficit with the EU. We're giving EU haulage privileged access to the UK rather than making companies export by ships and then have UK haulage companies do the internal shipping.

You act as if it's a one way street and that the UK is asking for something that we are proposing to deny the EU. Brexit has completely addled your brains, Joff.

My brain is sharp enough to understand that the UK trades with one single EU market, while 27 individual countries trade with the UK, thus EU-wide deficits and surpluses are far less relevant to them than they are to us. My brain also realises that no lorries currently run between Canada and the EU each day so right there an issue exists that a Canada-style FTA can never cover.

That's why it's called the "Canada style" deal, unless you're suggesting that haulage is why the EU is insisting on the LPF and way over the top governance? As I said, haulage is an area where the EU benefits because it allows the 27 nations to operate in the UK as normal and we're a huge net importer of EU goods. In a no deal scenario the UK could put up a very simple NTB on haulage and say that all lorries must be right hand drive to operate on UK roads, suddenly EU haulage companies are locked out of the UK market and EU companies have to export by shipping container or rail freight. Once again, the UK has offered fair terms on this and aiui the EU has agreed to them.

The "Canada style" deal should be possible, that the EU are asking for all of these additional terms is on them and the UK is quite rightly saying no to the LPF and has successfully watered down governance to a post-action arbitration agreement rather than pre-action permission.

The UK is asking for non-Canada terms across a range of areas - including haulage and mutual recognition. And rightly so, of course. We are not Canada. What the UK fails to accept, though, is that if you want more than Canada you have to give more than Canada. What you fail to understand is that access to the UK market is not as big a deal for 27 individual EU states as access to the single market is for the UK. Of course, we can restrict the right of EU hauliers to bring goods into the UK, but finding replacement suppliers will - at an absolute minimum - take time. Given what we import, that is going to be a problem for us.

Philip_Thompson said:

alex_ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

I don’t mind being called buttercup, it’s kinda cute.

How do you tackle the argument someone right next door cannot have a Canada style deal. That our geographical position to EU means many benefits offered to Canada Japan for example we cannot in all fairness be allowed to have?

I will tackle that argument by saying it is a lie.

Of course countries next door to each other can have simple free trade agreements. Countries next door to each other all over the globe have simple free trade agreements.

If the EU don't want to offer us that then that is a political choice, it is not a case of "cannot". The outcome of their political choice will be No Deal, because they chose not to compromise. We are under no obligation whatsoever to go further than a standard free trade agreement.

The moment Britain quits the CU and starts a FTA our commerce instantly becomes more expensive.  A customs union is the removal of tariff barriers between members, together with acceptance of a common tariff against non-members.  Countries that export to the customs union only need to make a single payment once the goods have passed through the border. Once inside goods can move freely without additional tariffs. Tariff revenue may then be shared between members, with the possibility that the country that collects the duty retaining a share, between 20 and 25% in the European customs union to cover the additional administration costs associated with border trade.   That is an awful lot of money that helps with administration costs to be surrendering at stroke of a pen to be absorbed by our businesses.   
        
One of the strongest arguments for a customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that.   For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
can Britain outside really compete with Europe on this basis? Inside the EU Britaingains from trade creation massively outweigh the losses from trade diversion, becuase 
 this isn’t just for final goods and resources, this is beneficial for supply chains integral to what the deindustrialising British economy has become, tariff free movement within the  customs union for important supply chain.  

Yes that is a detailed argument to remain within a customs union. Kudos to you for that. But that argument lost the referendum five years ago and furthermore not just one but two General Elections since.

A customs union is off the table. Whether you think it right or wrong it has already been thrice rejected politically.

Not only that but the UK has already committed in law to exiting the Customs Union on 01/01/2021 and we have new Free Trade Agreements already signed ready to be implements from just a few weeks from now.

So the argument has boiled down to what type of free trade agreement we will sign and have, if any, once we are out of the customs union. All your arguments in favour of a customs union are no more relevant politically to the ongoing negotiations between Barnier and Frost than arguing that meat is murder when someone has already sat down in a steakhouse and is being asked how well done they want their steak.

You sure.. The problem of ensuring UK cannot benefit from trade deflection, the have cake and eat it brexit, and the threat to our supply chains because we left the CU is surely part of the conversation? Genuine problems created that need a solution.

No it isn't. Frost and Barnier are not negotiating a customs union. It isn't even a part of the conversation. It hasn't been all along.

All that means is that the problems that a Customs Union resolves can't be resolved by a customs union. The problems are still there to be solved. Other mechanisms will need to be found. Which won't be easy.

No, they don't. Not via the negotiations.

The problem is people perceiving EU membership as the default but it isn't. No deal is the default. We should be having both parties approaching these negotiations seeking to reach common cause where possible, not trying to replicate everything the EU ever did.

Come to think of it, why do people perceive modern civilisation as the default?

Maybe huddling together in a cave trying to keep warm as we gnaw raw vegetables should be considered the default.

Scenarion: NO Deal. New US Administration. Conversation, No Trade Deal with us unless there is a Referendum!

Bit late to the party, but just wanted to say that this is one of the best (i.e. "I agree with it the most" 😀) headers of the year. Concise and precise deconstruction of the problem.

MaxPB said:

nico679 said:

The EU has already reduced its ask in terms of state aid . Bizarely the UK which never liked state aid is now using this as another excuse to crash the negotiations.

In terms of workers rights and environmental protections why is the UK refusing to have a minimum standard which they keep telling everyone the UK is well above anyway so why the drama over that .

The UK wants much more than a Canada FTA in a range of areas including things like the energy market so it’s yet another lie peddled by no 10 that the EU is moving the goalposts.

It's not state aid, this characterisation of the LPF as state aid has been one of the worst developments of this process. The LPF covers a huge number of regulatory areas and asks for full future alignment, forever. It also leaves the EU as the judge of any breach of the LPF at which point the whole deal can be unilaterally suspended by the EU. At last reading the LPF covered state aid, environment, employment, tax and food standards. There is no single government in the world that would give up tax setting ability to a third party and while that demand exists from the EU, no deal is an inevitability. I've been saying this from the start when we went into the transition period and I'm about to be proven right.

And EYE have been saying from the start that No Deal is a Not & Never Happening Event upon which more time and energy has been wasted speculating than just about anything I can recall.

One of us is indeed about to be proved right.

The tension, the tension ...

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

All of us Brits can enjoy the fact we have a government that has, as a matter of policy, decided we should enjoy less freedom and be second class citizens in our own country. I imagine it's what you voted for, Phil, but I am not sure it's what others did.

We have more freedom in some ways than we did, less than we did in other ways. That's politics. But we have more freedom in the most important way in a democracy - we can directly elect those who make our laws going forwards. We are taking back control of those who voted for our laws and that is the catchphrase that won 52% of the vote at the referendum in case you have forgotten. Win a future election and you can change the policies in the future.

As individuals we have far less freedom in our own shores than Irish citizens who live here. British citizens, as individuals, have far less freedom than before. So we are second class. As a follower of Ayn Rand surely you must chafe at the loss of individual freedom at the expense of the state getting theoretically getting more (freedom it can’t even exercise de facto)?

Name one freedom we have lost domestically please, within our own shores.

Not to have to pay UK VAT AND a £16 handling fee to the Post Office whenever I buy something from an European shop by mail order.

That's not a freedom. Taxes need to be paid on imports, that isn't new. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Imports aren't from within our own shores either, that's kind of the point.

I am enjoying you denying people the right to define what freedoms they have. As you have taken on that role, clearly it will be impossible for anyone to identify a freedom they have lost.

The claim was within these shores. Imports aren't within these shores by definition.

Name any freedom within these shores, not involving overseas that we have lost. I am not denying for a second that we have lost what some might term freedoms when it comes to dealing with abroad.

Imports are within these shores by definition. They come from abroad and end up here.

I am not interested in your semantics. I am interested in the multiple freedoms I have lost as an individual and as a business owner. As a UK-based employer I have lost the freedom to recruit from the talent pool that was previously available, while also losing the freedom to sell my goods and services into an important market. As an individual, I have lost the freedom to work, study and travel in 30 countries that I had previously.

I understand totally that this does not bother you.

Yes stuff relating to abroad that were debated in 2016, not disputing that.

We debated it then.
In a month's time we’ll experience all that ‘stuff’.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

All of us Brits can enjoy the fact we have a government that has, as a matter of policy, decided we should enjoy less freedom and be second class citizens in our own country. I imagine it's what you voted for, Phil, but I am not sure it's what others did.

We have more freedom in some ways than we did, less than we did in other ways. That's politics. But we have more freedom in the most important way in a democracy - we can directly elect those who make our laws going forwards. We are taking back control of those who voted for our laws and that is the catchphrase that won 52% of the vote at the referendum in case you have forgotten. Win a future election and you can change the policies in the future.

As individuals we have far less freedom in our own shores than Irish citizens who live here. British citizens, as individuals, have far less freedom than before. So we are second class. As a follower of Ayn Rand surely you must chafe at the loss of individual freedom at the expense of the state getting theoretically getting more (freedom it can’t even exercise de facto)?

Name one freedom we have lost domestically please, within our own shores.

Not to have to pay UK VAT AND a £16 handling fee to the Post Office whenever I buy something from an European shop by mail order.

That's not a freedom. Taxes need to be paid on imports, that isn't new. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Imports aren't from within our own shores either, that's kind of the point.

I am enjoying you denying people the right to define what freedoms they have. As you have taken on that role, clearly it will be impossible for anyone to identify a freedom they have lost.

The claim was within these shores. Imports aren't within these shores by definition.

Name any freedom within these shores, not involving overseas that we have lost. I am not denying for a second that we have lost what some might term freedoms when it comes to dealing with abroad.

Imports are within these shores by definition. They come from abroad and end up here.

I am not interested in your semantics. I am interested in the multiple freedoms I have lost as an individual and as a business owner. As a UK-based employer I have lost the freedom to recruit from the talent pool that was previously available, while also losing the freedom to sell my goods and services into an important market. As an individual, I have lost the freedom to work, study and travel in 30 countries that I had previously.

I understand totally that this does not bother you.

Yes stuff relating to abroad that were debated in 2016, not disputing that.

What is happening now is not what Boris Johnson said would happen back in 2016, after the referendum.

The governments obsession with sovereignty even when all deals mean you have to give some of that away will be the reason if this ends up with no deal .

This purety test on sovereignty seems to be elevated when it comes to the EU fueled by a section of the media and Tory MPs who have spent decades building the EU up as an enemy not a partner .

So any compromises with the EU are bad but okay with say the USA . Bozo never bothered to push a narrative of compromises needed to get a good deal that protects the economy , most people understand the need for compromise but this is now heresy amongst sections of the media and the ERG who won’t be happy unless the UK becomes an isolated rock .

The Tories have spent the last 4 years working solely on what’s good for them and their internal psychodramas over the EU and Bozo will do what’s good for him and fuck the rest of the country .

Stark_Dawning said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Yes, it's the kind of mentality that thought the British Empire would last a thousand years, based on nothing other than wistfulness - 'Things always tend to carry on as they did before'. I'm fearful. Brexit is the most massive political experiment in post-war British history, and it is being implemented (if that's not too flattering a word) by people whose abilities, to an absolute degree, are inversely related to the magnitude of the task. Deeply worrying.

That's a bit of a strawman. Who claimed the British empire would last a thousand years? Yes there were fools who thought the empire was a great thing (Churchill amongst them). But thousand years? nah.

alex_ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

alex_ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

I don’t mind being called buttercup, it’s kinda cute.

How do you tackle the argument someone right next door cannot have a Canada style deal. That our geographical position to EU means many benefits offered to Canada Japan for example we cannot in all fairness be allowed to have?

I will tackle that argument by saying it is a lie.

Of course countries next door to each other can have simple free trade agreements. Countries next door to each other all over the globe have simple free trade agreements.

If the EU don't want to offer us that then that is a political choice, it is not a case of "cannot". The outcome of their political choice will be No Deal, because they chose not to compromise. We are under no obligation whatsoever to go further than a standard free trade agreement.

The moment Britain quits the CU and starts a FTA our commerce instantly becomes more expensive.  A customs union is the removal of tariff barriers between members, together with acceptance of a common tariff against non-members.  Countries that export to the customs union only need to make a single payment once the goods have passed through the border. Once inside goods can move freely without additional tariffs. Tariff revenue may then be shared between members, with the possibility that the country that collects the duty retaining a share, between 20 and 25% in the European customs union to cover the additional administration costs associated with border trade.   That is an awful lot of money that helps with administration costs to be surrendering at stroke of a pen to be absorbed by our businesses.   
        
One of the strongest arguments for a customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that.   For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
can Britain outside really compete with Europe on this basis? Inside the EU Britaingains from trade creation massively outweigh the losses from trade diversion, becuase 
 this isn’t just for final goods and resources, this is beneficial for supply chains integral to what the deindustrialising British economy has become, tariff free movement within the  customs union for important supply chain.  

Yes that is a detailed argument to remain within a customs union. Kudos to you for that. But that argument lost the referendum five years ago and furthermore not just one but two General Elections since.

A customs union is off the table. Whether you think it right or wrong it has already been thrice rejected politically.

Not only that but the UK has already committed in law to exiting the Customs Union on 01/01/2021 and we have new Free Trade Agreements already signed ready to be implements from just a few weeks from now.

So the argument has boiled down to what type of free trade agreement we will sign and have, if any, once we are out of the customs union. All your arguments in favour of a customs union are no more relevant politically to the ongoing negotiations between Barnier and Frost than arguing that meat is murder when someone has already sat down in a steakhouse and is being asked how well done they want their steak.

You sure.. The problem of ensuring UK cannot benefit from trade deflection, the have cake and eat it brexit, and the threat to our supply chains because we left the CU is surely part of the conversation? Genuine problems created that need a solution.

No it isn't. Frost and Barnier are not negotiating a customs union. It isn't even a part of the conversation. It hasn't been all along.

All that means is that the problems that a Customs Union resolves can't be resolved by a customs union. The problems are still there to be solved. Other mechanisms will need to be found. Which won't be easy.

No, they don't. Not via the negotiations.

The problem is people perceiving EU membership as the default but it isn't. No deal is the default. We should be having both parties approaching these negotiations seeking to reach common cause where possible, not trying to replicate everything the EU ever did.

No deal is the default, but it is not the status quo. Big difference. Trade negotiations are normally about seeking out common wins. This is simply about limiting losses.

Only if you haven't internalised the fact that we have left the EU and will be trading on no deal terms automatically in a matter of weeks.

We should be seeking out common wins on that basis.

JohnLilburne said:

Philip_Thompson said:

alex_ said:

I suspect that one of the real reasons for the likely utter failure of the UK-EU talks (and probably the conclusions that the EU will draw in the post-mortem) is that the EU fundamentally made from the start is that they thought they were engaging in a conventional trade negotiation where both sides would prioritise the most important things to them for trade purposes.

They probably just didn't realise that the whole thing might get blown up over bl**dy fish, which is an absolutely minute part of the UK economy. If they had actually realised how important this was, it would have probably been sorted out months ago (and as somebody suggested, with the French fisherman being bought off). Instead it was allowed to fester unaddressed, with the EU probably thinking that it was just being left there as a suitable 'concession' that could be offered up at a future date (because it was of little fundamental economic importance to a deal).

But now it sits there, front and centre of the hold up, neither side can give way on it. It's too late to make a concession on it, and so the whole thing is stuffed. At hugely damaging economic cost to the potential economic effect of either side giving way.

You may be right.

If only the EU had some idea that perhaps the UK might be as concerned by sovereignty issues as it is trade ones. If only something could have happened in recent years, or decades, to suggest that sovereignty might be a concern in this nation. Or that we might philosophically approach this differently to them.

Surely the answer with fish is:

* The EU agrees we have sovereign rights over our waters
* We pre-agree to sell quota rights to the EU for a number of years
* Something is included in the deal that can be treated as consideration for the sale

That way, we get our sovereignty and the EU gets its fish

That was, up until last week, what I think most of us had assumed was being discussed!

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

LOL....

alex_ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

All of us Brits can enjoy the fact we have a government that has, as a matter of policy, decided we should enjoy less freedom and be second class citizens in our own country. I imagine it's what you voted for, Phil, but I am not sure it's what others did.

We have more freedom in some ways than we did, less than we did in other ways. That's politics. But we have more freedom in the most important way in a democracy - we can directly elect those who make our laws going forwards. We are taking back control of those who voted for our laws and that is the catchphrase that won 52% of the vote at the referendum in case you have forgotten. Win a future election and you can change the policies in the future.

As individuals we have far less freedom in our own shores than Irish citizens who live here. British citizens, as individuals, have far less freedom than before. So we are second class. As a follower of Ayn Rand surely you must chafe at the loss of individual freedom at the expense of the state getting theoretically getting more (freedom it can’t even exercise de facto)?

Name one freedom we have lost domestically please, within our own shores.

Not to have to pay UK VAT AND a £16 handling fee to the Post Office whenever I buy something from an European shop by mail order.

That's not a freedom. Taxes need to be paid on imports, that isn't new. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Imports aren't from within our own shores either, that's kind of the point.

I am enjoying you denying people the right to define what freedoms they have. As you have taken on that role, clearly it will be impossible for anyone to identify a freedom they have lost.

The claim was within these shores. Imports aren't within these shores by definition.

Name any freedom within these shores, not involving overseas that we have lost. I am not denying for a second that we have lost what some might term freedoms when it comes to dealing with abroad.

Imports are within these shores by definition. They come from abroad and end up here.

I am not interested in your semantics. I am interested in the multiple freedoms I have lost as an individual and as a business owner. As a UK-based employer I have lost the freedom to recruit from the talent pool that was previously available, while also losing the freedom to sell my goods and services into an important market. As an individual, I have lost the freedom to work, study and travel in 30 countries that I had previously.

I understand totally that this does not bother you.

Yes stuff relating to abroad that were debated in 2016, not disputing that.

So you're not denying that the citizens of the UK are experiencing significant reductions in their personal freedoms that they used to enjoy and expect as of right? Just we voted for it apparently, so no biggie.

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI - the BDI - has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."

Boris Johnson, 26th June, 2016, the weekend after the referendum. It turns out that what he meant was: "Some British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down." And that there would not be free trade, while access to the single market would be significantly reduced.

nico679 said:

The governments obsession with sovereignty even when all deals mean you have to give some of that away will be the reason if this ends up with no deal .

This purety test on sovereignty seems to be elevated when it comes to the EU fueled by a section of the media and Tory MPs who have spent decades building the EU up as an enemy not a partner .

So any compromises with the EU are bad but okay with say the USA . Bozo never bothered to push a narrative of compromises needed to get a good deal that protects the economy , most people understand the need for compromise but this is now heresy amongst sections of the media and the ERG who won’t be happy unless the UK becomes an isolated rock .

The Tories have spent the last 4 years working solely on what’s good for them and their internal psychodramas over the EU and Bozo will do what’s good for him and fuck the rest of the country .

The UK has agreed to the principle of standard FTA style sovereignty compromises with the EU.

It isn't true to suggest that we would be ok with compromises with the USA that we wouldn't with the EU. If the USA wanted us to be obliged to follow their tax, environment, labour and other laws then I can guarantee you that there would be almost nobody in this nation ok with that.

https://twitter.com/barnes_joe/status/1335578508035284992?s=21

contrarian said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

If you think Smith’s Rhodesia was socialist then I have no hope for you.

For the record, it wasn;t really Smith's Rhodesia that collapsed. It was Mugabe's Zimbabwe.

Really? So Smith went to Lancaster House out of the goodness of his heart I suppose?

Philip_Thompson said:

alex_ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

I don’t mind being called buttercup, it’s kinda cute.

How do you tackle the argument someone right next door cannot have a Canada style deal. That our geographical position to EU means many benefits offered to Canada Japan for example we cannot in all fairness be allowed to have?

I will tackle that argument by saying it is a lie.

Of course countries next door to each other can have simple free trade agreements. Countries next door to each other all over the globe have simple free trade agreements.

If the EU don't want to offer us that then that is a political choice, it is not a case of "cannot". The outcome of their political choice will be No Deal, because they chose not to compromise. We are under no obligation whatsoever to go further than a standard free trade agreement.

The moment Britain quits the CU and starts a FTA our commerce instantly becomes more expensive.  A customs union is the removal of tariff barriers between members, together with acceptance of a common tariff against non-members.  Countries that export to the customs union only need to make a single payment once the goods have passed through the border. Once inside goods can move freely without additional tariffs. Tariff revenue may then be shared between members, with the possibility that the country that collects the duty retaining a share, between 20 and 25% in the European customs union to cover the additional administration costs associated with border trade.   That is an awful lot of money that helps with administration costs to be surrendering at stroke of a pen to be absorbed by our businesses.   
        
One of the strongest arguments for a customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that.   For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
can Britain outside really compete with Europe on this basis? Inside the EU Britaingains from trade creation massively outweigh the losses from trade diversion, becuase 
 this isn’t just for final goods and resources, this is beneficial for supply chains integral to what the deindustrialising British economy has become, tariff free movement within the  customs union for important supply chain.  

Yes that is a detailed argument to remain within a customs union. Kudos to you for that. But that argument lost the referendum five years ago and furthermore not just one but two General Elections since.

A customs union is off the table. Whether you think it right or wrong it has already been thrice rejected politically.

Not only that but the UK has already committed in law to exiting the Customs Union on 01/01/2021 and we have new Free Trade Agreements already signed ready to be implements from just a few weeks from now.

So the argument has boiled down to what type of free trade agreement we will sign and have, if any, once we are out of the customs union. All your arguments in favour of a customs union are no more relevant politically to the ongoing negotiations between Barnier and Frost than arguing that meat is murder when someone has already sat down in a steakhouse and is being asked how well done they want their steak.

You sure.. The problem of ensuring UK cannot benefit from trade deflection, the have cake and eat it brexit, and the threat to our supply chains because we left the CU is surely part of the conversation? Genuine problems created that need a solution.

No it isn't. Frost and Barnier are not negotiating a customs union. It isn't even a part of the conversation. It hasn't been all along.

All that means is that the problems that a Customs Union resolves can't be resolved by a customs union. The problems are still there to be solved. Other mechanisms will need to be found. Which won't be easy.

No, they don't. Not via the negotiations.

The problem is people perceiving EU membership as the default but it isn't. No deal is the default. We should be having both parties approaching these negotiations seeking to reach common cause where possible, not trying to replicate everything the EU ever did.

We perceived EU membership as the default, because since 1973 membership at least of the Common Market was indeed the default.

From now on membership will no longer be the default, but unhitching us from an almost 50 year of normalcy was never going to be as easy as Johnson and Farage claimed.

It is like trying to unlearn everything one has ever learned, before starting the learning process all over again.

On topic for once, I think Alastair is being rather disingenuous regarding his introduction to this thread header. The problem with South Africa was that the conspiracy theories and anti-scientific arguments were coming from the Government themselves. Or at least from an influential part of it. This is in no way the same as idiot anti-vaxxers spouting of on the social media or on the news. Indeed the problem with Alastair's whole thesis is that what it actually means it is that it is the people in charge who decide what is acceptable debate and what is not.

Under different circumstances and in a situation more like that of South Africa we could well find ourselves in a position where the 'right' arguments as he and I might see them (since I agree with him regarding the importance of vaccines and the medical consensus on the pandemic) are considered wrong by the people in charge and it is we who have our views censored.

This is why, in the end, platform denial is the wrong way to go and education and dialogue must always be the route to take to ensure people are properly informed, even if some still choose to believe something else.

justin124 said:

Gallowgate said:

Boris is so untrusted that all such a TV broadcast would do is further cement divisions in the country. Half will believe it, half will think it's dross.

God help us.

Starmer's reply the next day would be interesting too!

It wouldn’t be difficult to write

Boris failed to negotiate what he said was the easiest deal in history

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

If you think Smith’s Rhodesia was socialist then I have no hope for you. For someone that spends seemingly every minute of every day on a politics board one would have thought that you’d have some idea.

Smith's Rhodesia was relatively economically successful. It was racially flawed not economically.

Mugabe OTOH was a socialist and the country collapsed economically after embracing socialism.

Oops.

So the Smith was not forced to the negotiating table by the collapse of the Rhodesian economy in 1979? That’s some revisionist history you’ve got going there. Your really need to check things before posting.

rcs1000 said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

Yes it was sad that Cambodia threw away the world's second largest financial market, and Cuba lost all those universities in the world's top 10.

The Khmer Rouge took over in Cambodia in 1975.

I'm struggling to find any Cambodian financial market in 1974 (or 1970) that was even in the top ten world markets.

Could you enlighten me please?

I was trying to make the point that all of the examples given of countries that collapsed socially and economically are glaringly extremely different to 21st century Britain.

contrarian said:

rcs1000 said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

Yes it was sad that Cambodia threw away the world's second largest financial market, and Cuba lost all those universities in the world's top 10.

The Khmer Rouge took over in Cambodia in 1975.

I'm struggling to find any Cambodian financial market in 1974 (or 1970) that was even in the top ten world markets.

Could you enlighten me please?

I was trying to make the point that all of the examples given of countries that collapsed socially and economically are glaringly extremely different to 21st century Britain.

If it were Italy about to leave the EU with no deal, would you be equally sure about its resilience?

contrarian said:

rcs1000 said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

Yes it was sad that Cambodia threw away the world's second largest financial market, and Cuba lost all those universities in the world's top 10.

The Khmer Rouge took over in Cambodia in 1975.

I'm struggling to find any Cambodian financial market in 1974 (or 1970) that was even in the top ten world markets.

Could you enlighten me please?

I was trying to make the point that all of the examples given of countries that collapsed socially and economically are glaringly extremely different to 21st century Britain.

Yes, it’s a good job we’re not like Venezuela who only have vast oil reserves.

gealbhan said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

I don’t mind being called buttercup, it’s kinda cute.

How do you tackle the argument someone right next door cannot have a Canada style deal. That our geographical position to EU means many benefits offered to Canada Japan for example we cannot in all fairness be allowed to have?

I will tackle that argument by saying it is a lie.

Of course countries next door to each other can have simple free trade agreements. Countries next door to each other all over the globe have simple free trade agreements.

If the EU don't want to offer us that then that is a political choice, it is not a case of "cannot". The outcome of their political choice will be No Deal, because they chose not to compromise. We are under no obligation whatsoever to go further than a standard free trade agreement.

The moment Britain quits the CU and starts a FTA our commerce instantly becomes more expensive.  A customs union is the removal of tariff barriers between members, together with acceptance of a common tariff against non-members.  Countries that export to the customs union only need to make a single payment once the goods have passed through the border. Once inside goods can move freely without additional tariffs. Tariff revenue may then be shared between members, with the possibility that the country that collects the duty retaining a share, between 20 and 25% in the European customs union to cover the additional administration costs associated with border trade.   That is an awful lot of money that helps with administration costs to be surrendering at stroke of a pen to be absorbed by our businesses.   
        
One of the strongest arguments for a customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that.   For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
can Britain outside really compete with Europe on this basis? Inside the EU Britaingains from trade creation massively outweigh the losses from trade diversion, because 
 this isn’t just for final goods and resources, this is beneficial for supply chains integral to what the deindustrialising British economy has become, tariff free movement within the  customs union for important supply chain.  

The problem you have with this argument is that you are not distinguishing between 'a' customs union and 'The' Customs Union. The difference is crucial.

If you are outside the EU then you are not allowed to be in The Customs Union. This has never been on offer and is not now. Even the EFTA members of the EEA cannot be inside The Customs Union as it is an integral feature of the EU and as such is not available to any non EU members (with the exception of a few tiny territories).

So the only way to have the sort of customs union you are suggesting is to be inside a customs union. The only country that is in this situation is Turkey and it is a very poor position to be in. It basically means that any external country that has a trade agreement with the EU can trade into your country free of tariffs but you do not have the reciprocal right to trade into the third party country without your own trade agreement with them. This is why Turkey made clear that if the US/EU trade agreement went ahead they would have to leave the customs union with the EU. They simply couldn't afford to be in it.

What you want - the UK inside The Customs Union is forbidden by the basic treaties governing the existence of the EU.

Yes this is a very strong response to my post.

But no longer being in “the EU” CU does throw up problem where our economy has shaped on the basis it was and would be, threats to our supply lines? EU would also have a problem with FTA on doorstep and trade deflection?

Do you know how the non CU countries in and around EU manage these issues?

I think the short answer is they don't - at least not entirely. They mitigate most of the worst effects by being in the EEA - which is where I have always argued we should end up. This removes most of the barriers to trade and makes the remaining CU issues easily manageable. Of course for them it was far easier as they were coming in the opposite direction, reducing barriers by joining the EEA which meant there was a steady improvement of trade relations rather than a diminution.

Turkey is the one that suffers the worst as they are not allowed into the EEA and have the 'compensation' of the individual customs union. But this very much has its limits as they illustrated with their concerns about the prospective TTIP before it collapsed.

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

If you think Smith’s Rhodesia was socialist then I have no hope for you. For someone that spends seemingly every minute of every day on a politics board one would have thought that you’d have some idea.

Smith's Rhodesia was relatively economically successful. It was racially flawed not economically.

Mugabe OTOH was a socialist and the country collapsed economically after embracing socialism.

Oops.

Ian Smith's Rhodesia as a beacon of economic enlightenment, wow!

As you have indicated a relativity between the two regimes, maybe you have a point. However, you are simply comparing something very nasty with something even nastier.

Carnyx said:

contrarian said:

SouthamObserver said:

alex_ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

All of us Brits can enjoy the fact we have a government that has, as a matter of policy, decided we should enjoy less freedom and be second class citizens in our own country. I imagine it's what you voted for, Phil, but I am not sure it's what others did.

We have more freedom in some ways than we did, less than we did in other ways. That's politics. But we have more freedom in the most important way in a democracy - we can directly elect those who make our laws going forwards. We are taking back control of those who voted for our laws and that is the catchphrase that won 52% of the vote at the referendum in case you have forgotten. Win a future election and you can change the policies in the future.

As individuals we have far less freedom in our own shores than Irish citizens who live here. British citizens, as individuals, have far less freedom than before. So we are second class. As a follower of Ayn Rand surely you must chafe at the loss of individual freedom at the expense of the state getting theoretically getting more (freedom it can’t even exercise de facto)?

Name one freedom we have lost domestically please, within our own shores.

Not to have to pay UK VAT AND a £16 handling fee to the Post Office whenever I buy something from an European shop by mail order.

That's not a freedom. Taxes need to be paid on imports, that isn't new. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Imports aren't from within our own shores either, that's kind of the point.

I am enjoying you denying people the right to define what freedoms they have. As you have taken on that role, clearly it will be impossible for anyone to identify a freedom they have lost.

The claim was within these shores. Imports aren't within these shores by definition.

Name any freedom within these shores, not involving overseas that we have lost. I am not denying for a second that we have lost what some might term freedoms when it comes to dealing with abroad.

Imports are within these shores by definition. They come from abroad and end up here.

I am not interested in your semantics. I am interested in the multiple freedoms I have lost as an individual and as a business owner. As a UK-based employer I have lost the freedom to recruit from the talent pool that was previously available, while also losing the freedom to sell my goods and services into an important market. As an individual, I have lost the freedom to work, study and travel in 30 countries that I had previously.

I understand totally that this does not bother you.

Yes stuff relating to abroad that were debated in 2016, not disputing that.

So you're not denying that the citizens of the UK are experiencing significant reductions in their personal freedoms that they used to enjoy and expect as of right? Just we voted for it apparently, so no biggie.

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI - the BDI - has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."

Boris Johnson, 26th June, 2016, the weekend after the referendum. It turns out that what he meant was: "Some British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down." And that there would not be free trade, while access to the single market would be significantly reduced.

For the vast majority of ordinary people in Britain, there was zero prospect of them or their kin ever working in the European Union. Zero prospect of them buying property in Europe. Many could not afford travel in Europe, either, or study. Either in or out of the EU.

All those Glaswegians holidaying in Spain must have been doing it outside the EU.

Useless fact: I've never been to Spain proper, if you define it as the mainland where they speak Spanish. Been to the Canary Islands a few times when I was very young on family holidays, and visited Barcelona for 3 or 4 days about 10 years ago. That's all. I was planning to go to Madrid this year but I don't know when that will be possible.

Afternoon all

There is a wider issue beyond fish and level playing fields that we (and the EU) have yet to fully grasp - while we aren't technically the first country to leave the EU we are the most significant.

The UK leaving has consequences for the EU - the UK leaving the EU also has consequences for the UK. The problem is until it happens no-one will be able to appreciate or understand what those consequences are and the impact they will have not just economically but socially, politically and culturally.

I came to the conclusion in 2016 our half-hearted membership of the EU was detrimental to both the UK and the EU. The only two credible positions were either to be fully outside or to be fully inside pushing the line for full political and economic union. The latter was unacceptable for cultural and historical reasons so the former became the only option even though being "in" Europe had been the cornerstone of British foreign and economic policy since 1957.

I simply don't know if anyone has thought through the question of the UK's future place in the world. I've no desire for us to be Singapore-on-Thames, a low-tax low-regulation service-based economy primarily for the billionaires of the world. "Global Britain" is a concept I get and it's not without its attractions - treating all the world's people and goods the same is an interesting concept but it assumes or presumes a pre-disposition to an internationalist mentality which I'm not sure I see in parts of the UK.

If anything, leaving the EU has strengthened the notions of individuality, insularity and protectionism. In a time of rapid technological change, it's always easy to fall back to cultural and historical roots emphasising notions of identity and uniqueness and all over the world, from Norway to North America, political movements playing on cultural nationalism are doing well.

We come back then to how who we were influences who we are and reflects who we want to be. The desire to trade freely with Russia, China, India and Brazil, to name but four, doesn't mean we accept their political mores but then it comes down to the notion their money is as good as anyone else's. Perhaps it's also the recognition that the thinking which has prevailed since 1918 that western liberal democratic values are the best and should be the example for all nations is changing to a recognition that what works best for us may not be the answer everywhere.

Redefining these relationships redefines other priorities as well. Take out the ideology for example and what prevents us enjoying a different and less adversarial relationship with Russia or China? I don't know but this is the kind of thinking we need to be doing for the 2030s, 2040s and beyond yet our horizons now seem to be the end of the month.

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

contrarian said:

SouthamObserver said:

alex_ said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DougSeal said:

malcolmg said:

Razedabode said:

I cant believe we're talking about a no deal at this point..but has anyone considered the impact this has on Ireland? Let alone the impact on the UK - but Ireland becomes a market at the fringe of the EU, having to use land through the UK for export (albeit it can use the new ferry route - which doubles the journey time and lacks capacity)

They will soon build up the capacity and the new jobs that go with it.

The issue is not capacity it’s a 28 hour journey time as opposed to a 13 hour one. The former is too long for many agricultural products and in winter the crossing is even longer. Even capacity takes time.

The 28 hour journey will be quicker than the upcoming 2 day delay at British ports. Perhaps Stena will reroute from Holyhead to Caen or Brest?

2 days is conservative. There are regular 20 hour plus delays at border crossings where the throughput of vehicles is far lower and isn't complicated by a sea crossing.

Don't worry though. Vehicles won't be sent as their operators and drivers cannot afford to be stuck for that length of time. So import / export will largely stop.

Well that's what the cabinet office, hauliers, exporters, manufacturers, suppliers, ports are all warning with detailed evidence to validate their warnings. All are wrong says Philip because what he knows.

We sure Philip isn't an anarchist?

It's been five years of talking now. I'd prefer a deal where the EU gives us what we want, like any other independent country, but if that's not available we will just have to make World Trade terms work as well as we can.

But I get the distinct impression some of you would be more disappointed by me being right and the UK coping just fine out of the Single Market, albeit with some disruption at first, than with you being right and it being an unmitigated disaster.

Negotiation is about give and take not getting everything you ask for. No other country has got everything it wanted from the EU. We are not exceptional. There is no cake and eat it option.

Because all the evidence from independent sources suggests we are right and you are wrong. Only when that is proved can this country start healing from the sickness your kind has led it to. People will die because of No Deal. Own it.

I'm prepared to "own it". Let's get on with it and see. It's time to open the box and see if the Brexit No Deal cat is alive or dead.

Are you prepared to "own it" if I'm right? Are you prepared for the country to have the opportunity to find out if I and others like me are right?

Are you prepared to "own it" in any other sense than an unidentified troll on the Internet, though? If so, how?

I'm not a troll, I'm just a person who enjoys discussing politics same as everyone else here.

I'm young, I'm sure my job opportunities for forthcoming decades will be affected if I'm wrong. We will see.

In other words, all this crap about "owning it" amounts to nothing more than that you're going to suffer the same consequences as the rest of us?

We're all "owning it" in that sense ...

Yes it is called democracy. Is that concept so alien to you?

When we integrated into the EU for decades against the wishes of many in this nation, when the Lisbon Treaty was passed without a referendum against the wishes of most of the country and in violation of the then governments manifesto commitment not to ratify without one ... We all collectively owned it then too.

When my side next loses a vote then we will collectively have to accept that too. But we won this one so suck it up, buttercup.

All of us Brits can enjoy the fact we have a government that has, as a matter of policy, decided we should enjoy less freedom and be second class citizens in our own country. I imagine it's what you voted for, Phil, but I am not sure it's what others did.

We have more freedom in some ways than we did, less than we did in other ways. That's politics. But we have more freedom in the most important way in a democracy - we can directly elect those who make our laws going forwards. We are taking back control of those who voted for our laws and that is the catchphrase that won 52% of the vote at the referendum in case you have forgotten. Win a future election and you can change the policies in the future.

As individuals we have far less freedom in our own shores than Irish citizens who live here. British citizens, as individuals, have far less freedom than before. So we are second class. As a follower of Ayn Rand surely you must chafe at the loss of individual freedom at the expense of the state getting theoretically getting more (freedom it can’t even exercise de facto)?

Name one freedom we have lost domestically please, within our own shores.

Not to have to pay UK VAT AND a £16 handling fee to the Post Office whenever I buy something from an European shop by mail order.

That's not a freedom. Taxes need to be paid on imports, that isn't new. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Imports aren't from within our own shores either, that's kind of the point.

I am enjoying you denying people the right to define what freedoms they have. As you have taken on that role, clearly it will be impossible for anyone to identify a freedom they have lost.

The claim was within these shores. Imports aren't within these shores by definition.

Name any freedom within these shores, not involving overseas that we have lost. I am not denying for a second that we have lost what some might term freedoms when it comes to dealing with abroad.

Imports are within these shores by definition. They come from abroad and end up here.

I am not interested in your semantics. I am interested in the multiple freedoms I have lost as an individual and as a business owner. As a UK-based employer I have lost the freedom to recruit from the talent pool that was previously available, while also losing the freedom to sell my goods and services into an important market. As an individual, I have lost the freedom to work, study and travel in 30 countries that I had previously.

I understand totally that this does not bother you.

Yes stuff relating to abroad that were debated in 2016, not disputing that.

So you're not denying that the citizens of the UK are experiencing significant reductions in their personal freedoms that they used to enjoy and expect as of right? Just we voted for it apparently, so no biggie.

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI - the BDI - has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."

Boris Johnson, 26th June, 2016, the weekend after the referendum. It turns out that what he meant was: "Some British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down." And that there would not be free trade, while access to the single market would be significantly reduced.

For the vast majority of ordinary people in Britain, there was zero prospect of them or their kin ever working in the European Union. Zero prospect of them buying property in Europe. Many could not afford travel in Europe, either, or study. Either in or out of the EU.

All those Glaswegians holidaying in Spain must have been doing it outside the EU.

Useless fact: I've never been to Spain proper, if you define it as the mainland where they speak Spanish. Been to the Canary Islands a few times when I was very young on family holidays, and I've been to Barcelona for 3 days about 10 years ago. That's all.

Access to the costas was never a matter of being inside or outside the EU.

The advantages of being in the EU were Boltholes for the wealthy, gravy train appointments in Brussels or work experience for Jocasta and Tarquin.

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1335585076441194497

"People must feel free to demonstrate their abhorence of racism in their own way."

Classic.

I wonder what way those booing Millwall fans will choose?

Bet it's quite subtle.

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

If you think Smith’s Rhodesia was socialist then I have no hope for you. For someone that spends seemingly every minute of every day on a politics board one would have thought that you’d have some idea.

Smith's Rhodesia was relatively economically successful. It was racially flawed not economically.

Mugabe OTOH was a socialist and the country collapsed economically after embracing socialism.

Oops.

Ian Smith's Rhodesia as a beacon of economic enlightenment, wow!

As you have indicated a relativity between the two regimes, maybe you have a point. However, you are simply comparing something very nasty with something even nastier.

I didn't pick Rhodesia and I never said it was enlightened in any way. It was a nasty and unpleasant place but absolutely first and foremost because of race not economics. It is more comparable to apartheid South Africa.

The UK is not going to enter a period of racial apartheid.

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

Also small and unimportant countries, unlike Blighty. The better comparison would be with an island monarchy of considerable standing on the world stage. 17th century Japan.

Indeed. Japan really should apply to become a Chinese province.

What's not to like? 'free movement' in all of China, enormous tariff free market for Japan's fantastic products. Single currency. A say in what happens. Part of an enormous bloc in trade negotiations elsewhere. Guaranteed peace - no more overrunning Manchuria!

I wonder why they don't?

NEW THREAD

ydoethur said:

eek said:

justin124 said:

Gallowgate said:

Boris is so untrusted that all such a TV broadcast would do is further cement divisions in the country. Half will believe it, half will think it's dross.

God help us.

Starmer's reply the next day would be interesting too!

It wouldn’t be difficult to write

Boris failed to negotiate what he said was the easiest deal in history

Turned out his oven ready deal wasn’t even half baked.

Johnson will have to work out how to use a microwave.

alex_ said:

How does being home to the World's second largest financial market and home to some of the top universities in the World protect us from economic and societal collapse? Fair point that it might challenge the idea that we could do so in an 'isolated' fashion.

It doesn't, if we choose the wrong political system. We start off in a much better position than many of the examples cited though, I would argue.

But you are correct, it could happen.

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1335585076441194497

Racists seem to get really het up about the subservience thing. It seems to drive them into a rage.

It's pretty much only them who see the kneeling action as being subservient.

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

contrarian said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

Also small and unimportant countries, unlike Blighty. The better comparison would be with an island monarchy of considerable standing on the world stage. 17th century Japan.

Indeed. Japan really should apply to become a Chinese province.

What's not to like? 'free movement' in all of China, enormous tariff free market for Japan's fantastic products. Single currency. A say in what happens. Part of an enormous bloc in trade negotiations elsewhere. Guaranteed peace - no more overrunning Manchuria!

I wonder why they don't?

What constitutional similarities do you see between the EU and the People’s Republic of China?

A gigantic unelected bureaucracy.

Nominated president?

Alistair said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1335585076441194497

Racists seem to get really het up about the subservience thing. It seems to drive them into a rage.

It's pretty much only them who see the kneeling action as being subservient.

So the BLM people would be perfectly happy if the kneeling were replaced by another gesture to show solidarity. Such as Jazz hands or a Morris Dance.

Theuniondivvie said:

Another twattish snowflake melted by a tv programme.

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenUK/status/1335561161991970817?s=20

His twitter account appears to be a mess of abusive anti lockdown, anti vaxxing, anti Soros, anti BLM, anti EU, pro Trump ranting. What are the chances of these disparate views being held by one person?!!!

Much higher in a world where one can make decent money by having extreme opinions on twatter.

gealbhan said:

nico679 said:

The governments obsession with sovereignty even when all deals mean you have to give some of that away will be the reason if this ends up with no deal .

This purety test on sovereignty seems to be elevated when it comes to the EU fueled by a section of the media and Tory MPs who have spent decades building the EU up as an enemy not a partner .

So any compromises with the EU are bad but okay with say the USA . Bozo never bothered to push a narrative of compromises needed to get a good deal that protects the economy , most people understand the need for compromise but this is now heresy amongst sections of the media and the ERG who won’t be happy unless the UK becomes an isolated rock .

The Tories have spent the last 4 years working solely on what’s good for them and their internal psychodramas over the EU and Bozo will do what’s good for him and fuck the rest of the country .

And the foot v heath sovereignty debate, posted so often here it’s almost PB Meme, still fresh as ever as Foot represents today’s brexiteers well on sovereignty?

But when Heath says to foot you don’t know what sovereignty is, it’s not something you keep locked in the cellar and look at time to time, it’s currency you spend for security, trade agreements, empower your citizens when they are out the country etc, who thinks he is basically right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuZrzwm6CJs

Not me. It fundamentally misunderstands the concept of sovereignty

If we're being stage-managed into accepting a (flawed) fta in preference to no fta, a brief look at PB would seem to indicate it's working.

contrarian said:

Alistair said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1335585076441194497

Racists seem to get really het up about the subservience thing. It seems to drive them into a rage.

It's pretty much only them who see the kneeling action as being subservient.

So the BLM people would be perfectly happy if the kneeling were replaced by another gesture to show solidarity. Such as Jazz hands or a Morris Dance.

https://twitter.com/lord_lucan83/status/1335595610217570306

malcolmg said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

contrarian said:

rcs1000 said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DougSeal said:

contrarian said:

alex_ said:

I don't completely understand why the possibility that the UK could suffer a total economic and societal breakdown is rarely considered. Why shouldn't it? We are cutting ourselves off and isolating ourselves from the world. Many of the integrated systems which formerly helped to prevent such things (by creating interdependence between countries and their neighbours) are being severed. There are plenty of examples of countries completely collapsing whilst surrounded by countries surviving relatively unscathed.

Why couldn't it happen here?

Give us such an example, then, as there are many.

Albania, Cambodia, North Korea, Rhodesia, Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba...

Countries that embraced socialism/communism.

Let's not do that then.

Yes it was sad that Cambodia threw away the world's second largest financial market, and Cuba lost all those universities in the world's top 10.

The Khmer Rouge took over in Cambodia in 1975.

I'm struggling to find any Cambodian financial market in 1974 (or 1970) that was even in the top ten world markets.

Could you enlighten me please?

I was trying to make the point that all of the examples given of countries that collapsed socially and economically are glaringly extremely different to 21st century Britain.

Yes, it’s a good job we’re not like Venezuela who only have vast oil reserves.

Venezuela have vast reserves of hydrocarbons the consistency of shoe polish. Fine when oil is well north of $100. Much less though, and those vast reserves might as well be shoe polish.

The UK has vast reserves of tidal energy.

Nearly all in Scotland unfortunately for you

The Severn Estuary is in Scotland?

Not only the wannabe Yanks getting imperialist....